The Black September War
Thursday, December 13, 2001
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TECHNOLOGY AND SECURITY
The first question: why can the pilot turn off the transponder, and isn't there a way to fix that?
And here is why transponders can be turned off
Transponders are made to be turned off so that they don't generate a signal while the plane is on the ground. They generally have 4 positions for the power knob: Off, Standby (receive only - allow you to see when a radar signal hits you), On (replies when a radar signal hits you with your 4 digit code - Octal code, btw), and Mode C (which replies with your code and altitude). Regs call for transponders to be off or standby until as late as possible in your takeoff roll, and to be turned as soon as possible after you land. The code that is input is assigned by ATC if you are on an instrument flight plan. Some codes and blocks of codes are reserved - 1200 is for Visual Flight Rules planes such as small Cessnas and the like, 7500 is "I'm being hijacked", a block is for military use, a block is for air ambulance and lifesaving use, etc.
You have to be able to turn it off when on the ground to keep from overwhelming the system with returns from a bunch of signals in a small area. Yes, you might be able to design a system that tries to figure out if the plane is in the air, but that adds complexity and gives more to go wrong - what if it thinks it is on the ground while in the air? Remember, better is the enemy of good enough.
Edmund Hack
Thank you. I suspected it was something as simple as that. Another thing we must change now.
And a way to make transponders work as they should
Transponders: connect the power to the aircraft's "weight on the wheels" switch. A lot of stuff - like engine thrust reversers - is already tied into it. That keep the transponder ON (and Thrust Reversers OFF) in the air, and OFF on the ground. That would be simplest way; I can think of others, like tying it into the radar altimeter.
Kenneth Mitchell
That seems a good suggestion to me. Anyone know why it would not work?
Dear Dr. Pournelle,
First, the usual complements, mumbles about the (high, of course) quality of you pages, requests for commentary as well as fiction (and I *do* buy your books), etc.
Then, a contribution to the transponder discussion:
1. When an airplane is on fire, you cannot step outside. For that reason, all electrical circuits tend to be on breakers that the pilot can disable. Furthermore, there usually are master switches that let a pilot bypass recalcitrant circuit breakers. Master switches tend to be red and easy to find, even by untrained people.
2. Transponders do several things. They make the plane easier to see on radar (by broadcasting a signal that is stronger than the return echo). They broadcast a (hopefully unique) code than can be used to identify a particular airplane on a radar scope. They broadcast the altitude of the plane. It is usually convenient to be able to shut off a malfunctioning unit, since it tends to confuse controllers. An incorrect altitude is bad enough, an incorrect identifier (particularly one that, say, changes randomly due to some bug in the hypothetical software) would wreak havoc on a stormy night at a busy airport.
This is all about control. You either trust the pilots (and invent tools to make their life easier) and accept the consequences - or you don't and have the hack-proof centrally controlled computer fly the planes. And keep a dog in the cockpit to prevent anybody from reaching the override switch.
Thank you for doing what you are doing,
Andre Mel'cuk, PP-ASEL
And indeed someone does.
Just tying the Transponder_Enable input to the Weight_On_Wheels output won't quite solve our problem. I presume that the transponder has a circuit breaker in the cockpit, just as the flight-data and cockpit-voice recorders do. As a general rule, every major subsystem needs a breaker so the cockpit crew can remove power from the subsystem if something bad happens to it.
I'm very, very reluctant to make exceptions to this rule.
Maybe you could set up a separate page in the /war hierarchy to discuss the appropriate uses of technology to enhance security-- and, ideally, to improve privacy and our quality of life at the same time. I've written extensive notes on this subject, not just this week but over the last several years, as it's been a particular interest of mine.
President Bush just described the coming response as a "crusade." Wow, how literally appropriate THAT is. Let's just hope that THIS crusade doesn't lead to another thousand years of resent and violence.
. png Peter Glaskowsky
Done.
Next, a related question:
From Roland and others a practical suggestion:
I have actually received this from many sources, not all being identical suggestions.
From earlier postings: >> ... have all instrumentation output, voice and even possibly video >> (flight deck and cabin) continuosly downlinked to ground stations >> or uplinked to satellites enroute.
