Chaos Manor View, Thursday, May 28, 2015

Story conference with Barnes and Niven yesterday. Satisfactory but mentally exhausted so the rest of the day after lunch was consumed by locusts.

Back in the 50’s when there was no federal Department of Education, and there was spirited debate over the wisdom of Federal Aid to Education, it was generally thought that education was best left to the States; Federal Aid would come at the creeping but inevitable cost of Federal Control, and would be a disaster. It was argued that for the cost of a few B-52’s we could have a fine education for all. Our schools were generally good, but some were backward, rural, or inner city; Federal Aid would fix that and improve the other schools as well. And then came Sputnik and the idea that Russian schools were much better than US schools, and Russians learned Science and Engineering, and look at this backward school in the Ozarks, and we must have education to win the Cold War, and…

The alarmists won the argument of course. We got Federal Aid and we got it good and hard. With it came credentialism and strong teachers unions. Reagan tried to abolish the Department of Education and much of Federal Aid, but he couldn’t; since Reagan no one has tried very hard.

And then came various national education policies. No child left behind – better described as no child gets ahead – may have been the worst. There was also the idiocy of “every American kid should get a world class university prep education” which doesn’t even make sense. Most industrial workers couldn’t make use of a university education, and vast numbers couldn’t pass the final exams. But if you have a right to get one, the universities will, at great cost (and profit) see that it happens. You can major in some field or another, and if you can’t do maths we’ll find you a major that doesn’t need them.

So down went higher education while turning out more graduates; but meanwhile the high schools, and then the grade schools, were suffering.

I don’t suppose I need say a lot more on the quality of education. Look at the California Sixth Grade Reader of 1915 http://www.amazon.com/California-Sixth-Grade-Reader-Pournelle-ebook/dp/B00LZ7PB7E or see Bill whittle http://www.truthrevolt.org/news/bill-whittle-struggle-stupidity for more. Somehow what we expected 6^th Graders to study before WW II is now too difficult for high school.

But the real argument against Federal Aid To Education was the warning about indoctrination: at the time it was mostly Liberals who feared indoctrination by right wingers. Bit different now, but the arguments still hold: it’s a direct violation of the intentions of the Framers and a complete intrusion on state’s sovereignty.

Schoolroom Climate Change Indoctrination

In one assignment, students measure the size of their family’s carbon footprint and suggest ways to shrink it.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/schoolroom-climate-change-indoctrination-1432767611

By

Paul H. Tice

May 27, 2015 7:00 p.m. ET

1165 COMMENTS

While many American parents are angry about the Common Core educational standards and related student assessments in math and English, less attention is being paid to the federally driven green Common Core that is now being rolled out across the country. Under the guise of the first new K-12 science curriculum to be introduced in 15 years, the real goal seems to be to expose students to politically correct climate-change orthodoxy during their formative learning years.

The Next Generation of Science Standards were released in April 2013. Thirteen states and the District of Columbia have adopted them, including my state of New Jersey, which signed on in July 2014 and plans to phase in the new curriculum beginning with the 2016-2017 school year. The standards were designed to provide students with an internationally benchmarked science education.

While publicly billed as the result of a state-led process, the new science standards rely on a framework developed by the Washington, D.C.-based National Research Council. That is the research arm of the National Academy of Sciences that works closely with the federal government on most scientific matters.

There is more but you get the idea. Indoctrination with Al Gore.

And you get to pay for it, and your children will come home ashamed of their Denier parents: even as the evidence pours in showing that we don’t know much about climate even with our multi-million dollar models, and until they can account for clouds, they will never be accurate: no model can take the 1960 initial conditions and “predict” the conditions in 2000.

And without cloud data they can’t, because Nighttime Radiative Cooling http://misfitsarchitecture.com/2013/03/01/its-not-rocket-science-5-night-sky-radiant-cooling/ is governed by clouds.

But that isn’t going to be taught to your kids.

Our school system is so bad that perhaps it won’t be effective in indoctrination; but the next step will be to have the kids report their Denier parents, and then send Child Protective Services to help the kids resist the evil parents who are teaching The Wrong Stuff to their kids.

I know.

It Can’t Happen Here.

How to generate a science scam

Dear Dr. Pournelle, 

This article is by a journalist who did his levelheaded best to scam the scientific community with a bogus study. The ease with which it is done is quite sad and speaks to gatekeeping, at least in scientific journalism.
http://io9.com/i-fooled-millions-into-thinking-chocolate-helps-weight-1707251800

Respectfully,

Brian P.

It is worth reading. And it isn’t just journalism that lets nonsense past. Modern education in actual science in universities is not universally – or even usually – very good. That’s true of many of the “best” universities. But my god how the money rolls in.

