| Wednesday,
September 10, 2003 Dr.
Pournelle,
This article just came out analyzing the economy. An
interesting point:
"Since February 2001, the United States has
lost about 15% of all jobs in the manufacturing sector. Those job losses
haven't been limited to old-economy, metal-bending industries. About 25%
of jobs in the computer and electronics manufacturing sector are gone,
too.
Some of those will return along with demand for
networking equipment, machine tools and PCs. But the vast majority of the
2.7 million jobs lost since the 2001 recession began are the result of
permanent changes in the U.S. economy, a recent report by the Federal
Reserve Bank of New York concludes."
This links in to the discussion on outsourcing and
the Economy. Surely a sad tale and this leakage/flood/disaster will
inevitably get worse..<sigh>..
See http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P58078.asp
.
Thanks!
-- Awaiting more on Capt. Galloway -- -- Gary --
But the metal bending ones are important too. The
question remains, what will citizens do? One possibility of course is to
pay them a dole. They will then be bored -- idle hands and all that -- and
have an entitlement mentality. We have historical examples of the effect
of that on a republic.
============
 On
gasoline prices
Jerry :
Back from a short vacation in the wilds of Arizona
and New Mexico, and I find a copy of a recent Rand report on refining in
the United States to read...
"Boutique fuel specifications have been a
principal cause of some acute regional supply imbalances in recent years,
it was noted. Localized product specifications add cost and complexity to
refinery operations and distribution channels. They tend to reduce
competition and add rigidity to markets because fuel supplies are less
easily moved to deficit regions if manufacturing operations or
distribution channels are disrupted. Imports also are deterred. Again,
when a refinery, pipeline, or other component of the supply chain does go
off-line for maintenance or overhaul, or because of an accident, local
supply and price impacts are potentially greater than in the past."
Even more to the point of capacity and availability
within the United States is the note, "Between 1985 and 2000, average
refinery utilization increased from 78 percent to over 92 percent. This
rate is expected to hold for the foreseeable future."
That's a pretty important point, and it doesn't
reflect local conditions for markets like California (addressed elsewhere
in the report). It's important, even critical, as a 92% utilitisation rate
leaves very little room for major outages at a refinery (see the
California market this last three years for examples) or the loss of
pipeline capacity to a region (the recent loss of the product pipeline to
Phoenix). If there's a major outage, basic supply and demand equations
guarantee that the region affected will see rapid and sharp price
increases and localised shortages - for the less micro- and
macro-economics gifted folks of the world, that means high gasoline prices
and lines at the pumps for the local station.
It's no conspiracy, as so many would like to allege.
It's a simple concept - the number of refineries in the United States has
dropped for decades, although the remaining refineries have become far
more efficient in their operations. The potential for supply disruptions
has increased with larger, more complex refineries producing more product
for given regions, which are subject to failure. Where a larger number of
smaller refineries, running with more potential individual percentage
capacity cushion provided some cushion in the past, today's more efficient
larger refineries have a reduced headroom to handle industry outages and
supply shocks.
Anyone who has even a passing interest in the
gasoline supply, indeed, the entire petroleum refining industry within the
United States should look at this report, including explanations of many
issues of the refining process and marketing of refinery products. It's a
fairly good window on the industry.
There's also a fairly well-balanced discussion of
the effect of environmental regulations, especially with respect to
"boutique fuels", as well as looking at some of the coming
challenges for the industry. While I'm sure some there's some industry
boffin or environmental activist who will take issue with the report's
findings, it's nonetheless compelling reading for the rest of us.
It's available online at :
http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1707/
Those people who can't bear to read all the facts
and just want the barest summary can read the press release at :
http://www.rand.org/hot/press.03/08.28.html
Regards,
John P.
Indeed. Thanks!
======
Two from Tracy Walters:
Subject: Extremely Stupid Award
This guy should receive the “Extremely Stupid”
award … and of course now Homeland Insecurity will create more barriers.
http://www.msnbc.com/news/963814.asp
Subject: Giant sucking sound…
Jerry,
I just called my MicroWarehouse rep to place an
order, and found out that CDW has purchased them. My rep, of course, is no
longer there.
Another one bites the dust to CDW. My choices for
purchases are getting limited. I still buy quite a bit from Insight and
Outpost.com, I wonder which of them will fall next.
