| Saturday,
July 22, 2006 The Grave of the Hundred Head
http://wargames.co.uk/Poems/Grave.htm
Might that have been preferable to destroying the government of
Lebanon?
Many have said when I suggested taking 100 hostages in the local area
from which the attacks came might be preferable to bombing Beirut, dropping
leaflets on villages telling people to flee and then attacking the
automobiles carrying the fleeing refugee families, and essentially
destroying the Cedar Revolution, "What if that didn't work? The couldn't
just execute the new hostages."
Do perhaps a Grave of the Hundred Head?
Has anyone a scenario in which the world is better off when this is over
than it would have been had Israel offered to work with the Lebanese
government, and confined their response to the southern region from which
the attacks came?
That is, a realistic scenario. Not one in which Hizbollah sees the light
and lays down its arms, which is a bit like the scenario in which Chalabi
rides into Baghdad on American tanks and is welcomed as the people cheer
their new leader.
==============
I have a long letter from my old friend and fellow author Joel Rosenberg.
I sent him some questions and he's preparing an answer. I'll post the
exchange when that arrives.
==============
Jerry,
I have to disagree with you.
"People keep asking me what I would have done
given the kidnapping of the two Israeli soldiers.
Sending in a Commando force to round up 100
young Muslim males and bring them back to Israel, treating them like POW's
complete with Red Cross inspection, and offering to trade sounds about right
to me. That should be enough to discourage future such efforts: sure, we'll
negotiate. Hand over your wallet. Now, just how much did you say I owe you?
It would also have the approval of nearly everyone not Hizbollah including
the Christians and Druze, and probably the Sunni as well."
The Hizbollah response would be well distributed
videos of two Israeli soldiers being messily beheaded. Then it's Israel's
turn.
I don't think that is a good idea.
Geoff
Who hasn't got a cheap or easy suggestion, but as a
former soldier I want my country to come save my ass.
No government that wants to keep the loyalty of its soldiers can afford
not to be seen making a response; but no intelligence officer with any
brains considers those young soldiers anything but dead. They were dead the
moment they were captured. Technically they may be alive, but the chances
that they will ever be turned loose alive are very small.
Many years ago the Lebanese insurgents (I forget precisely which group of
them) kidnapped the American station chief in Beirut, (http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/target/etc/cron.html
) and a Soviet Diplomat who may or may not have been an intelligence
officer. The US protested vigorously for months. Eventually Mr. Buckley was
killed in rather gruesome way, having been tortured.
The KGB operated differently. Their agents determined which faction had
done the kidnapping. KGB secret operatives then kidnapped about 20 Lebanese
relatives of the leaders of that faction. They began cutting off finger
joints and other non-essential parts of their hostages. A week later, their
diplomat was released unharmed.
Asked why we had not done the same thing, the US response was dismay and
horror. Of course we could do no such thing. We did contemplate bombarding
the city of Beirut, destroying harbors, blowing up infrastructure. The
strategy discussion didn't last long. Undermining the effectiveness of the
Lebanese government was not in our interest. More to the point, none of that
would get Buckley back. Indeed, the faction that engineered the kidnapping
was opposed to the Lebanese government and wanted it destroyed: we would be
doing their work for them. The only reason their demand for Buckley's
release did not include that we bombard Beirut was -- well, actually, we
couldn't think of a reason why they did not make that demand.
Of course Hizbollah would respond by killing the hostages with videos; or
at least that's a distinct possibility. But bombing Lebanon's airports and
seaports, and telling people to leave their village then bombing the refugee
convoys, isn't going to get them released either, or at least that is a very
low probability event.
Indeed, Hizbollah probably prayed that Israel would issue evacuation
orders to a village, then kill the fleeing refugees. Could Allah send a more
useful event?
Geoff, you don't have an easy or cheap suggestion because there aren't
any. No one wants to lose comrades. But were it my decision, I would confine
my responses to those likely to have been involved in the kidnappings, or
likely to be relatives and tribesmen of those involved in the kidnappings.
Bombing a city 40 miles to the north doesn't even make you feel good
afterwards, and you know it. Bombing a refugee car caravan certainly doesn't
make you feel good afterwards, and you know it.
I repeat: The Grave of the Hundred Head
http://wargames.co.uk/Poems/Grave.htm
Might that have been preferable to destroying the government of
Lebanon?
My point being that if the Grave of the Hundred Head is over the top, it
is at least confined to the area where the action took place, and sends the
message "Don't let them use your area as a base." Bombing Lebanon airport
and the rest has produced more casualties, including refugees, and send the
message "It doesn't matter what you do. We are going to destroy Lebanon, and
to Hell with your Cedar Revolution."
The question to ask is "And how well is that working?"
My action: go take 100 young men from the area where the Hisbollah
attacks originated, then offer to negotiate, is less extreme than the grave
of the hundred head. As to what to do when Hisbollah executes the Israel
soldiers, one confines them to POW camps for the duration of the war. And
next time, another hundred young men from the area go into POW camps. And so
forth. It's more expensive than bombing the airport, but it doesn't weaken
the Lebanese government's capability to subdue Hizbollah either. Or build
the grave of the hundred head.
For they swore by the Holy Water,
They swore by the salt they ate,
That the soul of Lieutenant Eshmitt Sahib
Should go to his God in state,
With fifty file of Burmans
To open him Heaven's Gate.
Monday the lead in mail will be a lengthy exchange of views between me
and Joel Rosenberg.
==================
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