| Wednesday,
December 1, 2010 TSA X-ray Machines versus
Terrorists
Dear Dr Pournelle:
I work in a hospital Quality Department and one of the
courses I took toward my Masters was dealt with risk management, abatement,
and ethics. Injuries caused by medical equipment radiation accidents were
one of the topics covered. The point that stuck out to me was that injuries
and deaths caused by malfunctioning or improperly operated imaging or
therapeutic radiation emitters was far greater than the number of people
killed or injured each year by terrorists (attacks on or with transportation
hubs and vehicles).
Now medical radiation equipment is supposed to be
operated by highly trained and certified technicians. Maintenance intervals
are short, calibrations frequent, maintenance only by highly trained repair
people (usually by the manufacturer), and lockout-tagout always used at the
slightest discrepancy. Such quality controls are unlikely in the use of
airport X-ray scanners. Which makes the chance for a malfunction or improper
operation of an airport x-ray scanner much more likely to occur than in a
medical setting.
Medical x-ray machines do a high volume to pay for
themselves. But the number of people who are, and will be, scanned at
airports (and like other transportation hubs and government facilities) are
an entire magnitude greater. Which means any malfunction of an airport
machine will likely effect a magnitude greater number of people than a
medical machine.
Terrorists will get past the screeners no matter what,
and they will continue to cause problems, injuries, deaths, and horrific
damage. But the number of people who will eventually be injured or killed by
malfunctioning or misused airport x-ray scanners will likely dwarf any
terror problems we ever encounter.
The cons outweight the pros, the risks are far greater
than the benefits. The only reasons why they are being used is for "security
theater", the psychological "rush" that TSA gets from forcing people to use
it or endure groping, and the great wealth being gobbled down by the
machine's company's stockholders.
Michael Houst Exeter, NH
==
Comparison of Back scatter X-rays to radiation dose
of flight
A PhD candidate in molecular biology offers this
discussion of the backscatter X-ray machines.
http://myhelicaltryst.blogspot.com/2010/11/
tsa-x-ray-backscatter-body-scanner.html
He suggests that the comparison to radiation received
from chest X-rays as well as radiation received during the flight may not be
an apples to apples comparison because the lower energies of the TSA
machines result in a much higher radiation density in the affected tissue
near the surface, and that the way the beam is rastered could result in
longer dwell times at certain spots. He also asks if a software fault could
cause the beam to stop rastering at a specific point, creating a much higher
dose in a small area.
Mike Johns
==================
170mm artillery
Re "Resident in Korea's" letter on Monday, North Korea
has a locally produced 170mm SP gun, the Koksan. There is very little about
it in open sources, but some info is in the following Wikipedia article.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Koksan
Regards,
-- Bryan "Very sad life. Probably have very sad death.
But at least there is symmetry" - Zathrus
==
Korean artillery duel details
Jerry,
You ask why the South Koreans didn't do better at
counterbattery fire against the North the other day. If Strategypage is to
be believed, the NK's fired a barrage of 122mm artillery rockets off several
multiple launchers, then scooted from the firing site before the SK's could
get (mandatory) permission from higher up to return fire.
http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htlead/articles/20101129.aspx. (A
South Korean paper has some confirmation, with photos of spent 122mm rocket
casings, at
http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/
2010/11/29/2010112901132.html. ) Not something that would work so well
for the NK's regular artillery, no, nor for that matter for even their
highly mobile artillery rocket launchers, in the event of real hostilities
with no calls to southern HQ required before responding. But in the event,
the NK's once again got away with one.
I understand the naval exercises are being held a ways
south from the border, in the waters off somewhere well down South Korea's
west coast. We have four Aegis AA missile ships in the carrier escort
instead of the usual one or two, and I'd expect the ASW capability around
the carrier to also be out of the ordinary. We don't seem to be taking
foolish chances with the carrier, fwiw.
