| Tuesday,
May 2, 2006 Subject: The Lesson of Tal
Afar, by George Packer
"When we came to Iraq, we didn’t understand the
complexity—what it meant for a society to live under a brutal dictatorship,
with ethnic and sectarian divisions,” he said, in his hoarse, energetic
voice. “When we first got here, we made a lot of mistakes. We were like a
blind man, trying to do the right thing but breaking a lot of things."
At the highest levels of the Administration, the
notion of acknowledging the enemy’s grievances was dismissed as defeatist.
But in Tal Afar I heard expressions of soldierly respect for what some
Americans called the Iraqi resistance. "In a city that’s seventy-five per
cent Sunni, if you approach it from a point of view of bringing in or
killing everyone who’s had anything to do with the insurgency you’re bound
to fail," Major Michael Simmering said. "Imagine how many people in this
town have picked up a rifle and taken a shot at coalition forces. Do we
really want to try to arrest them all?"
http://www.newyorker.com/fact/content/articles/060410fa_fact2
This is long, but very much worth the time to read.
One concept that really struck me: the refusal of the
higher-ups to use the word "insurgency" made it difficult for the military
to properly frame the situation. The military has a doctrine for dealing
with insurgencies, but since everyone was carefully avoiding the word, it
was hard for the military to apply the correct doctrine. So instead of doing
the correct things, they did other things. Put more directly, the refusal to
acknowledge the reality of the situation had actual, harmful consequences.
Clear thinking matters.
This quote is like something out of a Retief story:
...when the new chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,
Marine Corps General Peter Pace, said, rather sheepishly, "I have to use the
word 'insurgent,' because I can’t think of a better word right now,”
Rumsfeld cut in, " 'Enemies of the legitimate Iraqi government'--how’s
that?"
-- Steve R. Hastings "Vita est"
Indeed.
==========
Subject: Fusion Power
Dear Dr Pournelle,
Some further thoughts and information on fusion as a
future power source. First, a declaration of interest and a disclaimer: I
work at Culham in the UK, the home of JET, the biggest fusion device in the
world, but I am NOT a physicist. I'm an ex-electronics engineer now running
the quality group.
I believe you and your correspondents are too
pessimistic regarding the role of fusion - there have been major advances in
the science over the last ten years and the strong feeling now is that
building a working power plant is primarily an engineering problem. Not a
trivial problem (!) but do-able without a fundamental breakthrough in
theory. Not in the same category as "cavorite paint or travel through
Alderson points".
I absolutely agree with you that for the short/medium
term we need fission plants, both in the US and the UK. As you say, in a
sensible regulatory climate, built to a standard design and in quantity they
are cheap and well understood. Modern designs are intrinsically safe and
generate much lower quantities of active waste. The problem with this comes
in 30-50 years as uranium is not an abundant resource. If the whole world
has adopted fission you are going to run into supply/cost problems. Of
course, this is not a issue if you start building fast breeder power plants
but this really does raise issues of weapons proliferation and security.
This is where fusion comes in.
Over the last few years a "fast-track" to fusion power
has been mapped out aiming for the first commercial power plants coming on
stream in 35-40 years time. Not as a blue skies dream but a hard headed
assessment of what can be done. For the last 50 years fusion has been a
science/research activity and we are only now moving into the
engineering/exploitation phase. Fusion probably could have been made to work
earlier but there just has been no need - energy has been cheap. It was one
of the pioneers of fusion, Lev Artsimovitch, who, when asked when fusion
would be ready, replied, "Fusion will be ready when society needs it."
