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Mail 660 January 31 - February 6, 2011

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Monday  January 31, 2011

Subject: Robinson Self-Teaching Home School Curriculum
 <http://www.amazon.com/Robinson-Self-Teaching-
Home-School-Curriculum/dp/B000SHZCLM/ref=cm_
cr_pr_product_top

I looked into the Robinson Curriculum. After a lot of poking around I found that program consists of 22 CD's worth of books scanned in the tiff image format. This is inconvenient to say the least. Tiff images are incompatible with EVERY EREADER on the market. Some users have resorted to converting whole set into PDF's. That has to be a very time consuming process, resulting in huge files that are impossible to reformat or search.

It is a shame that this fine program has this one glaring negative. But people should be aware of it before they purchase the program.

Sincerely,
Cynthia Allingham

Clearly a pioneer program and clearly one that ought to be reformulated. I recommended the program because of its results and from my inspection of the curriculum; I had not noted the format, which is really unfortunate. It ought to be available for transfer to iPad or Nook or Kindle.

Of course translating into some other eBook format takes time that I am pretty sure Robinson doesn't have, but readers should understand that limit.

================

Letter from England

Telegraph story on current events in Egypt: <http://tinyurl.com/5vyfso8>. I had a long phone call Friday from one of my old PhD students who lives in Egypt about these events. Nobody knows what's happening.

 Pure inanity: <http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/01/28/gatwick_gun/>

 The value of committed marriage: <http://tinyurl.com/6ygh4fl>

 The Franco regime appears to have approached the current North Korean government in its corruption, but you have to visit Spain to see the real evidence: <http://tinyurl.com/4rb9os9>

 Laffer curve? <http://tinyurl.com/5vmumzg>

 Too powerful a central government means the consequences of major policy changes aren't thought through: <http://tinyurl.com/64fkcov>. Of course, you can have the reverse, too, where nothing gets changed in time.

 The UK working class is very risk-averse. This will help take university degrees out of consideration: <http://tinyurl.com/6ea8jqt>

 The editors of Nature Neuroscience believe the Government policies will eliminate research-led growth in the UK: <http://tinyurl.com/6hruv2v>

 The unions are planning to strike on March 23rd, but I don't think that's a good strategic decision. <http://tinyurl.com/4ofugpu> The problem with stagflation in the UK appears to be due to a combination of money supply growth and market failure. UK housing prices will probably experience a soft landing, so I should be safe, but I'm just wondering whether there's anything I can do to profit from the situation.

 --

Harry Erwin, PhD

"If you can't be a good example, then you'll just have to be a horrible warning." (Catherine Aird)

As it was in England before Thatcher, so shall it be in the United States; but why is England doing another trip down the Atlee/Bevin road?

==============

Energy policy

Hello Jerry,

From 'View' today: "The Iraq war was, in theory, an attempt by the US to establish liberal democracy in the Middle East. It cost the United States more than it would have cost had we invested that money on energy independence and infrastructure in the United States. Of course had "we" invested it, that is, done by use of public money, deficits, and taxation with centralized control, the results would not have been as effective as might have been, but still the results would have been to stimulate the economy. I doubt we would have the Great Recession had we chosen energy independence as a goal rather than establishing liberal democracy in the Middle East."

Spot on.

People apparently do not realize that our government has done everything short of summary execution to ensure that the US DOES NOT and WILL NOT achieve energy independence. Not now, not ever. And it has stopped short of that only because no one (so far) has been foolish or brave enough to attempt to drill a well, dig a mine, build a refinery, or build a power plant in the absence of a government sanction for the project.

As you have pointed out many times, cheap abundant energy is the key to freedom and prosperity, both of which our government views with about the same enthusiasm as a vampire does sunrise.

Bob Ludwick

While I do not share your view of the government's malicious intent, it certainly does look that way. Bonaparte said never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence, but when you get this much incompetence among supposedly smart people, one does begin to wonder. Still, the notion of a "conspiracy" that encompasses hundreds of influential elected people and thousands of their staffers seems a bit much; easier to look for more intellectual reasons. People I know well and would personally trust with nearly everything I have seem to have bought in to most of the policies I find absolutely absurd. I find that a lot. Now I am willing to believe that I am in the top part of the bell curve, but I can't conceive of being able to believe a great deal of the nonsense that seems to be public policy.

==

On Chinese nuclear plants

Dear Dr. Pournelle:

I found this link

http://energyfromthorium.com/
2011/01/30/china-initiates-tmsr/ 

on the NEPTUNUS LEX website. I thought it might interest you.

Regards, Tim Scott

Not all governments are incompetent on energy policy. Ours certainly is.

==

Subject: Key senator backs nuclear in clean energy proposal

http://billingsgazette.com/news/national/article_
8a921d93-f2fb-53ed-8f48-92018928c70d.html 

Tracy Walters, CISSP

Hope springs eternal...

===========

Carniculture! - 

I really LIKE finding stories where something science fiction took for granted starts coming true.

http://www.reuters.com/article/
2011/01/30/us-food-meat-laboratory-
feature-idUSTRE70T1WZ20110130 

R, Rose

Shades of Chicken Heart! Gravy Planet! And other old Golden Age science fiction stories.

========

Food riots 

Jerry:

Food was the trigger...(?)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/
ambroseevans_pritchard/8291470/Egypt-and-
Tunisia-usher-in-the-new-era-of-global-food-
revolutions.html 

Jim

Every country is only about three meals from a revolution. But when the mob takes to the streets in search of food, its first move is usually to burn the bakeries.

============

What Happens In the Dark (G-Rated)

http://online.wsj.com/article/
SB1000142405274870475430457
6096530105958772.html?mod=djem
EditorialPage_h 

"Most of the universe is made up of dark energy and dark matter, neither of which is fully understood or explained by current models and theories. In "The 4% Universe," Richard Panek describes the investigations of scientists."

Charles Brumbelow

Chesterton is attributed as saying "When a man ceases to believe in God, he does not then believe in nothing. He will believe in anything." I have noted that in order to be certain there is nothing special about this universe which seems extraordinarily well designed for humanity, we are now told to believe in an infinity of universes, the multi-verse, and we happen to live in one that can support us. No design or Deity needed. In the Beginning God created an infinity of Heavens and Earths -- well, no. In the beginning there were a whack of a lot of Big Bangs.

So far neither Dark Energy nor the Multiverse seem to generate falsifiable hypotheses, removing them from science and relegating them to religion. I cheerfully admit that in the absence of evidence I prefer the religion I grew up with to these new ones, but perhaps I am insufficiently flexible in my views.

