| Thursday,
September 20, 2007
Headlines
>>And wow did Kerry miss a chance for some
headlines! I will defend to the death your right etc etc...<<
That's a thought! Find someone willing to be tasered
in public to help promote Inferno II. You could denounce anarcho-tyranny in
the foreground while the victim writhes in agony in the background. Cory
Doctorow seems to like attention. Maybe he'll volunteer?
btw, I'm more comfortable now about printed books for
my current and future projects. One of my engineer collaborators pointed out
that technical books with reference quality are less likely to be resold for
used than are works of fiction.
Mark
==
Tasered kid
Hi Jerry,
Mr. Couvillon wrote, "One resists the authorities at
their peril."
I'm certainly glad the folks back in 1776 didn't think
this way. Of course, they actually did, if you bother to read what they
wrote about the events in which they were embroiled. They fully understood
that they could be hanged for speaking out against The Crown. Raising arms
against The King was grounds for more than being hanged and all of them knew
it and it scared the hell out of them, as it would any sane person. And they
did it anyway...
Now, I would never put this kid in the same league as
the men and women who stood their ground then and seriously stand their
ground now. The question for me is, what law did the kid break before the
police attacked him? And yes, I mean attacked. If there was no crime, court
after court after court has upheld a citizen's right to resist police
actions that violate their legal and moral rights. I've watched the video -
several times - and I don't see a crime. I see obnoxious and obviously
staged adolescent behavior, but I do not see a crime. The proper course
would have been to turn off the microphone, let the kid rant for a while or
until he actually broke a law, and then either let him wander out in
disgrace or be led out after being told why he was being arrested. That's
how it's supposed to work. I do something that a policeman thinks is
breaking the law. He or she tells me I have broken the law and which law. I
am then either cited or taken to jail. The police have no more right to
smash my legs now than they did 100 years ago.
What scares me the most, Jerry, is how much of the,
"if he had just done what he was ordered to do," I'm actually reading and
hearing. Are these The People of which the government is supposed to be
afraid and respectful? Have we truly become subjects and not free-thinking
citizens?
As for Alex's question, "what would you do were you
the guest lecturer?" I would have bolted out from behind that podium and
told those officers if they drag that boy off they better get ready to drag
me off as well. I would have asked for the audience's help in making a
citizen's arrest of the officers in question and marched them off to the
police station where as a Senator of the U.S. Congress and free citizen of
the U.S.A, I would have filed charges against them for creating a public
nuisance and any other charges I could think of. In short, I would have
stood up for the rights of all Americans to speak their minds and assemble
peacefully without harrassment by overzealous authorities looking to instill
the proper respect for the law in yet another generation of men. That did
not happen and that is the saddest cut of all.
Braxton S. Cook
p.s. And before anyone asks, yes, I have been
assaulted by the police, handcuffed, and thrown across the hood of a police
car for standing up for the rights of another. I did it then. I would do it
again in a heartbeat.
First, whatever Colonel Couvillon's
sentiments on revolution, his advice is sound. One does resist the
authorities at one's peril; which is to say, pick your fights carefully, and
be prepared for bad results. (And don't pick more than one fight at a time
if you want to win either of them.)
Having said that, I have already said that
any competent bouncer would have got the kid out of the room without having
to taser him. Of course the victim was looking for the opportunity to make a
scene; that is what he was there for. I can see one of my sons in that
situation back when they were in college and belonged to campus political
organizations. Heck, one of them used to appear at political events in
prison garb and handcuffs.
Third, look how Kerry won his Silver Star
and then think whether the actions you describe would be characteristic of
him. Although I do think Senator Goldwater might have acted as you describe.
He was quite a man in his day.
==============
OJ Defense
You rang?
I practice criminal defense (career public defender
type). While frankly I'm not following the OJ chronicles your question is
fairly easy to answer.
It's somewhat unusual to have a no-contact order
between co-defendants, at least in my jurisdiction, but it doesn't
necessarily prevent him putting on a good defense. Each defendant will have
his own attorney and there will be some level of information exchange among
the attorneys.
