| Tuesday,
July 7, 2009 String theory possibly useful
for something, after all?
http://esciencenews.com/articles/
2009/07/06/physical.reality.string.
theory.demonstrated
--- Roland Dobbins
Interesting. It's the first I have heard of
connecting string theory to reality. Of course it's not a test of a
falsifiable prediction, but it's at least an analogy with observations.
===========
Note the emphasis on revenue-generation, instead of
compliance with the law.
Note the emphasis on revenue-generation, instead of
compliance with the law. In all these traffic-camera schemes create a
perverse incentive to the states employing them, the interests of the state
- i.e., in this failed age we inhabit, said interests apparently consisting
solely of the making of money - are only served when the citizenry break the
law.
<http://www.wtol.com/
Global/story.asp?S=10641049>
The next phase will undoubtedly involve some sort of
inducement such as re-zoning certain stretches of road for lower speed
limits, while failing to post signs reflecting the change (remember,
ignorance of the law isn't considered a valid defense). And now that the
cameras will be used to check for valid auto insurance - never mind all the
false positives the system will generate due to database errors and so forth
- I'm sure the laws will be altered to make auto insurance more
expensive/difficult to obtain, so as to increase the pool of violators who
can be caught on camera and fined.
-- Roland Dobbins
There used to be lots of cartoons about small
town motorcycle cops hiding behind billboards to catch speeders as they
came into a whistle stop town. At one time I was Deputy Marshal of
Carnation in the state of Washington; my fried Don Arnett was Marshal and
he got the Mayor to deputize me. One of the things we were expected to do
was to write at least one traffic ticket an evening, which was about
enough to cover our pay. I did it for a lark, of course (and got some of
the scenes for Red Heroin out of it).
Towns and small cities have often chosen traffic
laws and parking tickets as revenue enhancements that don't raise taxes...
===========
Dark age
Jerry,
How to know that you're entering a Dark Age:
As Mr. Heinlein said, "Vox populi, vox Dei" is usually
translated as "My God! How did we get into this mess?"
Hence, the transition to a Dark age entails (this
appears to be a necessary and sufficient condition, but may not be unique):
> "Come home with your shields, or on them" falls into
disdain. Note that this applies to both the standing army and the militia
(in the traditional sense). People who are not willing to take up arms in
protection of their own lives (witness Virginia Tech), much less their
property, their neighbors, or their personal liberty, are cattle, or prey,
for whoever comes by with a weapon. Note: that's not an opinion; that's a
definition. I'm certainly not the historian you are, and I've never gotten
around to reading Gibbon, but what I have read (see above) confirms that
Rome was pretty much disarmed before the Barbarians arrived. (Again, Mr.
Heinlein: "Later, this custom declined. So did Rome.")
> "Bread and circuses" becomes the norm, rather than
the exception. Any form of labor -- including intellectual labor -- which
can be considered "too hard" is pursued by a decreasing minority, which
eventually collapses under the weight of the non-productive majority. One
reason, again not necessarily unique, is when the rewards for the extra
labor become disproportionate to the effort.
> Barbarians are at the gates wanting to take the
bread and circuses for themselves, or to deny them to others because they
can't enjoy them. In the long run, this always involves the Barbarians
taking the remaining bread by force from the cowed populace, leaving the
survivors to starve.
IF the United States is and is to remain unique in
history, the fact that 50% or so of the populace remains committed to the
founder's principles must act to break this sequence of events.
Historically, it has been insufficient for this to be accomplished purely
through the polls, once a majority is able to vote for bread and circuses
paid by the minority.
Anon
Well, 'tis not so dark as that. Yet.
==========
Subject: NSA plans massive, 65MW, $2bn data center in Utah
http://www.theregister.co.uk/
2009/07/03/new_nsa_data_center/
Tracy Walters, CISSP
That ought to get us into space. A data center in
Utah.
OOPS! Thanks to reader Newbury
N.S.A not N.A.S.A but don't
feel bad. I mis-read the headline when I first saw it on The Register
too!.
Geoff
===========
Swedish example
Dear Doctor Pournelle,
There's been a lot of talk over the past year about
America becoming more like Sweden, that we can learn a lot from Sweden about
everything from how to run health care to how to get rid of "bad banks", and
so on.
Want to know one way the Swedes manage to do so much
so economically (although taking 70 per cent of national income for
government DOES help out a bit)?
Turns out that, very quietly, the Swedes have been
running the world's first (that I know of) modern experiment in Unilateral
Disarmament!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_armed_forces
"At present Sweden can mobilize a force consisting of
two mechanized battalions and some auxiliary companies after 90 days of
mobilization." (N.B. A battalion is usually around 600 to 800 solders or
marines.)
"Full mobilization is assumed to take one year
(although no mobilization readiness exists).."
"...after rapid draw-downs in the mid-to-late 1990s,
there are now more admirals and generals in the Swedish Armed Forces force
than there are ships and artillery pieces, respectively, for them to
command."
I am simply gobsmacked at those clever Swedes. How
stunningly obvious. Yes, we just need to be more like them!
I doubt this is actually news to the pundits that push
for the USA to be more like Sweden. It is, in all likelihood, one of the
ways in which they would like the USA to be more like Sweden.
By the way, the number of military age male Muslims
resident in Sweden is about five times the manpower of two battalions (and
some auxiliary companies). As is also the birthrate of their community as
compared to that of native Swedes.
