| Thursday,
July 20, 2006
Monty on Death Squads
Subj: Dealing with death squads
Jerry Pournelle asked:
> And if the
constabulary are death squads for one faction?
Politics, Selection, Organization, Training,
Discipline and Justice.
Politics: Convince the important community leaders
that having death squads running around will work against their interests.
Selection: Try to keep the death-squad-inclined people
out of the constabulary.
Organization: Mix the factions when you form units, to
make the death squads' security problems harder. This is harder for police,
who are generally recruited locally, than for the army, recruited
nationally.
Training: Teach the marginal constables -- who, though
not inclined to join death squads themselves, might be inclined to look the
other way -- why looking the other way is a Bad Idea.
Discipline and Justice: Find and suppress the death
squads that form anyway, by classic "Internal Affairs" police work.
http://www.strategypage.com/dls/articles/200672002934.asp
The Next Crucial Battle of the War
Like all things in War, it's very simple and very,
very hard.
And like all things in Iraq, the Iraqis have to do
most of it themselves. Which takes time, which must be paid for with blood
and treasure.
Rod Montgomery==monty@sprintmail.com
If we can convince the leaders not to kill
their enemies we won't have to convince the leaders that killing their
enemies is a bad idea. Like the economist on how to get out of a well:
Assume a ladder.
We agree that this will take time, blood,
and treasure. Need it be ours? Are we the only ones who know how to do this?
Worse, do we know how to do it at all? Were I convinced that American
government and rule of law are exportable commodities I'd be out front in
trying to export them. The essence of paleo conservative belief is that good
government is rare, not easily installed through schemes of social
improvement, fragile, and not likely to be exported: and we point to the
Constitution of the United States of Venezuela copied from the US
Constitution circa 1830 amid a perfect flurry of congratulations.
=============
From another
Conference, and well worth your attention:
Subject: Meme 071: A virtues approach to personality
Meme 071: A virtues approach to personality An article
by Michael Cawley, James Martin, and John Johnson sent 6.7.20
Notes from me [Frank]:
The article (unhappily written in the required jargon,
which is worse in psychology than anywhere else) starts a re-incorporation
of virtue into the study of personality. Virtue unnecessarily was kicked out
of philosophy with the undermining of Christianity. What was left are
utilitarian theories and deontological theories of duties and rights.
Utilitarianism appeals for those whose want to do good, deontological
theories to those who want to do the good thing, and virtue theories to
those who want to *be* good.
Each of these theories get at emotions, and emotions
are separately evolved. One cannot satisfying them all at once, but any
meta-ethical theory that reduces the other two to one of them (say that
virtuous people will always do good and do the good thing), no matter how
ingeniously constructed, will fail to be satisfying on an emotional level.
Any concept that so fails will be resisted by intellectual arguments, with
increasing complexity and ingenuity. (This is one reason why philosophy gets
ever more intricate, another being to give jobs to philosophers.) We know
this is so from the studies of Antonio Damasio on the interconnectedness of
thinking and feeling in the brain and the fact that emotions evolve
separately and not solely to provide philosophical coherence.
As you will be reading, Gordon Allport (a leading
AntiRacist, by the way) replaced older notions of character with
"personality," with morally evaluative notions deliberately discarded. (The
authors of the paper instant use the term both in this narrow sense and in
their grander sense, in which virtues can be reintroduced into personality
studies. This removal of virtue was continued by Kohlberg and his famous
stages of development. It is not that virtue was even completely erased,
though, just narrowed. This reached in culmination in J.R. Rest's "Defining
Issues Test," where the only virtues are tolerance and openness to
experience. (Recall that Francis Fukuyama said in passing in _The End of
History and the Last Man_ that the chief virtues of "liberal democracies"
are compassion and tolerance.)
The authors state, "As Kohlberg's critics have noted,
the enthronement of openness and tolerance as the only virtues of modern
moral developmental theory has led to a situation where moral psychology is
dominated by situation ethics and moral relativism."
