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Monday  January 18, 2011

I have been working on other stuff today.

=====================d

 

 

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Tuesday,  January 18, 2011

Hansen on China, nuttiness

Jerry

This should come as no surprise. The Drudge Report has a story about NASA scientist James Hansen in China stating that Chinese Totalitarianism is superior to US Democracy because China can summon the will to confront Climate Change. This confirms my belief that Global Warming theology is nothing more than a pretext to allow a bunch of Darwinian failures who've devoted their lives to fornication rather than procreation to impose their life style choices on the rest of us.

The Tucson shooting has provoked debate about what to do with the mentally I'll. Your Libertarian instincts are valid. I would contend that nuttiness doesn't pose a threat unless that nuttiness coincides with criminal behavior.

It is hardly surprising that Hansen trusts scientists and government more than the public. http://www.climatedepot.com/

==

One more thing to worry about

Dear Dr. Pournelle:

I just came across this

http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_thelookout/20110117/
us_yblog_thelookout/scientists-warn-california-
could-be-struck-by-winter-superstorm 

and thought it might interest you.

Regards, Tim Scott

Well, it is 78 degrees and clear blue skies outside in Hollywood today. The forecast is that spring will continue.

And of course the US is due for a major solar storm; they happen every couple of centuries, and the last one was in 1859. I do not think global warming plays any part in these.

====================

China Watch

Jerry,

While the media is generating as much buzz as they can about this story--which is tragic and horrible--in Arizona, China is making some moves. One of those moves is in foreign aid--and I'm not talking about all the bad debts China is buying up. I am talking about foreign aid, like we offer. But, China has less bureaucratic red tape; they lack a formal, sophisticated program like ours. So, their money flows faster. More than that, our projects do subtle and integral things like make running water and maybe some crops people can eat. China's money tends to go to highly visible projects like sports stadiums that come with much celebration and fanfare. For this reason, Chinese foreign aid garners influence disproportionate to expenditures compared with U.S. foreign aid. These assumptions come through my research on China and are supported by data. I have the report that I wrote on China and the section on foreign aid references detailed sources, and I am taking most of this from my memory of crafting that document. However, there is more on the specifics occurring now at this link: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/
0/488c60f4-2281-11e0-b6a2-00144
eab49a.html#axzz1BNRIEkIS 

Notice that China's foreign aid will top the World Bank? Now that is news. I would not be surprised to see China make deeper moves into South America. Venezuela suddenly has larger reserves than Saudi Arabia. The Bush family bought land that has one of the largest aquifers in the world under it, down in South America--I forget the country. So we have more interests down there, and we can't forget that Prescott Bush did his oil business inland down in South America--even though the wells were near the coast then. I suspect we'll see China breeding influence below us. The video in the link is great, albeit depressing. The party is over.

--------

BDAB,

Joshua Jordan, KSC Percussa Resurgo

============

Jean-Louis Beaufils's email

Jean-Louis Beaufils wrote "Before you can launch any kind of weapon to strike a ship, you need to detect and acquire it first, that is you must know where it is precisely enough in space and time for the guidance package aboard the missile to be able to take over from your information. This takes a platform within direct line-of-sight to the target from the time you launch until the terminal guidance system can acquire the target for itself. You can't do this with a satellite, so you have to do it with either a plane, ship or submarine."

No, that isn't completely true. As well as over the horizon radar like the system Australia developed, there is the clever trick the Argentines used with their Exocet missiles during the Falklands War. They sent out two aircraft, a launcher that went ahead but stayed below the radar horizon of the target and a spotter further back but high enough to maintain that line of sight contact with both the missile and the target. But the spotter didn't have to do that continuously; it could take its own evasive action by dropping, moving and popping up again elsewhere in time to correct any deviations by the missile, though it usually didn't have to until the missile had acquired the target as the spotter was at a greater range from the target than the launcher was. Alternatively, it was practical to alternate the spotting role between a number of spotters popping up in turn - a distributed spotting platform - although I don't think the Argentines actually did that then.

Perhaps ironically, those missiles were French, so the French do know this capability.

Also, theoretically it is possible to give a missile a search capability based on aiming it behind the target and letting it acquire traces of the target's wake, then following those until full acquisition. I don't know how far advanced that work is, but it worked for James Lovell in an emergency.

For what it's worth, even a full control, line of sight method doesn't need a plane, ship or submarine in line of sight. As well as land based radar etc. for littoral situations, spotter systems can use free or tethered aerostats and rotorcraft such as those I mentioned in an earlier email (at http://www.jerrypournelle.com/mail/2010/Q2/mail625.html#Saturday ) - and, of course, there can always be arrays of detector buoys too.

Yours sincerely,

P.M.Lawrence

Modern naval strategy and tactics is quite complex, of course. This isn't Midway. And the Falklands War was illuminating.

==

naval strike IRBM 

Jerry, Once Upon a Time, the term 'IRBM' was linked with a nuke warhead.

It need not be. And in the case of a notional Chinese naval strike weapon probably will not be.

Nor is it necessary to destroy a 100,000 ton warship to make it ineffective.

Simply hole the flight deck.

Or threaten to hole the flight deck.

A hypersonic RV that can hole a carrier flight deck may well penetrate through the ship and hull. If the ship doesn't sink immediately, repairs are many many thousands of miles away and will take many months.

As to finding and hitting the carrier, the problem of visual pattern matching was solved long ago. Use one of the new Chinese subs (doesn't even have to be a nuke sub, could be a fishing boat or a merchant container ship) to establish a 'good enough' position and course/speed for the carrier task force, launch the IRBM, and let 'obsolete' cruise missile terrain matching (outline of a carrier against the surface of the sea) take over. At IRBM ranges, 10 minutes from a milliseconds-long data burst from the tracking vessel through launch and impact is all it takes

The Chinese need not attack a CTF to make their point. They merely need to demonstrate that they have the capability to successfully do so. A demonstration on an old oil supertanker under weigh at 15 kts would do the trick.

