| Thursday,
February 12, 2009 Disturbing news from
England:
Mathematics
This morning I was discussing the history of computing
with my seniors, and I explained what Alan Turing was trying to do with his
Turing Machine--automatically prove theorems like a mathematician would.
"You know how to prove theorems, don't you? They teach that in geometry."
Blank looks. "You have taken geometry, haven't you?"
Answer: "No."
"That's ninth grade math, isn't it?"
Answer: "No."
So I investigated this further with them and
discovered that university-bound students in the UK don't take geometry,
trigonometry, or advanced algebra, let alone calculus. They also don't take
a foreign language, or high school science, or much of anything outside
their two A-level specialities. This lack of education makes it very hard to
discuss applications of programming with them.
-- Harry Erwin, PhD, Program Leader, MSc Information
Systems Security, University of Sunderland.
<http://scat-he-g4.sunderland.ac.uk/~harryerw> Weblog at:
<http://scat-he-g4.sunderland.ac.uk/~harryerw/blog/index.php>
Liberalism is a philosophy of consolation for
Western Civilization as it commits suicide. That didn't change with the
end of the Cold War.
==========
r.e. Keynesianism
"John Maynard Keynes famously said that all
governments would need to do to cure a Depression would be to stuff jars
with money, bury them in old coal mines, fill the mines with garbage from
the nearby towns, and then announce that they'd done that. Free enterprise
would take care of the rest. People would go mine those jars, and spend the
money, and this wouldn't compete with more legitimate and needed activities
like producing cars or weaving cloth or even building roads."
Either Keynes was ignorant of the history of gold and
silver rushes or he was counting on ignorance in his readers. Digging up
buried money was precisely what the old time gold and silver mining rushes
were about. And a powerful mechanism they were to depopulate local
productive industries and also create raging inflation.
The US Government helped by setting up local assay
offices and mints in all major gold and silver areas to coin mined metal
into money. "Money" was literally being dug out of the earth in chunks
without any increase in available goods and services. Available goods and
services grew scarcer due to the diversion of capital and labor to mining
activities.
And large scale social debauchery (alcohol and opium,
gambling, white slavery prostitution, banditry and violence) always
accompanied the general monetary debauchery, just as we see around us today.
Think Tombstone or Deadwood.
Contrary to modern urban legends it is eminently
possible to inflate gold and silver based specie money.
M
===========
"Industry"
http://www.nytimes.com/
2009/02/08/us/08lehigh.html?_r=2&em
"President Obama is scheduled to visit Fort Myers
(Florida) on Tuesday to promote his economic stimulus plan. But residents
here tend to view it as the equivalent of an herbal remedy — it can’t hurt
but it probably won’t heal. Instead, in church groups and offices, people
call for “industry” and repeat one telling question: “What do we want to be
when we grow up?”
These former construction workers get it. See how
educational economic hard times can be? Now they just need a leadership that
both gets it and is competent to lead the way to it. This rules out
virtually all current personnel in both major parties.
I think Obama's $500k executive pay cap for federal
bailout recipients was too generous by half. And I didn't read about any
limits on reimbursable expenses such as traveling first class, staying in
rooms higher than Motel 6 level or eating above the McDonald's drive through
prices. The rules were and are simple. Earn a stable profit without
catastrophic losses requiring taxpayer bailouts and the sky is the limit on
salaries and executive jets.
The NYT has an interesting concurrent piece:
http://www.nytimes.com/
2009/02/08/fashion/08halfmill.html?em
"You Try to Live on 500K in This Town"
Here's the point. Once the Lehigh Acres experience
hits home in Manhattan a lot of things will become clearer and simpler.
M
Having had to travel at government rates, I can
tell you that I felt I was making a contribution; I sure didn't have any
luxuries. If I were in a business that required me to do that often, I
would probably get in another business. At one time I had a million mile
club membership, all at steerage rates, but traveling steerage wasn't then
the undignified cattle truck ride it is today. And Motel 6 doesn't have
high speed Internet connections.
