| Tuesday,
May 9, 2006 === Cleaning up some
back mail. This is SHORT SHRIFT time. ===
Subject: Heritability of Intelligence
Jerry:
In the Canadian Arctic, one winter, our 5 Shot-hole
Drillers got into a Poker Game with our 3 Eskimo 'Environment Momnitors'.
One of the Drillers, self-proclaimed best at Poker,
was walking away from the game, late at night.
"Neil, there are _no_ stupid Eskimos! Between the
Polar Bears, and the Blizzards, the Dumb ones must never have had kids!"
Neil Frandsen
yes, the 3 Eskimos had cleaned the Drillers out! Grin.
=============
Subject: Full employment at NASA
Dr. Pournelle, You once described NASA's space shuttle
project as bloated sort of full-employment program for leftover employees
from the Apollo project.
Reading this news article I am forced to the sad
conclusion that matters at NASA are still as you describe.
http://www.flatoday.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?
AID=/20060426/NEWS02/604260385/1007/NEWS02
NASA chief defends approach to moon
"...The agency also is no closer to solving what
Griffin described as its biggest challenge -- shifting its operational
workforce from shuttle and space station duties to the new moon vehicles..."
Take care, Winchell Chung
============
Subject: Popular Mechanics Fuel comparisons
Dr. Pournelle, Popular Mechanics seems to have done it
again. They crunched the numbers and published an article comparing the
various fuel alternatives. In the article, they went so far as to compare
what a trip using the various fuels would actually cost. It is available in
the article as a .pdf file at the bottom of the first page.
The URL is:
http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/earth/2690341.html?page=1&c=y
It makes for interesting reading.
Jeff Hitt
============
On Linux
Jerry,
First some qualifications:
I was one of the "guys" that ported Unix to the 486
and 80860 at Intel in 89-90. I was there when a young college student named
Linus called asking for example code to start writing a kernel for the x86.
I was and am a big fan of the Unix derivatives. My favorite is Mach which
Apple OSX is based on.
That being said, I've made my living since 1994 as a
consultant writing Windows device drivers. Trust me when I say this, down at
ring 0, Windows is not so pretty. NT and it's popular descendants Win2K and
WinXP are big improvements over Windows 3.X and Windows 9X, but they are
still a hodge podge of interfaces down in driver land. You just haven't
learned how to swear until you have single stepped one line of driver code
and re-booted all day long.
However, as much as I like Linux, consider the
following:
The other day I wanted to add my new NVIDIA 6800
graphics card to Linux Fedora Core 4. It has 2 DVI output and will drive two
flat panel displays nicely. On Windows, I simply install the drivers, right
click on the desktop, goto settings, and turn on the other display. On
Linux, I found that Fedora Core 4 would not work with my dual display, even
with the latest NVIDIA driver. After fooling around for a night and checking
the web, I was still not up. Please understand, I can get the kernel
sources, and go to. Once a Unix kernel guy, always a Unix kernel guy. But it
was just not worth my time. I just unplugged the second display.
Another comment. While driver land is pretty ugly
under Windows, consider this. Winhec is once a year. For $2K you can go to
many classes on driver development. Even www.microsoft.com/hwdev is a major
resource. Every few years Microsoft has driver development classes. If you
happen to get a Dell or HP as a customer or even just happen to get the
attention of the right folks at Microsoft, you will suddenly find yourself
the center of more attention than you knew existed.
None of this is true for Linux. Don't know about
Apple. I pray for them nightly now that they've gone IA32 (it will always be
X86 to me - damn marketers).
That's my 3.1415 cents.
Phil
=
Jerry,
One other comment on Microsoft. If they went open
source for most of the OS like Apple did, a lot of their security problems
would get identified and fixed. Of course, a lot of burried bodies would
also surface. Security through Obscurity is one of the stupidest things I
ever heard.
Phil
===========
Subject: Why The Upsurge Of AIDS In Blacks?