> 1) In addition to traditional "black boxes" there would be > transmitters in planes that would transmit flight data to a network of > ground stations > 3) Since the transmitters don't have to survive an impact they > wouldn't have to be terribly expensive so you'd be able to intall them > even on relatively small aircraft. > 6) Overseas flights might need to switch to some sort of satellite > system. This would probably be more expensive so would probably be > limited to larger aircraft.
This capability has existed since the early 1980s. It is called ACARS, which stands for Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System. I developed firmware for the Bendix system purchased by Delta, Piedmont and Northwest Orient in 1985. Those same systems (which sold for, if I recall correctly, about US$18,000) are in use today. Little, if any, of my other career work has had similar longevity: it is a (sobering) reminder of how long it takes to make improvements in commercial aviation.
You can learn more about modernization efforts, including satellite, overseas, and encryption capabilities, by surfing over to www.arinc.com and searching on the keyword ACARS.
I do not know whether the airlines are interested in using this to augment the cockpit voice recorder but it would make sense. Twenty years ago, the system was limited to 2400 baud and it was essentially used as a "time clock" for automating the process of tracking hourly air crew wages. The other two primary uses were to provide rapid turnaround on jet engine performance parameters (which reduced service costs), and to expedite bi-directional weather reporting (pilots could retrieve or file weather reports into an automated system).
The aviation industry was fun to work in back then but more recently it has been no joy at all (the last project that I participated in was ETMS, which is a USA radar tracking network whose control room is in Kendall Square, Cambridge, MA): too much bureaucracy and too much money to get far too little done. It just doesn't seem hard to me to come up with a snazzy database system to keep track of 10,000 airplanes in real-time with data, audio, and video feeds. A dot-com could've done the equivalent task on a few tens of millions of VC money in the space of 3 years, whereas the US government manages to plunder $billions and waste decades.
Pardon me for venting. But if someone wants to give it a try, perhaps for some country other than the USA, then I'll come join you on building a "real" aviation network.
-rich
The attached is meant to calm the reader. I cannot comment on its scientific accuracy or even if SFC Red Thomas really exists.... Ed Hume
[Note on authenticity:
Dr. Pournelle, Several weeks ago you published advice on how to survive a terrorist chemical attack, contained in an e-mail originally from SFC Red Thomas: http://www.jerrypournelle.com/war/security.html#Advice
Today the Washington Post has a story about him. He's the Real Deal. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A34577-2001Dec12.html
The war links aren't on the front page, or the current view and mail pages anymore, fortunately the directory ("/war/") isn't hard to remember.
Kit Case kitcase@home.com
Words of Wisdom About Gas, Germs, and Nukes By SFC Red Thomas, Armor Master Gunner
U. S. Army (Ret) 10.19.01
Since the media have decided to scare everyone with predictions of chemical, biological, or nuclear warfare on our turf I decided to write a paper and keep things in their proper perspective. I am a retired military weapons, munitions, and training expert.
Lesson number one: In the mid 1990s there was a series of nerve gas attacks on crowded Japanese subway stations. Given perfect conditions for an attack, less than 10% of the people there were injured (the injured were better in a few hours) and only one percent of the injured died. CBS-Television's 60 Minutes once had a fellow telling us that one drop of nerve gas could kill a thousand people. He didn't tell you the thousand dead people per drop was theoretical. Drill Sergeants exaggerate how terrible this stuff is to keep the recruits awake in class (I know this because I was a Drill Sergeant too).
Forget everything you've ever seen on TV, in the movies, or read in a novel about this stuff, it was all a lie (Read this sentence again out loud!). These weapons are about terror, if you remain calm, you will probably not die.
This is far less scary than the media and their "experts" make it sound. Chemical weapons are categorized as Nerve, Blood, Blister, and Incapacitating agents. Contrary to the hype of reporters and politicians, they are not weapons of mass destruction. They are means of "Area Denial," effective to keep an enemy out of a particular zone for a limited period of time: terror weapons that don't destroy anything. When you leave the area you almost always leave the risk.
That's the difference; you can leave the area and the risk. Soldiers may have to stay put and sit through it and that's why they need all that spiffy gear.
These are not gasses; they are vapors and/or airborne particles. Any such agent must be delivered in sufficient quantity to kill or injure, and that defines when and how it's used.
Every day we have a morning and evening atmospheric inversion where "stuff," suspended in the air gets pushed down. This inversion is why allergies (pollen) and air pollution are worst at these times of the day.
