| Thursday,
March 6, 2008 Global
Cooling
Dr. Phil Chapman was born in Australia and was a South Polar Explorer
before coming to the the United States and becoming a US citizen and
astronaut. He was one of the original members of the Citizens Advisory
Council on National Space Policy which formed in 1980 to write the Space and
Defense policy papers for the incoming Reagan Administration Transition Team
(Jerry Pournelle, PhD, Chairman)
Jerry:
As straws in the wind, note that it snowed in Baghdad
in January, for the first time in a century. There is still snow in the
Australian Alps at midsummer, never before seen. The extent of the Antarctic
sea-ice last austral winter exceeded all records. These are of course mere
anecdotal evidence, not to be taken seriously.
However, the four major organizations that track the
global average temperature have now released their results for 2007. They
are the Hadley Centre in the UK (Hadley), the NASA Goddard Institute for
Space Studies (GISS), Remote Sensing Systems, Inc., in Santa Rosa, CA, (RSS)
and the Christy group at the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH). The
first three have been alarmed about GW for years, while the UAH group (which
uses satellite MSU measurements) has tended to be skeptical.
All four of these studies report an astonishing drop
in global temperature during 2007, between 0.59 and 0.75 degrees C. You can
see graphs of their data at
http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/
02/19/january-2008-4-
sources-say-globally-cooler-in-the-past-12-months/ .
This is by far the fastest change in global
temperature on record. It is probably just a blip – but if the climate
stabilizes at this level, it will have wiped out all the increase since
1920, and the whole GW thing will have gone away. Moreover, if 2008 shows
another decrease of this magnitude, we will have to consider seriously the
possibility that the 20-year transition to the next Ice Age has begun.
To paraphrase Eugene O'Neill, The Ice Age Cometh?
If this is true, the consequences are appalling. Most
of North America and all of Europe north of the Alps will be under a mile of
ice by 2030. This means that most of the advanced countries except Australia
will cease to exist. There can be little doubt that the need to survive will
trump any international norms of behavior: I would expect that Europe would
invade Africa and the US would invade Mexico, accepting genocide of the
indigenous populations as an unfortunate necessity, given the absolute need
for lebensraum.
Perhaps we could delay or stop the transition by using
nuclear explosions to release floods of methane (a much more potent
greenhouse gas than CO2) from the hydrate deposits under the Arctic
permafrost and on the continental shelves, and/or by mounting a major effort
to reduce the albedo by shoveling dirt over northern snowfields.
Unfortunately, the reputations and income of far too many influential people
now depend on the existence of the GW threat, and they will resist
recognizing the truth as long as possible. In any case, I don't expect
politicians to have the chutzpah to act before it is too late.
Until we find out whether the present cold is
transient or getting worse, the Precautionary Principle demands that we all
do our duty by guzzling as much gasoline and emitting as much CO2 and CH4 as
possible. Flatulence is now a patriotic duty.
This is of course probably just a nightmare – but I
will be watching the global temperature data this year with considerable
interest.
Phil
PS. Get well, old friend. We need you
===========
Global Warming, if real, threatens longer growing seasons in the North
Temperate Zones, at a cost of some rise in sea level. A new ice age is a
disaster without precedent. Core borings in lakes in England and Belgium
show that the area near the English Channel went from deciduous trees to
under many feet of ice in fewer than 100 years at the last Ice Age onset.
There are ways to counter warming and cooling, but they are not cheap;
and first there have to be actual scientists, as opposed to the grant
gatherers, trained seals, and headline grabbers who now pose as climate
scientists. The Peer Review process has systematically excluded publication
of any contrary opinions.
And yet it is now as it has been: the modelers see man-made global
warming. The observers have never seen it, and now when honest admit they
see cooling.
Political correctness demands that science submit to correct opinion. It
is Voodoo Science in the real sciences, not just the social sciences.
We sow the wind.
Of course this year may be a blip; but it doesn't look that way.
Discussion in mail.
JEP 0300 Sleepless in Studio City
============
0700
Sic Semper Tyrannis
George Mason recommended this as the motto of the United States. Thus
ever with tyrants. He meant their removal, but the Iron Law of Bureaucracy
decrees that it also means that tyrants shall also act as tyrants.
CA: No to homeschool
Well this sure ought to be an interesting fight. So,
if one doesn't have a teaching degree, one is not qualified to teach? Can we
say: Power of the Teacher's Union?