Mr Erbach refers to "the European Iter fusion
collaboration" He is right that ITER is the next step in fusion but it is
not a European project, it is world project, although it will be built in
France -10% of the cost will come from US taxpayers. The full list of
partners are the USA, Japan, China, South Korea, Russia, India and Europe -
each contributing 10% apart from Europe which provides 50% as host (yes, I
know that adds up to 110%. India only joined at the end of 2005 and it was
decided to use the extra 10% as contingency). ITER, which will take about
ten years to build, will not produce electricity but will break even - i.e.
produce more power than is put in. ITER is itself part of a wider plan. On a
similar timescale a materials test facility will be designed and built
(developing long lasting and low activation structural materials is one of
the engineering challenges on the road to a commercial power plant) and a
number of other issues tackled. ITER's main role is to optimise the design
of "DEMO", the first fusion power plant able to produce electricity,
starting operations in 25-30 years. This in turn leads to commercial plants
in 40 years or so.
ITER and DEMO are both conventional aspect ratio
tokamaks, as you point out a brute force approach (in tokamaks size really
does matter!) but the power plants they lead to should definitely not be
uneconomic. In the end one of the other approaches to fusion may turn out to
be better (spherical tokamaks, stellarators, various types of pinch device,
or inertial fusion) but tokamaks are certainly the best understood and
furthest developed. The present thinking is to push on with the one we know,
get it working and then make improvements. If we keep looking for the "best"
option fusion will never happen.
Sorry to go on - I've got to stop preaching! - but I
have seen a number of discussions on the web recently where the advances of
the last few years and the increased interest and activity across the world
have not been appreciated. Fusion is not an immediate energy source but will
be needed in the future and if it is to be ready when it is needed work has
to start now.
If anyone would like more, either about fusion in
general or the "fast track" the following UKAEA Fusion and ITER web sites
have stacks of information and links.
http://www.fusion.org.uk/index.html
http://www.iter.org/index.htm
Regards and best wishes,
Alasdair Urquhart
I have been pro fusion since before the
Carter administration -- I recall saying that Carter wanted to war on energy
dependence and the first thing he did was cut back on the fusion program --
but it needs new science, not just engineering. I am all for funding it.
Heck, give the cost of the war, we could fund fusion research and hardly
notice as we built a fission and coal economy.
===========
Mock Iraqi Villages in Mojave Prepare Troops for
Battle.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/01/world/
americas/01insurgency.html?_r=2&oref=slogin
&pagewanted=all&oref=slogin
-- Roland Dobbins
============
Subject: Jupiter "climate change" -
http://skyandtelescope.com/news/article_1689_1.asp
Not to make too much of it but an interesting
datapoint in conjunction with the reports of warming on Mars.
And claims of an impact on hurricane strength/frequemncy
here on Earth.
R
But I see no signs that Hansen pays
attention to this. Which bothers me.
==========
From another conference:
Back in the 1970s, when nearly all hereditarians were
in the closet, a friend told me that mental age correlated better than
chronological age on all, or most, factors of development, such as height
and weight. The ability to drive a car responsibly, too, I believe.
This is so simple an idea that I suspect others have
thought of it also. Any studies or observations here?
==
From another conference:
http://www.nature.com/news/2006/060424/full/060424-9.html
"One major finding from the study is that children
from all corners of the globe follow almost exactly the same growth
trajectory. This lays to rest the idea that genetic differences make the
babies of some ethnic groups bigger or smaller than others. It shows instead
that different populations tend to grow the same when given the chance."
I'm sure that upon learning this, college football
coaches will immediately stop recruiting in Samoa and start recruiting in
Japan.
The ability of social scientists to
believe nonsense seems to have no limit.
=============
From another conference:
http://www.chicagosuntimes.com/output/news/cst-nws-gangs01.html#
Gangs claim their turf in Iraq
May 1, 2006
BY FRANK MAIN <mailto:fmain@suntimes.com> Crime
Reporter
The Gangster Disciples, Latin Kings and Vice
Lords were born decades ago in Chicago's most violent neighborhoods. Now,
their gang graffiti is showing up 6,400 miles away in one of the world's
most dangerous neighborhoods -- Iraq.
