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This week: | Monday
February 22 - 28, 2010 Rules for Writers Hi, Jerry! The Guardian has advice from several authors presented
as rules for writers. here:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/books/2010/ and here:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/books/2010/ Of course, the most commonly offered piece of advice is, write. Writers write. That's what they do. If you're not writing, you're not a writer, no matter how much you want to be one. ..............Karl Lembke ============ Dr. Pournelle -- I can think of only one reason for the Republicans to go to the Health Care Summit. If they don't go, the Democrats will try to force through their plan and shout that the Republicans aren't interested in helping people with health care. If the Republicans do go, they can argue for starting over so that a solid and coherent plan can be put together. They can argue that trying to add patches to the patchwork that is already in place will only make things worse and be seen to be trying to work on a solution. The Democratic leadership isn't likely to agree with this but that's nothing surprising. The Democrats will then try to force through their plan and shout that the Republicans don't want reform. The only difference is that in the run up to November the Republicans can argue that they tried to produce true reform but that the Democrats were too interested in gaining control of the health care system. It's all show and perception but that is often the case in politics. I would rather the emphasis could be upon governance but I don't see that happening any time soon. Pieter I see no reason why the Republicans need to go to Blair House in order to make those arguments. They aren't going to compromise -- I hope they aren't -- because it's clear that the American people don't want this fundamental transformation of our system. What's the point of going to where the President can rail at them for being obstructionists, which is what he will do? In my judgment the proper tactic is to Just Say No. Thank you Mr. President, but no. ============== Harry Erwin's Letter from England As I noted last week, migrating my Mac OS X system to my new laptop took four hours and my Windows Bootcamp system, five days. At this point, I must have lost my presence of mind, because I decided to install Parallels. (See <http://tinyurl.com/bgphda>, <http://tinyurl.com/3cqlsw>, and <http://tinyurl.com/ydrzvah>.) Now my past experience with Parallels had been uniformly negative, but it would have been *very* convenient for me to be able to demonstrate Windows programmes without rebooting into Windows. The install went well enough that I wasn't concerned about the nightly backup. However, I discovered the following morning that the installation had corrupted the registry and the system restore database, and the nightly backup had propagated the corruption into my backup files. (I wish Windows had a backup mechanism that allowed me to recover from a specific date when the system was known to be good!) Recovery only took three days this time. I suppose I do these things so other people can learn from them...
Labour's proposed death tax to fund the care of the aged is stirring up a row. <http://tinyurl.com/yac72cp> People who have taken care of their elderly relatives gratis oppose a death duty surtax to fund care that has never been provided. <http://tinyurl.com/yea6ug8> The UK passports used by Mossad for the Hamas hit were apparently biometric. <http://tinyurl.com/yarka8p> Libel claim against scientist dropped after the scientist countersues. <http://tinyurl.com/ygvx876> MI5 under investigation <http://tinyurl.com/ydswlrr> <http://tinyurl.com/yzq5yt5> Stalinist style NHS management <http://tinyurl.com/ya4azn3> Reduced trash collection across the land to save money <http://tinyurl.com/ylcg5dh> UK pharmacies selling drugs abroad, resulting in domestic shortages <http://tinyurl.com/yzxhzr4> UK report on US high school spying by webcam <http://tinyurl.com/yccwp2y> UK universities looking for ways around the government cap on student places to meet surging demand <http://tinyurl.com/y8mneb6> 20 ways to improve your university--look at #7. <http://tinyurl.com/yfcynf2> Tories considering a big shake up of UK income tax <http://tinyurl.com/ybw3bm5> -- Beware Outside Context Problems--Harry Erwin, PhD The worst of it is that I have that to do with my Mac Book Pro... ========= Debate on Civil Liberties in the UK See <http://tinyurl.com/ykq82pn> -- Harry Erwin, PhD ============ Local funding, local control and subsidiarity... http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/14/us/14beverly.html?ref=global-home I am astonished at the lack of vitriol in this article. It's from the New York Times, which should be talking about how the parents of those 480 students need to organize sit ins and protest strikes. I am particularly amused by the argument of "You should be going to your own schools and improving them..." made it in. K ============= WUWT? Do they accelerate to C with zero EM force applied?
