| Sunday,
June 13, 2010
Subject: Programming: Languages,
Vulcans and Apes
The Myth of the Super Programming Language:
http://alarmingdevelopment.org/?p=392
>>There are no super programming languages, only
super programmers. And they tend to be super jerks. I should know – I used
to be one. What would really make a programming language be super powered
is the ability to be used by normal people.<<
Personally, I think this point is to some extent true,
but overstated. Flon's Axiom says that "There does not now, nor will there
ever, exist a programming language in which it is the least bit hard to
write bad programs." That's true, but it's subtly and importantly different
from the claim that there are no languages in which it's hard to write
*good* programs.
In programming, as in (the rest of?) mathematics, to
do anything non-trivial is to walk a fine line between (a) working in a
context complicated enough to make simple what we are trying to do and (b)
working in a context so complicated that we lose track of what we are trying
to do, what we have in fact done, and what the differences between those two
might be.
Which leads to ...
Vulcans vs Apes:
http://alarmingdevelopment.org/?p=440
>>[O]n Vulcan, programming is a form of applied
mathematics. All software is precisely specified using logic and
mathematics. What’s more, these formal specifications rarely change. So
programming is like proving a theorem, and Vulcan programming languages
are like mathematics. ...
[O]n the Planet of the Apes ... [t]here are no
written rules, and the rules are continually evolving, yet Apes can
simultaneously fulfill a dozen different roles without breaking their
rules. On top of this, the Apes have integrated software throughout their
society. All sorts of automated systems play central roles: communication,
entertainment, accounting, manufacturing, distribution, you name it. All
these systems exist primarily to interact with Apes in their informal
shifting social games. So there are no formal specifications, nor can
there be any. As a result the Apes have developed a style of programming
inconceivable to Vulcans. Their software is constantly being redesigned,
so they make it as lightweight and clear-cut as possible. The Apes can’t
prove their software is correct, and they seem puzzled by the very idea,
as if they were being asked to prove correct a chair. However they design
amazing user interfaces that harmoniously blend cognitive, artistic, and
emotional significance. ... If the purpose of your system is to interact
with sentients in a social or economic context, you get an Ape to program
it. Using Vulcan tools.<<
Rod
Montgomery==monty@starfief.com
That is sufficiently
interesting that I want to think about it before commenting. But I do know
that maintaining code written by others is difficult, no matter how many
comments are made in the code; and code in some languages is far easier than
maintaining code in other languages.
Clarity and comprehensibility
are important, and now that the hardware is as good as it is, compile times,
bumming code to save bits, and all the old tricks are not important --
indeed are counterproductive.
=============
SUBJ: You don't have to be George Orwell to find
these two items disturbing. Steadily, incrementally, more and more parts
are falling into place for something horribly Frankenstein to emerge.
1. Senators propose granting president "emergency
Internet power"
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13578_3-20007418-38.html
"The idea of an Internet "kill switch" that the
president could flip is not new. That emergency authority would allow the
federal government to 'preserve those networks and assets and our country
and protect our people,' Joe Lieberman, the primary sponsor of the measure
and the chairman of the Homeland Security committee, told reporters on
Thursday."
Don't you safer already?
coupled with . . .
2. US Air Force's first homeland defense ORI
http://www.northcom.mil/News/2010/060310.html
"For the very first time, the U.S. Air Force has
validated a unit's wartime capability to defend the homeland by fighting an
enemy right here on U.S. soil,"
What enemy would that be, exactly?
Cordially, John
"Paranoia is Liberty's first line of defense."
============
Subject: The Iron Law in Action?
Hi Jerry
In one of your books or columns, you state that
unrestrained bureaucracy leads inevitably to so much spending on structure
that organizations eventually become so admin. heavy they are no longer
capable of accomplishing their stated goals.
It seems to me that when Military Hospitals cannot
care for wounded war veterans without causing scandal, Arlington cannot
certify that remains have been properly identified and accounted for, and an
oil company is incapable of stopping their own well, we may have reached
that point.
Near my home, the city of Detroit is threatening to
lay off dozens of cops and firemen, but has hired, in the last few years,
dozens of administrators and consultants for jobs paying 100K + per year.
