| Friday,
November 27, 2009
Climate science in action
See the climate scientists. See them scient.
Hello Jerry,
http://www.universetoday.com/2009/10/06/
arctic-sea-ice-extent-is-third-lowest-on-record/ leads with the
following headline:
October 6th, 2009 Arctic Sea Ice Extent is Third
Lowest on Record <http://www.universetoday.com/
2009/10/06/
arctic-sea-ice-extent-is-third-lowest-on-record/>
Then proceeds to tell us of all the horrific effects
that we can expect as the Arctic ice cap disappears, which it is doing at an
accelerating rate. (From "The Oreganian", 11/27/2009: "A group of climate
scientists released "The Copenhagen Diagnosis" on Tuesday, saying that
global ice-sheets are melting at an increased rate, Arctic sea ice is
disappearing much faster than recently projected, and future sea-level rise
is now expected to be much higher than forecast.")
In the story, two facts, while contained in the story,
were most empathetically not emphasized:
1. Satellite records, which provide the ENTIRE
historical record upon which the claim of the 'third lowest on record' is
based, started in 1979, which was when the warnings of an impending ice age
were just beginning to wind down. Said claims being based to a large degree
on the UNPRECEDENTED and rapidly INCREASING extent of, yep, Arctic sea ice.
(Remember the proposals to coat the Arctic and Antarctic ice with coal dust
to promote melting and stave off the imminent ice age?)
2. While 2009 may indeed be the third lowest (I
haven't checked the data, and at any rate, if it is more than 5 minutes old
it may have already been 'adjusted'.), 2007 was supposedly the absolute
lowest. According to the story, 2008 was 390,000 square km greater than 2007
and 2009 was 580,000 square km greater than 2008. Therefore, Arctic ice in
2009 was 970,000 square km GREATER than in 2007.
So. In a historical record with 41 data points, in
which the first data point may have been a record or near record high (We
don't know and have no way of knowing.), we have a low point in 2007, with
substantial increases in both subsequent years. The second year increase was
greater than the first year increase. Conclusion of the 'Climate
Scientists', who settled the science years ago and no longer need to scient:
Thanks to 'Anthropogenic Global Warming', Arctic sea ice is decreasing
rapidly, at an accelerating rate, and we must soon face the consequences of
an ice free Arctic. All of which are negative.
I don't know what people are complaining about. Faced
with the facts presented in the article, that would certainly be MY
reasoned, scientific, fraud free conclusion.
Bob Ludwick
On of the most alarming consequences of the climate
change conspiracy has been the politicization of science. Hustling for
grants used to be a problem but it wasn't the all consuming passion. Now it
is, and we get a failure in logic.
My friend Ed Begley continues to insist that we pay
attention only to "peer reviewed" studies; which at one time would have been
decent advice. But when "who is a peer" becomes part of the debate, and only
those in your camp are considered peers -- don't publish in or cite journals
that publish opposition theories or data -- then "peer review" itself
becomes part of the conspiracy.
The motives may be good. There are scientists who
actually believe that climate change deniers are all paid by oil companies
and take the money knowing that they have to produce an oil company friendly
result. The people who do that are often supported by peer reviewed grants
-- which they would lose if they published data or conclustions contrary to
the consensus. Much of that is coming out in the hacked emails.
The destruction of scientific independence seems to
be rapid and steady, and continuing. Perhaps the latest revelations will
slow that trend. Perhaps.
==
: A lawyer takes a look at "climategate"
Jerry:
Ilya Somin at the Volokh Conspiracy is not an expert
in science. He's a law professor. One of the things lawyers may occasionally
find themselves evaluating evidence. An excerpt of his take on the meaning
of "climategate":
Most of us, however, lack expertise on climate issues.
And our knowledge of complex issues we don’t have personal expertise on is
largely based on social validation <http://ezinearticles.com/?
Social-Validation-Sells&id=215893> . For example, I think that
Einsteinian physics is generally more correct than Newtonian physics, even
though I know very little about either. Why? Because that’s the overwhelming
consensus of professional physicists, and I have no reason to believe that
their conclusions should be discounted as biased or otherwise driven by
considerations other than truth-seeking. My views of climate science were
(and are) based on similar considerations. I thought that global warming was
probably a genuine and serious problem because that is what the overwhelming
majority of relevant scientists seem to believe, and I generally didn’t
doubt their objectivity.
At the very least, the Climategate revelations should
weaken our confidence in the above conclusion. At least some of the
prominent scholars in the field seem driven at least in part by ideology,
and willing to use intimidation to keep contrarian views from being
published, even if the articles in question meet normal peer review
standards <http://pajamasmedia.com/blog
/three-things-you-absolutely-must-know-about-climategate/> .
