| Saturday,
April 28, 2007 I will probably repeat this
Monday:
Jerry.
COL North's essay on the consequences of the
Reid-Pelosi Strategy:
http://www.townhall.com/Columnists/OliverNorth/
2007/04/27/americans_now_love_losers_im_not_buying_it
<LARGE snip, but I cannot see how to soft pedal this
conclusion>
...classified U.S. intelligence
assessments, military contingency plans and staff studies evaluating the
consequences of a precipitous U.S. withdrawal from Iraq, coupled with
the lack of funding for political reform measures, as contained in the
legislation just passed by Reid's party, paint a far more dismal picture
than anything that happened after Vietnam.
-- Within months, an immediate upsurge in
vicious sectarian violence fomented by Iranian intervention on behalf of
Shiite militias and Wahabbi-supported, Al Qaeda-affiliated terror
groups. As U.S. forces retreat to a half-dozen staging areas for
retrograde through Kuwait and Jordan, American casualties will
dramatically increase as suicide bombers seek "martyrdom" in their
victory.
-- Inside of 18 months, the fragile
democratically elected government in Baghdad will collapse,
precipitating a real sectarian civil war and the creation of
Taliban-like "regional governments" that will impose brutal,
misogynistic rule throughout the country. The ensuing flood of refuges
into Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Turkey and Iran will overwhelm
relief organizations, creating a humanitarian disaster making what's
happening in Darfur pale by comparison.
-- The Kurds in northern Iraq are likely to
declare an autonomous region that could well result in Turkish, Iranian
and even Syrian military intervention.
-- In the course of withdrawing U.S. combat
brigades and support units, billions of dollars in American military
equipment and ordnance will have to be destroyed or left behind. More
than $40 billion in reconstruction projects for schools, health-care
facilities, sanitation, clean water, electrical distribution and
agricultural development will be abandoned. Plans to exploit the new
West Qurna oil field in southeastern Iraq will be forsaken.
-- The governments of Kuwait, Jordan, Abu
Dhabi and Bahrain, intimidated by Iranian boldness in acquiring nuclear
weapons, will likely insist on the withdrawal of American military bases
from their territories. Such a move will jeopardize U.S. naval
operations in the Persian Gulf and logistics, intelligence collection
and command and control facilities supporting operations in Afghanistan.
-- As Iraq becomes a battleground for the
centuries-long Sunni-Shia conflict, radical Islamic terror organizations
will use the territories they control to prepare and launch increasingly
deadly terror attacks around the globe against U.S. citizens, businesses
and interests.
Reid and his cohorts in Congress who believe "this war
is lost" have acted to ensure that it will be. No one asked them: "If we
lost, who won?" The answer should be obvious.
Respectfully,
J.
Of course this was my fear before we ever went in there. I am told that
several retired 4-stars declined the job of warlord in Mesopotamia.
The costs of staying in are large, but perhaps not in comparison with the
costs of leaving. What we must not do is lose it and stay in; and any
admission that we will, sometime in the near future, cut and run is a loss.
If we are getting out, then best we just get out. If we are staying in, we
need to start recruiting constabularies to supplement the US Army.
Three brigades of MP's would be a good start. It will be expensive, but
all our choices are expensive.
Name the likely problem that costs us more than ~100
billion a year. Because if there isn't any, leaving puts us in the black. I
might also point out that although it's hard to put a dollar cost on
alienating the entire world, including those who could be our friends, the
cost is substantial. We're convincing the average person in places like
Great Britain and Germany and Australia - people who are _not_ on the hard
left - that we're just nuts. I wouldn't want to take on the job of arguing
that we're not.
Mostly pulling out is _admitting_ that the war was an
unmitigated disaster: the threat is to reputations of the fools who cooked
up and/or endorsed this, not to the interests of the country.
And we're going to pull out, never doubt it. The
choice is between pulling out rapidly and pulling out slowly: the second
path has far _more_ potential for disaster. Of course that's probably what
we will do.
Gregory Cochran
Subject: Ollie North
Nobody ever said Ollie was _smart_. Look, has he ever
managed to figure out what was going to happen next in Iraq? I have: he
hasn't.
As for casualties going up as we leave, what a joke.
Here's what you do: you build up some extra gas and ammo reserves - which is
easy - and you form up a convoy escorted by armor and get the hell out. Oh,
and secure a few key bridges first. That's it: it's Interstate-quality
driving all the way to Kuwait. With the Air Force overhead and hundreds of
tanks, how is anyone supposed to give us trouble? I guarantee we'll lose
fewer getting out than we did fighting our way in - and that was less than
we lose in two months of occupation.
As for leaving equipment behind, well, we'll take
armor and valuable spares with us and blow up everything else. I kept
telling people who talked of ' permanent bases' that there is no such thing.
As for the money we spent on various improvements in Iraq - not much got
done of course, and what got finished and hasn't already been ruined by
incompetence is still there for the Iraqis if they want it. Did we expect to
take the sewage plants home with us?
As for oil fields in Iraq, they'll eventually be
exploited, never fear. Does Ollie think that we have to put a gun to the
heads of the Arabs to make them sell their oil?
As for trouble between the Kurds and Turkey: I'll give
you odds that the Turks will explain exactly what the situation is to the
Kurds - with a baseball bat - and then the Kurds will refrain from causing
trouble.
This country existed for a couple of hundred years
without running Mesopotamia and it did just fine.
Gregory Cochran
All of which needs thinking about.
Like I said.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/29/world/
middleeast/29reconstruct.html?ex=
1335499200&en=ce6e85d50e90583e&ei
=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss
Rebuilt Iraq Projects Found Crumbling
By JAMES GLANZ Published: April 29, 2007 In
a troubling sign for the American-financed rebuilding program in Iraq,
inspectors for a federal oversight agency have found that in a sampling
of eight projects that the United States had declared successes, seven
were no longer operating as designed because of plumbing and electrical
failures, lack of proper maintenance, apparent looting and expensive
equipment that lay idle
Gregory Cochran
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