Chaos Manor Home Page> Mail Home Page > View Home Page > Current View > Chaos Manor Reviews Home PageCHAOS MANOR MAILMail 660 January 31 - February 6, 2011 |
||||||||
CLICK ON THE BLIMP TO SEND MAIL TO ME. Mail sent to me may be published. FOR THE CURRENT VIEW PAGE CLICK HERE This page looks better if you set the default text to Georgia.
If you send mail, it may be published. See below. For boiler plate, instructions, and how to pay for this place, see below.
|
This week: | Monday
January 31, 2011
Subject: Robinson Self-Teaching Home School Curriculum I looked into the Robinson Curriculum. After a lot of poking around I found that program consists of 22 CD's worth of books scanned in the tiff image format. This is inconvenient to say the least. Tiff images are incompatible with EVERY EREADER on the market. Some users have resorted to converting whole set into PDF's. That has to be a very time consuming process, resulting in huge files that are impossible to reformat or search. It is a shame that this fine program has this one glaring negative. But people should be aware of it before they purchase the program. Sincerely, Clearly a pioneer program and clearly one that ought to be reformulated. I recommended the program because of its results and from my inspection of the curriculum; I had not noted the format, which is really unfortunate. It ought to be available for transfer to iPad or Nook or Kindle. Of course translating into some other eBook format takes time that I am pretty sure Robinson doesn't have, but readers should understand that limit. ================ Telegraph story on current events in Egypt: <http://tinyurl.com/5vyfso8>. I had a long phone call Friday from one of my old PhD students who lives in Egypt about these events. Nobody knows what's happening. Pure inanity: <http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/01/28/gatwick_gun/> The value of committed marriage: <http://tinyurl.com/6ygh4fl> The Franco regime appears to have approached the current North Korean government in its corruption, but you have to visit Spain to see the real evidence: <http://tinyurl.com/4rb9os9> Laffer curve? <http://tinyurl.com/5vmumzg> Too powerful a central government means the consequences of major policy changes aren't thought through: <http://tinyurl.com/64fkcov>. Of course, you can have the reverse, too, where nothing gets changed in time. The UK working class is very risk-averse. This will help take university degrees out of consideration: <http://tinyurl.com/6ea8jqt> The editors of Nature Neuroscience believe the Government policies will eliminate research-led growth in the UK: <http://tinyurl.com/6hruv2v> The unions are planning to strike on March 23rd, but I don't think that's a good strategic decision. <http://tinyurl.com/4ofugpu> The problem with stagflation in the UK appears to be due to a combination of money supply growth and market failure. UK housing prices will probably experience a soft landing, so I should be safe, but I'm just wondering whether there's anything I can do to profit from the situation. -- Harry Erwin, PhD "If you can't be a good example, then you'll just have to be a horrible warning." (Catherine Aird) As it was in England before Thatcher, so shall it be in the United States; but why is England doing another trip down the Atlee/Bevin road? ============== Energy policy Hello Jerry, From 'View' today: "The Iraq war was, in theory, an attempt by the US to establish liberal democracy in the Middle East. It cost the United States more than it would have cost had we invested that money on energy independence and infrastructure in the United States. Of course had "we" invested it, that is, done by use of public money, deficits, and taxation with centralized control, the results would not have been as effective as might have been, but still the results would have been to stimulate the economy. I doubt we would have the Great Recession had we chosen energy independence as a goal rather than establishing liberal democracy in the Middle East." Spot on. People apparently do not realize that our government has done everything short of summary execution to ensure that the US DOES NOT and WILL NOT achieve energy independence. Not now, not ever. And it has stopped short of that only because no one (so far) has been foolish or brave enough to attempt to drill a well, dig a mine, build a refinery, or build a power plant in the absence of a government sanction for the project. As you have pointed out many times, cheap abundant energy is the key to freedom and prosperity, both of which our government views with about the same enthusiasm as a vampire does sunrise. Bob Ludwick While I do not share your view of the government's malicious intent, it certainly does look that way. Bonaparte said never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence, but when you get this much incompetence among supposedly smart people, one does begin to wonder. Still, the notion of a "conspiracy" that encompasses hundreds of influential elected people and thousands of their staffers seems a bit much; easier to look for more intellectual reasons. People I know well and would personally trust with nearly everything I have seem to have bought in to most of the policies I find absolutely absurd. I find that a lot. Now I am willing to believe that I am in the top part of the bell curve, but I can't conceive of being able to believe a great deal of the nonsense that seems to be public policy. == On Chinese nuclear plants Dear Dr. Pournelle: I found this link
http://energyfromthorium.com/ on the NEPTUNUS LEX website. I thought it might interest you. Regards, Tim Scott Not all governments are incompetent on energy policy. Ours certainly is. == Subject: Key senator backs nuclear in clean energy proposal
http://billingsgazette.com/news/national/article_ Tracy Walters, CISSP Hope springs eternal... =========== Carniculture! - I really LIKE finding stories where something science fiction took for granted starts coming true.
