| Friday,
August 1, 2008 We have mail on several
topics. I'll try to group it properly.
The Ballad of Roger Young on YouTube
Hello Dr. Pournelle,
You are doubtless tiring of this, but I found that the
West Point Glee Club version is also on YouTube. The value added is some
interesting era photos in addition to the music. (And no Real involved!)
http://jp.youtube.com/watch?v=1MEJM0cboDg
Cheers,
Clyde Wisham
****
"A man can't be too careful in the choice of his
enemies." -- Oscar Wilde
==
RealPlayer alternative --
Dr. Pournelle:
I, too, found RealPlayer an obnoxious application that tried to snarf up
the playing and presentation of everything from mp3 and *.wav files to
JPEGS. Here is a small app alternative that is well-behaved and only
does what you want.
http://www.free-codecs.com/download/Real_Alternative.htm
-- Pete Nofel
==
Dr Pournelle
I found this Windows Media (wma) format
<http://www.west-point.org/users/usma1981
/38405/west_point/songs/RodgerYoung1959.wma> (677KB)
(Glee Club, 1956-58, soloist: William Webb '57)
delivers the "Ballad of Rodger Young" in wma format (as advertised).
More links, a short bio, the CMoH citation, and photos
(he resembles Cpl Walter "Radar" O'Riley of M*A*S*H) at
http://www.medalofhonor.com/RodgerYoung.htm.
Live long and prosper
h lynn keith
==
Regarding your Real Plug-in comment in the Tuesday,
July 29.2008 post.
You've probably already been e-mailed on this but
there are open source alternatives to the Real Player program/plug-in.
For windows you can get 'Real Alternative' at:
[
http://codecguide.com/about_real.htm ] it's smaller, doesn't
phone home about you, has no ads and does not take over your computer. By
default it only takes over the Real Player formats and nothing else so you
can ignore the installation screens.
For Linux there's the 'Helix Player' utility at:
[
https://player.helixcommunity.org ].
- Brad
==========
Corn Ethanol Belt Report
Dear Jerry,
A Mennonite friend of mine (he grew up Amish) just
returned from his annual traveling summer vacation to the Corn Belt Midwest
in Iowa, Illinois and Indiana. Folks' reactions up there can be summarized
as, "There's an economic crisis?! When did this start? Why didn't we hear
about it? Are you sure? Things have never been better!"
This particular Crisis is striking with the precision
of a laser guided missile. It's striking urban and suburban America. Some of
the largest wealth transfer in history is already flowing internally to
other parts of America. It's going to those parts long derided as Flyover
Country. I suspect both Coasts are now going to pay dearly for indulging in
two generations of sneering arrogance.
Coastal Elitists should be aware their prestige and
empathy levels in Flyover Country are at least as sub-prime as the mortgage
backed securities they previously issued.
Best Wishes,
Mark
==========
Precognition
Mr. Pournelle,
Yesterday I saw a cable TV show on mental abilities.
The person was trying to figure out how a good fighter pilot was better than
a poor fighter pilot, even when both had the same level of training (40% of
kills are done by 4% of the pilots). He had a brainstorm and thought, "Is it
possible that the good pilots can see a short distance into the future?"
(Kind of like the movie NEXT, but only for a few seconds).
How to test for this?
His test process was as follows: He had a random slide
show of both emotional pictures (babies, angry dogs, etc.) and non-emotional
pictures (random patterns, a smooth lake shore, etc.) generated by a
computer. The person would view the pictures when connected to a lie
detector. He then plotted the responses (skin conduction, etc.) for the
emotional pictures and for the non-emotional pictures on a graph versus
time, starting the two curves from a point about 30 seconds or so prior to
the time the given picture flashed on the screen. He did this again and
again for each subject.
As expected, the two averaged curves over many
pictures were very different, with the emotional pictures causing many
stronger changes to the test point results than the bland pictures. The
thing he found very strange was, for at least some subjects, while the two
curves lay essentially right on top of each other at the start and for
several seconds into the test prior to the time of the picture being
displayed, THE DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE CURVES STARTED A FEW SECONDS **PRIOR
TO** THE PICTURE OF THE GIVEN TYPE BEING SHOWN!! The subjects already knew
that the coming picture was bland or emotional in a way that was impossible
unless they could see into the future a few seconds.
