| Tuesday,
September 1, 2009
weather models
Jerry,
And regarding your e-mail from Paul
Martin, might I call your attention to
http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/atmos/christy_pubs.html
The first two papers shown have pdf's linked. Quoting
from the abstracts:
* Douglass, D.H., J.R. Christy, 2009: Limits on CO2
climate forcing from recent temperature data of Earth. Energy & Environment,
20, 178-189 (Invited paper, reviewed by Editor.) (pdf) <http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/
atmos/christy/2009_DouglassC_EE.pdf>
"(Global atmospheric temperature anomalies) do not
have the signature associated with CO2 climate forcing. However, the data
show a small underlying positive trend that is consistent with CO2 climate
forcing with no feedback."
{In other words, there may be a warming effect due to
the CO2, but the maximum forcing assumed by most climate models is not
observed in the data.}
* Douglass, D.H., J.R. Christy, B.D. Pearson and S.F.
Singer, 2007: A comparison of tropical temperature trends with model
predictions. International J. Climatology, DOI: 10.1002/joc.1651. (pdf)
<http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/atmos/
christy/2007_Dougless_etal.pdf>
"(Comparing 67 runs from 22 models with observed data)
Model results and observed temperature trends are in disagreement ... by
more than twice the uncertainty of the model mean."
In other words, the data does NOT show warming, and
everyone knows that the data does not show warming.
Jim
The models can't predict reality so we stop using
reality to validate the models; they are now used to validate each other.
This is not the philosophy of science I learned from Gustav Bergmann at
the University of Iowa, nor does it have anything to do with truth as
defined by Popper. There is no conceivable way to falsify those models.
Surprise.
===========
United Kingdom
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/
news/article-1210133/
A-storm-London-
Its-capital-offence-say-L-word-
admits-TV-weather-girl.html
Is finally circling the drain about to flush for the
last time. Political correctness taken to mega extremes.
Robert
Imagine my astonishment. Those whom the gods
would destroy...
===
Just in from Europe about Cap and Trade (= Ration
and Tax)
Consider that President Obama's top science adviser,
climate Czar, John Holdren, is a long-time globalist who has endorsed and
advocated for "surrender of sovereignty" to "a comprehensive Planetary
Regime" that would control the entire world's resources, direct global
redistribution of wealth, oversee the "de-development" of the West, control
a World Army and taxation regime, and enforce world population limits. He
has castigated the United States as "the meanest of wealthy countries,"
written a justification for compulsory abortion and sterilization of
American women, advocated drastically lowering the U.S. standard of living,
and left the door open to trying global warming "deniers" for crimes against
humanity.
This is the business the UN's IPCC is about. This is
the eventual end-game of cap-and-trade policy. If it passes the Senate this
coming September, and is signed into law, we will have passed the event
horizon: the America we inherited will implode.
For the first time since America's incarnation, it
will then be the official, codified policy of the federal government that
the present generation must have its liberty and prosperity diminished
without limits; and for the next generation, the American Dream will become
criminalized. All in the name of a non-existent climate crisis.
<http://www.americanthinker.com/
2009/08/the_real_climate_agenda.html>
John D. Trudel
==
Carbon-sense, the battle of our times....
Something "spot on" and just in from our allies across
the pond. Eco-Fascism revealed in the proper political context. God Bless 'em.
http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/
uploads/2009/08/battle-of-our-times.pdf
This one is a Keeper....
Best,
John D. Trudel
I agree that this is the crucial cultural battle:
between health care and environmentalism, it's pretty well the end of
economic liberty. Perhaps that is good, perhaps not, but surely it
deserves debate.
==
Obama as Huey Long?
I'm amazed to be recommending a George Will article,
particularly one from Newsweek, but one finds gold where one can.
"In August our ubiquitous president became the
nation's elevator music, always out and about, heard but not really listened
to, like audible wallpaper. And now, as Congress returns to resume wrestling
with health care reform, we shall see if he continues his August project of
proving that the idea of an Ivy League Huey Long is not oxymoronic."
