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THE VIEW FROM CHAOS MANOR

View 201 April 15 - 21, 2002

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Monday  April 15, 2002

Congratulations. You get to pay, but you are not yet working for yourself. Everything you have earned from the beginning of the year and on another month belongs to the government. Have a nice day.

I am putting this up Sunday night because Monday AM I am to be on an airplane headed for WinHEC in Seattle. I'll see what I can do from there.

I have also put up Monday mail, but there was a lot the previous Week including yesterday (Sunday).

 

 

 

 

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Tuesday, April 16, 2002

Alas poor WinHEC. I knew him, Alex

We have had 4 hours of presentation with perhaps half an hour of actual content. The rest was marketing blather. It didn't used to be that way. As Richard Doherty of the Envisioneering group http://www.envisioneering.net just observed to me, since there is no Q&A any more (there used to be at every session) why are we not watching this at home on a media presentation?

Of course the answer to that is that we can talk to each other: Richard, and Peter Glaskowsky, and Alex, and others: we can get together and discuss what Microsoft carefully didn't talk about and that is significant. But this is a shadow of previous WinHEC conferences.

No press lunch with Q&A. No Q&A in the sessions. No interaction at all in the main Executive sessions.

I have tried to get an Orinoco Wireless WiFi (Allchin pronounced it "Wiffy" at least seven times in his market department written presentation) and I can't get it to work with Windows 2000. Alex hasn't managed with Windows XP. No one else in the press section has connected to the Internet with their 802.11 cloud. Allchin couldn't connect to Wiffy. But Peter has connected to the Internet with the same card with his PowerBook ==  as Peter says, with Apple everything is either easy or impossible. Using the Orinoco card with his PowerBook was easy. With Windows 200o so far it has been impossible... (But that eventually worked see below.)

But back to the problem of content, since my 802.11b connection is a possible bonus and hardly the reason I am here. What has happened to WinHEC?

The problem is dilution. There is probably 20 hours of real content here, and that plus another 10 of dialogue, questions, etc. would make this what it used to be, one of the best conferences of the year. But the 20 hours of content is diluted to perhaps 100 hours (5 tracks) so that the real gold is hidden amongst filler, most of which has been generated by marketing people. Allchin, for instance, talked down to the audience as if we are all consumers and children: yet what is supposed to be here are the worker bees, the people who create and maintain and actually build computer systems and software. 

And the latest session is like a Science Fair for children who couldn't manage to get into Advance Placement. "Yes, Timmy, that's right, but have you thought about this?" The sessions were scripted but not rehearsed in front of an intelligent audience, and not timed properly. This morning has not been good.

Lunch Time

I have managed to get on the Internet. The local network is WINHWC2002. Yesterday it was WinHEC2002. It is case sensitive. Except that Peter's Apple didn't have that problem. He got on yesterday and he's still on today, in a hall that no one else can get on because of very weak signals. Astonishing.

I have seen the AMD people in their booth and will have mother boards with AMD chip sets shortly. 

What I can't do is send mail with this wireless connection. That I'll have to figure out another time. I can get mail with it. Earthlink won't send mail unless you are connected through Earthlink. I can live with that. But why jerrypournelle.com won't send mail is another story and I don't quite understand what I have to do. I'll worry about that one another time when I have more time.

Allchin this morning said that there are 17 million copies of Windows XP sold, and this was the most successful Windows launch yet. Richard Doherty observes that only 17 million after this much time is a disaster.

 

===

Afternoon: A session on Digital Rights Management, and the new Corona system: this had more content, and I need to digest that. They are doing some interesting and probably good things with Digital Rights Management. I need to know more, and Alex is getting technical details, but it looks interesting. This was worth coming for. There are some smart people working on Digital Rights Management, and at least the goals they express seem worthwhile. If they can implement what they have described things are not so bad.

