| Monday
May 15, 2006 There was mail
over the weekend. Includes utilities recommendation.
Subject: New Flexible Material Conducts Electricity
http://www.livescience.com/scienceoffiction/060513_new_polymer.html
This really reminds me of a material from science
fiction writers Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle's classic 1974 novel The
Mote in God's Eye. When human beings first encounter a native of the Mote
civilization, they see it rewiring a circuit board by hand with an unusual
sort of 'goop':
Bill Shields
=================
Subject: You might be interested
You and your readers might be interested in Securing
America’s Energy Future -- a new house of representatives study on energy is
out, this is the majority report.
My article here:
http://noblesseoblige.org/wordpress/?p=89
My only comment, Pournelle proves to be
prescient once again. In his seminal work “A Step Further Out” Jerry
predicted something to the effect that Oil would become to valuable to burn.
(good luck finding the book, I have bought aproximately ten copies of this
book over the years, and everytime I have lent it out it has never come
back. The reason has always been something to the effect of “Oh, it was an
important book and I wanted so & so to read it”… so&so then gives the same
story. Results: I no longer have a copy and can’t find one.)
House Report link here:
http://reform.house.gov/UploadedFiles/050806 Majority Staff Energy
Report.pdf
<http://reform.house.gov/UploadedFiles/050806%20
Majority%20Staff%20Energy%20Report.pdf>
Tark
I am working to get Step Farther Out in to shape
for republishing. There has been a minor complication.
==
Subject: Thermal depolymerization plant
Jim Laheta said "Imagine using abundant electricity
(from AFRs) to power thermal depolymerization plants..."
Not necessary!
There is already a TDP plant, operated by Changing
Worlds Technology, in Carthage, Missouri. Changing World's TDP plant already
powers *itself*. It processes the feedstock (currently, turkey offal) into
several output products: a quality oil, some leftover minerals (mostly
carbon), and some gases (methane, butane, etc.). It is not practical to
package up the gases to sell as a product, but they are just dandy as a fuel
to use to run the plant. The plant burns the gases to provide the heat for
the TDP process, so they don't need a nuke plant to help them out.
Their biggest problem, historically, has been that the
oil they produced wasn't cheap enough to compete with oil from wells. The
price of oil has gone up recently, which should help them. Their second
biggest problem is that they have been accused of releasing bad odors: their
plant was shut down by the governor of Missouri because of complaints about
bad odors, from December 2005 to April 2006. The plant is back in operation
now, and the latest news seems to indicate that they have this issue under
control.
They were expecting that, because of worries about Mad
Cow Disease and the like, animal offal would become very cheap, or free. In
Europe, it is no longer legal to grind up animal offal and feed it to other
animals; in the US, it's still legal. So Changing Worlds has to buy their
turkey offal instead of getting it for free. Their next TDP plant will
probably be built in Europe.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermal_depolymerization
http://www.changingworldtech.com/
-- Steve R. Hastings "Vita est" steve@hastings.org
http://www.blarg.net/~steveha
==
Subject: BioDiesel from Algae grown on sewage
If this is true, we should have plenty of fuel in the
future.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=1&ObjectID=10381404
John Harlow, President BravePoint
You have to do the numbers. Southern California
Edison tried to do this with the sewage from Oceanside (and Camp Pendleton);
the results weren't encouraging, but that was 30 years ago.
============
Subject: Energy Independence
Here is an interesting thread on energy independence,
Dr. Pournelle.
http://www.practicalmachinist.com/cgi-bin/ubbcgi/ultimatebb.cgi/topic/15/643.html?
(You may need to add back the question mark if the
link doesn't work.)
Argumentative phrasing in this quote, from about
halfway down, but still facts are facts...
"The lower heating value of gasoline is about 19,000
btu per pound, that of ethanol is 11,550 btu/lb, and methanol is only 8,600
btu/lb. "
"Engines are machines that convert heat energy into
mechanical power. "Can you see the relationship ? "Can you see that 1 gallon
of gas is equal to 1 2/3 gallons of Ethanol "Can you see that 1 gallon of
gas equals 2 1/2 gallons of Methanol
"Can you see, that to go the same distances you need
much larger fuel tanks for alcohol "Can you see that "fuel" mileages in cars
WILL GO DOWN (not up !) when we run more alcohol? "Would you consider it
good if a Methanol car did 10 MPG while a Gasoline car did 24. (Guess
what...they are the same!)