The authors use factor analysis to discern four major
virtues: empathy, order, resourcefulness, and serenity. The problem is that
the questions asked of subjects upon which the factors pop out can seriously
endanger the results. To their shame, they never did consider the Seven
Cardinal Virtues compiled by Christians: the classical ones of courage,
prudence, justice, and temperance, plus the theological ones of faith, hope,
and charity. Virtue began to be reintroduced into philosophy half a century
ago, meaning that not everything about Christian *traditions*, as they
evolved in Europe (like nearly everyone else, I know little about Byzantium
but would be eager to know about the differences in gene-culture
co-evolution).
Hooray for their efforts, which would have been even
better had they reached back to specifically look for the Seven Cardinal
Virtues and whether new ones have been added since. The Greeks had four, the
Christians an additional seven. What new ones will evolve (indeed which ones
might be designed) in the future world of designer children?
Frank Forman [name used with permission]
----------------
Michael J. Cawley, III, James E. Martin and
John A. Johnson: A virtues approach to personality Personality and
Individual Differences Volume 28, Issue 5 , 1 May 2000, Pages 997-1013
doi:10.1016/S0191-8869(99)00207-X
[Thanks to John Johnson for calling my
attention to this most important article. I can supply the PDF.]
Michael J. Cawley, III, James E. Martin and
John A. Johnson^ ^Corresponding Author Contact Information Department of
Psychology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
Received 29 July 1998; revised 15 April 1999; accepted 20 September 1999.
Available online 14 February 2000.
*1 This article is based on a doctoral
dissertation written by the first author and supervised by the other
authors. A paper based on this research was presented by the first and
second authors at the Juris Draguns Personality Symposium, Pennsylvania
State University, University Park, PA, July 14, 1997.
^Corresponding Author Contact Information
Corresponding author. Present address: Penn State Dubois, College Place,
DuBois, PA 15801, USA. Tel.: +1-814-375-4700; fax: +1-814-375-4784
Abstract
The structure of virtue was investigated
through the development and construct validation of the Virtues Scale (VS),
a 140-item self-report measure of virtues. A factor analysis of responses
from 390 participants revealed four factors: Empathy, Order,
Resourcefulness, and Serenity. Four virtue subscales constructed from the
highest loading items on each factor were correlated with the Revised NEO
Personality Inventory (NEO PI-R) scales in two additional samples (ns=181
and 143). One of these samples also completed the DIT measure of Kohlbergian
moral development. Meaningful, replicated correlations between the virtue
subscales and personality scales and complete lack of relationships between
the virtues scales and the DIT indicate that virtue is a function of
personality rather than moral reasoning and cognitive development. <snip>
I recall debating the Allport hypotheses
in graduate school. One problem is that not one statistician in twenty
understands the complex mathematical assumptions in that arcane branch
called factor analysis.
Those interested in the virtues might
begin with
http://www.secondexodus.com/html/catholicdefinitions/cardinalvirtues.htm
=============
Subject: Luttwak on Iran.
http://www.cato-unbound.org/2006/07/18/edward-n-luttwak
/before-bombing-a-three-year-plan-for-iran/
---- Roland Dobbins
===========
Subject: The Emperor is not ordering out the Legions!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/
article/2006/07/18/AR2006071801373.html
"At a moment when his conservative coalition is
already under strain over domestic policy, President Bush is facing a new
and swiftly building backlash on the right over his handling of foreign
affairs.
Conservative intellectuals and commentators who once
lauded Bush for what they saw as a willingness to aggressively confront
threats and advance U.S. interests said in interviews that they perceive
timidity and confusion about long-standing problems including Iran and North
Korea, as well as urgent new ones such as the latest crisis between Israel
and Hezbollah."
And we all know what happens when the praetorian guard
becomes unhappy, don't we? I do find it interesting that they seem unable to
assimilate the concept that the United States does not have infinite
resources...
--Catfish N. Cod
===========
Subject: Video you ought to see
Hey everyone
You have GOT to see this video. It's a video
explanation for new mini-game that's going to be included with a brand new
computer game. Either google for it or use bittorrent (www.azureus.com)
to download it straight from me. The file is 169_portal_071806_hd.zip. It's
also available at www.fileshack.com
but I don't have a direct link to it.
The concept is very cool, and this is only a mini-game
included with another full game. I might buy the full game just to get this.
It uses the latest shooter game graphics and technology to enable a puzzle
solving sort of thing that rivals the leadership laboratories the US
military uses during officer training in terms of having to think creatively
to solve puzzles under stress.
