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This week: | Monday August
14, 2006
Jerry, I'm holding my judgment about last week's events until I see the long-term outcome, but I do have some comments at this point: it's clear that al Qaeda operations in Europe are taking longer to plan and are requiring more assets, especially local assets, for less outcome. That's making it harder for them to maintain operational security, so they're losing ground. Although I'm hoping al Qaeda is getting tired of playing grab-ass with real professionals and is ready to redirect their attacks at the local bean field, I'm worried about where that bean field might be located. Isn't it about time America was doing something serious to end the al Qaeda threat? As it stands, they're getting multiple swings at the ball, and anyone can hit a home run from time to time. So far America has been protected by its oceans, and hasn't been engaged seriously since 9/11, but if al Qaeda can figure out some way of getting access to North America, I have no confidence in America's ability to stop a real attack. <http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4788101.stm> <http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4787733.stm> <http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4783215.stm> <http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4787855.stm> <http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-2310645,00.html> <http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-2310625,00.html> <http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-2310626,00.html> <http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2088-2310298,00.html> <http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/crime/article1218895.ece> <http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/crime/article1218874.ece> <http://observer.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,,1843667,00.html> <http://observer.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,,1843605,00.html> <http://observer.guardian.co.uk/world/story/0,,1843666,00.html> <http://observer.guardian.co.uk/world/story/0,,1843523,00.html> The Telegraph <http://www.telegraph.co.uk/> has a story about the involvement of Islamic university students in these operations. My priest expressed some concern today about the possibility that some of ours might be involved. I doubt it, though. I stay in touch with them closely enough to be invited to their parties and weddings, and I haven't heard anything. -- Harry Erwin, PhD, Program Leader, MSc Information Systems Security, University of Sunderland. <http://scat-he-g4.sunderland.ac.uk/~harryerw> Weblog at: <http://scat-he-g4.sunderland.ac.uk/~harryerw/blog/index.php> The Bush Doctrine was supposedly to strike first; the problem is, at whom do you strike? We could have bought an awful lot of special forces and intelligence operations for $300 Billion, with a hundred 1000 Megawatt fission reactors thrown into the bargain. Would that have made more sense than the Iraqi invasion? ================== Thoughtful of the media to tell the world about acetone peroxide, wasn't it Dr. Pournelle? Now anyone can easily go to http://www.roguesci.org/megalomania/explo/acetoneperoxide.html and find out just how to make it, when most wouldn't have known about it otherwise. Charles Brumbelow I doubt they told them much they didn't know. I considered making that stuff in high school, and opted to make Nitroglycerine instead as being safer. If I could figure out how to make it in the 1940's, I suspect it's not much of a secret today. == Subject: Playing to the camera Playing to the camera? Dr. Pournelle, Here is a link to some purported Lebanese propaganda. The video was supposedly shown on German TV. Makes you wonder about the number of people who take all their news from TV. I, unfortunately, have no verification of this video but it certainly looks compromising. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4vPAkc5CLgc Terry ========== Subject: How to develop sensible polls There are a lot of us -- probably more than the number who are rabidly ant-Bush and possibly a majority -- who are not enamored of every move the Administration makes (though we don't have a consensus on what might be done better) but who disagree even more bitterly with the appeasement crowd. Is there any way we can get the pollsters to develop polls with seriously non-binary decision sets? JW Assumes a fact not in evidence: that the pollsters want an honest poll and have no agenda of their own. But I will agree, properly constructed polls would be useful. ==============
http://politicsofcp.blogspot.com/2006/08/ -- Roland Dobbins Is comment needed? ================ Subject: Regarding TSA and screening... You said: "What I do not expect is that the threat will come from American Christians, Jews, WASPS, retired generals..." Only because the old high school debater in me simply loves to play Devil's Advocate, I must note via a brief knee jerk that Mr. McVeigh was a white, ex-military, American citizen. Can't recall at the moment if he also professed to being Christian... Grin. Seriously, however, even though I truly attempt to hold views that would be considered reasonably liberal with respect to many social issues, I cannot disagree with your assessment that the current security situation is an utter mess and despite (or perhaps in spite of) the political incorrectness really must be fine-tuned to the exigencies imposed by current events. Like Mr. Dodd, I have taken to long road trips for vacations over the last two to three years, and honestly I think the entire family has been more relaxed overall in our travels as a result. There are many things that could be done to implement an acceptable level of security without forcing lipstick and laptops into the cargo holds. Similarly, there are many things that could be done from the standpoint of U.S. foreign policy to ameliorate many of the conditions that are spawning thousands of disaffected young men who fall for memes that should have been shelved several centuries ago. Note that none of the practical plans will result in a one-hundred-percent guarantee of safety, but then freedom always tends to be somewhat messy. What I worry about more than anything is that (a) most of our citizens appear to not have the wherewithal to confront the delicate decisions and trade-offs that really need to be made, and (b) most of our leaders, for any number of ideological, political, or financial reasons, appear quite unwilling to do the same. -dean Dean Riddlebarger McVeigh was after government targets, and not terror targets. He was more competent than many of the others, but not enough so to get away with it. We can make it a bit more difficult for those who want to bring down an airplane and do not mind being killed in the process. We can never prevent it entirely. On the other hand, you are safer in the airplane than in the car headed there. And were I a terrorist I would find the enormous lines at security check points very tempting. ================= Subject: we can build a democracy in Iraq It's human nature to accept the familiar without question. It's human nature to avoid examining one's own beliefs closely. In order to build a democracy in Iraq, we have to be there forcibly upholding a democracy for at least two generations (i.e., long enough for the majority of the population to have been born and raised in the democracy). Britain managed to create a democracy in India (that was a little shy of 200 years). Please note that I do not suggest that Iraq would stay in one piece even if the U.S. did not leave for two generations. The ethnic and sectarian differences make it highly likely that it would break apart (see India and Pakistan). However, the new states would stand a chance of being democracies. Britain has more experience in successfully building democratic countries than the rest of the world put together. You'd think that the current administration would have looked at the history of the British Empire as a possible example of how to go about the task of nation building. However, based on the conduct of the war in Iraq and in Afghanistan, I do not see much evidence that the administration took any lessons from the history of the British Empire. Of course, if we followed Britain's example, it would be very hard to convincingly argue that the U.S. is not an empire. Rene Daley I am not convinced that many in control have much sense of history at all. ========== Subject: The Egregious Frum ... and Lowry The neocon memory is remarkably short. Here is a recent essay by Rich Lowry that doesn't even suggest NR and its neocons were major boosters of the Iraq Attack.