It is possible that the picture mix wasn't random
enough and some pattern existed, but this can be eliminated by never
repeating a picture and randomly loading the picture file using some random
number generator and then scrambling them again and again using different
methods each time, so that even the tester cannot possibly guess what is
coming up each time. The tester in this case was not even in the room while
the tests were going on to keep any bias from him from getting into the
results.
If this works with "ace" fighter pilots, too, then no
wonder they usually beat anyone else!!
Now, this is a rather simple test and could be done by
virtually anybody, so I would hope that somebody else would either verify or
refute his results soon.
Nathan Okun
I have seen some indications of this in other
places. It's the mechanism that escapes me: what sends information into the
past? Or is our integrative machinery good enough that it appears to be
precognition? It can't be common or Las Vegas could not exist. At
craps the house edge is 1.4% on the pass line (and zero edge-- i.e. you get
true odds -- when you back up that bet!). It would not take much in
the way of real precog to wipe that edge out and bankrupt the house.
I have heard elaborate theories based on quantum
effects that are supposed to explain precognition, but like spacedrives one
wants to see data rather than theory.
I'd be very interested in further efforts in this.
Once again, if I had to bet I'd bet against confirmation of any
precognition, but I would not bet the farm.
==========
Consumer Electronics:
I was going through your linked "reports" page and
came to the 1999 blooming of the corpse plant. The photos were interesting,
but what struck me as more fascinating was your warning:
"Fair warning: some of these images are at Super High
Quality which is 2 megapixels, and will take some time to download."
The photos loaded instantly for me, but then I thought
back to 1999 when I had a "fast" 144kbps ISDN connection and lots of people
used dialup.
A far cry from the 8-16Mbps I take for granted on my
cable modem.
And then there's the comment of "Super High Quality"
being 2 megapixels.
Digital cameras have come a long way since then, too!
Rob
==========
Autism Thoughts
I enjoyed your comments on Autism, and just wanted to
share a small example with you. Autistic children are not usually the wild
kids rampaging in a school classroom, though they are prone to temper
explosions.
Our Meghan was diagnosed with "Pervasive Developmental
Disorder" in the 80's, and we strong resisted the tag of "Autism" at that
time, based upon the advise of our neurologist. He changed his opinion in
the late 90's, when the definition of Autism changed.
It is very accurate to say that Meghan's perceptual
abilities are both acute and "wired wrong" in her brain. While everyone
perceives a stimulus somewhat differently, in general, we can all agree that
THIS
color is at least a shade of RED, or THAT color is a
shade of blue.
Or THIS sound is delightful and THAT sound is not.
Meghan's perceptions are way off. Touch, sound, taste,
sight - all of them are different for her. Very different. That leads to her
occasionally letting loose with a frustration powered temper tantrum, even
today when she is 23. The result for Meghan, and for a lot of if not most
Autistic children, is that they withdraw out of misunderstanding and fear.
They simply cannot fathom that the racket the other kinds are making is fun
- in Meghans case some noise sources like that are the equivalent of
fingernails on a chalkboard. Imagine
*that* sound in your ears for hours at a time!
Anyway, I certainly don' t have the answers, but in
the case of this Savage person- he is clueless to the real and difficult to
deal with issues surrounding most truly autistic kiddos. He may be partially
right about parents needing to control them, but I rather doubt he cares if
he is right or wrong, so long as more people listen to his show. Just
another example of your Voodo Science I think- and this time from an
entertainer. <sarcasm> A *very* reliable source of information. </sarcasm>
One day I hope we can really find out how to heal
minds like Meghan,
as well as minds and souls damaged by other things.
The church used to be good at dealing with that- when I was a kid I would go
talk to my pastor about subjects I didn't understand (when I wanted to talk
to someone besides my parents that is.) Today, a very great number of
pastors seem more interested in who wins the Presidential Election than in
the well being of their flocks. Except of course, the few really bad ones
that just want to fleece that flock of theirs. ;)
Anyways, you made a lot of good points, and tempered
them with honest reason. I sure wish you could teach some of the rabid
professionals out there how to do that.
-Paul
==
ADHD
Jerry,
I’m a master’s level children’s therapist and have
been working with kids for more than 30 years. Over that period, I’ve spent
considerable time arguing with psychiatrists about ADHD and Bi-Polar
disorder. Reading Ed Hume’s comments in the mail was
quite refreshing. Finally, a psychiatrist that seems to get it.