The effectiveness and deterrence of the US Naval forces is not in the numbers of ships or planes. It is in the willingness of the US political leadership to use those forces and to consistently send those near-irreplaceable national assets into harms way.

Charles

===========

On the subject of a writing contest to avoid, Scalzi writes ...

http://whatever.scalzi.com/2011/01/15/todays-writing-contest-to-run-like-hell-from/ 

.brian

It's a valid warning. I would hope that none of our readers would fall for something like this.

=============

Seen in the Daily Telegraph

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/
howaboutthat/8264782/Cat-ordered-to-do-jury-
service.html?sms_ss=facebook&at_xt=4d352c31176f7136%2C0 

So Ms. Anna Esposito listed her cat, Tabby Sal, on the census as a 'pet'. Result? 'Tabby Sal' has been called to jury duty and must report 23 Mar, letter from the veterinarian certifying that she is a housecat notwithstanding.

Ah, well. If Caligula could make one of his horses a consul, I suppose we can survive a cat on jury duty.

But it does seem as if Disney has done us no favors. If you pair this with the human-hunting society in Britain, it seems we are having a hard time as a society distinguishing between animals and humans. How the devil can a satire magazine like The Onion stay in business, when these are the headlines of actual news organizations?

Perhaps it's best not to fight the madness. Maybe this is why we don't lock up people for being crazy anymore. Perhaps it would be simpler to lock up the sane ones ... if we can find any! :)

Respectfully,

Brian P.

=============

Experts

Alas, if this just wasn't true....

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LnlAerzwJJA/
TTHk1jNWZMI/AAAAAAAAAzg/U6_NmQ
EsTpw/s1600/firearms-identification-guide.jpg 

Let's not get started on 'tanks'!

s/f Couv

============

Robot Construction with Quadrotor Teams

There go a few more jobs from the left-hand of the bell-curve...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=W18Z3UnnS_0&feature=player_embedded#

Best Regards Paul Hayward, Auckland, New Zealand

=============

More Interesting Space News

Jerry,

This is random and more like trivia, but hey, it interests me and probably others too:

<snip> WASHINGTON – Astronomers believe they've found the oldest thing they've ever seen in the universe: It's a galaxy far, far away from a time long, long ago.

Hidden in a Hubble Space Telescope photo released earlier this year is a small smudge of light that European astronomers now calculate is a galaxy from 13.1 billion years ago. That's a time when the universe was very young, just shy of 600 million years old. That would make it the earliest and most distant galaxy seen so far.

By now the galaxy is so ancient it probably doesn't exist in its earlier form and has already merged into bigger neighbors, said Matthew Lehnert of the Paris Observatory, lead author of the study published online Wednesday in the journal Nature.

</snip>

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_sci_oldest_galaxy 

--------

BDAB,

Joshua Jordan, KSC Percussa Resurgo

===============

My Prayers Answered!!!

Jerry,

Finally some of my prayers have been answered, let's hope its not too late: http://news.yahoo.com/s/space/20101020/
sc_space/planetarydefensecoordination
officeproposedtofightasteroids 

<snip> A new report calls on NASA to establish a Planetary Defense Coordination Office to lead national and international efforts in protecting Earth against impacts by asteroids and comets. </snip>

Thank God someone finally got their priorities straight. It never made sense to me that we spend time dumping metal and chemicals on people in far off lands when we have greater threats in space. They could even market this to Obama by appealing to his latest musings that NASA should alleviate the insecurities of under developed nations -- http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/space/7875584
/Barack-Obama-Nasa-must-try-to-make-Muslims-feel-good.html 

<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/space
/7875584/Barack-Obama-Nasa-must-try-to-make-Muslims-feel-good.html>  I am going to break out a nice bottle of wine to celebrate this during dinner this evening! I'll save the cigar until this project manifests the formality of actually occurring..

--------

BDAB,

Joshua Jordan, KSC Percussa Resurgo

==========

I once read somewhere -- from the mouths of tax collectors -- that they rely on fear to gain compliance. Well, what happens when people start doing what this man did? http://articles.latimes.com/
1997-04-14/news/mn-48688_1_irs-employees  -- this article is from 1997, I'm sure the situation is not improving.. *sigh*

--------

BDAB,

Joshua Jordan, KSC Percussa Resurgo

=================w

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Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Letter from England

Covert UK police operations against protest movements begin unravelling: <http://tinyurl.com/6zpmj8u>

 Yeah! See <http://tinyurl.com/5u2mpeu>

 Legal immunity over marks is likely to become less than absolute: <http://tinyurl.com/688yhbd>

 It appears few UK students will be doing taught masters as fees rise to unaffordable levels: <http://tinyurl.com/6jmsuda>. (This is consistent with a trend I've been watching in recent years.)

 Inflation in the UK: <http://tinyurl.com/5rywato>

 --

Harry Erwin, PhD

Consultant's advice: "Pay me now or pay me later. It'll cost more later."

===========

Monday Morning News 

Hi, Jerry,

There were a number of stories in the morning news that might interest our American cousins.

First, the Met and the Home Office seem to be suffering from a bad case of French police envy. The current story is about the Met's infiltration of the environmental protest movement. The Telegraph has a story indicating there were at least 16 officers working undercover, and there are other stories of evidence being suppressed and protest demonstrations being organised and planned by the police. Here are some links: <http://tinyurl.com/6h75hgs>  <http://tinyurl.com/4sqwgou>  <http://tinyurl.com/5vehjnj>  <http://tinyurl.com/5u38sz4>  Police, naturally, are monitoring student protest planning: <http://tinyurl.com/6jzarmq

Second, there's a cat-fight underway about what health care the National Health Service should provide: <http://tinyurl.com/5vcqns3>  <http://tinyurl.com/6zgb5dr>  <http://tinyurl.com/6evutqo>  <http://tinyurl.com/63r3azt> . Treatment is already rationed, especially if it is costly, there is no clear diagnosis, or it is a new development, but this involves pulling back from long-established standards.