===========

High speed rail fallacy

Hi Dr Pournelle

- as a crusty old scottish farmer and engineer I have been a fan of your literary output for decades ( How is Larry Niven by the way?) As a reader of Scientific American, I have also been responding to articles on high speed rail and trying to point out that they are expensive both to build and to run, and may not even be much more fuel efficient than aviation on longer journeys. They are also noisy and destructive of any intruding wildlife. In these posts I have recommended that in this time of incipient depression it would be worthwhile investing a significant sum in a prize for the best developed ETT ( evacuated tube transport ) system. Unlike any of the current transport media, ETT has the potential to be faster, quieter, weather immune, environmentally benign, durable, and use much less primary energy, than anything we presently have. Since a tube is a better structure from a rigidity and load bearing point of view than a ribbon, a double tube ( one each way ) may use less material than a highway or railroad. Even at diameters circa 4.5meters, the thickness of material to withstand one atmosphere pressure difference is quite thin. President Obama came to office with the hopes of many around the world wishing him and the US well . It was probably unrealistic to expect so much from him. Entrenched bureaucracies on both sides of the "pond", put their remorseless, and blind, empire building above the public interest. Having everything regulated, and a regulation for everything, is the ultimate self delusion of those who think that more power is always the answer to life's problems. Your website shows you are a very busy man- hope you have time for a response.

regards

Sandy Henderson

Just went for a hike with Niven.

Like many I like the idea of high speed rails, and I have been impressed with the European rail system, but I also live in a much larger country. Pardon me boy, but is that the Chattanooga ChooChoo? All very well, but airplanes are faster and cheaper, and a great deal more convenient, as I found when Roberta and I took the train to New Orleans once.

Evacuated tube transport is certainly not a flexible system; it is the ultimate in point to point. Whether it has an economic center is open to debate. Los Angeles to New York? Possibly, but it is hard to imagine a system more vulnerable to terrorism.

==================d

 

 

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Tuesday,  February 1, 2011

A Trip Down the Bevin/Attlee Road 

I had a chat with a union leader about the strike plans Monday evening. He seemed intent on fighting battles (Trident, taxation) from 35 years ago--there was no sign of a realistic awareness of current issues.

The people I see around me seem to have two goals: to protect their pensions and to decline as comfortably as possible. However, unless you think long-term in a capitalist economy, you will fall behind those who do. There are always a few people around who spend time every week thinking about how to make money from short-termism, and unless enough people plan for the long term, they will eventually own everything.

-- Harry Erwin, PhD
"If you can't be a good example, then you'll just have to be a horrible warning." (Catherine Aird)

==========

 

========

Egypt's revolution: causative factors

Dear Dr. Pournelle:

As is my wont these days, it seems that I am relying more on your estimable website to get the news, or rather, an education in the background of the news, instead of relying on the various <strike>propaganda arms</strike>, er, news media.

This has been certainly the case with the recent fracas in Egypt.

Nonetheless, perhaps because you have been busy with other things, I fear that you may not have paid enough attention to one news link in Dr. Erwin's "Letter from England". I believe that that link is worthy of your further attention. That link is: http://tinyurl.com/5vyfso8

It is a link from the London Telegraph, and the full link may be found here:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/
africaandindianocean/egypt/8289686/Egypt-
protests-Americas-secret-backing-for-rebel
-leaders-behind-uprising.html 

Hoping you are well, I am

Very truly yours,

Bernard Brandt

Egypt protests: America's secret backing for rebel leaders behind uprising

The American government secretly backed leading figures behind the Egyptian uprising who have been planning “regime change” for the past three years, The Daily Telegraph has learned.

The American Embassy in Cairo helped a young dissident attend a US-sponsored summit for activists in New York, while working to keep his identity secret from Egyptian <http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/>  state police.

On his return to Cairo in December 2008, the activist told US <http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/>  diplomats that an alliance of opposition groups had drawn up a plan to overthrow President Hosni Mubarak and install a democratic government in 2011.

<snip>

I understand there are some WikiLeak cables confirming this. If so, it says a lot about the analytical abilities of State and CIA. Wishful thinking is not a good basis for foreign policy, and apparently there are those who learned nothing from the fall of the Shah. The Company is strongly partitioned, and it is possible to find almost any opinion you want if you look hard enough for it; and if you're a senior White House guy with a particular ideology you can then say "Intelligence officers say..."

In my day the official position of the State Department and much of the Agency was that the USSR spent no more than 17% of its GDP on military pay and weapons. Others, including Possony and me, said it was above 30% (Steve Possony thought it was getting up to 40% but that was opinion; we had good evidential arguments for 33%). This debate went on a long time. Previously Kennedy had no problem finding "confirmation" of his assertion of the "missile gap" during the 1960 election, although there was no missile gap -- or rather, there was, but it was in our favor, not that of USSR.

I have no data on the assertion that Obama was undermining Mubarak, but it is certain that Jimmy Carter was undercutting the Shah, with disastrous results for Iran, and more importantly, for American national interests. Without the Shah there was no way for Israel and Iran to cooperate; the US had to turn to supporting Iraq when the Iran-Iraq war got ugly; and many other such things happened. Ungood. Double plus ungood.

=============

The Dark-Sky Movement 

Darkness returns..

http://buzz.yahoo.com/buzzlog/94259 

Petronius

===========

For a PDF copy of A Step Farther Out:

 

 

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Wednesday, February 2, 2011

"Why Is This Dude Running Through A Snowstorm Holding An Ice Cream Cone?" 

Jerry

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/story-lab/
2011/01/the_story_behind_the_ice_cream.html 

“There's even a meme on BuzzFeed.com with people dropping his photo onto such backgrounds as Antoine Dodson and the movie Jurassic Park.”

Now that’s notoriety. He’s got his own meme.

Ed

It's global warming.

==

Global Warming/Not Warming

Interesting links re "global warming" :

http://joannenova.com.au/2011/02/
the-oceans-clouds-and-cosmic-rays-
drive-the-climate-not-co2/ 

http://joannenova.com.au/
2008/10/the-missing-hotspot/ 

http://climategate.nl/wp-content/
uploads/2011/01/CO2_and_climate_v3.pdf 

http://climategate.nl/wp-content/
uploads/2010/09/KNMI_voordracht_VanAndel.pdf 

==========

Food Riots

Jerry,

I noticed one of our members picked up on the food situation in Tunisia. Yes, food was the trigger. We've been in global food shortage for years now. This causes U.S. prices to rise and it causes others who cannot afford those price increases to starve. You may have noticed food costs more and the prices are rising higher than inflation in other parts of the economy? You may have also noticed the millions of deaths during this famine, but the media is too busy reporting on wardrobe malfunctions and Lady Gaga's meat purse to report on anything that matters. But, what do you expect in a nation where the President addresses the nation at a 6th grade level? (I sent a content analysis of the State of the Union 2011 address that included statistics on that matter)

Ken Fromm--Atlantic Richfield--said, before he died, that food prices would go out of control as early as the end of this year. He said that having food would not be the problem, but affording the food would be the problem. He was not talking about some third world backwater, he was talking about the United States. I've been saying for years to prepare for this food shortage. These things do not happen out of a vacuum. There are indicators, which most citizens ignore. There is a progressively negative trend, which most citizens like to ignore with some childish "I think I can, I think I can, I know I can, it is" mentality. Then when you try to point these things out, many citizens call you a conspiracy theorist--and these people tend to not know the meaning of either "conspiracy" or "theory". Then, the event happens and these slogan slingers complain that there was no reason they should have believed you--even with the mountains of evidence you presented. How could they have known? After all, what you were saying flew in the face of what they wanted to believe. So, once more, we find ourselves in the awkward position of trying to confuse minds that are already made up with facts.

