| Friday,
January 11, 2008 "He was beaten to death
for doing something which is becoming more and more common and which was a
way to expose law-enforcement officers who keep on overstepping their
limits."
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/
asiapcf/01/11/china.blogger/index.html
-- Roland Dobbins
The end of history?
=========
Heading for 3rd-world status
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/11/us/
11control.html?_r=2&ref=us&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
<snip>
California Seeks Thermostat Control
Next year in California, state regulators are
likely to have the emergency power to control individual thermostats,
sending temperatures up or down through a radio-controlled device that
will be required in new or substantially modified houses and buildings
to manage electricity shortages.
The proposed rules are contained in a document
circulated by the California Energy Commission, which for more than
three decades has set state energy efficiency standards for home
appliances, like water heaters, air conditioners and refrigerators. The
changes would allow utilities to adjust customers’ preset temperatures
when the price of electricity is soaring. Customers could override the
utilities’ suggested temperatures. But in emergencies, the utilities
could override customers’ wishes.
</snip>
There was a time when we sold electricity to Canada
and Mexico. I guess those days are long dead and won't be back any time
soon. Why are they trying to control our thermostats when they should be
providing incentives to build more power plants? Could it be something as
simple as the knowledge that shortages allow for more government control?
There was a time when government trusted its citizens. Jerry, please tell me
again how the U.S. won the Cold War in order to save us from an
over-powerful and controlling government?
Braxton S. Cook
=========
Subject: Russian forces in Korean
War
Doctor P,
This is fascinating, and perhaps of particular
interest to yourself:
http://www.koreacoldwar.org/news/usrarcconfblasser.html
"First, by way of introduction, I would like to
talk a little about Soviet involvement during the Korean War. During the
war, it was well known that Soviets served as ground force advisor's to
North Korean and Communist Chinese units and flew fighter sorties under
the guise of being volunteers with the North Korean and Communist
Chinese Air Forces.
The first unit to engage the United Nations was
the 151st Fighter Aviation Division in early November 1950. Shortly
afterwards, the Soviets activated the 64th Fighter Aviation Corps to
engage the United Nations in Korea. During the next two and a half
years, a total of 12 Fighter Aviation Divisions comprised of 34 Fighter
Aviation Regiments, two independent Fighter Aviation Regiments, four
Anti-aircraft Artillery Divisions comprised of ten Anti-aircraft
Artillery Regiments, two Aviation technical Divisions, two Anti-aircraft
Artillery Searchlight regiments, and a host of support units rotated
through the 64th Fighter Aviation Corps.
General Georgij Lobov, one of the three war-time
commanders of the 64th, wrote in an article that the total number of
Soviets involved in the Korean War over its duration was approximately
70,000 with peak strength of 26,000. The Soviets flew roughly 74% of all
communist combat sorties during the Korean War."
That's right, SEVENTY-FOUR percent. No wonder
MacArthur wanted to bomb those airfields!
Petronius
==========
more sad but true bureaucratism in the UK
For Chaos Manor
Dr. Pournelle –
At first, I thought it was a prank, but it’s true.
From: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/6234290.stm <http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/6234290.stm>
: Kilt wearers could face prosecution if they do not have a license for
their sporran under new legislation which has been introduced in Scotland.
Is it funny or sad when legislation such as this comes
from real life, and not from a Monty Python skit?
Henry Wyckoff
==========
Subject: Inertial confinement fusion
Jerry,
Speaking of fusion, today I got to go on a tour of the
National Ignition Facility at Livermore. That is one BIG laser system; the
building is the size of 3 football fields, the whole thing cost $3.5B, and
amazingly the whole scheme started with one tiny fiber laser that is
amplified, and amplified, etc.
They seem confident that they will get "scientific
break even", which means they'll get the target to fuse and produce more
energy than is put on the target by the laser. That is NOT energy break
even, because the the laser system is very inefficient, so they are perhaps
at 1% of or less of the energy gain needed for energy break even. However,
as the director talked, he noted several trivial improvements that can get
them to 10% (use 70% efficient diodes as optical pumps instead of 10% flash
lamps, etc). Getting to within a factor of 10 of energy break even is a big
step.
I came away impressed. They have a very good
engineering approach to building this thing, with a lot of attention to
extreme reliability, and they answered honestly some fairly pointed
questions. This is still a long way from anything like a powerplant, but it
was encouraging to see this.
Chuck
That's sort of where we were a decade ago. I
am not sure why fusion research doesn't seem to be going anywhere. What I do
know is that fission works, and we know how to build good and safe reactors.
For the wag who sent me the query "Do you
still support nuclear power after Chernobyl and Three Mile Island?" the
answer is yes. Chernobyl wasn't a power reactor and employs a positive void
design that is illegal in the United States: Teller himself had it written
into public law that no such reactor can be licensed here. TMI was an
unplanned (and unwanted) experiment in safety. It was a very costly
experiment, but it showed clearly t that in a worst case accident no one off
site would be injured. No one off site was injured.
