Chaos Manor View, Wednesday, June 03, 2015

Niven and Barnes are going to be here shortly and I am going to attempt to SKYPE Dr. Jack Cohen in England, but something horrible has happened to Skype. On my MacBook Pro It has moved my entire mail contact list into “contacts” and I can’t find anything. I can’t test anything because I can’t find the test call. I have thousands of “Skype Contacts” instead of the dozen or so I have used.

Is there any way of having a small select list of Skype contacts instead of the thousands in my MacBook “Contacts” folder? You cannot delete one from Skype without deleting it from contacts. This all happened when I installed what I thought were routine updates including the Cloud; it imported all the mail contacts into Skype contacts.

I am beginning to hate the Putridos Operating Apple System has installed.

1100: Niven and Barnes are here, but Skype seems not to be working properly; I can Skype Roberta and she can Skype me, but I get no error messages when I try to Skype Jack and that fails; it just stops trying. I suspect he is not on line, but the Skype system has been improved to incomprehensibility.

I have asked Steve and Larry to bring down from upstairs my regular chair, so the wheel chair is now in the back room permanently and maybe we’ll just send it back. So far it works well, my arms are at the right height and it may be that I will learn to type faster and better. We’ll see. It seems better anyway, but I am hitting the wrong keys and making too many errors unless I look at the keyboard and not the screen..

1135: Jack Cohen called us, namely called Steve Barnes on his MacBook Air (which connected just fine to me Wi-Fi network).

We had a very productive conference, arriving at a number of new plotlines on our new “Beowulf Series” novel about the first interstellar colonies. (Legacy of Heorot http://www.amazon.com/The-Legacy-Heorot-Book/dp/1470835541 , Beowulf’s Children http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0765320886/ref=pd_lpo_sbs_dp_ss_3?pf_rd_p=1944687442&pf_rd_s=lpo-top-stripe-1&pf_rd_t=201&pf_rd_i=1470835541&pf_rd_m=ATVPDKIKX0DER&pf_rd_r=0JAPV8WFM2QJRSH73F1R) and the novella that fits between them, The Secret of Blackship Island http://www.amazon.com/Secret-Island-novella-Avalon-Series-ebook/dp/B007MSK4HM . The events taking place in the Blackship Island novella turn out to be extremely important and have a greater effect on the plot than the characters know. Jack Cohen had many suggestions to make the biology richer. I think this will be a big best-seller when we finish next week.

Then we went out to lunch. Just got back. I’ll try to post more, but I must confess I’ve done a good day’s work. It was a very productive conference and lunch.

1700:

Whenever you work with a Mac you need to keep in mind the principle – first formulated by Peter Glaskowsky and published here about a decade ago – that with a Mac everything is either very simple or impossible. The corollary is that if it really has to be doable, there is a very simple way – but if you don’t use Macs so much, you may not find it simple until you cotton to the Mac Way Of Doing Things. Applying that principle solved most of my problems.  Of course I didn’t have them until they Improved things.  But all is more or less well now.

Of course it takes two hands to access an item on a command list pulled down by a right click if you are using a mushpad…

Oh crud. Oh crud oh crud oh crud.

http://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/news/2015/06/01/strong-earthquake-strikes-off-oregon-coast/28295673/

Guys, look up Cascadia Subduction Zone. Then look up megathrust earthquake. Then look up Boxing Day Tsunami. This quake cluster is on the BACK side of the Juan de Fuca plate. The FRONT side of the Juan de Fuca is the subduction zone.
Stephanie Osborn

“The Interstellar Woman of Mystery”
http://www.Stephanie-Osborn.com

Right now we’re looking at a localized swarm of 4.0-6.0 magnitude earthquakes. Notional energy release 0.01 – 15 Kilotons, though there have now been three in the 5-15 kiloton range.

If this pattern continues, there is a good chance of a larger quake (probably on the order of 3x but possibly up to 10x or more in  the cumulative energy release of the smaller localized quakes) elsewhere on the fault zone circling the plate. However, it won’t necessarily follow immediately, but the more small quakes continue the more likely this is a precursor (within 1-3 days) of a larger quake.

If it continues for another day or two, a 7-7.3 quake with epicenter on the coastal leg of the plate between Medford and Portland (probably nearer one of those two ends because of the geometry, I would wager) has some potential before the end of the week.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richter_scale

However, the USGS states that this is not an unusual occurrence and doesn’t usually result in a larger quake.  That said, these quakes are larger than in most earthquake swarms I’ve looked at over the years.

http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2015/06/no_tsunami_risk_after_four_ear.html

I think the bottom line is, watch what happens. A larger quake is certainly not inevitable, and would not necessarily be devastating, but if the swarm continues I believe, with Stephanie, that it becomes more likely.

J

The thing to consider here is that the western edge of the Juan de Fuca “plate” (this area is actually fragments of as many as 3 ancient plates, that have all almost completely subducted) has two different kinds of boundaries. If you look at the western boundary, you’ll see it has a kind of zigzag shape to it. The ones that trend westerly on the north end (the “zigs,” if you will) are what are termed “fracture zones,” and the ones that trend easterly on the north end (the “zags”) are actually spreading zones, with volcanic ridges.