http://www.reuters.com/article/ R, Rose Shades of Chicken Heart! Gravy Planet! And other old Golden Age science fiction stories. ======== Food riots Jerry: Food was the trigger...(?)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ Jim Every country is only about three meals from a revolution. But when the mob takes to the streets in search of food, its first move is usually to burn the bakeries. ============ What Happens In the Dark (G-Rated)
http://online.wsj.com/article/ "Most of the universe is made up of dark energy and dark matter, neither of which is fully understood or explained by current models and theories. In "The 4% Universe," Richard Panek describes the investigations of scientists." Charles Brumbelow Chesterton is attributed as saying "When a man ceases to believe in God, he does not then believe in nothing. He will believe in anything." I have noted that in order to be certain there is nothing special about this universe which seems extraordinarily well designed for humanity, we are now told to believe in an infinity of universes, the multi-verse, and we happen to live in one that can support us. No design or Deity needed. In the Beginning God created an infinity of Heavens and Earths -- well, no. In the beginning there were a whack of a lot of Big Bangs. So far neither Dark Energy nor the Multiverse seem to generate falsifiable hypotheses, removing them from science and relegating them to religion. I cheerfully admit that in the absence of evidence I prefer the religion I grew up with to these new ones, but perhaps I am insufficiently flexible in my views. =========== High speed rail fallacy Hi Dr Pournelle - as a crusty old scottish farmer and engineer I have been a fan of your literary output for decades ( How is Larry Niven by the way?) As a reader of Scientific American, I have also been responding to articles on high speed rail and trying to point out that they are expensive both to build and to run, and may not even be much more fuel efficient than aviation on longer journeys. They are also noisy and destructive of any intruding wildlife. In these posts I have recommended that in this time of incipient depression it would be worthwhile investing a significant sum in a prize for the best developed ETT ( evacuated tube transport ) system. Unlike any of the current transport media, ETT has the potential to be faster, quieter, weather immune, environmentally benign, durable, and use much less primary energy, than anything we presently have. Since a tube is a better structure from a rigidity and load bearing point of view than a ribbon, a double tube ( one each way ) may use less material than a highway or railroad. Even at diameters circa 4.5meters, the thickness of material to withstand one atmosphere pressure difference is quite thin. President Obama came to office with the hopes of many around the world wishing him and the US well . It was probably unrealistic to expect so much from him. Entrenched bureaucracies on both sides of the "pond", put their remorseless, and blind, empire building above the public interest. Having everything regulated, and a regulation for everything, is the ultimate self delusion of those who think that more power is always the answer to life's problems. Your website shows you are a very busy man- hope you have time for a response. regards Sandy Henderson Just went for a hike with Niven. Like many I like the idea of high speed rails, and I have been impressed with the European rail system, but I also live in a much larger country. Pardon me boy, but is that the Chattanooga ChooChoo? All very well, but airplanes are faster and cheaper, and a great deal more convenient, as I found when Roberta and I took the train to New Orleans once. Evacuated tube transport is certainly not a flexible system; it is the ultimate in point to point. Whether it has an economic center is open to debate. Los Angeles to New York? Possibly, but it is hard to imagine a system more vulnerable to terrorism. ==================d
|
This week: | Tuesday,
February 1, 2011 A Trip Down the Bevin/Attlee Road I had a chat with a union leader about the strike plans Monday evening. He seemed intent on fighting battles (Trident, taxation) from 35 years ago--there was no sign of a realistic awareness of current issues. The people I see around me seem to have two goals: to protect their pensions and to decline as comfortably as possible. However, unless you think long-term in a capitalist economy, you will fall behind those who do. There are always a few people around who spend time every week thinking about how to make money from short-termism, and unless enough people plan for the long term, they will eventually own everything. -- Harry Erwin, PhD ==========
======== Egypt's revolution: causative factors Dear Dr. Pournelle: As is my wont these days, it seems that I am relying more on your estimable website to get the news, or rather, an education in the background of the news, instead of relying on the various <strike>propaganda arms</strike>, er, news media. This has been certainly the case with the recent fracas in Egypt. Nonetheless, perhaps because you have been busy with other things, I fear that you may not have paid enough attention to one news link in Dr. Erwin's "Letter from England". I believe that that link is worthy of your further attention. That link is: http://tinyurl.com/5vyfso8 It is a link from the London Telegraph, and the full link may be found here:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/ Hoping you are well, I am Very truly yours, Bernard Brandt
