| Sunday, October
26, 2008
Spending Stalls and Businesses Slash U.S. Jobs -
NYTimes.com
Dear Jerry,
1. Domestic
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/26/business/
26layoffs.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
"The steel mills, big suppliers to many sectors of the
economy, are shutting 17 of the nation’s 29 blast furnaces — a startling
indicator of how quickly output is declining as corporate America struggles
to adjust to the spreading crisis."
Roughly 50% of the 100 million annual tons of US
domestic steel capacity is through these 29 blast furnaces. The other 50% is
scrap steel remelted in electric arc furnaces. Therefore somewhere between
from 15 to 20 million tons capacity is being taken off line. And this
optimistic estimate assumes the smallest blast furnaces are being idled, not
the largest ones.
We are therefore looking at a current 20% decline in
domestic manufacturing activity.
2. International
http://tinyurl.com/5btrw5
"Europe on the brink of currency crisis meltdown by
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard" (The Telegraph)
"The latest data from the Bank for International
Settlements shows that Western European banks hold almost all the exposure
to the emerging market bubble, now busting with spectacular effect. They
account for three-quarters of the total $4.7 trillion £2.96 trillion) in
cross-border bank loans to Eastern Europe, Latin America and emerging Asia
extended during the global credit boom – a sum that vastly exceeds the scale
of both the US sub-prime and Alt-A debacles."
If any part of that paragraph is true it's not
possible to assign limits to what will happen. One revelation at the time of
the AIG collapse is that European commercial banks use much more leverage
than American commercial banks. In terms of capital ratios they were more
similar to the now failed Wall Street investment banks.
"Austria’s bank exposure to emerging markets is equal
to 85pc of GDP – with a heavy concentration in Hungary, Ukraine, and Serbia
– all now queuing up (with Belarus) for rescue packages from the
International Monetary Fund. Exposure is 50pc of GDP for Switzerland, 25pc
for Sweden, 24pc for the UK, and 23pc for Spain. The US figure is just 4pc.
America is the staid old lady in this drama. Amazingly, Spanish banks alone
have lent $316bn to Latin America, almost twice the lending by all US banks
combined ($172bn) to what was once the US backyard."
That "staid old lady" US 4% refers to percentage of
annual GDP. That means 4% of a $13 trillion GDP, or $500 billion. Losses
presumably won't be 100%, so only a large fraction of $500 billion needs to
be added to US financial institutions' other current capital losses.
Best Wishes,
Mark
=============
After doing away with guns they will have to do away
with hands
South Africa in grip of strangulation spate
Murder of women by strangulation is a serious problem
in South Africa. Researchers writing in the open access journal BMC Public
Health compared four South African cities for the period 2001 to 2005, and
report information about the prevalence and timing of attacks, and give
details about the victims.
Most cases of strangulation are committed by men
against women, as it requires a large disparity in strength between attacker
and victim. According to the authors of the study, Shahnaaz Suffla, Ashley
van Niekerk and Najuwa Arendse of the South African Medical Research Council
and University of South Africa, "Gender-based violence persists as a global
problem. In the year 2000, there were an estimated 119,000 female homicides
worldwide and South Africa is estimated to have the highest rate of intimate
female homicide in the world, despite its democratic transformation, strong
emerging economy and widespread structural and social improvements".
The authors found that most cases of strangulation
occurred early in the morning and that, while most victims had drunk no
alcohol, drinking more than the legal limit was associated with a higher
occurrence than drinking in moderation. In all of the cities studied, most
strangulations occurred in the home. The authors said, "The strangulation
rates we found are likely to be high relative to those of other African
countries, where the overall homicide rate is up to 30% lower than in South
Africa".
While strangulation rates declined over the five years
studied in Pretoria, Johannesburg and Durban, they increased in Cape Town.
The Western Cape Province, of which Cape Town is the capital and largest
metropolitan centre, also reported the highest number of reported cases of
rape during this period. According to Suffla and her co-authors, "This
supports the proposed link between sexual violence and female
strangulation".
Citation: Female homicidal strangulation in urban
South Africa, Shahnaaz Suffla, Ashley Van Niekerk and Najuwa Arendse, BMC
Public Health (in press)
http://www.biomedcentral.com/bmcpublichealth/
Source: BioMed Central
http://www.physorg.com/news143787118.html
J
We need brick and knife control, too.
===========
One-third of Swedes want to live in gated
communities: study
Two stories of note from Sweden.