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=OTExNmE3 In reading it, one would suspect that the entire plan sprang complete from the forehead of our American Zeus: it is "Bush's plan" and "Bush's misunderstanding" and "Bush's belief". Lowry comes across as a mere spectator, saddened that Bush, in his evangelical zeal, failed to see the obvious: the Arabs cannot be Democratized. L Which is why the Freeman article is important. ============ Subject: Windmills as weapons, Jerry Finally, someone has found a situation where sun- and wind-power makes sense: http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htlog/articles/20060813.aspx Of course, it has to do with the extreme expense of fuel delivered to these places. It is basically the old lesson: "God bless the child what has his own." Which then of course brings us back to energy independence. Ed ============== Subject: Citizenship for foreigners serving with the US armed forces Dr Pournelle Recently you commented that US citizenship should be made available to foreigners after 20 years of service with US armed forces. Under current law, foreigners may apply for citizenship after 3 years of military service. Foreigners take the same oath as citizens: To support and defend the Constitution of the United States of America against all enemies, foreign and domestic, and to bear true faith and allegiance to the same. By treaty, Filipinos may serve with US armed forces without risking their citizenship. Respectfully h lynn keith I understand we have such arrangements, and I really haven't thought too much about the implications. Rome chose to make career soldiers citizens on retirement (or invaliding out) which was what I was thinking of, but of course I know that the US has a different arrangement. I would myself recruit the Constabulary from candidate citizens; but confine the actual army and Marines to citizens. It would take pages to justify that, but I draw largely on Machiavelli. ============= 'Hostile Intent'.
http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB11555179 --- Roland Dobbins And indeed this kind of security makes more sense than the searches. =============== Subject: On another note from view This paragraph should be enough for context: "In a word: Fred has it right. The Administration when it went into Iraq had no freaking idea of how human beings work. What Fred doesn't understand is that a good half of the American populace has been taught political principles and citizenship by professors and high school teachers who have no freaking idea of how human beings work, or at least have none when it comes to their political preferences and policies." I am not sure very many people who are not Mohammedan understand that human beings do not all work the same. This goes for Jacobins as well as paleocons as well as anyone else. The quoted paragraph suggests some special understanding of how people work. Yet I've not noticed yet that there is an understanding that we're trying to fight people who don't give a damn if they die as a result of their actions and indeed think their actions are going to get them a short path to Heaven. They do not care if large numbers of their fellow Mohammedans die with them because "Allah will know his own." They get a short pass into Heaven. I submit that this is a VERY significant difference between Mohammedans and those of almost any other religion in the world or no religion at all. I submit that they do not respond to the stimuli of the modern world the same as you or I might respond. They hurt and bleed when cut. But their reaction is that hurt incurred fighting the infidel greases their path to heaven so it's welcomed rather than shunned. If you examine the profiles of the people involved in the British plot you'll notice that it is not the ethnics of the situation that matter. It is the religion. Indeed, most "Arabs" or "Rag Heads" or pejorative du jour are Mohammedans. However, it is a serious lapse if we do not pay attention to "who is Mohammedan" as much as "who is 'du jour'". As a case in point note that Abdul Waheed was formerly Don Stewart-White six months ago. He grew up as the son of a Conservative Party official. And he has a sister who is a supermodel. He also left a martyrdom video. He is VERY positively not Arab, Persian, or anything other than British turned Mohammedan and astoundingly quickly radicalized. See this site for details courtesy of Ace: http://ace.mu.nu/archives/190401.php Given what it appears we are facing are we going to be able to combat this evil using "mere" "Western" tools? Are our laws and ethics going to allow us to successfully combat this religion of thuggery, at least in the hands of radical mullahs who teach the Koran as it is written without "interpretation?" (I've long been suggesting friends visit this site and read as long as your stomach can take it. http://www.usc.edu/dept/MSA/quran/ I've read about as much as I can stand, the first few chapters and a large pieces of the rest of the book. It gets grimmer the further into it you get. Jerry, if you remember a Lutheran friend of ours from BIX, "vanhorn", his daughter married a Mohammedan and converted. He's been reading it, too. And he is starting to sound more like me than the Van of old.) (And note: I use Mohammedan very specifically, not with any intended insult. They are followers of the teachings Mohammed transcribed. They insist on being called "Muslim". That word simply means "submissive". And I submit that I know Christians, good gentle Christians, who are at least as submissive to God as any Mohammedan is to Allah. And given the derivation of the Mohammedan religion God and Allah are two different designations for the same entity.) {^_^} Joanne Dow == No bare shoulders for passports in England because they might offend? Hello? Sue http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/08/14/npassport14.xml
Liberalism is a philosophy of consolation for Western Civilization as it commits suicide. And John Stuart Mill revolves in his grave. ========== Subject: Media fraud expose' video Dr. Pournelle, You really need to see this. It's a news report exposing a large number of outright fradulent manipulation of images coming from Lebanon. http://www.metacafe.com/watch/209315/photo_fraud_changes_war_perceptions/ This is the best reporting on this I've seen, pointing out about a dozen fraudulent photos and stories. Sean This is a critical part of the war. ================== On another subject from another conference: Subject: Harvard Study Finds Advantages for Private-School Students
In Japan, since compulsory education is only thru middle school, **all** high schools have entrance exams. There is a food chain of high schools for those who don't have the horsepower for the best. However, vocational high schools are pretty well funded. Steve Note that last. Vocational schools teach skills. For many skills are the proper form of learning. Not all students need world class college preparation education. This is not Lake Woebegon. Half of the students are below average. Half of the students are below average. Half of the students are below average. =========================
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This week: | Tuesday,
August 15, 2006 Begin with mail concerning the Lebanese War and Cease Fire: RE: Monday Mail You own it – if you’ve turned it into Trinitite. This situation might come to that yet. Israel made many mistakes here. Having decided to fight back, they should have really fought back – and leveled, preferably by conventional means, everything that would have made southern Lebanon habitable. No inhabitants, no human shield and anyone in that area is fair game, and no rockets fly. But they didn’t. We’ll all be paying for that by and by. Including all of Islam, after the first mushroom cloud rises somewhere in the West. Regarding the revelation of the explosive recipe; so what? Much better recipes, including Sarin, are floating around on the Net. And it was a common observation, when I was studying chemistry in the late 70s, that if you couldn’t blast open the building you were sitting in you were a pretty poor chemist. As it happens, I was creating, for fun, thermite when I was 15. Regards, Ian Campbell One view. Scorched earth in Southern Lebanon. == Why Israel Lost. http://www.tcsdaily.com/Article.aspx?id=081406G - Roland Dobbins Which lays out a number of reasons for the conclusion; and refers to
http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolumnists/lessons
which Joel Rosenberg also referenced in the note I quoted yesterday. Now of course This shouldn't surprise anyone. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/08/15/wmid15.xml Quote from the piece. ---------- In a garden next to a junction used as an outpost by Hizbollah lay eight Kornet anti-tank rockets, described by Brig Mickey Edelstein, the commander of the Nahal troops who took Ghandouriyeh, as "some of the best in the world". Written underneath a contract number on each casing were the words: "Customer: Ministry of Defence of Syria. Supplier: KBP, Tula, Russia." John and probably doesn't. For another view: Subject: Hezbollah won? So everyone agrees that Hezbollah won. Just how dumb is the Arab street? Do they huddle in the bazaars and relish the victory of Hezbollah? Do they do this in Lebanon? In the end, Hezbollah did Israel a small hurt, and Lebanon got a lot of damage to their country as well as their prospects of future stability. And who exactly is responsible for unleashing the military might of the Israelis? When the smoke clears, and the Lebanese look at their damaged buildings, they will hate Israel, but the next morning will they love Hezbollah? Will Hezbollah then get money from Iran, like they got the missiles they fired at Israel, and rebuild the towns and cities that the Israelis destroyed. Will the international community want to send aid to rebuild Lebanon with the prospect of Hezbollah doing something incredibly stupid again and the Israelis breaking things again? The war may have set back relations between Israel and its neighbors; it certainly made its neighbors more wary. But exactly how does this make Hezbollah a hero in Jordan or