Did Market Leninism Win the Cold War?

<http://www.unz.com/article/the-worst-of-all-possible-worlds/>

—————————————

Roland Dobbins

“The Worst of All Possible Worlds

Did Market Leninism Win the Cold War?

Imagine an alternative universe in which the two major Cold War superpowers evolved into the United Soviet Socialist States. The conjoined entity, linked perhaps by a new Bering Straits land bridge, combines the optimal features of capitalism and collectivism. From Siberia to Sioux City, we’d all be living in one giant Sweden.

It sounds like either the paranoid nightmare of a John Bircher or the wildly optimistic dream of Vermont socialist Bernie Sanders.

Back in the 1960s and 1970s, however, this was a rather conventional view, at least among influential thinkers like economist John Kenneth Galbraith who predicted that the United States and the Soviet Union would converge at some point in the future with the market tempered by planning and planning invigorated by the market. Like many an academic notion, it didn’t come to pass. The United States veered off in the direction of Reaganomics. And the Soviet Union eventually collapsed. So much for “convergence theory,” which like EST or cold fusion went the way of most crackpot ideas.

Or did it? Take another look at our world in 2015 and tell me if, somehow we haven’t backed our way through the looking glass into that very alternative universe — with a twist. The planet currently seems to be on the cusp of a decidedly unharmonic convergence.

Consider what’s happening in Russia, where an elected autocrat presides over a free market shaped by a powerful state apparatus. Similarly, China’s mash-up of market Leninism offers a one-from-column-A-and-one-from-Column-B combination platter. Both countries are also rife with crime, corruption, growing inequality, and militarism. Think of them as the un-Swedens.”

CoDominium?

Query for the seminar: are you REAL sure you want to raise the minimum wage?

“I chose crab bisque as a dish because it’s a real challenge for human chef to make well, never mind a machine,” Anderson said.

“If it can cook a bisque, it can do stir-fries and we’re looking forward to teaching it many more recipes in the months to come.”

http://www.scmp.com/tech/innovation/article/1808963/worlds-first-robot-kitchen-cooks-visitors-ces-asia-shanghai

Rod

K wrote:

“ I am not advocating the armed conflict that was the first step toward positive change two hundred years ago; we have tools of communication at our disposal now that did not exist then.”

—–

Those very same tools of communications are an important component of the instrumentality of tyranny. Had the War of Independence been delayed until the advent of the telegraph and the Gatling gun, it would in all likelihood not been successful; the example of the Second American Revolution (also known as the War of Northern Aggression, the War Between the States, or the American Civil War) is pertinent.

Those tools are even more important during long spans of notional ‘peace’.

—————————————

Roland Dobbins <roland.dobbins@mac.com>

“The Kurds at the moment have ambitions that are not in conflict with our interests except at the margins; that is also true of Saudi Arabia, and Israel for that matter.”

Only true of the Kurds.

Greg Cochran

In absolute terms, yes; but the conflicts are resolvable in the case of Saudi Arabia and Israel. What is needed from Arabia is protection of the Sunni minority from the Shia of Baghdad. Baathist Iraq certainly had goals in conflict with the US but the situation in Iraq was much better under Baath than it is under our liberated democracy.

How so?

http://listverse.com/2015/05/25/10-major-natural-disasters-predicted-in-the-near-future/

In one of the potential disasters described, a statement is made that “…a US Geological Survey study done by scientists in Florida that states that the sea level of the East Coast is rising three or four times faster than anywhere else in the world.”

How can that be, since all oceans actually are a single body of water?

Charles Brumbelow

“A 2012 study by emeritus professor John Boon of the Virginia Institute of Marine Science claimed that significant changes in sea level along the East Coast from Key West, Florida, to Newfoundland, Canada, started around 1987. His study shows that the sea level is increasing 0.3 millimeters per year. This study dovetails with a US Geological Survey study done by scientists in Florida that states that the sea level of the East Coast is rising three or four times faster than anywhere else in the world.”

I would presume he finds the Floridian Coastland sinking? Or being lower? It is purportedly explained in http://www.nature.com/news/us-northeast-coast-is-hotspot-for-rising-sea-levels-1.10880

About that small minority of terrorists

Al Jazeera is one of the Islamic world’s largest TV outlets. They performed a survey.

81% of respondents to Al Jazeera poll support the Islamic State http://www.jihadwatch.org/2015/05/81-of-respondents-to-al-jazeera-poll-support-the-islamic-state

When I went to school 81% is not a small minority. I guess the new math has kicked in or something.

As support let’s travel to a typical Egyptian Mosque.

