| Tuesday,
March 29, 2011 Jerry - the below is from
"Mel" El Sayed. Mel was my American Interpreter in Egypt. He is from
Alexandria, where his father (a prominent businessman) still lives, but is
now a US Citizen residing in Atlanta. Though I have trusted him with my
life, Mel can get overly excited, and he's obviously an El Baradie supporter
for what it's worth.
s/f Couv
==
From: David Couvillon
Subject: Egypt
This from a friend:
"The word from my Egyptian contact is that the
Muslim Brotherhood won the referendum and is in a position to take over.
They're still having curfews there, but it's currently quiet. Gangsters
have a new game in Cairo, where they stop your car, force you out and then
force you to sign a contract turning your car over to them.
I do not think the Egyptian Army will tolerate this
for long, but it may take time to put together a decision making
structure. At the moment the Mamelukes are holding on and reorganizing. A
new leader -- or Council -- will emerge, but that may take some time. I
suspect one major question is the policy toward Israel and the Peace
Process. We know there are factions that want to renew the war against
Israel. Unrest in Jordan and Syrian will have an effect on that decision.
We don't know what the rebel factions want. If they are all Moslem
Brotherhood, times may get interesting."
What do you hear?
Cheap energy = prosperity!
Drill here, DRILL NOW!
David Couvillon Colonel, U.S. Marine Corps Reserve,
Retired.; Former Governor of Wasit Province, Iraq; Righter of Wrongs;
Wrong most of the time; Distinguished Expert, TV remote control; Chef de
Hot Dog Excellance; Avoider of Yard Work
From: Maher
Absolutely wrong news ,who told you this???!!!
gangsters were organized by the former regime , after they opened
persons in 6 difference cities, about 23,000 prisoners were escaped back
on 02/25/11. a new Sheff of police was started in with the new temporary
government by Mr Asa'am Sharf . they succeed to rearrest about 18,000
from the escaped prisoners. The Muslims Brothers group plus the other
fanatics Muslims can't be more than %12 to %15 from the total of 85
millions. A new life is starting in Egypt, a few good men showing up and
they are starting to prepared for a new Election will take place around
month of September this year such as DR M. Elbaradaie , Mr Amr Mosha and
more. Mubarak in Sharm city in house arrest, and his family too. Some
from Mubarak's regime and helper are free still, the police department
have just started to get back in the streets by last week, I believed
the situation will get better in a few months max, do you have an
easement for me over there, a news reporter, writing more details . you
know. by the way it was a survey to change some from the old
Constitution and it went good just to decrees the power of the president
and to cancel the demands which Mubarak add it to keep it for his son. A
new Constitution will be ready soon, so by the time a new president will
be elected it will take a place. please ask me I will tell you because I
am so involved plus I am a member of Egyptian Association for Change by
DR. MOHAMED ELBARADIE.
I do not have direct sources of information among
the Mamelukes, but I do know many who have worked with them, and few think
they will be more than tolerant of the Muslim Brotherhood. I note that there
seems to be no move to repudiate the treaty with Israel.
==================
President speech
Dr. Pournelle,
It seems that the rationale you posted is exactly as
the President reasoned. We went to war because we had a U.N. mandate, the
request from the Arab League, and because it isn't really a war if those
other things happen and no boots hit the ground. Congress doesn't really
have a say as a body -- just individuals whom he can convince. He is willing
and empowered to act unilaterally when it suits him.
It can't be comfortable to be right on this one.
Still no invasion: a no-fly-zone is apparently a
strategy when it is monitored (not paid for) by a foreign government.
I was only surprised to hear the admission that the
frozen Libyan assets weren't his ... I mean ours -- must be the first cash
he's ever thought of as not belonging to him...er us.
-d
==
Libya Thoughts
Jerry,
There's not much to add to what you and others have
been saying lately. If in fact our country has a well thought-out plan for
Libya (for the Middle east upheavals in general) we're doing a world-class
job of disguising it behind a smokescreen of seeming cluelessness. I'd
*really* like to believe it's just a smokescreen... A few quick
observations:
There are reports out of Syria of Farsi-speaking (IE,
almost certainly Iranian) rooftop snipers being collared by enraged Syrians.