I'll say it again. Get some food, water, weapons, and real money. When the crap hit the fan in Egypt, that's what all the people started doing. You should probably have this stuff stocked in case of tornado, earthquake, hurricane, or whatever natural disaster is most likely to hit your area anyway. If we do not do this, we could be one of those people on the news. "Yeah, I didn't prepare for this even though my house has been destroyed four times since I was three years old and I keep rebuilding and almost dying every time this happens. I just can't figure it out. Well, I'll rebuild and I'll be damned if I am going to take emergency survival measures to protect myself and my family. I'm certainly not going to move to higher ground." If this letter sounds harsh, try being unprepared in an emergency.

--------

BDAB, 
Joshua Jordan, KSC Percussa Resurgo

As you know, I was once an editor of SURVIVE Magazine...

===========

Joel Rosenberg suffers from some *serious* misconceptions about Ataturk and the Kemalists.

<http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/258451/egypt-radicals-and-reformers-battle-control-movement-joel-c-rosenberg

He seems to think that they were and are 'moderate Muslims' - when in reality, they were and are *atheists* who ruthlessly suppressed cultural Islam in Turkey to the degree practicable in those environs, until we ended up handing the Turkish Islamists their trump card with the invasion of Iraq and our blind support of the Kurds.

------- Roland Dobbins

Ataturk hanged people for wearing the fez. Secularism was imposed rather mercilessly. The Army later hanged some ministers for getting too Islamic. But that was a while ago, and the times they are a'changing. There are very few "moderate Muslims". Most of those are in Egypt.

The Turkish Army considers Kurds to be a bigger enemy than Russians now. The Turkish parliament blocked the US insertion of the 4th Division from Turkey into Iraq in the overthrow of Saddam, requiring the US to make alliance with the Kurds. Things have gone inexorably from there.

Saladin, who took Jerusalem from the Latin Kings of Jerusalem installed by the Crusaders (see The Talisman and other novels of the time) was a Kurd who united Islam (see The Flame of Islam, which with Iron Men and Saints is part of the book The Crusades by Harold Lamb).

I think Joel has been under considerable personal stress recently.

= = = =

AH: MY MISTAKE. This is from a different Joel Rosenberg. My apologies. I should have looked closer!  I was astonished, because Joel understand the Middle East quite well (which is why I invite dialog with him on the subject) and thinking the Turkish secularists are "moderate Muslims" is a pretty profound error. My apologies to my friend. I should have known better.

 

 

=============

Robinson Self-Teaching Home School Curriculum

I went to the Robinson web site (http://www.robinsoncurriculum.com/) for a quick look. It's a little late for my daughters (aged 14 & 17) since they have survived Florida public schools. However, the set of CDs might make for a very interesting birthing present (many years from now I hope!). I wonder how the set compares to the Britannica Great Books (http://www.britannicastore.com/great-books-of-the-western-world/invt/greatbooks/), which I received as a graduation present from my father when I received my Bachelors degrees.

I was not able to see a complete list of the books that are included. However, the list I saw included a lot of public domain books. It is possible that they are all public domain. If so, I would expect the vast majority of the books to already be available in multiple eBook formats from Project Gutenberg (http://www.gutenberg.org/wiki/Main_Page). And any public domain books that aren't already available from Project Gutenberg should probably be added to library through Distributed Proofreaders (http://www.pgdp.net/c/).

Since Robinson has gone to the trouble of compiling all these works into a single source, I'm not going to recommend that someone else take his list and create a CD with Kindle or ePub versions of all the books. However, there isn't anything stopping Robinson from adding the Gutenberg Kindle or ePub versions to the existing CD set. He could also add his additional material (curriculum, references, etc.) in Kindle and ePub format by converting his existing file -- I'm assuming he composed it using a word processor and still has the file rather than on a manual typewriter -- using Calibre (http://calibre-ebook.com/), the eBook management program to convert it to an eBook format.

Yes, he would be distributing the books without DRM. But he's already distributing the CDs that way. I wonder if they are available through one of the pirate torrent sites. I'm trying to figure out if someone pirating his CDs is better than pirating porn. Yes, it's lowering his revenue for work he did compiling the set, etc. On the other hand, it's good to see that someone is interesting in more than porn.

(I suppose that asking people to donate a little time proofreading OCR files of public domain works on Distributed Proofreaders would be a decent thing to plug.)

Fredrik Coulter

At some point I may compile a DVD of recommended books for home schoolers and put it up on Amazon for a few bucks; it's another of those projects that platinum subscribers allow me to do. Just at the moment I am catching up. Robinson did a lot of work putting his materials together, and has tested the results...

==

: RE: Robinson Curriculum Flaw

Fixing that flaw just isn't that hard. Acrobat Pro has OCR built in. All he really needs to do is hire a geeky highschooler to set things up and babysit the computer. It could churn out pdfs with the text and the image or just the text. It won't be perfect but it would be miles ahead of image files.

http://familylifeboat.com Make your home a lifeboat from the storms of life.

========

5 Professors and Watchdog Group Sue to Block Prayer Event at Air Force Academy - The Ticker - The Chronicle of Higher Education

http://chronicle.com/blogs/ticker/
5-professors-and-watchdog-group-s
ue-to-block-prayer-event-at-air-force-
academy/30152 

I recall when chapel was compulsory at West Point

============

"More and more school districts apply these zero-tolerance policies, and common sense goes out the window."

<http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/01/AR2011020104097_pf.html>

- Roland Dobbins

==========

Virtual Currency

Jerry,

With approximately 9% of all U.S. internet traffic on facebook--according to an estimate given to me by a man who works in social media for a living--facebook has influence. That is why this move severely interests me:

Facebook is making a virtual currency and it controls a multimillion dollar online gaming market...

http://21stcenturywire.com/2011/01/31/facebook-dollars-on-the-horizon/ 

--------

BDAB,

Joshua Jordan, KSC Percussa Resurgo

There could be profound implications of this...

===========

11% of U.S. Homes Empty

Jerry,

<snip> So think about it. Eleven percent of the houses in America are empty. This as builders start to get more bullish, and renting apartments becomes ever more popular. Vacancies in the apartment sector have been falling steadily and dramatically, why? Because we're still recovering emotionally from the toll of the housing crash.

Younger Americans have seen what home ownership has done to their friends and families, and many want no part of it. Credit has become very nearly elitist. Home prices, whatever your particular data provider preference might be, are still falling.