Armored vehicles, concrete barricades and
bathroom walls all have served as canvasses for their spray-painted gang
art. At Camp Cedar II, about 185 miles southeast of Baghdad, a guard shack
was recently defaced with "GDN" for Gangster Disciple Nation, along with the
gang's six-pointed star and the word "Chitown," a soldier who photographed
it said.
The graffiti, captured on film by an Army
Reservist and provided to the Chicago Sun-Times, highlights increasing gang
activity in the Army in the United States and overseas, some experts say.
<http://www.chicagosuntimes.com/cgi-bin/print.cgi?getReferrer=http://www.chi
cagosuntimes.com/output/news/cst-nws-gangs01.html#>
PHOTO GALLERY
<http://images.suntimes.com/popups/NWS/iraq_050106/images/gangs0501a.jpg>
Jeffrey Stoleson, an Army Reserve sergeant in Iraq, is seen in front of a
barricade tagged with gang graffiti in March in Iraq. Stoleson, who has been
in Iraq for almost a year, says he has taken hundreds of photos of gang
graffiti there.
<http://www.chicagosuntimes.com/cgi-bin/print.cgi?getReferrer=http://www.chi
cagosuntimes.com/output/news/cst-nws-gangs01.html#> Click here for photo
gallery >
Military and civilian police investigators
familiar with three major Army bases in the United States -- Fort Lewis,
Fort Hood and Fort Bragg -- said they have been focusing recently on
soldiers with gang affiliations. These bases ship out many of the soldiers
fighting in Iraq.
"I have identified 320 soldiers as gang members
from April 2002 to present," said Scott Barfield, a Defense Department gang
detective at Fort Lewis in Washington state. "I think that's the tip of the
iceberg."
Of paramount concern is whether gang-affiliated
soldiers' training will make them deadly urban warriors when they return to
civilian life and if some are using their access to military equipment to
supply gangs at home, said Barfield and other experts.
'They don't try to hide it'
Jeffrey Stoleson, an Army Reserve sergeant in
Iraq for almost a year, said he has taken hundreds of photos of gang
graffiti there.
In a storage yard in Taji, about 18 miles north
of Baghdad, dozens of tanks were vandalized with painted gang symbols,
Stoleson said in a phone interview from Iraq. He said he also took pictures
of graffiti at Camp Scania, about 108 miles southeast of Baghdad, and Camp
Anaconda, about 40 miles north of Baghdad. Much of the graffiti was by
Chicago-based gangs, he said.
In civilian life, Stoleson is a correctional
officer and co-founder of the gang interdiction team at a Wisconsin
maximum-security prison. Now he is a truck commander for security escorts in
Iraq. He said he watched two fellow soldiers in the Wisconsin Army National
Guard 2nd Battalion, 127th Infantry, die Sept. 26 when a roadside bomb
exploded. Five of Stoleson's friends have been wounded.
Because of the extreme danger of his mission in
Iraq, Stoleson said he does not relish the idea of working alongside gang
members, whom he does not trust. Stoleson said he once reported to a
supervisor that he suspected a company of soldiers in Iraq was rife with
gang members.
"My E-8 [supervising sergeant] told me not to
ruffle their feathers because they were doing a good job," he said.
Stoleson said he has spotted soldiers in Iraq
with tattoos signifying their allegiance to the Vice Lords and the Simon
City Royals, another street gang spawned in Chicago.
"They don't try to hide it," Stoleson said.
Army doesn't see significant trend
Christopher Grey, spokesman for the Army's
Criminal Investigation Command, did not deny the existence of gang members
in the military, but he disputed that the problem is rampant -- or even
significant.<snip>
===========
Subject: RE: Illegal immigration (View412)
> Marius was sent to stop an invasion of the Gauls.
That's true, and in Fletcher Pratt's _Battles that
Changed History _, he mentions the Arab migration into the Levant. Ancient
history, right?