========
Britain backs new nuclear power plants
Something New:
The British government on Thursday approved
construction of the first new nuclear power plants in a generation, saying
atomic energy could help fight climate change and secure the country's
energy supplies in an increasingly unstable world.|
And Something Old: " "Britain joins a growing list of
countries rethinking the long-unpopular nuclear option, driven by global
warming, geopolitical uncertainty and rising fuel prices. Environmentalists,
however, condemned the move as an expensive and dangerous folly that would
divert resources from the search for genuinely clean forms of energy."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080110/ap_on_re_eu/britain_nuclear_energy.
Plus ca change, plus ca meme chose!
Petronius
=========
Most of your regular readers are
crazy
"We can all agree that the modern world is in a
confrontation with fundamentalist Islam."
Which is mainly taking the form of low-level guerrilla
war against our unprovoked invasion of Iraq. A friend put it exactly: as a
strategic struggle, the War on terror wouldn't even make a pimple on the
butt of the Cold War.
These people are crazy, Jerry. I keeping hearing about
threats that don't exist or that are exaggerated by factors of thousands.
And, by the way, those numbers I mentioned early are correct: piracy is
insignificant. So much so that the shippers can hardly be made to give a
shit about it. And as for the idea that we have to worry a lot about Chinese
piracy - am I to think that their government is going to let someone piss in
the gravy? I think not.
You know, I'm gravitating to the notion that nearly
everyone is crazy. It has explanatory power. Now I just have to figure out
how to make money out of it. Should be a snap.
Gregory Cochran
Everyone in the world is mad
except for thee and me, and sometimes thou art a bit queer...
I for one do not find the riots in France
and the home invasions in England to be insignificant. I understand the
point that most of it is their fault; but what of that? The fact is that
until one recognizes an enemy is an enemy, you will not prevail.
I do not think the destruction of western
values is really a move toward world civilization or US security. I do not
think the slow spiral of Europe into the muck would be a good thing for the
United States.
Now true: one should order one's
priorities. The physical invasion of the US by millions of illegal aliens is
probably the main threat to the continuity of American civilization. That
does not mean that the confrontation between Western Civilization and the
Muslim world is trivial. It is a cultural war, mostly, and yes, it would be
easy to get out of with victory; but the fact that we do not is a data point
you seem to ignore.
We live in the world we live in. Western
values are corroding and vanishing. As Chesterton noted, when a man ceased
to believe in God he doesn't turn to nothing; he will believe in almost
anything, and usually does. The same is true regarding rejection of one's
civilization. Liberalism has rejected the defense of Western values, largely
by accusing the West of hypocrisy if it dares defend itself.
Perhaps, Scaramouch, you will become
wealthy having been born with the gift of laughter and a sense that the
world is mad; but I wouldn't bet on it. The next step is to assume that
since all your fellow citizens are mad, they are fair game, and it is
ethical to victimize them. This is known as perverting one's gifts -- in
your case a very superior intellect. Fortunately you haven't got there yet.
I've already said what I would do as
Emperor: Secure the borders, stop intervening in territorial disputes of
European and Asian nations, find an honorable way out of our overseas wars
that doesn't leave us as dishonorable wretches whose friendship inevitably
leads to death, and do what it takes to secure energy independence,
preferably in a way that makes oil cheap worldwide so that sitting on pools
of it doesn't confer great wealth.
I doubt that's much different from what
you'd do. The difference is that I see we're not doing that no matter that
my advice is good and the nation and world would be better off it it were
implemented; but I don't merely step back and say, well, they're all mad, so
it's not my business any longer.
=========
Reviews
Dear Jerry:
The filter on hardbounds for reviewers existed when I
was doing all those reviews for the Los Angeles Daily News. (1) We got
thousands of books and I personally got hundreds, but no publisher ever sent
a trade paperback because that was normally a secondary edition, not a
first. It has to be a new book to even be considered for a review because if
it's not new, it's not "news" either.
The recent advent of Print on Demand has changed that
a little bit, but old habits die hard and every reviewer gets an order of
magnitude more of review copies than there is time and space to review. The
big dogs have the advantage here; big name author, big publisher....hard to
resist because reviewers are only human and want to read the latest best
seller too. (2) all the Print on Demand publishers (meaning those with
actual plants) provide economical hardbound options and you can roll out
multiple editions at different prices for different markets. Especially if
you don't figure to make the cut from brick and mortar bookstores. Those
houses that provide only trade paperbacks are for folks that don't figure to
get many reviews anyway. (3) there are all sorts of instances where the
above is wrong.