I did stay at what used to be a Travelodge (it's
a Crowne Royal now) and that was more than adequate. And we ate at a local
Vietnamese restaurant, and in the conference center cafeteria, and that
was all right. But if I had to fly steerage very often I would simply not
fly at all. The flight crew tries, but they can't make it pleasant.
But see
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123431293649170767.html about the
Traders, who some say deserve being declared Outlaws and left to private
enterprise; someone would find a way to harvest their usable organs.
=============
Another Dalton Minimum?
Dr. Pournelle --
Jager and Duhau's work suggests we could be in for a
cold snap, starting after 2014. While not as bad as a Maunder Minimum, a
Dalton Minimum would still be unpleasant.
Forecasting the parameters of sunspot cycle 24 and
beyond C. de Jager, S. Duhau in "Journal of Atmospheric and
Solar-Terrestrial Physics", Vol 71 (2009)
Abstract at
http://www.science-direct.com/science/journal/13646826
From the abstract:
Solar variability is controlled by the internal dynamo
which is a non-linear system. We develop a physical–statistical method for
forecasting solar activity that takes into account the non-linear character
of the solar dynamo. ... We find that the system is presently undergoing a
transition from the recent Grand Maximum to another regime. This transition
started in 2000 and it is expected to end around the maximum of cycle 24,
foreseen for 2014, with a maximum sunspot number Rmax=68±17. At that time a
period of lower solar activity will start. That period will be one of
regular oscillations, as occurred between 1730 and 1923. The first of these
oscillations may even turn out to be as strongly negative as around 1810, in
which case a short Grand Minimum similar to the Dalton one might develop.
This moderate-to-low-activity episode is expected to last for at least one
Gleissberg cycle (60–100 years)."
(full article available at
http://www.icecap.us/ under the
Feb. 7, 2009 heading "Another Dalton Minimum Possible")
Pieter
==============
What Things Cost in Ancient Rome.
http://www.constantinethegreatcoins.com/edict/
---- Roland Dobbins
===========
And we PAY these fatheads...
They destroyed Bombay Duck, formaggio marcio; heaven
only knows what else - and now Tocai, one of the finest of all Italian wines
in my opinion.
--- Italy's Final Tocai Wine Harvest
Sunday October 8, 2006
As of March, 2007, Italy's tocai wine can no longer be
called tocai. The European Union has ruled that as of next year tocai (Tokaji)
can only be produced in Hungary. Even though Hungary's wine is a sweet
dessert wine while Italy's is a dry white wine, the powers that be believe
only one EU wine should be called tocai, tokai, or tokaji. ---
From
http://goitaly.about.com/b/2006/10/08/
italys-final-tocai-wine-harvest.htm
I lived and worked in Italy, Milan, for many years
when I was young and bubbly, and it was here I learned about food, cooking
and wines. Tocai was one of my all-time favorites. These last few years in
Maryland I have been wondering why I could no longer find it.
Friulano - now THAT rolls off the lips!
Lawrence - whose lips are (almost) speechless
==============
Bad News
http://www.powerlineblog.com/
archives/2009/02/022801.php
"Under the first view, the prices of a defined set of
"toxic assets" have been driven below their long-run value and in some cases
have become impossible to sell. The solution, many suggest, is for
governments to make a market, buy assets or insure banks against losses.
This was the rationale for the original Tarp and the "super-SIV (special
investment vehicle)" proposed by Henry (Hank) Paulson, the previous Treasury
secretary, in 2007.
Under the second view, a sizeable proportion of
financial institutions are insolvent: their assets are, under plausible
assumptions, worth less than their liabilities. The International Monetary
Fund argues that potential losses on US-originated credit assets alone are
now $2,200bn (€1,700bn, £1,500bn), up from $1,400bn just last October. This
is almost identical to the latest estimates from Goldman Sachs. In recent
comments to the Financial Times, Nouriel Roubini of RGE Monitor and the
Stern School of New York University estimates peak losses on US-generated
assets at $3,600bn. ...
Personally, I have little doubt that the second view
is correct and, as the world economy deteriorates, will become ever more so.
... The new plan seems to make sense if and only if the principal problem is
illiquidity."