In Press Room in theory with direct Internet Connection through local Ethernet:

Had my problems with the Ethernet, because I don't know how to tell the Ethernet how to get to the Earthlink mail server. Maybe I should have simply said mail.earthlink.net?  Windows 2000 doesn't seem to have a place to put the Server ID as we used to do with Windows 98. That's good, but when you have a direct connection as I have in the Microsoft Press Room, I can get web sites but telling Earthlink to log me in was not possible. I could do that from a hotel Ethernet connection without any trouble so it's a matter of knowing what to do I guess. I am on just now through a telephone at 56K from the Press Room and that's not bad. And so goes the first day...

I tried ELN\jerryp or I think I did with the direct Ethernet connection. Maybe I didn't do that right. At least this works. Dialup works as the connection of last resort...

And back at the hotel. I have done some mail. Note that Roland sends a warning that the Back button can be dangerous.

 

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Wednesday, April 17, 2002

I have figured out how to send mail through Pair.com; it's easy once you know how. Which is fine.

New Subscribers you will be enrolled when I get back home.

I am on line with the WiFi net they furnish here. These notes are taken in the meeting (I have my analog system, namely my log book as well for security...)

Audio Visual, Net Meeting, etc. 0800 but a good session.

Entire time off line for a month looking for security holes. That effort paid off, so they say. Microsoft is clearly after the home market, and A/V is a key.

The Crash Analysis shows that 90% of the bluescreens are from drivers that don't ship with Windows. (My experience is that they never answer the crash analysis mail.)


New subject:

Security:

  • Hacker attack
  • Content: rights management technology

"you would be amazed at how many ways drivers can expose attack surfaces." Plea from Microsoft to driver developers to pay attention to both DRM and anti-hack security. (Note this is not part of the OCA stuff mentioned above, which is an analysis of causes of bluescreens; as Roland points out, most Microsoft security problems are caused by holes in the OS.

Aside: for the past couple of months just about everyone at Microsoft has been taken "offline" to study security matters. We'll see the results of that in the next few months.


 

"Assure a high quality experience" is the new buzz phrase. And they are definitely designing for use by Aunt Minnie.

They also talk about "eco=systems" in computer stuff including home networks. I find that strange, and I don't much care for the term.

Goals for "Longhorn Audio" Include both USB and 1394 which makes sense. Firewire is here for a while even though Intel will never support it.

They have spent two months learning what it means to be a secure operating system. So saith Microsoft guru. "About bloody time" muttered one engineer behind me. But drivers are the key here and if the drivers are not secure then the system can't be, and they don't write the drivers. And therein lies a story.

Roland points out that in a properly designed OS the drivers won't make it secure.  We went through all that some time ago, when they moved some items from Ring 0 to Ring 1 for speed. But they hope now to write secure drivers, which turns out to be harder to do than many thought. 

One key is to have a secure driver set, then have the hardware engineers in other companies work through them. 


 

Great voice experience. A great meeting room experience. Ye Flipping Gods.

Trudy on simplicity. "Use Microsoft Drivers for your new hardware."

Global Effects GFX: lets you use Microsoft drivers and still let you add your own features. 

   New Enhanced Audio UI

   ONE Microphone Wizard, hurrah

ONE Audio UI  : Let the app determine what level of complexity of the UI it wants to expose. Graphic equalizer,  mixers -- it is a computer. And multiple UI drives people mad. Branding opportunities, extensibility.

OnLine Crash Analysis: 10% of all crashes were caused by audio devices. Hah. Like the bad old days of IRQ clashes, no?

Support ABANDONED hardware. In future if you use UAA and Microsoft Drivers, it will be secure and supported forever or at least the life of the hardware.  Well...


Some interesting case history of designing an Audio Interface and control system by Creative. They are doing some interesting things at Creative. I've lost track with them and I need to get back on and get some of their stuff again.