Tracy
==================
An inquiry about D-Link
Routers:
Do you know if D-link fixed the problem where the admin password resets
on power failure? It seemed like a security hole you could drive a truck
through.
I am unaware of any such problem. My D-Link
routers are routinely powered down as part of the operation. That does not
change the administrator passwords. It does cause a kind of
"reset" of the registers that contain the address of the modem
the router is talking to. It doesn't "reset" the passwords or
rules.
There is a reset button that will
reset the router to its shipping defaults. That changes the password and
also the base address as well as deletes any special rules you may have
installed. Clearly anyone with physical access to the router could use
that, but that's entirely a different problem. I never heard of problems
of reset on power down.
Jerry
I just switched from an SMC Barricade router to a
Netgear router (I needed to get a WAP). It may be coincidence, but I'm not
getting the lag times before pageloads that I used to get. I knew the lags
were network related because the throughput tester told me I had nearly
90% of promised capacity. We'll see later, but I suspect the old router
was getting addled.
Ed
We have been using D-Link for some time. Our
Hawking router seemed a bit slower, but it's not a fair test.
Following is self
explanatory:
For your information, an open letter from Eric
Raymond and Bruce Perens, co-founders of the Open Source movement.
You may contact the authors at "Eric S.
Raymond" <esr@snark.thyrsus.com> and "Bruce Perens"
<bruce@perens.com>.
Best regards,
S.
--
Response to SCO's Open Letter
From: "Eric S. Raymond" <esr@
snark.thyrsus.com>
Subject: Response to SCO's Open Letter Date:
Tue, 9 Sep 2003 18:05:55 -0400
(For general publication.)
Mr. McBride, in your "Open Letter to the Open
Source Community" your offer to negotiate with us comes at the end of
a farrago of falsehoods, half-truths, evasions, slanders, and
misrepresentations. You must do better than this. We will not attempt to
erect a compromise with you on a foundation of dishonesty.
Your statement that Eric Raymond was "contacted
by the perpetrator" of the DDoS attack on SCO begins the falsehoods.
Mr. Raymond made very clear when volunteering his information and calling
for the attack to cease that he was contacted by a third-party associate
of the perpetrator and does not have the perpetrator's identity to reveal.
The DDoS attack ceased, and has not resumed. Mr. Raymond subsequently
received emailed thanks for his action from Blake Stowell of SCO.
Your implication that the attacks are a continuing
threat, and that the President of the Open Source Initiative is continuing
to shield their perpetrator, is therefore not merely both false and
slanderous, but contradictory with SCO's own previous behavior. In all
three respects it is what we in the open-source community have come to
expect from SCO. If you are serious about negotiating with anyone, rather
than simply posturing for the media, such behavior must cease.
In fact, leaders of the open-source community have
acted responsibly and swiftly to end the DDoS attacks -- just as we
continue to act swiftly to address IP-contamination issues when they are
aired in a clear and responsible manner. This history is open to public
inspection in the linux-kernel archives and elsewhere, with numerous
instances on record of Linus Torvalds and others refusing code in
circumstances where there is reason to believe it might be compromised by
third-party IP claims.
As software developers, intellectual property is our
stock in trade. Whether we elect to trade our effort for money or rewards
of a subtler and more enduring nature, we are instinctively respectful of
concerns about IP, credit, and provenance. Our licenses (the GPL and
others) work with copyright law, not against it. We reject your attempt to
portray our community as a howling wilderness of IP thieves as a baseless
and destructive smear.
We in the open-source community are accountable. Our
source code is public, exposed to scrutiny by anyone who wishes to contest
its ownership. Can SCO or any other closed-source vendor say the same? Who
knows what IP violations, what stripped copyrights, what stolen techniques
lurk in the depths of closed-source code? Indeed, not only SCO's past
representations that it was merging GPLed Linux technology into SCO Unix
but Judge Debevoise's rulings in the last big lawsuit on Unix IP rights
suggest strongly that SCO should clean up its own act before daring to
accuse others of theft.