This may say a couple of interesting things - that the Syrian demonstrators
are less cowed than the Iranian ones who were similarly sniped a while back,
and that Syria may, repeat may, be short of local forces willing to shoot
demonstrators. (SecDef Gates has openly called for the Syrian Army to refuse
to do so, FWIW.) If the Syrian Baathists are in fact anywhere near
crumbling, the size of the opportunity hardly needs elaboration. Our current
ability to effectively capitalize, on the other hand, well...
Back in Libya, the US getting stuck with doing the
ground strikes even after NATO officially takes over is probably because
we're the only NATO country equipped and experienced to do so without also
immediately producing massive civilian casualties. Same reason we started
out in overall command of the operation: We were the only nation with a ship
nearby with the specialized theater command capability ready to do the job.
Massively ironic, given our government's apparent desire to use this crisis
to move the US toward being just one country among many, no longer the
essential one.
And going back a few days to reports that Putin wanted
Russia to veto the UN Libya resolution, but Medvedev defied him and allowed
the resolution to pass, it occurs to me that it would be a mistake to assume
Medvedev meant us well. He may simply have a subtler appreciation than Putin
of how best to erode the US's international position.
Henry
Tar babies come to mind
==
Good thing for us
Dear Doctor Pournelle,
Boy, were we lucky!
imagine if this conversation had happened in London
ca. 1864-
"Gentlemen, it is a Humanitarian Catastrophe that we
face. This madman has unleashed his army upon his own people. Even now, as
we deliberate, our agents report that a rampaging legion of his blue clad
devils, under command of a man once certified insane, descends upon the
largest city of the rebel held region. Tens of thousands of innocent
civilians, huddled within the ramparts of Atlanta, know that their doom
swiftly approaches, Their brave but ill equipped rag tag defenders have no
hope of stopping, of even slowing, the inevitable doom that is only days
from their doorsteps.
I have had discussions with representatives of other
powers, including the French, who are Supremely Anxious to act in a
Humanitarian Fashion to prevent this looming massacre. They lack only the
leadership which we alone might provide to such a disparate coalition, and
the conveying powers of our Great Royal Navy, able to sweep aside all
opposition on the High seas.
The question before this House, is whether we shall
dither until Sherman razes Atlanta to the ground, to then descend upon
further innocent civilians in the hinterland of Georgia, or shall we, in
concert with the other Great Powers, in cognizance of our Responsibility to
Mankind and our Christian Faith, shall not act swiftly to put a stop to this
crime?!"
Good thing Disraeli and Gladstone weren't as
Progressed as we are!
Just another amusing thought.
I'm full of 'em!
Petronius
===========
Death of a Cosmonaut
I followed the link to the NPR blog post about the
cosmonaut's death, and it was quite affecting. But there is a supplement
post linked from that page in which the author responds to factual
criticism from various readers.
<http://www.npr.org/blogs/krulwich/
2011/03/22/134735091/questions-questions-
questions-more-on-a-cosmonauts-mysterious-death>
Please understand, everybody, that while I was shocked
by Doran and Bizony's account, and wondered out loud if the details were
right, I didn't know of Siddiqi's book or Colin Burgess' book; that's the
way these blogs operate. I didn't spend a month reading through all the
books on this subject, I just wanted to share the version that shocked me.
But now that I know about the others, I will definitely see what they have
to say.)
So the story now seems to fall into the category of
"prewriting" from which a fully researched account might sometime be
developed.
--Mike
I will say without further comment that no one I
know who has any knowledge of this believes that matters are settled
regarding the death of Gagarin.
=========
Letter
from England
I heard from my Egyptian contact.
It's quiet there, although the curfew is still in effect. She's worried that
the Muslim Brotherhood is now in a position to take over and feels that the
leadership is handling the transition poorly. There are also problems with
law enforcement and the legal system.
The faculty union went on strike
here. I had a long private argument with the shop steward over aims and
means. I find striking over pensions and salaries is particularly selfish
when there are immediate and more important issues of justice we're
ignoring. At least I made him uncomfortable.