If you have bittorrent, get it straight from me here:
http://flyingpigs.dyndns.org:6969/
Don't wait too long to get it from me because we have
a scheduled power outage sometime tomorrow... I'll start sharing it again
when I get back from work though.
Sean
Fair warning: I have not seen this at all.
I post it because the source is a long time subscriber and correspondent.
=============
Subject: Phishing Has Gone High
Class
Just received a notice from "The Internal Revenue"
service stating that
"The Internal Revenue Service Antifraud Comission has
found 3 fraud attempts regarding your bank account. Someone enrolled your
credit card to our Electronic Pay System - EFTPS - and tried to pay some
taxes. Due to these attempts, some of your money were lost and your
remaining founds were blocked. We are sorry for this inconvenience but this
is the standard procedure in order to try to recover your lost money.
Although, you may unblock your founds, if needed it, by accessing our
webpage through the link provided here. Once again, we are sorry for this
inconvenience, and we will do our best to recover your money."
The sender email was a "com" not a "gov" and the text
has the usual slightly skewed phrasing and grammar. Interestingly they seem
to have put their phishing message inside a donut made from a real IRS web
page, as the normal IRS buttons seem to work properly...
I didn't try their convenient link "provided here"
Charles Brumbelow
===============
Subject: Interesting Lack of Reporting
Isn't it interesting that the mainstream media are
apparently silent on Dr. Wegman's report? With the Congressional hearings
being held yesterday, you would think there would be SOME mention of the
findings. But no, this was all I could find on MSNBC this morning. Nothing
on CNN or Washingtonpost.com, either.
It is enough to make one believe in conspiracy
theories. 8-)
God bless,
Lee
<http://www.msnbc.msn.com/images/MSNBC/msnbc_ban.gif>
MSNBC.com
Astonishing!
============
Subject: "Suppose a coalition of
Crips and Bloods kidnaps two Beverly Hills policemen"
Don't forget to work
into that theoretical analogy the
Crips and Bloods killing hundreds of people in Beverly Hills over the years
by wrapping themselves in bombs filled with nails and shrapnel dipped in
anti-coagulant rat poison and walking into cafeterias, buses, and wedding
celebrations.
You could also include them launching rockets into the
city, blowing up a city hall (embassy), or killing 240 policemen (Marines)
as they slept in their quarters.
This war didn't start last week.
Tom Brosz
Sure. Pile it all in. The question is,
would this be (1) the ethical thing for Beverly Hills to do, and (2) would
it be effective. You have not said.
=============
Tut's gem hints at space impact
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/5196362.stm
-- Roland Dobbins
============
The Tribal Way of War.
http://www.opinionjournal.com/la/?id=110008674
-- Roland Dobbins
Forget Karl von Clausewitz's
dictum that war is a last resort and circumscribed by the methodical
actions and requirements of a state and its army. Forget Hugo Grotius's
notion that war should be circumscribed by a law of nations. As the
authors remind us, paraphrasing the anthropologist Harry Turney-High:
"Tribal and clan chieftains did not employ war as a cold-blooded and
calculated policy instrument. . . . Rather, it was fought for a host of
social-psychological purposes and desires, which included . . . honor,
glory, revenge, vengeance, and vendetta." With such motives, torture and
beheadings become part of the normal ritual of war.
=============
And exchange on space travel:
Subject: Spaceflight: another view
In my view spaceflight is an extension of flight
through the air, and given the decline in personal aviation in the last
twenty years or so it seems that getting people in the air first is a more
prudent policy. When a modest percentage of the population can fly a light
aircraft then we should worry about further manned space programs.
I lived in Wichita, KS for several years. I was
astonished to discover that in this so-called "Air Capital" , very few
people flew or had any real desire to. Workers at Cessna, and Raytheon
(Beech) were, like their counterparts at Boeing and Bombardier, highly
likely to never have been up in an airplane in their lives, and a good many
were quick to say that they "knew how those things were built, they weren't
getting up in those death traps." Young people in particular, held flying in
contempt. Those with mechanical aptitude were more interested in building
lowriders and joining the Latino Dreams Car Club (even if they weren't
"Latino") or chopped Harleys, than in anything that flew.