Thanks for that.
Randy Powell
Port Orchard, WA
==
Dear Doctor Pournelle,
In high school I was undoubtedly a candidate for ADHD
diagnosis/medication if such "treatment" had been fashionable in the late
1960s. I was a straight "C" average student, though measured as being in the
top per-centile of IQ; one of those "C" students because they get either an
"A" when the class/teacher interests them, or a "D"
if they do not.
The solution I discovered was simple.
During my Junior year I took Chemistry. I flunked out
of the class in the first semester. I just could not seem to get the hang of
the math applications or many of the basic concepts. Each daily hour in
Chemistry class I would get right to the edge of comprehending something
vital, and then it was time to go to the next class.
Since I needed the credits, I signed up for Chemistry
in summer session at the end of my Junior year. I was scared, but determined
to solve the mystery of Chem-1. The class ran for four hours daily, from 8AM
to 12PM, four days a week. The teacher turned out to be from another high
school in the district, a fellow who was a scoutmaster from another troop
near my own (with whom I had once gone on a long cross-country hike). He
knew a LOT about how to handle boys. Mr. Manley undoubtedly had forgotten
more chemistry than most teachers ever knew. As an aside: I suspect such a
teacher now would be viewed as "unprofessional", spending too much time
walking about the countryside instead of taking more education courses to
move up the ladder. Alas, Babylon!
I quickly discovered that with four hours in a block
to devote to chemistry, I got it. It was just that it took me about an hour
to get my brain "into Chemistry gear", and having that, I was able to "get
it".
I went from flunking out miserably a quarter of the
way into the subject to earning a solid "B".for the entire class. It was
that simple. Give yourself the time you need, even if the system insists you
only get an hour.
So my senior year I took Physics, and when the teacher
(the great John Wozny, somewhat of a legend in some circles) offered to open
the lab up at lunch for those who wanted more time with him, I was right
there.
Brilliant and tough, his weekly Friday exams were
legendary. Graded on a curve, typically you could get a passing grade if you
managed to correctly solve three or four of the ten problems in the forty
minutes allowed. Since we used slide rules in those pre-electronic
calculator days, you can imagine how quickly we worked.
Mr. Wozny would scowl mightily when the half a dozen
or so "jocks" in the class would occasionally leave class early for
athletics practice.
He would turn to the remaining members of the class,
as the door closed behind the departing jocks., and say "You are the Physics
Team, I am the Physics Coach, and what you learn while they are jumping
around will still be valuable when they are old and fat like me!"
The day we took our final exam, a group of students
asked Mr. Wozny if they could come to the front of the class. With a
befuddled smile, he nodded, and they sheepishly walked up. One of them (one
of the two girls in the class, both of whom were brilliant AND beautiful,
-sigh-!) held a cardboard box. She opened it, and handed "The Woz" (which we
NEVER called him to his face... Somehow, now, I wish we had; it was a term
of respectful, even. awed, endearment) a black tee shirt. On the back in
large white letters was "Physics Coach". The Woz wore that shirt the rest of
the day, even during lunch. I never saw a happier teacher than he was when
that shirt was handed to him.
Then he scowled, and said "But I will still grade you
all on the same curve!"
Time, discipline and patience. Those are the
essentials. In our version of "Brave New World" we have lost this basic
wisdom and seek in our hubris to solve everything with elixirs. Nemesis
awaits, its' talons as long and sharp as ever.
Petronius
===============
Switzerland and Nukes
Hi Jerry,
Pieter writes:
"Iran's current Shahab-3 missiles can't carry too
large of a warhead (750-1000 kg) too far (1250-1600 km). However, there
were those plans for a "compact" nuke found on the computers of the arms
dealers in Switzerland."
Living in Switzerland, I would be most interested in
knowing the source of this.
I am certainly unaware of any such report, or who
might have been searching computers in Switzerland...
Switzerland makes good money selling weapons (though
nothing compared to the USA). But military contracts require governmental
approval and the government is pretty strict. Switzerland sells trainer
airplanes, tanks and armored vehicles, and many types of munitions. While I
am not in any way involved with the government or the military industry, I
find it extraordinarily unlikely that any sort of nuclear weapons technology
is on the menu for Iran. This sounds like pure scare-mongering...