Finally, the regular paid book review is rapidly
disappearing and this has been a subject of much discussion and not a little
hand wringing in the journalistic community. Authors are required these days
to be their own publicists, which is hard to do and takes you away from the
core mission of writing more books. Added to that is the growing number of
people who don't read and are proud of it.
Sincerely,
Francis Hamit
=========
Subject: E-book reviews
Dear Jerry:
A follow up on review copies which you can add to that
last I sent.
The only way to get e-books reviewed is to provide a
paper copy that is bound. I did this with "The Shenandoah Spy" and have
gotten a few reviews. The logic is unassailable here; if you are a reviewer,
which book are you going to review? The one that requires you to download it
and squint at a computer screen for hours on end, or has to be printed out,
or the one that is printed and bound like any other book? E-book products,
in my experience, have not sold well because they require extra effort on
the part of consumers that few are willing to make just to satisfy an
impulse. Zipf's Principle of Least Effort says that people will buy
something they are looking for at the first place they find it. That need
has to be measured against the costs of acquisition and the more trouble
that is, the more likely the customer is to move on and look elsewhere.
Sincerely,
Francis Hamit
Thanks. I will add that to
your epublishing page in
Reports.
=========
Subject:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/CRIME/01/11/
jones.doping/?iref=mpstoryview
<snip>
Track star Marion Jones sentenced to 6 months
Olympic track star Marion Jones was sentenced in a
federal court Friday to six months in prison, two years of probation and
community service for lying to federal prosecutors investigating the use
of performance-enhancing substances.
</snip>
Yet another wonderful example of why a person should
never answer questions from any official. The prosecutor and judge did what
any bureaucrat would do, they milked it for all it was worth and sent this
"horrible" person to prison. I used to be proud of our justice system and
this country. What a crock of horse-hooey.
Braxton S. Cook
Let me emphasize again: never
talk to any bureaucrat on or off the record without paying not only a lot of
attention to what you are saying, but in the context that this is an enemy
who is seeking to advance his career by jailing you. Alas, that applies to
the FBI Agent investigating a real crime: cooperation with them can lead to
disaster. I wish that were not true.
There was a time when the police always
assumed you were inaccurate, and the only time the perjury laws applied was
when you were warned that you testified under penalty of perjury. You are
not under penalty of perjury in a casual conversation with your friendly
neighborhood government employee of any stripe.
Martha Stewart was jailed for denying that
she did something that wasn't a crime had she done it. I could add many
examples.
The judge in the Marion Jones case says he
has imposed the maximum to "send a message." Think about the implications of
being used as a horrible example to send a message.
========
Enbrel.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article
-23431610-details/
Drug%20'can%20reverse%20Alzheimer's%20symptoms
%20in%20minutes'/article.do
A drug used for arthritis can reverse the
symptoms of Alzheimer's "in minutes".
It appears to tackle one of the main
features of the disease - inflammation in the brain.
The drug, called Enbrel, is injected into
the spine where it blocks a chemical responsible for damaging the brain
and other organs.
A pilot study carried out by U.S.
researchers found one patient had his symptoms reversed "in minutes".
Other patients have shown some improvements
in symptoms such as forgetfulness and confusion after weekly injections
over six months.
-- Roland Dobbins
=========
Asteroid to miss
Mars; Gates donates to search for Near Earth Objects
NEO News (01/11/08) Mars safe & funds for LSST
NO BIG BANG: ASTEROID WILL MISS MARS
PASADENA, Calif. (AP) - The possibility of a collision
between Mars and an approaching asteroid has been effectively ruled out,
according to scientists watching the space rock as it nears the Red Planet.
Tracking measurements of asteroid 2007 WD5 from four
observatories have so greatly reduced uncertainties about its Jan. 30 close
approach to Mars that the odds of an impact have dropped to 1 in 10,000, the
Near-Earth Object Program at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory said in a
posting on its Web site Thursday. Scientists said the best estimate was for
the asteroid to pass at a distance of more than 16,000 miles from the
surface of Mars, or at worst, no closer than 2,480 miles.
The asteroid was discovered in November. Initial
observations of its orbit raised the odds of an impact to as high as 1 in 25
before further refinements came in. The asteroid is big enough to have
blasted a half-mile-wide crater in the cold and dusty Martian surface, an
event that astronomers would have liked to observe.
The NEO program normally looks for asteroids and
comets that could pose a hazard to Earth.
======================================
PHILANTHROPY SUPPORTS TELESCOPE EARLY WARNING OF
ASTEROID COLLISION WITH EARTH 6 January 2008
Billionaire Bill Gates and former Microsoft colleague
Charles Simonyi donate $30 million for telescope that can provide early
warning of asteroid collision with Earth.
In the daytime the view from Cerro Pachon, a rocky,
desolate peak high above Chile, offers a breathtaking vista of the Andes.