I understand there are some WikiLeak cables confirming this. If so, it says a lot about the analytical abilities of State and CIA. Wishful thinking is not a good basis for foreign policy, and apparently there are those who learned nothing from the fall of the Shah. The Company is strongly partitioned, and it is possible to find almost any opinion you want if you look hard enough for it; and if you're a senior White House guy with a particular ideology you can then say "Intelligence officers say..." In my day the official position of the State Department and much of the Agency was that the USSR spent no more than 17% of its GDP on military pay and weapons. Others, including Possony and me, said it was above 30% (Steve Possony thought it was getting up to 40% but that was opinion; we had good evidential arguments for 33%). This debate went on a long time. Previously Kennedy had no problem finding "confirmation" of his assertion of the "missile gap" during the 1960 election, although there was no missile gap -- or rather, there was, but it was in our favor, not that of USSR. I have no data on the assertion that Obama was undermining Mubarak, but it is certain that Jimmy Carter was undercutting the Shah, with disastrous results for Iran, and more importantly, for American national interests. Without the Shah there was no way for Israel and Iran to cooperate; the US had to turn to supporting Iraq when the Iran-Iraq war got ugly; and many other such things happened. Ungood. Double plus ungood. ============= The Dark-Sky Movement Darkness returns.. http://buzz.yahoo.com/buzzlog/94259 Petronius =========== For a PDF copy of A Step Farther Out:
|
This week: |
Wednesday,
February 2, 2011 "Why Is This Dude Running Through A Snowstorm Holding An Ice Cream Cone?" Jerry
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/story-lab/ “There's even a meme on BuzzFeed.com with people dropping his photo onto such backgrounds as Antoine Dodson and the movie Jurassic Park.” Now that’s notoriety. He’s got his own meme. Ed It's global warming. == Global Warming/Not Warming Interesting links re "global warming" :
http://joannenova.com.au/2011/02/
http://joannenova.com.au/
http://climategate.nl/wp-content/
http://climategate.nl/wp-content/ ========== Food Riots Jerry, I noticed one of our members picked up on the food situation in Tunisia. Yes, food was the trigger. We've been in global food shortage for years now. This causes U.S. prices to rise and it causes others who cannot afford those price increases to starve. You may have noticed food costs more and the prices are rising higher than inflation in other parts of the economy? You may have also noticed the millions of deaths during this famine, but the media is too busy reporting on wardrobe malfunctions and Lady Gaga's meat purse to report on anything that matters. But, what do you expect in a nation where the President addresses the nation at a 6th grade level? (I sent a content analysis of the State of the Union 2011 address that included statistics on that matter) Ken Fromm--Atlantic Richfield--said, before he died, that food prices would go out of control as early as the end of this year. He said that having food would not be the problem, but affording the food would be the problem. He was not talking about some third world backwater, he was talking about the United States. I've been saying for years to prepare for this food shortage. These things do not happen out of a vacuum. There are indicators, which most citizens ignore. There is a progressively negative trend, which most citizens like to ignore with some childish "I think I can, I think I can, I know I can, it is" mentality. Then when you try to point these things out, many citizens call you a conspiracy theorist--and these people tend to not know the meaning of either "conspiracy" or "theory". Then, the event happens and these slogan slingers complain that there was no reason they should have believed you--even with the mountains of evidence you presented. How could they have known? After all, what you were saying flew in the face of what they wanted to believe. So, once more, we find ourselves in the awkward position of trying to confuse minds that are already made up with facts. I'll say it again. Get some food, water, weapons, and real money. When the crap hit the fan in Egypt, that's what all the people started doing. You should probably have this stuff stocked in case of tornado, earthquake, hurricane, or whatever natural disaster is most likely to hit your area anyway. If we do not do this, we could be one of those people on the news. "Yeah, I didn't prepare for this even though my house has been destroyed four times since I was three years old and I keep rebuilding and almost dying every time this happens. I just can't figure it out. Well, I'll rebuild and I'll be damned if I am going to take emergency survival measures to protect myself and my family. I'm certainly not going to move to higher ground." If this letter sounds harsh, try being unprepared in an emergency. -------- BDAB, As you know, I was once an editor of SURVIVE