</snip>

http://www.cnbc.com/id/41355854 

--------

BDAB, Joshua Jordan, KSC Percussa Resurgo

And more are under water. Thanks to Ted Kennedy, Barney Frank, and friends.

============

Lone Gurkha Defends Against 40 Men

I know you have a great deal of admiration for Gurkha soldiers. If no one else has sent you this link, I am sure you will find it an interesting read: http://www.logiccool.com/blog/
591281-lone-nepali-soldier-defends-potential-
rape-victim-against-40-men/ 

"A 35 year-old Gurkha soldier named Bishnu Shrestha was riding a train when he suddenly found himself in the middle of a massive robbery. 40 men armed with knives, swords and guns stormed the train and began robbing the passengers. Bishnu kept his peace while the gang snatched cell phones, jewelry and cash from other riders. But then, the thugs grabbed the 18 year-old girl sitting next to him and forcefully stripped her naked. Before the bandits could rape the poor girl in front of her helpless parents, Bishnu decided he had enough."

Bruce

I have this from several readers. Thanks. I held off commenting because I was considering the implications of a society in which this happens, but I am out of time.

===========

 

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Thursday, February 3, 2011

Commodity Prices Skyrocket

Jerry,

Kissinger was on Bloomberg and he said that what is happening in Egypt is the first act in a larger play. Kissinger's mouth is starting to get bigger, but I hope he keeps talking. Well, not surprisingly, these events are coupled with commodity price increases:

<snip>

World food prices reached their highest level ever recorded in January and are set to keep rising for months, the UN food agency said on Thursday, warning that the hardest-hit countries could face turmoil.

</snip>

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?
id=CNG.0bcf7660807b5b8e782fa73f
510af552.471&show_article=1 

<snip>

Brent crude rallied to a 28-month high above $103 on Thursday as the political crisis in Egypt erupted into violence, sparking fresh concern over energy supplies in the crude-rich Middle East.

</snip>

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?
id=CNG.155b621fd0222d640f22c8ee8
ab21457.b01&show_article=1 

Gold & Silver have not recovered to their recent highs, but they are holding steady at nearly double their prices before the previous rally. Gold is trading at 1352.10 and Silver at 28.71. The USDX is up to 77.64 (Isn't that depressing? It's *up* to that horrid number). In any case, the USDX is a distraction. What really matters is the price of the dollar vs. gold. The USDX is up because the other currencies in the basket that weighs against the dollar to compute the USDX are going down relative to the dollar. So, it really means, the other guys are doing worse than we are. If they aren't so good, we aren't so bad? Perhaps not, but I've always considered statements like that as coming from a loser's script.

Having said all this, oil is trading at 90.19 on my list of indicators. But, the $103 high portends higher oil prices. Someone needs to get all the policy makers in one area and point over the hills and say, "You see that mess over there? That's your act. Now quit trying to be a bunch of creeps and get your act together!" I think a kick in the pants might be appropriate as well. Anyway, we might consider it.

--------

BDAB, Joshua Jordan, KSC Percussa Resurgo

===========

Incompetent Empire II

Jerry,

The Ignorati struck again! Our lack of energy policy now means that Texas needs Mexican power to turn its lights on.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110202/
ts_alt_afp/mexicousweatherstorm_20110
202234748 

--------

BDAB,
Joshua Jordan, KSC Percussa Resurgo

============

Social Security article in WSJ

According to Mr. Blahous, benefit payments are exclusively paid out of current payroll deductions. I thought the system was better designed than that.

Phil

There ain't no Trust Fund. Social Security income goes into the general treasury, and is not invested in growth items (as Obama says, they don't trust the stock market). Payments are made from the general treasury. There ain't no fund.

============

: Does Everyone Need a College Degree?

A new report released by Harvard Wednesday states in some of the strongest terms yet that such a “college for all” emphasis may actually harm many American students – keeping them from having a smooth transition from adolescence to adulthood and a viable career. -- http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Education/
2011/0202/Does-everyone-need-a-college-
degree-Maybe-not-says-Harvard-study

Mike Flynn

==

Jerry -

It looks like Harvard has finely caught on to what you've been saying for years.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_thelookout/
20110202/us_yblog_thelookout/study-says-
college-isnt-for-everyone 

Dan

See, I told you so.... Thanks

============

Spengler on Food and failed Arab states, 

Jerry

Spengler has some interesting things to say about events in Egypt. First of all there is the food issue. He swings by the issue of genital mutilation (noting in passing that “Three-quarters of acts of genital mutilation in Egypt are executed by physicians.”), the failure of Egyptian education (“Young Tunisians and Egyptians want jobs. But . . . "many people have degrees but they do not have the skill set,"), then says, “Egypt is wallowing in backwardness, not because the Mubarak regime has suppressed the creative energies of the people, but because the people themselves cling to the most oppressive practices of traditional society. And countries can only languish in backwardness so long before some event makes their position untenable.” Then he returns to food:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MB02Ak01.html 

“China, not the United States or Israel, presents an existential threat to the Arab world, and through no fault of its own: rising incomes have gentrified the Asian diet and priced food staples out of the Arab budget. Whether the Egyptian regime survives the current uprising or a new one replaces it, the outcome will be a disaster of biblical proportions. The jump in food prices was the wheat-stalk that broke the camel's back.” Numbers follow.

We’ll see what happens.

In the meantime, it looks like the Egyptian military has adroitly maneuvered to get what they want: The anti-Mubarak protesters have stopped the president’s desire to make his son his successor; now the military can select the successor they desire. The Obama set fell into a pretty trap, took credit for persuading Mubarak to leave (but he will hold on until November) and now a large hunk of Egypt blames the US for threatening their stability – large groups of counter-demonstrators showed up after Mubarak announced he would not run for re-election, showing that public opinion is not as one-sided as the Obamanauts thought. And the Army very visibly kept control of the situation where the internal security police could not do so. Looks like they stay in power, and Obama takes a hit. Pity he’s our president and not merely a senator. Presidential hits hurt our country.

Ed

Mamelukes ruled Egypt for centuries. And in some ways, have since the King was deposed.

No country is more than a few meals away from revolution. But people who have starved to death do not protest.

==============

We're doomed

U.S. Losing Resource Wars to ... Turtles <http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/
2011/02/02/the_rare_earths_butterfly_effect_99375.html

Dan Steele

Doomed. If the turtles don't get us, the minnows will. And don't forget kangaroo mice.

==========

More Exemptions?

Jerry,

We saw with Obamacare that if you are cozy with the White House, you get a waiver. Now, the same will apply to the global warming laws.

<snip>

Last month, the Obama EPA began enforcing new rules regulating the greenhouse gas emissions from any new or expanded power plants.

</snip>

So he is taking cap & trade through regulation. How is that any different from a dictatorship? Is he not attempting to create law? Maybe not. Tsarist government tends to criminal codes where anything is potentially legal or illegal and then it is all selectively enforced. The sheer number of Tsars in our country should tell us that we are living under what Robert Anton Wilson called Tsarist Occupation Government--or TSOG, the thing that ate the Constitution. I suppose none dare call it dictatorship, but I am one less than everybody.

