| Monday
May 3, 2004
Subject: Abu
Ghraib follies
" What I
have not heard here is accusations of actual rape of a prisoner."
Well,
that is in fact part of the story. Claim is that a contract employee, a
translator ( possibly an Iraqi?) , raped a teenage boy in this prison, while
an American female soldier took pictures. Anf there's more; unreleased
photos of forced sodomy among the prisoners.
I would guess
that such behavior was rare in the American past, but then we're a lot
kinkier than we used to be.
As for
pro-American opinion in Iraq - gone, most likely forever. As for those
people who kept saying that things in Iraq were going a lot better than the
press was saying - the press was in error all right, but in the other
direction.
Concerning
Fallujah, we've blinked - check it out.
Odom and I think
alike: and our predictions come true.
Gregory Cochran
Pitt (Lord Chatham) to Parliament in 1778:
"My lords, if I were an American as
I am an Englishman, while a foreign troop was landed in my country I
would
never lay down my arms- never, never, never".
Greg Cochran is always worth listening
to, and he and I were pretty well agreed before this adventure started that
we should not begin it.
But we are there now; we must make the
best of what we have now; and I for one take no great pleasure in proving
that I was right all the time. None at all, in fact.
Jerry,
Nine days after I turned five years old, the Japanese attacked Pearl
Harbor. We lived a half block from the East Gate of Fort Lawton in Seattle.
And I was eight on V-J day.
I don't remember much about the war at that age, except that my dad
worked at Boeing Airplane Company and worked the swing shift and always
seemed to be gone when I got home from school and asleep when I left in the
morning. Oh yes, and the voices of H.V. Kaltenbourne and Ed Murrow and
Gabriel Heatter.
But as time went by, certain things filtered into my young mind.
Especially the nightly bugles over the P.A system at the Fort to announce
the smoking lamp and then Taps. Taps seemed a sad lonely voice without
excuse. It had a kind of beauty, perhaps from its regularity as I lay in bed
getting ready to drift off to sleep.
Our house being large, and a half block from the Fort, we rented rooms to
various personnel with whom we became quite close. Perhaps everyone was
closer then, because life was so....
I remember the announcement of D-Day in school, in the auditorium which
was really a cramped indoor gym with low ceilings. It was a message from the
grown-ups which we did not understand except that they said it was
important. And life went on.
Of course, being on the West Coast, we had blackout drills and air-raid
wardens to go around to make sure that no light was showing. And on trips
from Seattle to Bremerton, there were mine fields that had to be navigated
by the ferry.
But the main impression was the soldiers. The soldiers.
There were about six of us kids who would hear the rumble of the convoys
long before they appeared and we would run the quarter block to Government
Way to wave to the soldiers in the convoys. One day they would be incoming
from the trains from all over the country, and a day or two later they would
be outbound to the Pacific via troop ship.
Us kids loved to wave to them and they seemed to like waving back. We
waved and waved, holding one arm up with the other braced against the bicep,
and waved until it seemed that our fingers would fall from our hands and our
hands from out wrists. Whenever we could, we would talk to them and they
were always nice and smiling and soft-spoken.
The only odd note was our mothers who would go to the highway with us to
wave. So often they would return to the house to have some tea or coffee (or
Sanka), they would have tears in their eyes. It seemed that that was what
grownups did, that was all.
And yes, when we played, we would play WAR and it was either against the
Germans or "the Japs." For kids it didn't matter which side you played, as
long as you played. And there always seemed to be a kind of delight at being
shot, with histrionic fallings over, or "it was only a flesh wound, ya
dummy."
These days, these impressions come back as I see pictures on the news,
and especially of our president who seems to be playing war rather than
leading our nation at war. The unnecessary landing on the aircraft carrier
which cost several million dollars for the one video-op. And then his
taunting the Iraqi resistance with "bring 'em on!" seems less the behavior
of a leader than a kid playing war. And the hundreds of casualties since.