Third, the previous House of Commons Speaker is now being criticised for being out of costume: <http://tinyurl.com/6hexqt4>

Fourth, the Spanish legal system is trying to suppress embarrassing news articles by telling Google not to link to them: <http://tinyurl.com/47gw3ld

Next, a Science article on weather and prosperity: <http://www.sciencemag.org/content/early/2011/01/12/science.1197175

Lastly, a liberal--perhaps even libertarian--commentary on current events in the UK: <http://tinyurl.com/46ymncs>. 

-- Harry Erwin, PhD "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." (Benjamin Franklin, 1755)

=================w

The news this week continues to be interesting.

 It looks like we'll be hit by a surge in inflation here: <http://tinyurl.com/68n4zgl> <http://tinyurl.com/6jol8lt>. In some parts of the economy, it has hit double digits. 

The NHS debate turns nasty: <http://tinyurl.com/5t8hy4w> <http://tinyurl.com/6ak8ue8> <http://tinyurl.com/6849n4a> <http://tinyurl.com/6x3frlo>

 Covert policing to be cleaned up: <http://tinyurl.com/654qwda> Did you know it was being handled in the UK by a private company?

 Use of libel actions to suppress public debate: <http://tinyurl.com/65ltwnc>

 If you want to discourage something--in this case education for the poor after the age of 16--eliminate the subsidy: <http://tinyurl.com/5wba5mb> <http://tinyurl.com/6yztbal>

 Segways are illegal in the UK <http://tinyurl.com/6d22stg>. Powered wheelchairs next?

 --

Harry Erwin, PhD,
Senior Lecturer of Computing, University of Sunderland. Computational neuroethologist:

http://crowan-scat.sunderland.ac.uk/~harryerw/mediawiki/index.php

===========

Judge Impeached for lying to FBI and Senate

Dr. Pournelle,

I thought you would find this interesting.

In a precedent setting impeachment of a United States District Judge, Congress has decided lying to the FBI and Senate justifies removal from office.

It is a first.

The Judge in question was removed for four counts charged by the House. One of the "high crimes and misdemeanors" was his lying to the FBI, and subsequently the US Senate during the pre-confirmation process.

See: http://bit.ly/g78OOV 

I found this in one of my twitter feeds. We've been using twitter while we cruise in our retirement explorations. Twitter has continued to improve and now is like the CNN of the internet for 'heads up' cites to multiple news and info channels, which one is able to subscribe and follow without taking too much time. Sort of like an old newsroom teletype. Feel free to take a look at twitter's newest format at my web site: http://twitter.com/@captedkelly . It's hard to describe its utility. The good info you get in is like 'narrowcasting' when you select what sources to follow. I certainly think it merits a "recommended" on my list of valuable resources, right up there close behind your column and mail.

Have a wonderful day.

Ed Kelly Ed & Sue Kelly on USSV Angel Louise, on hard Ft. Pierce, FL ... crossing Atlantic in May

It is certainly a rare event...

===========

Hi, Jerry. You note: “Rush Limbaugh is an entertainer. He states this himself. He uses the device of the "Limbaugh Institute for Advanced Conservative Studies in describing his show, but I do not think he takes that seriously.”

I’ve been a Limbaugh fan since his first show, when he took over a small, one-hour radio talk show here in Sacramento, CA. He was here in Sacramento on KFBK for three years before he took his show to New York and went national, 23 or so years ago. Back then, Rush used to describe his schtick as “demonstrating absurdity by being absurd”. I haven’t heard him use this phrase in years, but this is still the touchstone of his show; he goes “over the top”, sometimes extravagantly so, in parodying his targets and trying to make them seem ridiculous. In many cases, Limbaugh is able to goad foolish people into becoming, if this is possible, even MORE foolish than they already were.

I will freely grant you that his over-the-top performances are sometimes annoying; even I think so. And sometimes the incessant drumbeat becomes tiresome. But he’s making 20+ million dollars a year, re-made the very CONCEPT of “talk radio”, and has the largest radio audience in history, with the exception of Paul Harvey. A lot of people apparently think he’s saying at least SOME of the right things, most of the time.

---

Ken Mitchell

I think you make my point exactly. Note that I did not say "merely" an entertainer. Of course Rush is a commentator, and he tries to be reasonably accurate in his observations and when he states facts; but he is not lecturing in an institution of higher learning, nor does he claim to be. That was all I meant.

============

Report: Women should be allowed in combat units - USATODAY.com

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/
2011-01-14-women-combat_N.htm?csp=YahooModule_News 

Dear Jerry:

I wrote an Op/Ed for Defense News in 1991 on this issue. In it I pointed out, that in the modern combat environment the difference between "combat' and "combat support" is the word "support". And so it has proved in Iraq and Afghanistan. There women assigned to Civil Affairs units found themselves manning machine guns on convoys, as much at risk as any other soldier. The MPs have had this reality since the Panama Invasion when Capt. Linda Bray led her company in a fire fight with local insurgents. So the reality is that women are already in combat arms units. The neat little clerical evasion here is that they are not "assigned" but "attached". A meaningless distinction. Over the last twenty years that 1991 essay of mine has been quoted and referenced many times in support of changing the rules to reflect the reality.

A lot of the fears expressed by those opposed to this change are simply bad assumptions. Women go through the same Basic Combat Training and are equally capable of handling whatever comes. I recall an episode where a platoon of MPs on convoy duty had an argument at their destination with a local prude who wanted the women to find separate sleeping accommodations. The response, from a Male NCO was " we fight together, we eat together and we lodge together". Everyone was tired and they had another convoy the next morning over the same very dangerous route. So they weren't having any.