Typical Egyptian mosque sermons identical to “non-Islamic” Islamic State http://www.jihadwatch.org/2015/05/typical-egyptian-mosque-sermons-identical-to-non-islamic-islamic-state

Oops, that didn’t work either. Maybe we just have to live with it. After all they are nice people, aren’t they? Surely they treat us as equals as we treat them, right?

Muslim Judge: ‘Unacceptable for Christian to Testify Against Muslims’

http://pamelageller.com/2015/05/muslim-judge-unacceptable-for-christian-to-testify-against-muslims.html

Oops, that didn’t turn out so well. But gee, they’re still basically nice people, aren’t they? Erm, unless, maybe, you are gay.

VIDEO: Muslim Brutally Beats Gay Couple in NY Restaurant http://pamelageller.com/2015/05/video-muslim-attacks-gay-couple-in-ny-restaurant.html

Hm, this doesn’t look too good. But they’re just gays.

Islamic State forces Yezidi boys to convert to Islam, sends them into battle http://www.jihadwatch.org/2015/05/islamic-state-forces-yezidi-boys-to-convert-to-islam-sends-them-into-battle

Waitaminit that’s not nice of them. Does it get worse? Yes, especially if you are woman.

Pamela Geller, WND: “U.K. Rape Jihadis: ‘This Is OK In Our Culture’”

http://www.jihadwatch.org/2015/05/pamela-geller-wnd-u-k-rape-jihadis-this-is-ok-in-our-culture

Pamela Geller, Breitbart: “The UK’s Rape Jihad: A Survivor’s Tale”

http://www.jihadwatch.org/2015/05/pamela-geller-breitbart-the-uks-rape-jihad-a-survivors-tale

It’s even not very nice for Christian men in moderate secular Egypt.

Grandson of medical pioneer cannot follow same profession for being Christian http://www.jihadwatch.org/2015/05/grandson-of-medical-pioneer-cannot-follow-same-profession-for-being-christian

Oh, nevermind! I overreacted. Obama tells me it’s all due to climate change!

Robert Spencer, PJM: Obama: Climate Change Causes Jihad http://www.jihadwatch.org/2015/05/robert-spencer-pjm-obama-climate-change-causes-jihad

Ya know, just off the top of my head, it’s time we do something about this “stuff” before that “stuff” really hits the fan. And it’s preciously close to the big stuff hitting fan episode.

{o.o}

ISIS is vulnerable now but becoming exponentially less so. Time is not on our side.

: Dogs and human evolution
They say that we domesticated dogs. What if they domesticated us?
Imagine our primitive ancestors. Some were assholes, and were mean to animals. Others were more open-minded, and could bond with other species such as dogs. The latter then would get the advantage of another species with superior olfaction, hearing, night vision, and alertness. Perhaps natural selection could favor the latter? Perhaps it could assist in domesticating other species such as horses (utterly vital for civilization for several thousand years). Perhaps these adaptations could even spill over into our relations with each other?
Perhaps our dogs shaped us? Perhaps we need more of that?

TG

Well we had all that forebrain we had been using to smell with, and now it could evolve other functions.

http://www.jerrypournelle.com/reports/jerryp/Sixthgradesample.html

“This article mentions the “idiotic claims” made by the “national news media” on a “daily basis”. One case in point is the so-called “unprecedented” flooding that put Houston “under water”. And the chant is “climate change, fear, climate change, fear!” But, the article reveals this flooding is not unprecedented and mentions more than eight instances of worse flooding and demonstrates the Houston is not under water. And then we have this:

<.>

On the other issue, the entire climate change situation has become politicized, which I hate. Those on the right, and those on the left hang out in “echo chambers”, listening to those with similar world views refusing to believe anything else could be true.

Everyone knows the climate is changing; it always has, and always will. I do not know of a single “climate denier”. I am still waiting to meet one.

The debate involves the anthropogenic impact, and this is not why I am writing this piece. Let’s just say the Houston flood this week is weather, and not climate, and leave it at that.

</>

https://medium.com/@spann/the-age-of-disinformation-98d55837d7d”“

How sensible.. But, how many “normal” people understand that difference between climate and weather? Maybe about as many that understand the difference between strategy and tactics, RAM and ROM, and so on? Is that why these “idiotic claims” pass for facts?

Perhaps a lack of historical perspective to provide some context is a contributing factor?

The effect of whatever you want to call these cultural tendencies to ignorance of words and their meanings, lack of context, lack of perspective and so on reminds me of Orwell’s 1984, the Newspeak Dictionary, and the work Winston Smith undertook at the Ministry of Truth. Only this takes matters a step further. You don’t need to destroy old newspaper articles and write new articles when no one bothers to read the facts in the first place. You don’t need a newspeak dictionary when few understand the definitions of most words or how the language works.