Cheers,
Brad
I don't know any more on this. At one time the
United States CIA had agents in Zurich who would pay $2 million cash for a
nuclear warhead or the fissionables to make one. That was long ago, and I
understand the price went higher; I do not know if this activity continues
today. The offer was cash, no questions asked, no identity required, we
won't follow you; take your money and go in peace. As I understand it this
was pretty effective. One could get more money elsewhere but there was a
great probability that if you sold elsewhere you would never walk alone.
But I never heard of the Swiss selling nukes.
==========
Climate Models
Haven’t you been saying this for years?
As noted by Pat Frank, Demetris Koutsoyiannis’ new
paper has been published, evaluating 18 years of climate model predictions
of temperature and precipitation at 8 locales distributed worldwide.
Demetris notified me of this today as well.
The paper is open access and can be downloaded here:
www.atypon-link.com/IAHS/doi/abs/10.1623/hysj.53.4.671
Here’s the citation: D. KOUTSOYIANNIS, A. EFSTRATIADIS,
N. MAMASSIS & A. CHRISTOFIDES “On the credibility of climate predictions”
Hydrological Sciences–Journal–des Sciences Hydrologiques, 53 (2008).
Abstract “Geographically distributed predictions of
future climate, obtained through climate models, are widely used in
hydrology and many other disciplines, typically without assessing their
reliability. Here we compare the output of various models to temperature and
precipitation observations from eight stations with long (over 100 years)
records from around the globe. The results show that models perform poorly,
even at a climatic (30-year) scale. Thus local model projections cannot be
credible, whereas a common argument that models can perform better at larger
spatial scales is unsupported.”
Chuck Ruthroff
Disconnecting from change does not preserve the past.
It kills the future.
==========
From another conference:
In discussing education, I said:
Jaime Escalante taught AP calculus in high school: he
did it by drills and rote, mostly, and strict discipline. My wife spent some
time discussing his methods with him. His students were not those you would
have predicted would take state prizes in math.
Jerry
And received this comment:
Jerry,
Jim I have a friend with some experience in
Cuba. He believes that with Cuban methods (drills, rote, and strict
discipline) America's inner city schools could be highly functional. He also
assigns a zero probability to this happening.
Peter S
=========
Solar Energy, All Night Long
MIT professor Daniel G. Nocera has long been jealous
of plants. He desperately wanted to do what they do--split water into
hydrogen and oxygen and use the products to do work. That, he figures, is
the only way we humans can solve our energy problems; enough energy pours
down from the sun in one hour to power the planet's energy needs for a year.
...
Nocera's discovery--a cheap and easy way to store
energy that he thinks will be used to change solar power into a mainstream
energy source--will be published in the journal Science on Friday. "This is
the nirvana of what we've been talking about for years," said Nocera, the
Henry Dreyfus Professor of Energy at MIT. "Solar power has always been a
limited, far-off solution. Now we can seriously think about solar power as
unlimited--and soon."
http://www.forbes.com/energy/2008/07/30/
nocera-solar-power-biz-energy-cz_jf_0731solar.html
Bill Shields
Sure hope it works!
But then -- Something will. That is, if we try.
==========
Nuclear plans in Switzerland
Just to clarify my comments about the possibility of
an EMP attack on the U.S.:
"Blueprint for nuclear warhead found on smugglers'
computers"
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/jun/16/nuclear.pakistan
Blueprints for a sophisticated and compact nuclear
warhead have been found in the computers of the world's most notorious
nuclear-smuggling racket, according to a leading US researcher.
The digital designs, found in heavily encrypted
computer files in Switzerland, are believed to be in the possession of the
US authorities and of the International Atomic Energy Agency, in Vienna, but
investigators fear they could have been extensively copied and sold to
"rogue" states via the nuclear black market.
I never meant to suggest that the Swiss were culpable
in the matter. Switzerland is just where the plans were located. In fact,
the Swiss government has reportedly destroyed the computer files to insure
that they could not fall into the wrong hands. The concern is that the
designs, described as "detailed" and "sophisticated", may have already been
transferred to "rogue" governments.
Pieter
Thanks!
=========
"Begley Cloth" coming of age?
Interesting article popped up on CNN website this
afternoon.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/science/07/01/solar.textiles/index.html
Timothy
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