Now for the Trades Union
Congress protest march: <http://tinyurl.com/679ougw>
<http://tinyurl.com/6dmwr6z>.
This could get nasty.
I purchased a new Kindle and am
trying it out. Ideally, it will mean a reduction in the books in our luggage
when we visit Crete during Easter.
UK Budget report released: <http://tinyurl.com/5veehoj>
Osborne: "Oil tax will not hit
most motorists." Then most petrol stations raised their prices: <http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12844157>
Osborne now faces a credit
rating crisis: <http://tinyurl.com/63mcsot>
How to grow a mind: <http://www.sciencemag.org/content/331/6022/1279.abstract>
We've used some of these ideas in our research.
Countries without first world
militaries are not first world countries: <http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/03/25/libya_analysis/>
Privacy in the UK: <http://tinyurl.com/6xjefqc>
NHS rationing: <http://tinyurl.com/5r2vrhf>
<http://tinyurl.com/6c2su86>
They decided to charge for
attendance this year... <http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-12860259>
Stagflation in the UK: <http://tinyurl.com/62x3ug3>
Explain this image: <http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap110323.html>
If they arrived so early, how
did they bypass the glaciers? <http://tinyurl.com/4nzqrag>
Curious result: <http://tinyurl.com/4u3a86v>
The suspicion is now that male mice who lack serotonin will hump anything.
--
Beware Outside Context Problems--
Harry Erwin, PhD
==
Sunday Follow-Up
There was violence as predicted in London at the TUC
march. <http://tinyurl.com/6e8yjln>
<http://tinyurl.com/4z83n7t>
<>
Syria now killing protesters. <http://tinyurl.com/5wr652f>
<http://tinyurl.com/4jt764n>
The $14,400 (plus living expenses) per year university
fees keep coming. <http://tinyurl.com/4g64ny6>
If UK academics want research funding, they must now
research what the Government wants researched and in the way the Government
wants it researched. <http://tinyurl.com/4tylg4h>
(See quote from Lord Russell.)
-- "an academic who listens to pleas of convenience
before publishing his research risks calling into doubt the whole of his
determination to find the truth." (Russell 1993)
Harry Erwin
============
An important book.
<http://www.amazon.com/America-Aflame-
Civil-Created-Nation/dp/1596917024/jerrypournellcha>
<http://www.amazon.com/America-Aflame
-ebook/dp/B004PGMHUG/jerrypournellcha>
The Kindle edition is grossly overpriced, but this is
a valuable corrective to the prevailing myth about the War Between the
States, IMHO.
--- Roland Dobbins
============
Losing our way
I wouldn't generally call my views sympatico with
those of Bob Herbert at the NYT but he posted his last column there today
called "Losing our way <http://www.sowal.com/bb/redirect-to/?redirect=
http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F
2011%2F03%2F26%2Fopinion%2F26
herbert.html%3Fadxnnl%3D1%26adxnnlx%
3D1301130773-kkf9uZlWG0HGgrFW2A0d3A> " and I have to say that a
lot of it resonates with me.
So here we are pouring shiploads of cash into yet
another war, this time in Libya, while simultaneously demolishing school
budgets, closing libraries, laying off teachers and police officers, and
generally letting the bottom fall out of the quality of life here at home.
Welcome to America in the second decade of the 21st
century. An army of long-term unemployed workers is spread across the land,
the human fallout from the Great Recession and long years of misguided
economic policies. Optimism is in short supply. The few jobs now being
created too often pay a pittance, not nearly enough to pry open the doors to
a middle-class standard of living. I don't disagree with any of that.
The U.S. has not just misplaced its priorities. When
the most powerful country ever to inhabit the earth finds it so easy to
plunge into the horror of warfare but almost impossible to find adequate
work for its people or to properly educate its young, it has lost its way
entirely.
Nearly 14 million Americans are jobless and the
outlook for many of them is grim. It certainly doesn't seem to me that
anyone in charge really cares about where the country is headed. Our leaders
have the same mindset that Wall Street has forced business into. All that
business leaders seem to care about these days is the current quarter's
results. Someone else can fix the future, just give us our bonuses now. We
are seeing the government equivalent.