"Can you see that 3$ a gallon for gas and 2 $ a gallon
for ethanol, means the ethanol will cost you 3.66$ to go the same distance
as gas ?
"Can you see that alcohol absorbs water from the air,
and will dilute itself, when ever exposed to moisture, making it even less
powerful. "Can youu understand that a Ethanol economy would require 66 %
more gas trucks on the road ,just to handle current requirements
"Can you understand that there are not enough french
fries cooked to put everyone in bio-fuel"
Charles Brumbelow
=========
Subject: RAH is back
Jerry
In his first novel, Beyond This Horizon, Robert
Heinlein had people screening their potential offspring for genetic
diseases. Well, it has begun:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-2178178,00.html
Ed
=============
Subject: Here's a utilities
page you might be interested in, Dr. Pournelle
Hello Dr. Pournelle – an acquaintance of mine just
pointed me to this list of freeware utilities. Looks pretty good, and a
decent resource for your readers and you.
I have no interest in this page, just thought I’d pass
this info on to you. Seems to be free of any malware too.
http://www.econsultant.com/i-want-freeware-utilities/index.html
Regards,
Greg Trent
=============
Subject: Michael J. Totten: The Palestinians of 1948
I'm sure that I may have recommended Michael Totten's
Middle Easter coverage previously. But I still think his is the most
interesting "nose on the ground" I've come across regarding this subject.
Also, he spent time in Kurdistan & wrote about it -- fascinating.
Julie
http://www.michaeltotten.com/archives/001137.html
============
The following is
representative of many letters:
Subject: Migration, Not Immigration
It seems that most folk feel about like I do. This
country was based on immigration. A slow, steady flow of new people, new
ideas, new values keeps the blood tuned up.
However, if our friends who died in the Alamo, trying
to prevent Mexican domination of Texas, could come to San Antonio now----
Taco Cabana, last time I visited, was a good place to
eat. Not sure I ever saw an immigrant inside their walls, however.
Americanized immigrants, maybe.
Now then. Migration, has often been accompanied with
warfare, sooner or later. Looks like Santa Anna won, later.
George (Jim) Hebbard ChE PE Lithia, FL USA
The Melting Pot works only when given a chance. The
Imperial Courts have decreed that requiring English is unconstitutional and
ballots have to b e distributed in Hmong and Spanish and such, and most
government services can't be withheld from illegal immigrants, and multi-culturalism
is more important than the Melting Pot. The result will be internal gang
warfare, possibly within my lifetime, certainly within most of yours.
We have sown the wind, and we sow it still.
=============
Subject: A reply to "A note from Chaos Manor" mailing
to subscribers
Dr. Pournelle:
I find it quite timely that you are creating a
California 1910 reader at the same time as the California Senate Judiciary
Committee voted to approve SB 1437, which removes words like "Mom" and "Dad"
from school textbooks. I hear it is expected to pass through y'all state
Senate, too. I believe the sponsor is "Zelda" from the old Dobie Gillis
show. Weird.
I'm sure this will be challenged somewhere... but
where?
I have no children yet, but plan on starting a family
right after next month's wedding (at the age of 45 now is a good time).
We're debating home schooling versus sending our future little ones to a
local Episcopal school that comes highly recommended. Independent of where
we send future kids, I would still be interested in your reader, and future
ones as well. I was taught to read at age 3 (phonetic flashcards and a lot
of patience from Mom) and I want kids to have the same opportunity. I'm also
interested in your wife's program. Could you send me the link, if and when
you have time?
Best regards,
Bill Kelly Houston (MBA in two weeks... finally)
Roberta's reading program can be
found here.
I'm working on getting the reader set up in pdf
format.
===========
Subject: RE:
Rome and the Barbarians
Good morning, sir.
> The professor, Kenneth Harl, specializes in
> researching the economic history of the Roman
> Empire and its frontiers.
I'm going to have to put that on my list.
I haven't listened to these lectures of Dr. Harl's,
but I have listened to his "Era of the Crusades" series (http://www.teach12.com/ttc/assets/
coursedescriptions/390.asp?id=390&d
=Era+of+the+Crusades&pc=Professor170) , which I would also recommend.