The current quake swarm is occurring in a fracture zone, specifically the Blanco Fracture Zone.

Where this gets more complex, and more troublesome, is that there has been evidence of eruptions along the volcanic ridge to the north, in the Juan de Fuca Ridge, notably the Axial Volcano/Seamount.

If so, this means that there is likely significant pressure building up along the Cascadia Subduction Zone, as the sea floor spreads and shifts.
If you go here: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/ and click the cog, then select “30 days, mag 2.5+ Worldwide,” you will see that in the last month, there have been NO significant quakes (defined as >2.5) on the Cascadia, but some 15 along the various faults of the western Juan de Fuca, including the ones of the article — and several additional this afternoon and evening.

The general view is that Portland and Seattle are largely safe from tsunami, though not from the quake. After the Banda Aceh quake and tsunami, however, I am not entirely sure that is actually 100% true. Yes, Portland is inland, up the Columbia River. And Seattle is protected by the Sound and the islands. But in the Banda Aceh tsunami we saw plainly the ability of the wave to wrap around coastlines, to strike the back sides of islands, to reflect, refract, diffract, and experience both constructive and destructive interference. And if you’ve ever driven the PacNW coast like I have, you’ll know about the signs along the coastal highway every little bit: Entering Tsunami Hazard Zone, Exiting Tsunami Hazard Zone.

I agree with Jim: this is a wait and see period. But a big one on the Cascadia is only a matter of time; there’s plenty of geologic evidence of multiple large tsunamis in the past. All you have to do is go to a coastal region and dig a trench and look at the strata.  And that will continue to be the case, at least until the entire Juan de Fuca (and other fragments) have entirely subducted, which isn’t going to occur for some time yet, geologically speaking. Whereas, geologically speaking, a Cascadia quake may be imminent.

So I don’t plan to go visiting the PacNW anytime soon. And I’m not going to tell my family to do so, either.
Stephanie Osborn

“The Interstellar Woman of Mystery”
http://www.Stephanie-Osborn.com

Google hit with EC antitrust complaint after booting privacy app from Play store (ZD)

An app maker set up by former Googlers has filed an antitrust complaint with the European Commission after being banned from Google Play.

By Liam Tung | June 3, 2015 — 09:25 GMT (02:25 PDT) |

The maker of a privacy app has lodged a complaint with the European Commission, alleging Google abused its dominance of Europe’s mobile market by blocking its app from the Google Play app store.

The complaint was filed by Disconnect, a US app maker founded by ex-Google employees, after its Disconnect Mobile app was pulled from the Google Play app store last year.

Google advised the company last August that the app violated its developer distribution agreement for Google Play, which prohibits apps from interfering with other apps.

Disconnect CEO Casey Oppenheim claimed that Google removed the app because it threatened the search company’s tracking and advertising business and “mistook us for an adblocker” – a category of apps that Google has previously removed from its app store.

Net neutrality

girls on submarine duty

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20150602/us–submarine-video_investigation-33b388bc52.html

Who would have thought this would happen?

—

Phil Tharp

I presume getting pregnant at sea is a court martial offense?

Watt’s Up With That – CAGW isnot settled 

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/03/02/why-cagw-theory-is-not-settled-science/
Where does that leave one in the Great Climate Debate? Well, it damn well should leave you skeptical as all hell.
…
The sad thing about the Great Climate Debate is that so far, there hasn’t really been a debate. The result is presented, but no one ever takes questions from the podium and is capable of defending their answers against a knowledgeable and skeptical questioner.
…
In the end, nobody really knows the global average temperature of the Earth’s surface in 2011 within less than around 1K. If anybody claims to, they are full of shit.
Physics Prof at Duke agrees with you Jerry!
Pete

More convincing is that Freeman Dyson does also.

The Pipes Gladstone link in your latest posting results in your personal email being added to his mailing list.

Harmon Dow

I have since removed the Piped message. I knew Daniel Pipes as a Cold Warier, and had dinner with him in Moscow back in 1889,

“I Give Up: There Is No Terrorism, There Are No Terrorists” – Pipes in NRO, #1409 D. Pipes Mailing List <daniel.pipes@gmail.com>  if you want to see it. I thought today’s theme worth noting.

The link I mean is “click here” below:

Gatestone daily publishes original articles by authoritative authors on such underreported news events as the persecution of Christians, Muslim resistance to Islamism, the multicultural disaster, and the shifting power balance between the United States and its enemies. The Middle East and Islam are its central but not exclusive concerns.

I find the articles interesting and useful. If you wish to receive them, click here.

Sincerely,

Daniel Pipes

Harmon Dow

http://www.zdnet.com/article/yes-apple-tv-will-be-a-homekit-hub/

Yes, Apple TV will be a HomeKit hub (ZD)

It’s official: the Apple TV can be the bridge to your connected home for remote access and information. Best of all, you won’t need to buy new hardware.