The President gave GE a waiver from his new powers that he gave himself through creative interpretation of laws. So, we have another tool for our Marxist community organizer to impose a centrally planned economy on what is left of our country. At least the waiver--in this case--will help us have more power. When will people learn, this is what happens when you trust government to the left?

--------

BDAB, Joshua Jordan, KSC Percussa Resurgo

It's the Chicago way. What did we expect? That Chicago politicians cease to act in that manner when they get to Washington, DC?

===========

Habitable Zone

<http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/feb/2/5
-earth-sized-planets-spied-in-habitable-zone/?utm_
source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS>

 Of course this includes the Terran arrogance that all life is based on water...

But, look at the 'insta-poll' on the page about the EPA. Though not scientific, at the time I checked the results it was 129-2 against the question, "

Should the Environmental Protection Agency be authorized to impose limits unilaterally on greenhouse gas emissions?"

David Couvillon Colonel, U.S. Marine Corps Reserve, Retired.; Former Governor of Wasit Province, Iraq; Righter of Wrongs; Wrong most of the time; Distinguished Expert, TV remote control; Chef de Hot Dog Excellance; Avoider of Yard Work

It has allocated that position for itself. You can buy an exception. Apply to the DNC.

==========

Fwd: The Story of the Egyptian Revolution [from an observer on...

Fascinating...

Notice the similarity of the description of the vacuum of authority last Friday to the days immediately after the fall of Baghdad in 2003.

David Couvillon Colonel, U.S. Marine Corps Reserve, Retired.; Former Governor of Wasit Province, Iraq; Righter of Wrongs; Wrong most of the time; Distinguished Expert, TV remote control; Chef de Hot Dog Excellance; Avoider of Yard Work 

[skip this]

A long read for sure, but probably the best synopsis to date of the Egyptian story and situation. Take the time to read

February 02, 2011

The Story of the Egyptian Revolution *By* *Sam Tadros*

A friend of mine in academia forwarded this email to me from an Egyptian student whose good sense he vouches for. He tells a story very different than that most of you are seeing on television or reading in your papers. Unless the author gives me permission to reveal his identity, I am not at liberty to disclose it. [Update: The author Sam Tadros has given his pemrission to publish his name] Clarice Feldman

**** My apologies for the length of this article, but I see it as extremely important to tell the whole story as it happened – and will happen. – (from this person’s viewpoint)

The Story of the Egyptian Revolution

One week ago, Egypt was a stable authoritarian regime, prospects of change were minimal and every expert in Washington would have betted on the endurance of its regime. Today, Egypt is in a state of chaos. The regime, even after using its mightiest sword is not able to control the country and the streets of Egypt are in a state of utter lawlessness. As the world stands in awe, confusion, and worry at the unfolding events, perhaps it is important to write the evolving story that is happening in Egypt before any reflections can be made on them.

Contrary to pundits, it turns out that the Egyptian regime was neither stable nor secure. The lack of its stability is not a reflection of its weakness or lack of a resolve to oppress. It is a reflection of its inherent contradiction to the natural desire of men to enjoy their basic freedoms. Egyptians might not know what democracy actually means, but that does not make the concept any less desirable. Perhaps it is precisely its vagueness and abstraction that makes the concept all the more desirable.

For two weeks calls were made using new social media tools for a mass demonstration on the 25^th of January. Observers dismissed those calls as another virtual activism that would not result in anything. Other calls in the past had resulted in very small public support and the demonstrations were limited to the familiar faces of political activists numbering in the hundreds. As the day progressed, the observers seemed to be correct in their skepticism. While the demonstrations were certainly larger than previous ones, numbering perhaps 15,000 in Cairo, they were nothing worrisome for the regime. They were certainly much smaller than the ones in 2003 against the Iraq War. The police force was largely tolerating and when they decided to empty Tahrir Square, where the demonstrators had camped for the night, it took them less than 5 minutes to do so.

But beneath that, things were very different. The social media tools had given people something that they had lacked previously, an independent means of communication and propaganda. Hundreds of thousands of young Egyptians in a matter of minutes were seeing the demonstration videos being uploaded on youtube. For an apolitical generation that had never shown interest in such events the demonstration was unprecedented. More remarkable they were tremendously exaggerated. At a moment when no more than 500 demonstrators had started gathering in that early morning, an Egyptian opposition leader could confidently tweet that he was leading 100,000 in Tahrir Square. And it stuck.

It should come as no surprise to anyone that after 58 years of organized state propaganda, people would not believe for a second the government's media machine and its coverage of the events. Why they chose to believe the alternative propaganda needs more explaining. People believed the twitter messages and the facebook postings because they wanted to believe them. Tunisia had broken the barrier for many people. It mattered not that the situation and ruling formula in Tunisia is very different than the one in Egypt. Perceptions were more important than reality. If the Tunisians could do it, then so could we. With 15,000 demonstrating in Cairo, Egyptians were already texting each other with stories of the President's son escape. The only debate being whether Hosni Mubarak would escape to London or Saudi Arabia.

The next day the demonstrations continued with a promise of a return on Friday the 28^th after Friday Prayers in Mosques. The regime started panicking at this moment. This was simply something they did not understand. Imagine for a second Mubarak's advisors trying to explain to the 83 year old dictator what twitter is in the first place. What was more worrying for them was that the only real force in Egyptian politics, the Muslim Brotherhood, announced its intention of joining the demonstrations. Suddenly they were faced with the prospect of hundreds of thousands of demonstrators from every Mosque in the country. They acted as every panicking authoritarian regime would act. They acted stupidly.

The internet was cut off in Egypt. Mobile phone companies were ordered to suspend services. With tools of communication disrupted the regime was hopeful that they had things under control. Simultaneously they started standard arrests of Muslim Brotherhood leaders. Things seemed for them under control. But they weren't. With every stupid panicking move by the regime, the narrative of its weakness was only reinforced for the people. People saw a regime that was scarred of the internet and they rightfully calculated that this was their golden opportunity.

Friday was an unprecedented event in Egypt. While it is impossible to guess the number of protestors on the streets that day, it is safe to say that they exceeded one million. Every Mosque was a launching site for a demonstration. The Islamists were out in full force. The slogans that day were quite different than the previous ones. Islamic slogans and activists were clearly visible. The security forces were faced with wave after wave of protestors that came from every street. In 4 hours, the security forces were collapsing.

Whether Mubarak was fully previously told about the deteriorating situation for the previous days or whether it was at this moment that he suddenly realized the gravity of the situation remains unknown. One thing is sure; the regime was not prepared for this. It is at this moment that the decision was taken to call in the army, announce a curfew, and withdraw the security forces. In reality the army did not deploy immediately. The troops and tanks that appeared in the streets were the Presidential Guard units deployed in Cairo.