http://www.popsci.com/scitech/article/ Bi2Te3 in two layers -- a simple concept. But one that suggests major mysteries waiting to be explored. Brian H. I don't pretend to understand this. Perhaps if I read it three more times. Or I can wait since we have readers who do understand it. I think I'll do that. ============= France leapfrogs past Australia in Big Brother stakes I wonder how long it will take our socialists to be clamoring to ‘elevate our society to the level of sophistication enjoyed in Europe’
=============d
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This week: | Tuesday,
February 23, 2010 Subject: "massless electrons" Jerry, Short response in regards the article at
http://www.popsci.com/ The article is very sloppy in language. Photons propagating in crystals do not act the same as free photons in space; the statement is that electrons confined to the surface layers of bismuth telluride behave like photons in a bulk crystal, with propagation controlled by interaction with the atomic electric fields in either case. That's probably an oversimplification... Dr. Jim Thanks. ============= Car CPUs Dr. Pournelle, I'm concerned about the whole car CPU hardware/software problem. I don't know the source of the Toyota problems, but it seems to me that it wouldn't be impossible to infect the vehicle CPU with some type of virus, during coding or testing or by some after-sale maintenance--can scan tools or similar equipment be infected? Would it be possible to infect one CPU, then let it infect a diagnostic device, then let that device infect random cars attached to it for diagnosis later? A zombified diagnostic system doesn't seem beyond the realm of the possible. I'm no expert on cars at all--but it seems to me that having one computer have responsibility for brakes, engine management, console display, etc., is dangerous. A dead or non-functioning CPU means no power assists plus jammed accelerator at worse case, but an infected CPU might be a car that WON'T shift into neutral or an engine that WON'T shut off if the ignition is turned off . . . I'm beginning to freak myself out. There's obviously money to be saved in using fewer parts; that's why turn signals also control headlights, for example, but one CPU in charge of everything may also mean that a virus could control everything. Arthur Clarke's HAL on four wheels doesn't appeal to me. For safety as well as redundancy, the computer controlling regenerativebraking should be functionally and electronically separate from other computers controlling engine management, and there could perhaps be some way to override a bad module and assume direct control of the brakes. There are just too many nasty scenarios. I hope Napoleon's law about incompetence being more likely than malice applies, but there seems to be room for malice. Is there a really disgruntled programmer working for Toyota? jomath When I had to fly on the B-52 I was thankful that the old mechanical cable system remained in the old girl. It was never needed, although the pilot once demonstrated to me that it worked.
============ Assassination Dear Dr. Pournelle, I read your comments on the use of assassination with war with interest, but I am frankly perplexed. Hasn't the United States been running a campaign of 'targeted killings' using Predator drones against people in places like Yemen and Somalia? In fact, according to the Washington Post,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ Such operations have increased since the Obama administration took office. Live prisoners are evidently an inconvenience , in the post-Gitmo order. I don't see any warrants or trials. So this is extrajudicial killing. Of terrorists, yes. Isn't Hamas also a terrorist organization? Why is it that the US can carry out who knows how many 'targeted killings' of terrorists without a word of protest even from our own liberals, but Israel kills one and everyone flies into a huff about it? I don't understand the thinking of the rest of the world. Either a state has the right to defend itself by killing terrorist operatives on foreign soil, or it doesn't. If there is no fault in blowing up a car in Yemen with a predator, there is no fault in strangling a man to death in a hotel room. In fact, it occurs to me there's probably less danger of collateral casualties with the second approach -- the personal touch is always more retail than death from thousands of feet up. I wonder how many times we zapped the wrong car and it never made the news? On the other side of the fence -- if Israel is to be condemned for murdering terrorists, we must also condemn our own tactics as well. Or am I missing something? Respectfully, Brian P. Perhaps my comments were too subtle. A sniper targets a single individual, usually one that poses no threat to him at the time. A bombardier