Similarly, if it is indeed true that more and more people are losing their
health insurance, why are there more and more jobs needed in the health care
administration career field?
We live in interesting times.
Dave Porter
Throughout 100,000 years of
human history, technology advances such as the invention of agriculture have
resulted not in greater standards of living for the masses, but in more
people living at subsistence levels. The average calorie intake, the average
standard of living in England in 1800 turns out not to be all that much
greater than it had been in Roman times, or even in huner gatherer times --
but there were a lot more English. (And, of course, there were more rich
people in Regency times than in Roman times.)
The Industrial Revolution is
supposed to have changed all that Malthusian stuff; but looking at Detroit
now, one wonders. The late Beam Piper was concerned with what he called 'decivilization'
of planets. Perhaps we will get to see it first hand. We used to invest in
real education that increased productivity of those educated. Is that true
now? Certainly it is for some, but over all, does our expensive school
system increase productivity? Is it a good investment?
The Iron Law is unforgiving.
And it may well lead to subsistence living for the masses. The
administrators will do well, of course. There is always an aristocracy that
is well fed. What it does to deserve this varies from aristocracy to
aristocracy.
===========
Snows?
Jerry,
National radar is still showing significant
precipitation as mountain snow in Utah and Wyoming as of 0700 MT Saturday 11
Jun.
http://www.intellicast.com/
National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USCO0105
(Note: situation will likely have changed; this image
updates regional radar roughly twice per hour)
Jim
And we still have a quiet Sun.
Snow patterns are more dependent on rainfall patterns, and I don't think we
understand those much better than the Farmer's Almanac.
==
NASA solar activity
Jerry,
Regarding the NASA report on solar activity: I'd
certainly be the last person saying that we shouldn't study or take
precautions, but the data currently shows that the Sun is currently heading
into a downturn rather than an upswing. Of course, it could still try to
cram six years of normal activity into a shortened solar maximum -- and if I
recall correctly, the great flare of 1859 was in the midst of a solar
minimum.
Right now, the sun is quiet with barely a spot....
www.solarcycle24.com
He hasn't uploaded the May averages as of my most
recent check, but my rough average over the month is that May is more or
less on par with April's values, representing a sharp shutdown of the what
had been anticipated from the trend curve.
Jim
1859 was a time of solar
minimum
==========
BP Negligence
Jerry,
I would like to respond to James Crawford's response
to my suggestions concerning what might be considered to prevent future
disasters and possibly bring the current disaster under control.
I have no doubt that Mr. Crawford's descriptions of
the problems involved in securing the riser or unbolting it from the blow
out preventer are accurate. However, it is exactly these difficulties that
make BP's actions prior to the blowout so egregious.
Perhaps the most dangerous situation that can occur
during the drilling and completion of a well is the uncontrolled escape of
natural gas. This is, most likely, an order of magnitude greater on an off
shore rig than on shore. On shore it is much easier to remove potential
sources of ignition from the vicinity of the well head than it is on an off
shore rig.
Testimony that has been presented indicates that BP
made a decision to continue replacing the drilling mud with sea water as
final steps to closing in the well when there were a number of indications
that the cement job had not successfully sealed the well.
We do not need to make any evaluation of BP's clean up
efforts or their perhaps fraudulent disaster plan to state that the current
situation was caused by gross negligence on the part of BP.
Bob Holmes
Sent from my iPad
And their preparation report
included how to deal with oily sea otters. BP certainly did not take proper
precautions. Nor did the US government.
==
BP's Spill Response Plan for Deepwater Horizon
Jerry -
It takes more than just requiring that detailed
contingency plans be approved before drilling - the authors of the plan, and
the bureaucrats approving them, have to be capable of critically examining
what's been written.