The state, of course, is hoping that one or more of
the entourage will flip and provide testimony that OJ planned or directed
the (legally) significant acts. The fear is that if he is allowed
unrestricted access to them he can influence them--whether negatively, by
threat of force; or positively, promise of reward--not to take the offer the
the state is holding out. I would guess that you've read John Von Neumann on
the "Prisoner's Dilemma." Isolation of the defendants is necessary for the
state to be able to exert that pressure.
But, you say, that tilts the field too far in the
state's favor! Well, yes--yes it does. The courts will, in most cases, make
sure that the state is not unduly hindered in convicting the defendant.
After all, he wouldn't be there if he wasn't guilty, now would he?
James
So we must hire lawyers even to discuss
our defense; my lawyer can't talk to you, but must talk to your lawyer, thus
providing full employment for those of the esquire persuasion...
===========
On the Five Minute
Car Charge
5 Minute Car Charge
Let's run some numbers.
Assume 50hp is required to travel 60 MPH. 500 miles
would take 8.34 hours. 50hp is roughly 37.29kw. So we would need 311kwh to
make the trip.
Let's assume an 800V battery and ignore all of the
conversion losses. To charge this battery in 5 minutes would require over
FOUR THOUSAND AMPS! (311KWH / 800volts = 390 Amp/Hours x 60 minutes/hour =
23,400 amps in one minute / 5 minutes = 4,680 amps) Lower voltage would
scale the current upward proportionally.
I smell snake oil.
Gene Horr
==
This sounds very reminiscent of James Patterson's
"cold fusion" hot water heater that was featured in a story on ABC's "20-20"
news magazine back in January 1996. In that story, it was reported that he
had made the celebrated "excess heat" effect consistent, repeatable, and was
getting better than two watts of heat out for every watt put in. According
to the report, he was going to start selling water heaters using that
principle.
It didn't happen, obviously.
The innards of this device are entirely different from
Patterson's, and they aren't saying the words "cold fusion", or even
"palladium". Still, if they can get the amount of heat out that they claim,
from devices that they can mass produce, I don't think anyone will much care
whether the energy comes from cold fusion, a Casimir tap, siphoning off
magic from Faerie, or putting a pirate tap into the Galactic Empire's
broadcast power network.
At least, until a few decades from now, when
collections agents of Galactic Power and Light show up with an electric bill
in arrears.
I'm not holding my breath, of course.
-- Mike Van Pelt
==
Jerry, I'm not an engineer, but it seems to me that an
electric socket provides power at the rate of one or two HP. You can't drive
a car for 500 miles, 10 hours at something of the order of 50-100 HP, and
plug it in for 5 minutes for a recharge. You need a 6,000-10,000 HP socket
for that.
I made that guess in HP. As you can see it's about 10
megawatts. No such power in my house, I'm glad to say.
Regards, Adrian Camp
==============
Lepanto
Ave Doctor Pournelle!
After reading James Pinkerton's essay "The Once &
Future Christendom", I turned to Chesterton for some more sustenance of the
kind. It may be that, along with "The Gods of the Copybook Headings" and
"The Old Issue" you might like to point your readers (again, since people do
sometimes need reminding) to "Lepanto":
http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Lepanto
"Lepanto"
White founts falling in the courts of the sun,
And the Soldan of Byzantium is smiling as they run,
There is laughter like the fountains in that face of all men feared,
It stirs the forest darkness, the darkness of his beard,
It curls the blood-red crescent,
the crescent of his lips,
For the inmost sea of all the earth is shaken with his ships.
They have dared the white republics up the capes of
Italy,
They have dashed the Adriatic round the Lion of the Sea,
And the Pope has cast his arms abroad for agony and loss,
And called the kings of Christendom for swords about the Cross,
The cold queen of England is looking in the glass;
The shadow of the Valois is yawning at the Mass;
From evening isles fantastical rings faint the Spanish gun,
And the Lord upon the Golden Horn is laughing in the sun.
