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Monday, May 09, 2011

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Monday, May 2, 2011

I am not likely to keep up on breaking news so I don't try. A few observations:

Abbottabad is essentially the West Point of Pakistan. The War College is there, and there are many retired flag rank officers. The community is like Beverly Hills or Highland Falls. Bin Ladin's family apparently visited him there for years.

An interesting observation from the area:

Liveblogging

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/05/02/
man-unknowingly-liveblogs-bin-laden-operation/ 

"A computer programmer, startled by a helicopter clattering above his quiet Pakistani town in the early hours of the morning Monday, did what any social-media addict would do: he began sending messages to the social networking site Twitter.

With his tweets, 33-year-old Sohaib Athar, who moved to the sleepy town of Abbottabad to escape the big city, became in his own words "the guy who liveblogged the Osama raid without knowing it.""

There are interesting thoughts to be made about the implications, for national security, international relations, global telecommunications and others. The world is a very different place than it used to be. How far off of the beaten path must you be before you are not observed by someone who can reach the rest of the world?

As for getting Bin Laden, I wish I'd been involved, but I have my own task to do here in this ... delightful place.

(Serving Officer)

=====

'The coordinates of the action and sequence of events indicate that the al-Qaida fugitive may have been killed in an ISI safehouse.'

<http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/
us/Bin-Ladens-death-Hillary-Clinton-nearly-
blew-the-whistle-on-ISI-safehouse/articleshow/
8141352.cms>

--- Roland Dobbins

Of course this is India on Pakistan... NOTE that there is a photograph of bin Laden dead (probably faked).

=============

I have come down with a cold. I won't attempt to "cover" this story, but I will put up interesting views including contrarian. It appears that Pakistan sold him out, but must be given plausible deniability. The Pakistani government cut the electricity in the entire area of the city. Think a Belle Aire community in the town outside West Point, New York.

There is a Wikileak document claiming that al Qaeda has a nuclear device which they will use in retaliation. I do not expect that to happen. Bin Laden was buried at sea, but not sewn into a pigskin.

========

It's not a cold, this is full blown flu. I don't trust my head, so I won't have a lot to say here, and I retain the right to disclaim it later.

It does occur to me that President Obama is not displaying megalomania in taking full credit for the operation that killed bin Laden. He is relieving Pakistan and the ISI of any and all responsibility, taking full responsibility for the operation on himself, and naming no underlings. Given the nature of the deed, this is an act of courage, and the President ought not be derided for that. Of the millions of sympathizers for bin Laden, there will undoubtedly be a few fanatics. The actual operations team and the chain of command should be kept anonymous for the safety of their families.

There was no way the operation could be carried out without the cooperation of the Pakistani government.  This was the equivalent of Mexican Marines raiding a compound in Beverly Hills, then taking off from Santa Monica airport to go home, without any interference from either the Air Force or the local police. It seems clear to me that Pakistan was providing bin Laden with a place of refuge, and was persuaded to withdraw that and to cooperate with an operation against him. I am sure that no Pakistani wants any credit whatever for this, and I expect some Pakistani authorities to denounce the US for violating Pakistani sovereignty. It would be interesting to know what combination of stick and carrot was used to persuade Pakistan to give bin Laden up. Doubtless that will come out in time, possibly through WikiLeaks.

I have heard descriptions of the compound in Abbottabad as being no more than a hut; but I have also heard that it is valued at more than a million dollars, which is a lot of money in Pakistan, and it is not far from a major military academy. The town has a number of flag officer military retirement communities. I would be astonished if it were not in fact a fairly posh place inside; presumably there will eventually be pictures. I haven't had a chance to do a Google Earth examination of the area around Kakul Military Academy, but perhaps a reader will do that. Osama bin Laden had his family visit him in that house, and several were staying with him at the time of the operation. It wasn't a spider hole or a cave in the mountains. Abbottabad is not low rent territory. As far as I can figure, Osama's hideout was in a neighborhood equivalent to Highland Falls in New York. Of course that's mostly inference and speculation, but it's consistent with what I've heard from Russell Seitz, who has been to Abbottabad.