The column continues with some discussion about
inequalities; companies like GE not paying taxes, etc...and ends with this
summary containing the subtle message that our politicians are serving their
owners instead of the rest of us. (The bold emphasis is mine.)
Overwhelming imbalances in wealth and income
inevitably result in enormous imbalances of political power. So the
corporations and the very wealthy continue to do well. The employment crisis
never gets addressed. The wars never end. And nation-building never gets a
foothold here at home.
New ideas and new leadership have seldom been more
urgently needed. That last line seems to sum up what we need to improve
things around here.
Regards,
John
John Harlow
==========
'The mother told investigators she did not want to
press charges against Hachero, because she had recently been accepted to
several Ivy League colleges.'
<http://www.news-press.com/article/20110328/
CRIME/110328015/Deputies-17-year-old-girl-
assaults-mother-gun-get-new-vehicle>
--- Roland Dobbins
The discontents of civilization...
===========
Newly Homeless Re-Establish Order Amid Chaos,
Jerry
An amazing story:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/26/world/asia/26refugees.html?hp
“Just two weeks after this nation’s greatest
catastrophe in decades, the citizens at Takada Junior High School No. 1,
this town’s largest evacuee center, have managed to fashion a microcosm of
the spotlessly organized and efficient Japan they so recently knew.” <snip>
““It’s hard to gather these people to live together
here,” Tsutomu Nakai, the soft-spoken 61-year-old retiree who manages the
center, said on Thursday. “They all have different lifestyles and different
personalities. But so far, people have volunteered to help each other, and
it works very well.”
“None of this is to suggest that Takada Junior High is
the Waldorf. There is immense suffering and personal misery here: grieving
survivors, financial ruin, smelly bodies, no running water, frigid outdoor
toilets, endless boredom and the prospect of sleeping on a hard floor with
complete strangers for weeks — even months — to come.” <snip>
“The spirit is captured by the hand-drawn signs that
adorn the gym: “Let’s be grateful that we are alive”; “Cheer up, Takata”;
“Let’s communicate and bond our hearts.”
“The messages are lived in simple ways. One expects
that 1,000 evacuees would have access to a doctor, and the Japan Red Cross
has opened a well-staffed clinic on the first floor. But one might not
expect the two dentists next door, who decided on March 17 to volunteer
their services and opened shop the next day, treating about 15 patients
daily with the help of staff members whose own homes were lost in the
tsunami.
“I don’t have any other place to work, because my
office washed away,” said Masanori Yoshiday, 60. “We can rebuild the office
later.”
“The dentists were followed by Shoichi Yanashita, a
66-year-old barber and a fellow evacuee, who was giving free haircuts on
Thursday with scissors and a razor borrowed from a friend in a nearby town.
“We have to support each other,” he said, “and this is what I know how to
do.” <snip>
How ironic that “Be happy in your work” seems not to
have been a caricature after all.
Ed
Hair cutting and dentistry joined a long list of
services, donated and otherwise: volunteer bicycle-repairing, a shuttle bus
ferrying evacuees from center to center, pet cages donated by local
veterinarians, free laundering of refugees’ clothes by local high-school
students.
Works and days...
============
Actually, I think it's pretty clear that Germany won
WWII in the European Theater.
Sixty-odd years on, it appears to me that Germany has
achieved most of her war aims without firing a shot, all under the aegis of
the EU - the establishment which, after all, was von Ribbentrop's idea,
building upon the legacy of Napoleon's Continental System.
---- Roland Dobbins
Taking the long view -- alas, too late for
the Hohenzollerns.
==========
Steppenwolf and the Wet Star
Dear Jerry Pournelle:
Thank you for posting the link to the paper about the
Steppenwolf, or habitable rogue planet. A sunless world can harbor an
under-ice ocean if it is a bit larger than Earth, or has a thicker
atmosphere; fission in the rocky core keeps the ocean liquid and out of
thermodynamic equilibrium for gigayears; plenty of time to form a biosphere.
I like this, especially with its implication that you
don't need stars for life. Stars are wasteful; we barely use ours; once we
master fusion then stars will be obsolete. Which brings me to the topic of
this letter; the Wet Star.