My stage play, "Memorial Day" is about a bunch of people in a small town. most of whom have served, often heroically, who have to deal with the death of the home town girl who went to West Point and became a career Army officer; killed by an IED in Iraq leading her battalion of MPs. I hope to get that produced again. It's not a matter of letting girls into the club house because they are already there. It's a matter of acknowledging their presence and getting on with the job.

Sincerely,

Francis Hamit

==========

The Hunt's The Thing

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/
content/article/2011/01/12/AR201101120
4703.html?sid=ST2011011205425 

The Hunting Act <http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2004/37/contents>  , which became the law of this land in 2005 following months of protest and parliamentary debate, made it illegal to use dogs to hunt foxes. It also protects some other mammals, such as hare (but not rabbits), mice (but not rats) and mink (but not men).

Several pink-cheeked and puffing specimens of which are now scrambling through hedgerows of hawthorn and wild rose, plunging into icy irrigation channels and laboring across plowed fields that are sodden with just-thawed snow from Britain's uncharacteristically cold winter.

This is a manhunt.

Let me get this straight; it is STILL the pursuit of the inedible by the unspeakable, right?

Jim w.

==========

Afghanistan

Afghanistan makes nothing we need or ought to want, and the best we can accomplish there is that it not be a haven for launching attacks against the American people and the United States. This has already been accomplished. I see no reason why we cannot declare victory and leave, with some precautions and warnings. As to the Afghan practices with boys, I don't have to have a public opinion.

-----

We have landed on Al-Qaeda <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Qaeda>  hard, but it is not gone, and Bin Loudmouth is still around. Once we leave, he will proclaim victory in that he drove us out. He will then rebuild his organization. He will then start seeking revenge on anyone who co-operated with us. Once those are wiped out he will consolidate his power. Once that is done he will launch another attack, and we will have to come back and do it over.

Brice

Quite possibly. There are costs and benefits to any policy. Fortunately I don't have to decide. I do think we need to keep looking for the objectives, and whether we are getting closer to them or not. The objective, so far as I am concerned, is not to build a liberal democracy in Afghanistan with Kabul's writ running to all the borders; it is to deny our enemies bases in Afghanistan. Do note there is mineral wealth in Afghanistan -- and that China is setting up to exploit it. Perhaps Chinese conquest of Afghanistan will follow. That might be interesting, China advancing into the graveyard of empires.

Perhaps the following is irrelevant, but it does have an effect on the Legions:

Sodomy and Sufism in Afgaynistan http://atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/MA11Df03.html  By Spengler 

Social scientists attached to the Second Marine Battalion in Afghanistan last year circulated a startling report on Pashtun sociology, in the form of a human terrain report on male sexuality among America's Afghan allies. The document, made available by military sources, is not classified, just disturbing. Don't ask, don't tell doesn't begin to qualify the problem. These are things you didn't want to know, and regret having heard. The marines got their money's worth from their Human Terrain adjuncts, but the report might have considered whether male pedophilia in Afghanistan has a religious dimension as well as a cultural one. I will explain why below.

Most Pashtun men, Human Terrain Team AF-6 reports, engage in sex with men--boys--in fact, the vast majority of their sexual contacts are with males. "A culturally-contrived homosexuality [significantly not termed as such by its practitioners] appears to affect a far greater population base then some researchers would argue is attributable to natural inclination. Some of its root causes lie in the severe segregation of women, the prohibitive cost of marriage within Pashtun tribal codes, and the depressed economic situation into which young Pashtun men are placed." The human terrain team responded to scandalous interactions between Pashtun fighters and North Atlantic Treaty Organization troops, some reported with hilarity by the media. An article in the Scotsman of May 24, 2002, reported, for example: "In Bagram, British marines returning from an operation deep in the Afghan mountains spoke last night of an alarming new threat--being propositioned by swarms of gay local farmers. An Arbroath marine, James Fletcher, said: 'They were more terrifying than the al-Qaeda. One bloke who had painted toenails was offering to paint ours. They go about hand in hand, mincing around the village.'

While the marines failed to find any al-Qaeda during the seven-day Operation Condor, they were propositioned by dozens of men in villages the troops were ordered to search." Another interviewee in the article, a marine in his 20s, stated, "It was hell. Every village we went into we got a group of men wearing makeup coming up, stroking our hair and cheeks and making kissing noises."<snip>

 

==========

: Antimatter in thunderstorms

Jerry:

Here's what Anthony Watts has to say about it. <http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/01/10/
thunderstorms-proven-to-create-antimatter/

Apparently, the electric fields in a lightning bolt can speed electrons up to the point where collisions with matter produce gamma rays. Photons are generated when charged particles are accelerated. Photons with at least 1.011 MeV of energy can convert into matter, an electron/positron pair when they pass close enough to an atomic nucleus, a process called "pair production". (The atomic nucleus takes up the momentum carried by the photon, as required by conservation laws.)

...........Karl

==========

Microsoft graphing calculator app now free

http://www.microsoft.com/downloads/en/details.aspx?FamilyID=9caca722-5235-401c-8d3f-9e242b794c3a 

They used to ask $20 for this but it is now a freebie. Pretty much a must for any student carrying around a compatible machine.

Eric Pobirs

===========

The DSM vs the rest of us

Hello Jerry,

Postulating that 'View' today was an unofficial 'election' between you and Don, I got Jerry in a landslide.

Like you (probably even MORE than you), I am very distrustful of the DSM. I have never read it, but when I run across the DSM secondarily it almost always strikes me as more of a political document than a medical document.

