picture of me

Chaos Manor Home Page > View Home Page > Current Mail Page > Chaos Manor Reviews Home Page

THE VIEW FROM CHAOS MANOR

View 564 March 30 - April 30, 2009

 

read book now

HOME

VIEW

MAIL

Columns

BOOK Reviews

Chaos Manor Reviews

Platinum Subscription:

  CHAOS MANOR REVIEWS

FOR BOOKS OF THE MONTH 1994-Present Click HERE

Last Week's View           Next Week's View

emailblimp.gif (23130 bytes)

For Current Mail click here.

Atom FEED from Chaos Manor

This site looks better if you set your default font to Georgia.

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday

Highlights this week:

  For boiler plate, search engine, and notes on what in the world this place is, see below.

For CHAOS MANOR REVIEWS click here

For Previous Weeks of the View, SEE VIEW HOME PAGE

read book now

If you intend to send MAIL to me, see the INSTRUCTIONS.

 

 

 read book now

 

This is a Day Book. Pages are in chronological, not blogological order.

line6.gif (917 bytes)

This week:

Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday

read book now

TOP

Monday, March 30, 2009

Government Motors has changed CEO's.

Will we continue to have an automobile industry in the US? Who will be in command of it? Will it make cars people want to buy, or will it make stuff people have to be coerced into buying through regulations and "incentives" (read high taxes on competing products)? It's a new ball game, and I don't think anyone knows where we will be going with this. And you ain't seen nothing yet.

In the past we have used regulations to export jobs and change the character of American industry. As an example, a lot of stuff -- consumer goods -- is made of plastic using injection molding. It is very nearly impossible to operate an injection molding machine in the United States. There are just too many environmental regulations, permits, and pollution abatement costs. As a result we have exported that industry in its entirety, and you won't find much made in the USA with that technology.

What, then, do we make in the US? More to the point, what should we be making? And who should decide this?

There are several possibilities. There's the capitalist system in which the market makes that decision, largely through experiments. We seem to be in the process of abandoning that decision process. It's not clear what we will replace it with.

We note that the auto industry got something under $20 billion in taxpayer money. This is no small sum, but it's pretty small potatoes compared to the TARP funds, and positively tiny compared to what's been shoveled into the financial products industry. Apparently the government intends to keep the financial products industry going in the US at all costs.

================

Earth Hour Report: Apparently Las Vegas turned out a lot of the glitter (although apparently not in the casinos). Reports are that Al Gore turned off some of the spotlights that usually illuminate his mansion, but not the driveway spotlights.

More later. It's time for our walk.

===============

You wrote "As an example, a lot of stuff -- consumer goods -- is made of plastic using injection molding. It is very nearly impossible to operate an injection molding machine in the United States. There are just too many environmental regulations, permits, and pollution abatement costs. As a result we have exported that industry in its entirety, and you won't find much made in the USA with that technology."

Your "glittering generalities" are inflammatory.

Where is your data? And what examples support those causal relationships?

Ask the CEO of Phillips Plastics whether he agrees with you.

I think you are poorly informed on the subject of manufacturing.

This outburst on a subject I know makes me wonder about your veracity when you expound on something I do not know.

I think you are "just too" emotional on this subject.

steven.

-- Steven @ The BAF

I was told that by someone who ought to know, but it could well be wrong. The neat thing about a public log book is that  someone will correct me.

Whether in the specific case of injection molding the regulation are that severe may well be questioned; but the general case isn't unclear. I don't know how many of Phillips Plastics products are made in the USA, but I do know that it's nearly impossible to have a Chinese product free household. For a good part of this Century the US economy was supported in large part by buying consumer products from China, with many of the products paid for by the profits of financial products. This wasn't sustainable, and won't be again. My point was and remains that while there are lots of ways to make money, the route to sustainable wealth is to make things. Selling services, and particularly financial services, can be highly profitable, but at bottom an economy based on selling each other financial products is like an economy based on taking in each others' washing.