Mountains of rock topped with snow and glaciers seem to touch the heavens.
Come nightfall, the Andes disappear into gloom and then the real show
begins. As if someone had flicked a switch, the gleam of millions of planets
and stars studs the inky blackness overhead. The sky seems too immense to
absorb, even for giant telescopes. They focus on one tiny portion at a time,
pinpricks in the cosmos, because traditionally astronomers like to dwell on
detail.
Not any more. Cerro Pachon is to host the Large
Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST), a near $400 million (£203 million) project
that will survey the entire sky several times a week - something never done
before. Every 15 seconds it will take an image seven times the diameter of
the moon, adding up, every three days, to a full panorama of the heavens.
Boasting 3,200 megapixels, it will be the world's biggest digital camera.
"Most telescopes look at a tiny part of the sky, to
look deep and in detail. We want to look broadly, to cover everything,"
Victor Krabbendam, the deputy project manager, said Friday.
This week the telescope took a step closer to reality
after donations from two geeky philanthropic billionaires who are entranced
by the technology and its possibilities.
Bill Gates gave $10 million from his private fortune
and a former Microsoft colleague, Charles Simonyi, gave $20 million through
his Fund for Arts and Sciences. Gates, one of the world's richest men, said
the telescope would turn astronomy into a software issue by writing code and
database queries to mine the night sky and recover its secrets.
"LSST is truly an internet telescope which will put
terabytes of data each night into the hands of anyone that wants to explore
it. [It is] a shared resource for all humanity - the ultimate network
peripheral device to explore the universe," he said.
The donations will keep on track the construction of
three large mirrors and three refractive lenses which are the most important
and expensive part of the machine.
The first stages of production for the two largest
mirrors are under way at the Mirror Laboratory at the University of Arizona.
Launched in 2000, the project is a partnership based in Tucson, Arizona, and
split among 23 universities, laboratories and private entities. Once the
mirrors are ready they will be hauled up the 2,690-meter peak and installed
in a dome due for construction in 2011. "First light", as astronomers call
their scoping, should begin four years later.
The camera is expected to take more than 200,000
pictures. Processing that information is expected to be the most technically
difficult part of the project.
The camera's 15 second exposure should be long enough
to record images of even very faint objects such as asteroids and so-called
near-Earth objects. By monitoring them night after night, it should be
possible to infer their orbit around the sun and hence how likely they are
to slam into Earth.
That is how the project's director sold the LSST to
congressmen in November. "The ability to detect virtually every potentially
hazardous near-Earth object and determine its orbit with precision
transforms that statistical threat into a deterministic prediction," said
Anthony Tyson, at the University of California, Davis.
It will also be useful for basic science. Its
time-lapse images can be used to create 3D maps of the mass distribution in
the universe. That should not only help to trace billions of galaxies, but
also tell cosmologists more about the mysterious and recently discovered
"dark energy" that is driving the expansion of the universe.
Every night the telescope will pull in 30 terabytes of
image data (about 190 times more than a top of the range iPod) which will be
made available free on the internet. "People can find out what's going on
everywhere in the sky, and no one has ever done that before - not even come
close," said Donald Sweeney, the project manager. "There are lots of things
that happen every night in the sky, and no one has been able to track them
and detect them."
Cerro Pachon, located in northern Chile near the city
of Vicuña, is a foothill of the Andes but high enough to escape haze and
light pollution. It was chosen over a site in Mexico because it hosts two
other large telescopes known as Gemini South and SOAR, delivering a
ready-made astronomy infrastructure.
"It's very beautiful up there, very rocky and quiet.
You can see glaciers in the distance," said Krabbendam.
This week's donations would keep the project on
schedule by enabling the early fabrication of large optics and other
long-lead components of the telescope system, said Sweeney.
When working together at Microsoft, Gates and Simonyi
became fascinated with stretching software and the internet's possibilities.
Simonyi, estimated to be worth $1 billion, is also obsessed by space. Last
year be became the fifth space tourist and the second Hungarian in space.
"There is a similarity between the telescope and these
two guys," said Suzanne Jacoby, a project spokesperson. "It's very
innovative and the technology is very cool. It appeals to technologically
minded people."
-- +++++++++
NEO News (now in its fifteenth year of distribution)
is an informal compilation of news and opinion dealing with Near Earth
Objects (NEOs) and their impacts. These opinions are the responsibility of
the individual authors and do not represent the positions of NASA, Ames
Research Center, the International Astronomical Union, or any other
organization. To subscribe (or unsubscribe) contact dmorrison@arc.nasa.gov.
For additional information, please see the website http://impact.arc.nasa.gov.
If anyone wishes to copy or redistribute original material from these notes,
fully or in part, please include this disclaimer.
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