Magazine... =========== Joel Rosenberg suffers from some *serious* misconceptions about Ataturk and the Kemalists. He seems to think that they were and are 'moderate Muslims' - when in reality, they were and are *atheists* who ruthlessly suppressed cultural Islam in Turkey to the degree practicable in those environs, until we ended up handing the Turkish Islamists their trump card with the invasion of Iraq and our blind support of the Kurds. ------- Roland Dobbins Ataturk hanged people for wearing the fez. Secularism was imposed rather mercilessly. The Army later hanged some ministers for getting too Islamic. But that was a while ago, and the times they are a'changing. There are very few "moderate Muslims". Most of those are in Egypt. The Turkish Army considers Kurds to be a bigger enemy than Russians now. The Turkish parliament blocked the US insertion of the 4th Division from Turkey into Iraq in the overthrow of Saddam, requiring the US to make alliance with the Kurds. Things have gone inexorably from there. Saladin, who took Jerusalem from the Latin Kings of Jerusalem installed by the Crusaders (see The Talisman and other novels of the time) was a Kurd who united Islam (see The Flame of Islam, which with Iron Men and Saints is part of the book The Crusades by Harold Lamb). I think Joel has been under considerable personal stress recently. = = = = AH: MY MISTAKE. This is from a different Joel Rosenberg. My apologies. I should have looked closer! I was astonished, because Joel understand the Middle East quite well (which is why I invite dialog with him on the subject) and thinking the Turkish secularists are "moderate Muslims" is a pretty profound error. My apologies to my friend. I should have known better.
============= Robinson Self-Teaching Home School Curriculum I went to the Robinson web site (http://www.robinsoncurriculum.com/) for a quick look. It's a little late for my daughters (aged 14 & 17) since they have survived Florida public schools. However, the set of CDs might make for a very interesting birthing present (many years from now I hope!). I wonder how the set compares to the Britannica Great Books (http://www.britannicastore.com/great-books-of-the-western-world/invt/greatbooks/), which I received as a graduation present from my father when I received my Bachelors degrees. I was not able to see a complete list of the books that are included. However, the list I saw included a lot of public domain books. It is possible that they are all public domain. If so, I would expect the vast majority of the books to already be available in multiple eBook formats from Project Gutenberg (http://www.gutenberg.org/wiki/Main_Page). And any public domain books that aren't already available from Project Gutenberg should probably be added to library through Distributed Proofreaders (http://www.pgdp.net/c/). Since Robinson has gone to the trouble of compiling all these works into a single source, I'm not going to recommend that someone else take his list and create a CD with Kindle or ePub versions of all the books. However, there isn't anything stopping Robinson from adding the Gutenberg Kindle or ePub versions to the existing CD set. He could also add his additional material (curriculum, references, etc.) in Kindle and ePub format by converting his existing file -- I'm assuming he composed it using a word processor and still has the file rather than on a manual typewriter -- using Calibre (http://calibre-ebook.com/), the eBook management program to convert it to an eBook format. Yes, he would be distributing the books without DRM. But he's already distributing the CDs that way. I wonder if they are available through one of the pirate torrent sites. I'm trying to figure out if someone pirating his CDs is better than pirating porn. Yes, it's lowering his revenue for work he did compiling the set, etc. On the other hand, it's good to see that someone is interesting in more than porn. (I suppose that asking people to donate a little time proofreading OCR files of public domain works on Distributed Proofreaders would be a decent thing to plug.) Fredrik Coulter At some point I may compile a DVD of recommended books for home schoolers and put it up on Amazon for a few bucks; it's another of those projects that platinum subscribers allow me to do. Just at the moment I am catching up. Robinson did a lot of work putting his materials together, and has tested the results... == : RE: Robinson Curriculum Flaw Fixing that flaw just isn't that hard. Acrobat Pro has OCR built in. All he really needs to do is hire a geeky highschooler to set things up and babysit the computer. It could churn out pdfs with the text and the image or just the text. It won't be perfect but it would be miles ahead of image files. http://familylifeboat.com Make your home a lifeboat from the storms of life. ======== 5 Professors and Watchdog Group Sue to Block Prayer Event at Air Force Academy - The Ticker - The Chronicle of Higher Education