SCO taxes IBM and others with failing to provide
warranties or indemnify users against third-party IP claims, conveniently
neglecting to mention that the warranties and indemnities offered by SCO
and others such as Microsoft are carefully worded so that the vendor's
liability is limited to the software purchase price, They thus offer no
actual shield against liability claims or damages. They are, in a word,
shams designed to lull users into a false sense of security -- a form of
sham which we believe you press on us solely as posturing, rather than out
of any genuine concern for users. We in the open-source community, and our
corporate allies, refuse to play that dishonest game.
You invite us to negotiate, but you have
persistently refused to state a negotiable claim. You have made
allegations of a million lines of copied code which are mathematically
impossible given the known, publicly accessible history of Linux
development. You have uttered vast conspiracy theories which fail to be
vague only where they are slanderous and insulting. You have already been
compelled to abandon major claims -- such as the ownership of SMP
technology alleged in your original complaint against IBM -- on showings
that they were false, and that you knew or should have known them to be
false,
Accordingly, we of the open-source community do not
concede that there is anything to negotiate. Linux is our work and our
lawful property, the distillation of twelve years of hard work, idealism,
creativity, tears, joy, and sweat by hundreds of thousands of cooperating
hackers all over the world. It is not yours, has never been yours, and
will never be yours.
If you wish to make a respectable case for
contamination, show us the code. Disclose the overlaps. Specify file by
file and line by line which code you believe to be infringing, and on what
grounds. We will swiftly meet our responsibilities under law, either
removing the allegedly infringing code or establishing that it entered
Linux by routes which foreclose proprietary claims.
Yours truly, Eric Raymond Bruce Perens
=================
Subject: All I know about
satellites my dad taught me
Now I know why you kept drumming into us the notion
to ask before borrowing something.
http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=10299
The mishap was caused because 24 bolts were missing
from a fixture in the "turn over cart". Two errors occurred.
First, technicians from another satellite program that uses the same type
of "turn over cart" removed the 24 bolts from the NOAA cart on
September 4 without proper documentation. Second, the NOAA team working
today failed to follow the procedure to verify the configuration of the
NOAA "turn over cart" since they had used it a few days earlier.
Rich Pournelle
Hmm. And see below.
============
Subj: Iraq: grounds for hope,
but not celebration
http://www.aei.org/news/newsID.19153,filter./news_detail.asp
What Iraqis Really Think By Karl Zinsmeister
"...Working with Zogby International survey
researchers, The American Enterprise magazine has conducted the first
scientific poll of the Iraqi public...."
They claim to have used methods developed by Eastern
European pollsters, to get people to answer honestly, despite their
history of police-state conditioning.
70% expect things to be better five years from now.
50% think democracy cannot work in Iraq, 40% think
it can, 10% unsure.
In a forced-choice question about what country to
use as a model, choosing amongst the US, Syria, Saidi Arabia, Iran and
Egypt: US: 37%, Saudi Arabia: 28%, the others lower.
Want Islamic government? Yes: 33%, No: 60% (Shiites:
Yes: 27%, No: 66%)
Rod Montgomery==monty@sprintmail.com
Indeed. But Bush doesn't have to win an election
in Iraq. He does need to win in the United States.
I know you've been interested in micropayments since
forever. Thought you might enjoy the following article in Technology
Review:
<http://www.technologyreview.com/articles/wo_jenkins091003.asp?p=1>
Hope that all is well.
Thanks,
Stephen --
I do miss Millicent... Click here, pay a
dime, all's well...
On that new critical update:
Subject: Botched.
http://news.zdnet.co.uk/software/0,39020381,39116180,00.htm
Roland Dobbins
==================
Subject: Atmospheric Hydrogen
Have you seen this: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2003/09/030902074301.htm
It says that hydrogen released into the upper
atmosphere will be absorbed by OH radicals.
Neil Craig
Given there are plenty of hydrogen sources and so
little hydrogen it's clear there are mechanisms for cleaning up the stuff.
But of course we need to spend a lot of money to study the problem. The
Center for Absorption of Federal Funds ("As long as you're up, get me
a grant.") is needy, you see.
Now I am all for funding a fair number of science
projects but when the scientists get both silly and politically correct
it's time to hand the money to someone else.
====================
I thought I had paid a lot of
attention in my science classes, but I can't figure out sound waves in
space....EM waves yes, but sound waves?
http://dsc.discovery.com/news/afp/20030908/soundwaves.html
What happened to 'In space no one can hear you
scream?".