One example would be its treatment of homosexuality. When you and I were young, homosexuality was thought to be a mental disorder. The DSM (or its '50's equivalent) thought so too. Now, not only is it not a mental disorder, it is a condition to be celebrated and taught to our elementary children as something laudable. There are others.

I'm with you. I think that government with the power and willingness to lock up people on the premise that they MAY commit a crime is far more dangerous than the random, but rare, nut who gets a gun and proceeds to shoot as many people as possible. Upsetting, of course, but the nut body count pales into insignificance against that of self- declared beneficent governments.

Bob Ludwick

==

Involuntary Commitment 

Don's remarks regarding involuntary commitment:

"If in these cases some 'harmless' people were committed long enough to determine their possible danger we as a society can pay that price."

are well-worded and sound reasonable. However, I am disturbed by the 'society can pay the price' part. 'Society' doesn't pay the price, individuals do. I wonder if Don would be so civic-minded if he were the one locked up.

I know that his position is predicated on the assumption that it will be qualified experts making the decision. I, for one, have little confidence in the experts, at least those with whom I have no personal acquaintance (and even some of those with whom I do). As you have pointed out, many perfectly sane people were committed in the past by someone's 'experts'.

Best regards,

Richard in Austin

-- "One of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors." --Plato

==

Mental Illness

Jerry, Love your site and find your insights very realistic and thought provoking.

Perhaps we should make "mental illness with potential for violence" a crime. Charge a person with this "crime" and allow a jury to decide if the person should be locked up. This would allow the state to present its case as well as for the suspected mentally ill person to defend himself. A jury could/should decide.

This could at least eliminate the concerns about due process and the potential for abuse by some future tyrannical government.

Best, Tom

==========

String Theory,

Jerry

Finally, a 3D movie expose of string theory:

http://xkcd.com/848/ 

Heh.

Ed

===========

"What’s really at root in this case is whether travel is a right that we have under the Constitution - an ability to move about the country without having to show papers - which has been one of the defining characteristics of American freedom."

<http://www.kob.com/article/stories/S1875813.shtml>

- Roland Dobbins

================

Obama and the Zeroth Law

I'm reading Foundation's Fear by Gregory Benford. It mentions the Zeroth Law of robotics, which requires robots to put the good of humanity as a whole above the good of an individual or group. It occurred to me that the Obama administration can be viewed as following this law, putting a utopian vision of humanity as a whole above the immediate good of Americans. Discouraging offshore oil production in the U.S. while subsidizing it in Brazil seems to be consistent with this view.

Bill Dooley

Probably because I was exposed to "With Folded Hands" early in my reading life, I have considerable concern about any directive to "the good of humanity"...

=========

More China comments 

A contributor made comments on China’s increasing foreign aid to areas the west has typically made big commitments in. It is happening, and during my past decade of trips to Africa putting in medical systems I saw a great deal of it. The difference with China is that they rarely do anything like this without some kind of agreement on the side. One place I was in was suffering because China had agreed to upgrade the country’s power generation infrastructure….the side commitment was that they would take over managing it for an agreed period of time. What happened was China started selling the country’s power generation capacity across the border to a country with less capability there, but more money, and the local economy started having lots of brownouts and blackouts. There was a lot of discussion about it, but the agreements were pretty iron clad, and short of nationalization, nothing was going to work.

China doesn’t do things for free, and when you shake their hand on a deal, you’d better be checking your wallet.

Tracy Walters, CISSP

============

Statistical Errors

My father taught political science for nearly 30 years at MacMaster University.

The following book was required reading in all his statistical analysis courses.

http://www.amazon.com/Lies-Damn-Statistics-
Manipulation-Opinion/dp/0440351219 

DM

David March

===========

HOLEY MOLEY!  MS OneNote was just released for the iPhone

Jerry, I just downloaded OneNote from MS for the iPhone from the Apple App Store...its temporarily free!!! They must read your column :-) rh

"If you can't fix it with a hammer, you've got an electrical problem!"

Does it work?

Jerry Pournelle Chaos Manor

It seems to. I had to sign in with my Windows Live ID, then Bob's yer uncle! Its touted as OneNote Mobile Edition.

It opens to the Home Page with the "Recently Viewed", "Unfiled Notes" and "Personal (Web)" generic Tabs. I created a couple of notes, I did a sync and since its linked to the iPhone camera, I took a picture and added notes and sync'd that.

This looks like a win for we inveterate note takers.

Here's hoping they have an iPad edition in test at the App store as we speak, because I think that would be the ultimate tool.

cheers....rh

Richard Hakala

Thanks. I have a note on this from Peter Glaskowsky on this also. This is very good news. One Note and a Tablet PC make up a very powerful research tool.

==

Just what the doctor ordered! :)

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2375932,00.asp

Paul

=====

Just downloaded it on both the iphone and ipad. It is not a native ipad app, but will run "blown up" in 2X mode. Having trouble syncing, probably because I don't have windows live setup right.

= =

onenote on iphone/ipad

You need to sign up at skydrive.live.com first. This will enable a "cloud" place to store your one note files. If you don't the onenote app will never sync and you will not be able to use onenote. Once you do that, one note works!

Phil

If you already have a Windows Live identity this will all be very simple. Microsoft is mostly looking for your agreement to the terms. You get 25 gB of cloud drive, which ought to be enough for most sane users. If you have not signed up with Windows Live, it's not difficult.

=============w

 

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Thursday, January 20, 2011

I was recently reminded of this letter and answer from years ago. Let it serve for today's comments on education reform.