============

I have posted some mail.

==========

I found the house on Google Maps but it is an old picture because some of the house shown on the latest news isn't built yet.  A war criminal has been found and taken care of.

 34.169276,73.242571

 Rick Dahl

 ==============

And of course there are pictures everywhere now.

 

 

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Tuesday, May 3, 2011   

Despite getting my flu shots last Fall, I have got something indistinguishable from flu. I don't entirely trust my head.

Thoughts on Bin Laden

1. Well done. Refreshingly, Obama acted as President of the United States instead of Citizen of the World. We should all pitch in and buy him the finest cowboy hat, because

2. The mission, as articulated by the President, was clearly a flagrant breach of international law. I find it entertaining to imagine if this had happened under the previous administration, how the Bushaters would be whining about our lack of respect for the world and how this will enrage "the Arab street". The United States conducted a boots-on-the-ground military operation deep in a Muslim country, which we have proclaimed an important ally, without the knowledge or consent of that country. Pakistan has grounds to consider this an Act of War, although it won't, because

3. I believe you are right about the complicity of the Pakistani intelligence/military. Bin Laden's hideout was protected from attack by Pakistani military and police. The question, which I doubt will be adequately answered in public, is was he BEING protected. To advance a point that I have not yet heard, if Pakistan is such a stalwart ally against terrorism, why didn't the US just clue in the ISI and say "Hey, Bin Laden is sitting on your doorstep. Go nab the world's most notorious terrorist, dead or alive, and we can throw a big party (with very expensive presents) afterward." To flout Godwin's Law, if we can't rely on an "ally" to hand over the most hated US enemy since Hitler, I think it is time to reassess the alliance, which leads to

4. The fact that now that the US has Bin Laden's scalp, I think it gives some flexibility in terms of diplomatic and military options in the area. By the same token that anything less than capturing or killing Bin Laden would have been seen as at least a partial failure, actually killing Bin Laden in a targeted military operation is at least a partial success. I believe that in the long term, the most important benefit to the US from the death of Bin Laden is the opportunity to improve ties with India. Pakistan has proved itself at best a halfhearted ally of the US, and appears to some degree involved in collusion with our bitter foes. Pakistan also shares a border and some ties, including military ones, with China. I am not an expert, but my readings lead me to believe that India would welcome closer relations with the United States, especially in light of their fears of a Sino-Pakistani axis (just look a a map of China, Pakistan, and Kashmir), not to mention they believe that Pakistan at the very least turned a blind eye toward the Mumbai terrorists, and foments Muslim unrest in Kashmir. Indians believe that OF COURSE the ISI knew where Bin Laden was, and that we are a bit nuts for believing that Pakistan would enthusiastically aid the US in hunting down the Taliban, which after all were an ISI creation (although Pakistan tries to shift some of the blame to the CIA). If the words "smart diplomacy" mean anything to the US, they would include the realization that China is the greatest international challenge to the United States in the foreseeable future, that India would be a valuable and natural strategic ally, and that now is a golden opportunity to start rebalancing our diplomacy accordingly.

Steve Chu

The Pakistani ISI is not a monolithic organization, and as someone said today, it has a Department of Hedging Bets. In other words it is a leaky organization. At some point in this operation the US had to bring in the Pakistani government. The surviving helicopter needed refueling. They had just shot up a compound in a peaceful and orderly neighborhood, they had a body aboard, and they had to get back to the ship. Just who called who to do what isn't clear, but it is a fair inference that the Pakistani military had orders to lay off. Exactly when they got those orders, and who arranged them, hasn't come out and never will.

Note that this raid was months in the planning, and yet there were no leaks getting back to Osama bin Laden. That is at best puzzling. More on this below.

