| Thursday,
March 10, 2011
Ex-Goldman Sachs Analyst: “Major War” Coming End Of 2012
Jerry,
He's not telling me anything new. I've analyzed the
data, and I see the same thing. However, here is one more credible voice
that we probably should listen to. Also, I would not be surprised if this
war starts with nukes on U.S. soil.
http://www.prisonplanet.com/
ex-goldman-sachs-analyst-major-
war-coming-end-of-2012.html
---
J
I would not give either the economic or war
warning hypotheses a high probability, but alas, it is not zero either.
Each time we become more involved in Near Eastern affairs we create new
enemies and thus build new requirements for the US military and security
apparatus. And see below
==========
Driver licence renewals
Dr. Pournelle,
Petronius is mistaken, at least as
far as the UK is concerned: the five-yearly renewal of driving licences
currently required does not involve any re-testing whether medical or of
competence; it is entirely and completely a bureaucratic exercise, therefore
of no value except to those who are thereby kept in jobs (and pensions).
After the age of 70 (I think) you are required, as
part of the renewal, to self-certify that you have no medical problems which
might prevent you driving safely; but nobody checks this.
Of course, New Zealand pre-reform may have been
different.
Andrew Duffin
Thank you.
===========
Good Music?
Jerry,
I just jumped on the Billboard Top 100 and listened to
the music. To put it in the vernacular, it all sucks. http://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100#/charts/hot-100?begin=1&order=position
What happened to good music? Most of these songs are about making people
feel good about themselves. There are no philosophical themes, no burning
questions, no discussions of overcoming bad experiences, etc. I had good
music growing up.
It just hit me that my generation is making the music
now. This is most discouraging, Jerry. Music used to be cool. It used to
excite you. It used to stimulate your mind. It would get inside your body
and make you feel things. Now, it all sounds like a ringtone from a
telephone. It sounds flat. It rattles like a skeleton; it says "I know the
words, but not the music". It has become a left brain industry rather than a
right brain activity. Do you have any thoughts on my observation & rant
combo?
--------
Most Respectfully,
Joshua Jordan, KSC Percussa Resurgo
I listen to talk shows mostly but when I want
music I listen to KUSC which is a classical music station. Given my
hearning I don't get the fine points of modern music to begin with, but I
heard most of the classics when my hearing was better, so I tend to hear
them as much in memory as in reality.
============
Temperature
Jerry,
Regarding global temperature:
1, Temperature is properly described as a continuous
field variable in position and time.(with potential short-term
discontinuities at interfaces between the atmosphere and the
hydrosphere/lithosphere due to differences in heat transfer rates).
2. Thus, temperature at any point is properly
described as a function of position (say latitude, longitude, and height
above / distance below ground surface) and time.
3. Temperature changes due to the presence and effects
of: heat sources (sunlight -- actual total extraterrestrial radiative energy
input including effects of ionizing radiation on upper atmosphere chemistry
and aerosol formation), upwelling heat from the earth's interior, and human
/ biological / biochemical activity); heat sinks (thermal mass of the
earth's solid and liquid surface, which can change locally due to human
activity such as construction); atmospheric and oceanic convention;
atmospheric, oceanic, and lithospheric conduction; and radiative effects,
which are modified (in atmosphere) by the collective emissivity of gaseous
components and reflectivity (in all bands) to atmospheric aerosols, both of
which (in principle) are perturbed by human/biological activity, but also by
nature occurrences (e.g. volcanic ash). A fully detailed analysis should
also take in point perturbations ("Hammer weather").
4. The exact global average temperature, given
knowledge of the point temperature function, is the integral of that
function over the entire earth's surface, over an altitude range of
interest, and over a time frame of interest (e.g. one solar day), divided by
the volume and time frame of integration.