By Kevin Tofel for Mobile Platforms | June 3, 2015 — 13:03 GMT (06:03 PDT) |

While many, including me, are expecting new Apple TV hardware to debut at next week’s WorldWide Developer Conference, it won’t just be for entertainment. Apple TV is part of Apple’s HomeKit platform for your connected home.

That’s based on the official support document for Set up and use HomeKit-enabled accessories with your iPhone, iPad, and iPod touch, which was just updated on Tuesday. 9to5 Mac spotted the changes which now include this relevant information:

If you have an Apple TV (3rd generation or later) with software version 7.0 or later, you can control your HomeKit-enabled accessories when you’re away from home using your iOS device.

Sign in with the same Apple ID on your iOS device and Apple TV, and you’ll be able to use Siri commands to remotely control your accessories.

Perhaps the best part of the statement is that even if there’s a new Apple TV model debuting next week, those with older hardware won’t need to purchase it for HomeKit support. The 3rd generation Apple TV launched in March, 2012 and will work with HomeKit devices.

Why have a hub such as Apple TV in the smarthome?

As Apple notes, this would allow for remote access to your HomeKit-compatibile switches, appliances, lights and thermostats; the first of which just launched on Tuesday.

Having a hub could also make it easier for HomeKit devices to work together. When a door sensor triggers, indicating that you’ve come home at night for example, the hub could see this information and turn on your lights.

Based on my own smarthome experiences — I installed an Insteon system back in 2010 — this is the type of scenario where a connected home really adds value; the home intelligently starts to take action based on events.

Apple’s support document doesn’t state that this is how the Apple TV will fit in to a HomeKit environment and it may not even do so at next week’s developer event. I think there’s a good chance it will, however; if not next week, then in the future as more capabilities are added to HomeKit.

OSX

Dear Jerry,

As much as I like my Macs and OSX, address book management and the email app are abysmal at best. Google for contacts, email and search. Also, I always use a Microsoft mouse with my Macs and usually a Microsoft keyboard.

Anyway, hang in there. We need your sage thoughts.

Best regards,

Bob

I like Macs for much but they do tend to do things for you that might better be left undone; as Peter Glaskowsky reminds me, often the Mac is not to blame.

He says “You are probably familiar with the basic concept that blaming the wrong party for any problem will pretty much prevent you from solving the problem.” Which is certainly true.

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

Chaos Manor View, Tuesday, June 02, 2015

I have an appointment with the podiatrist in a few minutes, and tomorrow Niven and Barnes and I will Skype with Dr. Jack Cohen about or new interstellar colony novel. (Sequel to the best-selling Legacy of Heorot http://www.amazon.com/The-Legacy-Heorot-Book/dp/1470835541.) Which means this will have to be short

Back from me Kaiser visit, looking forward to Skype with Dr. Jack tomorrow.  My Kindle was dead at Kaiser, and when I came home and charged it, it was still dead. Fussed for about an hour with no success, went on line and Amazon basically told me to do what I had already done, to wit hold the power button down a long time and then try to start. Nope. Dead. Got on line with Raj at Amazon HELP (find contact us and choose chat – at least I did since I don’t hear well on the phone. Raj told me to hold the power button down for a long time. I’d already done that but I did it again.  Told him it was still dead.  He sent for help and I got Rahib, who told me to hold the power button down for a long time.  Did that and told him.

He decided the Kindle was dead, and outside the one year warranty – but he could offer me a discount on a new one.  One of the offers was foe a larger newer model at some discount. Also had larger memory. It will come Friday with a box prepaid to ship the old one back.

So my old Kindle Fire lasted about 2 years. Worked just fine, died suddenly – was working perfectly and then just wouldn’t turn on.  The button seemed sluggish so after I did all the other attempts I sprayed in zero-residue contact cleaner. Seemed the button was looser but that may have been me, but it still wouldn’t turn on. And I was horrified at the thought of not having a Kindle. Well, it won’t be more than a couple of days.

Went by the UPS Store box and was horrified to learn that I hadn’t paid the bill or visited the place in a while. I’ve paid and I am recording some subscriptions that lay there far too long: apologies. While there I practiced putting the walker in the car, and when we got home I got it out again and came in by myself.  Triumph.  Next thing is to drive my own car.

Tomorrow I Skype and conference.  I have much mail asking for advice on what the heck is going on in the country and I’m trying to work on that, but the situation is complex.  The trigger happy crowd uses proof by repeated assassination as their debate tactic; say anything disturbing to them and they scream and leap.  Rational debate becomes impossible, which is why I no longer appear in many places I used to visit; just to many scream and leap young people who learned it from their teachers.  It’s depressing.

And the crime rate goes up as “Broken window” policing is abandoned by cops who just want to retire;  places that respect police get policed, while Baltimore murder rates, generally of blacks killed by blacks, soars. It was all predicted, but it’s depressing all the same.