He covers the background of the Eastern Roman Empire,
the rise of Islam, and the situation in Western Europe; the crusades and
their side-effects; and their aftermath.
I've listened to other "Teaching Company" lectures
also, and the were all very good.
Rob
============
The Intelligence
Discussion Continues:
Subject: Iraqi Intelligence Estimate Post Hussein
Dear Jerry,
Generals Schwarzkopf and Zinni have both indicated
that CENTCOM (the Command, not General Franks personally) had its own
estimate, since fully validated, of what the consequences and results would
be of removing Hussein. And the likely troop strength required to stabilize
the country were they ordered to remove Hussein and/or the Ba'athist Party.
And that they had made detailed contingency plans based on this estimate.
Army Chief of Staff Eric Shinseki relied on this institutional CENTCOM view
in making his own pre-war testimony to Congress. For which action he was
humiliated and retired early. Former Secretary of State and Gulf War I
Chairman of the JCS Powell has also now said he issued a direct warning to
the same effect to President Bush and Secretary Rumsfeld.
Therefore one or more someones provided a strong
rationale to justify Secretary Rumsfeld and President Bush in ignoring
everything CENTCOM had learned and planned over 12 years, and also the
advice of the former JCS Chairman with the most direct experience of Iraq.
Who were they? The CIA product I'd most like to read at this point is its
pre-invasion assessment of what Iraqi society would look like post-Hussein
and what had to be done to stabilize the country. Surely CIA's analysts
produced one in the run-up to invading Iraq? We've heard rumors that Chalabi
was already distrusted by CIA. Did they say anything else con on the concept
or just indicate that young maidens would strew flower petals in the troops'
way? By the way, this latter assessment would naturally provide the
President with a 'balanced' view to off-set CENTCOM's and DIA's own gloomier
institutional outlook.
The matter is purely academic at this time. It
therefore is a good starting point for Congressional policy makers to
determine whether any further funding for the CIA's Directorate of
Intelligence is a worthwhile investment for the USA. I see no reason this
particular 'product' shouldn't be declassified for the citizens to evaluate,
too.
Regards,
Mark
You make a good point. The neocons and the
egregious Frum had their plans and objectives, and everything was viewed
through those blinders. Why the military professionals were ignored is a
very complex story. Part of it was conflict: the old order generals were
resisting the remaking of the army, and thus had earned the distrust of the
civilian controllers. Irsaeli intelligence gave estimates in conflict with
the estimates that made their way to the Oval Office.
We have an intelligence crisis, and putting up a
superbureaucracy on top of the CIA which was itself a superbureaucracy to
make a single estimate out of those from State, Defense, Army, Navy,
Commerce, and then had to be supplemented with NSA.
Pournelle's
IRON LAW OF
BUREAUCRACY applies to intelligence organizations as much as to any
other.
============
Subject: Copyright enforcement
Dear Jerry:
Tell Cory Doctorow that he has no reason to fear the
criminal penalties from the DMCA. The U.S. Attorney and the FBI refuse to
investigate complaints, much less enforce that law....unless the target is
some poor schmo who lacks the the wherewithal to mount an effective defense
and the incident is guaranteed to make headlines in a way that reassures the
Public that the law is being enforced.
I speak from direct personal experience on this,
having been told (wrongly) by one FBI agent that there are no criminal
penalties in the statutes for copyright infringement and that not all laws
are enforced. (This is a correct statement reflective of the notion of
"prosecutorial discretion" when it is applied to cases against very large
media conglomerates).
Oh, wait. Doctorow is one of those little guys, isn't
he? Never mind.
Regards,
Francis Hamit
=================
A question from a reader:
Subject: Microsoft excel metadata and change
tracking
Dr. Pournelle,
I have a problem and a few questions you or your
readers may be able to help with. I have some excel spreadsheets that have
been tampered with, and I'm trying to find out who altered them and what
they did. I understand that office products store metadata in the file that
may track this information, so here are my questions:
Would any stored metadata help me determine what user
altered the files? Would any stored metadata tell me what any particular
user did to the files? Would any stored metadata help me recover the
document from before the changes?
And the biggie...
Does anyone know of any software that would let me
view this metadata and pull out the information I need?
I know word stores versioning data and sometimes
appears to store this whether the track changes option is selected or not,
so I'm hoping that excel has something similar that can be pulled out of the
file.