5. This may in principle be approximated by averaging
of point measurements of temperature over the entire earth's surface,
However, the error is this average is not subject to conventional statistics
which assumes such measurements are independent, because they aren't; they
are samples from a field of correlated values based on the continuity of the
point temperature function. Statistically, the error in such an average may
be no better than the average of the errors of individual measurements. This
also assumes there are no systematic errors which bias the results, in
particular due to differential or unrepresentative density of measurement
points. This can be compensated by some knowledge of the form of the
temperature function, but imprecise estimates of the temperature function
can also introduce systematic bias.
6. All of that said, I don't know that anyone has
actually attempted to work out a formal statistical basis for estimating the
average temperature from the available data. Dr. Spencer at NASA MSFC /
University of Alabama Huntsville may be closest with his averaged satellite
data.
As a sidebar, it is worth noting that there appears to
be a very minimal difference in estimated average temperature over the
course of the year, despite the almost 7% change in sunlight over the course
of the year due to the eccentricity of the earth's orbit. I'm not sure how
that is modeled, but I currently suspect that it is due to a combination of
the higher reflectivity of the southern hemisphere (due to higher ocean
surface) and the moderating effects of geothermal upwelling, at least as
much as to the overall thermal inertia of the system.
Jim Woosley
I would be pleased to see a discussion at this
level from those who take AGW seriously.
=============
Some more idle musings.
Change happens. Witness, the climate, energy crisis,
health care spiral, economy woes, unemployment, not to mention the perpetual
Middle East palpitations.
Over in the Mac world (I am a long time Mac user) many
are unhappy with the new version of OS X Lion still under development, is
supposedly dropping Rosetta, support for Power PC (PPC) code while running
an Intel based Mac.
A Luddite would of coarse bemoan any change and stick
doggedly to the past. The opposite would be to embrace change, dump the old
with alacrity "gotta have the latest, greatest===next big thing!"
The Mac websites & blogs posts show I am not the only
existing Mac user with legacy Macs who is uncertain about the future of
Apple plotted course, be it good or bad. The main discussion is about Lion
will abandon Rosetta which allows PPC code to run on Intel Macs. My Eudora
is among the victims. I have old G4 Macs too.
Obviously it touched a nerve in some folks.
Buried in this collection of posts is a user that
talks of the capacitor failures. MAYBE that was planned obsolescence. ALL
electronics designed to fail? And must regularly replaced with new? Who
knows. That last was "tongue in cheek" comment.
In the real world of incredibly fast evolving /
changing high tech, there is a practical limit to holding onto older stuff.
One might call it Point of Diminishing Returns. Different folks just draw
the line in the sand at different spots.
For some of us, budgets and money/costs are a major
determining factor. Not all can afford to buy new electronic "toys" ,
hardware & software on 1-2 years cycle. Sigh.
I guess I will just snuggle down in my Wickiup. Now
where are my abacus, flints, oil lamps and candles?
Mike J -- Michael L Johnson
Change happens. Energy efficiency leads to more
energy use, something known since the 19th Century. Technology races ahead
at its own pace. See Jevons, The Theory of Political Economy among other
works. Incidentally, Jevons is long in the public domain and I would
presume there is a decent free eBook copy somewhere; I'd appreciate a
pointer since my paper copy is disintegrating.
Thanks to all those who wrote to tell me of this.
Jevons is available in a very good free download at
the Library of Economics and Liberty--www.econlib.org.
Bob Roberts
==
Jerry -
Google Books has Jevons' The Theory of Political
Economy (1871) in .pdf and .epub formats at the following hideous URL:
http://books.google.com/books?
id=Sw8ZAAAAYAAJ&dq=intitle%3A
The%20intitle%3ATheory%20intitle%3
Aof%20intitle%3APolitical%20intitle%3
AEconomy&pg=PP1#v=onepage&q&f=false
David Smith
==
Jevons, "The Theory of Political Economy"
http://www.efm.bris.ac.uk/het/jevons/TheoryPoliticalEconomy.pdf
(You prefer "Toyota!"? (a former co-worker's frequent
expression, meaning "You asked for it, you got it!"))
I also found it on Gutenberg.