http://chronicle.com/blogs/ticker/ I recall when chapel was compulsory at West Point ============ "More and more school districts apply these zero-tolerance policies, and common sense goes out the window." <http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/01/AR2011020104097_pf.html> - Roland Dobbins ========== Virtual Currency Jerry, With approximately 9% of all U.S. internet traffic on facebook--according to an estimate given to me by a man who works in social media for a living--facebook has influence. That is why this move severely interests me: Facebook is making a virtual currency and it controls a multimillion dollar online gaming market... http://21stcenturywire.com/2011/01/31/facebook-dollars-on-the-horizon/ -------- BDAB, Joshua Jordan, KSC Percussa Resurgo There could be profound implications of this... =========== 11% of U.S. Homes Empty Jerry, <snip> So think about it. Eleven percent of the houses in America are empty. This as builders start to get more bullish, and renting apartments becomes ever more popular. Vacancies in the apartment sector have been falling steadily and dramatically, why? Because we're still recovering emotionally from the toll of the housing crash. Younger Americans have seen what home ownership has done to their friends and families, and many want no part of it. Credit has become very nearly elitist. Home prices, whatever your particular data provider preference might be, are still falling. </snip> http://www.cnbc.com/id/41355854 -------- BDAB, Joshua Jordan, KSC Percussa Resurgo And more are under water. Thanks to Ted Kennedy, Barney Frank, and friends. ============ Lone Gurkha Defends Against 40 Men I know you have a great deal of admiration for Gurkha
soldiers. If no one else has sent you this link, I am sure you will find it
an interesting read:
http://www.logiccool.com/blog/ "A 35 year-old Gurkha soldier named Bishnu Shrestha was riding a train when he suddenly found himself in the middle of a massive robbery. 40 men armed with knives, swords and guns stormed the train and began robbing the passengers. Bishnu kept his peace while the gang snatched cell phones, jewelry and cash from other riders. But then, the thugs grabbed the 18 year-old girl sitting next to him and forcefully stripped her naked. Before the bandits could rape the poor girl in front of her helpless parents, Bishnu decided he had enough." Bruce I have this from several readers. Thanks. I held off commenting because I was considering the implications of a society in which this happens, but I am out of time. ===========
|
This week: |
Thursday,
February 3, 2011 Commodity Prices Skyrocket Jerry, Kissinger was on Bloomberg and he said that what is happening in Egypt is the first act in a larger play. Kissinger's mouth is starting to get bigger, but I hope he keeps talking. Well, not surprisingly, these events are coupled with commodity price increases:
Gold & Silver have not recovered to their recent highs, but they are holding steady at nearly double their prices before the previous rally. Gold is trading at 1352.10 and Silver at 28.71. The USDX is up to 77.64 (Isn't that depressing? It's *up* to that horrid number). In any case, the USDX is a distraction. What really matters is the price of the dollar vs. gold. The USDX is up because the other currencies in the basket that weighs against the dollar to compute the USDX are going down relative to the dollar. So, it really means, the other guys are doing worse than we are. If they aren't so good, we aren't so bad? Perhaps not, but I've always considered statements like that as coming from a loser's script. Having said all this, oil is trading at 90.19 on my list of indicators. But, the $103 high portends higher oil prices. Someone needs to get all the policy makers in one area and point over the hills and say, "You see that mess over there? That's your act. Now quit trying to be a bunch of creeps and get your act together!" I think a kick in the pants might be appropriate as well. Anyway, we might consider it. -------- BDAB, Joshua Jordan, KSC Percussa Resurgo =========== Incompetent Empire II Jerry, The Ignorati struck again! Our lack of energy policy now means that Texas needs Mexican power to turn its lights on.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110202/ -------- BDAB, ============ Social Security article in WSJ According to Mr. Blahous, benefit payments are exclusively paid out of current payroll deductions. I thought the system was better designed than that. Phil There ain't no Trust Fund. Social Security income goes into the general treasury, and is not invested in growth items (as Obama says, they don't trust the stock market). Payments are made from the general treasury. There ain't no fund. ============ : Does Everyone Need a College Degree? A new report released by Harvard Wednesday states in
some of the strongest terms yet that such a “college for all” emphasis may
actually harm many American students – keeping them from having a smooth
transition from adolescence to adulthood and a viable career. --