Also, closer to home, there's the history of Oregon,
with lots of Americans moving in to make sure the British couldn't keep it.
A more interesting parallel may be the Spanish
Reconquista -- it took 500 years for the Spanish Christians to regain
control of the lands wrested from them, but they did it.
The Reconquista may not be taught in American schools,
but I wonder if the Mexicans have heard of it?
Rob Pierce
==========
Subject: Illegal Alien Boycott Day
After reading your comments on this and some others
both on the news and web I find it very interesting that no one connects the
dots.
What is the point of May 1st?
Why were the President of Venezuela and Cuba locked in
constant conferences for the last month and more about May 1st activities?
Why did no one make comments about the background of
the man who promoted this May 1st protest and rally?
Does no one connect the tradition of May 1at
historically to those who promoted this event?
So why was May 1st chosen by the promoter who is a
leader in the farm labor movement?
Happy May Day to all! -- James Early
I had thought it fairly obvious to this
readership. Was I mistaken?
Arise ye starvelings from your slumbers
Arise ye prisoners of want
For reason in revolt now thunders
and thus ends the age of cant.
Now away with all your superstitions
Servile masses arise, arise!
We'll change the old conditions
And spurn the dust to win the prize.
CHORUS
Then come comrades rally
And the last fight let us face
The Internationale
Unites the human race.
=============
Shah of Iran's Heir Plans Overthrow of Regime?
http://www.humaneventsonline.com/article.php?print=yes&id=14424
-- Roland Dobbins
He should be on the Peacock Throne, with
Iran as our ally. But Jimmy Carter and the Democrats knew better. Do not
forget how we lost Iran.
=======
Jerry;
Monday's report is scary! You report that the
freeways were clear with reduced traffic because of the boycott. Just think,
all of those other people who stayed at home today and will be back
tomorrow, are undocumented, unlicensed, and uninsured!
Scary!
ronpru@pacbell.net
Yes, we are thinking that...
Jerry,
Your story of the LA to San Diego traffic reminds me
of when the "Evil Republicans" *gasp* shut down the government and all the
petty bureaucrats had to stay home. I had to drive from San Luis Obispo to
Sacramento that Monday, and can honestly say I'd never seen traffic on
either the 101 or I-5 better. Maybe we can have the government and the
Illegals trade off staying home from now on.
In Phoenix traffic has been only slightly lighter than
normal. Arizona is a so called "right to work" state, and I suspect that if
folks didn't bother showing up for work today, they might as well not bother
showing up in the future either.
Mark E. Horning, Physicist,
============
Subj: Artillery FOs Get a Very Special Laptop
http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htart/articles/20060502.aspx
=May 2, 2006: ... PSS (Precision Strike Suite) ... has
an artillery forward observer (FO) equipped with a laptop computer and a
laser range finder linked to a military radio. The FO tells the system to
get his GPS location. Then, the laser range finder is used to get the GPS
location of the target. On the screen comes a 3-D image (taken from
Department of Defense satellite photos and map data) showing the FO and the
target. If it looks right to the FO, hit a few more keys and the distant
artillery units fire a missile (GPS guided GPS rocket) or guided shell
(Excalibur) at the target. The entire process takes a few minutes, and is
critical for targets that are "time sensitive" (you have to hit them now,
because pretty soon it will be too late). ...=
Hmmm... "When it absolutely, positively has to be
destroyed NOW!"
Rod Montgomery==monty@sprintmail.com
It's sure all different from reading a map
to find yourself, and doing range estimating from assumptions on how tall
that truck is...
Position, azimuth, offset, all done
automagically. Until Windows crashes...
Or until someone puts 20 KT in a high
altitude burst over his own country, and all the satellite assets are blown
away, and no one knows how to read a map.
==========
Subject: Some California stats
(Illegal Immigrants)
Subject: ILLEGAL ALIENS
No clue on the reliability of this, but it was
forwarded from a friend who still lives in California.