On Pakistan and UBL 

Jerry,

You wrote a nice statement about the Pakistan government:

"Every official source you will ever see will say that Pakistan was deliberately not told anything, and that this raid, taking place in the North East part of Pakistan, was done by stealth from carriers in the Arabian Sea. The operations force entered Pakistan by stealth, carried out a raid in an inland military college town, made use of the local airport, and went back to sea without any prior arrangement with the Pakistani government, which therefore bears no responsibility for the actions."

Now riddle me this and riddle me that, what do you think of that:

"An operation to hunt down and kill Osama bin Laden was run jointly by Pakistan and the United States, Pakistani sources said on Monday, belying perceptions of a rift in relations between the two countries' spy agencies."

 

<http://ca.news.yahoo.com/pakistan-vital-
defeating-al-qaeda-white-house-183812625.html;
_ylt=AisgkeIssliE_U.vidSDqliYn8h_;_ylu=
X3oDMTNhNjhlcHMyBHBrZwMxZmM1NW
JiNi0xNmQ1LTM1MDYtOTllYi04Y2VmNzI3Y
jFlNmEEcG9zAzgEc2VjA01lZGlhU3RvcnlMaX
N0BHZlcgNmYzA4YmE5MC03NTBkLTExZT

I am scratching my head too....

--------

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC
Percussa Resurgo

The Reuters story linked above says

Pakistan's High Commissioner to Britain, Wajid Shamsul Hasan, told Reuters, however, that the operation would not have been possible without Pakistan's help.

"NO RIFT"

"It is a joint operation, secretly collaborated, professionally carried out and satisfactorily ended," he said.

"Yesterday's operation has belied all the allegations in the past that the CIA and ISI were not cooperating and that there was a rift between the CIA and the ISI," he said.

A High Commissioner is a commonwealth ambassador. Clearly at least some part of the Pakistani government has now decided that it is better to get in on some of the credit here, even though President Obama made a point of saying this was a US operation without Pakistani help.

Meanwhile, details of the operation begin to leak out. First Osama bin Laden was armed and was shielded by his youngest wife, who was wounded. Now the buzz is that he was not armed and the woman in the story was his 12 year old daughter, who was in fact wounded. There is no word about her teddy bear. The latest stories are of the President's decisiveness, but no one has decided to release the pictures of bin Laden. There are leaks about the operation, yet for months the entire operation was kept a strict secret without leaks. The President was decisive, yet there was no decision for months. This complex operation was carried out quickly and decisively, meaning that it required a great deal of planning and some preparation, but the ISI got no warning, or if it did, none of that leaked to bin Laden. Bin Laden was unsuspecting and his guards were armed -- there was a fire fight -- so presumably he could have made a run for it had he had ten minutes warning, so presumably he had no such warning. Surely his security team had a contingency plan for what to do if the word came through that the safe house was compromised.

There were weeks of planning. They had a Muslim cleric present to do funeral rites, yet no one decided in advance what to do with the photographs of the body. He was buried at sea with Muslim ritual, rather than sewn in a pigskin sack after being greased with pork lard, yet there are no photographs of the ritual. The Times of India had a photograph of the dead body -- you could see it on the link I posted yesterday morning -- but it is gone now, and best information is that it was a fake. http://www.euronews.net/2011/05/02/
dead-bin-laden-photo-is-a-fake/ 

Now there are no photographs anywhere. Why? Surely he is dead. Why are there no photographs of the dead body? Surely he is not actually in a CIA safe house being interrogated? Surely there is not a water board in his future?

So Pakistan didn't know where he was, or who was in that oddly sealed mansion; Pakistan didn't take any part in the operation, but two US helicopters flew across hundreds of miles of Pakistan to assault a house in Pakistan's military retirement city, lost one, refueled the other, and returned to the sea without any surveillance by Pakistani air assets or even by a local police helicopter. Bin Laden could have escaped with ten minutes warning, but he made no attempt to do so. This was considered for months in the White House, but nothing leaked out to the press. The photos are too gruesome to be released, but release is still being considered. No one is doing any alterations of the photographs, but we still want to think about whether or not to release them.