Dr. P,
Interesting:
"It is one of the most puzzling mysteries of the AIDS
epidemic: Why did blacks, in little more than a dozen years, become nine
times as likely as whites to contract a disease once associated almost
exclusively with gay white men?
Two researchers say they found the answer in an
unlikely place: prison...
...They discovered that the surge in black AIDS
patients -- particularly women -- since the early 1980s closely tracked the
increase in the proportion of black men in America's prisons, which by the
1990s had become vast reservoirs of HIV, the virus that causes AIDS.
The percentage of prisoners who were black increased
from 40 percent in 1982 to well over half in 1996, according to government
data. At the same time, get-tough sentencing policies more than doubled the
prison population, producing even more infected black men who passed the
disease on to black women after they were released...
...Part of the reason for the rapid spread of AIDS
among African Americans is that so many black men spend time behind bars,
Johnson said. About one out of 12 black men are in jail or prison, compared
with one in 100 white men; at current rates, a third of all black males born
today will do time...
...Whatever the cause, the AIDS gap is not going away.
Other studies suggest that half of all prisoners engage in homosexual sex.
But safe-sex programs, key to controlling AIDS in the gay community, are
unwelcome inside prison walls..."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/
article/2006/03/08/AR2006030802201.html
Don --
Donald W. McArthur
"What ought to be done with the man who invented
the celebrating of anniversaries? Mere killing would be too light." -- Mark
Twain (1835-1910)
=============
Jerry P:
Neither Hansen nor any other climate scientist has
described the actions that are necessary, in exact detail, to bring about a
turn around in ten years. The reason is obvious: It involves substantial
changes in the plans of most of the world's populations that do not enjoy
the US level of consumption. While they will describe what the US should do,
they don't include the fact that China, India, and a few others with the
potential to develop levels of consumption of significance would have to do
their part in the equation or it is all for naught. The interesting thing is
that China and India reaching the US level of consumption of fossil fuels is
likely not possible with the known resources available.
The reason that the demand on petroleum products will
drive the costs too high for them to afford with their level of technical
and economic development. Anyone in the petro-chemical industry will tell
you frankly that $2.00 a gallon gas is long gone. And it will not get
significantly cheaper in the future but will continue to rise. Dream your
dreams, but face the facts as known, not as you wish. So global consumption
of petro-chemicals at the present rate, extrapolated over developing
populations, cannot happen due to scarcity of resources. One wild card on a
temporary basis is coal, but that is a more serious problem that has to be
addressed as the pollution from coal burning in developing countries, which
is likely to happen when oil prices continue to rise, will be a major air
pollution problem.
G
=========
Re: Abolish FEMA
Jerry:
You will note that the proposal to abolish FEMA
doesn't replace it with anything like Civil Defense. The proposal is to
replace FEMA with. . .another FEMA.
Steve
=
Subject: "No Place To Run"
Apologies if you've mentioned this already. The Civil
Defense prescription sounds a lot like yours.
http://worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=49976
Tom Brosz
============
Judicial Tampering with Voting Demographics
I read
http://www.jerrypournelle.com/view/view393.html#emperor and
http://www.jerrypournelle.com/view/view406.html#Monday (have I
missed any?)
Your military and education points were no surprise. The judicial
tampering with voting looks to have done far more damage to America, and is
something that I had not learned anywhere else.
Datum: Many years ago I read an old book (estimated about 1940's) by
someone I don't remember who explained that "family" used to mean "family
business". Not anymore.
Which has me thinking "voter" at the time of the founding fathers mean
CEOs of the family businesses. So that expansion of the right to vote to
include more males, lead to laborers running the farms and factories instead
of the family CEOs (1). (I do not have warm feelings for CEOs of not family
businesses who are basically hiring’s, managers, etc.) The expansion of the
vote to women did much the same to families (2).
I think I'm finally beginning to understand what Ben Franklin mean by
republic. My opinion is the judicial tamperings are what changed the
republic into the current democracy.