He goes on to skewer cap-and-trade with reference to
an analysis by Steven Hayward and Kenneth Green of the American Enterprise
Institute that demonstrates that the Waxman-Markey goal of 2.4 tons of CO2
per capita by 2050 is utterly unrealistic and closes:
"Obviously Hayward and Green are correct that meeting
the 2.4-ton goal "is not going to be seriously attempted." So why do the
same politicians who want to radically expand government's control of health
care pretend otherwise? Because they are not serious people. Which is why so
many Americans are seriously alarmed."
http://www.newsweek.com/id/214268
David Smith
We no longer study history. Mussolini died a
believer in Socialism. Not Marxism, but classical Socialism. He said so
often. Fascism was a form of socialism. Mussolini accepted class warfare.
Instead of liquidating all classes but the proletariat, the Fascist
solution was to force the classed to work together, with mechanisms like
Roosevelt's NRA (derived from Fascist theory). Of course Huey Long
understood all this very well indeed. The comparison of Obama to Huey Long
is apt. Both were bright showmen with great oratory capability; and both
had ideas much similar to non-Marxist Socialism.
============
The Good Enough Revolution
- When Cheap and Simple Is Just Fine:
http://www.wired.com/gadgets/
miscellaneous/magazine/17-09/
ff_goodenough?currentPage=all
The story basically shows how Pareto's 80/20 rule has
begun to conquer markets, from the "MP3 effect" to Kaiser-Permanente's
microclinics. Worth your time.
Ed
I really do not understand why Pareto is so
neglected: he was the most scientific of the social scientists, his
theories are useful for prediction, and yet few have heard of him now.
He's not all that easy to read -- the translations are not good. The best
explication on Pareto I know of is in
Burnham's The Machiavellians.
==============
More discussion of
health care
Rulemaking
Jerry -
Regarding the "nobody knows what's in the Health Care
Reform bills" discussion: as is typical of these kinds of laws, the rubber
hits the road in the regulations. Browse through the text and you'll see a
lot of "The Secretary (of HHS) shall, within (time) of enactment of this
legislation, promulgate regulations which will do (something)."
My experience with the HIPAA regulations suggests that
the time between enactment and promulgation will be filled with meetings
with supplicants/stakeholders/lobbyists/sharks fine-tuning those regulations
to their best interests, be they financial or ideological. In the case of
HIPAA things went well for us IT folks without doing a whole lot for medical
record privacy (my opinion only, your mileage may vary). I am personally
inclined to believe that most or all of the similar situations with whatever
"Health Care Reform" is ultimately enacted will trend toward favoring
corporate interests and "progressive" notions of technocratic management
rather than the kind of individual control over important medical decisions
that the 1947 Nuremberg Code envisioned.
I hope I'm wrong, and as you frequently say, despair
is a sin.
David Smith
precisely
===
Kaiser Microclinics
Jerry,
There is an article in Wired discussing Kaiser's
experiments with Microclinics. Two doctors in a strip mall clinic can handle
80% of patient's need and they have HD videoconferencing to help them when
they need specialist assistance and, of course, the serious cases go to
Kaiser's hospital.
http://www.wired.com/gadgets/miscellaneous/
magazine/17-09/ff_goodenough?currentPage=5
Joel Upchurch
Of course free clinics with paramedics --
particularly military veterans -- have been useful for years. But clearly
this sort of thing is more affordable than revamping the entire system. I
doubt it is much discussed in The Bill.