A timely example: I was in an online chat today and some cantankerous person spewed off some word salad that made no sense, much to the irritation of the other participants. I commented that he might consider using proper English so we could understand what he wanted to say. My sentence used a semi-colon and one of the other participants remarked, “That’s amusing, can you use a semi-colon in proper English?  haha Can you even do that?”

I, politely, explained a semicolon can be used in place of a conjunction to link two independent clauses and he said, “Dude, I don’t know what the **** you’re talking about.”

◊ ◊ ◊ ◊ ◊

Most Respectfully,
Joshua Jordan, KSC
Percussa Resurgo

As Freeman Dyson frequently says, we just don’t know how to model climate. 

The way to bet is that it’s getting warmer, but then things happen.  Tambora caused the year without a summer – worldwide.  Eighteen Hundred and Froze to Death.  But that was not man-made.  Yet don’t forget Carl Sagan’s Nuclear Winter fears. We don’t know enough about clouds to model climate.

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

Chaos Manor View, Monday, May 25, 2015

MEMORIAL DAY

We give our thanks and tribute to those who have defended us. May the survivors find peace and tranquility; may the dead rest in peace; and God bless those who remain on guard.

We are bringing out, in both electronic and print production, The Strategy of Technology, a 1970 book that was once a text in some of the Service Academies and still is in use at two of the War Colleges. This is not a new edition: it remains mostly the same as the hard to read copy available as an eBook on line or at exorbitant prices as used printed books. There are also Xerox copies kicking around.

The principles of the strategy of technology remain pretty constant, but all the examples in the book are of course Cold War or World War II, with a few “Small War” lessons and a bit on Korea.

It does not take account of Martin Van Crevold’s Transformation of War http://www.amazon.com/The-Transformation-War-Reinterpretation-Clausewitz/dp/0029331552 and it should acknowledge that important work; war has changed radically since 1970, and while Van Crevold mistakenly uses the politically motivated American retreat from Viet Nam as an example of the new era, subsequent events have made it clear that while Clausewitz remains important he is incomplete.

War remains, but its nature has changed. To Clausewitz war was the continuation of diplomacy by other means. As Van Crevold shows, there are new forms combat that Clausewitz would not recognize that can be as decisive as the old forms of war – ask the inhabitants of the Crimea, or eastern Ukraine. There are also combatants who are not nations: al Qaeda being a famous example. Yet States and Armies remain and can be decisive.

Anyway I am re-reading Van Crevold and preparing a “Postword” or final Chapter to show that the principles of the strategy of technology apply in this new kind of war – and that I am aware of the need for a book on the subject, and provide some thwarting materials for it. The subject is important. The subtitle of SOT was “Winning the Decisive War”, and that title is still relevant. At the same time, the age old principles of war as understood by both Sun Tzu and Machiavelli remain relevant.

It remains true that There Will Be War.

Alex is here and it is time for a walk. More later

Decoration Day

Jerry,

On this day I am reminded of O’Hara’s “Bivouac of the Day” posted around Arlington National Cemetery

Theodore O’Hara’s poem, “Bivouac of the Dead,”<http://www.cem.va.gov/history/bivouac.asp>

The poem itself: <http://www.cem.va.gov/cem/history/BODpoem.asp>

And a Decoration Day postcard (at the first link): <http://www.cem.va.gov/cem/images/decday1.jpg>

Regards, Charles Adams, Bellevue, NE

Subj: Rethink cozying up to the Kurds?

http://www.aei.org/publication/have-the-kurds-lied-to-congress/

Sounds to me like Yet Another Instance of a well-known pattern, to wit:

whenever someone utters some generality about “the X”, for some X, one’s antennae should twitch about the implication that what is said applies

*uniformly* over all X, with no within-X variation worth mentioning.

Rod Montgomery==monty@starfief.com

Why yes, of course; they are not our friends except from necessity. It was Saladin the Kurd who defeated the Latin Kingdom of Jerusalem at the Horns of Hattin, and ended the Christian rule in the Holy Land. He also made a peace with Richard Couer de Leon that was beneficial to both sides. Then he went on to unite the Middle East.

The Kurds at the moment have ambitions that are not in conflict with our interests except at the margins; that is also true of Saudi Arabia, and Israel for that matter. Can we hope for more? I would rather Northern Iraq were in the hands of the Kurds than the Caliphate.

ISIS and idiotic US Hubris Subject : ISIS and idiotic US Hubris Message : Contact Message below
https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/secret-pentagon-report-reveals-west-saw-isis-as-strategic-asset-b99ad7a29092
http://www.judicialwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Pg.-291-Pgs.-287-293-JW-v-DOD-and-State-14-812-DOD-Release-2015-04-10-final-version11.pdf
So the redacted classified DIA document obtained by Judicial watch via FOIA shows that the US viewed ISIS AS A STRATEGIC ASSET!!!!! And clearly understood that something like ISIS was a collateral risk. This is consistent with the conspiratorial assertions years ago that ISIS was (created? – encouraged? – supported?) for the specific purpose of overthrowing Asad to enable a GCC gas pipeline to Europe without passing through Israel or IRAQ.
Hubris, Greed, and Amorality resulting in death and destruction – who wudda thought?