(1) This lead to the unwarranted & unnecessary interference of
Legislatures in the innards of businesses. (2) Genderized the vote, got
government involved in everything to do between men and women, etc. (3) As
you've noted, college students who are not family CEOs, do gross things with
their power to vote.
Scott Rich
I have a ton of mini-essays, so yes, you've
missed some, and it's my fault. I need to go over this site and collect a
lot of stuff into subject matter pages. Sigh.
But the erection of the Supreme Court into
a superlegislature is what will eventually force us to Empire. The emperor
will be a friend of the people protecting the people from the courts. The
courts will have got us used to rule without consent of the governed.
For the courts to abrogate consent of the
governed in favor of some abstract Rawls-like principles was the beginning
of the end of the republic. We could survive the imperial presidency and
congressional usurpations. We cannot survive when the notion of consent of
the governed is so treated.
===========
Subject: rebuttal to Scott
Cardinal's mail of Thursday
Mr. Cardinal says in his mail that Linux is for people
that like to tinker with their systems vs. using them, because it takes
work.
I'll counter by asking how much time is invested by
Windows users in keeping their systems deloused of viruses/spyware/rootkits/etc.,
and the inevitable re-imaging every 12-18 months.
The SuSE 10 release I set up as a dual-boot on my HP
Pavilion has all the basic tools he expects: browser, e-mail, office suite,
etc. I added desktop icons for photo management, archive files (WinZip
equivalent), etc. from the menu. I downloaded Eclipse for developing code,
which I would have had to do on either platform. I'll concede that some of
the other distributions have become server-oriented and don't provide much
of a desktop, but there are certainly enough that do (I'll recommend the *Ubuntu
distro's for those looking for a well-featured Linux desktop).
-- Bob Halloran Jacksonville FL
==========
Civilization of Deception.
http://antiprotester.blogspot.com/2006/04/
life-in-iraq-part-ii-civilization-of.html
--- Roland Dobbins
=============
Subject: Rosslyn, Templars,
Gypsies and the Battle of Bannockburn.
Rosslyn, Templars, Gypsies and the Battle of
Bannockburn.
http://heritage.scotsman.com/myths.cfm?id=2213682005
- Roland Dobbins
I am convinced that many Templars and probably
the fleet went to Scotland after Philip The Monster suppressed the order.
==========
Next step in pirating: Faking a company.
http://www.iht.com/bin/print_ipub.php?file=/
articles/2006/04/27/business/nec.php
--- Roland Dobbins
================
War privatisation talks in Warsaw.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4950004.stm
- Roland Dobbins
=========
On Fusion
Subject: Fusion Power
Dear Dr Pournelle,
Some further thoughts and information on fusion as a
future power source. First, a declaration of interest and a disclaimer: I
work at Culham in the UK, the home of JET, the biggest fusion device in the
world, but I am NOT a physicist. I'm an ex-electronics engineer now running
the quality group.
I believe you and your correspondents are too
pessimistic regarding the role of fusion - there have been major advances in
the science over the last ten years and the strong feeling now is that
building a working power plant is primarily an engineering problem. Not a
trivial problem (!) but do-able without a fundamental breakthrough in
theory. Not in the same category as "cavorite paint or travel through
Alderson points".
I absolutely agree with you that for the short/medium
term we need fission plants, both in the US and the UK. As you say, in a
sensible regulatory climate, built to a standard design and in quantity they
are cheap and well understood. Modern designs are intrinsically safe and
generate much lower quantities of active waste. The problem with this comes
in 30-50 years as uranium is not an abundant resource. If the whole world
has adopted fission you are going to run into supply/cost problems. Of
course, this is not a issue if you start building fast breeder power plants
but this really does raise issues of weapons proliferation and security.
This is where fusion comes in.