Absent such tactics, it’s possible that more contrarian research would be
published in professional journals and the consensus in the field would be
less firm. To be completely clear, I don’t think that either ideological
motivation or even intimidation tactics prove that these scientists’ views
are wrong. Their research should be assessed on its own merits, irrespective
of their motivations for conducting it. However, these things should affect
the degree to which we defer to their conclusions merely based on their
authority as disinterested experts.
http://volokh.com/2009/11/24/
climategate-and-the-social-validation-of-knowledge/
..................................Karl Lembke
==================
: Why Do Fiction
Publishers Get So Uptight About Self-Publishing? | Self-Publishing Review
http://www.selfpublishingreview.com/
2009/11/27/why-do-fiction-publishers-
get-so-uptight-about-self-publishing/
Dear Jerry:
Here is a unique take on the Harlequin self-publishing
controversy which compares it to scientific publishing practices. From Self
Publishing Review.
Sincerely,
Francis Hamit
==
'If I had the rights to all six of my Hyperion books,
and sold them on Kindle for $1.99, I'd be making $20,580 per year off of
them, total, rather than $4818 a year off of them, total.'
<http://jakonrath.blogspot.com/
2009/10/kindle-numbers-traditional-
publishing.html>
--- Roland Dobbins
Which is interesting, and needs some consideration.
I have some works that might profitably be done as Kindle works. I need to
look into this. It takes formatting properly and getting familiar with the
Kindle self-publishing mechanisms, and I presume a certain amount of
publicity.
I can't complain about Baen's marketing, but I have
some older works -- hmm. I need to think on this after this weekend.
==
The death of the printed book is closer than you
think.
<http://arvindn.livejournal.com/120810.html>
- Roland Dobbins
==============
'HSBC cannot cope with the number of investors keeping
gold in their 5th Ave vault.'
<http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/56509,news-comment,
news-politics,armoured-trucks-leave-nyc-loaded-with-gold>
-- Roland Dobbins
===============
The Apostrophe Monster
Apostrophe Abuse: It is almost overwhelming today;
more and more plurals are spelled with an apostrophe separating the "s" from
the rest of the word. Wrong. WRONG. W*R*O*N*G!!! And yet I've caught myself
and others who should know better including that dang punctuation mark
incorrectly. All by way of introducing Oatmeal's excellent post on the
proper usage -- go there right now! And for a eyeful of how bad it is out
there in the real world, visit Apostrophe Abuse.
http://apostrophe.me/
http://www.apostropheabuse.com/
Julie
===============
Empire News
U.S., Polish Officials Agree to Terms for Stationing
American Troops in Poland
Thursday, November 26, 2009
http://www.foxnews.com/images/service_ap_36.gif
WARSAW, Poland — A Polish official says the U.S. and
Poland have agreed on terms for stationing American troops and military
equipment in the eastern European country.
The move is a prerequisite for deploying U.S. Patriot
missiles to Poland next year and a possible future missile defense site.
Defense Ministry spokesman Robert Rochowicz said
Thursday Prime Minister Donald Tusk's government must still approve it. He
didn't say when that would happen or give other details.
In addition, Poland has expressed willingness to host
elements of a new U.S. missile-defense system that would replace a scrapped
Bush-era plan.
L
============
'Was Newton right and Einstein wrong?'
<http://www.scientificamerican.com/
article.cfm?id=splitting-time-from-space&print=true>
- Roland Dobbins
Since neither was able to work quantum effects into
his theory, it is likely that both are wrong in some fundamental way. If
time is really an arrow and not just another dimension, the way we look at
the universe is profoundly different.
From Aye Eternal...
===========
Nukes or Economic Collapse?
Dear Dr. Pournelle:
Tim Garrett, associate professor of climate sciences
at the University of Utah, has published a controversial paper in the
journal Climatic Change that argues that CO2 emissions cannot be stabilized
unless either the economy collapses or the world adds one new nuclear plant
each day.
Garrett is not an economist and doesn't pretend to be
one. Rather, he looks at civilization as a heat engine that consumes energy
and performs work in the form of economic production. This concept has led
to several interesting results, some of which are rejected by traditional
economists. For example:
Economic production has had a constant value in terms
of energy consumption throughout human history, stretching back for the 2000
years he studied. The value is 9.7 milliwatts per inflation-adjusted 1990
dollar.
Conserving energy doesn't reduce energy use, but spurs
economic growth, which ends up increasing net energy use. Garrett found that
he had rediscovered this principle, which dates at least as far back as the
1865 book, "The Coal Question", by William Stanley Jevons.
And here's a winner: "It is only by consuming energy
that civilization is able to maintain the activities that give it economic
value. This means that if we ever start to run out of energy, then the value
of civilization is going to fall and even collapse absent discovery of new
energy sources."
I know a lot of this seems obvious to many readers of
your column, but it's nice to see an independent voice confirming all this.
Article about the study here (not the journal article,
which will be published later this week):
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/
Is_Global_Warming_Unstoppable_999.html
Jeff Larson Webster, Texas
==============
Counterinsurgency
"'Since February, combat
veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan have been advising Salinas police on
counterinsurgency strategy, bringing lessons from the battlefield to the
meanest streets in an American city.'
-- Roland Dobbins"
Ironically, my (Reserve)
battalion in Iraq had a number of policemen (deputies, city/local, & State
Troopers) in the ranks. I detailed several to counterinsurgency activities
using their experience from urban gang counter-crime and anti-drug
trafficking principles they were intimately familiar with. Worked quite
well...