And it's beautiful also!
Petronius
And the last knight of Europe takes
weapons from the wall
==
Dear Jerry,
I agree with much of the essay by Mr. Pinkerton. The
Shire (Christendom) is essential to western civilization; however, the Shire
is in dire need of reformation lest it become a hollow shell. Christianity
has a number of problems some of which date all the way back to the apostle
Paul. The first reformation was never truly completed. There exists in
Christianity today a defeatist attitude among many. Christians revere the
suffering of Jesus and conclude that suffering, and miseries are worthy
goals. Consider that the first response to Pinkerton's essay to be posted on
your site contained a reference to the end of days. I think it is more
likely and desirable that a second reformation takes place. Some Christians
seem to yearn for the end of our world like medieval supplicants eager to
perform self-flagellation.
A strong and resurgent Christian church could easily
resist any threat posed by militant Islam, but Christianity must first
overcome internal problems. Popular culture has transformed much of
Christian teaching into a naive belief in a God more like a fairy Godmother
with a magic wand. A watered down touchy- feely Christianity will not
produce the knights that Pinkerton refers to. I can just picture a group of
Christians holding hands, singing Kumbahyah, and Give Peace a Chance. These
people will not be much defense because they do not wish to understand
history. Jesus of Nazareth clearly taught that peace is a worthy goal, but
peace requires effort.
King David was a great tactician who found peace
through military strength. Solomon found peace through negotiation, treaty,
and trade. Jesus of Nazareth taught that peace could be found through
change. Love your enemies and pray for those that persecute you. Change your
enemies so that they are your brothers, and lasting peace is found. Each
method of finding peace rests on the foundation of the other. Universal
brotherhood is only one of the technologies of Christ. Forgiveness is
another. A concept like the wheel can develop into a technology like turbine
bearings with sufficient time and effort. The teachings of Jesus contain
simple concepts with profound consequences for humanity. Forgiveness changes
both the forgiver and the forgiven allowing both to progress forward. A
society with no concept of forgiveness might look much like the Pashtun
culture of western Pakistan. These are good and intelligent people with a
tradition of hospitality and kindness, but they are not big on forgiveness.
Hostilities between families can last for generations so they have
difficulty moving forward. They also have few if any factories making gas
turbine bearings.
I had an interesting conversation with a man from
Syria who converted from Islam to Christianity. He had become disenchanted
with the inconsistency in Islamic teaching, and the evasiveness of the
Mullahs he spoke with. He had been told many falsehoods about Christian
teaching, but he read the Bible and discovered the simplicity, power, and
courage exemplified by Jesus, Solomon, Samuel, etc. He now lives near
Dallas, and remains a devout Christian, but he considers most American
Christians to be ignorant wimps. (My words not his--he's a polite fellow)
His criticism of modern Christianity should be heeded. Islamic men may
respect a courageous Jesus, but they will not respect the Disney version.
Islam is an Abrahamic faith that recognizes one God.
The threat of Islamic extremism and its associated barbarity is real, but
the Shire has overcome much worse. Starvation was common, the law was lost,
and human sacrifice had returned when an eight-year old boy named Josiah
became King. He sent his scribe into the ruins of the temple, and the law
was found. Monotheism survived that day. The law matters because ideas
matter. Some of the great teachings of our civilization come from Solomon,
Jesus, Locke, Jefferson, etc. These teachings are our Shire. The first great
reformation occurred partly because of the development of the printing
press. The Internet will bring about the next reformation.
Kind Regards,
Ray Karcher
=================
Captain McFadden reminds us:
Your Kipling recommendations would be well served by the addition of
MacDonough's Song.
Yours Aye!
Rod
http://whitewolf.newcastle.edu.au/words/authors/
K/KiplingRudyard/verse/p3/macdonough.html
WHETHER the State can loose and bind
In Heaven as well as on Earth:
If it be wiser to kill mankind
Before or after the birth—
These are matters of high concern
Where State-kept schoolmen are;
But Holy State (we have lived to learn)
Endeth in Holy War.