Egypt, where relations with the Israelis are more pacific? Someone explain what the long term benefits to Hezbollah are when viewed by any neighbor who wants peace and good trade. What does the Lebanese civilian do when Hezbollah again moves in a rocket launcher next door? Charles Simkins My guess is that the civilian cheers. The cheer may be a bit forced, but the alternative would be worse. Hizbollah won because it will continue to exist, continue to patrol the streets, continue to be the de facto government of much of Lebanon; and the cost to Hizbollah was low. A thousand martyrs is a low price to them. An alternate plan What would happen if an non-state entity systematically assassinated every Islamofascist leader over 35? Would that send the right message? If their leaders cried “Uncle”, would the true believers turn on their leaders out of shame and humiliation over the revelation that their religion is nothing but a death cult—unless as a leader of same you’re old enough to be comfortable in your present living circumstances as an “Imam”? But what entity would have the courage to do so? Best regards, And on that subject: Letters of marque and reprisal in the modern world Dr Pournelle Article I, Section 8 of the Constitution gives Congress the power to " grant letters of marque and reprisal, and make rules concerning captures on land and water". In 1856 the major European powers entered into a treaty that prohibited further issuance of letters of marque and reprisal. (The terms "marque" and "reprisal" are used in their archaic sense: "marque" being an old French term for border and meaning empowered to cross borders; "reprisal" meaning to take prizes.) The United States never signed the treaty but abandoned the practice anyway. Recently there have been some aborted attempts in Congress to revive the practice against terrorists. I say, "Why not?" Let private citizens expend their funds and efforts to seize terrorist funds. Write the law and command the administering agency to promulgate implementing regulations iteratively. Based on history, I am persuaded that private parties can adapt to changing conditions much, much more quickly than gov't bureaucracies. Respectfully So that the property of terrorists becomes lawful prizes for those who can take them. Privateers... Poul Anderson made some use of this in his novel Star Fox George Will weighs in: Will: The Triumph of Unrealism. from
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/ -----
- Roland Dobbins As I have said before, $300 Billion Dollars buys a lot of intelligence, energy sources, mass migration and law enforcement, border security... Of course it is all part of a war in another theater: In the Post Vietnam era today's wars are fought as much in the media as on the battlefield. Those who study such things call it "Asymmetrical Warfare." The Western nation states are NOT doing well in this media war. Here are two examples: 1. Why don't they connect the dots? The attacks in the US are not unrelated, but are part of Islamic Fascism. The most recent attack was right here in the Pacific NW. See:
2. Why isn't false media reporting exposed by the media itself? An example was the recent conflict in Lebanon. Too many media reports have been stage managed. The work isn't up to Hollywood standards, but the Media is strangely silent about obvious fraud by their colleagues. See: Subject: Photo Fraud in Lebanon http://www.aish.com/movies/PhotoFraud.asp I know many reporters are honest, professional, and hard working, and I welcome comments by my friends in the media. To me, neither political party has done well at preventing or containing Islamic Fascism. For ten years, we did nothing, and that didn't work. For five years, we've been aggressive, and that's not worked very well either. I welcome a public dialog that shapes better answers and it disturbs me that distorted and false pictures are being constantly reported to misshape world opinion. What am I missing here? Best, John D. Trudel And Subject: RE: What would happen if an non-state entity systematically assassinated every Islamofascist leader over 35? Jerry, I wrote my earlier message for shock value. Israel “lost” in Lebanon in the eyes of the press because its victory cannot be called decisive. Wars cannot be fought using “Politically Correct” rules. Unless we can stomach inflicting multiple Dresden-like attacks--multiple torchings similar to that inflicted on Tokyo--we cannot expect our enemies to behave as though they are utterly defeated. I cannot help but think that the elders of Islam are entirely content sending their youth to fight and die while they luxuriate in silks and fineries of all sorts paid for by western treasure for oil. To achieve victory, we must exact a punishment that shows the Islamofascist leadership and populace that their present course has a heavy price—heavier than Israel has exacted, a price that should be exacted from Tunis to the Philippines, with a suspension of habeas corpus and infinite imprisonment for Islamofascists wherever they are found around the world—something that shows the Islamofascists that the battle is truly joined, and that their jihad cannot be won against 21st century civilization and all its terrible might. I doubt our leaders in this moment. I wish for the second coming of the equal of Churchill, with his wisdom, his courage in the face of overwhelming odds, and his ability to rally the people against the howls of the defeatists and the appeasers. We cannot pull our heads in, like 300 million turtles, and hope for the best. Build the reactors, pilot the coal gasification plants, drill in the US in any promising areas; and yes, let the aftermath be that the lovers of the 7th century are left to their desert hovels, impotent in their inability to build a single useful thing except a vessel of death—and especially let there be no doubt in their minds that the words “Don’t tread on me.” still ring true now as then. When Churchill sat thinking of the breadth of Nazi power as Hitler stood on the outskirts of Stalingrad and the shores of France, of imperial Japan poised to overcome China, of the advances of the Afrika Corps and Italy in North Africa and even the conquest of Norway and Finland, he must have wondered if enough power could be mustered to defeat all the evil in the world. We don’t have to wonder; we have the power. We must decide whether we lack the will or not. Best regards, Jim Floyd You all may recall that I advocated monuments after 9/11: in every city where they danced in the streets in joy, we create in the central part of the city an area of rubble the size and shape of Ground Zero. And keep it that way: attempts to rebuild will be met with bouncing rubble. I was told that was too severe and heartless. It almost certainly would have been insufficient, but coupled with border security and steps toward energy independence would it have been at least as effective in keeping the US safe as what we have done? As a response to the kidnapping of two civilians, the Israeli actions of destroying civil society in Lebanon and ending the Cedar Revolution was disproportionately severe; as an action to end Hizbollah's domination of Lebanon, it was too small; and showed that a few hundred casualties is too high a price. If Israel had acted this way in the formation wars, there would be no Israel. That is my view. I wish Israel well. I spent too little time in the company of then President Weizmann, but we agreed on many matters. I see few like him in the current leadership. ============ Modern Science Fiction: Cyberpunk The scarlet 'I'. http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/08/14/news/korea.php - Roland Dobbins
== More science fiction in reality: Subject: The Neighborhood War Zone, Jerry This piece makes me re-think some of my long-held beliefs:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/ Robert Heinlein posited a society of people who were civilized because they were armed in "Beyond this Horizon" (http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0743435613/). It certainly sounded good. People were polite because if they were not, they would have to defend their actions with their lives. But what happens when the less-civilized people in our society take up this aspect of culture? They are armed, and ready to avenge any slight with a bullet in the back, not a face-to-face duel. "The Marching Morons" was scary enough. But The Marching Morons with guns? Brrr. Ed Barbarians at the gates are frightening, but in today's world the barbarians are within the gates. We have often thought that "an armed society is a polite society", but it depends on the society, doesn't it? Can civilization survive barbarians within the gates? Of course it will, but at what cost? We may be sure a Caesar will arise. But who will follow him? Augustus? And who will follow Augustus? Someone long ago said, Freedom is not free, free men are not equal, and equal men are not free. ============ Active Security and Security Theater: Subject: Bruce Schneier's Comments <http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2006/08/terrorism_secur.html> He discusses the difference between effective security and security theater. As long as we rely on security theater, we'll be vulnerable to the first terrorist thinking outside *our* box. -- Harry Erwin, PhD, Program Leader, MSc Information Systems Security, University of Sunderland. <http://scat-he-g4.sunderland.ac.uk/~harryerw> Weblog at: <http://scat-he-g4.sunderland.ac.uk/~harryerw/blog/index.php> As any fool can plainly see... ============= And now for something completely different: Subject: David Copperfield says he's found Fountain of Youth - Yahoo! News Stay tuned for more Bahama Weirdness! Petronius http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060815/od_uk_nm/oukoe_uk_copperfield And meanwhile he owns the islands... ============ Subject: BBC: "Crime spike hits Katrina evacuees" One has to admire the commitment to political correctness that leads to such deceptive writing. Jim I hope my home town has learned its lesson and the next time levees break in New Orleans we will have the Texas National Guard seal the border between Texas and Louisiana.