It is clear I am way out of touch with the world. What they play as illustrative music all sounds alike to me, and has little structure. At home I generally have either KUSC, KMOZART, or news on the HiFi and don't bother to play music with any of my PC's. And the CD's Microsoft plays to demonstrate what they are doing are incomprehensible to me. Electric Gaucho doesn't sound much different from the other groups of instrumentalists. Surely says more about me than them, But I'll stick with Beethoven, and if I want to be modern I'll go to Sir Hamilton Harty, Elgar, and the like...


The PC and the phone will be integrated. Instant messaging has become huge. It's getting bigger and better all the time.

The PC needs voice transport. XP has regular telephone capability now and that is 17 million.  Also thoughts: voicemail integrated with email. I don't know about that. Or voice integration with Word. Voice integrated with photo files: that one I can easily see as important. None of these involve speech recognition or voice to text: it's only voice recording.

Speech recognition is another area.

"A federation of high quality audio components" in PC but they are not well integrated and "result in a sub-optimum experience". The Phone has lower quality components but they work together to give a better user experience.

There is a lot of emphasis on adding voice transport to Windows. Communications continue...

Analog Devices...  "process audio with good algorithms".  Enhancing sound quality for conferencing means better microphones will be needed. But they are getting good at this. 

Speech recognition? Voice control of PC? Things are developing. "Spectral Subtraction" = "pure audio" : new algorithm being developed to remove noise both electronic and ambient acoustic noise.

Adaptive beam formation, echo canceling. Embedded applications: laptops, monitors. Embedded microphones can be a lot better, and as input in laptops big things are coming with the new algorithms to correct for the hardware problems. The silly stick microphone == they wanted it closer to you. Headset microphone close talking, buy the input electronics were awful. That's changing, and the Analog Devices codec on the mother board is changing it rapidly, but headsets are rejected by users who don't like to wear them. So embed an array of microphones into the computer itself or into the monitor, and then you can just talk to it.

Headsets are about $100 but an array microphone can be $30 or so. They are now a lot more but you can make them less. 

Tests of speech recognition in "real world" environments like real offices and homes. And office noise levels of 65 db. 

The USB headsets have about the same performance across many environments, but an array mike meets or exceeds that quality, so arrays with algorithms can be used for speech recognition. Interesting. And you don't need to be tethered.

 


They really are using the data in the Online Crash Analysis, and it's helping a lot to find what went wrong and why bluescreens. Of course that's in Windows XP. But they have hundreds of thousands of data points and they have found ways to do things about many of the problems. Seems to be a fair amount of enthusiasm about this feedback mechanism.


This network comes and goes. Sometimes the signal strength is fine other times it goes away and I can't get pages to upload. Interesting. But when it is working it is wonderful. WiFi Everywhere! Please!

 

Press lunch:

PCI Express. That's not PCI - X, it's the new 3GIO standard. It's in review now and a standard ought to be released by June. PCI backward compatible and a partridge in a pear tree. More in the column.

We should be seeing PCI Express silicon in motherboards in about a year.


Longhorn and Video

Who owns the master clock, and what about latencies? Is source clock independent of the bus clock or are both slaved to a common master clock?

 In current webcams there is no timestamp and no clock on the device at all. High jitter. Audio and video devices have different paths and thus different latencies.

Proliferation of drivers, and what's in the box is out of synch with the OS.

CLASS DRIVERS provide good user experiences...

Longhorn: USBVIDEO.SYS will come in the OS. IHV can make use and add features upstream.

 

 


The above is an experiment I will not repeat, since it was an attempt to take notes and put them in a day book. After all, we can be on line here. But it makes it possible for me to say silly things I didn't intend, because the organization of the notes is not clear, and there's little separation between subjects or even speakers.  I won't do it again. I will leave this morning's work up, but in future I'll keep my undigested thoughts and notes to myself. 