Over the last few years a "fast-track" to fusion power
has been mapped out aiming for the first commercial power plants coming on
stream in 35-40 years time. Not as a blue skies dream but a hard headed
assessment of what can be done. For the last 50 years fusion has been a
science/research activity and we are only now moving into the
engineering/exploitation phase. Fusion probably could have been made to work
earlier but there just has been no need - energy has been cheap. It was one
of the pioneers of fusion, Lev Artsimovitch, who, when asked when fusion
would be ready, replied, "Fusion will be ready when society needs it."
Mr Erbach refers to "the European Iter fusion
collaboration" He is right that ITER is the next step in fusion but it is
not a European project, it is world project, although it will be built in
France -10% of the cost will come from US taxpayers. The full list of
partners are the USA, Japan, China, South Korea, Russia, India and Europe -
each contributing 10% apart from Europe which provides 50% as host (yes, I
know that adds up to 110%. India only joined at the end of 2005 and it was
decided to use the extra 10% as contingency). ITER, which will take about
ten years to build, will not produce electricity but will break even - i.e.
produce more power than is put in. ITER is itself part of a wider plan. On a
similar timescale a materials test facility will be designed and built
(developing long lasting and low activation structural materials is one of
the engineering challenges on the road to a commercial power plant) and a
number of other issues tackled. ITER's main role is to optimise the design
of "DEMO", the first fusion power plant able to produce electricity,
starting operations in 25-30 years. This in turn leads to commercial plants
in 40 years or so.
ITER and DEMO are both conventional aspect ratio
tokamaks, as you point out a brute force approach (in tokamaks size really
does matter!) but the power plants they lead to should definitely not be
uneconomic. In the end one of the other approaches to fusion may turn out to
be better (spherical tokamaks, stellarators, various types of pinch device,
or inertial fusion) but tokamaks are certainly the best understood and
furthest developed. The present thinking is to push on with the one we know,
get it working and then make improvements. If we keep looking for the "best"
option fusion will never happen.
Sorry to go on - I've got to stop preaching! - but I
have seen a number of discussions on the web recently where the advances of
the last few years and the increased interest and activity across the world
have not been appreciated. Fusion is not an immediate energy source but will
be needed in the future and if it is to be ready when it is needed work has
to start now.
If anyone would like more, either about fusion in
general or the "fast track" the following UKAEA Fusion and ITER web sites
have stacks of information and links.
http://www.fusion.org.uk/index.html
http://www.iter.org/index.htm
Regards and best wishes,
Alasdair Urquhart
=========
Subject: Frum, Pareto
Dr. Pournelle,
Thought you might enjoy this article about the
egregious Frum and Pareto:
http://www.batr.net/batrcolumnists/modules/news/article.php?storyid=173
You don't know me, but you might remember the urban
legend about the wheelchair-bound grandma who beat up six airport security
guards. I found it linked on your site. I was the one who wrote it.
Thank you,
Bob Wallace
==========
Subject: Frightening if True...
I have no way to verify the accuracy of this, but it
is frightening if true, Dr. Pournelle.
http://www.veteransforcommonsense.org/print.cfm?ID=7123
"Magnequench UG, although still headquartered in
Indianapolis, IN, is the sole provider of specialized magnets for military
aircraft systems. But it closed down its manufacturing arm permanently in
2004 and finished relocating operations to China at that time, with its
operations now solely controlled by Chinese companies with direct ties to
the Chinese government
"Magnequench magnets are produced from a unique
patented process of sintering specialty metals. They are used by various
electronics and aviation companies, but Magnequench's primary client is the
Pentagon, leaving the U.S. in a rather precarious position with China.
Enjoying 85% ownership of the world's market of rare earth metals, required
for its magnet production, Magnequench's factories are now located in Batou,
China. It is there that the world's only operating rare earth mine exists.
Thus, China now owns a monopoly on the manufacture of missile magnets which
the U.S. military is dependent upon for its most sophisticated technology
and weaponry."
Charles Brumbelow
===========
Subject: Mac Mini Running Windows XP Pro
That's what I've got now. It's really fast and really
nice, and until I get saturated by playing Civ IV, it'll probably mostly run
Windows. Making it work is adventurous, but not that much more complicated
than installing Windows XP Pro on any PC. How do you convince Norton that
you really want to run the MS Firewall?