Astonishing. Take 150,000 people from the most corrupt and least law abiding city in the country, move them elsewhere, and you expect? ============ Subject: ] BBC: Germany hits new birth rate low These statistics would be even scarier if they distinguished between taxpaying class and poverty class births. Jim http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4793997.stm
Liberalism is a philosophy of consolation for Western Civilization as it commits suicide. Soon enough many First World countries will not have enough productive citizens to sustain a first world economy. The results are predictable. Work the able until they give that up. Then And not unrelated: Subject: ACT gaining on the SAT Another factor going on is demographic. Colleges are having problems finding butts to put in all their seats, so they are dropping requirements that are barriers to prospective students becoming their "customers". Jim
And as they fill the seats, the quality of education plummets. When people insist it's not about the money, it's about the money. (and see below) Also not unrelated:
Liberalism is -- well, you know.
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This week: |
Wednesday,
August 16, 2006 Dobbs: It's good to be a superpower.
http://www.cnn.com/2006/US/08/15/ -- Roland Dobbins
But economists will tell you this is all wonderful. Of course we are living off borrowed money, but that's all right. We'll borrow enough money to get completely out of debt. ============== From the Wall St. Journal:
============================= Subject: J. Mathew's letter re SAT/ACT Jerry: I write as one who has taken the "old, old" SAT's, the ACT, and the "Iowa tests" that preceeded those. First, I regard the analogy material as bewildering only to those with an inferior understanding of the language. Isn't mastery of that language the very item that the verbal SATs are supposed to measure, and doesn't such a measurement require some kind of ranking mechanism to be valid? The SATs I took _did_ include an "essay writing" section. It was part of the optional Reading Comprehension section. Having taken the "Iowa" and ACT tests many times beginning in the late 1950's, and the full SATs twice (1966, 1967), my clear recollection is that the SATs were by far the more (legitimately) challenging of the two test sets. Students emerge from the test exhausted? Considering that the test results may have an influence on students' future lives equivalent to the transcripts from >12,000 hours of study, I find that complaint amusing. I strongly suspect that the switch to the ACT, which is clearly "on", to be an extreme example of "grading on the curve", i.e. massaging results to validate the desired outcome, for the purpose of finding nonexistent value in the educational system, aided and abetted by the teachers' and administrators' unions and their lackeys in the media. -Scott ========== Subject: Branches of Service I just read http://www.jerrypournelle.com/alt.mail/infantry.html for the first time. I think you and your correspondents might have missed some issues. Cavalry still exists, mounted in helicopters. Helicopters and helicopter-mounted troops are the normal forces deployed for a reconnaissance in force, the classic mission of historic cavalry. In the first US-Iraq war, the Chinese were astonished at the speed of the U.S. attack. They concluded that mostly helicopters fought the U.S. side of the war, with mop-up by armor moving at "only" 50kph. Much of the direction from CENTCOM to the armor was along the lines of "please move faster, you're behind the line." Helicopters were actually fighting the forward edge of battle. This situation first began to change in the Vietnam War. Helicopter-mounted troops saw nearly forty times as many hours of shooting-war per deployment-month as conventional troops in World War II. They're something very like dragoons. I think the air-force has a role. Strategic forces are a historically new type of clearly military force. I'd argue that strategic forces' missions are sufficiently different that boomers should be reassigned from the navy to the strategic forces. The Navy does these missions, "CAN DO," but it's a cultural stretch from conventional surface warfare. Ask your son. I agree that the bomber stuff is obsolete. Even fighters, now that forward-deployed UAVs can out-fight manned fighters. Most should be removed from the inventory. Manned platforms are flexible, so a few should be kept, dispersed among the other forces. The U.S. aerospace force mix is clearly wrong for fighting imperial-style wars. We need an efficient, low-altitude fixed-wing light bomber, something like the OV-10A Bronco. In modern swarm tactics, it could orbit slowly over the battlefield, and be johnny-on-the-spot with large amounts of precision-guided munitions to support ground forces. Like a helicopter it would depend on air-superiority, but once that's achieved it would stay overhead longer and cheaper than either helicopters or a heavy antiarmor platform such as the A-10 Warthog. The Air-Force never has understood ground-support, and consequently never did understand ground support of light infantry and counter-insurgency forces, which is even more tenderly helpful. That's why the USAF designated the Bronco an "Observer" craft, and decommissioned it ASAP, while the Marines kept it in service until budget cuts in the 1990s. The Warthog is a lovely creature of its type, but like the standard U.S. heavy infantry division, it's far too precisely designed for a nuclear battlefield filled with heavy armor. As for your correspondent's desire for a medium-range light-artillery weapon, I personally still mourn for the fiber-optic-guided missile: http://www.designation-systems.net/dusrm/m-157.html , which is pretty-much designed for that mission. It's a precision-guided-munition controlled directly by the ground commander... Right now the U.S. really has no good way for infantry to shoot fast armor, GEVs, helicopters and bunker holes. Ray Think of air cavalry as light infantry. So long as the Air Force owns the field army support mission, there will never be adequate air support of the field army. No pilot wants to opt for close air support; it's a career killer. =========== Subject: This is what we are fighting and what we shall become under Mohammedan rule http://www.americanthinker.com/articles.php?article_id=5764 http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/ReadArticle.asp?ID=4857 and somewhat more than a few words about dhimmitude by a world renowned scholar on the subject: http://www.dhimmitude.org I hope our liberals like this idea. It's what they'll get if they persist in thinking it is not the religion itself leading to the current problems. Joanne Dow {^_^} ============= Subject: When with the targeting shift? Jerry, One of the things that surprises me a little is the continued obession that Al Qaeda and Al Qaeda clones seem to have with spectacular airplane attacks. Maybe the attention that 9/11 drew was just too good to let pass without a second try. But it seems like they could produce equally disruptive effects on our society with more frequent, less spectacular attacks against less protected targets. Just look what John Allen Mohammed did in the Washington, D.C. area with only a rifle and a jury rigged shooting platform in the trunk of his car. Coffee shops, buses, and the like have been more than adequate targets for the terrorists at war with Israel. Not that I wish to encourage this kind of creative thinking on the part of our enemy, but I do keep wondering when/if this kind of persistent, smaller scale terrorism will visit us here? CP, Connecticut One does wonder. Those huge compact crowds of people in airport security lines, as an example... I am sure this has been discussed before. One does hesitate to point to obvious targets. =============== Subject: Designing the new moon mission by studying Apollo hardware in museums Jerry, Sigh. This shouldn't surprise me, but what a commentary on where the manned space program is these days.