So, a chemical attack will have its best effect an hour of so either side of sunrise or sunset. Also, being vapors and airborne particles, the agents are heavier than air, so they will seek low places like ditches, basements and underground garages. This stuff won't work when it's freezing, it doesn't last when it's hot, and wind spreads it too thin too fast.
Attackers have to get this stuff on you, or, get you to inhale it, for it to work. They also have to get the concentration of chemicals high enough to kill or injure you: too little and it's nothing, too much and it's wasted. What I hope you've gathered by this point is that a chemical weapons attack that kills a lot of people is incredibly hard to achieve with military grade agents and equipment. So you can imagine how hard it would be for terrorists. The more you know about this stuff, the more you realize how hard it is to use.
A Case of Nerves
We'll start by talking about nerve agents. You have these in your house: plain old bug killer (like Raid) is nerve agent. All nerve agents work the same way; they are cholinesterase inhibitors that mess up the signals your nervous system uses to make your body function. It can harm you if you get it on your skin but it works best if you to inhale it. If you don't die in the first minute and you can leave the area, you're probably going to live.
The military's antidotes for all nerve agents are atropine and pralidoxime chloride. Neither one of these does anything to cure the nerve agent. They send your body into overdrive to keep you alive for five minutes. After that the agent is used up. Your best protection is fresh air and staying calm. Listed below are the symptoms for nerve agent poisoning.
Sudden headache, Dimness of vision (someone you're looking at will have pinpointed pupils), Runny nose, Excessive saliva or drooling, Difficulty breathing, Tightness in chest, Nausea, Stomach cramps, Twitching of exposed skin where a liquid just got on you.
If you are in public and you start experiencing these symptoms, first ask yourself, did anything out of the ordinary just happen, a loud pop, did someone spray something on the crowd? Are other people getting sick too? Is there an odor of new mown hay, green corn, something fruity, or camphor where it shouldn't be?
If the answer is yes, then calmly (if you panic you breathe faster and inhale more air/poison) leave the area and head upwind, or outside. Fresh air is the best "right now antidote." If you have a blob of liquid that looks like molasses or Karo syrup on you; blot it or scrape it off and away from yourself with anything disposable.
This stuff works based on your body weight: What a crop duster uses to kill bugs won't hurt you unless you stand there and breathe it in real deep, then lick the residue off the ground for while.
Remember, the attackers have to do all the work, they have to get the concentration up and keep it up for several minutes, while all you have to do is quit getting it on you and quit breathing it by putting space between yourself and the attack.
Bad Blood and Blisters
Blood agents are cyanide or arsine. They affect your blood's ability to provide oxygen to your tissues. The scenario for attack would be the same as nerve agent. Look for a pop or someone splashing or spraying something and folks around there getting woozy or falling down. The telltale smells are bitter almonds or garlic where it shouldn't be. The symptoms are blue lips, blue under the fingernails rapid breathing.
The military's antidote is amyl nitride and, just like nerve agent antidote, it just keeps your body working for five minutes till the toxins are used up. Fresh air is the your best individual chance
Blister agents (distilled mustard) are so nasty that nobody wants to even handle them, let alone use them. Blister agents are just as likely to harm the user as the target. They're almost impossible to handle safely and may have delayed effects of up to 12 hours. The attack scenario is also limited to the things you'd see from other chemicals. If you do get large, painful blisters for no apparent reason, don't pop them. If you must, don't let the liquid from the blister get on any other area: the stuff just keeps on spreading. Soap, water, sunshine, and fresh air are this stuff's enemy.
Bottom line on chemical weapons (and it's the same if they use industrial chemical spills): They are intended to make you panic, to terrorize you, to herd you like sheep to the wolves. If there is an attack, leave the area and go upwind, or to the sides of the wind stream. You're more likely to be hurt by a drunk driver on any given day than be hurt by one of these attacks. Your odds get better if you leave the area. Soap, water, time, and fresh air really deal this stuff a knock-out-punch. Don't let fear of an isolated attack rule your life. The odds are really on your side.
Up and Atom
Nuclear bombs: These are the only weapons of mass destruction on Earth. The effects of a nuclear bomb are heat, blast, EMP, and radiation. If you see a bright flash of light like the sun, where the sun isn't, fall to the ground! The heat will be over a second. Then there will be two blast waves, one out going, and one on its way back. Don't stand up to see what happened after the first wave. Wait. Everything that's going to happen will have happened in two full minutes.