Isis and Iraq 

Dear Dr. Pournelle, 
There are a couple of articles on the subject I believe you will find of interest. 
The first is an article on the role of western intelligence — especially, Turkey — in fostering ISIS
https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/secret-pentagon-report-reveals-west-saw-isis-as-strategic-asset-b99ad7a29092
The second is a discussion of the failures of the Iraqi army
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/05/31/key-rebels-ready-to-quit-u-s-fight-vs-isis.html
So, from these things I draw a few conclusions:
1) No one in Iraq is willing to fight for the central government; that is how 150 fighters can route 5000 men armed and supplied by the US. The Peshmerga will fight for Kurdistan, the Shiites will fight for their neighborhoods, the Sunnis will fight for themselves. They’re all fighting each other, but no one’s interested in the central government. 
2) Our own ability to pick and choose winners in these struggles is extremely limited; many of the “moderates” we pick turn out to be extremists, and the real moderates are badly handicapped by US policies.  
Unfortunately, we can’t simply leave this mess alone; leaving them alone won’t stop them from, say, hijacking airplanes and flying in the buildings. That’s the problem with peace — the other side has to be willing to let you surrender and leave the field. That can’t happen. Like it or not, Saudi Arabia et al are part of the world economy, all that oil makes that part of the world important, and Israel is still there just waiting to eat a hydrogen bomb from the first non-Jewish people able to develop one and crazy enough to use it. 
So we can’t simply walk away from this.  
Nor do we, as a country, have the will to send in the troops and occupy Iraq and Syria long-term.  It’s what the Romans would have done, but we won’t.
So what’s left? The only thing I can think of is hope from some Bonapartish military dictator who wants to rule the whole mess , and allow him to conquer the territory, imposing his rule on the restive minorities by brute force.  Saddam II, in other words.  And then HE will be a security threat as well. 
Another alternative: Instead of trying to construct a healthy Iraq, deliberately destabilize the situation further, so that the entire region tears itself apart. If they’re busy killing each other they won’t have time to plot terrorist actions against Israel or the US.   The downside of that is , eventually, all civil wars end, often with the most extreme and virulent group triumphant.  
I’m leaning towards a Saddam II, if we can find one.  Seems a pity we killed the last one.
Creating a western democracy in Iraq, a la West Germany or Japan, would have been ideal. However, for roughly the same time we occupied Japan and Germany, we failed utterly to recreate those conditions. Why?  Do we have the will to try again?
Somehow I doubt it.
So in the absence of full-scale invasion and occupation, we are reduced to a hunt for proxies who won’t do what we want but will be marginally less bad than the alternatives.
What do you think?
Respectfully,

Brian P.

I tried to warn them before Bush I invaded. And we have neither the will nor the means to govern Iraq; never did. We could have created a puppet regime, but we could not use the US Army to govern it; governing by Marines might have worked, but we didn’t try it. Nor did we learn, to Kaddafi’s sorrow.

As to what to do now, give as much ISIS territory as possible to the Kurds so we have at least one friend there – and stop involvement in territorial affairs of Middle East,  Have to go

Jerry

“Thought vectors” as the Door Into Summer:

http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/206521-thought-vectors-could-revolutionize-artificial-intelligence

Ed

‘Thought vectors’ could revolutionize artificial intelligence

• By Aaron Krumins on May 27, 2015 at 8:39 am

Despite all the recent hullabaloo concerning artificial intelligence, in part fueled by dire predictions made by the likes of Stephen Hawking and Elon Musk, there have been few breakthroughs in the field to warrant such fanfare. The artificial neural networks that have caused so much controversy are a product of the 1950s and 60s, and remain relatively unchanged since then. The strides forward made in areas like speech recognition owe as much to improved datasets (think big data) and faster hardware than to actual changes in AI methodology. The thornier problems, like teaching computers to do natural language processing and leaps of logic remain nearly as  intractable now as they were a decade ago.

This may all be about to change. Last week, the British high priest of artificial intelligence Professor Geoffrey Hinton, who was snapped up by Google two years back during its massive acquisition of AI experts, revealed that his employer may have found a means of breaking the AI deadlock that has persisted in areas like natural language processing.

The hope comes in the form of a concept called “thought vectors.”  If you have never heard of a thought vector, you’re in good company.  The concept is both new and controversial. The underlying idea is that by ascribing every word a set of numbers (or vector), a computer can be trained to understand the actual meaning of these words.

The rest of the article is worth summoning to red, but it isn’t as enlightening as it might be. Neither is http://www.quora.com/What-are-thought-vectors but it makes the attempt. I would guess that “thought vectors” might be “lists” in LISP, lists of word and concepts that a word brings to mind, but that is not much like a vector in mathematics. What would be the “curl” of a thought vector?