http://www.charter.net/news/read.php?ps=969&id= Well, they can do worse than copy the Apollo designs. My father in law worked on the Saturn first stage, and those guys did it right. His main comment on the effort was that -everyone- simply said, "It isn't going to fail because of MY part." He had two heart attacks during those years, clearly attributable to the stress. If you ever view Saturn ascent films, you'll doubtless notice that when the F1 engines light, they swivel as the thrust comes up. Among other things, Frank designed the gimbals for those engines...the largest ever built. It is a shame and a waste that NASA had to wait until nearly all of that talent pool is no longer with us. The accomplishments were incredible, and even more incredible for the times. Chuck The Iron Law has long ago prevailed in NASA =========== Subject: weirdness Dr. Pournelle: The StarTribune (Minneapolis-St. Paul) reports today that an urban legend, the $5 rapist, has been circulating in the area. (Supposedly a man holds up a $5 bill to a woman in a car, tells her she dropped it, and when she rolls down the window . . . ) Last year, a music professor at a small religiously oriented college in outstate Minnesota was arrested on charges of possession of child pornography. Child porn was found on his computer, and his credit card number was found on a porn website. The common thread: the credit card number was found by Homeland Security, which also called the police about the $5 rapist, even though this story is an Internet hoax at least three years old, and probably much older as an urban myth. So why is Homeland Security concerned? Despicable as child porn is, neither possessors of child porn nor $5 rapists can be true security threats unless they're also Islamofascists. One police officer was quoted by the paper as saying, "This is weird. Aren't they supposed to be catching terrorists or something?" j (I'm concerned enough about Homeland Security that I'd like to ask you to publish neither name nor ID. I know a Lutheran pastor who has an FBI file, because (gasp!) she studied Russian as an undergraduate.) And was the web site where the credit card number was found one that dispensed child pornography in the first place? I doubt that anyone can be absolutely certain that there are no illegal images on his hard drive. While I have never given a credit card number to a pornographic web site, and I don't follow links from that kind of spam, I have subscribed to several gaming strategy web sites, some of which may have dubious connections. I think my ports are closed and my systems secure, but who can be sure? We engage in security theatre, and the Iron Law says that Homeland Security will attract many people with their own agendas unrelated to actual homeland security. Eternal vigilance is a price we no longer are willing to pay, and liberty is the loser; but we shall have Liberté, égalité, fraternité . We sow the wind. ============== Bush, over a period of years, seems to have thought that one of the most important things, maybe the most important thing, is to have an Iraqi government in place that publicly expresses gratitude for our invasion. More importantly, that whether the Iraqis have jobs, or electricity, whether they got oil production going, more important than anything. I wonder why. Gregory Cochran P.S. This review is worth reading.
by the way, the 10,000 number for the size of the Shi'ite crowd cited in the following article is almost certainly wrong. Much larger in reality. today. in the NYTimes:
I too have wondered why our goals in Iraq have been so odd. I would myself have set $20/bbl oil as the goal. Pump Iraqi oil and pump a lot of it; spend what it takes to make that happen. The Iraqis get the oil money, which should be enough to bribe off most opposition and build a working economy in which people are so busy getting rich that they have little patience for those throwing bombs; and the US gets a DOW at 14,000 or so due to the low cost of energy. I actually thought that was the goal of the invasion. I have read Bremer's book and it is clear from the first 50 pages that no one -- NO ONE -- in the administration had a clue as to the size of task they had taken on, or what they ought to do first once Chalabi wasn't welcomed back with flowers and parades. I never wanted in there to begin with; but had they gone in and got the oil pumping I probably would have concluded that it was worth it (depending on the side effects). Instead, they just went in, disbanded the Iraqi security apparatus, and let the looting times roll. By the time they figured out that this wasn't a great idea, it was a bit late. You break it, you own it... ============= A highly reliable source says: > ...somebody who's actually studying this sort of thing weighs in with
Uh, no. He's confused. It's quite easy to make acetone peroxide using drugstore 3% peroxide, although of course the yield per volume is much lower. There's also no need for concentrated sulfuric acid. The acid merely catalyzes the reaction, and any dilute mineral acid serves the purpose. I know, because many years ago as a teenager I made small quantities of acetone peroxide to use for making crackers. Ordinarily, the problem would be that the reaction produces a mix, in order of decreasing stability, of the trimer, dimer, and monomer. At room temperature and neutral or slightly acidic pH, the least stable monomeric form predominates. With the reaction vessel refrigerated and at lower pH, the most stable trimeric form predominates, although even the trimer is less stable than nitroglycerine. Of course if your goal is to blow up an airliner, you don't really care about the isomer mix. Just sign me a former organic chemist If you want to bring down an airplane, you do care about being able to make enough to do real damage before it blows up and kills you. Again my memories are fifty years old; but we concluded, with minimal experimentation, that it wasn't possible to make stable quantities of the stuff with any degree of safety; and mind you, I had made a fairly hefty quantity of nitroglycerine using ceramic chilled vessels and lots of dry ice. But I was probably more cautious after the humorously disastrous results of my nitro experiment, and anyway we were in a city not out in Capleville by then. In any event we decided not to do any real experiments with the stuff. It does appear my first reaction as wrong: this was not merely a dangerous plot, but one that had a chance of doing serious damage. The problem with security theater is that once one sees it is mostly theater, one is reluctant to believe it when there really is a wolf. This time the wolf was at least half grown and had some whiskers. PS: Incidentally, someone mentioned the other day that it was the monomer that was used in the London bombings, which would account for the premature detonation. -- Former chemist =========== Everything old is new again. Of course, they're too stupid to realize that using SRBs on a manned vehicle is a huge mistake. While they're studying history, someone should show them a clip of 51-L. http://www.physorg.com/news74786119.html -- Roland Dobbins =========== Subject: Dr. Cochran's remarks on bush wanting America to be thanked Jerry, While it should not have been the only goal, securing sincere thanks to the American people for spending 100's of billions of dollars of their treasury and 1000's of their young people's lives seems like a reasonable beginning. Phil |
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August 17, 2006 ========== Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureaucracy, Part XXXVII.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/ -- Roland Dobbins No surprises here... A lawyer bureaucracy. Guess what... == One hour.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/ - Roland Dobbins Nor here. The Iron Law is in good shape... ======== Subject: Sarcasm alert