If one were to go to Detroit and find that most
autoworkers didn't have a driver's license and preferred riding the bus or a
horse to work, one would be astonished. And one wouldn't expect them to
openly consider the product that fed them and their families a "deathtrap".
Various theories have been advanced for this, such as
the idea that the workers adopt this attitude because flying is unaffordable
to them. Seeing the frequency with which they bought dually pickups,
Harleys, Jet-Skis and the like and the fact both Cessna and Raytheon had
excellent flying club programs, I say phooey.
Keith
=
You can buy a ticket for air travel
from many sources. Where do I buy my ticket to the Moon?
=
You missed out. When I was a kid Pan Am was giving
them away.
Of course, they did go out of business, but there is
not much to do up there just now anyway.
If you just want to walk on the Moon for, well. the
hell of it, I bet you could pull it off for about $500 million-cold hard
cash, and accepting a little risk. Considering NASA spent over a billion
dollars on each of the Apollo Saturn V launches-including 8, 10 and 13- and
the dollar has been radically devaluated since 1970 (the price of my Saturn
bought a new Ferrari and a Chevy truck to shag parts for it then) I'd call
it good.
The bottom line is, as I see it:
1. Mars is as far as we are going to get with chemical
rocketry, on a manned mission, and currently imaginable nuclear propulsion
schemes are not radically better. And Mars is going to be a hell of a big
mission-several times the magnitude of Apollo.
2. The United States is trillions of dollars in debt,
and Russia is a corrupt, backward and drunken mess. China is growing
massively, but largely at the expense of the West, whose shortsighted
businesspeople and their government pegboys have rigged the system to divert
Western technology and capital there. When the West-especially the
US-implodes, its growth will throttleback spectacularly.
3. Manned spaceflight should be left, for now, to the
military and to wealthy hobbyists. There are many individuals who could
write a moonflight-sized check, and since the very wealthy are getting more
very wealthy whilst the middle class is being attenuated, this should make
even more likely the probablilty a Bill Gates or Larry Ellison will simply
write a check.
4. Getting people in the air on a personal basis is
the necessary evolutionary step for two reasons. One is obvious, sort of. As
the skies get more crowded personal aircraft will have to fly higher and as
a practical matter faster. The technologies of life support, navigation,
etc. will be developed and commoditized. The gyro set from a Segway can be
used to make an INS better than the Carousel IV for a few hundred dollars-in
some quantity, Cabin pressurization will go over to sealed spacecraft type
systems because it's actually more efficient than bleed air. Pressure suits
will become affordable. Pretty soon-thirty or forty years- buildng an
orbital vehicle will be mostly off the shelf stuff at hot-rod-car prices.
The second is distasteful to most perhaps but no less
true: Aviation is a great Darwinizer. The stupid and the reckless, people
one can't have in spaceflight, will tend to be weeded. Motorcycles, scuba
diving and other sports do this now, of course.
And finally the fifth: Supposing that during WWII the
decision was made that the US had to put a man on the moon and get him back,
as soon as possible and at any cost. Had a Manhattan Project like operation
been launched in 1943, and each succeeding administration proceeded with
100% commitment, how much sooner would the US have done it, and at what
multiple of the eventual Apollo cost? My guess-1963, and ten times.
My conclusion: Get out of civilian manned spaceflight,
let the military pursue it as needed and under strict congressional control,
and private space ops will take place in their own good time.
Keith Carlsen
Certainly NASA has set back systematic
development. We could have used Apollo to build a von Braun Wheel, learn
on-orbit assembly, and build infrastructure in space. We didn't.
I will agree that huge contracts aren't
needed. On the other hand, I will defend funding X projects. One such would
be SSX, a 600,000 pound GLOW ship (DC/X was a scale model of what we
proposed in 1988). That would identify the problems needed for that kind of
reusable ship, and show the feasibility -- or lack of feasibility -- of VTOL
SSTO.
I would also fund an X project for an
air-launched sub-orbital ship.
Big NASA projects don't work well. We
aren't ready for a big USAF procurement contract because we don't know what
to procure.
X Projects and Prizes will work: and
prizes cost nothing if what we ask for isn't feasible.
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Vishing:
the new scam. Take Heed