I ask out of ignorance; there has been so much use of mathematical concepts in the Voodoo Sciences that I am preternaturally suspicious that this is more of same, wanting to sound scientific; but of course I am most probably wrong. Each word carries with it a whole host of concepts which could conveniently be placed in a list. I would have thought a matrix would be more likely. The trick would be to find an algorithm for placing the concept: higher or lower, closer or farther away? I know that in my novel Starswarm (audio http://www.amazon.com/Starswarm-Jerry-Pournelle/dp/1441785086 )(Kindle http://www.amazon.com/Starswarm-Jerry-Pournelle-ebook/dp/B006O1XF6U for some strange reason put in with children’s books) I had the AL program tell her ward that she was governed by a “table” of preferences she was not allowed to change; I thought of having her say matrix which in my concept of AI would be more appropriate, but Gwen is talking to an 11 year old boy who would not yet understand matrices; but as I explain in The Voodoo Sciences (http://www.jerrypournelle.com/science/voodoo.html) novelists only have to be plausible; I didn’t really have much of a theory of AI technology in the sense that I had done much work on it.

I can cheer thought vectors on, but from the little I have seen of them, it is mostly hope, not science.

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

Chaos Manor View, Monday, June 01, 2015

The Nebula Awards are in Chicago at the end of this week – not last week as I mistakenly said – so I had breakfast with Larry Niven Sunday, and he won’t get his Grand Master award for a couple of days. And I am typing worse than ever.

NSA spying

I fully expect a comment on your blog about Rand Paul’s efforts on this matter.

B-

This is one of several emails I have on this subject. The question is complex, and complicated by actions we have taken in the last two decades. It’s made more complicated because while I am recovering from the stroke, my typing is still very slow and I have many corrections to make in each sentence. I think that will improve when I get an actual office chair in here rather than this wheel chair which is the wrong height. Or I think so. I will do an essay on liberty and security, but I fear it may take a few days.

The Patriot Act needs some revisions, and the effect of all this (http://time.com/3902801/rand-paul-nsa-phone-patriot-act/ ) will be more on the Republican nomination than long term on NSA. Just what records do we keep, and should the government keep them? Phone records have long been kept by the phone companies. It is all part of the liberty vs. security question in the new technological age.

Ian Bremmer says America is no longer ‘indispensable’, and that’s bad news for Britain – Telegraph

Jerry:

This interview and the book might interest you.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/11640302/Exclusive-interview-Ian-Bremmer-says-America-is-no-longer-indispensible-and-thats-bad-news-for-Britain.html

I present this to you in context of our ongoing debate over destroying ISIS.

My emerging, militant neo-isolationism is in part motivated by a recognition of the new realities that Mr. Bremmer articulates far better than I can. I think your lingering anger at Bush and his neo-con advisers blinds you to the profound incompetency, perhaps intentional, of the Obama administration and how severe the damage has been.

The fact that Bush made some blunders during the invasion of Iraq is indisputable. However; given what we now know about the corruption in the Iraq oil for food program and the ongoing surrender to Iran’s nuclear ambitions to appease Russia, China and our European “allies,” there is no plausible scenario that would not have resulted in: Saddam or a Baathist successor remaining in power, the sanctions being lifted, and Iraq reconstituting it’s nuclear weapons program. Bush corrected his mistakes by allying the US with Sunni moderates and implementing the surge. When Bush left office, Iraq was on a path of stable evolution towards some semblance of a secular democracy provided that the US was willing to maintain a stabilizing long term military presence just as we did in Europe after WW-2.

Obama betrayed the Sunnis as well as the Kurds by refusing to negotiate a status of forces agreement that would have kept Iraq stable. Obama then betrayed Mubarak who had been a US ally for three decades by inciting the Arab Spring uprising. General Sissi has restored a semblance of sanity to Egypt and has allied with Israel, but he will never trust the US again. Obama also betrayed Daffy Gadaffy had surrendered his WMD to Bush and Condi Rice by supporting pro to-ISIS rebels against him. The video of Gadaffy being sodomized with a bayonet will ensure that no dictator will ever trust the US to negotiate a departure from power or surrender their WMD. Assad might make a deal with Israel, but he will never do so with America.

My point here is that Obama has inflicted so much damage to US power and credibility that even if a competent campaign could be waged against ISIS (not possible while the poverty pimp from Chicago remains in the oval office), the result will be only a short term gain. Given Obama’s fecklessness, the Kurds would be no more likely to trust the US or support US policy than ISIS. With ISIS defeated, most of Iraq will inevitably become a province of the emerging, nuclear armed, Persian empire.

I understand that if ISIS is permitted to exist, ISIS is likely to wage a nuclear 9-11 against the US. However; even if ISIS is destroyed, one or more of the other emerging nuclear powers will launch a nuclear 9-11. While a nuclear 9-11 would be traumatic, it would be survivable. Continued US interventionism with someone as imbecilic as Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush or Lindsey Graham as President will not be survivable. We need to retreat, now!