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?apage= "The [IDF] destroyed 90 percent of Hizbullah's long range missiles," said Halutz. "We knew what they were capable of... although we did not predict that they would fire thousands - 4,000 - rockets at Israel." Ah yeah, they destroyed 90% by getting Hizbullah to fire them at Israel. I don't think that quite counts, eh? {+_+} ============ Subject: Comment on Armed Society Dr. Pournelle: Regarding the exchange below, in Heinlein's "Beyond This Horizon" the armed society was very different than the inner cities of America. In today's inner-city war zones, it is usually only the criminals and gang bangers that are armed. The average citizen is denied the bearing of arms, not by the gangs, but by his own government. Only if the citizen is willing to break the law can he arm himself for self defense. An armed society is a polite society if all free men (and women) are allowed to be armed. When only the criminals and police are armed, you get Washington D.C. and Philadelphia. I would point to the real American West (not the "Wild West" of the dime novels and Hollywood) for an example of how things can work. Historians will tell you that crime rates were very low, including the homicide rate. With a population of armed Civil War veterans in many frontier towns, there was little tolerance for crime. (See, i.e., the the James/Younger gangs fiasco in Northfield, Minnesota). What we need to get back is that sense of community -- the good guys willing to stand up to the bad guys. I am not sure how to do that, but disarming the population is not the answer. Lee Indeed, but it is always the first proposed "solution". Perhaps there are times when it is proper. But see Campbell on Tribesmen, Barbarians, and Citizens. ============= Subj: WEAPONS: The Lieutenants Friend http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htweap/articles/20060817.aspx =The new GoBook XR-1 is what young infantry officers are going to be lusting after in the next few months. At 6.8 pounds, it is resistant to water, sand and multiple three foot drops on hard surfaces. It's also protected against the relentless vibrations found in military vehicles and aircraft. It will survive temperature extremes (from -10 degrees to 140 degrees Fahrenheit). It has a glow-in-the-dark keyboard, and a 12.1 inch color display designed to be visible in bright sunlight. It's small (12x10x2 inches) and powerful (1.87 GHz Intel Core Duo CPU, using up to two gigabytes of RAM). The removable SATA hard drive (80 gigabytes and up) has a built in heater, to insure quick boot in very cold weather. ...= http://www.gd-computing.com/index.cfm?page=Products:XR-1&locale=en_US ITRONIX: Mission Critical Computing On the Move Rod Montgomery==monty@sprintmail.com
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August 17, 2006 AAAS no more. http://americanthinker.com/articles.php?article_id=5770 -- Roland Dobbins And science is very much the loser. ========= Three cheers for RyanAir! http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/5261908.stm -- Roland Dobbins Huzzah! =========== Why go to war if you don't intend to fight?
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1154525886888& - Roland Dobbins Close to what we said all along. Alas. ============ Subject: Re: Wiretap ruling affirms that presidents aren't monarchs (USA Today) USA Today wrote:
Okay, so let me get this straight: We can't say the program is constitutional just because the administration says it is. But we can say the program is unconstitutional just because some left-wing judge in Detroit says it is. That's exactly the sort of reasoning I expect from USA Today. (Personally I think the program is unconstitutional, but I don't think that opinion ought to sway anyone. Neither does the Bush administration claim that we should just take its word as law. The administration has its legal arguments, the ACLU and others have their legal arguments, and everyone will get a chance to give their arguments before the US Supreme Court. Then we'll roll the dice and see what happens. All this preliminary crap is useless.) . png In any Constitutional Crisis, the Congress is supposed to prevail. That's the way it was set up. Congress can impeach any officers, judicial or executive. Which is one reason the executive and judiciary will work together to undermine legislative independence and why the Jefferson case was important. ========= Jerry: Heh. Thursday, Aug 17th's li'l blurb about the Go-Book caught my retired Seismic Surveyor's eye. Folks, -10°F, to +140°F, temperature 'operating range', just will not cut it, even within the Lower 48! Go to more exotic climes, such as the North Slope of Alaska, or the High Arctic Islands of Canada, and -65°F is a likely working Winter air temperature. Wearing the silvery-looking, stretchy gloves, inside 'Green Ape' cotton work gloves, means being able to cope with 15 or twenty minutes of hand-use on Survey Instrument and handling pencil & Surveyor's notebook, before yanking-off the Green Apes, and shoving shivering silvery gloved hands inside the nice warm Arctic Gauntlets! I even learned how to operate the Survey Instrument, and to write legibly, whilst wearing those same Arctic Gauntlets. Since they were War Surplus, they may even be a residue of Vladimir Stephanson's WWII designs, of Winter outdoor wear, for the US Army. Secondarily, the _Display_, if a Liquid Crystal, needs must be 'doped' with Ether, to keep it from freezing. Check with Wild Heerbrug, in Switzerland, who finally came to know that their equipment was going to be required to work at much colder than the minus 20°F (iirc), that they had put into the Software of their EDMs! The things had their very own temperature sensor, so as to be able to apply the Curvature & Refraction Corrections, correctly, to on-board 'Difference of Elevation' calculations, for each Distance Reading done. Yes, the EDM would not only refuse to work at Cold Temperatures, it would even bitch about being too cold! Canadian Seismic Surveyors, already somewhat grumpy about having to work in cool weather, got _very_ sarcastic about the silk-pantied Swiss Surveyors, who were too delicate to work when it was cold! Grin. The HP41CX is another example of a very rugged device, with a Liquid Crystal display. I have had it sitting on the giant baggy that held my 2.5ft x 3ft map, calculating a Sunshot, at -40° (C, or F, same, same), withjout any hiccups. Its built-in, very accurate Clock, made the Data-collecting Program a most convenient way to 'do' a Sunshot, since the Data-reduction Program had access to all the numbers. A hint, for those who are yet to enjoy the cold: Bring alond a new, unsharpened wooden pencil, because the eraser end is perfect for pushing buttons, while wearing gauntlets. Regards, Neil Frandsen ============ Subject: Schneier Podcast Worth listening to. <http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2006/08/network_securit.html> -- Harry Erwin, PhD, Program Leader, MSc Information Systems Security, University of Sunderland. <http://scat-he-g4.sunderland.ac.uk/~harryerw> Weblog at: <http://scat-he-g4.sunderland.ac.uk/~harryerw/blog/index.php> ============ Subject: Jill Carroll's story.... If there is ANYBODY not reading Jill Carroll's story at the Christian Science Monitor get over there fast before it has any hint of going away. Inside the story of her ordeal and her parent's ordeal are bits of every day Iraqi life for women. In one place it details a feast celebrating her kidnapping with all sorts of expensive (in Iraq) foods. The men ate. The dishes returned to the kitchen with bones gnawed clean. The women ate what they could find off the men's plates. Is THIS the kind of people we want to let have even a miniscule particle of a say in how we live our lives? I've no problem with them being a little what I perceive as "goofy in the head" on their own turf as long as they abide by secular law and make no demands that it be changed to allow Sharia law. But they are so extreme they just basically scare me spitless thinking of them "running" America based on their terrorism. WE tolerate absurd depictions of Christ without ever demanding that the authors or artists be murdered. They don't. So we run cowed by their threat? Color me pissed at that cowardice on the part of our media and our government. http://www.csmonitor.com/specials/carroll/index.html {^_^} Joanne ============ Subject: Minority Students Decline in Top New York Schools, http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/18/education/18schools.html
Given the known disparities in IQ scores, are we surprised? The entrance exam is essentially an IQ test. The above numbers occur despite desperate attempts to prepare Hispanic and black students for the entrance exam. How politically incorrect of you! Voodoo science has no explanation; but real science predicts such results. Of course the official view in these United States of America is the Voodoo Science explanation. And so it goes. ============ Subject: Re: BBC: "Crime spike hits Katrina evacuees" I particularly liked the equivalence expressed in the lines below; killer and killee are both victims.