And so it goes. My head isn't working very well, but this all seems very odd to me. Of course much of it is the usual confusion that happens just after an operation of this sort, but things are getting more confused, not settling out. Very strange. And the White House is tweaking the story a bit. More to come.

============

If there were helicopters and a half hour gunfight outside my house, I'd sure as hell be armed by the time someone got to an upstairs bedroom.

==============

There is mail.

I seem to have full blown flu. I'm going back to bed.

And as it gets later, there is another revision and it was his wife after all, and the death photos will be released Real Soon Now.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Wednesday,  April 4, 2011

I am beginning to wonder if they didn't actually capture Osama bin Laden. It's not likely, of course; but President Obama, having made a fairly courageous decision to send in the shooters rather than just blow the hideout to bits, seems to have made a bit of a mess of the aftermath.

Bin Laden was buried at sea with Muslim rites (presumably conducted by Christians since a translator was involved), which is not likely to satisfy anyone. Muslim True Believers do not accept burial at sea if there is any alternative. Others would say that Osama bin Laden deserved a different set of last rites: to be greased with pork lard, sewn into a pigskin sack, and set out where hyenas or birds of prey or both could finish the job.  After the Arab conquest of Persia following Qadisiyah, there was a long struggle between Mazda fire worshippers and Islam; the Mazdan burial ritual proscribes exposing the body to the sun and leaving it in a place where it is vulnerable to birds of prey, one reason for the Islamic taboos on having the body consumed by predators. Another possibility would have been to put his head on a pike for display at Ground Zero.

Of all those who have opinions on what ought to have been done with bin Laden, few will be satisfied by what was actually done with him. It does not seem a satisfactory solution to the situation. Of course it can't be undone now. He's in the Indian Ocean, accompanied, I suspect, by the excretions of a goodly number of the crew (wait until that story gets out).

And now the President won't show us the pictures. There is no announcement of who did the DNA tests and what tests were done. No experts have come forward to explain. It is as if no one thought about what to do to close the operation.

Which tells us that the "months of planning" were not planning at all. It was dithering, not planning. Proper planning would have determined in advance what to do with the body and with the photographs of the body. And now we must wait until Sixty Minutes on Sunday night to find out precisely what will be done.

It is all very puzzling. Why has Obama spoiled his triumph? Is this just advisors who are too clever by half, or is there a story in here? All very puzzling indeed.

===============

There are now reports from Pakistan that there were no weapons in the bin Laden compound, so there could not have been a firefight. This seems unlikely. Bin Laden wasn't heavily guarded, but surely there were some weapons in his hideout. Several people including one woman, and one of bin Laden's sons, were killed. We haven't seen the teddy bears yet, but I'm watching for them.

Perhaps we can run some pictures of al Qaeda beheading people along with pictures of the mutilated corpse? The President has released pictures of mutilated corpses, just not this one.

And I now have reports that in some California schools they are questioning the violation of bin Laden's civil rights. We can hope that's a joke.

===============

There are also reports that they were growing hashish in the bin Laden compound. While the use of hashish is traditional in some Muslim cultures -- the word "assassin" was long thought to derive from the Old Man of the Mountain who used hashish as part of the rituals of training for his dedicated followers -- it is, like alcohol, forbidden by most Islamic schools. Al Qaeda proclaims itself a very traditional and orthodox Sunni religion.

==============

It was not a good week to be the youngest son of a Muslim terrorist leader. Meanwhile the war in Libya splutters on.