James Crawford=

And we have this comment on an earlier post::

Caliphate

In response to Mr. Crawford, please direct him to the map of the Umayyid Caliphate: 

http://islamiccoins.ancients.info/umayyads/umayyadhistory.htm

ISIS has stated as much that they wish to expand beyond these previous conquests.  

s/f

Couv

David Couvillon
Colonel, U.S. Marine Corps Reserve, Retired.; 
Former Governor of Wasit Province, Iraq; 
Righter of Wrongs; Wrong most of the time; 
Distinguished Expert, TV remote control; 
Chef de Hot Dog Excellance;  Avoider of Yard Work

Can we avoid involvement in the territorial disputes of the Near East, and how do we restore the reputation of the United States? Mr. Crawford is correct: after the Libya disaster, it has become clear that giving up your nuclear weapons and knuckling under to the US will not save you. Idi Amin Dada managed to live in exile with the help of Khadafy, then Saudi Arabia; but that was before the destruction of Libya.

I do not lightly advocate another US involvement in Iraq, and soon the question will be moot: given enough time, the destruction of the Caliphate would require a war effort that the people of the US would never support.

A sitting US Senator proposes criminalizing dissent on ‘climate change’.

<http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-fossil-fuel-industrys-campaign-to-mislead-the-american-people/2015/05/29/04a2c448-0574-11e5-8bda-c7b4e9a8f7ac_story.html>

—————————————

Roland Dobbins

Any discussion of liberty and freedom must take account of this: the temptation to win debates by silencing the opponent is near irresistible when you are a True Believer. The noblest of sentiments may be refuted if their bearer is beaten to death with a rubber truncheon, said Goering; and there are those who believe strongly that the Global Warming debate is more important than the Bill of Rights and rational debate.

There are many other topics which are so offensive to influential groups that they simply cannot be discussed: to bring up the topic in Injustice and must be suppressed.

You may find these worth looking at.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/story-tom-ligon?trk=hp-feed-article-title

http://www.tomligon.com/Writing/Sparkof1812.pdf

http://www.wsj.com/articles/notable-quotable-1431124660

John DeChancie sends this

My new Castle Perilous novel is out–THE PIRATES OF PERILOUS. It’s the ninth of the series, but it reads like the first, with a bit of backstory.

The Pirates of Perilous (Castle Perilous Series) (Volume 9)

The Pirates of Perilous (Castle Perilous Series) (Volume 9) The Pirates of Perilous (Castle Perilous Series) (Volume 9) [John DeChancie] on Amazon.com. *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. The long-awaited 9th book in the beloved CASTLE PERILOUS fantasy series. Castle Perilous is a dangerous place to live. But some of its Guests are dange…
View on www.amazon.com	Preview by Yahoo

There are fans waiting for this in paper. The Kindle version will be out later in the year.

jd

From a physicist friend; a list of sources on climate technology uncertainty.

Subject: Several articles of technical interest

https://www.google.com/#q=error+analysis+climate+modeling

https://www.google.com/#q=Uncertainty+analysis+in+climate

https://www.google.com/#q=uncertainty+analysis+in+climate+change+assessments

See particularly

http://www.stat.washington.edu/peter/statclim/fyfeetal.pdf

Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years

http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/assets/osgc/OSGC-000-000-019-903.pdf

Uncertainty analysis in climate change assessments

(which appears to be the manuscript of the article shown at the end of the above pdf) and includes the following “box”:

BOX 1
Recommendations to improve uncertainty quantification
· Replace qualitative assessments of uncertainty with quantitative ones
· Reduce uncertainties in trend estimates for climate observations and
projections through use of modern statistical methods for spatio-temporal data
· Increase the accuracy with which the climate is monitored by combining
various sources of information using hierarchical statistical models
· Reduce uncertainties in climate change projections by applying experimental
design to make more efficient use of computational resources
· Quantify changes in the likelihood of extreme weather events in a manner
more useful to decision makers by using methods based on the statistical
theory of extreme values
· Include at least one author with expertise in uncertainty analysis on all
chapters of IPCC and U.S. national assessments

with Dr. Curry’s commentary

http://judithcurry.com/2013/08/30/inadequate-uncertainty-analysis-in-climate-change-assessments/

and the absurd (and contradictory of the above) contention

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/02/150202114636.htm

Global warming slowdown: No systematic errors in climate models, comprehensive statistical analysis reveals

(abstract only; did not attack paywall when abstract so obviously nonsensical)

Plus this fundamental statistical paper

http://www.climateaccess.org/sites/default/files/Katz_Techniques%20for%20Estimating%20Uncertainty.pdf

I am trying to find fundamental papers on numerical solution which address the synergistic effects between data errors and computational errors, but those for some reason appear to be difficult to find.

Here are more technical papers . 

I do not claim that these are particularly readable.  I have done advanced studies in statistical theory, but I haven’t done this sort of work in decades. 

From the Washington Post

Microsoft’s all-new Windows 10 debuts on July 29 (WP)

By Hayley Tsukayama June 1 at 10:51 AM

Microsoft announced Monday that Windows 10 will be available for sale for July 29. Most people — especially Microsoft diehards — won’t have to buy a copy next month, however. The company’s offering free upgrades to most devices currently running Windows 7, Windows 8.1 and Windows Phone 8.1.