Sue
http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/
california/la-me-homeschool6mar06,1,4399394.story
From the Los Angeles Times
Ruling seen as a threat to many
home-schooling families
State appellate court says those who teach
children in private must have a credential. By Seema Mehta and Mitchell
Landsberg Los Angeles Times Staff Writers
March 6, 2008
Parents who lack teaching credentials
cannot educate their children at home, according to a state appellate
court ruling that is sending waves of fear through California's home
schooling families.
Advocates for the families vowed to appeal
the decision to the state Supreme Court. Enforcement until then appears
unlikely, but if the ruling stands, home-schooling supporters say
California will have the most regressive law in the nation.
"This decision is a direct hit against
every home schooler in California," said Brad Dacus, president of the
Pacific Justice Institute, which represents the Sunland Christian
School, which specializes in religious home schooling. "If the state
Supreme Court does not reverse this . . . there will be nothing to
prevent home-school witch hunts from being implemented in every corner
of the state of California."
The institute estimates there are as many
as 166,000 California students who are home schooled. State Department
of Education officials say there is no way to know the true number.
Unlike at least 30 other states, home
schooling is not specifically addressed in California law. Under the
state education code, students must be enrolled in a public or private
school, or can be taught at home by a credentialed tutor.
The California Department of Education
currently allows home schooling as long as parents file paperwork with
the state establishing themselves as small private schools, hire
credentialed tutors or enroll their children in independent study
programs run by charter or private schools or public school districts
while still teaching at home.
California does little to enforce those
provisions and insists it is the local school districts' responsibility.
In addition, state education officials say some parents home school
their children without the knowledge of any entity.
Home schoolers and government officials
have largely accepted this murky arrangement.
"This works so well, I don't see any reason
to change it," said J. Michael Smith, president of the Virginia-based
Home School Legal Defense Assn.
The appellate court ruling stems from a
case involving Lynwood parents Phillip and Mary Long, who were
repeatedly referred to the Los Angeles County Department of Children and
Family Services over various allegations, including claims of physical
abuse, involving some of their eight children.
All of the children are currently or had
been enrolled in Sunland Christian School, where they would occasionally
take tests, but were educated in their home by their mother, Phillip
Long said.
A lawyer appointed to represent two of the
Long's young children requested that the court require them to
physically attend a public or private school where adults could monitor
their well-being. A trial court disagreed, but the children's lawyer
appealed to the 2nd District Court of Appeal, which has jurisdiction
over Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties.
The appellate panel ruled that Sunland
officials' occasional monitoring of the Longs' home schooling -- with
the children taking some tests at the school -- is insufficient to
qualify as being enrolled in a private school. Since Mary Long does not
have a teaching credential, the family is violating state laws, the
ruling said.
"Parents do not have a constitutional right
to home school their children," wrote Justice H. Walter Croskey in a
Feb. 28 opinion signed by the two other members of the district court.
"Parents who fail to [comply with school enrollment laws] may be subject
to a criminal complaint against them, found guilty of an infraction, and
subject to imposition of fines or an order to complete a parent
education and counseling program."
Phillip Long said he believes the ruling
stems from hostility against Christians and vowed to appeal to the state
Supreme Court.
"I have sincerely held religious beliefs,"
he said. "Public schools conflict with that. I have to go with what my
conscience requires me."
Public schools teach such topics as
evolution, which Long said he doesn't believe in. He said his wife
spends six hours each day teaching their children reading, writing,
math, science, health, physical education, Bible and social studies.
Court papers say Mary Long's education ended at 11th grade.
It's unclear if the ruling will be
enforced, given the likely appeals. Typically, these rulings take effect
30 days after they are issued.
Other organizations that plan to get
involved include the Pacific Justice Institute, Home School Legal
Defense Assn. and the Home School Assn. of California.
Meanwhile, state Department of Education's
attorneys are reviewing the ruling.
Teachers union officials will also be
closely monitoring the appeal. A.J. Duffy, president of United Teachers
Los Angeles, said he agrees with the ruling.
"What's best for a child is to be taught by
a credentialed teacher," he said.
While many educators and officials remained
unfamiliar with the ruling Tuesday, news about it has been sweeping
websites and blogs devoted to home schooling. Organizations have been
getting tense phone calls from parents worried that they will be
targeted.