: john

“The reason it’s controversial is, it violates Newton’s Third Law.”

<http://www.nbcnews.com/science/space/no-warp-drive-here-nasa-downplays-impossible-em-drive-space-n357151>

—————————————

Roland Dobbins

That’s always a problem. Seriously, we must pay attention to “impossible” data if it can be reproduced; but extraordinary claims always require extraordinary evidence. It is increasingly clear that this one doesn’t have that.

Everyone I have talked to on Wall Street seems to agree it’s a pretty godless place. Is this new or has it always been like this?

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/05/seven-years-later-wall-street-hasnt-learned-anything/393623/?utm_source=SFFB

It’s been said many times, in many places, even well before the Great Recession: The culture on Wall Street is terrible. It encourages bad behavior. More recently, there are concerns that the Wall Street that caused the financial crisis is back.

A new report by The University of Notre Dame, commissioned by the law firm Labaton Sucharow, which represents whistleblowers, has some alarming numbers to add to this well-trodden narrative. The report surveyed more than 1,200 people in the financial-services industry—account executives, wealth advisors, financial analysts, investment bankers, operations managers, and portfolio managers—in both the U.S. and the U.K. to look at whether increased regulations, along with calls for a cultural change, have had any demonstrable effects.

Why I am shocked, shocked…

Financial Times Says it All

It’s been a long time since I’ve seen such an apt and succinct observation:

<.>

The Fed is forecasting US growth of 2.5 per cent for the next two years, which is only marginally above the tepid rates achieved since the start of the recovery, which is now about to enter its seventh year. Should unemployment fall to 5 per cent by the end of 2015, wage growth may finally start to pick up, in which case the Fed will probably need to remove the punch bowl. The balance of risk is skewed the other way, however. After years of virtually no income growth, Main Street is unprepared for positive shocks. It is, for instance, striking that that the US consumer has opted to pocket the recent gains from lower [gas] prices rather than boost spending. The same applies to corporate investment, which remains disappointingly weak.

The US economy’s key growth drivers each seem to be waiting for the other to move first. Investors are reluctant to invest and consumers are hesitant to spend. What will it take to stoke their animal spirits?

</>

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4fa54706-008b-11e5-b91e-00144feabdc0.html

What will it take for animus to drive the market? I see

witchdoctors, but these witchdoctors have a point.

◊ ◊ ◊ ◊ ◊

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

It takes someone who believes in American Exceptionalism rather than Social Justice

The speech deconstructed by Viscount Monckton

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/05/21/does-the-leader-of-the-free-world-really-know-so-little-about-climate/

DNA hints at earlier dog evolution 

Jerry

Ha! You and I have been right all these years:

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-32691843

They push it back to 27,000 years. But the baby and wolf (proto-dog) footprints date back 35,000 years.

Ed

I have always believed that dogs were extremely important in human evolution,  And there was a dramatic rise in intelligence about then…

“We’ve disconnected the consequences of war from the American public.”

<http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-warrior-main-20150524-story.html>

—————————————

Roland Dobbins

“Stay together. Pay the soldiers. Take no heed of the rest.” Septimius Severus

Or see Machiavelli 

Cultivating the Wind

Jerry,
I have been away a while, buried by work and family obligations. I should not have been catching up this morning, but sometimes the mind needs a constructive distraction…
While I was catching up, it struck me how much of your blog is concerned with the issue of “sow[ing] the wind.” You warn us all that U.S. culture and culture around the world is changing, but not for the better. Ominous trends are afoot in education, politics, economics, entertainment, and discourse. I see the same ominous changes, so I am inclined to agree with you. However, it troubles me that we sit quite comfortably in our electronic pub, rationally discussing these issues while the world continues to deteriorate apace.
About 250 years ago, the people of the American British colonies sat comfortably in their physical pubs, rationally discussing the issues of their day, when at least one of them realized that discussion was not enough. Pointing out the problems, leveling criticisms, worrying about the prospects for the future were not changing anything. These people, the educated and able of their day, decided to stop simply talking about the problems and decided to start fixing them.
It has struck me that we — you, your direct friends, the people you have reached through your blog — have to inherit the mantle those people of 250 years ago once wore. We are the educated and able of our day. This is our world that needs to be changed for the better. We have the ability to define and to bring about that change. We are at the turn of an exponential curve and simple discussion will not longer suffice.
Can we not use our knowledge and experience to formulate a strategy for cultivating the wind? Can we not find a way to effectively influence cultural change for the better? I am not advocating the armed conflict that was the first step toward positive change two hundred years ago; we have tools of communication at our disposal now that did not exist then.
Cultivate the wind. Let us gather here to define a better future and make the effort to bring that future.