===========
Logical Fallacy
Dr. Pournelle,
Although I am not overly concerned with how the health
care debate ends, I am interested in how the debate is conducted. Like
scissors, each side sharpens their position to a razor's edge but it is
where the blades meets that the work gets done. We will survive whatever the
outcome, but we will advance our position, our knowledge and our
philosophical position with a worthy debate. In that light, I read an email
from Tom, a Canadian who seemed a bit incensed at the Whole Foods CEO
Mackey's article that used a statistic that Tom could not confirm. The
specific statistic was that "...830,000 Canadians are waiting to be admitted
to a hospital or to get treatment." While it was just an opinion piece, it
would have been nice if Mr. Mackey cited references. First I would like to
point out that because one does not know or understand a premise or argument
does not make it wrong and does not make it's opposite true (or any other
combination of rights and wrongs). That is a logical fallacy and can be read
about here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_ignorance Secondly, for
his benefit and the benefit of other incensed Canadians, these statistics
are reported by The Fraser Institute of Vancouver. Their data is generated
from "Statistics Canada"
www.statcan.gc.ca
The statistic does seem to be dated. The reported
number of Canadians waiting for medical care (those who had an appointment
with a specialist and are now waiting for procedures) was estimated at
840,358 in 1999, 878,008 in 2000-01 but down to 750,794 in 2008. Average
wait times have improved too, from 16.2 weeks in 2000-01 to 8.7 weeks in
2008. That varies greatly from region to region and procedure to procedure.
Checking www.health.gov.on.ca
you can see that some hospitals have a 212 day waiting list for
non-emergency surgery.
Even though the precise number may not be agreed upon,
that does little to influence the correctness of the statement that was
being supported with the statistic. "All countries with socialized medicine
ration health care by forcing their citizens to wait in lines to receive
scarce treatments." I would like to see in depth numbers to support such an
sweeping generalization. Tom's personal experiences are no more germaine
than mine are. I spent the first 20 years of my adult life in an enviroment
that I find balances entitlement and empowerment the best that I have seen.
That would be the U.S. military. I did become disabled and recieved great
care until it was determined that my condition could not be corrected to
100%. I had to retire and now can only be seen by the same doctors and
hospitals on a 'space-A' system. Tom's personal experiences do not seem to
reflect the total Canadian experience and likewise I know that my own
experiences do not mirror what every other American appreciates.
Kelly
Of course a long waiting list for non-urgent
surgery to be paid for by someone else is perhaps to be expected. Why
should it not be? The question is are you allowed to pay for it yourself
and not wait?
==
Jerry,
As regards your response to Hugh:
As I recall, the Declaration of Independence declares
the minimum set of rights as "life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness."
It doesn't declaim happiness as a right -- but it does so declaim life.
Now, haven fallen under the not always proper
influence of Spider Robinson at about the same time (and in the same venue
-- <i>Galaxy</i>) that I fell under yours -- and incidentally at about that
same time (1975), chanced to be the person who discovered the body of a
great aunt after she jumped into the well, I'm not necessarily quick to
judge someone who has determined <i>for themselves</i> that the pursuit of
happiness is so likely to be unsuccessful that they are willing to undertake
<i>by themselves</i> the search for a final friend, or at least the
selection of nutrition and painkillers and no further treatment.
But for <i>anyone</i> else to make that decision is
murder, pure and simple, and has been so viewed by Christianity in all of
it's incarnations for its entire history. (I might concede that a heartfelt
attempt to help someone in distress in this regard is no worse than
manslaughter, and might in some circumstances and with appropriate controls
be allowable under civil law, but the person in distress must make the
unambiguous decision first.)
I otherwise agree that any bill which does not
explicitly repudiate the recent case in Oregon is <i>a priori</i> not an
acceptable model for healthcare reform. Note that this is a necessary
condition, and may be single most important necessary condition, but it is
still MANY steps from being sufficient, relative to the widely circulated
drafts of H.3200. And I don't disagree with Palin's choice of the term
"death panel" to describe any process which does not explicitly repudiate
counseling the patient about suicide as an option, or which places choices
for payment of treatment out of the hands of the primary care physician and
the patient.
Jim
My concern is who will be on those panels: almost
inevitably it will be "ethicists". I have yet to meet an "ethicist" who
made a favorable impression on me, either intellectually or personally.
The ones I have met are intellectual snobs who have less to be snobbish
about than they think. Of course I have not met all that many of them, but
I find little in print to contradict my impression.
==
Universal Health Care; Stephenson Screens
Jerry,
I wonder why no one has brought up the first and
largest universal health care system ever. It was inflicted upon the
Russians, the poor bastards, quite a while ago. G. B. Shaw and Walter
Duranty spoke well of it.