A Wet Star resembles a Steppenwolf, in that it is an
sunless inhabited planet, powered by its own nuclear energy; but where the
Steppenwolf is powered by its core's dumb fission, fading with time, the Wet
Star is powered by its biosphere's smart fusion, constant over time.
The Wet Star's structure is as follows: its core is a
Moon-sized sphere of magnetized iron, for gravity and for a magnetosphere;
this is surrounded by a thick shell of high-pressure ices; surrounded by a
deep ocean, surrounded by an atmosphere. It is mostly dirty ice and dirty
water, somewhat bigger than Earth, with 1 gee surface gravity. The ocean is
heated by the waste heat of billions of fusion-powered deep-sea vessels.
Each vessel is a fusion-powered submarine arcology; each with up to millions
of inhabitants; making a possible population of quadrillions. This is
comparable to a Ringworld, but much smaller in size, because it populates
volume not area.
Because distances in a wet star are less than a
light-second (unlike Ringworld or Dyson Sphere) it's possible for the
billions of vessels to communicate quickly, and thus form a planetary
internet, or noosphere, for exchanging information about positions,
currents, traffic, temperature and chemical composition. The wet star can
react as a unit in the case of collision, radiation or other threat. (The
vessels usually react simply by retreating to the bottom of the deep ocean;
sufficient shielding against asteroid or supernova blast.) The wet star's
vessels can meet to exchange materials or inhabitants. They reproduce, age,
die, and are broken up for parts, inhabitants and material. They share
language, math, information and inhabitants but are otherwise independent.
The Wet Star's ocean is heated from within, and cooled
at the surface; therefore it convects. The water wells up at both poles,
then circulates towards the frozen equatorial belt, then descends and
circulates poleward. The equatorial ice-belt is the wet star's only solid
surface. Taken as a whole, the wet star is fixed at the triple point of
water. Its atmosphere is water vapor, CO2 and other greenhouse gases; but
also some oxygen and helium; these being left over from fusing the hydrogen
from ocean water. The helium is light and warm enough to escape the wet
star; it outgasses helium constantly, and in consequence the wet star slowly
loses mass. Quadrillions of years from now that might cause trouble; but by
that time a wet star could 'refuel' by plowing into a Saturn-like world's
ice ring.
The wet star's atmosphere also convects, and it has
weather. Expect constant thunderstorms at the equatorial icebelt.
I give the wet star a magnetic core for it to have a
magnetosphere; but perhaps that would not remain magnetized for the millions
of billions of years I see possible. Perhaps the wet star's biosphere will
cooperatively form a belt of superconducting cables, attached to the
underside of the ice-belt, carrying sufficient current for a magnetosphere.
Because the ice belt is constantly spalling, the superconducting cables must
be constantly replaced; a quadrillion-year continuous maintenance chore, but
necessary in a radiologically hazardous Galaxy.
Though of course a Wet Star doesn't need a Galaxy any
more than it needs a star. So it could just up and leave... given motility.
But how to mount an effective engine on an inhabited water-drop bigger than
Earth? Perhaps... give each of those billions of vessels a neutrino beam,
which they all fire continuously in unison? Or maybe hook a cable to
geosynch at the ice belt, and fire an ion drive from geosynch? It may take a
while to change course, but what's time to a wet star?
It seems to me that the wet star's biggest problems
are; motility, magnetosphere, and biospheric coordination, especially in
heat regulation. How to get a billion independent city-states to burn just
enough hydrogen to keep the ocean liquid, but not boil it off? That's where
the internet comes in.
The above are my speculations to date. Pehaps you
could mention this to Niven? And of course this is just a rough sketch;
numbers and feasibility need checking.
- Nathaniel Hellerstein
==========
Cum grano salis
Dear Jerry
Physicist and science writer Jeremy Bernstein has
replied to my comments on his insightful New York Review of Books coverage
of Japan:
http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2011
/mar/25/japans-radiation-scare-good-news-and-bad/
Elsewhere on the political spectrum. George Monbiot of
the Manchester Guardian has announced that the minimal body count from the
worser-than-worst case crack-up of this wheezy six-pack of plutonium burning
Edsels have turned him into a true believer in the future of nuclear power!