Libya: aid ship cuts short mission in Misurata after coming under fire

A British-funded aid ship was forced to cut short its mission to evacuate civilians from Libya after Col Muammar Gaddafi's forces shelled the port of Misurata shortly after it docked.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/
africaandindianocean/libya/8493150/Libya-aid-
ship-cuts-short-mission-in-Misurata-after-coming-
under-fire.html

Meaning that Gaddafi still controls his forces and is moving into control of Misurata. What comes next? Will Seal Team Six be sent in for Qaddafi?

==========

Inside Washington:

 

interesting times 

Jerry,

Well, we already know we live in interesting times. There is a story out there that, if true, makes things even more interesting. Way too interesting, if true...

The claim is that the order to kill bin Laden didn't originate with the President - that he was largely a bystander in a power struggle, over doing the mission or not, between elements of his staff and cabinet.

The story itself is at http://socyberty.com/issues/
white-house-insider-obama-hesitated-
panetta-issued-order-to-kill-osama-bin-laden/ . It reads halfway plausibly, but the site it's on doesn't look that credible, and it could equally plausibly be a fabrication.

Things get more interesting if you look at the author's site, at http://www.triond.com/users/Ulsterman.  He's obviously not a fan of the President's. But look at the April 28th story onward, and things get interestingly more circumstantial, with advance hints at the above-claimed staff/Cabinet brawl (and a white House inside source with axes to grind) several days before the bin Laden mission was announced.

Now, the writer could be an opportunistic fabulist, or he could have a lapful of dynamite. I can't tell. The story fits the circumstances and personalities I'm aware of (and, come to think of it, also helps explain the bizarre Libya intervention) is all I can say. Someone with a better handle on details of how this White House operates might have a better idea of the veracity of all this. All I can say is, if the foreign policy of the United States is in fact being conducted on such a basis, January of 2013 can't come soon enough.

sign me

Porkypine

The question is one of the character of the President. Does this seem a likely description of the man in action? I have no experience with the President as decision maker.

I can say from my own knowledge that this story is very consistent with Panetta's character and personality as it was two decades ago. I once made speeches at fundraisers for Congressman Panetta, a Democrat, because he was supporting SDI and certain other space programs, and I thought him a good influence on the California Democratic caucus. As a Congressman he was best described as a  New Democrat. I haven't met with him since Clinton appointed him Chief of Staff. Some describe him as a relentless liberal. My experiences with him concerned space military policy back in Reagan days, and I did not find him a relentless ideologue at the time. That was, of course, long ago.

During the Reagan administration I found him a Realist in foreign policy, realistically but not fanatically pro-Israel, and generally in favor of investing in military and space technology. Given the choices President Obama could have made, I was not displeased with his choice for Director of Central Intelligence, and became even less so when Senator Feinstein was unhappy with that choice.

When Speaker Pelosi accused the CIA of having a policy of lying to the Congress, former Speaker Newt Gingrich said:

The first issue was whether or not, in 2002, she was, as the ranking Democrat on the Intelligence Committee, being given certain information. She claims she was not given it. Other people claim she was given it. That should be a matter for investigation by the House, as to whether or not she is lying.

But the second thing she did was, in trying to defend herself, she went on to say that the CIA lies all the time to Congress.

That is a terrible falsehood. It is illegal. And, in fact, I was very impressed on Friday when former Democratic congressman, former chief of staff to President Bill Clinton, Leon Panetta, now the head of the Central Intelligence Agency, sent out an email to all of his employees at the Central Intelligence Agency, pointing out very explicitly -- this is a former Democratic congressman -- saying that they did brief in 2002 accurately; saying that it is a falsehood to suggest that the CIA lies to the Congress, that that is against the law, and the CIA, as an institution of the United States government, must obey the law.

I felt that, to smear every man and woman in our intelligence service who is out there risking their life trying to defend America from terrorists, trying to defend America from other major powers -- worried about North Korea, worried about Pakistan, worried about Iran -- for those folks to have, as speaker of the House, third in line to be president, somebody who had that level of contempt and that level of dishonesty was simply unacceptable.

You'll have to make up your own minds about the story. I do not find it incredible.