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========== I post the following without comment: The Global Islamic population is approximately 1,200,000,000, or 20% of the world population. [Source unknown.] They have received the following Nobel Prizes: Literature: 1988 - Najib Mahfooz.Peace: 1978 - Mohamed Anwar El-Sadat 1994 - Yaser ArafatPhysics: 1990 - Elias James Corey 1999 - Ahmed ZewailMedicine: 1960 - Peter Brian Medawar 1998 - Ferid Mourad The Global Jewish population is approximately 14,000,000, or about 0.02% of the world population. They have received the following Nobel Prizes: Literature: 1910 - Paul Heyse 1927 - Henri Bergson 1958 - Boris Pasternak 1966 - Shmuel Yosef Agnon 1966 - Nelly Sachs 1976 - Saul Bellow 1978 - Isaac Bashevis Singer 1981 - Elias Canetti 1987 - Joseph Brodsky 1991 - Nadine Gordimer WorldPeace: 1911 - Alfred Fried 1911 - Tobias Michael Carel Asser 1968 - Rene Cassin 1973 - Henry Kissinger 1978 - Menachem Begin 1986 - Elie Wiesel 1994 - Shimon Peres 1994 - Yitzhak RabinPhysics: 1905 - Adolph Von Baeyer 1906 - Henri Moissan 1907 - Albert Abraham Michelson 1908 - Gabriel Lippmann 1910 - Otto Wallach 1915 - Richard Willstaetter 1918 - Fritz Haber 1921 - Albert Einstein 1922 - Niels Bohr 1925 - James Franck 1925 - Gustav Hertz 1943 - Gustav Stern 1943 - George Charles de Hevesy 1944 - Isidor Issac Rabi 1952 - Felix Bloch 1954 - Max Born 1958 - Igor Tamm 1959 - Emilio Segre 1960 - Donald A. Glaser 1961 - Robert Hofstadter 1961 - Melvin Calvin 1962 - Lev Davidovich Landau 1962 - Max Ferdinand Perutz 1965 - Richard Phillips Feynman 1965 - Julian Schwinger 1969 - Murray Gell-Mann 1971 - Dennis Gabor 1972 - William Howard Stein 1973 - Brian David Josephson 1975 - Benjamin Mottleson 1976 - Burton Richter 1977 - Ilya Prigogine 1978 - Arno Allan Penzias 1978 - Peter L. Kapitza 1979 - Stephen Weinberg 1979 - Sheldon Glashow 1979 - Herbert Charles Brown 1980 - Paul Berg 1980 - Walter Gilbert 1981 - Roald Hoffmann 1982 - Aaron Klug 1985 - Albert A. Hauptman 1985 - Jerome Karle 1986 - Dudley R. Herschbach 1988 - Robert Huber 1988 - Leon Lederman 1988 - Melvin Schwartz 1988 - Jack Steinberger 1989 - Sidney Altman 1990 - Jerome Friedman 1992 - Rudolph Marcus 1995 - Martin Perl 2000 - Alan J. HeegerEconomics: 1970 - Paul Anthony Samuelson 1971 - Simon Kuznets 1972 - Kenneth Joseph Arrow 1975 - Leonid Kantorovich 1976 - Milton Friedman 1978 - Herbert A. Simon 1980 - Lawrence Robert Klein 1985 - Franco Modigliani 1987 - Robert M. Solow 1990 - Harry Markowitz 1990 - Merton Miller 1992 - Gary Becker 1993 - Robert FogelMedicine: 1908 - Elie Metchnikoff 1908 - Paul Erlich 1914 - Robert Barany 1922 - Otto Meyerhof 1930 - Karl Landsteiner 1931 - Otto Warburg 1936 - Otto Loewi 1944 - Joseph Erlanger 1944 - Herbert Spencer Gasser 1945 - Ernst Boris Chain 1946 - Hermann Joseph Muller 1950 - Tadeus Reichstein 1952 - Selman Abraham Waksman 1953 - Hans Krebs 1953 - Fritz Albert Lipmann 1958 - Joshua Lederberg 1959 - Arthur Kornberg 1964 - Konrad Bloch 1965 - Francois Jacob 1965 - Andre Lwoff 1967 - George Wald 1968 - Marshall W. Nirenberg 1969 - Salvador Luria 1970 - Julius Axelrod 1970 - Sir Bernard Katz 1972 - Gerald Maurice Edelman 1975 - Howard Martin Temin 1976 - Baruch S. Blumberg 1977 - Roselyn Sussman Yalow 1978 - Daniel Nathans 1980 - Baruj Benacerraf 1984 - Cesar Milstein 1985 - Michael Stuart Brown 1985 -Joseph L. Goldstein 1986 - Stanley Cohen [& Rita Levi-Montalcini] 1988 - Gertrude Elion 1989 - Harold Varmus 1991 - Erwin Neher 1991 - Bert Sakmann 1993 - Richard J. Roberts 1993 - Phillip Sharp 1994 - Alfred Gilman 1995 - Edward B. Lewis The Jews are not demonstrating with their dead on the streets, yelling and chanting and asking for revenge; the Jews are not promoting brain washing the children in military training camps, teaching them how to blow themselves up and cause maximum deaths of Jews and other non Muslims. The Jews don't hijack planes, nor kill athletes at the Olympics; the Jews don't traffic slaves, nor have leaders calling for Jihad and death to all the Infidels. The Jews don't have the economic strength of petroleum, nor the possibilities to force the world's media to see "their side" of the question. Perhaps the world's Muslims should consider investing more in standard education and less in blaming the Jews for all their problems. == Subject: Re: The Global Islamic population is approximately 1,200,000,000, or 20% of the uh, 1) abdus salam considers himself muslim: http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/physics/laureates/1979/salam-bio.html (he's ahmaddiya, which sunnis consider heretical, far more than shia) 2) you seem to be including christian arabs? (medewar and corey) why not include raman and chandrasekar since they are south asian and many south asians are muslim too :) LOL. =========
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August 19, 2006 Subject: Nobel Prize and Ethnicity Jerry: First, the premise is itself ridiculous. Islam is a religion, not a race, as is (to a lesser extent) Judaism. Are those on the Jewish list all Ashkenazi, all Sephardic, or a mix? If a mix, what is the degree of genetic divergence from Islamic "Arabs"? On the gripping hand, for quite some time Nobel Prizes have been awarded on the basis of politics, not merit. Were such a list printed on paper, the presence of Arafat on the one hand, and Paul Erlich on the other, would be sufficient for me to consign it to a wooden roller in my lavatory. YMMV. -Scott Come now. You seem to be a victim of the modern rhetorical device that attempts to show that anything not absolutely true has no value, and is trash, and ludicrous, and "ridiculous", and you and I both know that is not true in general, nor in the case at at hand. You raise valid points, but no one asserted that this phenomenon is more than highly suggestive. Certainly some Nobel prizes are political. Very well, eliminate literature and peace, and even economics if you will -- although we all certainly know that some of the literature and economics prizes are well deserved. I won't argue about the peace prixes, but they were included not to inflate the prize list for Jews but for Arabs. And we all know that while Islam is not an ethnicity, it is highly correlated with ethnicity; but of course the suggestion here is not ethnic at all, but cultural. The Bell Curve would insist that among the billion or so Muslims on this earth, a significant number will be out among the very brightest no matter how large the mean differences in IQ between, say, Muslims and ethnic Jews. We are not dealing with tiny numbers here. While I have no great regard for Paul Erlich of Sanford, the butterfly entomologist who has made a reputation for incorrectly predicting famine and doom in the latter part of the 20th Century, the 1908 date suggests that this Nobel Prize must have gone to a different person. Professor Erlich is a man my age, and I was not born in 1908; nor was he. Google suggests