Any nuclear weapons used by terrorists will be low yield devices and will not level whole cities. If you live through the heat, blast, and initial burst of radiation, you'll probably live for a very very long time. Radiation will not create fifty foot tall women, or giant ants and grasshoppers the size of tanks. These will be at the most 1 kiloton bombs; that's the equivalent of 1,000 tons of TNT.
Here's the real hazard: Flying debris and radiation will kill a lot of exposed (not all)! people within a half mile of the blast. Under perfect conditions this is about a half mile circle of death and destruction, but when it's done it's done.
EMP stands for Electro Magnetic Pulse and it will fry every electronic device for a good distance. It's impossible to say what and how far, but probably not over a couple of miles from ground zero is a good guess. Cars, cell phones, computers, ATMs, you name it, all will be out of order. There are lots of kinds of radiation, but , physically, you only need to worry about three: alpha, beta, and gamma. The others you have lived with for years.
You need to worry about "Ionizing radiation," little sub atomic particles that go whizzing along at the speed of light. They hit individual cells in your body, kill the nucleus and keep on going. That's how you get radiation poisoning: You have so many dead cells in your body that the decaying cells poison you. It's the same as people getting radiation treatments for cancer, only a bigger area gets irradiated.
The good news is you don't have to just sit there and take it, and there are lots you can do rather than panic. First, your skin will stop alpha particles, a page of a news paper or your clothing will stop beta particles. Then you just have to try and avoid inhaling dust that's contaminated with atoms that are emitting these things and you'll be generally safe from them.
Gamma rays are particles that travel like rays (quantum physics makes my brain hurt) and they create the same damage as alpha and beta particles only they keep going and kill lots of cells as they go all the way through your body. It takes a lot to stop these things, lots of dense material. On the other hand it takes a lot of this to kill you.
Your defense is as always to not panic. Basic hygiene and normal preparation are your friends. All canned or frozen food is safe to eat. The radiation poisoning will not affect plants, so fruits and vegetables are OK if there's no dust on them (Rinse them off if there is). If you don't have running water and you need to collect rain water or use water from wherever, just let it sit for thirty minutes and skim off the water gently from the top. The dust with the bad stuff in it will settle and the remaining water can be used for the toilet which will still work if you have a bucket of water to pour in the tank.
The Germs' Terms
Finally there's biological warfare. There's not much to cover here. Basic personal hygiene and sanitation will take you further than a million doctors. Wash your hands often, don't share drinks, food, sloppy kisses, etc., ...with strangers. Keep your garbage can with a tight lid on it, don't have standing water (like old buckets, ditches, or kiddy pools) laying around to allow mosquitoes breeding room.
This stuff is carried by vectors, that is bugs, rodents, and contaminated material. If biological warfare is as easy as the TV makes it sound, why has Saddam Hussein spent twenty years, millions, and millions of dollars trying to get it right? If you're clean of person and home, eat well and are active, you're going to live.
Overall preparation for any terrorist attack is the same as you'd take for a big storm. If you want a gas mask, fine, go get one. I know this stuff and I'm not getting one and I told my Mom not to bother with one either (How's that for confidence?). We have a week's worth of cash, several days worth of canned goods and plenty of soap and water. We don't leave stuff out to attract bugs or rodents so we don't have them.
These terrorist people can't conceive of a nation this big with as much resources as it has. These weapons are made to cause panic, terror, and to demoralize. If we don't run around like sheep, they won't use this stuff after they find out it's no fun and does them little good. The government is going nuts over this stuff because they have to protect every inch of America. You only have to protect yourself, and by doing that, you help the country.
Finally, there are millions of caveats to everything I wrote here and you can think up specific scenarios in which my advice wouldn't be the best. This article is supposed to help the greatest number of people under the greatest number of situations. If you don't like my work, don't nitpick, just sit down and explain chemical, nuclear, and biological warfare in a document around three pages long yourself. This is how we the people of the United States can rob these people of their most desired goal, your terror.
SFC Red Thomas (Ret) Armor Master Gunner Mesa, AZ
Unlimited reproduction and distribution is authorized. Just give me credit for my work, and, keep in context.
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