My major point remains: we have to figure out what it is we ought to be making in this country. Someone is going to make that decision; the question is who? And once areas are identified, the best thing the government can do is find out how to get out of the way; that may require research into how to make things without harming the environment; and that kind of research may well be a very legitimate activity of government, which was the real point of my musings. The free enterprise system is one of our best engines of wealth creation. Unregulated free enterprise generally has unpleasant consequences. Over regulation leads to low productivity or job export.

And some regulations are explicitly designed to make it very difficult for anyone new to enter the industry.

Apologies if I misled anyone.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For platinum subscription:

Platinum subscribers enable me to work on what I think is important without worrying about economics. My thanks to all of you.

Patron Subscription:

Did you subscribe and never hear from me? Click here!.

 

 

 read book now

 

Monday   TOP   Current Mail

 
This week:

Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday

read book now

TOP

Tuesday, March 31, 2009   

Tomorrow is April 1. Some people are turning off their computers while it's still March, because the Conficker Worm is expecting an update on April 1. Several million machines are estimated to have been infected by Conficker.

There's a lot of panic out there. For more details, see http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29956746/ which has a more calm approach. There is no need to panic.

The important thing is to make sure your Windows system has the latest updates installed; if you have any doubts -- or you have some older machines that you haven't turned on in a while -- this would probably be a good time to be certain. No one knows what instructions Conficker will receive tomorrow, but infected machines will obey them.

 

Security expert Rick Hellewell adds:

I'd advocate a multi-pronged approach; this also applies to Windows running on Macs

1) Ensure that Microsoft/Windows Automatic Updates is enabled. And that you have the latest updates installed. You should have a Microsoft Update on your Start/Programs menu. If all you have is Windows Update, use that and install Microsoft Update. Then do the update.

2) Ensure that your anti-virus program is current. Do the "update now" to make sure. If you have anti-virus installed, you'll usually find an icon for it on the task bar at the lower-right of your screen. A right-click should allow you to find an 'update now' choice. After the update, do a full scan. If you don't have anti-virus program installed (or it is current), then do that now.

3) Consider installing a anti-spyware program. Microsoft's Windows Defender is free and works well.

4) Watch out for cleverly-disguised programs such as "Anti-Malware 2009" that pop up while you are on the Internet. They will claim to have found viruses on your computer, and will offer to 'remove' the malware for a fee. What they really do is install more spyware.

**If you can't get to a site like http://update.microsoft.com/windowsupdate/ ,, then you are probably infected. Go to this site for removal instructions and programs: http://www.dshield.org/conficker . Only use removal programs from these established sources; there are fake ones out there. **

Overall, "Don't Panic". The computing world will not end on April 1. Just follow safe computing practices.

...Rick Hellewell

Note POINT FOUR and what follows it. This is important. Note also that Microsoft will be putting out an "important" update today, and if your automatic update installation schedule is set to update tonight, this will be waiting for installation.

 

==================

 

Julie Woodman sends this reminder:

NASA's early lunar images, in a new light - Los Angeles Times 

http://www.latimes.com/news/
nationworld/nation/la-na-lunar22
-2009mar22,0,1783495,full.story

Those were heady days. See also

http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/imgcat/html/
object_page/lo1_h102_123.html

For the first picture anyone ever saw of the Earth and Moon together.

===================

On plastics and the economy, see mail.

============

Rick Hellewell adds this note:

Note also that the cybercrooks are 'poisoning' search results for Conficker and "DownAD" to point to malware (bad) sites. Your readers should only go to valid sites as previously described. 

...Rick....

===================

Bob in New Zealand:

Actually, here in New Zealand it is already tomorrow. We're some 19 hours ahead of the US (depending how far behind UTC you are, we are 13 hours ahaead of UTC here).

We're just starting work here, it's exactly 0900 on 01/04/09. So far I haven't heard anything about any issues.

bob

=======================

  People whose mail bounced (very partial list)

Robert Whitaker formerly of AOL

Neal Pritchett formerly of Earthlink

Kirk Patchett

Matthew Farr

Cynthia Allingham

Peter Cohen

====================

NIVEN AND I will be at the SPACE ACCESS CONFERENCE in Phoenix, Arizona this weekend; we will be there Thursday and Friday only.