Thank you in advance, and also thanks to any readers
who may have some info that might help with this little problem. A quick
google search turned up 10 links for people who want to sell me new and used
excel metadata...
Sean Long
===============
On Intelligence and the
Restless Legions
Dear Jerry:
As I recall, Eric Shinseki was the General designated
by the Army to manage the transformation to "The Army After Next". He was
the one who formed the Stryker Brigade, which was originally a very large
"proof of concept". The Army is always changing and it has a strategic
vision that runs decades ahead of that of the politicians who are most
concerned about the next election and keeping their party in power.
Rumsfeld is one of those businessmen who thinks the
government should run like a business and in this he plays very well with
our MBA President, whose own training doesn't tell him anything different.
The Army, on the other hand, is not that interested in maximum efficiency
since it raises the risk of failure in battle to unacceptable levels. Rather
than "least cost, least effort", their measure of efficiency is "Ample
sufficiency for all contingencies" because anything else risks failure that
is catastrophic. You lose the war and that's pretty much the end of the
enterprise.
So, what we had was a gigantic cultural clash where,
since the military always bows to civilian authority, they were predestined
to lose. Eric Shinseki got screwed for doing his job, and doing it well.
Giving his best judgment and advice to those over him. Note that he went
quietly and said little. In some countries there would have been tanks on
the street the next day, but that is not how we do things here. What did
happen was startling enough. Generals retired, some rather early in their
career path, so they would then be free to speak out and oppose the madness.
This is a path not without risk since they can be recalled to active duty at
the whim of the people they are criticizing. Both military custom and the
UCMJ prevent those in the ranks from speaking, so their generals spoke for
them. Not with a single voice, since we are still a democracy, but in a way
that has not been seen since the Civil War.
The problem has never been that the Army and the rest
of the U.S. Military were a bunch of old fogies who simply couldn't get with
the program but that they knew the program proposed was hasty, ill conceived
and likely to bring ruin on the very institution it was supposed to
transform. They HAD a plan, and in fact they think the next three
transformations out, like a good chess player.
The way that General Shinseki was dismissed, to use
Rumsfeld's own words against him, was "not helpful". Rather it produced a
cold fury against those responsible, one that slopped over into the
Intelligence Community, who are also soldiers, and ensured that every error
of this administration would be highlighted brilliantly.
Sincerely,
Francis Hamit
For other observations of an earlier time when the
Army was being remade, see THIS KIND OF WAR, and Ted Fehrenbach's thoughts
on the subject.
=============
Subject: Letter from England
The blood-letting in Iraq continues: <http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-2180931,00.html>
I led the intercessions at the Minster Sunday, and
included the following personal prayer: "Both sides are dealing clumsily
with a strike, offending their potential allies, and students are now very
concerned with passing their degrees and graduating. None of us owns this
community of scholars, and continuing as we are is a path to disaster.
Father, please give these administrators and lecturers the wisdom--so far
missing--so that they can find a solution that is good for all in our
community." That triggered a long discussion at coffee after the service--
apparently I'm hardly alone with these concerns. Meanwhile both sides
continue to play chicken. I'm particularly critical of the
administration--they want to run the university as a business, but as former
academics, they seem to lack the basic managerial competence to actually
carry it off. <http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/education/4768037.stm>
A faint light of hope in Northern Ireland? <http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/4769945.stm>
Blair works to rescue his historical reputation. <http://politics.guardian.co.uk/publicservices/story/0,,1774958,00.html>
<http://education.guardian.co.uk/schools/story/0,,1774972,00.html>
<http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article484129.ece>
<http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article484130.ece>
My known ancestry in America and the British Isles is
similar--mostly gentry and higher gentry--except that once they reached
America, the percentage being killed in civil wars or executed for treason
dropped precipitantly to zero. I suspect most of us would find this to be
the case. (Please note that everyone's *known* ancestry is probably similar.
Families don't remember the peasants, just the knights and kings.) <http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,6-2180698,00.html>
Economic comment. <http://news.independent.co.uk/business/comment/article484464.ece>
-- Harry Erwin, PhD, Program Leader, MSc Information
Systems Security, University of Sunderland.
<http://scat-he-g4.sunderland.ac.uk/~harryerw> Weblog at:
<http://scat-he-g4.sunderland.ac.uk/~harryerw/blog/index.php>
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