If you don't properly identify the problem, your
solution will not help. So, where is our effort to study the situation and
deterimine the real problem, so if we recover, we aren't going to do it
again later? Surely this much money is worth a week of planning, especially
since it appears little of it will be spent in the next year anyway.
G
===========
Re: Vote Without Reading?
You write: "How any Senator can vote for something
that's as potentially revolutionary as this may be without understanding
what he is voting for is way beyond me. That is the height of
irresponsibility, and I mean that word quite literally."
Why would it be surprsing? These are the people who
voted incandescent light bulbs out of existence without realizing it.
Congress has, over the years, ceded more and more of
its power to the Executive Branch. It's the Executive Branch bureaucracy
that runs the country now; they're the FDA, the FAA, the FCC, FBI, DHS, DOT,
DOD. All Congress does anymore is, basically, issue position statements;
everything else about the laws is left to the bureaucracy to interpret and
enforce as it sees fit.
-- Mike T. Powers
==
Jerry, you wrote: ``We have long gone past the point
at which every Senator and Congressperson needs to be aware of the details
of every piece of legislation. That's to some extent what Committees are
for. ''
I work for a legislature, and I understand the need
for committees to hash out the fine details of bills. I understand that
staffers summarize many bills for their legislators, so that the legislators
can make an informed decision on matters of secondary importance to their
constituents. Given all that, I would say that if a body politic has reached
the point that elected representatives vote on bills for which they have not
read even a summary, representative democracy has become a transparent
fiction. I wonder how long we will maintain that fiction?
I think that the problem is not that our country has
become too complicated, but that our government has undertaken too much.
And, of course, most of the folks we elect to office already are or soon
become irresponsible elitists, more interested in advancing their own
interests than their country's. The lack of character in our elected
representatives probably explains the governmental overreach.
Despair is a sin, but I'm not sure I can think of a
better feasible alternative.
Nels
=============
Reading List for Fully Civilized Adults
You recently wrote: I am not making light of your
request. There are certain books that everyone needs to have read before
they become fully civilized adults, and our universities are no longer
addressing that. Some of them are well known. Others, like Parkinson's
Evolution of Political Thought and Pratt's Battles that Changed History are
a bit obscure and not likely to be on any random egghead list.
My comment: How many of these books do you expect to
be read by the same group who have no use for algebra? It appears to me that
you have established quite a barrier to entry into the group of fully
civilized adults.
-- Mike
Actually, most of the books I recommend are
accessible to at least 60% of the population. I do point out that The
Federalist Papers, now considered too difficult for undergraduate
Political Science 101, were originally published as letters to the editors
of newspapers. I suspect that most of those who read Madison did not do
algebra; I'm not certain that Madison could, although Jefferson almost
certainly did know algebra and geometry.
And perhaps I should have said "Those who aspire
to positions of leadership among fully civilized adults" and perhaps I
should have placed more emphasis on being well rounded. Still: I don't
recommend books that are way over the heads of those who vote. I don't
insist that everyone read Macaulay's five volumes although those who do
will profit from the month or two that may take. But I do point out that
Pratt's Battles That Changed History was a popular book and sold quite
well in its time, and Barzun's Teacher in America is accesible to any high
school student.
I don't mean to further intellectual arrogance
and elitism. I do say that those who can become familiar with the jewels
of Western Civilization will be better off for having studied them -- and
that the Republic would be a great deal better off if we had more letters
to the editors of our papers written by Publius.
=============
Equal protection of the laws (?)
"The story does tempt one to the old sentence of
Outlawry: "You are no longer under the protection of the laws. Whatever is
done to you is no crime, and no one may be charged with any crime for doing
you harm, taking your property, or damaging your goods, nor may you seek
recompense in the courts." Free Enterprise and human perversity would see to
the rest. No bounty necessary."
Dear Dr. Pournelle:
Perhaps I am misunderstanding your point here (I
certainly hope so!), but...are you actually advocating declaring people to
be outlaws simply because they are nasty and vile? So much for the
Constitution, I guess: that whole business about equal protection, trial by
jury, no person to be deprived without due process...boink! Out the window,
because we are offended by people who have raised conspicuous consumption to
a high art!
