| Friday,
October 15, 2010 CO2
A few comments about the Mauna Loa measurements and
CO2 sources
ML has been gathering data only since 1959. The data
that it gathers is very arbitrary. Because of wide swings from many causes
(including out gassing from the volcano, wind direction, etc) a significant
portion of the data must be discarded. Basically it is like getting your
daily average temperature at random times during the day and on random dates
in the year and then publishing a very smooth graph of what you want to
believe actually happened. (In a way it is like the warmists computing sea
temperatures from ships logs. When we were at sea the measurements were
taken every 15 minutes {except when the watchstander was sleeping on duty
and just gundecked the reading} This was done by observing a thermometer
accurate to 2 degrees from a distance of 20 feet and then recording the
temperature to 1 degree accuracy. -- Junk data pure and simple)
If not from man where is the CO2 coming from. The sea!
Cold water holds more CO2 than warm water. During the Little Ice Age the
temperatures in Arctic waters were colder than today. Higher CO2 content in
the surface waters that dropped to the deep abysmal depths. Today, several
hundred years later the waters are surfacing in equatorial areas and out
gassing. But the amount liberated is more than the amount being pulled in
the down welling arctic replenishment so there is a net CO2 release. Now the
time for a full arctic to equator and back to the arctic movement of water
varies considerably. A few hundred years on some currents to close to 2000
years on others. So there is no simple age for the water we are now seeing.
Some might have gone deep during the Little Ice Age, Some during Medieval
Warming , some in Dark Ages and some even during Roman Warming. But the one
thing we are missing is accurate data as to the original conditions and CO2
content. The sea may be uniformly COLD below 400 feet (an understatement if
ever there was one) but dissolved gas content is all over the place. We
simply do not have the data to say what is happening over 70% of the Earth's
surface.
Our problem is that we have scientists who take
extremely noisy data and then smooth it into simple graphs that tell the
politicians paying their salary that they have to take absolute control over
everything before the END OF THE WORLD. And of course the problem that we
like sheep let them take control.
Earl
Of course you're right. I guess I had swallowed
the notion of that the Mauna Loa data was highly accurate, but immediately
I see that it is subject to random variations. Indeed, a warming of the
ocean surface will produce more CO2 which might actually make for a higher
local concentration at Mauna Loa! And I do recall they had to adjust the
figures for Pinatoa.
I have not read up on this: surely there are
checksums? Other observations? Multiple CO2 measuring place? We are
talking about parts per million excursions from 300 ppm, which requires
considerable accuracy. Now I begin to wonder even about the CO2 measures.
That does not mean we can ignore them. We are a ways from runaway CO2
levels, and the Arrhenius estimates of what would happen if we double CO2
are likely in the right order of magnitude.
Is there any way actually to know the CO2 levels
during the Viking/Medieval warm period? I wonder how those are estimated?
I would have thought ice cores, but on reflection that seems unreliable to
any ppm accuracy. What was the CO2 level during the 12th Century?
==
Temp in late 18th century
On the average temperature in the late 18th century
you said that "it was colder in 1776 than it is now".
was that an unusually cold winter, or was 1787 an unseasonably warm summer,
or both?
also, Philadelphia in January 1790, "The average or
medium temperature of this month was 44 degrees. This is the mildest month
of January on record. Fogs prevailed very much in the morning, but a hot sun
soon dispersed them, and the mercury often ran up to 70 in the shade, at
mid-day. Boys were often seen swimming in the Delaware and Schuylkill
rivers."
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/02/03/in-1790-philly-had-a-fever-today-not-so-much/
Clearly there's a lot of variability in the climate if
the Potomac is freezing one year, and 14 years later people are swimming.
--Dora Goon
The Hudson continued to freeze over solidly
enough that markets were held on the ice, and wagons driven across it,
until well into the 1800's. There are many other accounts of the cold, not
just in unusually cold years like 18 hundred and froze to death or the
Year Without A Summer and such; and of course in Europe we had the
freezing over of the brackish Netherland canals that gave rise to the
stories of Hans Brinker and the Silver Skates, and the skaters who brough
provisions to besieged cities in Holland during the Spanish Lowlands
Campaign. Every season has its unusually warm weather once in a while.
It's easy to show it was colder -- shorter
growing seasons, as shown in almanacs, earlier freezing over of ponds and
streams as recorded in diaries, and the like. It isn't really possible to
establish how much colder to any accuracy.
===========
: DHS uses Social Networking Sites to Spy on
Americans
Jerry,
Yeah, I guess most of us saw this coming. But here it
is, sitting on our knee, sharpening it's teeth:
http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/
9191058/DHS_scoured_social_media_sites_
during_Obama_inauguration_for_items_of_interest_
Wouldn't they be remiss if they did not?
==============
Rescuing miners
Dear Dr. Pournelle,
Taking a break from doom and gloom, I thought you'd
appreciate this report on some new technical innovations which helped save
the Chilean miners.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/galleries/2211/1/
Front row center is the Center Rock drill bit,
produced in Pennsylvania by a company with 74 employees. There are some VERY
cool Americans out there.