I can see the temptation to kick back, hard, but I
think the actual restraint being shown is probably wise. The NK's are living
in a house of cards and know it and play lunatic brinksmanship games
despite; anything that might initiate an uncontrolled collapse could be a
really bad idea. I'd say we need a deal in place with the Chinese and the
South on who picks up which pieces, plus a real good line on where the
North's nukes are and a good plan to get them, before we do much more than
we already are doing.
Henry
============
NK shells SK
Dr Pournelle
Finally found a report that looks like it has the
details right --
http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htlead/20101129.aspx
Says the report:
The NoKos have 130mm artillery in place at that point,
but the 130s have a slow rate of fire. So they brought in a battery of 122mm
rocket launchers and barraged Yeongpyeong-do with 170 missiles in a matter
of minutes.
The SoKos had a battery of 155mm SPAs in place with
standing orders to return fire on the NoKo 130s. The missile barrage was
outside their standing orders, so the SoKo commander on scene -- who did not
want to be the guy who turned a cold war hot -- call up the chain of command
for orders. He got them and, according to the report, returned fire 13
minutes later. (SoKo news reported they returned fire 30 minutes later; it
is easy to confuse the sound of thirteen with thirty in English; not so much
in Korean.)
Assuming this is factual (that is, objectively and
verifiably true), Kim Jong-il and son planned this for some time. The rocket
battery did not just conveniently happen to move there.
SoKo President Yee Myeong-bak made statements that
cause me to believe that the standing orders to units along the DMZ have
been changed.
As for the vulnerability of the US carrier in the
Yellow (West) Sea, I do not believe the NoKos will try anything against any
American combat ship. They are crazy, not stupid.
Resident in Korea
=============
Subject: Senator Says Senate is Rigged
Jerry,
An interesting clip:
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2010/11/
hot-mic-catches-senator-bennets-frustration-senate-is-rigged/
The Federal Reserve Act passed in a climate like this.
In fact, most draconian legislation seems to pass in this fashion.
--------
BDAB, Joshua Jordan, KSC Percussa Resurgo
I'm shocked, shocked...
============
Inferno
At risk of consignment to its Sixth Circle, a good
artist and some work on the caption could transform this bad cartoon into a
great illustration
http://scienceblogs.com/pharyngula/2010/11/the_wages_of_scientific_sin.php
-- Russell Seitz Fellow of the Department of Physics
Harvard University
The year that Inferno came out, Russell brought a
case of an Italian red wine named "Inferno" to the World SF Convention. It
was -- I guess "interesting" is a good word for it... (and
see bekow)
=============
The Day the Dollar Died - Sensationalized potential
Overly sensationalized, but an interesting description
of potential events.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2N8g
JSMoOJc&feature=player_embedded
Erik
============
How it All Began
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014
24052748704104104575622591025130892
.html?mod=djemEditorialPage_h
"In "Once Before Time" he [Martin Bojowald] charts the
development of loop quantum gravity, one potential mechanism for a bridge to
unite physics. Opposed by a more popular contender in string theory, and
with alternative formulations arising all the time, loop quantum gravity
faces an uphill struggle if it is to become the dominant theory."
Charles Brumbelow
=============
Re: Rock throwing numbers wrong -
Dear Dr. Pournelle,
Upon inspection, it looks like Paul Hayward is right,
and my data point for the mass of Ayers rock is way off. I got my 4 million
tonnes number from the following website;
http://www.trivia-library.com/b/world-tourist-sights-ayers-rock-australia.htm
I didn't go through the effort to sanity-check the
number. It is easy to forget that there's no guarantee that information
found on the internet is actually *correct*...
I was about to start doing my own calculation of the
weight of the thing by looking up its approximate volume and composition of
the rock, but then who says any of those numbers are right, either? Ahh,
well. I'll classify this as a useful reminder to *actually go to the
library* when looking for data while doing something important (which
fortunately this wasn't), and leave it at that.