-- Harry Erwin, PhD,
Program Leader, MSc Information Systems Security,
University of Sunderland.
===========
From a reliable source,
a nurse in Iraq:
Cub:
Time for me to let you know some things I have
learned. First, I have a new respect for Marine officers, specifically at
the BN level, to include down to O-3. Have not had contact with the 1's or
2's, so cannot comment. I feel woefully inadequate (although someone told me
to NEVER show that) from a military standpoint, and am trying to soak up
this Marine stuff. Went on a moto hump, 50# pack, flak (with SAPI's), kevlar,
for 50 minutes. Damn near died. I have a lot of work to do to get in better
shape. I have, however, lost a total of 16# since arriving at Camp
Pendleton.
BTW, Gunny Jxxxxxxx is aboard Camp Fallujah.
Continuing, this activation has brought me to realize what the Marine Corps
is, what happens to the men and the crushing burden of responsibility that
the officers and senior enlisted have to take care of their Marines and
bring them home. Have also realized (you are gonna like this one) that this
is not about getting to do cool stuff, toys, guns, and bravado. None of
that, and the people who talk like that are dangerous. The job is dangerous,
and some people could get hurt, or worse. My responsibility is to take care
of my Marines and Sailors, and be a good officer. I know I told you I
understood when we last had eye lock, but I say now that I really understand
and that level rises each day with more experience.
You said to stay in my lane. Done. My responsibilities
demand that. I have the opportunity to go outside the wire on short convoys
to deliver detainees to Abu Graib, or release into the town. Have not gone
yet, but will before I leave here. I AM NOT going to do something that would
be considered taking chances. Not looking for any accolades or action, just
want to see what my Marines do. Nothing more than that.
I really don't need anything, one of the hard things
here is controlling my appetite and not eating too much. Would like any
reading you think would be informative for me to learn about USMC stuff, if
you can swing that. Email me when you have the chance.
============
More on Swift
Swift Provides Quick Delivery in North Persian Gulf
By Journalist 3rd Class Bobby Northnagle, Commander, U.S. Naval Forces
Central Command/Commander, U.S. 5th Fleet Public Affairs
MANAMA, Bahrain (NNS) -- The U.S. Navy's only High-Speed Vessel, Swift (HSV
2), demonstrated its unique ability for rapid response and logistical
support when it delivered a replacement rigid-hull inflatable boat (RHIB)
270 nautical miles in less than 24 hours, April 26.
Swift, currently leased from Australia and deployed to the U.S. 5th
Fleet, was at sea in the Persian Gulf off the coast of Bahrain when it
received a call to deliver the replacement RHIB to USS Lake Champlain (CG
57), which was supporting maritime security operations (MSO) in the North
Persian Gulf. Lake Champlain's RHIB was on its way back to the ship after
delivering security personnel and food to the Iraqi oil platforms when an
aggressive storm hit and damaged the boat. With Lake Champlain's other RHIB
inoperable and awaiting repair, the closest replacement RHIB was in Bahrain.
The Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser is conducting MSO in the
North Persian Gulf, which is critical for the safety of the local Iraqi oil
platforms. These platforms are vital assets to Iraq's economy, so Lake
Champlain needed a replacement RHIB immediately.
"The RHIB was too big to be lifted by a Desert Hawk, [the only available
helicopter]," said Cmdr. Tom Gerstner, deputy director of logistics at
Commander, U.S. Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT) in Bahrain. "But we
needed to get the RHIB and the spare part [to the North Persian Gulf]
quickly."
Swift was the only vessel with the speed and capability to deliver the
RHIB in such a short time frame due to its wide array of features, such as
its size, large mission deck, crane, vehicle ramp, maneuverability and its
navigation system.
Swift crew members loaded the boat on the high-speed vessel and departed
Bahrain on the evening of April 26. By morning, it arrived at Lake
Champlain's location to make the delivery.