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Education/ Mike Flynn == Jerry - It looks like Harvard has finely caught on to what you've been saying for years.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_thelookout/ Dan See, I told you so.... Thanks ============ Spengler on Food and failed Arab states, Jerry Spengler has some interesting things to say about events in Egypt. First of all there is the food issue. He swings by the issue of genital mutilation (noting in passing that “Three-quarters of acts of genital mutilation in Egypt are executed by physicians.”), the failure of Egyptian education (“Young Tunisians and Egyptians want jobs. But . . . "many people have degrees but they do not have the skill set,"), then says, “Egypt is wallowing in backwardness, not because the Mubarak regime has suppressed the creative energies of the people, but because the people themselves cling to the most oppressive practices of traditional society. And countries can only languish in backwardness so long before some event makes their position untenable.” Then he returns to food: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MB02Ak01.html “China, not the United States or Israel, presents an existential threat to the Arab world, and through no fault of its own: rising incomes have gentrified the Asian diet and priced food staples out of the Arab budget. Whether the Egyptian regime survives the current uprising or a new one replaces it, the outcome will be a disaster of biblical proportions. The jump in food prices was the wheat-stalk that broke the camel's back.” Numbers follow. We’ll see what happens. In the meantime, it looks like the Egyptian military has adroitly maneuvered to get what they want: The anti-Mubarak protesters have stopped the president’s desire to make his son his successor; now the military can select the successor they desire. The Obama set fell into a pretty trap, took credit for persuading Mubarak to leave (but he will hold on until November) and now a large hunk of Egypt blames the US for threatening their stability – large groups of counter-demonstrators showed up after Mubarak announced he would not run for re-election, showing that public opinion is not as one-sided as the Obamanauts thought. And the Army very visibly kept control of the situation where the internal security police could not do so. Looks like they stay in power, and Obama takes a hit. Pity he’s our president and not merely a senator. Presidential hits hurt our country. Ed Mamelukes ruled Egypt for centuries. And in some ways, have since the King was deposed. No country is more than a few meals away from revolution. But people who have starved to death do not protest. ============== We're doomed U.S. Losing Resource Wars to ... Turtles <http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/ Dan Steele Doomed. If the turtles don't get us, the minnows will. And don't forget kangaroo mice. ========== More Exemptions? Jerry, We saw with Obamacare that if you are cozy with the White House, you get a waiver. Now, the same will apply to the global warming laws. <snip> Last month, the Obama EPA began enforcing new rules regulating the greenhouse gas emissions from any new or expanded power plants. </snip> So he is taking cap & trade through regulation. How is that any different from a dictatorship? Is he not attempting to create law? Maybe not. Tsarist government tends to criminal codes where anything is potentially legal or illegal and then it is all selectively enforced. The sheer number of Tsars in our country should tell us that we are living under what Robert Anton Wilson called Tsarist Occupation Government--or TSOG, the thing that ate the Constitution. I suppose none dare call it dictatorship, but I am one less than everybody. The President gave GE a waiver from his new powers that he gave himself through creative interpretation of laws. So, we have another tool for our Marxist community organizer to impose a centrally planned economy on what is left of our country. At least the waiver--in this case--will help us have more power. When will people learn, this is what happens when you trust government to the left? -------- BDAB, Joshua Jordan, KSC Percussa Resurgo It's the Chicago way. What did we expect? That Chicago politicians cease to act in that manner when they get to Washington, DC? =========== Habitable Zone <http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/feb/2/5 Of course this includes the Terran arrogance that all life is based on water... But, look at the 'insta-poll' on the page about the EPA. Though not scientific, at the time I checked the results it was 129-2 against the question, " Should the Environmental Protection Agency be authorized to impose limits unilaterally on greenhouse gas emissions?" David Couvillon Colonel, U.S. Marine Corps Reserve, Retired.; Former Governor of Wasit Province, Iraq; Righter of Wrongs; Wrong most of the time; Distinguished Expert, TV remote control; Chef de Hot Dog Excellance; Avoider of Yard Work It has allocated that position for itself. You can buy an exception. Apply to the DNC. ========== Fwd: The Story of the Egyptian Revolution [from an observer on... Fascinating... Notice the similarity of the description of the vacuum of authority last Friday to the days immediately after the fall of Baghdad in 2003. David Couvillon Colonel, U.S. Marine Corps Reserve, Retired.; Former Governor of Wasit Province, Iraq; Righter of Wrongs; Wrong most of the time; Distinguished Expert, TV remote control; Chef de Hot Dog Excellance; Avoider of Yard Work A long read for sure, but probably the best synopsis to date of the Egyptian story and situation. Take the time to read