And then not attending any of the flag-draped homecomings.
"Bad breeding," is what my mother would say of the current president.
But smiling through tears of anger, sorrow and pride, watching the young
men (and now women also) going off to war.
dunc
I will say it again: the President's
objective is a noble one. Taking liberty to the world, spreading liberty,
equality, fraternity, by force if need be, has inspired more than one man of
what I would call "good breeding." The view may be wrong. On the
conservative view of the nature of man it is almost certainly wrong.
But I take on great pleasure in having
been right; and I will be the first to congratulate him if my view proves
wrong.
But I fear he has undertaken a task
beyond our abilities; and were it not, still one beyond our determination
and stamina. Yet he remains the President, and in a war I will not
substitute my judgment for his; I certainly do not want to discourage the
troops. If there is a chance that we can do this Herculean task of building
a stable and law abiding state in Iraq, the world will be a better place for
having done it.
=============
Subject: "We were too clever by half"
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A58702-2004May1?language=printer
Roland Dobbins
======================
I can hardly believe it (that he would be so blatant
that is), but Walter Cronkite said, in his own person "It is unfortunate
that democracies are blighted by this necessity that all politicians must
get elected before they can serve". Sheesh! What does he want, a coup and a
junta?
From an editorial at http://www.centredaily.com/mld/centredaily/news/opinion/8501562.htm
Greg Hemsath
===============
Subject: Scientists Develop Self-chilling Beer Can
Important stuff!
http://www.overclockersclub.com/?read=8316618
Rod McFadden
Hurrah!
=================
Dear Jerry:
I watched CSPAN yesterday; a Congressional Hearing
about the Guard and Reserve. Several of the two stars testifying are State
Adjutant Generals. Some of them also wear another had as the chief of
emergency operations for their respective states. Some interesting things
came out about the extent of the military overstretch caused by the current
deployments to Iraq. One is equipment: All of the HUMVEES that went over are
being kept there, because they didn't have enough to begin with and they
keep getting blown up. Readiness in another problem. Most guard units
operate at 65% of authorized strength. Those is the so-called Ready Reserve
at 80%. To get a unit ready to deploy and up to full strength means
stripping personnel out the units left behind. That has a negative impact on
training as well. The poor excuse for what happened in that prison was lack
of training -- a very poor excuse. I had that training. It was two hours, as
I recall.
One of the two stars had an interesting take on
readiness and expressed the view that the military's TRiCare Health system
should be opened to reserve and guard members. Seems that when people are
activated, their deployment is often delayed because of medical and dental
problems that have to be taken care of first. Especially dental. This too
plays hob with scheduling and training. Given the location of some of those
units, such access would probably mean sending them to the VA instead.
Regardless, access to health care would have a very positive impact on
recruitment and retention. Not that there is any money for that in the
current budget.. My monthly checkup at the local VA has slid to once every
three months. The net impact is that the National Guard has been seriously
degraded in its primary mission; emergency response within the state.
Gen. Myers was on "This Week" this morning, and while
I believe that he believes everything he says about the prisoner abuse
scandal, he admitted he had not yet read the report . That report was
written by another two star general, so the next question was why not? He
didn't really have any explanation for all of this and he looked like he was
seriously embarrassed and might be rethinking his career options. John
McCain was on. Sad and angry about it all. Everyone is agreed that what
happened was shameful and a terrible thing, but an aberration. No one could
explain why the people doing it felt good enough about it to actually take
pictures.
The next to last segment of the show was the New York
National Guard officer who gave the Democratic response yesterday to the
President's weekly address. Again this steps over the line, but if the chain
of command is not responsive, then a good officer has little choice. This
guy obviously didn't care if he makes Captain and what he had to say about
the supply situations is pretty hair raising. Even water was in short supply
and he describes a situation where 19 year old kids were being forced to act
as untrained diplomats, on the street corners of Iraqi cities. It's an
Infantry company and no one, including him, was trained for such duties.