====
One-third of Swedes want to live in gated
communities: study One in three Swedes wants to live in a gated community
which prohibits unauthorized people from entering, a new study shows.
Most interested in the security provided by such
living situations are young singles, of which 41 percent reported wanting to
live someplace surrounded by fences or requiring a door code for entry.
Meanwhile, only 26 percent of families with small
children said they desired the additional security measures.
The study also reported that less than one fourth of
the survey’s respondents – 23 percent – want to live in areas which feature
cultural, ethnic, and social diversity.
The results come from a report entitled BoTrender 08
(‘Living Tends ’08’) carried out by the Tyréns Temaplan consulting company
and based on responses gathered in August from 5,000 Swedes aged 18- to
70-years-old who live in apartments or are considering living in apartments
in the future.
“I don’t think that those who answered the study were
thinking of barbed wire, high walls, and guards, but rather a more secluded
area with checks on who enters,” said Tyréns Temaplan’s Mia Wahlström to the
Svenska Dadbladet newspaper.
Göran Cars, a professor of urban studies at the Royal
Institute of Technology (KTH), said the study shows people place a high
value on safety and security when it comes to where they live, but expresses
his reservations about what a proliferation of gated communities might mean
for Sweden.
“I would consider it deeply tragic of there was a
propagation of gated communities. That would mean my city would lose some of
its appeal; its diversity of people and activities. The city’s services
would become impoverished and it would lose its international
competitiveness,” he told SvD.
Pointing to trends in the United States, a country in
which gated communities have become increasingly popular, Cars added that
the trend can actually result in public places becoming less safe.
He believes that society has a choice to make when it
comes to dealing with rising rates of crime and violence.
“On the one hand, we can accept the increase violence
and insecurity. Then everyone who can afford to will choose to live in
protected area. On the other hand, we can vigorously combat the violence and
abuse which damages our security and safety by giving police and social
services more resources,” he said.
:
http://www.thelocal.se/15200/20081024/
= = = = =
Swedes cool towards ethnic diversity Greater numbers
of Swedes are expressing hostility towards ethnic diversity, according to a
new study.
According to the annual diversity barometer carried
out by researchers at Uppsala University, the percentage of the Swedish
population with extremely negative attitudes toward ethnic diversity has
increased by 50 percent since 2005.
“The extremely negative attitudes are increasing, and
we believe it’s in line with what’s happening in Europe. It’s not only
older, but also younger who are negative,” said Orlando Mella, a sociology
professor from Uppsala University, to the Dagens Nyheter (DN) newspaper.
However, Mella added that in comparison to the rest of
Europe, Sweden is generally quite positive toward diversity.
Overall, 5.7 percent of the population in Sweden
indicated they have extremely negative attitudes toward diversity, up from
3.8 percent in 2005.
Among men, the instance of negative attitudes has
increased from 5.3 to 7.5 percent since 2005.
Unexpectedly, however, the prevalence of negative
attitudes toward ethnic diversity among Swedish women has nearly doubled
from 2.3 percent to 4.1 percent.
“It’s surprising for us that there are more women in
the group [expressing negative attitudes]; that’s not something we expected.
Swedish women tend to be quite positive toward diversity,” said Mella.
Despite the growth of unfavourable views towards
diversity in Sweden, Mella believes the country is better equipped to
integrate immigrant groups than other European countries and that public
perceptions of social exclusion among immigrants in Sweden is exaggerated.
“The large number of immigrants are on the way to or
currently are being integrated,” she said.
Nevertheless, Mella said that continued growth in the
number of Swedes expressing hostility toward ethnic diversity has the
potential to affect Swedes’ attitudes more widely, noting that rising
unemployment presents a challenge for politicians.
“But we should remember that there aren’t deep ethnic
conflicts in Sweden like there are in France or Great Britain,” she said.
http://www.thelocal.se/15198/20081024/
= = = =
P
A generation ago no one in Sweden wanted to live in
a gated community, and even the Prime Minister lived in an apartment
downtown. The Royal Family was somewhat protected but not excessively so.
=========
Kindle on Oprah
Maybe this will give the Kindle the boost is needs to
get into the mainstream! My wife is talking about wanting a Kindle for
Christmas. You have to understand that my wife is very much a paper person.
We have bookshelves all over the house that are full of books. she has an
entire 6 foot high bookshelf that is full of books she hasn't read yet. And
yet, she is feeling that she would enjoy a Kindle.