targets a lot of people, few of whom are shooting at him (although in today's war the targets are probably shooting at someone we don't want shot at). Hamas launches rockets in the general direction of Tel Aviv. An assassination team knows who the target is, and seldom has collateral damage. Would it have been better for Israel to wait until the guy got home and bomb his house? I don't know how many times we have zapped the wrong car, but we do know what happened in Dresden, Berlin, London, Manchester, Tokyo, Cologne... ============== A Positive Education Story!!!, Jerry, Thanks to Facebook and reconnecting with lots of classmates and teachers, I learned that one of my teacher's sons has a neat program at Burr and Burton Academy in Manchester, NH. This is a hybrid school in that it serves as a local high school, but also as a private school for students from other places. Bill Muench ( http://www.blogger.com/profile/27794335 ) is an English teacher. He teaches astronomy and runs the astronomy club: https://sites.google.com/a/burrburton.org/astronomy/Home He also teaches a class called Space and Time:
I was excited about this high school ( www.burrburton.org ) just looking at the website. We need more schools like this and fewer of what we have today! Sue Hurrah! =========== New TSA logo You probably have gotten a bunch of these. Or perhaps not. Anyway: http://reason.com/assets/mc/jsullum/2010_02/TSA-logo.jpg ========== Space Jerry, Just got a new AWST a couple of minutes ago. Glancing through it I noticed a clearly growing trend. Page 52 "Boeing is using $18 million in federal stimulus money to develop... Page 53 ""Sierra Nevada Corp. has $20 million in federal stimulus funds for its Dream Chaser... On the news last night they spoke as though with the end of the Shuttle flights NASA is will have hardly any funding. Hmmm, instead of billions for NASA, tens of millions to private companies to help jump start private vehicles to do whatever is needed. So the government funds prototypes not programs. What a radical idea. I wonder where they could have heard of that? <grin> I know what I heard a man muttering about between the LASFS buildings. He also said something about seeing a sign on a President's desk. My memory is crap, but I think he said the sign said something like: "It doesn't matter who gets the credit, as long as the job gets done." A good motto for those who spend their lives working their butts off. {For those wondering about the story, it was me who was muttering. Reagan had that sign on his desk. This was at a LASFS meeting.} [Through the miracle of Google a few key strokes gets me: "Famous Quote by Harry S Truman: 'It is amazing how much you can accomplish when it doesn't matter who gets the credit.' "] {I hadn't heard that Truman was the source, but it doesn't surprise me. Reagan admired Truman.} Dan Mc If NASA will begin funding real X Projects -- something I have been trying to get going for a long time -- the results will be good. Note that X=33 was NOT an X-project. For more on X projects, see my short essay on getting to space. It was written some time ago but it remains relevant. ============= Just the facts on the Federal Budget Jerry, I like fivethirtyeight.com, because Nate does a good job separating the facts from his opinions. Agree with his conclusions or not, this has some good info on Federal budget trends over the last 40 years.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02 Chuck =========== Thoughts on sociology, Jerry That piece you referenced - how a new jobless era will transform America - covers a lot of ground. It is really a sociology piece. That got me to thinking about probably the most important sociology piece ever written - the one done before WW2. The War Dept. detected a disturbance in the ranks around 1940. They hired sociologist, who went into the barracks and within months came out and wrote up his findings. This was back in the OHIO days - "Over The Hill In October." The War Department took his advice seriously and made rapid changes. Whatever sociology has or has not become today, the piece you referenced is very good. Ed ========== SUBJECT: The Boneyard: aircraft cemetary Hi Jerry. Some impressive pictures of 309th Aerospace Maintenance and Regeneration Group (AMARG) facility, AKA The Boneyard. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8530165.stm Cheers, Mike Casey ========= Climate change and open science
http://online.wsj.com/article/ Phil
For a PDF copy of A Step Farther Out:
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This week: |
Wednesday,
February 24, 2010 probably the truth in the Toyota "fault"
http://online.wsj.com/article/
