| Sunday, October
3, 2010
: Heinlein comments from the grave
Dr. Pournelle:
RAH's prescience is amazing in light of Steven
Colbert's "testimony" before Congress:
In To Sail Beyond the Sunset, Chapter 24, "Decline and
Fall," copyright 1987, Heinlein writes
But there seems to have been an actual decline in
rational thinking. The United States had become a place where entertainers
and professional athletes were mistaken for people of importance. They were
idolized and treated as leaders; their opinions were sought on everything
and they took themselves just as seriously -- after all if an athlete is
paid a million or more per year, he knows he is important . . . so his
opinions of foreign affairs and domestic policies must be important, too,
even though he proves himself to be both ignorant and subliterate every time
he opens his mouth. (Most of his fans were just as ignorant and unlettered;
the disease was spreading.)
Heinlein wrote that 23 years ago and things have not
improves since.
--
"Newspapers are unable, seemingly, to discriminate
between a bicycle accident and the collapse of civilization." - George
Bernard Shaw
Pete Nofel Pete@CNCReport.com
==========
: Madam Sebelius, the grand inquisitor
Saw
the same article you
did. The second paragraph shows she has absolutely no idea of what she
is talking about:
" In the mid-1960s, for example, some claimed Medicare
would put our country on the path to socialism. "
When congress decided they knew how to price medical
treatment, the system started to go off the rails and got us where we are
today. Who in their right mind, thinks congress has clue what an xray should
cost?
Phil
===========
Navy Connects Buoy to Power Grid at Hawaii Marine
Corps Base -
Jerry,
http://www.navy.mil/search/display.asp?story_id=56229
Navy Connects Buoy to Power Grid at Hawaii Marine
Corps Base
This sounds like one of your books. Hopefully this is
another little step in the right direction.
R, Rose
I preen.
============
hyperthermia in babies
Jerry,
A friend is a neo-natial doc at the level 4 trauma center in silicon
valley. They routinely cool down newborns to allow their systems to fight
off birth problems. Apparently, the low temperature slows down the chemical
reactions and allows the baby time to fight invaders etc.
Phil
I think you mean hypothermia, but that's very
interesting.
============
'Then it dawned on me. My iPad had just flown off the
back of my car at 70 MPH and crash-landed on the Interstate.'
<http://comicsansrelief.com/2010/09/the-flying-ipad/>
- Roland Dobbins
Rugged little beast...
==========
Designing an [Even More] Insecure Internet.
<http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/designing-an-insecure-internet/>
---- Roland Dobbins
============
"Moon Shots"
Did you see this by Thomas L. Friedman from the NY
Times Op-Ed section:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/26/
opinion/26friedman.html?src=me&ref=general
China is doing moon shots. Yes, that’s plural. When I
say “moon shots” I mean big, multibillion-dollar, 25-year-horizon,
game-changing investments. China has at least four going now: one is
building a network of ultramodern airports; another is building a web of
high-speed trains connecting major cities; a third is in bioscience, where
the Beijing Genomics Institute this year ordered 128 DNA sequencers — from
America — giving China the largest number in the world in one institute to
launch its own stem cell/genetic engineering industry; and, finally, Beijing
just announced that it was providing $15 billion in seed money for the
country’s leading auto and battery companies to create an electric car
industry, starting in 20 pilot cities. In essence, China Inc. just named its
dream team of 16-state-owned enterprises to move China off oil and into the
next industrial growth engine: electric cars.
As Mr. Heinlein said, mankind will go to the
planets and the stars. There is no guarantee that the language spoken there
will be English.
==
China
Regarding the China threat to our economy, there was a
similar fear during the 1976-1990 time period, that Japan was buying up the
USA (Rockefeller center), that Japanese economic policy was superior to US
policy, that Japan was going to surpass the USA. James Fallows became famous
for writing a book about the superiority of the Japanese economy and
business culture, he even moved his family to Japan in order to study the
place up close. We all know how that turned out, 20 years of economic
problems from 1991 to 2010, a declining birthrate, and the abandonment of
Japan as the economic model for the USA to emulate. A big part of the praise
for Japan back in the 1980s was that Japan was full of engineers and devoid
of lawyers, and it was the oppposite in the USA. Ironically, it was the lack
of lawyers in Japan that has prevented them from protecting stockholder
rights, modernizing the consumer economy, securing more economic rights for
working women, attacking government corruption, and from functioning as more
than a Hi-Tec feudal economy. The China threat today is like the Japan
threat of the 1980s. China’s internal problems: its corruption, lack of
infrastructure, lack of transparency, lack of modern criminal justice
systems, lack of a civil legal system protecting property and intellecual
rights, lack of freedom, and 800 million people living in third world
conditions, will prevent China from surpasssing the USA, even as Japan
failed back in the 1980s. The only way China will surpass the USA is if we
elect governments that continue to transform the US into a French European
style Socialist state that kills GDP growth and causes long term 10%
unemployment.