K

Despair is a sin.

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

Chaos Manor View, Thursday, May 21, 2015

Obama Says ‘I Don’t Think We’re Losing’ to ISIS; Militants Ready for Iraqi Counterattack

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/isis-terror/obama-says-i-dont-think-were-losing-isis-n362621

President Barack Obama said in an interview published Thursday that “I don’t think we’re losing” to ISIS, despite its capture of an Iraqi city last week and renewed questions about the state of the Iraqi military.

His interview with The Atlantic was published hours after ISIS claimed to have captured the ancient Syrian city of Palmyra, a victory that one monitoring group said gave ISIS control of half the country.

And U.S. officials told NBC News that In Ramadi, Iraq, the city captured by the militants last weekend, ISIS fighters are digging trenches, building berms and steeling themselves for an Iraqi military push to retake the city.

ISIS is ‘everywhere’ in Syria’s ancient city of Palmyra

http://www.cnn.com/2015/05/21/middleeast/isis-syria-iraq/

The Fall of Palmyra Is a Strategic, Historical, and Human Loss
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/418704/fall-palmyra-strategic-historical-and-human-loss-tom-rogan

It is estimated that the Caliphate controls about a third of Iraq.

I hear what you are saying about ISIS. Sure, a US armored division could take them out. So what?
In WWII the US army and government could both win wars and govern in the aftermath. Today, we can destroy, but our elites are so corrupt that we can no longer govern.
You have complained about our incompetent proconsul, Paul Bremer, in the aftermath of the Iraq war. But we don’t have anyone better at hand!
To paraphrase someone famous, you don’t go into a war with the leadership that you wish you had, but with the leadership that you do have. The days of Eisenhower and FDR and even Nixon are long gone. Our current elites can only create chaos. Sure our army still has the ability to trash ISIS (until outsourcing finally breaks the logistical tail), but so what. We trash ISIS, and then what? We destroy Turkey, and Iran and Saudi Arabia?
Let’s admit it – our country no longer has the ability to both win wars and govern in the aftermath. If a bunch of looney tunes in the deep desert are killing themselves how about we just STAY THE HECK OUT OF THEIR WAY AND LET THEM KILL EACH OTHER. I think Napoleon had something to say on that topic.
As Admiral Palpatine once said, we only have to keep them from escaping.
TG

I understand what you are saying, but fortunately the corruption of leadership does not go as deep as you fear. It remains something to worry about, but it is not the immediate problem.

The immediate objective is not to establish a democratic republic in Iraq, or even to rule Iraq; it is to eradicate the Caliphate. ISIS is a self-proclaimed mortal enemy of the West in general and the United States in particular. If they survive we will have to fight them. They will not choose to fight until they believe they are strong enough to work the Will of Allah.

Since we must fight them to the death, it were well that we do it before they are stronger.

As for Iraq, our war with the Caliphate on their territory will be a disaster, probably as bad or worse (at least for Shia) than rule by the Caliphate; but we have no choice. They are a mortal enemy and they are growing more powerful. The time to put paid to these pretenders is now.

The territory in which we will fight is no longer Iraq, and Baghdad’s writ does not run there. Baghdad cannot claim a right to rule there: they allowed it be taken by mortal enemies of the US. One reason they lost was that the Shia militia came down very hard on the Sunni inhabitants.

One alternative to maintaining the integrity of Iraq was to dismember it into at least three states: Kurdish, Sunni, and Shia. This is now de facto happening and has happened. If US troops liberate territory from the Caliphate, we can give it to whomever we wish. I suggest we give it to the inhabitants, not Baghdad.

As to the Caliphate, it has one obvious vulnerability: it asserts the right to rule, and ruling by strict Islamic Law demonstrates that right: but it must have something to rule. If it has no territory it is merely another militia movement, and its rapid growth in power ceases. War would no longer feed war. At the moment one US division with massive air support could bring this about. By next year it will take far more than that. And by 2016 it will take the full might of the US – which leaves us little to counter other enemies.

Strike now, and decisively; later it will cost more and may not be accomplish the mission.

The Caliphate must be destroyed.

The number of Americans out of work is 93 million; some large number, between 25 and 50% are no longer looking for work; for one reason or another they have given up. They are not starving. Nearly all have phones and TV. But they are not working.