Phil I saw that one, and I tend to agree. The actual number of cases is small. Most of this is probably operator error. People do panic. The troubling one is the highway patrolman. Not likely he panicked, although he didn't think to put it in neutral, and he crashed and burned. That accelerator must have been stuck. No data on whether had the bad floor rugs. There are a few other disturbing stories, but there were lots of stories about cars suddenly going into reverse told by clearly sincere people. If someone wants to give me a Lexus I'll be glad to drive it; perhaps I can chant "put it in neutral" as I drive, just in case. I don't think there's a fundamental problem with Toyota. Mr. Toyoda is being assaulted by photographers even as I write this. I wonder which Congresscritters will grandstand this. Surely at least one will. ============ SA'10 Preliminary Conference Info, 02/24/10. Space Access '10, our upcoming annual conference on the technology, politics, and business of radically cheaper access to space, featuring a cross-section of leading players in the field, will once again be the place to hear the latest on the fast-moving entrepreneurial new-space industry. Space Access conferences are set up to maximize opportunities for trading information and making deals. No rubber-chicken banquets, just an intensive single-track presentations schedule in a setting with plenty of comfortable places nearby to go off during the breaks, grab a drink or a bite, and talk. SA'10 is less than two months away. Book your flights and rooms soon - early April is still winter sunshine tourist season in Phoenix, so affordable rooms and good airfares can be hard to come by at the last second. We are well along on organizing the conference presentations at this point and the agenda is shaping up nicely, but it's not complete yet - stay tuned for further additions to the program at http://www.space-access.org. One way we get the up-to-the-minute latest on this new industry is to stay flexible right up to the last minute. Look for a detailed program schedule about two weeks before the conference starts. Overall Conference Schedule: - Thursday April 8th, sessions 2 pm - ~10 pm - Friday April 9th, sessions 9 am - ~10 pm - Saturday April 10th, sessions 9 am - ~ 6 pm - Space Access Hospitality Suite open till late all three nights. I may or may not be going. I didn't make it last year, but Niven did. =========== : Fw: A sign of things to come? Jerry, A follow-up to the earlier article about Rhode Island teachers being fired. The superintendent was backed by the Central Falls school Board of Trustees.
http://www.projo.com/news/content/
============= What is the worse threat...
Wow, does that question resonate. I think that you have asked the question that requires at least as much study and is far less understood than "climate change." Depending upon your position and viewpoint, the worst threat changes drastically. While capitalism combined with a representative democracy seems to me to be the best political system that humankind has came up with, it is not "fair", "just", or "equitable." This presents a "threat" to anyone, though most of us tend to relish the challenge and more or less succeed. Those who do not succeed, or whose success is particularly fragile, have a wildly different opinion on what is the worst threat, than those who are more secure financially and professionally. You of course know all this, not only intellectually, but way down deep, and you automatically account for it and attempt to find a rational solution. I usually tend to agree with you, at least on everything but the goals of most Democrats, and in particular the current President - creeps and nuts being excepted. :) But- a huge segment of the population does not agree just because they feel threatened. Threat -> Fear -> Anger. Thus you find the people attracted to the agendas proposed by the creeps and nuts. And the country club Republicans foster this fear with arrogant attitudes that at least appear to be an assumption of the "right to rule". It does not matter that they may actually be better fit to govern the country, the attitude scares a lot of people. Fear -> Anger -> Nuts+Creeps. Even more so, most people are busy just trying to make a living and have a normal life. They really are not terribly interested in what congress critters and other politicians are doing, because it doesn't directly and immediately affect them. So what if taxes get raised? I am going to be paying a ton of taxes *anyway* - do I want to to spend all the time and effort to save say, $100 on my tax bill? People get just exactly as much government as they are unwilling to oppose. :) In any event, I am sure that not much, if any, of that thinking is original with me, but it sure seems to make sense. Just like your multi-dimensional scale of political ideology (or should that be political theology? :) makes way more sense than a simple "right / left" scale. Has anyone built a "threat