===========
IQ
Jerry,
The discussion on the future belonging to the high IQ
folks is interesting. I’ve taken three IQ tests over my lifetime, and the
average of them is also the middle test score of 143, so I’m assuming it’s
fairly accurate. Anyway, although I’m probably on the low end of the folks
who frequent Chaos Manor what I have found over the years of working with
Scientists, Really Smart Programmers and Really Smart Engineers is that I
serve a really great purpose. Most of the really smart people I work with,
have trouble communicating with the average person. I’ve found a niche in
that I’m able to bridge that gap, taking the high level discussions of the
really smart folks and putting it in terms the rest of us can understand and
put to use.
Strange talent…but I’ve gotten to be pretty decent at
it. And the funny thing is many folks have decided that I am the smart guy,
because of that talent…which clearly isn’t the case.
Tracy Walters, CISSP
IQ is the best single predictor we have for
performance in tasks that use symbol manipulation and complex abstract
tasks. Best single predictor doesn't mean it's all that good, and a
combination of data such as was used in the University of Washington Grade
Prediction Program is considerably better. Alas the court forbade use of the
Grade Prediction Program because it predicted lower grades for certain
racial groups although there were no racial questions on the test. Since the
program was largely used to predict grades in different majors and thus
guide students in their choices its loss was seen as unfortunate by many.
I have made much of my living for most of my life
explaining complex ideas to relatively smart people. Actually that's pretty
well what science fiction writers do, and of course I do science fact as
well. I've also been an advisor to political leaders, which is pretty much
the same job.
==========
Subject: Stephen Colbert testifies before Congress
Jerry,
If Congress had any respect for itself, they would not
have invited a comedian to testify, if Colbert had any respect for himself,
he would not have come. If I believed in conspiracy theories, I might think
Pelosi and the other clowns were trying to turn Congress into Ringling
Bros., Barnum and Bailey North. Maybe the simple answer is really that they
ARE that stupid…after all, Al Franken is one of their own.
"He comes before the committee, he has a point of
view, he can bring attention to an important issue like immigration," the
House Speaker [Nancy Pelosi] said. "I think it's great." [NYDN <http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2010/09/26/2010-09-26_house_majority_leader_steny_hoyer_stephen_colbert_was_an_embarrassment.html#ixzz10fmijTL5>
]
Tracy Walters, CISSP
===============
Gun Dealer Gets Prison for Selling to Illegal
Immigrant; Illegal 'Middle Man' Not Charged
Dr Pournelle,
In case you haven't found anything about which be
disgusted today, take a look at this.
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/09/09/
texas-gun-dealer-gets-prison-sentence-
selling-gun-illegal-immigrant-id-illegal/
"Gun rights advocates are up in arms that a Texas gun
dealer was sentenced to six months in prison for selling a firearm to an
illegal immigrant, but a "middle-man" who bought the gun for the immigrant
-- and who was in the U.S. illegally himself, but had a valid driver's
license -- was never arrested, charged or deported in the case.
Paul Copeland, 56, a Vietnam veteran, was sentenced to
prison time and two years probation in federal court last week for selling a
gun to an undocumented alien, Hipolito Aviles, at the Texas Gun Show in
Austin in January.
But Aviles wasn't the man who handed Copeland the
money for the gun. That man was Leonel Huerta Sr., who presented as
identification the valid Texas driver's license he had obtained before his
visa expired in 2007."
I guess we shouldn't be surprised by this. It wouldn't
happen in most parts of Texas, but Austin is heavily Democratic and
left-leaning. Is this a "Sow the winds" moment?
I also find it curious that this hasn't received much
press.
Matt Kirchner Houston, TX
==============
The Regulation Tax Keeps Growing (in wsj)
"One out of every three dollars earned in the U.S.
goes to pay for or comply with federal laws and regulations, and new
policies enacted in 2010 for health care and financial services will
increase this burden."
Do our morons in DC remember why the revolution
started?
Phil
Taxed Enough Already
===========
: A view of the solar system by Aliens
This is interesting. A simulation of what an alien
civilisation might see from our solar system.
http://physicsbuzz.physicscentral.com/
2010/09/aliens-eye-view-of-solar-system.html
It may be possible that ET already know about Earth
just by looking at the solar system.
sd.
=============
Border Patrol/TSA
Jerry,
This year my wife and I have been lucky enough to do
some traveling. We have gone through TSA security 8 times and US
Customs/Border Patrol checkpoints twice. Someone wrote you complaining about
being questioned by the Border Patrol. The questions they asked my wife and
me were: “How long were you gone?” and “Did you enjoy your trip?” I don’t
consider those to be intrusive questions.