Now, perhaps you are merely idly speculating, or
paraphrasing the ideas of others. But you certainly don't seem offended by
them or fearful of their consequences. So I don't think I'm wrong in
attributing those sentiments to you: though, of course, I hope I am.
Leaving aside the question of "Who decides?", in which
I would have thought you, of all people, would take some interest (I can
think of plenty of offensive people *I*'d like to outlaw!), surely a man of
your great historical learning can see that that way lies anarchy,
warlordism, dictatorship?
There was a time when you feared proscription and saw
it as a harbinger of the end of days. Now, apparently, you have sold out to
the most vulgar sort of populism: kill the aristos! Put their heads on pikes
and parade them!
I seem to recall a series of such incidents in the
French and the Russian Revolutions. I'm sure there have been plenty of
others before, between, and since. For a man who repudiates Jacobinism, you
seem very quick to embrace it when your own sensibilities are offended.
Very respectfully, David G.D. Hecht
Come now. First, note that I said "the story does
tempt one" which is hardly serious advocacy; and second, note that it is a
sentence; meaning that there has to have been some kind of trial and
conviction. Actually, outlawry was originally a sentence imposed on
fugitives from justice, who had been ordered to pay weregild or some other
fine for a crime against the community, and those who were accused of
crimes but fled the jurisdiction or simply vanished; and there were other
conditions.
I think your leg came off in my hand. Apologies.
I probably ought not try to do this at night after sending in a column.
============
Bad News (12 Feb mail)
http://www.powerlineblog.com/
archives/2009/02/022801.php
"Under the first view, the prices of a defined set of
"toxic assets" have been driven below their long-run value and in some cases
have become impossible to sell.”
I don’t understand. I would love to buy something with
a price below its long-run value. Warren Buffet has grown rich(er) with that
concept. Please, would someone please start a fund that buys toxic assets
for prices less than their values; I would love to invest in that fund.
Bernie Madoff: the invitation does not apply to you.
Hugh
===========
Pelosi's mouse
As a Californian how do you feel about Pelosi's mouse
getting 30 Mil in the stimulus package? Of course if he's endangered he may
need the stimulus. (ouch) I was gratified to hear Pelosi state that she had
nothing to do with it.
Q
First I heard of it! But then there's a lot in
that bill that no one has ever heard of. There is no single elected
official who has read all of it, and there are many elected officials who
have read none of The Largest Appropriation Bill in the History of the
World.
============
Problems & Solutions
"If you don't properly identify the problem, your
solution will not help. So, where is our effort to study the situation and
deterimine the real problem, so if we recover, we aren't going to do it
again later? Surely this much money is worth a week of planning, especially
since it appears little of it will be spent in the next year anyway."
The Communist Party of the Soviet Union and the Soviet
State struggled for many decades with a chronic agricultural crisis. At
various times this problem and possible solutions for it were more widely
discussed in the Soviet mass media than the real estate crisis is in our
media today.
The answer to us in the West was always obvious: allow
private farming and private food markets. And this answer was actually known
to the nomenklatura of the Soviet Union. At least following Stalin's time
they were well aware of the great disparity between production from
state-owned lands and the tiny private private plots allowed to the
collective farm peasants. They consciously suppressed discussion of this.
Anyone publicly proposing this solution was fired, professionally ruined,
ridiculed by the mass media, shunned by the community and even committed to
mental institutions and jailed.
Today food is plentiful in Russia. And the monolithic
Communist Party and Soviet state are no more. The Communist nomenklatura
understood far more than the agricultural problem and solution. They also
understood the true basis of their own political power. Politicians who
accumulate great power always do. They therefore banned discussion of
solutions that identified their policies as the source of the problem and
their removal from power as the effective solution.
Surely nothing like that is going on here and now
though? We're far too socially advanced for that, aren't we?
M
Well -- yes.
