Michael in Pennsylvania shared this article he originally wrote for Medium:

 

16 things we should learn from this COVID-19 pandemic

First, let me make clear that I am not belittling this pandemic or the destruction of individual lives and families that have resulted. I am not even critiquing the governmental responses to date; hindsight is too easy to use to denigrate others. However, we do need to begin to consider what happened and what we can learn from our responses.

1. Regardless of how this COVID 19 pandemic turns out we need to learn some key lessons prior to the next one (and there will be a next one whether mild, moderate or horrendous). We especially need to learn to prepare for horrendous; think the first SARS that had a 10% infection death rate and combine that with COVID-19s infectiousness.
2. Beware of too blasé a response to the next one. Just because this one and previous ones were relatively benign (compared to the Black Plague, 1918 or epidemics in third world countries) doesn’t mean we won’t run into something nasty in the future.
3. Yet, don’t listen too much to tales of the 1918 Spanish Flu. Among other things hospitals in 1918 were little more than rooms with cots and medicine was markedly primitive (plus there was a WOrld War going on).
4. Be careful of trusting information or lack of information from governments and government organizations that have incentives to spin, modify and/or suppress it.
5. Be careful of both soothing and dire predictions early in the process; the people (experts) making them may not (most likely don’t) have the information they would need to make those predictions.
6. Remember which sources of information were responsible, informative, timely and helpful (and which weren’t). Fear is easy to spread but seldom productive (certainly not as helpful as concise, accurate, actionable information).
7. Take the time to learn the lingo of epidemiology (e.g., case fatality vs infection fatality rates: CFR is the ratio of the number of deaths divided by the number of confirmed cases of disease. IFR is the ratio of deaths divided by the number of actual infections) and what steps have been recommended in the past to deal with pandemics (both the US government and the WHO have, in the past , produced detailed reports (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/pdf/pandemic-influenza-implementation.pdf; https://http://www.who.int/influenza/preparedness/pandemic/en/) on what should be done. Learn what information is valid and what may be speculative so you can better evaluate what you are being told.
8. Don’t expect big government or centralized government to have the necessary preparations or answers in a timely fashion. Many governments have plans but plans need to be enacted and large centralized government organizations can be clumsy and slow. There are several US government plans developed by several agencies but they apparently weren’t efficiently put into practice, at least at first.
9. Work to make sure your local and state authorities are prepared and stay prepared. Prepared, responsive local authorities are more likely to help you with your specific issues during an epidemic. This was the basis of our Civil Defense organizations long before FEMA.
10. As far as possible make sure your financial situation is prepared for at least a short term emergency.
11. As far as possible have a reasonable stock of key items available for a short term emergency; but don’t turn into a hoarder during the initial stages of the situation.
12. As far as possible establish a good communications relationship with your healthcare professional; especially one with a telemedicine aspect to their practice.
13. The next epidemic will most likely also be spread through touch and possibly be contagious through the air. Polio was a gastrointestinal virus spread through oral-fecal contact, cholera and similar diseases are spread through contaminated water and some others are spread by mosquitoes but most recent epidemics, especially in developed nations (bird flu, swine flu, etc.) have been respiratory in nature and spread through aerosols or contact.
14. Having N-95 or N-99 fitted masks available in your home is a simple precaution. In addition, continuing basic hand washing and avoiding touching your mouth, nose and eyes between hand washings. Also wiping down surfaces with disinfectant solutions. These will all reduce other communicable diseases like influenza and even the common cold.
15. Take as many steps as you can to stay healthy: reduce weight and control any co-morbidities you may have; take all recommended prophylactic precautions (flu shots, pneumonia shots, etc.).
16. Press upon your responsible officials that early testing (if available) and contact tracing and tracking and appropriate quarantine measures should be instituted targeted at likely infected people and vulnerable populations rather than widespread lockdowns. A widespread lockdown may be necessary if an unknown disease hits which is extremely deadly and contagious, at least until more is known about it; but a shut down economy is a hinderance to responses rather than a help. So any broad lockdowns should be short in order to gather data and formulate an appropriate response, if needed at all.

We’ll get through this and we will get through the next one too; personal preparedness will keep more of us safe now and in the future.

We are truly living through something unprecedented. A lot of things don’t make sense. We’re hungry for anthing that can make these moments in in our lives feel a little bit less weird.  But the utter weirdness of the first quarter for the COVID-19 story-line is in its own distinct  kind of crazy, where the road map has run out and the next page of the story is blank.