Qualifying Microsoft customers can register to get their free July upgrade right now; instructions are on Microsoft’s Web site.

Users will be upgraded to the corresponding version of Windows that they already have. For example, if you have Windows 7 Home Basic or Home Premium, you’ll be upgraded to Windows 10 Home. If you have Windows 7 Professional or Ultimate, you’ll be upgraded to Windows 10 Pro.

So what do you get from the new system? For one, you get Microsoft’s Cortana voice assistant, which is able to schedule your appointments, send your messages and will be able to interact with your Windows, Android or iOS phone. The company has also included features that will make it easier to pass information between a PC and a Windows Phone.

Microsoft also ditched its long-time, much-hated browser, Internet Explorer in the new system in favor of a browser called “Microsoft Edge.” The browser is faster from stem-to-stern, and also includes an annotation feature that lets you type or write on Web pages if you want to keep notes.

The company has also updated its music, video,  photos, mail, calendar and contact apps. It’s also added an Xbox app, which will let a user’s PC and Xbox game console communicate more closely; gamers will be able to stream games from their Xbox One to PCs in their homes. The upgrade also comes with new versions of OneNote and Outlook; upgraded versions of Word, Excel and PowerPoint will be sold separately.

This will be a major launch for  Microsoft, which is looking to shed its image as a plodding giant in favor a friendlier, more nimble company that plays nice with gadgets and programs made by competitors such as Apple, Samsung and Google. It’s also focusing more on offering services rather than products, so Windows 10 will be constantly updated like mobile operating systems, or Apple’s OS X, rather the familiar release model of putting a finished product on a CD and meddling with it very little until the next major update.

That change may have enabled Microsoft to accelerate its timeline — new Windows updates have tended to come in the fall, as of late — but also means that some features won’t be a part of the initial Windows 10 release. For example, as Ars Technica reported, features such as extension support for the new Edge browser won’t be coming until a later update.

If you’re interested in upgrading your own computer, you can do so from your own Windows 7 or Windows 8.1 computer by clicking on the small Windows icon on the lower right-hand side of your toolbar, which takes you to the “Get Windows 10” app. (The app should show up automatically on qualifying machines to which you have administrative privileges.) The same app should give you confirmation that your reservation went through.

You can cancel your upgrade at any time before the system launches, and you will also be able  to get the upgrade even if you don’t reserve a copy ahead of time — but  Microsoft says this is “easiest way” to get Windows 10.

It’s sure got to be better than Windows 8

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

Chaos Manor View, Friday, May 29, 2015

Larry Niven is off to Chicago for the Nebula ceremonies, and will receive his well deserved Grand Master award. Congratulations. And last night at LASFS another of my collaborators, John DeChancie, announced publication of the ninth book in his Castle Perilous series.  If you aren’t familiar with it, it’s action/adventure comedy fantasy, and his latest is the ninth volume. http://www.amazon.com/John-Dechancie/e/B000APFJXI  If you aren’t familiar with it, start with the first, Castle Perilous. His other series, starting with Star Rigger, is straight action.adventure SF, I liked it.

We’re working on a novel, straight science fiction, about a near future time when we have a foothold in the asteroids. The Bureaucrats run Earth and tolerate the asteroid miners. The protagonist is Lisabetta, a teenage girl largely raised by an Artificial Intelligence on an asteroid prospecting ship after her mother dies. When her father is killed by “salvagers” she falls into the care of Earth Child Welfare Services, as the bureaucracy wrangles over who owns her ship. We’re about 40,000 words into it; I don’t type very fast any longer. so John is doing most of the work, as Steve Barnes is doing most of the work on the book Niven and I are doing with him.

Jerry:

I read once again your latest commentary about how it is not yet to late to stop ISIS, but you present no cogent reason why the US has a compelling interest to destroy ISIS. ISIS may be brutal, but so was Saddam. Just ask the Kurds and the Shia. While Saddam had been extremely close to acquiring nuclear weapons at the time of the first gulf war and certainly would have acquired nukes if he had remained in power long enough for the sanctions to be lifted (about one year?), there is no credible prospect of ISIS acquiring nukes anytime soon. Since NK already has nukes and Obama is negotiating to legitimize Iran’s nukes, two out of three of the members of Bush’s “axis of evil” will have the capability to wage nuclear terrorism against the US. It is becoming obvious that once Iran demonstrates a nuke, other countries will feel compelled to get nukes too. We will inevitably live in a world where the nuclear club will cease to be exclusive.

James Crawford=

I thought I had made it painfully clear.

At present, the Caliphate is not a major threat to the United States, but that is due to the lack of ability, not intention. As they grow that discrepancy diminishes. ISIS becomes more legitimate as they expand the territory they govern – but only so long as they do so by their interpretation of the Koran; which they believe commands them to make no peace with infidels. They can make truce, but never peace.

Considering the resources they have now, and their rate of growth, at what point does conflict become inevitable? Yes, they are far away, and we are developing some independence from Middle East oil and gas; but we have a political involvement with others in that area of the world; not just Israel, although I know of no serious candidate running on a platform of abandoning our commitment to Israel; there are also Christians in the area, although fewer now than a decade ago.