Respectfully,
Brian P.
Triumphant. Thanks.
==
Subject: The rescue in Chile
You wrote today that in other times there would be a
Te Deum. I certainly hope that that fine old hymn is sung in as many
churches in Chile as possible in celebration of the rescue. Personally,
however, I said a Shehechiyanu (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shehechiyanu)
to thank The Lord for allowing me to see such a marvelous thing. Let us all
give praise, in whatever way we find appropriate, that the miners were able
to survive their ordeal and be returned to their wives and their sons and
their daughters
Joe
============
Massive solar flares
Dear Dr. Pournelle:
You posted some time back (sorry but I can't remember
exactly when) that some scientists expect a massive solar flare sometime
around 2012 that is expected to have an effect similar to a massive EMP. You
(or someone) speculated that this would reduce us to a pre-transistor
culture. Do you know if anyone is making preparations for such an event? If
so, who? If not, how might a regular person try to get ready? It would be
nice if someone with enormous financial resources would set up something
similar to the Museums of Mote Prime but I suppose that would be too much to
ask.
For example, on the pulse effect -- if someone had
access to an abandoned mine, let's say, how deep would it have to be to
shield a stash of computers? I won't even get into the whole "should we save
Macs or PCs" thing but might there be a way to save some devices, or at
least components for devices, from such a pulse? I'd suggest putting a Radio
Shack down inside The Hole at Cheyenne Mountain but that probably wouldn't
work.
Given such an Act of God disaster, how long do you
think it would take for the US and/or the world to recover? Anyone who has
seen a disaster movie or read LUCIFER'S HAMMER can fill in the nasty
societal details for themselves, but how long do you think it would take for
a planet reduced to early 20th Century technology to return to current
levels?
Best regards, Tim Scott
Some people take this threat seriously and I
would presume the military is preparing for the possibility of a nuclear
induced EMP as the opening move of a new war. I would expect that if China
decided to invade Taiwan it would open with an Argos type nuclear event
over Lop Nor.
==========
Cool Space News
Jerry,
This is cool and different:
The Hubble Space Telescope <http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hubble/main/index.html>
has captured the aftermath of just what happens when two asteroids collide
at 11,000 mph (17,702 km/h), prompting an explosion "as powerful as the
detonation of a small atomic bomb".
The result is a "peculiar" object - dubbed P/2010 A2 -
which boasts a comet-like debris trail behind a mysterious X-shaped
formation.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/10/14/asteroid_collision/
--------
BDAB, Joshua Jordan, KSC Percussa Resurgo
=============
Hi jerry
You might want to follow up on the article ayaan hirsi
ali wrote in the wallstreet journal about the trial of geert wilders in the
Netherlands. The facts used by her in this article were not correct. The
article 137 were she is refering to has not been changed since 2005. There
were political debats about changing this law but that didn't happen. So the
article Hirsiwrote is based on nothing then a bunch of lies.
Kind regards Christa
I asked for an explication and received:
Goodmorning jerry,
I could give it a try, first of all you can read this link
http://www.rnw.nl/english/bulletin/
dutch-law-was-not-changed-enable-wilders-trial and that will make
more clear where hirsi went wrong in her article. The freedom of speach in
the Netherlands is different from the united states. After world war two the
gouverment wanted to make sure that inciting hatred to a group of people was
no longer possible and could be stopped by law if necesary, it find its base
in the human rights that everybody is equal. The 137 law where hirsi is
refering to may sound as interfering with the freedom of speach and that
will the tricky part in the geert wilders trail. In reality it's hard to get
convicted in a trail based on this law because of that "trickyness". It has
been tried and failed in the past. So you have the freedom of speach but you
are not allowed to put this in words that might harm a another group of
people. Wilders handed out panflets with the sentence "stop the tumor which
is called islam" and i believe six other things in the same line. The list
made by an islamic group in the netherlands was a lot longer, it counted up
to 90. You have to look at this case knowing that in the eyes of the dutch
gouverment the killing of jews which happened in the second world war should
never be repeated again.
Be carefull when it comes to Ayaan Hirsi Ali, she showed in the past that
she does not take the truth serious. I used to be impressed by her, but
after a few scandels in the Netherlands it showed in my eyes that she is a
very inteligent charletan using people and the truth for her own well being.
For example her entering the Netherlands is based on lies. No i'm not anti
hirsi, it's more that i will always do some " homework" after reading one of
her articles to make sure for myself that the facts she is using are true.
Even when what she is saying was true, if the dutch gouverment did change
the law so they could go after geert wilders, it would not be possible to
convict geert wilders on something that happened before the law was
changed... That's impossible...
Kind regards Christa
Thank you. This was debated in the Convention of
1787, and of course again in the Free Speech trials during the Red Scare,
and later in the McCarthy era. Just what speech is a clear a present
danger? And I would myself think that the Dutch courts and Parliament has
gone far into dangerous ground here. But as you say, we do not have
unimpeachable sources. It is worth following the story.