He said that as more Guard members return to civilian
life , more will come forward with their complaints. And this from a guy who
also said he'll go back if ordered, because he signed up for the Army and
will do what he is told to do. (He's a civilian at the moment).
On top of this was Ambassador Wilson, who has a new
book out about his mission to Niger and his wife being revealed as a CIA
operative. He now says that Karl Rove and Scooter Libby (What kind of
grown-up goes by the name "Scooter"?) were responsible for this and
fantasized about them being "frog-marched out of the White House in
handcuffs". To the charge that he is acting in a political manner, he simply
rolled his eyes and admitted it, as if to say, you expected any other result
from attacking my family?
It is my opinion that the deciding factor in the
forthcoming election will be disenchanted veterans and military personnel
and their families. They all vote and the entire issue of the war has gone
way beyond which party you belong to. Expect that taxes will go up as well,
regardless of who wins.
Sincerely, Francis Hamit
Wilson expected his report to make
some kind of splash and when it didn't he went public. One doesn't do that,
as you and I both know. The Company doesn't forget that kind of thing. He
was sent to determine something. Apparently he did a good job of it, but the
answer he got wasn't one that was wanted. OK. That happens.
I recall in 1964 looking at strike
photos of our operations in Laos against the Ho Chi Minh Trail. As I was
looking at them, the TV showed Lyndon Johnson denouncing candidate Goldwater
as triggerhappy because Goldwater suggested we ought to bomb the Ho Chi Minh
Trail in Laos. We were already doing that, as Johnson had to know; but
Johnson still used this as an opportunity to denounce Goldwater. I had a
fleeting impulse to take the pictures to the Times, but of course I didn't.
It wasn't my job to go public with the information, even though it could
hardly be kept a secret, at least not from the North Vietnamese or the
Laotians, and one presumes they told the Russians and Chinese. But it wasn't
my job to go public with that information. It wasn't Wilson's to go public
with the report he gave the Agency.
As to who told that Wilson got the job
because his wife suggested him, I don't know. Probably Rove asked "How did
this guy get that assignment?" and someone said "His wife suggested it. She
works for the Company." And Rove or someone like him said that to the
reporter when asked "Why was Wilson given this assignment?"
That sort of thing happens a lot.
More important is the first part of
your letter. The Empire is being stretched thin here; as we all warned
before the Iraqi operation began. Nothing happening in Iraq is a large
surprise to anyone who gave a moment's thought to the situation, and most of
it was said right here in one way or another.
So what do we do now? Cut and run?
That may be the right way out; if so, then we come home to an entirely
different nation with an entirely different security strategy. We can't
abandon Imperialism and then not convert back to being a Republic. In
between doesn't work well.
====================
http://usatoday.printthis.clickability.com/pt/cpt?
action=cpt&title=USATODAY.com+-+Intel
+CEO%3A+Let%27s+end+political+games
+and+compete&expire=&urlID=10057346&fb
=Y&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.usatoday.com%
2Fnews%2Fopinion%2Feditorials%2F2004-
04-27-forum_x.htm&partnerID=1660
Intel CEO: Let's end political games and compete
Indeed
================
Subject: US Losing its edge in science
Jerry,
Perhaps the Co-Do will have to put a moratorium on all
that research in third world countries!
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/05/03/science/03RESE.html?hp
Thanks, Dave
Aaargh
Subject: Liquid Body Armor
Dr.Pournelle,
I haven't written in while but I hope this finds you
recovered from you allergy bout. I have pollen allergies myself.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,118577,00.html
The above referenced article was forwarded to me by a
friend and I immediately thought of Nemourlon armor. This new developement
is a liquid that hardens and reinforces Kevlar on impact. It appears to work
well against relatively slow, sharp edged missles like arrows (or shrapnel)
and might offer some protection from exotic projectiles like flechettes.
Looking forward to your next CoDominium outing.