===========

Mental Disorder 

Jerry,

Since I am a practicing counseling psychologist (with children, primarily) I will note that the reason that the DSM is used is that this allows pharmaceutical companies to increase sales. You have a DSM diagnosis? Great, we have a drug for that. As you note, it has little to do with the level of dangerousness. It has to do with profit. Just my opinion. I see many children each week. It's amazing the number that come in with a diagnosis of ADHD. Maybe 10-15% of them actually have the disorder and can benefit from medication (and it's pretty obvious as when a kid actually has the problem, stimulant medication will generally work). The rest are just a pain to their parents or the school. I'm pretty convinced at this point that the schools would put Ritalin in the water fountains if they thought they could. Little boys don't act like little girls, but perhaps we can medicate them into acting that way.

Sheesh!

Randy Powell

==

One other note: recently our state changed the name of it's division that is concerned with mental health. Previously it was called, understandably, Division of Mental Health. It was recently changed to the Division of Behavioral Health.

Now, what's that tell you?

Randy Powell

It tells me more than I wish that it did. The Iron Law is inexorable. Send your kid to public schools and enrich the pharmaceutical industry. Have a nice day.

Now let's talk about getting the mentally ill off the streets.

==

: Hard Cases and Mental Patients

Jerry,

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-
124979/Plans-lock-mental-health-patients.html 

--------

BDAB,
Joshua Jordan,
KSC Percussa Resurgo

===========

A different issue with the Tucson Shooting

Jerry,

The Mental Health debate around the Tucson shooting is important but I think that another important issue has been missed. As far as I know, Jared Lee Loughner has so far only been charged with Federal Crimes. When I was a boy, I was taught that there could be no federal crime against murder as the Constitution limited federal power to commerce between the states. Now is a more serious crime to shoot a federal employee than to shoot a mere subject, err citizen.

Mike Plaster

When John F. Kennedy was shot, it was not a federal crime; it was murder in Texas. We have since made it a crime to lie to a member of the Imperium. Assaulting a Congresscritter is a life sentence offence, in a Federal facility. So far have we come. I would guess that Adams and Washington would have led a rebellion against this usurpation.

===========

Good article on small reactor progress.

http://www.nationalreview.com/
articles/257022/going-nuclear-william-tucker?page=1 

From the article: "Over the past four years, half a dozen new companies, plus a few old-guard stalwarts such as Babcock & Wilcox, General Electric, and Westinghouse, have introduced designs for reactors approximately one-tenth the size of the conventional variety. Instead of being laboriously constructed on-site — a process that takes at least four years — these units can be mass produced in factories and shipped to their destinations via truck or rail, where they can be sited individually or combined like Lego blocks."

"The full-size commercial reactors built by Areva and Westinghouse are 1,500 megawatts — enough to power a city the size of San Francisco. By contrast, Babcock & Wilcox’s 50-year history of building small submarine reactors for the U.S. Navy finally inspired it to introduce the 125-megawatt mPower reactor in 2010. And NuScale Energy of Corvallis, Ore., has developed a 45-megawatt reactor that could fit into a gazebo and power a town of 10,000. “It’s built mostly of off-the-shelf technologies,” says Paul Lorenzini, a nuclear engineer and former utility executive who founded the company in 2007. “You could power a major manufacturing plant with one unit, or combine twelve of them into something the size of a conventional power plant.”

The problem remains the NRC. Iron Law at work.

Herb

We have the technology and we are spending the money on bailouts and clunkers and shovel ready gump. Cheap energy and freedom brings prosperity.

===========

Subject: retirement policy 

 Here's an idea. Our safety net should provide for 10 years of  retirement. Why any more? America is supposed to be a nation of doers  not lotus eaters. It does imply that manual labor is not what one  retires from. Perhaps you use your manual labor time to learn something else for your second career. In any case, why should someone sit on their ass for 25 years after working. I'm assuming a life expectancy of about 90 and the current system assumes you retire at 65. 

 Phil

Simplest thing: raise the retirement age to 70. If you want to retire  earlier, save up for it. It's not a gift from the people.

 Jerry Pournelle
 Chaos Manor

Exactly! My generation could probably have it raised to 80. So we just fixed social security, now what about health care?

Phil

============

Should We Go Back to the Future?

http://www.lewrockwell.com/schmidt/schmidt24.1.html 

"...in 1790, with a population of 3,929,000 <http://www.u-s-history.com/pages/h980.html>  and 105 <http://www.jeffjacoby.com/6057/rx-for-the-house-enlarge-it>  Representatives, the US had representation in Congress at 37,500 people per Representative. Maintaining this ratio today would require 8200 Representatives, a mind-bogglingly large number for any poor lobbyist to even consider buying control of. It would also make it easier for non-Republicrat parties to get a foothold in Congress, where non-major parties have dwindled with declining representativeness. Finally, the spectacle of 8200 self-important people vying with each other for attention would make obvious the ridiculousness of trying to govern a State grown hypertrophic, and lend major support to a collapse back to a more manageable governmental unit <http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig8/schmidt8.html>  ."

Having each Representative "serve" 37,500 citizens would make gerrymandering more challenging as well.

Charles Brumbelow

It might well be worth a try. But each would then insist on a full staff. And Committee Chairmanships would become even more powerful. Perhaps that is as it should be?

===========

NASA rice bowls

Jerry:

Thought you'd get a kick out of this video on the current NASA/Congress idiocy:

http://www.transterrestrial.com/?p=31794 

-- Bruce F. Webster (http://bfwa.com, http://brucefwebster.com)

===========

Getting Chills 

Jerry,

After looking at this chart, I'm severely disturbed. But, I guess now I can stop worrying about whether we will be in a depression. The chart is here:

http://www.shadowstats.com/imgs/sgs-m3.gif?hl=ad&t=1295134987 

Notice the M3 line changes from red to blue in 2006? That is because the M3--the amount of money the Federal Reserve (our privately-owned central bank) prints--is no longer published after 2006. It is also interesting to note that June of 2006 was the 'point of no return' for our economy as former intelligence professional Bob Chapman pointed out when discussing these matters. After that point, it is Bob's opinion, that depression was inevitable.