SA'09 takes place at the Best Western Grace Inn at 10831 South 51st St, a comfortable resort-style hotel in Phoenix Arizona, ten miles east on I-10 from the Phoenix Airport via free hotel shuttle, if you're driving go one block west from I-10 off the Elliot Rd exit then take your first left onto 51st and you're there, in a pleasant suburban neighborhood with shopping and dining a short walk away, with free parking. Call the hotel at 480 893-3000 if you have questions.

=================

For details on SAS Conference http://www.space-access.org/

============

Is sea level rising? By how much? And how do we know?

 

 

 

 

 read book now

 

Tuesday   TOP  Current Mail

 
 

This week:

Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday

read book now

TOP

Wednesday,  April 1, 2009

I do not do April Fool jokes.

I got a late start and I have a medical appointment. Tomorrow morning I am going to Phoenix for the Space Access conference, which means doing preparations. I have to get the column done. I have to keep this place going so you'll continue to subscribe and renew.

For the moment there's some discussion of sea level in mail. More later.

 

 

 

 

 read book now

 

Wednesday  TOP  Current Mail

 

 
 

This week:

Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday

read book now

TOP

Thursday,  April 2, 2009

It turns out that there wasn't room in the small private jet going to Phoenix. Either Niven or I had to be left behind, an I'm so far behind that I urged Niven to go and leave me. My tax preparations are upon me, bills have to be paid, Rick Galloway has to fight a naval battle, the column has to be written. I'll try not to waste the time.

The LA Times Business section had a column on the ratings firms today. It says what I have been saying for some time now. Note that by law money a number of financial institutions cannot invest in products below a certain rating -- and the ratings can only be given by about four firms. Thus there's no way to bring in a new rating system, the incomes of the ratings firms that rated real estate bubble inflated junk as AAA and thus allowed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and other lending institutions to count their mortgage backed derivatives as high quality capital the same as US Treasure bonds, and thus allowed them to inject more money into the real estate market thus keeping the bubble expanding and thus leading to the crash ---  a long sentence but it's a long chain of consequences. And the point is that this rating system is unchanged and unlikely to change. It's built into the law. See http://www.latimes.com/
business/la-fi-hiltzik2-2009
apr02,0,6715662.column

Until we find some alternative to the present rating system -- which at the moment is solidified in granite by law -- we're going to have the potential for bad ratings inspiring bubbles. The system has bond funds paying the ratings agencies for ratings. "Here, I'll give you money. You give me an impartial rating. Of course if you give me a lower rating there are other agencies I can pay who I am sure could use my money..." This does not seem to me a way to guarantee impartial ratings...

The ratings companies say they have to charge for ratings or otherwise they could not afford to make the ratings public. They have to be paid by someone. I would think the obvious people to be paying would be those who are going to buy the products rated -- that indeed the notion of taking payments from those who benefit from higher ratings would be called kickbacks in other industries such as construction -- but I freely admit I haven't thought this all the way through. But surely there's a better system for determining which investments are safe for retirement funds and other "secure" and "conservative" investments than the one that is at present written into law.

==========

Meanwhile, ugly truths emerge from the Stevens trial. The Attorney General's office is about to drop all the charges -- including the original charges that got a conviction -- of former Senator Stevens of Alaska; this on the grounds of prosecutorial misconduct including quite possibly fabricated evidence and almost certainly withholding evidence. And apparently the judge who presided over the trial saw much of this coming but for reasons not yet explained didn't stop the mess before a jury convicted the Senator.

Now I am not big fan of Senator Stevens. I'm not an enemy either. I really know little about him. I do know that the balance of power in the Senate was upset by his conviction just before the election; the conviction caused him to lose. He was convicted of lying -- I don't know if under oath or in signed statements.

From the NPR report: http://www.npr.org/templates/
story/story.php?storyId=102589818

The [Senator Stevens'] lawyers, Brendan Sullivan and Robert Cary, called the case "a sad story and a warning to everyone. Any citizen can be convicted if prosecutors are hell-bent on ignoring the Constitution and willing to present false evidence."