Roland sends this link with the title Ordnung!

http://www.infoworld.com/articles/
hn/xml/02/04/16/020416hngoogle.xml
 

Well, I have managed to get on line with the Ethernet in the Press Room. It took a bit of doing, but we figured it out. In Network connections, find the proper one for the Ethernet port, and tell it to automatically get an address. Which worked just fine.  Now I can dial up with modem, use the Orinoco PC card WiFi, or just plug this in.  Worked. Fine. And we've figured out how to send mail. Joy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Thursday, April 18, 2002

 

I will try this experiment one more time: if the net continues I'll upload as I write. This is session notes.

Williams gives a keynote at 0900: the speech that ought to have  been given at the first session. Acknowledges that the wireless demo done by Allchin didn't work, but doesn't tell us why it didn't work. But at least he acts as if he is talking to a technical audience.

Gates brings out the WinHEC Wars award.

Evolutionary and revolutionary ecosystems, says Bill Gates. Revolutionary in terms of the things we do. PDA with AI, a central point of control, all made seamless by XML and all Real Soon Now.

The PC has a very high market share on the desktop. Is taking "a bit longer" at the server level. Use the architecture of the PC for server computers--that is happening. (Ie they are really going after the server market?) "We need to get showcase systems out there so that people understand why they ought to use PC for servers..."

Continuous improvement loop == using customers as the test lab and QA department. But this is pretty traditional in the PC world, so I can't argue that.

Latencies are very hard to improve. Indeed. Unless you can improve local system AI then much of this can't be done. Devices for reading, note taking, are up to the Newton almost (my phrase not his) but the Tablet PC will be out this time next year from 5 different mfgrs. Voice command and getting microphone to be a standard element is a goal for us. A very important goal for us. Larger screen areas. LCD's are cheap now.

My observation is that local AI is the thing that is needed, and they do seem to know that.

 

Bluetooth as an extension of USB where everything can connect. Microsoft will have a Bluetooth SDK out shortly and Windows CE already has that. Coexistent with 802.11; complementary roles. 802.11 is Ethernet anywhere you go.  Learning how to VPN and gateway through if you visit another corporation.

We want to see wireless networking pervasive.

p5040034.jpg (407605 bytes)

DEMO: initiate a PC to cell phone call. USB handset for this: integration of PC and telephone. Keeping phone logs on the PC. Incoming calls can be filtered, or put on voice mail. Complete PC and phone integration. 

Williams says having multiple monitors on desk ups productivity by 20% or so. People learn to multi-task. (They are not fiction writers.) Users are aware of peripheral events, so a focal point primary, and Inverted T of screens

Richard Doherty says "these are hunter gatherers, not tool makers or creators." The multi-task fits them...

More demonstrations of graphics and THE ELECTRONIC HOME

Distribution of information around the home...

(The network seems to have crashed: no signal for several minutes now)

Electronic home should have seamless integration of consumer devices; recognize new devices; put the image on whatever screen you like, a Mira or a big living room flat screen or anywhere. Enable all that through the PC, and 

show us Dinosaur? In surround sound? But industrial design can make this part of our daily lives, so that we can reverberate to hard rock at home controlled by the PC?

Actually, it's an interesting vision although the examples are not what I would like. 

A new concept: TRUSTWORTHY computing. Several product groups took several months not doing anything in new development but looking at code for reliability and security. "Trustworthy computing" can't be an oxymoron. This means going beyond anything that has existed before. "Let there be security" saith Chairman Bill, and apparently everyone in the company is marching to that beat.

Software VERIFICATION is back. Edsger Djkstra phone home! Driver verification. 

And this is what he means by an eco-system; that all the parts work together and has the "guaranteed stability" we all want. The fault reporting closes the loop and they find that a small number of problems cause the majority of crashes. This is blue screen reporting, and they use connectivity to allow you to anonymously send the fault report. 

Crash analysis: now comes the OCA report == login with passport == and for me nothing happened. No acknowledgment to me. They are claiming they now actually communicate with you and show you where you can get the fix. I would be happy if they could do that; with me they didn't do it, but perhaps that has been fixed now. 

Demo of how errors are reported to the company or product group responsible for the problem. In order of frequency. Next year they hope to report how many problems solved.