Best regards, Ron Booker rbooker@roxboro.net
Interesting. Thanks. Allegra seems to
be helping with the head cold/allergy by the way.
LOGISTICS: How France Supported the War in Iraq
Jerry
Most days the stuff on this site is routine, if
interesting, stuff. Today it's just fascinating.
April 30, 2004: The General Services Administration
(GSA) is doing something right, earning praise for its innovative efforts in
supporting 1st Marine Expeditionary Force (1MEF) during Iraqi operations.
Normally, 1MEF works with GSA's San Diego office to get discounted prices on
commercial goods, typically by buying off of a pre-qualified/pre-negotiated
"GSA Schedule" contracts. Before departing for the Gulf, the Marines made
arrangements to place orders directly from overseas through the GSA
Advantage web site. GSA staff also offered to take supply lists (items with
brief descriptions) received as email and deal with filling out the web site
forms. This was needed because web connections from Iraq are sometimes
erratic, but email usually gets through..
Once the Invasion of Iraq commenced, GSA staff ended
up handing all procurement, from sorting through vendors to filling out
purchasing and shipping orders. The arrangement worked well enough that,
from date of order to delivery, was often four to five days. Ordered items
were frequently moved through discounted commercial air transport such as
FedEx via France and Bahrain into Kuwait. France did not try to bar these
supply flights, but probably didn't know what was going on, either. The GSA
East Coast vendors and warehouses were often used, instead of those on the
west coast, to cut shipping time. With military logistics into the Gulf
jammed up with shipments of munitions and large equipment, the makeshift
system worked well enough for 1MEF to continue to use it throughout its 2003
deployment.
Items ordered through this route included everything
from building materials to toilet paper. For example, more than 70,000
pounds of zip ties were shipped to use as flex cuffs to restrain prisoners.
Canned air to clean dust out of electronics and weapons was a popular item,
but 24 cans of Silly String stood out. The foamy material was sprayed around
unexploded ordnance to check for trip wires. -- Doug Mohney
From
http://www.strategypage.com//fyeo/
howtomakewar/default.asp?target=HTLOG.HTM
ED
Yeah
===================
I posted this on Trufen.net:
Pournelle and Cochran are somewhat elitist about it
all, lamenting that fertility is inversely correlated with IQ, and
suggesting that IQ might fall a point each generation.
In fact, IQs are rising, much faster than that. (I've
forgotten the numbers, alas.) This has to be due to environmental effects
such as education and nutrition; it's too fast for selection. The moral,
then, is that we don't measure intelligence well, and it is distributed
through society more evenly than the elitists would pretend.
Smart pills have been discussed in the press a bit
lately, without real substance. Cochran suggests some mechanisms for such a
thing, though they are visible because they are associated with genetically
linked disease. There are, no doubt, undiseased variations that could be
triggered through drugs.
I think that for a while, improvement in intelligence
will rest with environmental steps. Teach children to appreciate books and
to read, and they're smarter. Give them a better diet and they're smarter.
Cochran suggested two kinds of smart pill--one which
would develop the brain from infancy, and which would be administered in the
womb perhaps, and a temporary smart pill that could get you through an exam
or a research brainstorm.
Would people give their children the first? They'd
insist on it. And if there were significant risk? I suspect most would do so
anyway.
A temporary smart pill would be, perhaps, universal.
If continued use carried a risk, I suspect too many would take the risk.
There was some discussion of the effects of seratonin
(Prozac, etc.) on intelligence, as well as its psychiatric benefits
(gosh-wow book by Kramer, maybe 1991). It acts a little like several years
of therapy, without the struggle. Perhaps the confidence that may be a
by-product raises effective intelligence. It was sold on campuses as a smart
pill, though you have to keep on taking it for it to be effective.