"We were able to get the replacement RHIB to Lake Champlain without the
ship even putting out a CASREP," said Capt. Rob Morrison, Swift's commanding
officer, referring to the standard "casualty report" that units use to
notify others that a piece of equipment is not working and sets the chain of
events in motion to repair or replace it. "This was a great example of how,
with Swift, our capacity for rapid reaction has accelerated beyond the speed
of the planning process."
"One of the keys to our quick reaction was our electronic navigation
capability," he said. "When NAVCENT asked us how quickly we could get to the
NAG, we were able to lay out a track and give them an answer right away."
Gerstner agreed and said the choice to use Swift for the delivery was
based on its capabilities.
"It's a real flexible [vessel]," he said. "It can be used for
transportation, logistics, medical evacuation, command and control, and
special operations. It only has an eight-foot draft, which means it can go
closer into shore [than most ships]."
MSO set the conditions for security and stability in the maritime
environment, as well as complement the counter-terrorism and security
efforts of regional nations. These operations deny international terrorists
use of the maritime environment as a venue for attack or to transport
personnel, weapons or other material.
For related news, visit the Commander, U.S. Naval Forces Central
Command/Commander, U.S. 5th Fleet Navy NewsStand page at www.news.navy.mil/local/cusnc/.
============
Jerry,
Probably a trite political observation, and this may
have surfaced from reading something that stuck in my subconscious until now
(while addressing libertarian impulses in the two major parties to another
correspondent), but I've just realized that the US DOES have a coalition
government -- it's just that here, the coalitions have formed into the two
major parties prior to the election.
Thus we have the "Democratic" party which can be
viewed roughly as a coalition of what in Europe might be called Green,
Social Democratic, Labor, Farmers, Civil Libertarians, and Socialist
parties; and the "Republican" party, which can be viewed roughly as a
coalition of what in Europe might be called Christian Democratic, Patriotic
Conservative, Isolationist, Industrialist, Rational Libertarians, and
Constitutionalist parties. (Some of these terms are a bit arbitrary because
US conditions are different than European, and some of the extreme members
of the Democratic party view any designation of "Nationalist" as equivalent
to fascism; and some of the distinctions may be too fine -- for example,
there is probably considerable overlap between potential Christian
Democrats, Patriotic Conservatives, and Constitutionalists, and of course
Social Democrats and Socialists have always been a fine hair to split.) But
the formation of the "ruling coalitions" at the expressed party level rather
than in post-election politics accounts for much of the different dynamics
of US and European politics; and conversely, any new party to form in the US
has to pull a coalition together out of the aggrieved parts of the expressed
parties, against both tradition and common interest. For example, Perot's
Reform Party in 1992-6 drew from the minority of non-Socialist Social
Democrats, Labor, Patriotic Conservative, Civil and Rational Libertarians,
and Constitutionalist elements of the two expressed parties, but not
universally, and it's greater appeal to Republican factions probably put
Clinton in the White House for two terms due to the reduced fragmentation of
the Democratic coalition. (Not that either Bush I or Dole campaigned like
they really wanted the job. And it is amusing to consider that if the Reform
Party hadn't been captured by Pat Buchanan Isolationists in 2000, it might
have remained enough of a force to assure Gore's election. God save us all.)
As someone with considerable more expertise in matters
political than I ("i-am-but-an-egg") I'm confident you can find the
weaknesses (and strengths, if any) in this argument. But I think it makes an
interesting mirror to view American politics through.
JW
The problem is in the primary process.
We should not have primaries for national
office. I am not convinced of their utility even for local offices, at least
not for partisan office.
We no longer have traditional political
parties that will compromise to win office. I see this will take a lot
longer than I have time to deal with it.
Perot's Reform Party, coupled with a real
"Take Back Your Government" reform movement to build a real party, could
have done well. Perot seems to have been all ears for a while then something
happened to him. I'd swear it was as if someone slipped him a Mickey.
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