============

Pictures taken by the Pakistani journalists the morning after, and sold to Reuters

http://www.calgarysun.com/
2011/05/04/photos-show-three-
dead-men-at-bin-laden-raid-house

==============

 

 

 

 

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Thursday,  May 5, 2011

A New Policy

President Obama does not believe in a a war on terror. He is hardly alone in that view. War on a concept rather than an enemy is a very open ended affair.

Fortunately, it can now end. The man who declared that war is dead. Osama bin Laden's death briefly obscured the most significant event: Arab Spring -- mass uprisings against the existing order, in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria, with unrest in Iran, Jordan, Bahrain, Yemen, and all across the Near and Middle East. The old order in the Arab world is coming to an end. The regimes in the non-Arab Muslim world are unstable.

The war on terror is over. We can declare victory and come home. That should save at least $200 billion a year. Spend half that developing nuclear power. Use the rest in political bribes to grease the way for relaxation of regulations. Suspend those  preventing development of domestic energy resources. Start a new era of economic freedom. Economic freedom plus low cost energy is the key to prosperity.

The first step is to disengage from overseas adventures. We have given Iraq and Afghanistan a head start on the new movements across the Arab and non-Arab Muslim world. They now have their chance to build a better society. Now it's time to build ours.

============

I don't suppose either the Republican leadership or the White House will agree with the new policy. Politics as usual will continue. Here is a bit more of it.

Continuing yesterday's story:

From The Telegraph:

"Mr Panetta also told the network that the US Navy Seals made the final decision to kill bin Laden <http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/al-qaeda/>  rather than the president."

I suppose we should be relieved.

Steve Chu

The thrust of all this is that President Obama acted more like the chairman of a faculty committee than as a decision maker. That's hard to determine, as it should be.

there had been a push to invade the compound for several weeks if not months, primarily led by Leon Panetta, Hillary Clinton, Robert Gates, David Petraeus, and Jim Clapper.  The primary opposition to this plan originated from Valerie Jarrett, and it was her opposition that was enough to create uncertainty within President Obama.  Obama would meet with various components of the pro-invasion faction, almost always with Jarrett present, and then often fail to indicate his position.  This situation continued for some time, though the division between Jarrett/Obama and the rest intensified more recently, most notably from Hillary Clinton.  She was livid over the president’s failure to act, and her office began a campaign of anonymous leaks to the media indicating such.  As for Jarrett, her concern rested on two primary fronts. 

One, that the military action could fail and harm the president’s already weakened standing with both the American public and the world.  Second, that the attack would be viewed as an act of aggression against Muslims, and further destabilize conditions in the Middle East.

Hillary Clinton, and President Clinton's former chief of staff Leon Panetta come out well in the story, but that's not unexpected considering where the leaks are coming from.

===============

New Face of Terror

Jerry,

You may recall from October 25th 2010 that we talked about Awlaki dining at the Pentagon under the mail title: Anwar Al-Awlaki -- Al Qaeda Leader -- Dines at Pentagon http://www.jerrypournelle.com/mail/2010/Q4/mail646.html 

Well, guess who our new bogey man is?

<snip> “Anwar al-Awlaki, affiliated with a Yemen-based faction of al-Qaida, is being mentioned in national media reports as a potential successor to Osama bin Laden, who was killed last week in Pakistan,” reports a Carlsbad, New Mexico newspaper. The Muslim cleric was born in Las Cruces, New Mexico. </snip> http://www.infowars.com
/pentagon-dinner-guest-al-awlaki-slated-to-replace-osama/  -------- Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC Percussa Resurgo

Perhaps we know how to find him...

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Friday,  May 6, 2011

It has been a long week. I seem to be recovering. Apologies.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-pqFyKh-rUI     

 

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Saturday,  May 7, 2011

.Recovering. Sort of.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Sunday,  May 8, 2011

Mothers' Day

It was a good day. I'm still recovering.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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