-- Jim Caughran caughran@rogers.com
I don't know what truefen.net is but
presumably it doesn't have any requirement for sources. We have here a
number of assertions, but nothing to indicate where they come from. IQ
measures are useful in predictions. We have tons of evidence for that. I
wrote in the 1970's in A STEP FARTHER OUT about nutritional deprivation and
IQ stunting, which continues in many parts of Africa and probably accounts
for at least some of the dramatic differences between African in Africa IQ
and African American IQ studies: a full 15 points or so. But it hardly
accounts for other IQ differences.
It isn't politically correct, but the
scientific evidence is hard to refute: heredity accounts for between 40 and
60% of the variance in IQ, and the twin studies would put it at the higher
number. Some evidence supports an even higher correlation but 60% is quite a
lot.
Greg Cochran is very careful about
what he says; if you want to know Cochran's views read Cochran, not a random
post about him.
There aren't too many certainties in
the human sciences, and fewer still in the "social sciences," most of which
are to sciences as bear hunters are to bears.
==============
Jerry,
The mood of the commentary on your site recently has
been that there are signs that the Neo-cons are beginning to re-evaluate
their position. At least some of them genuinely believed that the Iraqi
people would welcome the US into their country, co-operate with the
occupation, get a healthy, freedom guaranteeing constitution in place in
short order and let the troops leave with a friendly wave and maybe even a
ticker-tape parade to see them off.
They may protest that they didn’t believe it would
really be that easy, but then why didn’t they plan better? They’re not
stupid; other factors must have been at work. I suggest an ideological
confusion; they really thought that the people of Iraq would leap at the
opportunity to create a free and open society. But their ideology led us all
into an expensive experiment against good advice, not least from you. The
experiment has been conducted and the results are in: they were wrong. It
may not be possible to do what they had hoped at all, and if it is to be
achieved, the cost is going to be astronomical.
The point is not that this could be another Vietnam,
but rather that it could be another Afghanistan: with the US taking the
Soviet role.
So what now? Will the Neo-cons lose influence? Or will
they retain their influence and re-form their strategy and view of the
region? Will the fall-back position of the Neo-cons be Conservatism or
Fascism? To an observer from the other side of the pond who doesn’t really
understand the intricacies of US politics, it seems that both may be
possible. And what will happen if Kerry wins?
As always, I’d be most interested in your thoughts.
Regards,
Craig Arnold
If I were President I would declare
victory and leave Iraq, devoting saved resources into rebuilding the Armed
Forces (that is, filling out the Equipment tables again and recruiting units
up to strength) first, then energy independence; but I am not President, and
neither candidate seems likely to do that.
Following is an interesting article on
what's going on around Fallujah, from correspondents in the area
Subject: Who's on first?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/
A60444-2004May2?language=printer
- Roland Dobbins
==================
Subject: Warflying: Was Chaos Manor one of the 3,151
wireless access points found?
In one brief flight from LAX to 3,151 access points
with only 1,026 encrypted. That shows over 2/3 of wireless Angelinos were
wide open for hack attacks:
http://www4.tomshardware.com/column/20040430/war_flying-07.html
http://www4.tomshardware.com/column/20040430/index.html
Of particular interest in the article: "Kismet is able
to detect WAPs that NetStumbler misses, like WAPs with cloaked SSIDs. Some
WAPs have a "Cloak SSID" feature that allows them to operate without
blasting out the SSID to the world."
===== -- John Bartley K7AAY http://celdata.cjb.net
http://livejournal.com/users/clackablog "Clearly, latrines are the forgotten
Last Amenity of the Apocalypse. (Other signs.. Michael Jackson as your Best
Man (?), Christina Aguilara as your makeup consultant & Cher as your
personal shopper.) - ginmar
Not us. My local net isn't on unless I
want it to be, and it is encrypted in any event. Not me.
Subject: global warming - on Jupiter
Somehow, this will be (western) Man's fault:
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/27/science/space/27JUPI.html
Chris C
"Outside of a dog, a book is man's best friend. Inside
of a dog it's too dark to read." Groucho Marx
Of course it's our fault, didn't we
send a nuclear powered probe?
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