<http://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/33219>
Now that I have a copy in downloads on my
Windows machine (it is readable with the Kindle App and I presume with
others) I am trying to get it on my iPad Kindle app; I have emailed it to
my Kindle, but so far nothing seems to be happening. I wonder what I did
wrong this time.
==============
It wasn't TSA!
Dr. Pournelle,
In re: the woman arrested for
taking pictures of a helicopter
The lady was arrested by the local cops after the feds
had decided she wasn't a threat and then left her in the hands of the local
cop. Sure, the hounded her for hours first, but they eventually let her go.
Do note, too, the links at the bottom. The city didn't
show up, so she got a default judgement. OOPS!
http://www.longislandlawyerblog.com
/nancy-genovese-lawsuit-updates-town-of-
southampton-in-default
BEST regards, Robin Juhl
============
An amusing take on the Taming of the Brits -
Hello Dr. Pournelle,
Your Norman ancestors would probably fully agree with
this article: Considering their genetic make-up, how could Brits have become
so tame?
http://revoltingregulations.blogspot.com/
2011/03/pussification-of-brits.html
An entertaining read, yet sadly accurate!
Fade, Brittania! Harold fought for his kingdom,
and defeated Noroway before William got him.
============
Libya and logistics
Jerry,
Agreed, any war over Libya is indeed going to be one
of logistics; the geography of widely separated cities dotted across a
thousand miles of open country ensures that.
For the moment I take no position on whether
intervention is advisable, but I differ with your correspondent Brad as to
whether the window for (relatively) easy intervention has passed.
The last serious war over that terrain was, in my
view, eventually won largely due to Allied airpower and intelligence
allowing them to interdict Axis logistics, both seaborne coming into the
theatre and roadborne within the theatre. We have the same advantages
available to us now, at far lower relative cost - the RAF never had anything
like the qualitative edge over the Luftwaffe that we would have over
Ghadaffi's ill-maintained and marginally trained air force, and my
impression is that Ghadaffi's navy is even less a factor.
All this talk of a Libyan "no-fly zone" misses the
point - even now, we could if we wanted use airpower to reduce Libyan air
defenses then shut down the majority of Ghadaffi's overland logistics and
destroy any heavy weapons he tries to deploy, putting his forces on an equal
footing with the rebels. At that point we'd have reduced the problem to the
rough equivalent of Afghanistan in 2001; a similar commitment of supplies,
special forces, and air support should then produce a similar regime-change
result, at which point I would hope we'd get out.
As I've said, I take no position on whether we should
pay the price to do this. Using purely conventional airpower, I'd
guesstimate the forces needed as two to three carrier battle groups plus
some tanker support, transports, and long-range interdiction out of Malta.
(I note that one of the costs involved would be the effect of pulling those
carriers away from other places they're needed; it's not as if we have a lot
of carriers to spare these days.)
The wild card though is, how much could we do with
armed long-endurance drones to patrol Libya's roads and degrade Ghadaffi's
current mobility? My suspicion is drones would have a considerable
multiplier effect, destroying small convoys outright and pinpointing larger
ones for conventional air attack. We might then get by with one carrier plus
land-based out of Malta and Sicily. (On the other hand, those armed drones
are also a limited resource we'd have to pull away from elsewhere. On the
gripping hand, it could be a very instructive thing to try...)
Henry
Oh we can still take the place: one armored
division would do the job, and given the isolations we could operate the
oil fields. We don't have to be popular. If conquest is the object we can
do it, and the Italians have already shown how you can pacify the place.
But if you are trying to win friends, it might be best to intervene before
all your friends are dead. We didn't think that way after we encouraged
the South Iraqis to rise up in rebellion. Once they were dead and their
marshes drained it was a bit late to impose a no-fly condition.
I am not eager for another US commitment. I do
think that if it were done, 'twere best done quickly.