Regards,
Mike Smith
============
Bombshell Data Dump
Jerry,
I've said it before, the government -- meaning the
less than a thousand elected personnel who are supposed to serve our society
-- will become quite disturbed when this wikileaks information gets
released. Well, the information came out. Here is what we have -- I will use
> for quoted material as typing "snip" is too time consuming:
>WASHINGTON — A cache of a quarter-million
confidential American diplomatic cables, most of them from the past three
years, provides an unprecedented >look at backroom bargaining by embassies
around the world, brutally candid views of foreign leaders and frank
assessments of nuclear and terrorist threats.
>The 251,287 cables, first acquired by WikiLeaks, were
provided to The Times by an intermediary on the condition of anonymity. Many
are unclassified, and >none are marked “top secret,” the government’s most
secure communications status. But some 11,000 are classified “secret,” 9,000
are labeled “noforn,” >shorthand for material considered too delicate to be
shared with any foreign government, and 4,000 are designated both secret and
noforn.
>The Times has withheld from articles and removed from
documents it is posting online the names of some people who spoke privately
to diplomats and >might be at risk if they were publicly identified. The
Times is also withholding some passages or entire cables whose disclosure
could compromise American >intelligence efforts.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/29/world/29cables.html?_r=1
The entire New York Times article is worth reading. I
will not repost it here, but I strenuously suggest people read it. The
matters raised in the article are most interesting. Of great interest should
be the Chinese admission of hacking Western systems and google -- which the
Chinese admit doing. Also of interest should be the "let's make a deal"
concerning Getmo terrorists. It also looks like Italy is changing sides
again, but what should we expect of a nation that changed sides during two
world wars?
Saudi Arabia seems to want the United States to strike
Iran. I guess the would prefer the status of regional hegemon?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/
us_wikileaks_usa;_ylt=ApEWgSH5vYtU
9XhCTokSfiOs0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTJoc
WNsMDl0BGFzc2V0A25tLzIwMTAxMT
I4L3VzX3dpa2lsZWFrc191c2EEY3
BvcwMyBHBvcwM4BHNlYwN5bl9
0b3Bfc3RvcnkEc2xrA3dpa2lsZWFrc
2RvYw- -
Hillary Clinton ordered diplomats to spy on allies.
Well, this insight has been known for a long time to certain people.
However, there has been evidence recently that U.S. Embassies exist -- for
the most part -- to undertake spying. Anyone who has lived overseas recently
know that embassies do not do what they allegedly used to. Everyone I know
who lived overseas in the 60's and 70's seems to think there are hospitals,
shops, and activity centers for Americans. I never saw any of this. I knew
some people who worked in some of the embassies, so I got invited to certain
functions and had access to a shopette, but this was not available to any
American who came in off the street. So, what is the embassy doing? Well,
apparently, they are doing a lot of spying. It's too bad that had to become
public information, this will make intelligence collection efforts much more
problematic.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/nov/28/us-embassy-cable-leak-diplomacy-crisis
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,731587,00.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/11/04/us-embassy-spying-in-norw_n_778978.html
The PR people are at work:
>“By its very nature, field reporting to Washington is
candid and often incomplete information,” wrote Gibbs. “It is not an
expression of policy, nor does it always shape final policy >decisions.
Nevertheless, these cables could compromise private discussions with foreign
governments and opposition leaders, and when the substance of private
conversations is >printed on the front pages of newspapers across the world,
it can deeply impact not only U.S. foreign policy interests but those of our
allies and friends around the world.”
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1110/45644.html#ixzz16cAMUpR2
Apparently, this all goes back to PFC Datadump. I
guess, maybe, information sharing was not such a good idea? I wonder what
will happen to the Wikileaks boss and to PFC Datadump -- I am not talking
about judicial action.
--------
BDAB,
Joshua Jordan, KSC Percussa Resurgo
Perhaps bombshell is an overly strong word.
Little I have seen so far is news, although making it public is
embarrassing. What will change now is the distribution list for that fire
hose of data.
As to what will happen with Pfc Datadump, I would
suppose he is about to enter an exciting new career doing log drill at
Fort Leavenworth. Regarding the Wikileak boss, do you believe one man can
rape two young women simultaneously? Perhaps it is already happening.
===================
TOP
CURRENT
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