1. 40% of all workers in L.A. County (L.A. County has
10 million people) are working for cash and not paying taxes. This was
because they are predominantly illegal immigrants, working without a green
card.
2. 95% of warrants for murder in Los Angeles are for
illegal aliens.
3. 75% of people on the most wanted list in Los
Angeles are illegal aliens.
4. Over 2/3's of all births in Los Angeles County are
to illegal alien Mexicans on Medi-Cal whose births were paid for by
taxpayers.
5. Nearly 25% of all inmates in California detention
centers are Mexican nationals here illegally.
6. Over 300,000 illegal aliens in Los Angeles County
are living in garages.
7. The FBI reports half of all gang members in Los
Angeles are most likely illegal aliens from south of the border.
8. Nearly 60% of all occupants of HUD properties are
illegal.
9. 21 radio stations in L.A. are Spanish speaking.
10. In L.A. County 5.1 million people speak English.
3.9 million speak Spanish (10.2 million people in L.A.County).
(All 10 from the Los Angeles Times)
Less than 2% of illegal aliens are picking our crops
but 29% are on welfare.
http://www.cis.org/
Over 70% of the United States annual population growth
(and over 90% of California, Florida, and New York) results from
immigration.
The cost of immigration to the American taxpayer in
1997 was a NET (after subtracting taxes immigrants pay) $70 BILLION a year,
[Professor Donald Huddle, Rice University].
The lifetime fiscal impact (taxes paid minus services
used) for the average adult Mexican immigrant is a NEGATIVE.
29% of inmates in federal prisons are illegal aliens.
None of this astonishes me, but I don't
have verification.
==========
Earth's Artificial Ring:
Project West Ford.
http://www.damninteresting.com/?p=516
- Roland Dobbins
==========
Subject: Illegal immigrant boycott
Dr. Pournelle,
I thought you might be interested in the impact of the
boycott on the California school systems. Here in (Central California), my
high school was a lot less crowded and generally quieter than it usually is.
Although I missed the morning classes due to an AP test, I noticed in
Physical Education that about a fourth of the class was absent. The lunch
line was more orderly than usual; the locker room, usually crowded and hot,
was downright roomy.
In summary, I suspect the impact was much the same as
that of the boycott last year. There was more room, more serious students
(on average) attending class, and I observed that a great many of the D and
F students stayed home. Perhaps the majority of those were not Hispanic
illegals, but I know of seven girls in my PE period who are, and they stayed
home. I would guess that the school got more done than usual, at least in
the advanced classes.
One last comment. How damaging would it be politically
if America closed her southern border, dumped Mexican felons just over the
wall (well... first we build one, then dump) and ceased to admit legal
Mexican immigrants for a period not less than ten years? If the government
levied high taxes on employers who hire illegal workers, then people might
go back home (to Mexico) without any further governmental action. Emphasis
on English and American culture in the schools would further assimilation,
as would the lack of braceros nuevos que no entienden ni la idioma ni la
cultura de los EEUU. I suspect that this is either unworkable or too radical
a change, and that's fine. I just want to know -- could it actually work?
Contemplatively,
S
PS. You probably won't find it important enough to
correct. . . but the spelling is Un dia sin trafico, accent on the i in dia
and the a in trafico. Apologies if this sounds like nitpicking; I wouldn't
want anyone to laugh, that's all -- and there's an AP Spanish test coming
up, which is why it's on my mind at all.
Clearly the US, which is awash in money,
could afford to pay enough to induce people to do the work now being done by
illegal. I point out that in New Orleans, blacks are being laid off because
Mexicans will work for wages that require them to sleep in parks -- and this
for FEMA contracts.
The labor cost of agriculture is real, but
doubling the wages paid doesn't double the consumer price.
We are seriously addicted to cheap labor.
It is a curable addiction.
TOP
CURRENT
VIEW Tuesday |