===============
Damned Statistics and the Recession
Apparently immigrants are taking jobs from UK
citizens. <http://tinyurl.com/au4jd8
>
The academic experience of emigration. <http://tinyurl.com/brldsg>
Deliberate inflation of the UK money supply planned. <http://tinyurl.com/datx9n
>
-- Harry Erwin, PhD, Program Leader, MSc Information
Systems Security, University of Sunderland.
<http://scat-he-g4.sunderland.ac.uk/~harryerw> Weblog at:
<http://scat-he-g4.sunderland.ac.uk/~harryerw/blog/index.php>
===========
Subject: Enough already!
Dear Jerry:
The electronic medical records system will be modeled
on the one already in use at the VA hospitals. As a patient there, I can
assure you that it works very well, saves a lot of confusion, and money and
there are privacy protections in place. Your old pal, Newt Gingrich, was the
first prominent politician to urge this system be emulated nationwide.
Enough with the fear mongering.
Likewise, lets clarify that in order to stimulate the
economy money has to be spent. Tax cuts are simply another way to spend by
not collecting money due the government. Characterizing a stimulus bill as a
spending bill, as if that were a bad thing, is to fall prey to a failed
ideology. The President is a very plain spoken man who doesn't hesitate to
point out such things. The Republican rhetoric has sunk below useful debate
to embarrassing posturing. Obama's theory is that we should do something,
even if it might be wrong, in preference to watching the entire country go
to Hell so we can enjoy the wreckage and don sackcloth and ashes for our
sins.
Sincerely,
Francis Hamit
I know that Newt initiated this: I was his
advisor at the time. That does not mean that concern about nationalizing
health care is fear mongering. The demand for a free good is infinite, and
there will be rationing no matter what you like; and reading the essays of
those who seem to be in charge of this changeover does not reassure me.
Data compatibility is not the danger. National
health care is the concern. And since you have no more idea of just what
is in the Stimulus Bill than I do, you are operating from a position of
trusting not only the good intentions but the competence of people in your
party. I can hope you are correct but national health care does not seem
to work well in most places that it has been tried.
As to Do Something Just In Case It Might Work,
again I refer you to the New Deal where much of this was tried, and
abandoned by some of its architects. And again I point out that you know
no more about what is in that Stimuls Bill than I do, and both of us know
about as much as any of those who are voting for it.
If asking what the hell we are getting into is
Republican Rhetoric, then I think we need more of it.
===========
Kindle two audio function
Dear Jerry:
Amazon.com is trying for an end-run around copyright
similar to what Google tried with their massive library copying project.
Audio rights are sold separately and are derivative regardless of the
quality of the rendition. Like Google , they are working on the theory that
it is easier to seek forgiveness than permission or that the cost of a
lawsuit in Federal Court (the only place where a copyright action can be
brought) is an effective barrier. This is why the statutory penalties are in
the law. One might not spend $45 to register a short piece such as a
magazine article, but a book of any size has to be deposited with the
Library of Congress anyway, so one might as well do the registration at the
same time and put it under the law. Registration is public notice and
defacto ownership of all rights including audio. $150,000 is enough cause to
bring a suit.
Sincerely,
Francis Hamit
But text to speech readers have been around for
years. Mrs. Heinlein was using one in her last years because the system I
helped set up for her that let her have huge letters on the screen was not
good enough in her last years (fortunately she had a number of retired
Navy people in her support group in Jacksonville). I will be having a
discussion of this among my advisors, and the whole thing will be a big
past of a Chaos Manor Reviews mailbag probably next week.
==========
England and free speech. Its fall continues...
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,491370,00.html
<"An anti-Islam Dutch politician vows to fly to Great Britain on Thursday
despite a government ban on his entering the country, and he's daring the
"weak and cowardly" British government to arrest him when he gets there.
"I'll see what happens at the border," Geert Wilders told Radio
Netherlands on Wednesday. "Let them put me in handcuffs."
The right-wing lawmaker was invited by a member of Parliament to show his
anti-Islam movie "Fitna," which calls the Koran a "fascist" book and accuses
Islam of being a violent religion. He was told by the British Embassy in a
letter Tuesday that he could not set foot in the country.>
And so it goes...
Bas
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