I do know that in Germany and Austria the
anti-Nazi "hate speech" laws are so stringent that statements made in an
American web site have been used to jail their author upon his arrival in
Europe. He questioned portions of the Holocaust Story. I would myself
think that any story that can't be questioned is immediately subject to
suspicion, but I take the rather extreme view intended by the Framers, as
tested by the Alien and Sedition Laws in the early days of the Republic.
Congress shall make now law seems a fairly strong statement.
Thank you.
[I note that Wilders has been acquitted on all
counts. I also note that he was put on trial, which is no small punishment
in itself.]
==========
Hardheaded
While my mother and wife routinely remind me of how
hardheaded and inflexible I am... The Air Force really defines the term.
http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htlead/articles/20101015.aspx
David Couvillon
Colonel, U.S. Marine Corps Reserve, Retired.; Former Governor of Wasit
Province, Iraq; Righter of Wrongs; Wrong most of the time; Distinguished
Expert, TV remote control; Chef de Hot Dog Excellance; Collector of Hot
Sauce; Avoider of Yard Work
Extremely interesting. Who shall have the power
of life and death?
==========
The Ground Game has Begun
Jerry,
You mentioned the ground game, and -- as if you are
some kind of prophet -- here it is.
http://www.argusleader.com/article/20101014/NEWS/10140308 The Dems
are providing food -- in addition to a ride to the polls.
Didn't Mister Tweed -- of Tammany Hall -- have men at
the pier giving bread and soup to Irish immigrants when they arrived in New
York? It seems to me this is an old trick of the Democratic Party. I wonder
if the GOP could offer purified water, coffee, tea, doughnuts, and healthy
snacks and convince other demographics to take a ride the polls?
This trick of the Dems has worked time and time again.
Of course, it is based on the idea of graft -- we'll give you something for
nothing if you just give us more power. The Dems may be paying for a cheap
breakfast and some gas now, but they promise welfare payments etc if they
are in power. Of course, there is no such thing as a free lunch -- those of
us who produce pay for that parasitic lunch, ultimately.
The point has been made, time and time again, that
there comes a point where producers stop producing when taxes reach a
certain point. Now I have close friends who disagree. They will mention the
90% tax rate that existed on the richest people in the United States at one
point in time. What they can't get around, however, is the fact that when
JFK lowered taxes the revenue increased! This is because, at some point, the
producers decide to stop producing because the taxes are too taxing -- in my
opinion.
I hear so many "talking heads" braying about how
nobody will leave if taxes get too high. Nobody decides to make a business
or not make a business based on taxes. I call BS on all that. I've avoided
investing in FOREX because of my fear that Bush II's tax cuts will expire.
Why bother paying capital gains and income tax when I am the one taking the
risk? I've looked at other small businesses, but I need employees to make it
run. That opens me up to the Obamacare tax. Not only that, income taxes will
increase, the marriage penalty increases, dependent benefits go down, etc.
It is not a good climate to start a business in the United States. I am
looking into opportunities overseas -- which are tax free to a certain
amount.
Sorry, talking heads, but I consider government
policies when I make my business decisions. So there is one less than
everybody. The government does little more than manage public life, and so
anytime I take a public position -- which includes business -- you can be
sure I am familiarizing myself with current policy, potential policy, and
trend lines. I would be an ignoramus to do otherwise. But, maybe the talking
heads think the American people just aren't very bright? I think these
talking heads and politicians are about to get a shock.
--------
BDAB,
Joshua Jordan, KSC Percussa Resurgo
Not a prophet just an old political pro. And the
history of Tammany is worth knowing.
=========
And THIS has to be seen to be believed!
http://www.drudgereport.com/flash2.htm
Yes, from Drudge. Michelle Obama was campaigning for
her husband.
INSIDE a polling place.
And the Board of Elections is going to give her a free
pass on it...
Even Hillary was not that brazen.
John
My wife noted that on the morning news. But since
they didn't prosecute the Black Panther for threatening voters on election
day, I doubt this amounts to much. It's routine for the ruling class.
Someone will apologize which is the remedy for everything now.
===========
A Bit of Good News
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101015/
ap_on_bi_ge/us_health_overhaul_lawsuit
Headline: "Judge: Suit over health overhaul can go to
trial".
Lead sentence: "PENSACOLA, Fla. - Crucial pieces of a
lawsuit challenging the Obama administration's health care overhaul can go
to trial, with a judge ruling Thursday he wants to hear more arguments over
whether it's constitutional to force citizens to buy health insurance."
This is good news. The article mentions that a judge
in Michigan threw out a similar suit, and opines that the matter will
probably go to the Supreme Court.
--John R. Strohm
==========
: Deep Web Search
Jerry,
I used some of these for my work in college. As you
can imagine, my sources set me apart from those who used books and google. I
thought others here might benefit from such services:
http://www.makeuseof.com/tag/10-search-engines-explore-deep-invisible-web/
I hope someone finds them useful. I have.
--------
BDAB, Joshua Jordan, KSC Percussa Resurgo
I will probably comment on this in the column.
It's an interesting subject.
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