Dr Pournelle,
I had my 1st exposure to the concept of light sails back in the mid-70s when I read The Mote in God’s Eye. As an impatient high school student, with even the Shuttle years away, I always wished the Future would get here SOONER.
…and now (40 yrs later) I find out that I can actually help support a working lightsail. Yesterday, Bill Nye launched a Kickstarter to help fund a lightsail mission in 2016. Details here: https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/theplanetarysociety/lightsail-a-revolutionary-solar-sailing-spacecraft
Apparently a prototype just went up on the Atlas V that also put the X-37 into orbit.
with best regards,
Ron Artigues

Thank you!

Jerry,

Dr. Schramm’s essay was marvelous.  It helps me not drop into despair during Heinlein’s “Crazy Years.”

Thank you for posting the link to the essay.  It was a needed pick me up!

Regards, Charles Adams

> either the factories move to low-wage places like Viet Nam

Jerry,

I have a Pentax DSLR. It’s “only” 6MP, but I am inured to Megapixel Madness, having in my possession 16×20 (chromogenic) prints made from 3MP images I made with my wife’s ancient Olympus P&S. Being far better than “acceptably” sharp (by which I mean sharper than most of the 35mm work I’ve seen), I don’t consider 6MP much of a handicap.

The reason I point this out is to create a timeframe for its manufacture

— it’s far from recent.

The lens I use the most is the Pentax “kit” zoom lens. It’s beautifully made; optically excellent; and according to the small label at the bottom of the lens barrel, it comes from Vietnam.

That just blew me away when I saw it…

If that’s what they could do several years ago, I wonder what they’re building -now-???

(And I wonder too, how long they’ll remain “low wage”?)

In my darker, more cynical moments, I wonder if the day will come, perhaps after China “calls in” the dollar (by whatever mechanism they find expedient), when WE will be the “low wage” venue of choice for Chinese megacorporations.

History might suggest that stranger (and sadder) things have happened.

And Santayana, although ignored in this land, has never been debunked.

Anon

It is always unwise to underestimate future competitors. Note that the original quote there is not mine; I merely printed it.

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

Niven and Barnes are here, and we have a story conference.

Here is an account by my friend and former student Peter Schramm. You should read it.

http://ashbrook.org/publications/onprin-special-schramm/

Back from lunch but you should read Peter’s account of coming to America. It’s worth your time

Humiliation in Iraq:

Losing in Iraq Again

Pentagon spin can’t hide that the U.S. strategy is failing.

 http://www.wsj.com/articles/losing-in-iraq-again-1432162190

No matter how much the Pentagon and White House downplay it, the fall of Ramadi to Islamic State on Sunday shows that President Obama’s strategy is failing. The question now is whether Mr. Obama has the political courage to change or watch Iraq descend into more chaos and perhaps a Sunni-Shiite civil war.

For now U.S. officials prefer the sunny days school of military analysis. “Regrettable but not uncommon in warfare,” says Gen. Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Secretary of State John Kerry added that “I am absolutely confident in the days ahead that [Ramadi’s fall] will be reversed.” This recalls the generals who said in 2006 that Iraq was making progress even as hundreds turned up in the morgues each night.

In reality, the fall of Ramadi is a military humiliation and humanitarian disaster with large political consequences. The city is the provincial capital of Anbar province, Iraq’s Sunni heartland. U.S. forces waged a block-by-block battle to reclaim Ramadi from insurgents during the 2007 surge because it is crucial to the sectarian geography of Iraq. Winning there proved that the U.S. could prevail anywhere, and it provided the psychological momentum to swing the Sunnis to America’s side.

The Wall St. Journal article estimates that it will now require 10,000 men – about a division – to drive ISIS out; but they must go in now.  I would undertake to rid Iraq of the Caliphate with the 101st Airborne and the remaining Warthog close support aircraft; it might need some USAF anti SAM squadrons as well. But that would be true only if we act now.  With the Caliphate war feeds war, and each success makes expansion easier.

What we must not do is what we are doing; treating this as more of same, not a crisis. If we wait until after the election it will require a good bit more than a division with air support.

Global warming

Dear Dr. Pournelle;
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2015/05/19/updated-nasa-data-polar-ice-not-receding-after-all/
Speechless.
Respectfully,
Eric Gilmer

Updated data from NASA satellite instruments reveal the Earth’s polar ice caps have not receded at all since the satellite instruments began measuring the ice caps in 1979. Since the end of 2012, moreover, total polar ice extent has largely remained above the post-1979 average. The updated data contradict one of the most frequently asserted global warming claims – that global warming is causing the polar ice caps to recede.

The multi-billion dollar climate models will not operate properly without accurate data.