The AP actually read the contingency plan that BP
presented last year (and which the current administration approved), and
noticed that it included a reference to an expert who had been dead for four
years, plans for saving arctic sea-going mammals like walruses, and
incorrect contact information for Texas A&M marine wildlife experts. Need
one be overly partisan to seriously wonder whether the current crop of
bureaucrats (and legislators) can read:
"BP PLC's 582-page regional spill plan for the Gulf,
and its 52-page, site-specific plan for the Deepwater Horizon rig are
riddled with omissions and glaring errors, according to an Associated Press
analysis that details how BP officials have pretty much been making it up as
they go along. The lengthy plans approved by the federal government last
year before BP drilled its ill-fated well vastly understate the dangers
posed by an uncontrolled leak and vastly overstate the company's
preparedness to deal with one."
http://www.ajc.com/business/ap-impact-bp-spill-544727.html
David Smith
==
BP Riser
I've seen a number of readers wondering why the riser
wasn't unbolted from the BOP and replaced with something that could capture
the oil and contain the spill. No doubt the BOP/Riser flanges were put
together with full sized bolts which fit snugly in the flange bolt holes.
After only a few weeks in salt water, those bolts would have become
"body-bound" inside the flange bolt holes. Corrosion expansion inside the
close tolerances would have rendered the bolts virtually welded to the
flanges. Even if the nuts could have been removed from the bolts, the bolts
would have had to be pressed out with a very powerful hydraulic press. Large
portable hydraulic presses are not particularly user friendly. I have seen
such a procedure fail in open air on accessible flanges, with the bolts
having to be burned out with a torch. The hydraulic press set that would fit
was not powerful enough, and the press set that was powerful enough was too
large to fit. Probably not a viable solution at 5000 feet.
Bruce
============
If the government wont do it, people will.
<http://www.foxnews.com/us/
2010/06/08/alabamas-magnolia-
river-gets-mired-nightmare-red-tape-
protect-gulf-oil-spill/>
"It's illegal to block this waterway. But if the oil
comes, we're going to bring a barge in and use it as a gate to block it,"
said Hixon. "They can arrest me and Jamie if they want to."
David March
Beware the boot on the neck.
=========
Tweaking a Camera to Suit a Hobby - NYTimes.com
(Hacking Nikon cameras)
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/27/
technology/personaltech/27basics.html?
src=un&feedurl=http%3A%2F%2Fjson8.
nytimes.com%2Fpages%2Ftechnology%2
Fpersonaltech%2Findex.jsonp
Jerry,
This is a really cool hack. Worth a read.
Randy Lea
==============
The Kindle
Jerry,
According to The Register the large number of students
who have been issued with textbooks on Kindle e-book readers generally
dislike it as a learning and research tool. This is because it is not easy
to make marginal notes, use bookmarks, or just flick through it to find the
desired passage. They did like it for linear reading though. The Register
story is at:-
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/05/26/kindle_flunks_out_of_college/
Glad to hear Sable is better.
John Edwards
If you use a Kindle to read a
technical book you will need a paper log book for notes. That's probably
true with iPad for really technical stuff, of course.
The biggest problem with
Kindle books on Kindle as opposed to Kindle books on a Kindle App on iPad is
thumbing through pages. It's much easier with iPad. Much.
==
Most Students Prefer Print Textbooks to Digital
Versions, Survey Finds - The Ticker - The Chronicle of Higher Education
http://chronicle.com/blogPost/
Most-Students-Prefer-Print/24304/
Dear Jerry:
The Digital Revolution is not yet accomplished, it
seems. This and the comments following indicate why.
Sincerely,
Francis Hamit
=========
'Each time she was hired back, it seems, Census was
able to report the creation of a new job to the Labor Department.'
<http://www.nypost.com/p/
news/business/two_more_census_
workers_blow_the_OqY80N3DBTvL17VmxKKR0O>
--- Roland Dobbins
===========
RE: Improving economic growth while reducing carbon dioxide emissions
You discuss Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) frequently on your site.
One issue you have raised several times is that the AGW movement seeks to
impose very costly solutions to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Solutions
such as cap and trade impose high costs for uncertain benefits.
One way to avoid the problem of definite economic costs and uncertain
environmental benefits is to develop a solution that improves both. There is
at least one win-win solution for the US. A green shift in tax revenue
-reducing income and payroll taxes while raising fuel tax to keep total
revenue constant- would provide large benefits to the United States.