Gates says WiFi not Wiffy; counts WiFi as a success. 802.11 a success. If there is anything of Microsoft in that "year of progress" report I didn't see it: they are participating in these new successes of course. People are thinking about things that are good long term contributions...

Trustworthy computing is the key element to pull all this together. It will be expensive and take time but the payoff will be large.

End of Gates speech

Intel now comes forth:

What should we do to make computing better?

Wireless, better batteries, connectivity.

Talking about mature vs emerging markets, and Moore's Law

The goal is to bring computing to everyone at every time and place. Pervasive computing. Distributed intelligence is pervasive now, not just PC but cars, houses, cell phones, distributed computing

This year PC number one BILLION will ship and about the same time the billionth cell phone will be in use. 1.4 billion web pages this year.

INTEL: we are a microprocessor company and will always be. We are also the world's leading supplier of Ethernet silicon and we are the 3rd largest communications silicon company

I said it here, echoing Eric, a few years ago: everything is going to be smart and it will all talk to each other. It is beginning to happen says Intel, and that is their mission at Intel. Drive this convergence onto the chip.

It's all smart and it all talks to each other. Everything is smart and it all talks to each other. Your telephone natters with your toaster about your bank balance.

BANIAS demo, world's first here; it will be out in 2003

 

Banias new mobile platform: longer battery life and 802.11 built on, other such stuff.

World first demo, silicon that is about one week old. Seamless wireless in notebooks. This is literally the first generation silicon.

 

We saw 3 GHz systems to play movies, with Hyper=Threading.  "Two processors in one"  More performance per chip. 2003 use Hyper=threading

Going to create a safer computing environment: platform level security. Protect information and assets. Intel is putting secure and trustworthy computing into silicon for the platform level for delivery. Emotionally and politically charged: has to be done in a responsible manner. Stay tuned.

Platform enhancement:  graphics, power optimization, web services,

Handheld platforms. Intel in WinCE environment. Mobile chips. Wireless internet on a chip. WindowsCE.NET on a chip. Common development environment. See charts for more. (Actually see column for other www.byte.com articles for more. It won't be here.)

Notebooks are now getting Pentium 4 but we are integrating user demands, such as power life. Video from Banias design site. The lab is in Israel.

USER Experience but all the Banias designers don't speak good english. They sound like Leon in Ronin...

INTEL vd SUN  McKinley will to 1.70 as opposed to 1.15 for New Sun in OLTP...  and then comes Madison with almost double that. Shows the first Madison wafer off the fab. 

Thirteen Billion bucks in new fabs for Intel. 

The two most difficult years in the history of the industry. Through all this Intel continued to invest. 

We will continue to deliver the best in silicon, etc. Marketing stuff. Accelerate the notion of convergenve.

And lunch is now being served.

===

Reflection. We had a 3 GHz machine that couldn't recode a music program and simultaneously play a DVD movie: the movie was jerky. Even with their "hyper-threaded code" stuff it didn't play properly. Why can't a 3 GHz system play a DVD? Windows? What? It was a very odd demo and I can't find anyone to explain it. After all, I play DVD on 1 GHz systems without problems.

===

Peter Glaskowsky on the future of chips. I stayed an extra day to hear this, and IT WAS WORTH IT. You'll be seeing this in the column over time.

AMD is competitive in price/performance and

  • "AMD has earned a reputation among tech-savvy PC buyers as the best value among high end systems"
  • "This reputation was earned despite some conspicuous weak spots in the AMD product line."

Question: "Which would you rather have an AMD or an INTEL system?"

"Intel if cost is not the main factor."

p5040072.jpg (419704 bytes)

But note that there will be NO INTEL dual processor desk top systems: Intel ain't making them. This is good news for gamers since AMD will have duals and at reasonable prices -- I have one after all. A dual Athlon that screams. So that's an interesting variation.