LG Display shows off press-on ‘wallpaper’ TV under 1mm thick

http://www.cnet.com/news/lg-displays-latest-oled-tv-sticks-to-the-wall-is-under-1mm-thick

LG shows just how thin the “wallpaper” TV is during an event Tuesday. LG Display

LG Display, the screen-making subsidiary of LG, is dedicated to OLED panels, and it has unveiled an impossibly thin television to prove it.

At a press event in its home country of Korea on Tuesday, LG Display showed off a “wallpaper” proof-of-concept television. The 55-inch OLED (organic light-emitting diode) display weighs 1.9 kilograms and is less than a millimeter thick. Thanks to a magnetic mat that sits behind it on the wall, the TV can be stuck to a wall. To remove the display from the wall, you peel the screen off the mat.

The unveiling was part of a broader announcement by LG Display to showcase its plans for the future. The company said its display strategy will center on OLED technology. According to a press release, the head of LG Display’s OLED business unit, Sang-Deog Yeo, said “OLED represents a groundbreaking technology” not only for the company, but also for the industry.

The comments echo the refrain consumers have been hearing for years as display technology has evolved. The HD craze kicked into high gear years ago with technologies like LCD (liquid crystal display) and plasma, but has since been moving increasingly toward LED technology.

OLED is widely believed to be the next frontier. The technology adds an organic compound layer that allows not only for exceedingly thin screens, but for those displays to be curved. The organic material also emits its own light, eliminating the need for a backlight. That allows for such thin screens and has made OLED a desirable choice not only for televisions, but for a wide range of wearables and other mobile products. LG Display believes OLED could be the de facto display technology in all products in the future.

While some OLED screens have been used by companies like Samsung, LG and Sony, the costs are still quite high to produce the displays. Part of that cost is due to a historically low yield, or production of displays that are actually functional. More waste means higher costs on the screens that do make it through production. Those costs are then passed on to consumers. LG’s 65-inch, 4K OLED TV, for instance, costs $9,000.

On Tuesday, however, LG said that it has made significant headway in developing OLEDs. The company touted its position as the first to mass-produce large-screen OLEDs for televisions and said that its yield has hit 80 percent — a strong showing, but still lower than LCDs.

Those issues with yield, coupled with price, mean televisions like the “wallpaper” display might not make their way to store shelves at a reasonable cost anytime soon.

LG Display said Tuesday it expects to sell 600,000 OLED TV panels this year and 1.5 million next year. The company also cited comments made at the press event by Ching W. Tang, a professor at the University of Rochester in New York and “the father of OLED.” He said OLED displays will not become ubiquitous for another five to 10 years. At that point, Tang said, they could outpace LCDs in total shipments.

I never use ATM’s except in my bank itself, but if you do this is relevant:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/theft-of-debit-card-data-from-atms-soars-1432078912

Criminals are stealing card data from U.S. automated teller machines at the highest rate in two decades, preying on ATMs while merchants crack down on fraud at the checkout counter.

The incidents, in which thieves steal information from debit cards to make counterfeit plastic, are taking place at ATMs that are owned by banks as well as independently owned cash kiosks in shopping centers, convenience stores and restaurants, according to industry executives.

There’s a lot more. If you and tour family don’t use ATM’s it’s of no concern (although the methods described may be interesting).

I am not sure I want my computer to be this concerned with what I do.

Huawei launches ‘internet of things’ operating system    ft

Charles Clover in Beijing

Huawei, the Chinese telecoms group, has launched an operating system designed to work exclusively with internet connected objects — from cars to watches to toothbrushes — which it predicts will number more than 100bn by 2025.

William Xu, Huawei’s global head of strategy and marketing, said the company’s “Lite OS” was part of the group’s strategy to take advantage of the “internet of things”, the smart gadgets designed to connect to each other and share information about their use.

Even the humble electric toothbrush, he said, could one day “record how often and how effectively you brush your teeth, and could tell you when to do it and how to do it better”.

Mr Xu added that Huawei did not plan to join the race to make any of the dizzying array of connected devices being planned by smartphone competitors, such as smart air purifiers or smart cars.

Instead, Huawei is offering device suppliers its open source technology to connect their gadgets to the internet. “We want to provide the connections, not the devices,” he said.

An analyst who covers the company said that Huawei’s strategy was a defensive one: “Building a platform is safer when you don’t know what to build.”

The traditional lament about the lack of basic research can be found at http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/20/business/economy/american-innovation-rests-on-weak-foundation.html?_r=0

It is not obvious to me that the remedy is more money for peer reviewed expensive studies.

Say goodbye to your clunky air conditioner — this kitchen table uses no electricity to regulate the temperature of your apartment

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/zero-energy-furniture-table-cuts-energy-costs-2015-5#ixzz3ajBqgsB3

This might actually be useful if the price were reasonable.

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.