Whether The People be led by The Lord,
Or lured by the loudest throat:
If it be quicker to die by the sword
Or cheaper to die by vote—
These are things we have dealt with once,
(And they will not rise from their grave)
For Holy People, however it runs,
Endeth in wholly Slave.
Whatsoever, for any cause,
Seeketh to take or give,
Power above or beyond the Laws,
Suffer it not to live!
Holy State or Holy King—
Or Holy People’s Will—
Have no truck with the senseless thing.
Order the guns and kill!
Saying—after—me:—
Once there was The People—Terror gave it birth;
Once there was The People and it made a Hell of Earth.
Earth arose and crushed it. Listen, O ye slain!
Once there was The People—it shall never be again!
========
Climate change, energy and health
Dear Dr. Pournelle,
"The Lancet" has an interesting article:
http://www.euractiv.com/en/health/
energy-impact-health-largely-neglected/article-66688.
"The current debate on climate change neglects a
number of issues concerning energy as a major determinant of human health,
argues Dr Richard Horton in a medical journal. He urges the adoption of
'safe nuclear' as a bridge between fossil fuels and renewables."
I lived for ten years (1958-68) near Charleroi,
Belgium, when the coal mines where still active. To quote Wikipedia,
"Charleroi is in the center of a vast coal basin, called Pays noir" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charleroi).
"Pays noir" means "black land", because of the coal dust that kept falling
from the sky (and that my mother kept dusting off). Think of it as a slow
motion Plinian eruption of Vesuvius...
A. Romain
=========
The Hydrogen Myth
Jerry,
Since your mailbag has some questions about hydrogen,
your readers might be interested in a talk I gave at DragonCon a couple of
weeks ago on "The Hydrogen Myth." You can download a PDF of it here:
<http://www.stephenfleming.net/filesharing.html>
I had a standing-room-only crowd heavily populated
with environmentalists, and I think I did a pretty good job of convincing
them that we're not going to be burning hydrogen in our cars anytime soon.
You may be amused to note that I lifted my
"Disclaimer" slide from the one you used to use for North American Rockwell.
I gave you (verbal) credit in each of my five presentations; there was
always a murmur of recognition in the room.
Cheerfully,
Stephen
-- Stephen Fleming
Chief Commercialization Officer
Georgia Tech <fleming@gatech.edu>
As I have been saying since my "Hydrogen
Economy" article in 1978, there are no hydrogen wells. It's a distribution
system.
After our experiences with hydrogen
rockets in DC/X I am no longer an advocate of hydrogen as rocket fuel; and
for the same reasons, I don't like it much as an energy pipeline fluid. It's
just too hard to contain. Hydrogen wants loose, bad...
==
Morning Jerry
> A Austin-based startup called EEStor promised
"technologies for replacement of electrochemical batteries," meaning a
motorist could plug in a car for five minutes and drive 500 miles round
trip between Dallas and Houston without gasoline."
The engineer in me just had to start scratching on the
back of an envelope:-
My car does 33 miles to the gallon (imperial) on a
long run. 500 mile trip = 15.2gal = 69.1l
Wikipedia tels me 91octane petrol has 34.8MJ/l (Mega
Joules per litre).
Therefore I consume 2400MJ on my trip.
Assuming 25% efficiency for the car that gives me
600MJ of energy for the 500 miles.
Assume 90% efficiency for battery/capacitor/electric
motor transport = 666MJ for the trip.
Charging time = 5min = 300sec.
1 Watt = 1 Joule/sec
666MJ in 5 min = 2.2MW
Assuming 200V for the operating voltage gives an
average charging current of 11,000A!!!! (and remember this is a capacitor
based system so the initial current will be much higher.....).
A big filling station in the UK can refuel 10,000+
cars a day. Can you say on site multiple nuclear reactors :-)
I can only assume that the 5min is the time taken to
swap out the capacitor pack but even so charging and handling thousands of
packs a day is going to change the face of filling stations.