I will add that Israel is now reminded of what happens to those who trust the United States as allies. Ask Ngo Dinh Diem. There are others. Mubarak was a partner in keeping the peace with Israel. The Muslim Brotherhood will not be. The Mamelukes are reassessing their position and powers; we can look to the Army rather than the Party as the path to follow for bright young men. Note also that well under a million people have been out in the streets. There are a lot of Egyptians who just wish things would be stable again, preferably with more economic freedom -- as in Spain under Francisco Franco. The Mamelukes are not ignorant of that history. ===================
|
This week: |
Friday,
February 4, 2011 Egypt Jerry: People refuse to understand what the consequences of closing the Suez canal would be. It will do more than just triple transit distances, transit times and operating costs for oil tankers. Because the overcapacity factor for tankers is small, closing the canal will reduce oil deliveries by at least 50%, more likely 60%. Europe's economy will collapse. There was room for reasonable people to disagree about Mubarak staying in power. He has been not just a moderate, but a loyal ally that has honored the peace with Israel and supported the US in the Gulf War. As the old saying went, he was a dictator but he was our dictator. This will no longer be true even if he stays in power. The casual manner in which the US has publicly undermined Mubarak will have profound consequences far beyond Egypt. The limited scope of the demonstrations confirms your opinion that the Egyptian army will ultimately make the critical decisions and there is little evidence of dissent within the army. However; even if the Army chooses to reject radical Islamic fundamentalism, there is zero chance that the Generals will ever trust the United States again. I'm certain that US allies around the world, including Korea, Japan, and NATO allies in Europe; are reassessing the reliability of the US. I would expect all Governments within the Muslim world to severely distance themselves from the US. They may choose to strengthen alliances among themselves to deter US intervention. A pan Islamic alliance that includes Iran and Pakistan would become a de facto caliphate with a credible nuclear arsenal. Israel obviously has some serious soul searching to do. They would be nuts to rely on the US ever again. I expect that a serious rift will develop between Israel and America's Jewish community that so enthusiastically supported Obama. Israel's choices will be to form alliances with Russia, China or India, or submit to becoming Dimini within the Caliphate. This later choice would seriously enhance the technological and nuclear capabilities of the Caliphate. NYC Jews might get nuked with missiles made in Israel. Personally, I'd considerate poetic justice as well as an example of evolution in action. Obviously, energy policy will become paramount in the US. Global warming theology will be rejected. Hopefully; many of the apostles will be publicly stoned or crucified. The Us will no longer be able to support a space program so it is reasonable to dismantle NASA as punishment for it's proselytizing. Short term solution will be to exploit our naval dominance to ensure that the US gets preferential access to oil in Canada and Latin America. IMO, the only nationally known politician who has consistently embraced a coherent energy policy is Governor Palin. This might seem ridiculous, but Palin reminds me of the school teacher who became President in the new Battlestar Galactica series. After the Ceylon attack wiped out all the human colonies, she explained the strategic situation to Adama to restrain him from launching a counterattack. "this war is over. We lost. Now we run away and start having babies.". Gov Palin has that type of essential insight. The key to the US economic survival is energy. She knows the Petroleum industry forwards, backwards and sideways. She doesn't understand the details of nukes, but she is educable. Have you considered sending her a copy of A Step Further Out? It would be better received from you rather than someone like me. Her husband is listed in the Wassilla Phone book. Jim Crawford A long time ago, Nasser proclaimed the United Arab Republic:
Iraq and Jordan then formed an alliance known as the United Arab Kingdom. There is a long history in the Middle East that most are not aware of; I would suspect that Obama has no clue about Middle East history before or since the Six Day War; or of the mortal peril Israel found itself in back in those days, when every few years Egypt led another attempt to unite the Arab world against Israel as Saladin united the Arab world against the Latin Kingdom of Jerusalem. Everyone predicted war, war to the knife, endless war. In those times the hadith -- the non-Koran sayings of Mohammed -- were widely taught in public schools throughout the Middle East. Those include
This hadith is a part of the charter of Hamas, which is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. Then came Sadat, who made peace with Israel. He was assassinated by the Muslim Brotherhood for doing so. His successor was Mubarak; and there has not been a united Arab-Israel war since that time. Some Israelis remember when the entire nation mobilized to defend itself against waves of Syrian tanks in the Golan Heights, and Egyptian armored armies coming across the Suez canal. In those days it was well known: there would be war, and the Arabs only had to win once. They could be defeated time and again, but they were fewer than 7 million Jews in a sea of Arabs (100 million and more). The Latin Kingdom of Jerusalem endured for a century. The Crusaders won every battle of uprising until Saladin united the Arabs. Then came Sadat, and after him Mubarak. Since Mubarak there have been diplomatic relations between Egypt and Israel, and while relations have sometimes been strained, there has not been war. Should the United States turn out Mubarak because one hundred thousand (out of 78 million) are encamped in the city square? Apparently our President thinks so. The decision will be made by the Egyptian Army, not by Obama; but I wonder if Mubarak's successor will be a great friend to the United States? ============