I simply cannot wait to see how this experiment turns
out! We do live in such Interesting Times!
Petronius
=========
Behavioral Geneticist Celebrates Twins, Scorns PC
Science
Caught this in the New Scientist
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/325/5936/27
Behavioral Geneticist Celebrates Twins, Scorns PC
Science Constance Holden
Twins researcher Thomas Bouchard spoke with Science at
the Behavior Genetics Association meeting last month; his comments have been
edited for clarity and brevity. Last month, the Behavior Genetics
Association held its annual meeting in Minneapolis, home of the world-famous
Minnesota Study of Twins Reared Apart. Attendees took the occasion to honor
psychologist Thomas Bouchard, the man who started it all. Bouchard, 71, is
retiring after 40 years at the University of Minnesota, Twin Cities, and has
moved to Steamboat Springs, Colorado.
Bouchard spoke with Science at the meeting; his
comments have been edited for clarity and brevity.
Q: What got you into twin studies?
TB: I was teaching the psychology of individual
differences, and in 1979, two different people put a copy in my mailbox of a
story about twins reared apart and their similarities when they met. [These
were the "Jim twins," Jim Springer and Jim Lewis, who had been separated at
birth and reunited at age 39. Both married women named Linda, divorced, and
remarried women named Betty. They named their sons James Allan and James
Alan, respectively, and both had dogs named Toy.] They sounded interesting,
so I asked a few of my colleagues to help me study them. We ended up
studying twins reared apart—126 pairs including 74 pairs of identical
twins—for 20 years. [The twin study wound down in 2000.] I found that I
loved working with twins. They're still amazing and a major mystery to me.
Q: What were attitudes toward behavioral genetics in
the early years of your career?
TB: In graduate school at UC [the University of
California] Berkeley, I was reading a book edited by psychiatrist D. D.
Jackson on the etiology of schizophrenia. The first chapter, by a
geneticist, was on twin studies. Then Jackson refuted it all with just the
kind of crap you hear now against twin studies. He said families are the
cause of schizophrenia. I remember saying in a graduate seminar, "Most of
this stuff [in Jackson's argument] is junk"—I crawled out of the seminar
room a bloody pulp. The reaction [from seminar members] was my first
absolutely clear-cut demonstration that psychologists believed correlation
is causation, ... and many still do.
In the '70s, when I was teaching research by [IQ
researcher Arthur] Jensen and [twin researcher Francis] Galton, people
picketed me, called me a racist, tried to get me fired. The progressive
student association sent members in to ask hostile questions. ... So I put a
tape recorder on the podium and said: "I'm going to tape my lectures." I
never heard from them again. They knew what they were saying was nonsense
and I would be able to prove it. <snip>
Twin studies are a key data source in determining
what is and is not inherited.
============
On Web Design
Dr. Pournelle,
It was three lines of messaging from
someone who used his thumbs. Very little effort, and motivated by
vandalism, I suppose. I never understood crank phone calls or insults
shouted out car windows, either, but this kind of thing is fairly common for
anyone with a publicized e-mail address. Don't print the next one, or the
terrorists have won!
-d
Nah. Actually the message was in trash and it's
only by chance that I saw it at all, and idle curiosity drove me to wonder
why someone would bother. I never have time simply to devil people about
things.
At some point I probably should do a web
redesign, but if I do, the changes will be nominal. Many have written to
comment favorably on how fast this place loads, and while a few seem to
prefer a white background, many like my "parchment" and some like it a
lot. As to chronological vs. blogological order, I don't intend to change
that. This is a day book. Similarly, I don't intend to change my practice
of only publishing selected mail with comments, and not allowing open
comments from others. I seldom edit mail.
This site takes more of my time and attention
than perhaps shows, but I don't think of too many ways to improve that
with technology. Most of the time is taken reading and writing, and I
can't automate any of that.
Thanks to subscribers I can afford to take the
time for this.
=============
Nasa's Future
From July 2(catching up)
And if the regulations get too bad, the race to space
will move to....Costa Rica, a place which appreciates the gringo dollar and
will not burden it's deliverers with paperwork.
Moreover, it's closer to the equator!
Geoff
-- Please let me know if anything I say offends you. I
may wish to offend you again in the future.
Tux says: "Be regular. Eat cron flakes."
===========
speed traps
Now that the state is broke, I expect the local cops
to re-discover speed traps. Yuk.
I watched the Sunnyvale cops ignore two hispanics in
two different cars run a red right right in front of them. If my wife had
not stopped they would have creamed us. It was near a bunch of bars, they
were probably drunk. A few weeks earlier, I get pulled over, a middle aged
white guy in a minivan, for not signaling a lane change on El Camino. I've
noticed similar pull overs in the past weeks. Seems to me, they are going
for the easy, non-dangerous collars.
Phil Tharp Vreelin Eng. Inc.
As I said above it's a
time honored practice, and heck, I'd rather soak the speeders than pay
more taxes myself... I think I am kidding but not a lot.
At one time I would have said that laws were to
be obeyed, but there are so many laws now that it's pretty well impossible
to obey the all. You have to sort of pick and choose and hope the cops
aren't watching...
And of course the police will always choose to
stop those who aren't likely to give them problems. It was not always like
that. When I was young the local sheriff and his men understood that their
purpose was to keep the peace. But that was in another country.
For a PDF copy of A Step Farther Out:
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