On the server side, Intel has a bunch of stuff coming, and from Profusion they bought high end server architecture, 4 processes on each of two buses and more. If you need to know a lot about this, you need more than me to tell you.

 

 

 

 

Damon was an old friend and sometimes opponent, and the only man I know who could honestly lay a better claim to being a curmudgeon than me. I'll miss him.

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/04/17/obituaries/17KNIG.html 

And that is the end of the day. We are off to do social things as soon as Alex gets out of the color management seminar. And I seem to have changed my ticket so that I can get out of here in the morning. Home tomorrow and I won't be sorry.

 

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Friday, April 19, 2002

Home. We have been well and truly WinHECed. I lost about an hour's work I did on the airplane: I simply cannot find it. In fact, FRONT PAGE on the Armada just can't find any of the work I did in Front Page. I have the horrible feeling it has to do with the "user settings" in Windows 2000, and I need to do something drastic to that. But I cannot find any of the work I did. None. Zero.

It is as if I had never done any work on Front Page at all. Yet I certainly shut down the system and brought it up many times while I was in Seattle. Where could my new files be hiding? Sigh.

I also seem to have lost all the mail I did. This I can't even find on the SITE. There is something very wrong here.

It may be of course that I copied in the wrong direction when I tried to copy from the laptop to the main computer. I thought I had not done that. In any event, stuff I wrote on the way down seems to be gone and not findable. Pity but there it is.

I did have this notion about Palestine:

Imagine that Israel draws a boundary, and expels all the Palestinians from within it; we hope with compensation. What's outside is now Palestine.

The world gives Palestine a present: the Brits get to run it, rule of law, police, courts, exactly as they ran Hong Kong. This will go for 25 years after which there will be an election.

No taxes: the government is paid for by the international community. There can be some money for infrastructure but again the Brits administer all this.

Think of Hong Kong 1950 and again in 1975. Palestine would be richer than socialist high tax Israel.

Of course it won't happen.

=====

Then we have

http://rinkworks.com/dialect/ 

 

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Saturday, April 20, 2002

 It's 420 do you know where your kids are?

Can anyone tell me how to find the clear text and font smoothing stuff in Windows XP?  I guarantee that XP HELP is no help at all.

OK: Right click desktop, properties, appearance, EFFECTS button, and you can find cleartype. Moreover, if you go to HELP and look for cleartype it will find it. But if you search for clear type, smooth text, or almost any logical name for what you want to do, you will not be successful. Microsoft doesn't seem to have naive testers nor intelligent index writers. Which detracts from the User Experience...

If they are serious about a rich satisfactory user experience they ought to put some money into indexing HELP.

And I have this:

Jerry,

There's a little more to it, since ClearType needs to be "tuned." That can be done either via Web or a separate program:

http://www.microsoft.com/typography/
cleartype/cleartypeactivate.htm?fname=%20&fsize
 

 http://www.offroadsearch.com/software/cleartweak 

rseiler

And indeed it is very well worth doing. This will go into the column; it makes nVIDIA geforce boards look very good in XP. It may even be a reason to go to XP from 2000 since it seems to look better in XP than on this 2000 machine (I did identical installations in both). But it is worth your time to experiment. The results are quite dramatic.


 

 

I was impressed this week with the Clue newsletter:

I don't know if you can stand the blinks, but it won't be forever. There's some complicated code thing for getting you direct to the subscription page, but I fear I didn't take time to understand it. But the newsletter is often worth reading. 

One of these days I will learn how to make that kind of GIF image. I suspect I already know but have forgotten because I don't do it much.

And if you are interested in art history, this from Roland:

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/04/21/
magazine/21LEO.html?homepageinsidebox
  -- ----- Roland Dobbins <mordant@gothik.org> 

Which tells a fascinating tale

 

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Sunday, April 21, 2002

Relatives are in town, there is an opera thing at the opera house tonight, and I have to get ready for a week long trip that begins tomorrow.

And a ton of work. 

 

 

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