All the best
Ian Crowe
=============
Jacobean concepts
Jerry
First we need to identify who and what the
Neo-Cons are in reality before the average person can understand them. When
Rockefeller, Morgan and Ford sponsored Adolph in the German National
Socialist experiment other wealthy Democrats went along with them because it
sounded good and fitted into their Jacobean concepts of industry and
government in step together to the benefit of both. They also began
implementing the same system in this country through first the colleges and
then the public schools through the NEB.
When it became obvious to many of them even before the
assault on Poland what Adolph intended many including Prescott Bush dropped
out of the support for him. They stayed Democrats though and were to a great
extent responsible for Truman and other moderately liberal democrats in
government. Later with first Kennedy who they tolerated and then with LBJ
who they despised these thin skinned Illuminati began deserting the
democratic fold. They came to the republicans on the coattails of Reagan and
became the new republicans with George HW Bush. They call themselves neo
conservatives because they are new to the conservative concept and really do
not have an understanding of what conservative means.
So in real truth these neo-cons are nothing but
moderately liberal democrats who were not able to contend with the New Left
program and with what the Democratic Party agenda has become. But in their
hearts they are still democrats with strong democratic beliefs in Jacobean
philosophy and the feeling that if everybody becomes a democrat and if every
government is a democratic government the world will then be a nice place to
live. The biggest problem with George W is that he really with all his heart
feels that he is doing the right thing and making the world safe for
democracy. He lacks understanding of the evils of democracy as much as a
Muslim suicide bomber lacks understanding of the evils of radical Islam.
James Early
Long Beach, CA
========
Hopeless Tactics
Dr Pournelle,
I read the letter from Mr
Banet-Rivet. I'm wondering why he believes " The "insurgents" would not
last very long if they did not have the support of most of the population"
and appears to think the support of the population for our foes is a given.
Anbar, a province widely considered lost a year ago, is now touted as a
model for future progress. The people of that province threw their lot in
with our foes, and discovered that this was a bad plan. It turns out our
foes include evil people who seek to impose their own views on others. The
Sheiks of Anbar learned that the US Army and USMC will let them live their
lives pretty much as they will, instead. There are even former insurgents
cooperating in joint operations with the US against AQI. As we shift to
focus more effort against the Qods Force, we're starting to see Shia
militias attempting to cooperate against our mutual foes in the south.
The fact is that since WWII, two thirds of
insurgencies have failed, even though the Bipolar world was as good a medium
for insurgency success as has existed in human history. It generally takes a
decade to accomplish this defeat. Vietnam is a fine example. In point of
fact, we have a historically cheap war, in terms of dead and wounded,
reports from Iraqi morgues have never agreed with the high local death rate
reported on the news, and we aren't operating behind the normal schedule for
victorious fights against insurgencies. It is costing a fair chunk of
change, but at least some of that is because the Peace Dividend cuts were
too deep, and all concerned knew it at the time. Politics has always been
the weak spot, but is 2003 Iraq really worse ground to grow a democracy than
1945 Korea?
Note also that the "much publicized strikes" that " do
not achieve anything of importance" are in fact doing a fine job of
attriting those experienced insurgents and terrorists, and it is easy to see
in the reports of enemy operations the decreasing skill level, shown in
terms of choices of attack methods and choices of targets.
Far from bunkering down, the US Army is aggressively
patrolling and conducting offensive operations. Our big mistake has been to
pursue priorities to reduce short term risk instead of pursuing the
accomplishment of the mission, but we've set some good conditions to allow
further progress and we're moving to put US troops in contact with the
people. In my personal experience, this is the biggest and most important
step in winning hearts and minds.