All of our end-of-the-world scenarios about huge cataclysms that challenge humanity don’t tell you about this part.  It’s boring waiting and watching for the other shoe to drop.

Usually stories like LUCIFERS HAMMER chronicle the the arrival of the threat and the things it does. the destruction it causes and we learn what smart people did to prepare. And sometimes stories like this end on the parts about humanity rebuilding itself.  Typically, these kinds of stories don’t linger on the part of the events, when things might look normal, but aren’t yet.

In the real world as we start to peek outside our houses and wonder if anybody does know how the story continues, we wonder what to say.  Now that rational Americans, confronted with untenable circumstances will begin to question much of what is in front of them.  We now have opportunity to contemplate our lots, and ponder, and wonder and game this out, just as those who lived in Italy and Korea and Japan have already done.

It’s time get to a normal life. History has started beating again. Undo the layers of confusion. Plan. Restart. Dream.

It’s why we went thru this…to overcome.

See for yourself.  There’s a new ending to LUCIFERS HAMMER available here.

CHAOS MANOR

Readers of Science Fiction and ChaosManor are generally the smartest people in the room. Trying to predict how corona virus will disrupt your family life is akin to bagging up the wind.  Even if you’re right, be smart. All good Preppers are quiet about their preparedness.

Here’s an excellent review of the medical situation on ending pandemics:

Let’s walk through some math to make you feel better:

Ways to Look at Probabilities:

Jerry Pournelle’s “R-NAUGHT” Formula for COVID-19

Ok, not really his formula, but non-physician Doctor Pournelle used R-Naught to explain the mathematical risk of both SARS and EBOLA reproduction.

Some governors and mayors think of Corona Virus as having the propensity to reproduce like a drunk MOTIE on Prom Night.  What are the statistical chances of you scoring Corona Virus?

 

6 EASY STEPS TO SURVIVE IN STYLE:

 

1. Lay in a week’s worth of rice, tuna, pet food, medication and canned veggies.  Grab some lemons and oranges to avoid scurvy.  Get $200 in cash and then literally wash the bills.  Jerry would recommend a 5lb box of chocolate flavored Malto Meal…nobody likes it and nobody hoards it. Give your neighbor your cell phone number.  Your best defense is good neighbors.
2. Order a 30 day supply of aspirin, acetaminophen, batteries and decongestants online.  Gas up the car.  Get 5 gallons of water.
3. Don’t worry about TP.  That’s not essential. That’s why you’ve kept that Sears Catalog and the Yellowpages next to your house phone.
4. Older or Compromised?  If you smoke, stop.  Avoid contact with any public surface.   Wash your hands for 20 seconds in hot water. Don’t touch your face.  Don’t drink too much.
5. The libraries will be closed. Lay in a copy of How Things Work but read Lucifer’s Hammer  one more time. Break out Footfall  if you get bored or actually read Larry’s RINGWORLD series.  It’s been awhile since you’ve read The Mote in God’s Eye and The Gripping Hand.
6. Subscribe to ChaosManor.  We’ll be giving away free books later this week.

Now we need your learned opinion…

____________________________

HERE’S WHAT WE’RE SEEING:

• The thing to watch we’re told is the ER wait times.
• Starbucks won’t refill your coffee from the same container.
• 6 counties in California are on lock down
• Chipotle Restaurant is seeing a 22% decline in receipts.
• Russians are running full tilt on their oil rigs.
• Italy and China are closing off their borders.
• The older, silent generation is being disproportionally affected.

THE QUESTION TO YOU:
Is recession on its way?
Is there a pandemic rising–or is this a panic-driven phenomenon?
Should we stock up on essentials? What kind?
How do we realign our retirement?
What will the timetable look like?
What are the early warning signs to which we should pay attention?

With the rapid drop in the stock market today along with the decline in air travel, oil prices and avoidance of community gathering we are activating the ChaosManor Expert Community.
This might get serious and we should prepare.

On occasion Jerry had called upon you to contribute your knowledge.
Now is the time to help each other prepare for the economic, health and global effects.

We are asking for you to place comment and contribute rational thought in the comments below.
We will Survive with Style. Help us prepare, won’t you?

We need real data. In your comments, please first note your credentials or area of expertise.
We will edit comments of hysteria and any unsupported claims, but we want and need your opinion.

If you have video or images, feel free to write doctorjerrypournelle@gmail.com

CHAOSMANOR