The army was actually still far away from deploying in Cairo. Because no one had imagined that the situation would totally be out of control, the level of alert of the army was never raised. Officers were not called from their vacations and the whole top command of the Egyptian army was actually thousands of miles away in Washington for strategic prearranged discussions at the Pentagon. Moreover, the plan of deployment of the army never imagined a scenario where people would defy it. No one imagined that the army would be required to put a tank in every street. They thought that the mere mention of the army being called in, the sight of a few tanks, and the announcement of the curfew, would make people immediately go home scared. People did not.

The Egyptian army is hugely popular. This is due to the established mythology of Egyptian politics. The army, which is in all aspects the regime, is seen as separate by the people. The army is viewed as clean (not like the corrupt government), efficient (they do build bridges fast), and more importantly the heroes that defeated Israel in 1973 (it is no use to debate that point with an Egyptian). With the troops and tanks appearing in the streets, people actually thought the army was on their side, whatever that might mean. With an announced Presidential addressed that kept being delayed; Egyptians prepared themselves for an announcement of Mubarak's resignation.

Mubarak was at a loss. The troops could not possibly shoot people. That would not only destroy the army's reputation, but more importantly the troops practically could not do it. These guys after all were not trained for this. They do not have rubber bullets or tear gas. They only have live ammunition and tanks and the thought of actually using them in this situation was never an option. To the surprise of the regime, people just celebrated the army's arrival and started dancing in the streets defying the curfew. More importantly something else was happening as well. The looting was starting.

The decision to withdraw the security forces was a natural decision. First they were utterly exhausted and needed the rest to regroup. Secondly, as the security forces had become the symbol of the regime's oppression their withdrawal was seen as necessary to calm things. Thirdly and most importantly, in the protocol of operations there could not possibly be two forces with arms in the same street receiving orders from two different structures of command. Even with the best of coordination, a disaster is bound to happen.

What was not calculated however is the fact that suddenly a vacuum was created. The security forces were withdrawn and the army was not deployed yet. In this gap an opportunity presented itself for everyone. The scenes were unbelievable. First there was massive anger vented at symbols of state oppression such as the ruling party's headquarters. More drastically, in what can only be described as systematic targeting, police stations everywhere were attacked. Every police station in Cairo was looted, the weapons in them stolen and then burned. At the same time, massive looting was taking place. Even the Egyptian Museum, which hosts some of the world's greatest heritage, was not spared.

Saturday was indescribable. Nothing that I write can describe the utter state of lawlessness that prevailed. Every Egyptian prison was attacked by organized groups trying to free the prisoners inside. In the case of the prisons holding regular criminals this was done by their families and friends. In the case of the prisons with the political prisoners this was done by the Islamists. Bulldozers were used in those attacks and the weapons available from the looting of police stations were available. Nearly all the prisons fell. The prison forces simply could not deal with such an onslaught and no reinforcements were available. Nearly every terrorist held in the Egyptian prisons from those that bombed the Alexandria Church less than a month ago to the Murderer of Anwar El Sadat was freed, the later reportedly being arrested again tonight.

On the streets of Cairo it was the scene of a jungle. With no law enforcement in town and the army at a loss at how to deal with it, it was the golden opportunity for everyone. In a city that is surrounded with slums, thousands of thieves fell on their neighboring richer districts. People were robbed in broad daylight, houses were invaded, and stores looted and burned. Egypt had suddenly fallen back to the State of Nature. Panicking, people started grabbing whatever weapon they could find and forming groups to protect their houses. As the day progressed the street defense committees became more organized. Every building had its men standing in front of it with everything they could find from personal guns, knives to sticks. Women started preparing Molotov bombs using alcohol bottles. Street committees started coordinating themselves. Every major crossroad had now groups of citizens stopping all passing cars checking their ID cards and searching the cars for weapons. Machine guns were in high demand and were sold in the streets.

I do not aim to turn this into a personal story, but those people are my friends and family. It is a personal story to me. My neighbors were all stationed in my father-in-law's house with men on the roof to lookout for possible attackers. A friend of mine was shot at by a gang of thieves and another actually killed one of them to defend his house and wife. Another friend's brother arrested 37 thieves that day. The army's only role in all of this was to pass by each area to pick up the arrested thieves. Army officers informed the street committees that anyone with an illegal weapon should not worry and should use it. Any death of one of the thieves would not be punished.

On the political front the story was evolving. More troops were pouring into Cairo. Mubarak decided to appoint Omar Suliman as Vice President and Ahmed Shafik as Prime Minister. Both are military men, Suliman being the Chief of the Egyptian Intelligence Service and Shafik being the former commander of the Air Forces. To understand the moves one has to understand the nature of the ruling coalition in Egypt and the role of the army in it.

The Egyptian regime has been based since 1952 on a coalition between the army and the bureaucrats. In this regard it fits perfectly into O'Donnell's Bureaucratic Authoritarian model. The army is fully in control of both actual power and the economy. Ex-army officers are appointed to run state enterprises and high level administrative positions. More importantly the army has an enormous economic arm that runs enterprises as diverse as construction companies and food distribution chains. In the late 90's this picture began to change.

It is no news for anyone following Egyptian politics that Gamal Mubarak, the President's son was being groomed to follow his father. In reality, the elder Mubarak was never fully behind that scenario. Whether it was a real assessment of his son's capabilities or of the acceptance of the army to such a scenario, Mubarak was hesitant. It was his wife who was heavily pushing that scenario. Gamal, step by step started rising inside the ruling NDP party. With him he brought two groups to the ruling coalition. First were the Western educated economic technocrats trained in international financial institutions they shared what is generally described as neo-liberal economic policies labeled the Washington Consensus. Secondly was the growing business community that was emerging in Egypt. Together they started the process of both restructuring the Egyptian economy and the ruling party.

For the technocrats it was the fiscal and economic policy that was their domain and they performed miracles. The Egyptian economy under the Nazif government showed unprecedented growth. The currency was devalued, investment was pouring in, and exports were growing. Even the economic crisis did not dramatically effect Egypt. The real disaster in all of this however is that no one actually rationalized or defended those policies to the Egyptian public. The country was moving towards a full capitalist system but no explained why that was needed or why it was ultimately beneficial. While such restructuring is naturally painful for a population that was dependent on the government for all its needs, the people were fed the same socialist rhetoric nonetheless. It mattered very little that the country was improving economically, people did not see that. It is not that the effects were not trickling down, they were. It is that the people were used to the nanny state for so many years that they could not understand why the government was no longer providing them with those services.

Businessmen greatly benefited from the economic improvement. Business was good and political aspirations started to emerge for them. First it was a Parliament seat that they desired. It offered immunity from prosecution after all. With Gamal however, they suddenly had a higher opportunity. Gamal wanted to recreate the ruling NDP party. The NDP, never actually a real party and more of a mass valueless organization of state operation was suddenly turning into a real party. Businessmen like Ahmed Ezz, the steel tycoon saw a golden opportunity. They took full control with Gamal of the party and with it power.