The Iraqi Army has grown from nothing to a collection
of brigades, conducting their own operations and attempting to grow division
and corps level headquarters. Each step up the echelon to a higher level
headquarters adds complexity and the span of assets needed to synchronize,
but I can tell you from experience that if you take a brigade's worth of
trained and experienced troops, and make them verify the common skills that
all soldiers are expected to know, the skills their individual specialties
are expected to know, fireteam operations, squad level operations, platoons,
companies, battalions and brigades, without conducting combat operations
concurrently, and with no weekends off, the process takes around four
months. This presumes that when you start, you have experienced colonels
where you need experienced colonels, that where you need good supply
sergeants, you have them, and so forth. We're doing a pretty good job of
creating a professional army from scratch. I'll note that polls in Iraq show
their Army is the most trusted organization in their government, much like
ours is the most trusted organization in our government.
It also seems odd to attempt to train the Iraqis to
lead themselves and get along with each other by keeping all power and
control centralized in US hands. We tell people the way to learn is by
doing, so shouldn't we let the Iraqis try to do those things we think they
should be doing? If we don't, how will they ever learn, or show us they are
learning?
The only place where we are really screwing up is the
same one we've screwed up for decades. Information Operations. I can't tell
you a good way to fix that which it might actually be possible to put into
place.
A serving officer
It says a great deal about the United States
that the Army is indeed the most trusted institution in the US, rating far
above the Congress, the Courts, the Department of Defense, and all political
parties.
We are attempting to create an Iraqi national
army that will ally with us, rather than building auxiliaries. That may or
may not be the best strategy; but it is certainly not a stupid one.
=========
From another conference:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/09/070913140311.htm
Good Fences Make Good Neighbors
Science Daily - In the last century, more
than 100 million people have perished in violent conflict, very often
because of local clashes between ethnically or culturally distinct
groups. In a novel study recently in Science, researchers report on a
mathematical model that can predict where ethnic conflict will erupt.
The study, conducted by scientists at the
New England Complex Systems Institute (NECSI) and Brandeis University,
can be applied to many areas and its predictions were tested on distinct
ethnic groups in India and the former Yugoslavia. The researchers
applied a model of global pattern formation that differentiates regions
by culture. They discovered that heterogeneous areas with poorly-
defined boundaries were prone to ethnic conflict.
The research asserts that in highly mixed
regions, groups of the same type are not large enough to sway collective
behavior toward claiming any particular public space; likewise,
well-segregated groups are protected by clear boundaries identifying
their space. However, the study concludes that "partial separation with
poorly defined boundaries fosters conflict."
In essence, as poet Robert Frost wrote in a
well-known poem, "good fences make good neighbors." Well-defined borders
help prevent ethnic tension.
"Our research shows that violence takes
place when an ethnic group is large enough to impose cultural norms on
public spaces, but not large enough to prevent those norms from being
broken," said Brandeis researcher Dr. May Lim. "Usually this occurs in
places where boundaries between groups are unclear."
Reflecting an emerging direction in science
applied to social policy, the study applies the scientific principles of
pattern formation--which are used to describe, for example, how
chemicals separate by type or phase--to the huge social problem of
ethnic conflict. The researchers discovered that ethnic violence occurs
in certain predictable patterns, just as do other collective behaviors
in physical, biological, and social complex systems.
"The concept of pattern formation, while it
may have been originally developed to understand chemical systems, is
really a scientific model of collective behaviors, in which you look at
those aspects that control overall behavior," said co-author and NECSI
president Yaneer Bar-Yam.
"This study provides an indication of where
regions may run into trouble, and how to avoid conflict, said Bar-Yam,
adding, "this research reflects a tremendous opportunity for us to
address a wide range of social concerns with new scientific tools."
Note: This story has been adapted from a
news release issued by Brandeis University.
========
From another conference, in a discussion
of heredity and environment:
When describing the adult product as 90 per cent
nature, 10 per cent nurture I am sure you would allow, perhaps by averaging
or perhaps by merely excluding outliers, for the cases of disastrous
childhood; Romanian orphanage to age 5, drunken foster parents thereafter,
no books or stimulation. Apart from that clarifying or qualifying point,
what do you class as Naure and what as Nurture. Clearly you would put foetal
viral damage into the Nature category. But what about foetal alcohol damage?