Families who home school include those
whose religious beliefs conflict with public schools and those whose
children are in the entertainment industry or have other time-consuming
activities that require them to study at an individualized pace.
Glenn and Kathleen, a Sacramento-area
couple who requested that their last name not be used for fear of
prosecution, home school their 9-year-old son Hunter because their
Christian beliefs would be contradicted in a public school setting,
Glenn said. He is troubled by the idea that his son would be exposed to
teachings about evolution, homosexuality, same-sex marriage and sex
education .
"I want to have control over what goes in
my son's head, not what's put in there by people who might be on the far
left who have their own ideas about indoctrinating kids," he said.
If the ruling takes effect, Glenn vowed to
move his family out of state. "If I can't home school my son in
California, we're going to have to end up leaving California. That's how
important it is to me."
All Power to the Teacher Unions!
The California Schools are so splendid that surely all will see the value
of having a good unionized teacher to ready their children!
=============
The Mac is driving me mad.
I have created a new "mailbox" and moved some mail into it. Now I can't
find it. I can find it to move things into it, but not ever to see them
again. This is sheer silliness. Why can't it show and let me drag stuff to
it? Why can't I ever see it? Why is Apple hiding the mail I tried to sort?
Who designed this imbecility?
====================
Here is a thought:
Subject: 1000 True Fans
Jerry, I got this off Wil Wheaton's site,
http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2008/03/1000_true_fans.php
but thought you might be interested. I like the idea of you having 1000 True
Fans (core customers as Wil says) and being set for life while the Free
Riders (Econ 101) can still get there daily dose of you.
Maybe a Super Platinum Patron that is limited to 1,000
an gives you $100.00 a year to be subscribed. In return, maybe you send out
an autographed edition of one of your books and a letter? I was thinking
phone call, but with your current speech problems, that wouldn't be cool.
But some method of special communication that would enhance the experience
of your Super Platinum Patron (TM).
Hope this finds you feeling better and better every
day.
Thank you.
Heiskell Christmas.
What might I offer that would attract 1,000 people to send me a hundred
bucks a year? Obviously fulfillment would have to be something under $20 and
not be onerous. I can promise to buy copies of my books as they come out,
sign them, and send them -- only can I really? It takes time to sign 1,000
book, and more to get Niven to sign them as well; packaging and mailing I
suppose I could let Kinko's or the UPS Store handle, or heck, hire the kids
next door.
It is worth thinking about. It's about the income BYTE used to furnish,
and I spent a good half my time doing that journalism so that I'd be able to
support my family no matter what the sales of fiction. Mr. Heinlein used to
teach us that writers are professional gamblers, and we ought to be sure to
have a base income just in case. He ran scared all his life.
Anyway, it is a thought. (and see below)
I get zapped again in a couple of hours. Obviously I can't promise even
to be around in a year, although it is beginning to look good for that and
some years to come. Sleepless nights I can endure. The headaches are better,
the joint aches are pretty well gone -- thanks to the steroids or the zaps
or both -- and the indigestion is endurable (I am taking Zantac for that).
=============
QUERY: The iPhone is loverly, but how do I carry it? Probably in my carry
bag, which is fine, but then how to use it? Jawbone? A HANDSET? Is there any
such thing as a handset so that using the iPhone like a telephone works
without my having to have my ear flash blue and look geeky? I suppose I can
get used to that, but how do most of you use iPhones?
It's beautiful, it's a pocket computer, I would like to have the PDA
features and we know that once the SDK is released there will be a flood of
really great software for it. But that was true for the iMate as well: a
great pocket computer but not much of a telephone. My little Nokia sits in
my pocket, does nothing but be a phone, but it does that well. I can use it
with one hand, holding the phone to my ear the way one holds a phone to
one's ear. With the iPhone it's buds, or doing some kind of ear thing plus
you need to hold the iPhone to dial.
I expect to get used to it all. Just a matter of time...
============
Roger Kohn, I need your email address!
=============
Aleta Jackson just sent me this picture from the first flight of the
DC/X. These were all members of the Citizens Advisory Council on National
Space Policy. The DC/X proposal was drawn up and the ship specs were framed
in the Great Hall at Chaos Manor.
That's me in the middle. The late Harry Stein is in the middle to my
right, and on my far right are Larry and Marilyn Niven.
============
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