scale" to measure how threatening any particular idea is to any or all segments of the population? Is there any way to do so in a reliable and rational manner? I know that pollsters do something similar, but I am not at sure that poll results are any more meaningful that isolated discrete points on an analog scale. You need a whole bunch of them over a length of time significant to what you are trying to measure, to plot any kind of meaningful and objective result. -Paul ======== Note from the Legions Re: Brian P on Assasination Hello Dr Pournelle, I'm at an Army school for the rest of the week, and have extremely limited internet access. The US was unable to carry out targeted killings via drone launched missiles without Progressive complaint prior to the election, I saw many such complaints by those charging lack of proper legal underpinnings for the operation and eroding the goodwill of Pakistan. Those charges vanished as we stepped up the attacks once we had our presidential change. I don't believe there is anything Israel can do short of unconditional surrender which wouldn't subject them to savage attacks in the media and educational institutions. Certainly a targetting strangling of a known terrorist would seem a no brainer, and it is open source knowledge that Israel stopped the program to blow up those connected to the Munich Olympics killings when they blew up an Arab living in Norway who turned out to be a noted anti-semite but not provably a terrorist. They still came under much protest for that action. When we kill the wrong target, the enemy ensures their tame media connections trumpet it to the world. There is no such thing as a cover-up, it serves their information operation plan far too well to keep it quiet. Similarly, if we kill the right person, anyone else killed in the mission is broadcast to the media, and if we don't kill anyone by accident, they aren't above making it up because they know they won't get much of a challenge until well after their target audience has forgotten the events. http://www.longwarjournal.org/ often has reporting on the drone attacks. I recall the Teddy Bear that appeared in a dozen different stories about the Israeli excursions. ============= 'Most of the cubicle-dwellers in the CIA’s Directorate of Intelligence are academics who didn’t get tenure and chose the government’s health and pension benefits over the uncertainties of adjunct teaching.' <http://www.tabletmag.com/ -- Roland Dobbins ============ According to the Daily News in 2009 ( http://www.dailynews.com/news/ci_10579911 ): "Meanwhile, Los Angeles Unified teachers on average earn $63,000, less than teachers in districts ranging from New York City and San Diego to Chicago and San Francisco." "San Francisco high school teachers earn an average $75,817 a year and San Jose high school teachers earn an average $73,361 a year. LAUSD high school teachers have an average salary of just under $62,000." It seems to me that teachers make a very nice wage,
especially when one considers that teachers work an average of 38 weeks a
year. The Hoover Institution looked at the issue of teacher pay from a
Conservative standpoint (
http://www.hoover.org/publications/ Add to the salary the benefits package, the limited work year, the difficulty in terminating bad teachers and one quickly begins to wonder why one didn't become a high school teacher. It's no wonder that the teachers I know are driving BMWs and Lexuses (Lexi?). -- -- Christian I don't think all teachers are overpaid; the best are getting no more than they deserve; but the top brackets are not for the best, but for the longest serving and the most "credentialed". Actual merit pay and pay for results is not allowed. ========== History from 1877 onward... You may have already seen this. But I wanted to make sure. http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,584758,00.html -Ethan Forget the Alamo! And what's this about a Revolution? Nothing happened in 1812... And Texas has always been part of the United States. ========= : Workflow in the House | The Casual Optimist http://www.casualoptimist.com/?p=3611 Dear Jerry: Apparently I'm not the only one with quality issues on e-books. Regards, Francis Hamit ===================w
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This week: |
Thursday,
February 25, 2010 Sand Hill Rd. Versus Wall Street
http://online.wsj.com/article/
Being a funded startup, I heartily agree. Phil There is no evidence that anyone in the White House has enough business experieince to understand this. I mean no disrespect, but where would this Brains Trust have learned how the real world works? ============= You're not a climate skeptic Jerry, You might be interested in this post at
WattsUpWithThat.com. It seems you're not a climate denier or skeptic, you're a "climate auditor".