What about the very natural effects of the peer interactions that Judith
Rich Harris has made so much of? That could raise the 10 per cent to perhaps
50, could it not??
I wrote forty years ago that many of those in West
Africa were STUNTED, due to protein deficiencies in childhood and general
debilitating diseases; and thus IQ statistics from Africa were meaningless
when looking into heredity.
That doesn't mean that one can ignore the EFFECTS
of low IQ in perpetuating these horrors.
The essay was for American Legion Magazine and the
remedy I proposed was protein flour made from trash fish; distribute this
stuff all over Africa and see if it had an effect. It would have been a hell
of a lot lower cost than what we were sending to their masters as "foreign
aid" and "AID" payments.
I even convinced a couple of US companies operating
in Liberia to try this, and it looked to be having a positive effect but
then the liberals in the US helped in the overthrow of the True Whig Party
in Liberia in the name of Jacobin Democracy, and Liberia then went down its
inevitable spiral to doom.
And in fact I have never endorsed 90/10 division. I
am more inclined to 70/30. I also note that you can always degrade from a
potential. Start with a Model T and a new Mercedes M class. Don't maintain
either. Which will still be running in a couple of years?
========
Twelve Inch Miracle Tube Over Unity Water Heater
Jerry,
Jim Lyons at the University of York is quoted in the
Daily Mail newspaper as saying that outputs from this device energy exceeded
inputs by one and a half to two times. All the World's energy problems have
been solved at a stroke.
How likely is this?
John Edwards
I still want to see the secret catalyst, and
how long it lasts...
The Second Law has served us well for a
long time. Perhaps it is time t0 discard it but I want to see the experiment
replicated a few times before I do. Just as I would like to see some more
evidence before I throw out Koch's Criteria. But then I am an old
paleoconservative...
==
Two comments about EEStor, the capacitor company.
First, what they're talking about really is a
capacitor, unlike the "ultracapacitors" Maxwell has been selling for years.
Maxwell's products are basically just really fast batteries; they use a
chemical reaction. EEStor is developing something that uses electrostatic
charge, which is how capacitors work. I have no idea-- absolutely no idea--
whether EEStor's claims are physically possible or not, but I've seen
reasonably well qualified opinions in both directions.
Second, this claim about a 5-minute charge for a
500-mile automobile trip is ludicrous. Those numbers work out to a
750-kilowatt supply!
No matter where the power is coming from, there's
simply no technology known to mankind that supports connecting or switching
this kind of power in a casual consumer transaction.
I blogged about this part of EEStor's claims a little
while back:
http://blogs.cnet.com/8301-13512_1-9771053-23.html
. png
I do not believe I will ever hear "I blogged"
without flinching as the sheer ugliness of the word. But as you say, the
numbers don't work very well.
=========
Subject: Contractors?
Dr. Pournelle;
I believe I mentioned once before that the main
difference between the 400,000 GI’s that occupied Germany post WW II and the
160,000 US Troups occupying Iraq right now…is the 200,000 odd “contractors”
in country. However, I assumed those contractors were doing support
work…driving trucks, logistics, that sort of thing.
What moron thought it would be a good idea to
out-source security for the Green Zone and diplomatic travel? If there is a
military action going on, when is it a good idea to give guns to people that
don’t answer to the military authority? Who defines their “rules of
engagement”?
I am continually amazed at the flat out stupidity of
the folks at the top…and the lemming like blindness of the people that
follow them.
Don Etling
No comment.
=========
Subject: Keelhauling the Juice
Now thar's a pirate. A man responsible for
decapitating his erstwhile bride and responsible for the death of her lover,
yet naytheless evades the yardarm. And, to grind salt into the sores of his
erstwhile in-laws, he lives a life of wanton ease whilst claiming he lacks
the means to satisfy their civil judgment. A truer knave is seldom seen
(except for the daily reports of similarly depraved individuals). Nevada be
another one of them thar jurisdickthings that decided to fling offal on the
common law and enact a statute providing that first degree kidnapping
required no transport of the victim if the blackguard willfully holds or
detains a person for the purpose of robbing the victim. (See Nev. Rev.