There was a time when we might have simply cut and run. Middle East for the Middle Easterners, and we wish peace and good will to everyone. That time has passed, partly due to our own actions in that area, just as our choosing the anti-Slavic side in the Balkan crisis changed our relations with Russia.

Since the Iraqi Army won’t fight, while the Iraqi government has a quite a bit of oil money, the logical solution is hiring Western mercenaries.

I figure that 10,000 would get the job done.

Gregory Cochran

I doubt there are enough organized and trained. The US can use a Foreign Legion for long term overseas commitments, bur building that kind of force takes time, and we don’t have it. I would undertake to eliminate the Caliphate with one division now, or two at year’s end (with the Air Support in all cases: all the Warthogs and enough support to build bases and operate them). A year from now would require more.

Mercs could be trained now to keep the situation stable, but they are too late to stabilize it.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-hillary-clinton-paradox-1432857435

How so? On Sea Level Rise Off The Coast Of Florida
Jerry,
One of your contributors was perplexed by the notion that the sea level could rise three or four times faster off the coast of Florida than it is rising in other parts of the world because all of the oceans are connected, presuming that this means sea level rise should be uniform around the world.
While the oceans are all connected, sea level around the world is not uniform. In point of fact, if you could calm the seas of the entire planet at once so that there was not a single wave anywhere in the world and then subtract away the tides, a frozen ocean surface would reveal hills and valleys deviating a full sixty feet from a mean altitude. How?
There are several reasons. First, water does not flow to the lowest spot as we were all told as children. It flows to the highest gravitational potential. Generally, lower spots have higher gravitational potential, so that is where the water goes. But, anomalies in how mass is distributed through the body of the Earth allows water to ‘pile up’ on some places, being attracted to the mass. The Earth’s continents represent such a mass distribution anomaly, so sea level will be generally high there than elsewhere in the oceans. Variations in the density of the Earth’s crust also affect sea level the same way. Valleys on the sea floor cause a surface low in gravity while sea mounts cause a surface high in gravity. Unusually dense pockets of material in the mantel attract more sea water than do low or average density pockets.
Second, water expands when heated, contracts when cooled (until it freezes), so hot water has more volume than cold water. The coast of Florida hosts the Gulf Stream, already one of the hottest currents of water in the world and it is getting warmer.
Third, water in motion tends to pile up due to frictional forces. The Gulf Stream off of Florida is moving at quite a clip and getting faster due to its getting warmer, leading to more piling up.
Fourth, the distribution of water in the oceans is affected by the Earth’s rotation, causing more water to flow towards the equator and less towards the poles. This effect fights a gravitational influence that wants to pull the water towards the poles as the Earth physically bulges out at the equator and is flattened towards its center at the poles, making gravity weaker at the equator and stronger at the poles. If the Earth stopped rotating, the water would leave the equator completely until the Earth’s mass becomes more spherically distributed, which would take millions of years.
Fifth, local affects of long term wind patterns push water away from some areas and pile it up in others. As a child, I grew up on the Chesapeake Bay and could watch the water disappear from the western shore where I lived for a week or more each Fall due to steady twenty mile an hour winds blowing from west to east over the bay. Water that would have been up to twenty feet deep was gone, leaving dry land for hundred of yards off the shore. I am sure the folks on the Eastern Shore were as alarmed by the excess water as we were by its loss. The point is, steady onshore winds contribute to the rise of sea level.
The East coast of the United States happens to have a number of these factors dead against it, so a lot more of any excess water volume is going to end up on the East coast of the United States and not elsewhere in the world. Florida happens to be deeper in the cross-hairs of these factors.

Kevin

Buchanan: Secularists vs. Suicide Bombers.

<http://www.unz.com/pbuchanan/secularists-vs-suicide-bombers/>

—————————————

Roland Dobbins

The coldest case.

<http://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-earliest-known-murder-victim-20150526-story.html>

—————————————

Roland Dobbins

: oh REALLY?

http://toprightnews.com/muslims-say-u-s-military-should-not-be-honored-on-memorial-day/

Stephanie Osborn

“The Interstellar Woman of Mystery”
http://www.Stephanie-Osborn.com

“I Don’t Think We Are Losing To ISIS”

Jerry,

President Obama’s statement to the effect that he does not think we are losing to ISIS despite the fact that ISIS is advancing and we are retreating struck a resonant chord in memory, but I could not at first recall where I had come across such an idiotic, farcical statement.

Then I recalled a line from the satirical 1957 science fiction novel cum terrorist s’ handbook “Wasp” by Eric Frank Russell that I had read as a teenager:

“For months we have been making triumphant retreats before a demoralized enemy who is advancing in utter disorder.”

BRAVO ZULU, Mr. Obama!!!  Once again, life imitates art…

Best,

Rodger Morris

The last official view from the President was that the Caliphate is the junior varsity

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.