This is from a guest post by Dr. Judith curry, on how the climate change establishment can rebuild public trust. The first step, of course, is admitting that public trust has been lost. The second is to realize why it's been lost. Recent disclosures about the IPCC have brought up a host of concerns about the IPCC that had been festering in the background: involvement of IPCC scientists in explicit climate policy advocacy; tribalism that excluded skeptics; hubris of scientists with regards to a noble (Nobel) cause; alarmism; and inadequate attention to the statistics of uncertainty and the complexity of alternative interpretations. In the end... No one really believes that the “science is settled” or that “the debate is over.” Scientists and others that say this seem to want to advance a particular agenda. There is nothing more detrimental to public trust than such statements. And finally, I hope that this blogospheric experiment will demonstrate how the diversity of the different blogs can be used collectively to generate ideas and debate them, towards bringing some sanity to this whole situation surrounding the politicization of climate science and rebuilding trust with the public. ..............Karl Lembke If the global warming consensus collapses, it will largely be due to the Internet. Billions are at stake. ============ NEA Opposition to Charter Schools Jerry, I think you might like this article on charter schools. http://www.city-journal.org/2010/20_1_snd-nea.html Joel Upchurch The NEA and the Department of Education are the best illustrations I know of the truth of the Iron Law. The data are available, but no one seems to care any more. Incidentally, the LA school board reneged on some of the charter schools and will turn them over to the teachers and administrators. In a few years we will find that did no good, but we'll lose a generation in finding that truth. The LA public school system is a disaster. Not unmitigated: there are some good schools in it. But they're hard to get into. The system exists to protect its NEA members and assure them of jobs and pensions; any other purpose is secondary. There appears to be no way around this. If you want to complain they will schedule you a 5 minute appointment in six months or more, in a big public meeting. There's no assurance that anyone on the board will listen. ============= Subj: Climate change: multiple mutually confirming studies or... ... multiple photographs of the one-and-only-ever-discovered skull of Piltdown Man, taken with various cameras, under various lighting conditions, from various angles, with various types of lenses, etc. etc. ad nauseam? Rod Montgomery==monty@starfief.com =========== Hi Jerry! I found this website that I guess does the same as the Alien Names program you mentioned in your February 8 column. It's here: http://www.abooks.com/alien/ It seems to be made by the very same Ralph Roberts that you mention. Thanks for the ever interesting site you have! Cheers! Knut Andersen Oslo, Norway =========== The use of classical music as punishment/deterrent in England.
http://reason.com/archives/ "There will always be a large island off the coast of France." John Good grief. ==================w
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This week: |
Friday,
February 26, 2010
Jerry, In Firefox you may either directly backup/restore your tab list(s), or export/import them as html. In Firefox, in the very top toolbar go to: Bookmarks -> Organize Bookmarks -> Import and Backup Seventy open tabs? You have boggled my tiny mind! Regards, Brian Claypool Yes, I had one of those restoration lists -- from last December. Ah well. Thanks ========= On the Tuesday NBC News, Brian Williams said, "a lot of people would be surprised to learn that gas pedals in some of these cars are wireless devices, no more wire to the engine," thereby indicating that he thought that "drive by wire" meant pulling on a wire, and reinforcing my opinion that "fly by wire" is bass ackwards and *M*I*S*L*E*A*D*I*N*G*, even though they're never going to change it. I'd like to know who came up with the usage. I guess I first heard it for the Mercury capsule. The guy must not have been an aviator. Planes were controlled by pulling on wires since 1903. RH Well, those were cables; then came hydraulics, and some aircraft had hydraulic only. The B-52 retained cables in addition to hydraulics. Then came servos and electrical control. That was known as fly by wire because it was electrical (as opposed to cable and hydraulic). Gemini was the first spacecraft to "fly by wire" meaning there were no mechanical backups. Of course Mercury didn't have much in the way of control to begin with, but what it had was hydraulic. Fly by wire didn't sound odd in those days. ========== Jerry, As regards the issue of the warmest years on record, there was notification about three years ago that Hansen's data set at NASA Goddard had been skewed by errors, and that the corrected data divided the "ten hottest years on record" between the 1930's and the period since 1998. I can no longer find easily accessible web records regarding this correction, and what I find claim that the correction applied to US only data; that, however, is NOT what I recall. Given the now obvious data manipulation associated with the terrestrial temperature records, including NOAA discontinuing use of 4,500 out of 6,000 real temperature stations, mostly situated at higher altitude, higher latitude, more rural, and more inland locations relative to the stations kept, then used the remaining data to "interpolate" the replaced data points, I don't know that any reasonable statistician can speak regarding the actual state of the data. "Start from scratch" is the only viable option. Which the politicians are refusing to do; they continue to maintain that it's real, settled, and that drastic measures are necessary immediately. As usual, a full analysis of the UAH data sets is worthwhile. http://www.drroyspencer.com/ http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/atmos/christy.html Jim I do not know how to estimate the Earth's temperature in 1938 to within a half of a degree. I would like to see the procedure used to do that, and the measures employed. I know even less how to estimate the Earth's temperature in 900 AD. I can look at some monastery reports of growing seasons and crops, and accounts of Viking settlements, but estimating temperatures of the entire Earth to within a degree does not seem reliable. I also do not know the effect of rising temperatures on CO2; as temperature goes up, so will CO2 as the oceans warm. I don't know how much, and from what I've seen in the literature neither do the scientists: we have estimates, but the accuracies are not what seems to be claimed by the consensus. I believe the weight of evidence is that it has been much warmer and much colder that at present during historical times. That doesn't mean we should ignore CO2 levels and ocean ph changes, but it does mean that the problem isn't as acute as the alarmists claim it to be. The answer is more data -- more reliable and repeatable data. We also need to look into the formulae for reducing the observations to a single figure of merit. == Subject: Winter likely to be fourth-longest stretch with snow cover Jerry, This has cut severely into my Harley riding this winter in Billings….I had an almost 7 week stretch where I didn’t even start the beast up. Sure could use a little extra greenhouse gas this year. Winter likely to be fourth-longest stretch with snow cover
http://www.billingsgazette.com/news/local/ …While plenty of snow remains piled throughout the city, the official National Weather Service recording site at Billings Logan International Airport is likely to be snow-free very soon. When the last trace has melted away in 40-degree weather, the winter of 2009-2010 will likely have chalked up the fourth-longest stretch of snow cover since recordkeeping began at the airport in 1934….. Tracy Walters, CISSP But the climate specialists estimate to a tenth of a degree ============ This is quite long; it gives the views of Big Science on the subject. I wonder at this; it appears to be the Iron Law in action to me. APS "Commentary" on AGW Statement Jerry, I have kept my APS membership up, and recently received some e-mail concerning their 2007 statement on AGW, and their proposesed "Commentary" on the statement. The URL for member review is not available to the general public. The captured text is below. My reply, in suitably academic terms, was to the effect that we are in danger of being the laughing stock of today's laymen and the next generation of researchers. Instead of releasing the "Commentary," we need to put the 2007 statement in abeyance until we sort out the widespread professional misbehavior in the AGW community. Alan -
It still looks like Iron Law to me. =========== "Voilà! C'est la Légion!"
http://spectator.org/archives/ You’ll enjoy. Chris Christopher =========== Dr. Pournelle, I do not consider myself a conservative but have always enjoyed reading your views because they always seem reasonable and well thought out. You are my primary resource for keeping up on the climate change debate, and therefore the state of big science. Data driven and thoughtful, your commentary helps cut through so much of the noise. In Friday’s view I was surprised to see your quote attributed to the President: “and the President said ‘Guess what? I won. Get used to it.’” That seemed a bit more inflammatory then everything I’ve read about the summit and so I tried to find the quote. I couldn’t find a transcript of the summit and so couldn’t find the quote. I’d be disappointed if you presented something as a direct quote when perhaps you meant it as a piece of art. I have greater faith in you than the current mob of nuts and creeps. You point out that the “At least the Republicans won the game.” I suggest that unless the Nuts and the Creeps can find some common ground we are all going to lose. David Spiciarich Apologies: President Obama did not use those words in the summit, although it's not an unfair translation of what he did say. The actual taunt was made about a year ago at another conference.
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2009/01/23/ ==================w
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This week: | Saturday,
February 27, 2010 Re: Italian Madness Dear Dr. Pournelle, the "Italian Madness" shouldn't really be considered much out of the ordinary in a country, supposedly free, that three weeks ago straight out forbid access to "the Pirate Bay" through an IP Filter ordered to any and all Internet Service Providers on national territory. And which recently passed a "media tax" which will go (what's left over from the bureaucracy, at least) to performing artists, but which is applied to any and all memory media: hard disks, thumbdrives, memory cards (even something like CF Flash cards, which are used almost exclusively for photography - with ONE'S OWN photographs), and DVD recorders. The tax varies with the medium, but on a 1TB hard disk can reach 10euro ($14-15). Best regards, James Siddall jr =========== Crichton on Global Warming Dr. Pournelle; In Appendix 1 of his book State of Fear - published in 2004 - he follows his discussion of the eugenics and Lysenko theories and practice with this comment
At the time he was dismissed as knowing nothing about the subject. Robert Patton The grant system vs. industry financing: the consensus mongers accused all Deniers of having oil company money. Until recently few noticed that to get any kind of grant other than from a private company, you had to adhere to the consensus. It's all unraveling now, and perhaps something will come of it all. =================
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This week: | Sunday, February
28, 2010
We had family visiting today.
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