Statutes Sec. 200.310(1)).
One is forced to contemplate how else robbery is to be
effected if one does not forcibly detain the victim whilst depriving him of
his chattel. (See Mendoza v. State, 122 Nev. Adv. Op. No. 23 (2006) for a
discussion of the problems of obtaining a dual conviction for robbery and
kidnapping). However, unlike the Circuit City hireling, The Juice was
allegedly detaining his victims whilst depriving them of their merchandise
under the apparent threat of force -- to wit robbery. Faster than you can
say Davy Jones' Locker, you've got the makings for a first degree kidnapping
charge. Now, to be sure, The Juice will be getting special attention from
the proctologist, errr prosecutor, because of his notoriety. But is this a
terrible thing Jerry?
Why, I remember but a few short moons ago when you
were bewailing the fact that the fair maid Hilton was being treated as
though she were a common wench. I understood your point to be that the
prosecutor and judge should take the accused's circumstances into account
when wielding the power of the state. Well, I think The Juice may be in for
an extra strong dose of equality. What a sad state of affairs that Sin City,
that den of inequity, will exact justice upon The Juice when our city of
angels declared him to be not guilty.
"Ravenous" Rene Daley
=========
Avast, scrivener!
Was the King's men to be clappin' me in irons, certain
I'll be wantin' the bucko who marked me with the Spot to prove who he be!
Else we turns into a land where a man gets packed up on nobbut the word of 'nonnamous
informers, no better nor the Frenchies.
Arr,
Matthew Joseph Harrington
e pur si muove
=========
Jerry,
I had a hard time finding anything by “Helen McInnis”
(sic) per your mention in today’s Current View until I tracked down the
alternate spelling “MacInnes.”
Now I’ve a new author to look forward to … thanks.
Regards,
Everett Harper
Thanks. She was the absolute master of her
kind of intrigue story.
==========
And just to nail this down:
Ultracapacitors
Jerry,
The first thing I do when I read a story like this is
get out the slide rule/calculator/ proverbial back of the envelope. Anyone
with any training in science or engineering should do the same. Sturgeon's
law is 90% of anything is crap. I should coin my own law, 90% of technology
stories are marketing BS. See Mark Twain on statistics.
Lets look at a simple calculation. Say our car has a
100 kW electric motor. A reasonable value as this is 135 horsepower,
equivalent to a mid-90's economy car. If you really pushed it (and avoided
the Poletzei) you could drive 500 miles at 80 mph in 6.25 hours. So let's
guess that we need half our horsepower to maintain our speed, and that
whatever we use for acceleration is regained by degenerative braking. That
gives us a requirement of just over 300 kWH of power. At 220 Volts you would
need a 1500 amp circuit to charge that much power in 5 minutes.
Most homes have 100 amps total, 200 amps is standard
for an all electric home. In other words, it's not the batteries that are
the limiting factor, it's the wall current. Now if these ultracapacitors can
significantly reduce the cost/watt of storing the energy that is pretty darn
important, but talking about charging time is just BS.
FYI, Tesla motors has a survey on their web site
asking folks to go out to their electrical panel, and calculate how much
reserve capacity they have. Actually what they want to know is what percent
of potential customers could legally install a 70 amp charging circuit per
the national electrical code. I believe a full charge at 70 amps 220 volts
would take 4 hours. That is just over 60 kWHs of power, and since the Tesla
Roadster has around a 200 mile range, it looks like my numbers above are
just about right (certainly pretty good for a Fermi Problem) . So far it
looks like maybe half of their potential customers could support the power
requirements.
Conclusion: any time someone says they can charge an
electric car in under an hour (and by car I mean something you could drive
from LA to Phoenix, not a glorified golf cart) they are selling snake oil.
Mark E. Horning,
Physicist, L-3 Communications Night Operations
Center of Excellence Air Force Research Lab; AFRL/HEA
TOP
CURRENT
VIEW Thursday |