Benefits include faster economic growth, more jobs, a cleaner environment,
less global warming, and enhanced national security.
The maximum benefit would come from a $175 billion shift from FICA
payroll taxes to gasoline and diesel tax. This shift corresponds to reducing
payroll taxes from 12.4% to 10% without changing the income cap, and
increasing combined federal/state/local gasoline and diesel tax from $0.40
to $1.01 per gallon.
Economic growth. Consumption taxes do not reduce long-run economic growth
as much as income and payroll taxes of the same amount. Shifting from the
current tax regime to gasoline and diesel taxes would increase investment
and saving, which would increase GDP by 2-5%.
More jobs. Payroll taxes kill jobs. Lower payroll taxes kill fewer jobs.
Reducing the payroll tax by about $175 billion through the green shift would
result in about 2 million more jobs.
Reducing pollution 1. Burning gasoline emits nitrogen oxides, sulphur
dioxide, carbon monoxide, volatile organic compounds, and soot. The green
shift would reduce transportation fuel use in the US by about 15 billion
gallons per year after a transition of about 5-10 years, which would reduce
pollution.
Reducing pollution 2. Assuming that accidents such as the current Deep
Horizon blow-out are correlated with fuel use, using less petroleum fuels
would reduce pollution from spills in extracting and processing.
Global warming. Reducing fuel use by 15 billion gallons per year would
reduce carbon dioxide emissions by about 75 million tons per year. Higher
gasoline taxes would address environmental concerns.
Road congestion. A higher gas tax would reduce congestion on streets and
highways. The social cost of congestion on time lost and reduced production
is very high.
Regulatory relief. The United States addresses energy dependence through
corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards. These rules have unintended
consequences such as promoting SUVs (light trucks have laxer standards than
cars).
National security. It is hard to judge how much high oil consumption
drives U.S. involvement in Middle Eastern politics. As higher US gas and
diesel taxes discouraged oil consumption, the price of oil would fall. The
tax burden would be shared by consumers, and producers such as Iran and
Saudi Arabia. With less revenue from oil, these countries may not spend as
much promoting terrorism, and imported oil less important, the US might
reduce involvement.
References The calculation of the optimal level of gas tax in the United
States was done by Parry, I and Small Does Britain or The United States Have
the Right Gasoline Tax? American Economic Review September 2005. A free
version is available at:
<http://www.socsci.uci.edu/~ksmall/
Parry_Small_fuel_tax_AER.pdf>
The recommendation to replace payroll taxes with enhanced fuel taxes was
made by Prof G Mankiw during the debate on the US stimulus package. The
theoretical arguments for improving social welfare by increasing the fuel
tax are found at:
http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/
2006/10/pigou-club-manifesto.html
<http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/
2006/12/pigovian-questions.html>
The specific calculations of jobs and carbon dioxide reduction are my own
based on published elasticities. Your readers can duplicate them with little
effort.
Thank-you
Ptarmigan
I find static analyses
somewhat unconvincing; and alas, I do not concede that reducing CO2 is worth
the costs it will in my judgment inevitably impose on productivity. The best
way to reduce CO2 in the long run is to go nuclear; and to do more research
on carbon fixing with methods like iron filings in the sea to cause plankton
blooms. In my judgment.
I don't disagree that reducing
the trade deficit by reducing dependence on oil is a Good Thing. I am
unconvinced that this will accomplish it.
==========
SUBJ: GAO: half a billion dollars wasted for TSA
voodoo science
http://www.consumertraveler.com/today/
gao-report-tsas-behavior-detection-voodoo/
"TSA behavior detection officers’ (BDO) current
behavior detection performance has no more validation than having TSA
screeners wear masks and shake rattles at passengers."
"When all is said and done, it appears that over the
years, more than half a billion dollars has been spent without a single
terrorist suspect being apprehended."
The TSA is a striking example of what happens when
Permanent Underclass attempt to become Nomenklatura.
Cordially, John
From watching its effects I
infer that the purpose of TSA is to convince Americans that they are
subjects, not citizens, and that it accomplishes this well indeed.
Do we not feel safer already?
=============w
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