-
http://www.monbiot.com/2011/03/21/going-critical/
* <http://disqus.com/Mnestheus/
> Mnestheus 8 hours ago <http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/
nyrblog/2011/mar/25/japans-radiation-scare-
good-news-and-bad/#comment-173137856> I fear I must take Jeremy's
observations with , quite literally, a very large grain of salt, and there
is a lot more to sel du mer than sodium chloride.
At last account more than 50 tons of it were
incrusting the innards of several of the damaged reactors , in consequence
of the boil off of the thousands of tons of sea water so far used to cool
them.
Unless fresh water is soon found to flush these briny
deposits away, the formerly infrared transparent salt will turn black as an
unwelcome swan as irradiation creates a profusion color centers in the solid
halides . The fluid will grow more corrosive too, as ionization creates
hydrogen peroxide and liberates corrosive halogens like bromine and
electrolysis promotes acid forming reactions. Seawater contains half the
periodic chart, and boiling it down in a metal bucket in proximity to still
hot reactor fuel may void what's left of the warranty on this quality
product of GE Ecoimagination. <http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/
2011/mar/25/japans-radiation-
scare-good-news-and-bad/#> Edit Reply * <http://disqus.com/guest/c6f9138e
cb68caef8d9444ad92c5fff2/> Jbernste 1 hour ago <http://www.nybooks.com/blogs
/nyrblog/2011/mar/25/japans-
radiation-scare-good-news-
and-bad/#comment-173351111>
in reply to Mnestheus <http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/
2011/mar/25/japans-radiation-
scare-good-news-and-bad/
#comment-173137856> I thank Russell Seitz for this. I agree with
what he says about sea water and note that attempts are now being made to
flush this out with ordinary water. Reports from Japan continue to be
ambiguous. This morning it was claimed that iodine 134 had been observed.
This is a very short-lived isotope whose presence would have meant that
fission was still going on. This report was retracted a short while later.
-- Russell Seitz
Fellow of the Department of Physics Harvard University
===========
Clinton: No military action in Syria for now - Face
The Nation - CBS News
Jerry,
More idiocy. Has Hillary read no history of how
Assad's daddy exterminated 20,000 in a rebellious city or incited a civil
war in Lebanon? How about how Assad more recently murdered the PM of Lebanon
and reignited the civil war. Assad is no doubt working feverishly on nukes
as is Iran and North Korea. In fact North Korea might sell nukes to Syria
and Iran so that they can detonate them to prove their nuclear status. Even
locomotive mass, subkiloton yield nukes fueled with reactor waste grade
Plutonium would suffice to establish deterrence.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/
2011/03/27/ftn/main20047627.shtml
Jim Crawford
I am sure that Syria will seek modern
sovereignty.
===========
Defense Secretary: Libya Did Not Pose Threat to
U.S., Was Not 'Vital National Interest' to Intervene - Political Punch
Jerry,
Gates admits that Libya not a threat to US!
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/
2011/03/defense-secretary-libya-did-not-
pose-threat-to-us-was-not-vital-national-
interest-to-intervene.html
Justification was that Libyan conflict would endanger
revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia. Tunisia does not matter. The alleged
concern about Egypt certainly raises doubts about the wisdom of supporting a
destabilizing revolution rather than allow the Mamaluks to have a coup if
that was their choice. A stable Egypt would have been able to contain Libya
or perhaps intervene if ther was any rational need.
Jim Crawford
A vital interest? Or not? It depends on our
goals, doesn't it? But I have no idea what those goals are under this
President. I do not mean that as an insult: I simply do not know
what he believes the national interests to be. Perhaps I have not
understood him.
Without knowing the goals it is difficult to
evaluate the strategy.
==========
Not Teddy Bears, but same tactic
Jerry:
Could be true, but it is idiotic to presume that
dropping bombs will not kill civilians. It can be justified only in per suit
of a rational goal.
http://af.reuters.com/article/
libyaNews/idAFN2610487720110326
I'm following Al Jazerra to see when the Arab League
will rescind it's approval. Also waiting for riots in Britain and France to
protest the war.
Jim Crawford
=================
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