John
-- John Harlow, President BravePoint
A mind is like a parachute; it works best when fully
opened....
Clearly there has to be some medium, and I can
only guess at what that is. Someone here will know, surely?
<snip> I thought I had paid a lot of attention
in my science classes, but I can't figure out sound waves in space....EM
waves yes, but sound waves?
http://dsc.discovery.com/news/afp/20030908/soundwaves.html
As I read that article, it refered to acoustic
resonances which involved the entire accretion disk/nebula surrounding the
subject compact stellar object. The resonances probably DO have to be very
low amplitude and low frequency due to the low density of the media. But
"il se muovo."
Jim Woosley
=
Right there in the article:
A long standing mystery has been why hot gas in the
central regions of the Perseus cluster has not cooled off over the past 10
billion years to bring a drop in pressure that would draw gas in towards
the galaxy to form trillions of stars.
The researchers suggest that as the sound waves move
through gas, they are eventually absorbed and their energy converted to
heat. This means that sound waves from the black hole in Perseus A may
keep the cluster gas hot.
The black hole is in a gas cluster, it seems. That's
the medium for sound waves. The gas pressure might be close to zero, but
it isn't zero, and I guess it's enough for sound waves. Not all parts of
space are equally empty. -- Steve R. Hastings "Vita est" steve@hastings.org
http://www.blarg.net/~steveha
Sure. Now how is that 'sound' to us since the
medium doesn't extend to here? Clearly we are dealing with compression and
rarefaction in gas, but using the language of sound on this seems bizarre.
=============
<snip> "Since February 2001, the
United States has lost about 15% of all jobs in the manufacturing sector.
Those job losses haven't been limited to old-economy, metal-bending
industries. About 25% of jobs in the computer and electronics
manufacturing sector are gone, too.
The factors missing from that analysis is (a) the
effects of the vast overbuying of capacity under Clinton which helped
stimulate the dotcom explosion (another consequence of the "fever
economy" that stimulated the Clinton surpluses, that we're still
paying for), and (b) the saturation of the home computer market with
"good enough" machines.
Jim Woosley
True enough. The jobs I hate to see gone
are the old metal bending and woodworking jobs; manual trades that allowed
a generation of working class to be middle class.
It may be impossible to get that back and we will
have the employed rich and the rest; which may be a good thing and may
not.
========================
On the NOAA accident:
Nasa's biggest problem (along with the contractors
involved) comes from the fact it has far too many people for far too long.
No ageing bureaucracy of that size is functional, and people _do_ become
compartmentalized to the point where they maintain sanity only by
religiously _not_ caring about the big picture.
I had some hope that "better, faster,
cheaper" would result in smaller crews, less paperwork, and more
decision-making on the floor, but it seems to have been another
bureaucratic catch-phrase whose time has passed anyway.
In my industry, one thing you could be sure of after
an accident like that is the department head being handed an empty box by
the security guard...
Eric Baumgartner
It was a concept by the Administrator. Dan was a
good man. NASA defeated him utterly. That culture will defeat anyone.
In my industry, one thing you could be sure of after
an accident like that is the department head being handed an empty box by
the security guard...
That utterly depends. This is undoubtedly cost plus
accounting with effective indemnification. From the point of view of the
company, there is a better than even chance that this could be a long-term
windfall rather than a liability.
In cases where I've heard of the executive being
handed the empty box, it was for a pattern of failures which had
ultimately lead to a SERIES (not just one) of financial setbacks for the
company (or, after the cheesy head cheese had left, some of his trusted
associates, not all of whom deserved the same fate). And was usually also
marked by a celebratory crowd of rank and file employees to line the path
from the executive's office to the nearest door, despite the lack of
notification. (For one company in particular, the symbol of the senior
executive meeting the more junior executive in his office at the start of
the business day, unannounced, came to be equivalent of the old Russian
symbol of the loaded revolver.)
J
And see below
==================
The Ten Commandments display was removed Wednesday
from the Alabama Supreme Court building. There was a good reason for the
move.
You can't post "Thou Shalt Not Steal" in a
building full of lawyers and Politicians without creating a hostile work
environment.
E.
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