Couv
David Couvillon
Colonel, U.S. Marine Corps,
Retired.;
Former Governor of Wasit Province, Iraq;
Righter of Wrongs; Wrong most of the time; Distinguished Expert, TV remote
control; Chef de Hot Dog Excellance; Collector of Hot Sauce; Avoider of
Yard Work
============
Graphic of the "Nature trick" in ClimateGate
Perhaps someone has already brought this your
attention. The site below purports to graphically show the change in the
'global' temperature based on the "Nature trick" mentioned in one of the
more infamous emails of ClimateGate:
http://theblogprof.blogspot.com/2009/11/leaked-cru-computer-program-proves.html
I have not run the number and cannot vouch for the
results, but if correct, it is more than interesting.
-----------
Clay Booker
============
Scientist Repeats Swine Flu Lab-Escape Claim in
Published Study.
<http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/
news?pid=20601124&sid=ajw2AS.d1wK8>
-- Roland Dobbins
=============
Nanny State and a Congressional Bankruptcy of Ideas
Jerry,
I was listening to CBS Radio News in my car yesterday
and one segment was devoted to a group that wants the increase in Corporate
Average Fuel Economy to be even higher that the current future rules, 45
MPG. The statement was made that there just wasn't sufficient demand for
high mileage vehicles and that this was the only way to get high mileage
vehicles made. Piffle!
If we really want to reduce demand for gasoline how
about a $2.00 per gallon or so increase in the Federal Tax. But wait cry the
bleeding hearts, that will fall too heavily on the poor. Easily solved by a
direct rebate from old Uncle Sam with a phase out based on income.
This same lack of innovation by our Legislators on
Health Care and myriad other issues is smothering our Freedoms and our
Economy. Let the Government do what only Government can do, Uphold the
Constitution, provide for the Common Defense from threats Foreign and
Domestic, enforce contracts both private and public and provide a common
medium of exchange. The remainder should be left to the States. Of course,
this is too simple for the simple fools that we elect to Congress.
Bob Holmes
================
At U, future teachers may be reeducated
http://www.startribune.com/opinion/
commentary/70662162.html?elr=
KArksc8P:Pc:Ug8P:Pc:UiD3aPc:_
Yyc:aULPQL7PQLanchO7DiUr
"In a report compiled last summer, the Race, Culture,
Class and Gender Task Group at the U's College of Education and Human
Development recommended that aspiring teachers there must repudiate the
notion of "the American Dream" in order to obtain the recommendation for
licensure required by the Minnesota Board of Teaching. Instead, teacher
candidates must embrace -- and be prepared to teach our state's kids -- the
task force's own vision of America as an oppressive hellhole: racist, sexist
and homophobic."
I still think my state would be better off with me
teaching high school history, but the education classes convinced me I'm
better off working in some other field of endeavor. I fear this isn't as
extreme and unusual a position for the Task Group as it should be.
Graves
==
China in the US,
Jerry,
I guess this is what happens when people don't learn
their history. The people who have written about the abuse during the
cultural revolution in China must be stunned to see Mao's plans instituted
in the one of the few free places on earth.
Sue
http://www.startribune.com/opinion/commentary/70662162.html
Katherine Kersten: At U, future teachers may be
reeducated
They must denounce exclusionary biases and embrace
the vision. (Or else.)
By KATHERINE KERSTEN, Star Tribune
Last update: November 22, 2009 - 6:57 PM
Do you believe in the American dream -- the idea
that in this country, hardworking people of every race, color and creed
can get ahead on their own merits? If so, that belief may soon bar you
from getting a license to teach in Minnesota public schools -- at least if
you plan to get your teaching degree at the University of Minnesota's Twin
Cities campus.
In a report compiled last summer, the Race, Culture,
Class and Gender Task Group at the U's College of Education and Human
Development recommended that aspiring teachers there must repudiate the
notion of "the American Dream" in order to obtain the recommendation for
licensure required by the Minnesota Board of Teaching. Instead, teacher
candidates must embrace -- and be prepared to teach our state's kids --
the task force's own vision of America as an oppressive hellhole: racist,
sexist and homophobic.
The task group is part of the Teacher Education
Redesign Initiative, a multiyear project to change the way future teachers
are trained at the U's flagship campus. The initiative is premised, in
part, on the conviction that Minnesota teachers' lack of "cultural
competence" contributes to the poor academic performance of the state's
minority students. Last spring, it charged the task group with coming up
with recommendations to change this. In January, planners will review the
recommendations and decide how to proceed. <snip>
==
Perhaps related?
A crack in the facade?
<http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/27/world/asia/27china.html>
--- Roland Dobbins
===========
'It's easy to manufacture a scientific consensus when
you get to decide what counts as science.'
<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014
240527487034994045745596303820484
94.html?mod=googlenews_wsj>
--- Roland Dobbins
Precisely.
=================
Actors Will Do Anything To Land A Role,
Jerry
You probably know better than I that Actors Will Do
Anything To Land A Role:
http://www.deadline.com/
hollywood/actors-will-do-anything-to-land-a-role/
Just wait for the marshmallow scene, about halfway
through.
Ed
The thing to remember in these cases: he's a bear,
and you're not.
==============w
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