This chart comes into play because you will note--assuming the SGS calculation of the M3 is correct--a contraction of the money supply. Depressions happen when money stops moving--says George Jackson also a former intelligence professional as well as a friend and mentor of mine. In our economy of 2011 we have severe unemployment. This means people aren't getting enough money, which means they want more of it. Contracting the money supply means there is less of it to get. If there is less money to get, there is more competition over money and more incentive to sit on money as the money supply wanes.

This is the exact same process that you will note with the same inflationary statistics prior to the Great Depression. Basically, Jerry, here is one more indicator that we are in some serious trouble unless someone pulls some rabbits out of some hats.

--------

BDAB,
Joshua Jordan,
KSC Percussa Resurgo

===========

Truly horrible 

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

I'm sorry to have to bother you with this, but I think you'll understand why the story is significant.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/CRIME/01/19/
pennsylvania.abortion.doctor/?hpt=T1 

The smell got so bad even CNN and NYT couldn't ignore it. The doctor in question is charged with 8 murders at his abortion clinic, including 1 adult and 7 children.

The grand jury indictment is here. The most fascinating reading is on page 137:

http://www.phila.gov/districtattorney/
PDFs/GrandJuryWomensMedical.pdf 

 

"We discovered that Pennsylvania’s Department of Health has deliberately chosen

not to enforce laws that should afford patients at abortion clinics the same safeguards and

assurances of quality health care as patients of other medical service providers. Even nail

salons in Pennsylvania are monitored more closely for client safety."

It goes on for many, MANY paragraphs in the same vein. Pity it'll probably all disappear in a week, but it's the sort of scandal Pulitzer-prize winning journalists used to care about.

Respectfully,

Brian P.

=============

Sodomy and Sufism in Afgaynistan

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

I remember a decade or so ago, Dr. C. Christine Fair, a specialist on the South Asian subcontinent then at RAND ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C._Christine_Fair ), told me that the Taliban originally built political capital by rescuing children abducted by warlords for use as catamites, and returning them to their families. The goodwill collected that way helped them catapult into power. Of course, many of the said warlords are now our putative allies.

This law and order approach is not an isolated strategy - Hizbullah, Hamas and the UIC in Somalia did much the same. At some point, when a society becomes corrupt and dysfunctional enough, any kind of order is welcomed with relief by the people, even a draconian and puritanical one.

Yours,

-- Fazal Majid

But Draconian is precisely what our Legions cannot be.

Tyranny is almost always bred from anarchy and rebellion. The Thermidor reaction brought Napoleon. Disorder invites the strong man who will impose order. We used to learn this in seventh grade.

=======================w

 

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Friday,  January 21, 2011

Eminent Indian space physicist says human activity less important in global heat retention, cosmic rays more responsible

A proponent of the Svensmark hypothesis, which holds that clouds formed by cosmic rays significantly contribute to global warming, has research which suggests that climate change proponents overstate the effect of human activity, and that cosmic rays are more of an influence than heretofore thought.

Von Karman award winner Dr. Udipi Ramachandra Rao <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Udipi_Ramachandra_Rao>  declared that the forcing from charged particles is higher than previously thought, at 1.1Wm-2, and human-forcing lower than the IPCC "consensus" of 1.6Wm-2. See <http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/01/21/rao_cosmic_ray_climate_forcing/>  for an announcement with links to details.

--

John Bartley

...the ClimateGate scandal broke into the news, and the machinations of the principal alarmists were revealed to the world. It was a fraud on a scale I have never seen, and I lack the words to describe its enormity. This is not science; other forces are at work." <http://goo.gl/KbWq>  - UC Physics Prof. Emeritus Harold Lewis

I include the aphorism at the end for a reason. In general, in every human activity, particularly in academia, "other forces are at work" in every department including the real sciences, not just the voodoo sciences. Real science looks at data, makes falsifiable predictions, and attempts to falsify or confirm those predictions. The rest is "other forces" at work.

==

Surface temperature uncertainty, quantified

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/01/20/s
urface-temperature-uncertainty-quantified/ 

A recently published paper studies and quantifies the error in surface temperature measurements:

UNCERTAINTY IN THE GLOBAL AVERAGE SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE INDEX: A REPRESENTATIVE LOWER LIMIT

Patrick Frank, Palo Alto, CA 94301-2436, USA, Energy and Environment, Volume 21, Number 8 / December 2010 <http://multi-science.metapress.com/content/
q557742n3221/?p=e174cd02151f44d7bd601ebb287be383&pi=0>  DOI: 10.1260/0958-305X.21.8.969

Abstract

Sensor measurement uncertainty has never been fully considered in prior appraisals of global average surface air temperature. The estimated average ±0.2 C station error has been incorrectly assessed as random, and the systematic error from uncontrolled variables has been invariably neglected. The systematic errors in measurements from three ideally sited and maintained temperature sensors are calculated herein. Combined with the ±0.2 C average station error, a representative lower-limit uncertainty of ±0.46 C was found for any global annual surface air temperature anomaly. This ±0.46 C reveals that the global surface air temperature anomaly trend from 1880 through 2000 is statistically indistinguishable from 0 C, and represents a lower limit of calibration uncertainty for climate models and for any prospective physically justifiable proxy reconstruction of paleo-temperature. The rate and magnitude of 20th century warming are thus unknowable, and suggestions of an unprecedented trend in 20th century global air temperature are unsustainable.

Paul

[Emphasis added]

I have not seen this before, but it does show that my inquiries into the accuracies of the measures was not entirely absurd. I still do not know how to get the annual average temperature to a tenth of a degree for Studio City, much less for California, the Northern Hemisphere, of the Earth. I can imagine ways to get a figure to that accuracy, but I am not at all certain that extraneous factors won't affect that from year to year.