Some articles:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/10/24/oprah_kindle/
http://www.informationweek.com/news/
hardware/handheld/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=211600532
Glenn Hunt
============
The Commissars Of Climate Change
"It's not just income taxes that might trash the
dreams of Joe the Plumber."
http://www.forbes.com/2008/10/22/
climate-united-nations-oped-cx_cr_1023rosett_print.html
-Joe
===========
your reply to
Mr. Ludwick Thursday October 23rd
This subject is not new, by any means. If you have not
yet found the meaning of the words “Three Conjectures” in this context then
I recommend that you do a search for that phrase.
By the way, good luck getting that novel published.
I can see three possible outcomes to this problem,
none of them good. The first is that the West continues to sleep until the
followers of Mohammed (hellfire and eternal damnation be upon him) win –
either by violence or simply out-breeding the free peoples of the world.
This way lies the end of civilisation, with no way back, and the possible
extinction of humanity. Why? Because we NEED the resources of space, and the
global Caliphate will not have the physical or intellectual resources to go
and get them.
Second path; we wake up while there is still time, and
do the things necessary; which include expelling and/or banning the practice
of Islam and all its adherents from any Western country, particularly the
USA, and also making a real effort to get independent of the Arab Middle
East so as to avoid giving money to those who want to kill us. In other
words, starve the SOBs to death.
The third way is almost as bad as the first. It
depends to some extent on the actions of the enemy, and involves us
continuing to sleep until some jihadi lunatic obtains and uses a WMD,
possibly nuclear, somewhere in the West – and us invoking the logic of the
Three Conjectures and finishing the job started by Charles Martel. This
involves approximately a billion deaths, several tens of megatons at the
very least and quite a lot of fallout; and at the end of it Islam will be an
unpleasant memory and the Middle East will be a graveyard dotted with a
couple of dozen circles of glass that glow in the dark. And it also involves
irreparable harm to the concept and the soul of the free West; unlike the
enemy, we have a conscience.
I prefer the second alternative, but would settle for
the third. Anything is better than the first.
Regards
Ian Campbell
================w
f
g
For platinum subscription:
TOP
CURRENT
VIEW Sunday
The
current page will always have the name currentmail.html and may be
bookmarked. For
previous weeks, go to the MAIL HOME PAGE.
FOR THE CURRENT
VIEW PAGE CLICK HERE
If you are not paying for this place, click here...
IF YOU SEND MAIL it may be published; if you want it private
SAY SO AT THE TOP of the
mail. I try to respect confidences, but there is only me, and this is Chaos Manor. If you
want a mail address other than the one from which you sent the mail to appear, PUT THAT AT
THE END OF THE LETTER as a signature. In general, put the name you want at
the end of the letter: if you put no address there none will be posted, but
I do want some kind of name, or explicitly to say (name withheld). Note
that if you don't put a name in the bottom of the letter I have to get one
from the header. This takes time I don't have, and may end up with a name
and address
you didn't want on the letter. Do us both a favor: sign your letters to me
with the name and address (or no address) as you want them posted. Also,
repeat the subject as the first line of the mail. That also saves me time.
I try to answer mail, but mostly I can't get to all of it. I read it all, although not
always the instant it comes in. I do have books to write too... I am reminded of H.
P. Lovecraft who slowly starved to death while answering fan mail.
- Day-by-day...
- Monday -- Tuesday -- Wednesday
-- Thursday -- Friday -- Saturday
-- Sunday
-
-
Search engine:
or the freefind search
Boiler Plate:
If you want to PAY FOR THIS
PLACE I keep the latest information
HERE.
MY
THANKS to all of you who sent money. Some of you went to a lot of
trouble to send money from overseas. Thank you! There are also some new payment methods. I am preparing a special (electronic)
mailing to all those who paid: there will be a couple of these. I have
thought about a subscriber section of the page. LET ME KNOW your thoughts.
.
If you subscribed:
CLICK HERE for
a Special Request.
If you didn't and haven't, why not?
If this seems a lot about paying think of it as the Subscription Drive
Nag. You'll see more.
Search: type in string
and press return.
For platinum subscription:
For a PDF copy of A Step Farther Out:
Strategy of Technology in pdf format:
To order the nose pump I recommend, click on the banner
below:
Entire Site Copyright, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003,
2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 by Jerry
E. Pournelle. All rights reserved. |