==
Disregard previous - answer in haste, repent at
leisure... I managed to largely miss your and Brad's point about "the
golden hour" when intervention *might* have been extremely cheap, a
handful of carefully targeted missiles. Whether we had the information to
so target is a question, but a moot one at this point - that initial hour
clearly has passed. The larger question I missed was one of available
resources - I'll get back to that.
We clearly have an interest in stability in oil
producing nations. (Lost opportunities to invest in energy independence are
also alas moot, at least in the context of what do we do this month.) Libya
is clearly the oil-producing nation currently most in need of restored
stability. Libya may also I think allow of doing so at an affordable price.
If so, an intervention "pour encourager les autres" could be quite
cost-effective - thirty bucks a barrel off the price of oil is roughly a
hundred billion a year off US import costs alone; add the economic effects
worldwide (not to mention specific European import costs) and there begins
to be a case for a net gain. IF, that is, we can do it right and do it
cheap. Success at huge cost would be pyrrhic, while being seen to try and
fail would bear even huger costs all too soon.
So, resources. We don't have enough carriers - we have
ten total, plus an eleventh building. Five currently deployed and needed
where they are, a sixth ready to deploy, seven eight and nine in six-month
refits, and the tenth in a four-year refueling refit. We could put one
carrier there from the Red Sea in a few days (if we could spare it from
there, and IF we wanted to risk it through Suez so soon after two Iranian
ships have transited the canal) plus a second from the US in 10 days or so.
We probably do have enough land-based air assets -
strike and interdiction certainly; US and european conventional air forces
are considerably underemployed right now. Tanker and transport assets are
another matter; my impression is that both are stretched already by current
operations elsewhere. Long-range UAV recon and strike assets could be a
high-leverage wildcard, but again what we've got is stretched already
elsewhere.
Bases for those assets are another matter. Malta is
once again associated with NATO via "Partnership for Peace", but presumably
they'd want a stiff price for intervening against a close neighbor, not to
mention tying up their international airport (no other big runways there
visible on a quick look at sat images) and disrupting their tourist trade. I
would expect those discussions are ongoing... Southern Italy and Sicily are
the next basing options; there are three NATO AWACS flying out of Italy
currently keeping an eye on Libyan air ops - but basing strike and
interdiction there adds hundreds of miles more to the round trip - see
previous remark about scarce tankers.
So, we don't have enough carriers to do it on our own.
Given the need for NATO and associate basing, we can't do it till we've
talked it over with the euros for some substantial period. (Such talks seem
to be ongoing.) Many of the various resources needed will also require a
week or two (or more) to redeploy to those bases. What the West is visibly
doing now (some special forces on the ground doing initial liaison and
assessment, initial aerial surveillance, and a lot of discussion with the
euros) is probably about all we can do for the moment.
I would assume we are already intervening, directly or
via proxies, to help the rebels with supplies, logistics, and training. That
will take a while to bear fruit. If and when we overtly intervene, I expect
it will be significantly similar to our initial overthrow of the Taliban
government in Afghanistan - limited special forces on the ground, backed by
an air operation that will quickly seize air superiority, then interdict
Ghadaffi's logistics and destroy his heavy weapons while providing close air
support to rebel attacks on his positions.
I suspect that one difference from 2001 Afghanistan is
that UAVs will allow doing this with relatively smaller conventional
aircraft commitments. And I sincerely hope that one difference from 2001
Afghanistan would be that we'll tell the rebels we're leaving as soon as
it's over, and they may then govern the country as they wish as long as they
keep the oil flowing and don't harbor our enemies.
I think our choices will boil down to, covertly
supporting a protracted and messy civil war, or overtly intervening in the
next few weeks to bring it to a swift end. Bottom line, I think we can do
it, well enough and cheaply enough, to make it worthwhile. (My biggest doubt
in that department is competence at the top - Jimmy Carter micromanaging the
hostage rescue writ large...)
Henry
We don't have any good alternatives. All have
downsides, and I don't have enough information to evaluate. Even quick
action has a downside: perhaps wait until the rebels beg for help?