For the climate war fans I recommend Kooistra's three
page squib in the November ANALOG on Stephenson Screens. Word was out in the
technical community in the mid-90s that Jim Hanson was cooking temperature
data, but I am surprised that NOAA incompetence made such a significant
contribution; and it looks like only 11% of the numbers are potentially
recoverable. Coupled with the loss of all Russian data post, say 1985, there
seems to be only theology left to the arguments.
I was a viable fetus (in the current vernacular) when
Willie Yeats died. "Mere anarchy" turns out to be an understatement.
Val Augstkalns
============
Harry Reid vs. the Review-Journal
http://www.lvrj.com/opinion/56171937.html
Apparently Harry Reid was nasty to the wrong reporter.
R,
============
'When Russian spies are caught and deported, it is
not a sign of Russian strength but rather of desperation and ineptitude.'
<http://www.praguepost.com/opinion/
2091-not-so-secret-spying.html>
--- Roland Dobbins
==========
When is coffee food?
(As Ann Althouse puts it:)
Q: When is coffee food? A: When they need it to be
in order to fine you for smoking.
http://www.nypost.com/seven/08312009/
news/regionalnews/smoke_and_
ire_over_free_java_187280.htm
[Owner Vince Nastri III] first got into hot water
on June 10, when Health Department inspectors arrived at his shop, at 75
Broad St., to check out a complaint that cigar odor was wafting to the
building's upper floors.
The inspectors decided the complaint was
unfounded. But one inspector pointed out the coffee machine, which
customers used gratis to make themselves espressos, lattes and
cappuccinos.
"That's illegal," the inspector pronounced -- and
issued Nastri a citation, which can lead to fines ranging from $200 to
$2,000.
Nastri found himself in a classic Catch-22
situation.
To serve coffee -- even free coffee -- he needs a
permit to operate a food-service establishment. But smoking is banned in
food-service establishments.
Realizing that resistance would be futile, Nastri
had the machine removed.
(emailer adds: Of course, I'm sure that the
inspector in question doesn't see any problem at all. Someone was In
Violation, and they were Cited, and they Chose To Comply With The Law.
That's how it's supposed to work, right? I mean, after all, it's for the
public's benefit that they not be permitted to do dangerous things,
right?)
I'm from the government and I am here to help
you.
===========
World must plan for climate emergency: report -
Dear Jerry,
I am just interested in what you, (and your readers,)
think about this one. I just sat there and blinked my eyes.
World must plan for climate emergency: report
http://www.reuters.com/article/
GCA-GreenBusiness/idUSTRE5803QP20090901
r,
We are government scientists and we know better
than you. And we're here to help you.
==========
Regarding the Surface area required to power the
whole world by solar power
I took a look at the Solar Energy map at http://imgur.com/j9wrB.jpg
<http://imgur.com/j9wrB.jpg>
And I have to wonder if this takes into account losses in transmission. 50%+
of all power generated in the US is lost in transmission (I don't have
backup on this, but I remember it from a chart I saw at Chaos Manor a year
or so ago); though an increase to take this into account would still be
impressive. Note that it would be even more impressive if you charted the
surface area required for either nuclear or orbital microwave.
Glad to hear you are doing well!
Christopher Mazuk Picture (Metafile)
I assume it's back of the envelope calculations.
Were I to do the same for, say, nuclear waste storage site requirements
I'd get much smaller areas, of course. Assume we're stacking the stuff in
deserts and surrounding it with a chain link fence and a death's-head
warning sign...
=========
Telegraph story on power rationing planned in the UK
These reports are often trial balloons to see what
Whitehall can get away with <http://preview.tinyurl.com/nfjlxd>
. It is good to remember that the UK civil service has very high
self-regard.
Taxes up <http://preview.tinyurl.com/m2v3yw>
-- Harry Erwin
============
"The pieces came together to make me think that gas
drag was a good explanation for what was going on."
<http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32643427/
ns/technology_and_science-space/>
--- Roland Dobbins
We are just learning about interstellar wind.
Which may affect climate...
For a PDF copy of A Step Farther Out:
TOP
CURRENT
VIEW Tuesday |