global warming /several feet of snow... Good morning I follow the global warming controversy and you have several good points regarding how the warm weather produces large amounts of snow. The basics of the argument seem to be that because the temperature is higher the amount of water vapour in the air is higher through increased evaporation . The snow results when the warm water laden air meets the cold artic air that we in Canada are so pleased to supply you with in large amounts during the winter months. The increased water load in the air due to the increased evaporation is the culprit.... The problem at the moment is the Gulf of Mexico is at the same temperature if not a bit lower than the recent mean levels during low snow years, the explanation for this seems to be lost in Mr. Gores internet somewhere. Regards Glen Snow in the United States except for Florida generally comes from water vapor picked up in the Pacific, not the Gulf. Our climate models do not really predict much, although they can be wrenched to explain nearly anything that happens -- much like the systematic theories of behavior put forth by Freud and Hubbard. Warm air holds more water vapor; so warming will transport more water. Of course for a long time the AGW people predicted drought, not more rain, from warming. The truth seems to be that no one knows much about predicting climate. I would add that we're not as proficient at measuring climate change trends as we think we are. == RE: global warming /several feet of snow... When the predictors can predict what they are having for lunch on consecutive days I will be more inclined to accept some of their predictions. I was referring to the bulk of the winter snow in the Midwest and up into Canada( home) . Last week a blast came straight from the gulf and is now giving the Maritimes its full attention. The temperature issue would be the same for the west coast as it is for here, how does colder source water result in more evaporation and a higher moisture content in order for snow or rain fall levels to increase? The La Nina that is currently in the Pacific is a cold water event, in theory it should result in lower water temps which would reduce evaporation and moisture loads . That is the question nobody wants to answer this week Glen Indeed. I do not claim to have weather predictive powers. I do note that Earth has been warming since about 1820, at about 1 degree a century, and so that's the way I would bet it, but I wouldn't bet a lot. I remember when everyone was certain that the warming trend was over and we were headed for another Little Ice Age -- or, some said, for a return to The Ice as the interglacial period returns. Then they discovered Global Warming. ===============w f g
|
This week: | Saturday,
February 5, 2011 I took the day off.
|
This week: | Sunday, February
6, 2011 Reagan's Birthday I took the day off.
The current page will always have the name currentmail.html and may be bookmarked. For previous weeks, go to the MAIL HOME PAGE. FOR THE CURRENT VIEW PAGE CLICK HERE If you are not paying for this place, click here... IF YOU SEND MAIL it may be published; if you want it private SAY SO AT THE TOP of the mail. I try to respect confidences, but there is only me, and this is Chaos Manor. If you want a mail address other than the one from which you sent the mail to appear, PUT THAT AT THE END OF THE LETTER as a signature. In general, put the name you want at the end of the letter: if you put no address there none will be posted, but I do want some kind of name, or explicitly to say (name withheld). Note that if you don't put a name in the bottom of the letter I have to get one from the header. This takes time I don't have, and may end up with a name and address you didn't want on the letter. Do us both a favor: sign your letters to me with the name and address (or no address) as you want them posted. Also, repeat the subject as the first line of the mail. That also saves me time. I try to answer mail, but mostly I can't get to all of it. I read it all, although not always the instant it comes in. I do have books to write too... I am reminded of H. P. Lovecraft who slowly starved to death while answering fan mail. Search engine:
or the freefind search
If you subscribed: If you didn't and haven't, why not? Search: type in string and press return.
For platinum subscription: For a PDF copy of A Step Farther Out: = = = = = = = = = = For a Regular Subscription click here: = = = = = = = = Strategy of Technology in pdf format:
To order the nose pump I recommend, click on the banner below:
Entire Site Copyright, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 by Jerry E. Pournelle. All rights reserved. |