===========
RE: North Korea far poorer than reported
Jerry:
I learned a few years ago (some radio show I believe)
that NK has some 10’s of thousands of artillery tubes in the hills north of
the DMZ, most of them pointed at downtown Seoul. In the first few minutes of
a conflict, they could level Seoul with hundreds of thousands of artillery
rounds. Who needs nukes?
Best regards,
Doug Ely
That was one of the factors I was
considering. Of course the guns have to work and their crews have to fire.
One remedy to that is neutron weapons, but that is unlikely and has an
enormous downside.
==========
Genetic Errors Nixed Penis Spines, Enlarged Our
Brains,
Jerry
Apparently, they no longer call it junk DNA:
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/
2011/03/deletion-human-evolution/
“Only 2 percent of the DNA in our genome forms
protein-coding genes. The rest, once called “junk DNA,” helps control and
coordinate gene activity. Out of this regulatory coordination, physiological
complexity emerges.”
There’s more. Apparently we differ most from chimps in
our in the protein-coding DNA in deletions. Deletions are the fastest way to
evolve.
Interesting piece. I wish I was taking evolutionary
genetics now and not in 1971. What we didn’t know!
Ed
Agreed that it is now a much more exciting
science...
========
tax rates and teachers' pay
Dear Jerry,
Not sure what your point is about the top California
state income bracket starting at $44,000. Are teachers paid from state
income tax revenues in California? I always thought teachers were paid from
property taxes. At any rate, that's supposed to be the reason why my
property taxes are so high here in NJ.
Gordon Sollars
The Supreme Court of the United States ruled that
funding public schools from local school taxes is Unconstitutional and
always has been for all the time of our existence; states have to do most
of the local school funding. In California it's about half the state
budget, which has been in deficit for a decade. I expect it is not much
different in New Jersey.
===============
Predictions and Reality
Dear Jerry,
So Alex Jones, Aluminum Foil Cap Nutter of the First
Water, now touts the prediction by a "Goldman, Sachs
analyst" of a Big war for 2012, based on-
"Nenner, a former technical analyst for Goldman Sachs,
is head of the Charles Nanner Research Center <http://charlesnenner.com/>,
which purports to be able to predict market trends with a computer program
based around pattern forecasting and securities analysis. Nenner predicted
the stock market and housing collapse over two years before the fall of
Lehman Brothers.}"
<http://www.prisonplanet.com/
ex-goldman-sachs-analyst-major-
war-coming-end-of-2012.html>
A tongue-in-cheek "semantic analysis" of the above
reveals-
Nanner claims he can predict what the market will do,
by use of proprietary trend predicting computer programs.
Nanner's proprietary trend predicting computer
programs did not predict the largest downturn in the past seventy years, the
2008 Meltdown.
Nanner now claims his proprietary trend predicting
computer programs predict an even larger than 2008 financial meltdown coming
soon, and that his proprietary trend predicting computer programs can mow
also accurately predict the cause of the looming alleged financial meltdown
to, that it will be caused by a Big War.
This is called, in poker terms, "Going On Tilt", as in
"I just bet half my stack on a pair of Jacks, and got clobbered by a full
house on the River, so now I am so off my game from that gouge in the eye
that I am gonna get even by betting the rest of my stack on this pair of
deuces!"
In other words, this is Coast To Coast AM, Art
Bell/George Noory material. Good for late night insomniacs, inveterate
nutters and those who like a good laugh.
I suspect most of us here are in the last bag.
Even George Noory will admit that this sort of thing
is mostly aired for entertainment. He's a Good Guy. Unfortunately, some
people cannot take a joke, and think there is a Hidden Reality in such
ravings.
Petronius
PS Of course, what with Kaddafi melting down, Dear
Leader still Alive and Dying, Pakistan lurching toward Failed State status
with fifty nuke tipped missiles, and Iran seduced by dreams of Aryan
superiority and Persian Restoration, who knows? Nanner might pull a third
deuce out on the River.
Such a cheering thought...
Now now...
================
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