The army never liked Gamal or his friends. Gamal had never served in the military. To add insult to injury his friends were threatening the dominance of the army. The technocrat's neo-liberal policies were threatening the army's dominance of the closed economy and the party was becoming step by step an actual organization that competes with the army officers in filling administrative positions. Suddenly the doors to power in Egypt were not a military career but a party ID card. As long as the President was there however, the army was silent. The army is 100% loyal to the President. He is an October War hero and their Commander in Chief. He is seen as an Egyptian patriot by them who has served his country well. Moreover Gamal Abdel Nasser having conducted his own military coup in 1952 put mechanisms in the army to ensure that no one else would do the same and remove him.

With the unfolding events the army was finally able to put its narrative to the President and have his support behind it. The army's narrative is that Gamal and his friends ruined it. Their neo-liberal policies alienated people and angered them with talks of subsidies removal, while his party gang destroyed the political system by aiming to crush all opposition. Mubarak in the past had mastered the art of playing the opposition. The opposition was always co-opted. Sizes in Parliament differed in various elections, but there was always a place there for the opposition. The last elections in 2010 were different. No opposition was allowed to win seats. By closing the legitimate political methods of raising grievances, the opposition chose the illegitimate ones in the form of street demonstrations.

Today the Egyptians are scared. They have been given a glimpse of hell and they don't like what they see. Contrary to Al Jazeera's propaganda, the Egyptian masses are not demonstrating anymore. (that is OBE)They are protecting their homes and families. The demonstration last night had 5,000 political activists participating and not 150,000 as Al Jazeera insists. At this moment, no one outside of those political activists cares less now if the President will resign or not. They have more important concerns now; security and food.

So where are we today? Well the answer is still not clear, yet a couple of conclusions are evident.

1. The Gamal inheritance scenario is finished.

2. Mubarak will not run for another Presidential term. His term ends in October and either he will serve the rest of his term or will resign once things cool down for health reasons, which are real. He is dying.

3. The army is in control now. We are heading back to the "golden age" of army rule. The "kids" are no longer in charge. The "men' are.

4. Until the economy fails again, the neo-liberal economic policies are over. Forget about an open economy for some time.

Immediately the task of the army is to stabilize the situation and enforce order. The security forces have been ordered to reappear in the streets starting tonight. The next task will be to deal with the political activists and the Muslim Brotherhood which now dominates the scene. It is anyone's guess how that will be done, but in a couple of days the Egyptians will probably be begging the army to shoot them. Third stage will be to return to normal life again with people going back to their jobs and somehow food being made available. Later on however will come the political questions.

The long term challenges are numerous. First you have a huge economic loss in terms of property destroyed. The minute the banks will be reopened, there will be a run on them and capital flight will be the key word in town. It is of course quite natural that for some time no one in his sensible mind will invest in Egypt.

Politically, the army will aim at returning to the pre-Gamal ruling formula. People will be appeased by raising salaries and increasing subsidies with the hope of silencing them. Will it be enough? That is doubtful. The Egyptians have realized for the first time that the regime is not as strong as it looked a week ago. If the army did not stop them, how will they ever be silenced? Moreover they are greatly empowered. Egyptians today feel pride in themselves. They have protected their neighborhoods and done what the army has failed to do. This empowerment will not be crushed easily.

Security wise the situation is a disaster. It might take months to arrest all those criminals again. Moreover no one has a clue how the weapons that were stolen will ever be collected again or how the security will ever regain its necessary respect to restore public order after it was defeated in 4 hours. More importantly, reports indicate that the borders in Gaza were open for the past few days. What exactly was transferred between Gaza and Egypt is anyone's guess.

You seem to wonder after all of this where El Baradei and the Egyptian opposition are. CNN's anointed leader of the Egyptian Revolution must be important to the future of Egypt. Hardly! Outside of Western media hype, El Baradei is nothing. A man that has spent less than 30 days in the past year in Egypt and hardly any time in the past 20 years is a nobody. It is entirely insulting to Egyptians to suggest otherwise. The opposition you wonder? Outside of the Muslim Brotherhood we are discussing groups that can each claim less than 5,000 actual members. With no organization, no ideas, and no leaders they are entirely irrelevant to the discussion. It is the apolitical young generation that has suddenly been transformed that is the real question here.

Where Egypt will go from here is an enigma. In a sense everything will be the same. The army that has ruled Egypt since 1952 will continue to rule it and the country will still suffer from a huge vacuum of ideas and real political alternatives. On the other hand, it will never be the same again. Once empowered, the Egyptians will not accept the status quo for long.

On the long run the Egyptian question remains the same. Nothing has changed in that regard. It is quite remarkable for people to be talking about the prospect for a democratic transition at this moment. A population that was convinced just two months ago that sharks in the Red Sea were implanted by the Israeli Intelligence Services is hardly at a stage of creating a liberal democracy in Egypt. But the status quo cannot be maintained. A lack of any meaningful political discourse in the country has to be addressed. Until someone actually starts addressing the real issues and stop the chatterbox of clichés on democracy, things will not get better at all. It will only get worse.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed] [beginning of this story]

I will add that Israel is now reminded of what happens to those who trust the United States as allies. Ask Ngo Dinh Diem. There are others. Mubarak was a partner in keeping the peace with Israel. The Muslim Brotherhood will not be.

The Mamelukes are reassessing their position and powers; we can look to the Army rather than the Party as the path to follow for bright young men.

Note also that well under a million people have been out in the streets. There are a lot of Egyptians who just wish things would be stable again, preferably with more economic freedom -- as in Spain under Francisco Franco. The Mamelukes are not ignorant of that history.

===================

 

 

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Friday,  February 4, 2011

Egypt

Jerry:

People refuse to understand what the consequences of closing the Suez canal would be. It will do more than just triple transit distances, transit times and operating costs for oil tankers. Because the overcapacity factor for tankers is small, closing the canal will reduce oil deliveries by at least 50%, more likely 60%. Europe's economy will collapse.

There was room for reasonable people to disagree about Mubarak staying in power. He has been not just a moderate, but a loyal ally that has honored the peace with Israel and supported the US in the Gulf War. As the old saying went, he was a dictator but he was our dictator. This will no longer be true even if he stays in power.

The casual manner in which the US has publicly undermined Mubarak will have profound consequences far beyond Egypt. The limited scope of the demonstrations confirms your opinion that the Egyptian army will ultimately make the critical decisions and there is little evidence of dissent within the army. However; even if the Army chooses to reject radical Islamic fundamentalism, there is zero chance that the Generals will ever trust the United States again. I'm certain that US allies around the world, including Korea, Japan, and NATO allies in Europe; are reassessing the reliability of the US. I would expect all Governments within the Muslim world to severely distance themselves from the US. They may choose to strengthen alliances among themselves to deter US intervention. A pan Islamic alliance that includes Iran and Pakistan would become a de facto caliphate with a credible nuclear arsenal.