The TSA agents may be curt at times, but I can’t blame
them. If I had to deal with never ending lines of idiots all day, every day,
I’d be curt too.
Three incidents:
In Atlanta, the TSA agent was saying: “Open your
passport to the picture page” over and over, interspersed with “The picture
page is the page with your picture”. Yet I saw three people hand him
passports either not open or opened in the middle.
There are signs up about the amount of liquid that can
be carried on a plane and you would have to have lived under a rock for the
last three years to not know the rules. Yet, I saw a man with a pint sized
bottle of shampoo arguing that it was only partially full and that the TSA
agent should get a measuring cup and check to see if it was over three
ounces.
The person in front of me went thru the metal detector
which buzzed. When the TSA agent asked him about any metal, he pulled up his
shirt tail to show a belt with a large metal buckle. He was sent back
through the detector and told to place all metal items in the basket going
through the x-ray. He removed the belt, but when he went back through the
detector it buzzed again. The TSA agent asked him about any metal and he
pulled up his shirt sleeve to reveal a large metal watch with a metal band.
The TSA agent sent him back telling him to place all metal items in a basket
going through the X-ray. He went through a third time and it buzzed again!
At that point I snapped at him saying that if he was too stupid to remove
all metal items, he was too stupid to fly. The TSA agent told me to come on
though the metal detector and sent him back so I don’t know what set it off
the third time.
Full disclaimer, I am a Federal Employee, but the
Border Patrol/Customs/TSA Agents did not know that. Luckily I only deal with
other Federal employees and not with the public.
Mike
Then there is the Burbank case where the TSA was
afraid of the yogurt. When your job is to convince citizens they are
subjects, there will be controversy. How much safety we buy with this is
questionable. As for instance the attempt to confiscate the Medal of Honor
from a retired general on the grounds that it was a potential weapon. Now
there's a TSA agent who deserves an exciting new career in concrete
breaking...
============
Global Average surface
temperature - the answer is...
The first overarching question, of course, is what is
meant by the ‘‘global average surface temperature’’? The National Research
Council (NRC) [2005, pp. 19 and 21] report provides a definition as
‘‘According to the radiative-convective equilibrium
concept, the equation for determining global average surface temperature of
the planet is
dH/dt = f - T'/lamda
where H. . .. . .is the heat content of the
land-ocean-atmosphere system. . ... Equation (1) describes the change in the
heat content where f is the radiative forcing at the tropopause, T' is the
change in surface temperature in response to a change in heat content, and
lamda is the climate feedback parameter [Schneider and Dickinson, 1974],
also known as the climate sensitivity parameter, which denotes the rate at
which the climate system returns the added forcing to space as infrared
radiation or as reflected solar radiation (by changes in clouds, ice and
snow, etc.).’’ [5] Thus T is the ‘‘global average surface temperature,’’ and
T' is a departure from that temperature in response to a radiative forcing
f. It appears in equation (1) above as a thermodynamic proxy for the
thermodynamic state of the Earth system. As such, it must be tightly coupled
to that thermodynamic state. Specifically, changes in T must be proportional
to changes in the radiation emitted at the top of the atmosphere. However,
where is this temperature and its change with time, T', diagnosed, and is it
closely coupled? [6] At its most tightly coupled, T is the radiative
temperature of the Earth, in the sense that a portion of the radiation
emitted at the top of the atmosphere originates at the Earth’s surface.
However, the outgoing longwave radiation is proportional to T to the 4th
power. A 1 degree C increase in the polar latitudes in the winter, for
example, would have much less of an effect on the change of longwave
emission than a 1degree C increase in the tropics. The spatial distribution
matters, whereas equation (1) ignores the consequences of this assumption. A
more appropriate measure of radiatively significant surface changes would be
to evaluate the change of the global average of T to the 4th power. [7] In
most applications of (1), T is not a radiative temperature, but rather the
temperature at a single level of the atmosphere, usually close to the
ground. The CCSP report (2006) presents three separate analyses of the
global surface temperature trend that use land- and ocean-based observations
to evaluate T'.
Etc.
http://pielkeclimatesci.files.wordpress.com/2009/10/r-321.pdf
(And the paper concludes.)
This paper presents reasons why the surface
temperature is inadequate to determine changes in the heat content of the
Earth’s climate system.
---------
-Joe
I am still looking for where the temperature
balance between the very hot interior and the cooler biosphere takes place.
How much heat flow is there from the hot interior? Is it heating or cooling?
We know that heat goes in. Is the interior temperatue constant? Is that a
dynamic constancy? I don't believe in perfect adiabatic systems. Yet I find
little about any of that in the climate models. Perhaps it is trivial, but I
would not assume so off hand. The interior of the Earth is HOT compared to
the surface. Why?
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