So far, the experts who have tried to convince me of the 0.1 degree accuracy of the annual Earth temperature measure have used the technique of proof by repeated assertion: I have yet to see any explication of the reasonableness of the inputs chosen (mostly it seems to be because it's what we have) or a defense of the weights given to the various measures including the interpolations used to cover areas like Siberia and the interior of Africa where we have few and often no primary measures. I am told that such explanations exist somewhere, but no one seems to be able to find them. One would suppose that Scientific American or some such publication would commission a good article on the subject; or perhaps a good documentary at the level of "Inconvenient Truth" might be generated, but staying a bit closer to reality.

I do not expect that to happen soon. I do expect to see many more wails from AGW advocates and attacks on those who want to abolish science.

And see below regarding arctic temperatures.

=============

' Two Suns in Earth's Sky

'Yes, any day now we see a second sun light up the sky, if only for a matter of weeks.'

<http://www.news.com.au/technology/sci-tech/tatooines-twin-suns-coming-to-a-planet-near-you-just-as-soon-as-betelgeuse-explodes/story-fn5fsgyc-1225991009247>

-- Roland Dobbins

Now that would be something to see. Think what it will do for Global Warming.

And of course such events are possible, although there is little we can do about them I suppose. What would we do?

===========

Regarding today's Delta IV Heavy launch at Vandenburg...

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1437/1 

I have no idea if there's any basis in reality for this piece, but it's sure a good story. :-)

. png

At one time if you called the Pentagon extension for the Keyhole team, they answered "Weather Observation"

==========

retirement policy - and the social cost of dead wood retired in place inevitable with a seniority ratchet effect?

I'm not going to Google it for exactness but I remember a memoir by IIRC a Big Steel CEO who was a Secy of Commerce for Eisenhower - the man said he personally respected the company requirement to retire at 65 because he had seen the company (might have been United States Steel) benefit more from losing dead wood than the company suffered from losing good people.

I know - but don't quote me by name or drop the company name - that Boeing was greatly concerned about the graying of the company as successive boom and bust cycles left only the older employees in many business units - and so some support and R&D functions might as well shut down in August as everybody had 4 weeks vacation but the internal customers didn't. This matters for such things as the current requirement for a new tanker - there is current expertise only for aluminum tankers as the 767 based proposal - given the issues with the 787 imagine trying to modify a Dreamliner for tanker or AWACS or any other major derivative. What provision for young blood goes with raising retirement age?

Better the aging and out of touch teachers retire than retire in place, not so?

Notice that for baby boomers born from 1943 to 1954 full retirement age for social security is age 66 rising in monthly increments to age 67 for those born in 1960 and later.

And of course with the exception of public employees with defined benefits pensions the market will keep the elderly doing their best to continue to work in a down job market anyway.

CEM

There is a difference between the time served to vest a pension, and the age at which the pension shall be paid. If one wants to retire at 50, save up for it. Most will work until 65.

Early retirement for incompetence is probably not the best method to improve output.

===========

Ice fields

Jerry,

The current PR about melting ice fields being a positive feedback loop that amplifies global warming focuses on increasing reflectivity while ignoring IR emissivity. You are correct that the amount of solar radiation incident at high latitudes is very low. Any net decrease in solar isolation resulting from the increased reflectivity is easily counterbalanced by a decrease in effective emissivity. While snow and ice are highly emissive in the IR range (a fact that shocked me when I looked it up) the same is true of sea water and most land surfaces. However; snow and ice are also effective thermal insulators. Ice pack in the Arctic effectively prevents heat in the Arctic ocean from being radiated into space. While there is some heat absorbed from the atmosphere and radiated into space, the low heat capacity and thermal conductivity minimizes this effect. The net result is that snow and ice at high latitudes actually increase planetary temperatures.

Jim Crawford.

PS. You can quote me as a ten thumbs up on your daughter's book.

That was why I propose that we should take some direct measurements with both air and globe temperature instruments in a number of places in the polar regions. Let's find out just what the presence and absence of the ice will do in a given latitude and under similar cloud conditions. It would not cost much to get real data.

 

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Saturday, January 22, 2011

national online id 

Jerry,

http://www.washingtontimes.com/
news/2011/jan/13/obamas-internet-passport/ 

Federalized security screening at airports has been such a success that President Obama <http://www.washingtontimes.com/topics/barack-obama/>  wants to apply the same government "expertise" to the realm of online commerce and commentary. The White House <http://www.washingtontimes.com/topics/white-house/>  cybersecurity adviser joined Commerce Secretary Gary Locke <http://www.washingtontimes.com/topics/gary-locke/>  on Jan. 7 to announce what amounts to a national ID card for the Internet.

Their plan is straightforward. Instead of logging onto Facebook <http://www.washingtontimes.com/topics/facebook/>  or one's bank using separate passwords established with each individual company or website, the White House <http://www.washingtontimes.com/topics/white-house/>  will take the lead in developing what it calls an "identity ecosystem" that will centralize personal information and credentials. This government-approved system would issue a smart card or similar device that would confirm an individual's identity when making online credit-card purchases, accessing electronic health care records, posting "anonymous" blog entries or even logging onto one's own home computer, according to administration documents.

<snip>

This sounds like another solution to a problem that is grossly overblown, which benefits nobody except the government. Hence, it's a colossally, massively, bad idea.

=====================w

 Jerry,

You asked "The egregious Frum continues to get major space from the mainstream media. Why?".

Because Frum is following the McCain (John OR Meghan) road to media praise as a "conservative" who spends most of his time criticizing other conservatives.

Sincerely,

Calvin Dodge

I suppose so. I suspect that many neocons have such proclivities.

=====================w

 

 

 

 

 

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The current page will always have the name currentmail.html and may be bookmarked. For previous weeks, go to the MAIL HOME PAGE.

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