I'm not at all sure what to make of this. I don't know why someone in the Justice Department had it in for Stevens, or whether they were directed to be so by the Bush Administration (or why), or by whom those who acted improperly were appointed. There's a lot I don't know. But this case scares the hell out of me. The lesson was that if they -- whoever 'they' are -- are out to get you, you're going to be got. Ask Martha Stewart. Or the former senior Senator.

We have not heard the last of this story.

=================

I just heard Rush Limbaugh tell the story of Queen Victoria and the finger bowl as if it happened to Queen Elizabeth II. I expect this will dominate the news for the next day or so. Sigh.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 read book now

 

Thursday   TOP  Current Mail

 

 
 

This week:

Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday

read book now

TOP

Friday,  April 3, 2009

I am getting the column out and doing other stuff. Still trying to catch up.

The G20 conference was pretty well cut and dried to begin with so no surprises there. And the column is due...

If you need something interesting to do for about 20 minutes:

Dancing in the flames 

Dr Pournelle

I found this quite interesting. Perhaps you will, too. (Running time: 18m 50s) http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/juan_enriquez_shares_mindboggling_new_science.html 

Live long and prosper
h lynn keith

 

========

 

 

 

 

 

 read book now

Friday   TOP  Current Mail

 

 
This week:

Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday

read book now

TOP

Saturday,  April 4, 2009

Working today. Here's an interesting item:

Heinlein's Colorado Springs Home for Sale

Heinlein's house can be had for only $650K. The pictures show a nice spiral staircase.

http://tinyurl.com/clle3a 

Tim Boettcher

There are remnants of the old 1776 Mesa house in those photos, but not much. Everything seems to have been rebuilt, and Heinlein's bedroom/office/bathroom suite seems to have been torn out and rebuilt. There was no dining room in the old house, and there was no second floor or spiral staircase. That's all new. The view is still there, of course.

I have no idea of property values in Colorado Springs, but there's not much of Robert Heinlein left in that house other than the location.

 (And see mail)

=====================

 

 

 

 

 

 

Saturday   TOP  Current Mail

 
This week:

Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday

read book now

TOP

Sunday,  April 5, 2009

I'll be late today. Readers will find this interesting as an insight into just who is running the country. I'll have more to say about this one on Monday.

http://www.salon.com/
opinion/greenwald/2009/
04/04/summers/index.html

If that's not enough, try this. Moyers isn't one of my favorite people, but the interview is interesting:

http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/
04032009/watch.html

==========================

We're driving up to the high desert for our granddaughter's first birthday. Be back Monday afternoon.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 read book now

 Sunday   TOP        Current View  

 Current Mail

This is a day book. It's not all that well edited. I try to keep this up daily, but sometimes I can't. I'll keep trying. See also the weekly COMPUTING AT CHAOS MANOR column, 8,000 - 12,000 words, depending.  (Older columns here.) For more on what this page is about, please go to the VIEW PAGE. If you have never read the explanatory material on that page, please do so. If  you got here through a link that didn't take you to the front page of this site, click here for a better explanation of what we're trying to do here. This site is run on the "public radio" model; see below.

If you have no idea what you are doing here, see  the What is this place?, which tries to make order of chaos. 

Boiler Plate:

If you want to PAY FOR THIS, the site is run like public radio: you don't have to pay, but if no one does, it will go away. On how to pay, I keep the latest HERE.  MY THANKS to all of you who have sent money.  Some of you went to a lot of trouble to send money from overseas. Thank you! There are also some new payment methods.

If you subscribed:

atom.gif (1053 bytes) CLICK HERE for a Special Request.

If you didn't and haven't, why not?

If this seems a lot about paying think of it as the Subscription Drive Nag. You'll see more.

If you are not paying for this place, click here...

 

For information on COURSE materials, click here

===========

 

===========

Strategy of Technology in pdf format:

For platinum subscription:

For a PDF copy of A Step Farther Out:

 

For the BYTE story, click here.

 

Search: type in string and press return.

For Current Mail click here.

 The freefind search remains:

 

   Search this site or the web        powered by FreeFind
 
  Site search Web search

Here is where to order the nose pump I recommend:

 

 

Entire Site Copyright 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 by Jerry E. Pournelle. All rights reserved.

 

birdline.gif (1428 bytes)