Israel obviously has some serious soul searching to do. They would be nuts to rely on the US ever again. I expect that a serious rift will develop between Israel and America's Jewish community that so enthusiastically supported Obama. Israel's choices will be to form alliances with Russia, China or India, or submit to becoming Dimini within the Caliphate. This later choice would seriously enhance the technological and nuclear capabilities of the Caliphate. NYC Jews might get nuked with missiles made in Israel. Personally, I'd considerate poetic justice as well as an example of evolution in action.

Obviously, energy policy will become paramount in the US. Global warming theology will be rejected. Hopefully; many of the apostles will be publicly stoned or crucified. The Us will no longer be able to support a space program so it is reasonable to dismantle NASA as punishment for it's proselytizing. Short term solution will be to exploit our naval dominance to ensure that the US gets preferential access to oil in Canada and Latin America.

IMO, the only nationally known politician who has consistently embraced a coherent energy policy is Governor Palin. This might seem ridiculous, but Palin reminds me of the school teacher who became President in the new Battlestar Galactica series. After the Ceylon attack wiped out all the human colonies, she explained the strategic situation to Adama to restrain him from launching a counterattack. "this war is over. We lost. Now we run away and start having babies.". Gov Palin has that type of essential insight. The key to the US economic survival is energy. She knows the Petroleum industry forwards, backwards and sideways. She doesn't understand the details of nukes, but she is educable. Have you considered sending her a copy of A Step Further Out? It would be better received from you rather than someone like me. Her husband is listed in the Wassilla Phone book.

Jim Crawford

A long time ago, Nasser proclaimed the United Arab Republic:

The United Arab Republic (UAR) was founded in 1958 as a political union between Syria and Egypt. The union reflected a sense of Arab nationalism and solidarity (Pan-Arabism). It was largely driven by a desire to overcome dividing borders viewed by many as an artificial creation of European colonial powers. However, the union eventually collapsed in 1961 due to widespread sentiments in Syria that it had become a vehicle for furthering Egyptian hegemony.

Iraq and Jordan then formed an alliance known as the United Arab Kingdom.

There is a long history in the Middle East that most are not aware of; I would suspect that Obama has no clue about Middle East history before or since the Six Day War; or of the mortal peril Israel found itself in back in those days, when every few years Egypt led another attempt to unite the Arab world against Israel as Saladin united the Arab world against the Latin Kingdom of Jerusalem. Everyone predicted war, war to the knife, endless war. In those times the hadith -- the non-Koran sayings of Mohammed -- were widely taught in public schools throughout the Middle East. Those include

Allah's Apostle said, "The Hour will not be established until you fight with the Jews, and the stone behind which a Jew will be hiding will say. "O Muslim! There is a Jew hiding behind me, so kill him."

This hadith is a part of the charter of Hamas, which is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Then came Sadat, who made peace with Israel. He was assassinated by the Muslim Brotherhood for doing so. His successor was Mubarak; and there has not been a united Arab-Israel war since that time. Some Israelis remember when the entire nation mobilized to defend itself against waves of Syrian tanks in the Golan Heights, and Egyptian armored armies coming across the Suez canal.

In those days it was well known: there would be war, and the Arabs only had to win once. They could be defeated time and again, but they were fewer than 7 million Jews in a sea of Arabs (100 million and more). The Latin Kingdom of Jerusalem endured for a century. The Crusaders won every battle of uprising until Saladin united the Arabs.

Then came Sadat, and after him Mubarak.

Since Mubarak there have been diplomatic relations between Egypt and Israel, and while relations have sometimes been strained, there has not been war.

Should the United States turn out Mubarak because one hundred thousand (out of 78 million) are encamped in the city square?

Apparently our President thinks so. The decision will be made by the Egyptian Army, not by Obama; but I wonder if Mubarak's successor will be a great friend to the United States?

============

 

global warming /several feet of snow...

Good morning I follow the global warming controversy and you have several good points regarding how the warm weather produces large amounts of snow.

The basics of the argument seem to be that because the temperature is higher the amount of water vapour in the air is higher through increased evaporation . The snow results when the warm water laden air meets the cold artic air that we in Canada are so pleased to supply you with in large amounts during the winter months. The increased water load in the air due to the increased evaporation is the culprit....

The problem at the moment is the Gulf of Mexico is at the same temperature if not a bit lower than the recent mean levels during low snow years, the explanation for this seems to be lost in Mr. Gores internet somewhere.

Regards

Glen

Snow in the United States except for Florida generally comes from water vapor picked up in the Pacific, not the Gulf. Our climate models do not really predict much, although they can be wrenched to explain nearly anything that happens -- much like the systematic theories of behavior put forth by Freud and Hubbard.

Warm air holds more water vapor; so warming will transport more water. Of course for a long time the AGW people predicted drought, not more rain, from warming.

The truth seems to be that no one knows much about predicting climate. I would add that we're not as proficient at measuring climate change trends as we think we are.

==

RE: global warming /several feet of snow...

When the predictors can predict what they are having for lunch on consecutive days I will be more inclined to accept some of their predictions. I was referring to the bulk of the winter snow in the Midwest and up into Canada( home) . Last week a blast came straight from the gulf and is now giving the Maritimes its full attention. The temperature issue would be the same for the west coast as it is for here, how does colder source water result in more evaporation and a higher moisture content in order for snow or rain fall levels to increase? The La Nina that is currently in the Pacific is a cold water event, in theory it should result in lower water temps which would reduce evaporation and moisture loads . That is the question nobody wants to answer this week

Glen

Indeed. I do not claim to have weather predictive powers. I do note that Earth has been warming since about 1820, at about 1 degree a century, and so that's the way I would bet it, but I wouldn't bet a lot. I remember when everyone was certain that the warming trend was over and we were headed for another Little Ice Age -- or, some said, for a return to The Ice as the interglacial period returns. Then they discovered Global Warming.

===============w

f

g

 

 

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Saturday, February 5, 2011

I took the day off.

 

 

 

 

 

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Sunday,   February 6, 2011

Reagan's Birthday    

I took the day off.

 

 

 

 read book now

 

 

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IF YOU SEND MAIL it may be published; if you want it private SAY SO AT THE TOP of the mail. I try to respect confidences, but there is only me, and this is Chaos Manor. If you want a mail address other than the one from which you sent the mail to appear, PUT THAT AT THE END OF THE LETTER as a signature. In general, put the name you want at the end of the letter: if you put no address there none will be posted, but I do want some kind of name, or explicitly to say (name withheld).

Note that if you don't put a name in the bottom of the letter I have to get one from the header. This takes time I don't have, and may end up with a name and address you didn't want on the letter. Do us both a favor: sign your letters to me with the name and address (or no address) as you want them posted. Also, repeat the subject as the first line of the mail. That also saves me time.

I try to answer mail, but mostly I can't get to all of it. I read it all, although not always the instant it comes in. I do have books to write too...  I am reminded of H. P. Lovecraft who slowly starved to death while answering fan mail. 

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