and I would guess that to be he. Not to break a butterfly on the wheel, I do suggest your approach, while fairly typical of the quality of discourse that passes for intelligent debate in this age, needs a bit of refinement. The numbers speak for themselves: A small percentage of mankind seems to have gathered a disproportionate number of prizes that many feel worthy of respect, while a very much larger percentage of humanity has gained a disproportionately small number; and since we cannot conclude from any theory I know of that there are not, among the billion people of Muslim faith, a significant number of high IQ individuals, there is at least the suggestion that the Muslim culture is suppressing that kind of activity. We know, of course, that the Jewish culture encourages intellectual activity. The data are not conclusive but they are highly suggestive. As to Sephardim and Ashkenazim, there is no need to differentiate, since I saw nothing to suggest ethnicity rather than culture as a factor here. In short, I find the data suggestive and interesting, not ridiculous; as to the degree of absurdity of the "premise", perhaps you will tell me what premise that is, since I don't recall presenting one. =========== Subject: NYC Elite Schools Jerry - Though not emphasized, I think that the most notable point in the NYT article (must click on the Multimedia link in the article for the accompanying chart) is the dramatic drop in white students in these schools. Even with their economic and social advantage (extra tutoring and expensive prep classes), the whites cannot keep up with the Asians. http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/18/education/18schools.html Ray ============== Subject: free energy, again Hi, Jerry -- we have yet another contender for the free energy crown, and another chapter -- or perhaps, just a footnote -- is being generated. An Irish-based company called Steorn (web site here: http://www.steorn.net/frontpage/default.aspx?p=1 ) claims to have created an "over unity" device -- that is, a device which generates more energy than is used to run it. They have filed a patent, which you can peruse at the following URL:
http://www.wipo.int/pctdb/en/fetch.jsp?DISP=25&IDB=0&SORT= I've reviewed the patent, and as near as I can tell, it seems to be based on the manipulation of magnetic fields; acceleration is achieved through magnetic attraction, and de--acceleration is prevented by blocking the magnetic field with a mechanical moving shield at the appropriate point. What makes this interesting is that the company has taken out a full-page ad in The Economist, seeking 12 high profile scientists to investigate the companies claims. I fail to understand why it is important to the company to validate the technology, prior to putting it into production. Steorn makes the claim that the technology will be useful for everything from eternal power for your cell phone, to endless fuel for your -- presumably electric -- car, to endless power for your home. I would have thought that it would be simpler to design and produce and market an eternal flashlight battery, than to take out an expensive ad in The Economist. But perhaps I'm missing something. At any rate, the web site is worth visiting, simply because it is one of the most beautifully done web sites I've ever seen. It is visually compelling, must have been incredibly expensive, and does a wonderful job of creating a great deal of excitement while avoiding anything resembling factual content. There is absolutely nothing on the site that discusses the technology; however, the patent link listed above does provide a significant amount of factual information. Meanwhile, the web site is truly beautiful, and worth visiting for that reason alone. It would be interesting to have someone with more physics background of myself review the patent, and see if there is anything here that is either new or interesting. Best wishes, Charlie == Dr. Pournelle, I'm not sure if you've seen this yet, but here's the obligatory "we've discovered free energy" claim for the decade/year: http://www.steorn.net/en/news.aspx?p=2 Apparently they're actually inviting critics to prove them wrong. Ryan Brown I have not looked at the patent. The technology description is an assertion, not a description. My comment on this is the same as my comments on reactionless drives: build something that works. It need not work well. It need not be the finished product. Just show a result. Do not spend time presenting theories. Show a result. I would not myself think that taking an advertisement in the Economist would not be productive, but it is not my decision. I can wish these people well, but I presume that the Second Law of Thermodynamics will prevail, as I expect Newton's Third Law to prevail. It is not that I believe those irrefutably true, but the revision in physical theory required to accommodate an actual result in contradiction to either of those principles is very large, and thus highly unlikely. I wish them well, but I would not invest money in this. I await an actual result. =========== Subject: a good articulation Hi Jerry,
That, and what surrounds it, is well said. Might add to keep current with the articulation one must read threads daily, and the accumulation of eclectic lore becomes invaluable in making on the fly thoughts. I just read Singers of Time, by Pohl and someone...finished it off camped in Bloody Canyon with the wind howling all nite... When I'm in the dentist chair I revert to being about six years old, or whenever that first early visit occurred...something of the same when I open a science fiction book. David ========= Subject: More dumbing down
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/education/bal-te.md. Al Perrella Soo-prize! =========== Subject: The Law of Unintended Consequences http://www.newsobserver.com/125/story/468483.html The endangered red-cockaded woodpecker is apparently making a comeback in south-coastal North Carolina, “The woodpecker's status as an endangered species requires special measures to try to prevent its extinction and restore its population, wildlife officials say. That's the law. Wildlife officials gave the town maps pinpointing woodpecker nests. No building or tree cutting is allowed within 200 feet of a nest tree without a federal permit. Some restrictions on development also apply to 75-acre circles around each nest site to provide foraging area for the birds. … federal wildlife officials are drawing a new set of woodpecker nest maps, due any day.” The entirely foreseeable effect, to everyone except the federal government? Developers and individual lot-owners are rapidly clear-cutting every property they own and hope to build on someday. Even lots that may never be developed, and could in the meantime provide habitat for the birds. -- Cecil Rose Department of the State Treasurer Soo-prize! ============== Subject: Mutiny on Flight 613. Mutiny on Flight 613.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/ ---- Roland Dobbins =========================
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This week: | Sunday,
The current page will always have the name currentmail.html and may be bookmarked. For previous weeks, go to the MAIL HOME PAGE. FOR THE CURRENT VIEW PAGE CLICK HERE If you are not paying for this place, click here... IF YOU SEND MAIL it may be published; if you want it private SAY SO AT THE TOP of the mail. I try to respect confidences, but there is only me, and this is Chaos Manor. If you want a mail address other than the one from which you sent the mail to appear, PUT THAT AT THE END OF THE LETTER as a signature. In general, put the name you want at the end of the letter: if you put no address there none will be posted, but I do want some kind of name, or explicitly to say (name withheld). Note that if you don't put a name in the bottom of the letter I have to get one from the header. This takes time I don't have, and may end up with a name and address you didn't want on the letter. Do us both a favor: sign your letters to me with the name and address (or no address) as you want them posted. Also, repeat the subject as the first line of the mail. That also saves me time. I try to answer mail, but mostly I can't get to all of it. I read it all, although not always the instant it comes in. I do have books to write too... I am reminded of H. P. Lovecraft who slowly starved to death while answering fan mail. Search engine:
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