Chaos Manor View, Tuesday, July 07, 2015

“Throughout history, poverty is the normal condition of man. Advances which permit this norm to be exceeded—here and there, now and then—are the work of an extremely small minority, frequently despised, often condemned, and almost always opposed by all right-thinking people. Whenever this tiny minority is kept from creating, or (as sometimes happens) is driven out of a society, the people then slip back into abject poverty.

“This is known as ‘bad luck’.”

– Robert A. Heinlein

I am hard at work on the excellent text Steve Barnes has made out of our story conferences and notes, but I continue to experiment with the Surface Pro 3 and the prelease work on Windows 10. Here’s some of the latest installment:

This morning I tried to use the Surface Pro 3 with Build 10162 of the pre-release Windows 10 at the breakfast table with mixed results.

Took Precious, the Surface Pro 3, out of the docking station thus severing the Ethernet question. It had been working fine there although I am still a bit antsy about Networking with Windows 10. Network worked fine now that I have discovered some magic tricks. One is that at least one of my machines expects a user named NetName\jerryp and a password, although I cannot ever remember giving it that name. Also that NetName/jerryp doesn’t work…

Wi-Fi came on automatically and immediately when I removed Precious from the docking station. I then used her as a laptop on the breakfast table and read a couple of the Wall Street Journal articles — easier to read on the laptop, but easier to find what I want to read by reading the printed paper. All this went well. Then removed the keyboard and used her as a tablet.

Things didn’t work so well. First, she was stuck in landscape mode.

Eventually I discovered that there is a setting you get at by swiping from

the left; I already knew that made a bunch of settings visible; it’s redundant to the old Control Panel, which I am pleased to say is still there. One command in the new block is “Rotation Lock” and it’s grayed out if the machine is in the dock — and doesn’t automatically come alive when you remove the machine from the dock, or when you remove the key from the system. I don’t know what turns it live. I did a lot of experiments with One Note, some dreadful, but that’s partly my fault. When I was thoroughly disgusted I swiped from the left, and saw “Rotation Lock” for the first time — when it’s grayed out it is almost invisible to me. It’s easy to see when it’s on, and turning it off fixes that problem. Nice to know it’s there.

But somewhere in there I lost Wi-Fi. My iPhone had Wi-Fi so it wasn’t the Wi-Fi system; it was that it was turned off in Precious, and it would not turn on.

Going to all settings \ Network and Internet \ Wi-Fi revealed that Wi-Fi was off. I turned it on. Still no joy. Did more things and got the troubleshooter dialogue. Told it to troubleshoot the Internet connection.

It did, and told me I didn’t have Wi-Fi, Turn it on? Yes, said I. Then it kept on troubleshooting, said it was fixing the problem, verifying that the problem was fixed, all done, and Lo! there was joy, and all was well.

My loss of memory on how OneNote works may have resulted in some antic that turned off Wi-Fi, although it’s hard to know how. I think not, though.

The good news is that while I write slow with the stylus, the system turned my handwriting into print. Of course even two fingers looking at keyboard is faster than handwriting. Not a lot faster, and of course I’m looking at what I have written and have fewer mistakes to correct. I managed to get some work done, so it wasn’t an entire waste of time.

As I said, mixed results; but progress.

I am editing Steve’s text of Call of Cthulhu (SF not fantasy) and adding stuff, and even new scenes, and doing well. Mostly I work on my main machine but I could do it on the Surface or the ThinkPad; all of the computers talk to each other with Wi-Fi or Ethernet now (when Wi-Fi has not turned itself off!). Anyway, Progress.

Eric adds:

One of the big features, and one that is bound to have a lot of teething issues, of Windows 10 is Continuum. This is intended to answer the primary complaint users had with Windows 8.x, that they were having a touch-oriented UI forced on them for desktop use. This feature can only really be appreciated on dual role systems like the Surface, and so the Surface is the showcase for it. Like a lot of clever automagic features, it can be bewildering and confusing if the user doesn’t understand what is going on.

http://www.pcadvisor.co.uk/how-to/windows/how-use-new-continuum-feature-in-windows-10-3618849/

This doesn’t necessarily relate to the Wi-Fi problems on the Surface but it may relate to the Rotation Lock issue.
Eric Pobirs

So that’s where we are at Chaos Manor

This is very long, but the bottom line is that things are not warming just now, and even some of the True Believers are becoming doubtful. My own position is that we just don’t know. The models don’t understand clouds well, nor do they understand solar output. No one understands them: but they are among the largest forcing factors, and in my judgment prediction is impossible if you don’t know about them.

http://www.climatedepot.com/2015/07/06/nobel-prize-winning-scientist-who-endorsed-obama-now-says-prez-is-ridiculous-dead-wrong-on-global-warming/

Nobel Prize-Winning Scientist Who Endorsed Obama Now Says Prez. is ‘Ridiculous’ & ‘Dead Wrong’ on ‘Global Warming’

Nobel Prize Winning Physicist Dr. Ivar Giaever: ‘Global warming is a non-problem’

‘I say this to Obama: Excuse me, Mr. President, but you’re wrong. Dead wrong.’

‘Global warming really has become a new religion.’

“I am worried very much about the [UN] conference in Paris in November…I think that the people who are alarmist are in a very strong position.’

‘We have to stop wasting huge, I mean huge amounts of money on global warming.’

By: Marc Morano – Climate DepotJuly 6, 2015 8:34 PM

Climate Depot Exclusive

Dr. Ivar Giaever, a Nobel Prize-Winner for physics in 1973, declared his dissent on man-made global warming claims at a Nobel forum on July 1, 2015.

“I would say that basically global warming is a non-problem,” Dr. Giaever announced during his speech titled “Global Warming Revisited.”

Giaever, a former professor at the School of Engineering and School of Science Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, received the 1973 physics Nobel for his work on quantum tunneling. Giaever delivered his remarks at the 65th Nobel Laureate Conference in Lindau, Germany, which drew 65 recipients of the prize. Giaever is also featured in the new documentary “Climate Hustle”, set for release in Fall 2015.

Giaever was one of President Obama’s key scientific supporters in 2008 when he joined over 70 Nobel Science Laureates in endorsing Obama in an October 29, 2008 open letter. Giaever signed his name to the letter which read in part: “The country urgently needs a visionary leader…We are convinced that Senator Barack Obama is such a leader, and we urge you to join us in supporting him.”

But seven years after signing the letter, Giaever now mocks President Obama for warning that “no challenge poses a greater threat to future generations than climate change”. Giaever called it a “ridiculous statement.”

“That is what he said. That is a ridiculous statement,” Giaever explained.

“I say this to Obama: Excuse me, Mr. President, but you’re wrong. Dead wrong,” Giaever said. (Watch Giaever’s full 30-minute July 1 speech here.)

“How can he say that? I think Obama is a clever person, but he gets bad advice. Global warming is all wet,” he added.

“Obama said last year that 2014 is hottest year ever. But it’s not true. It’s not the hottest,” Giaever noted. [Note: Other scientists have reversed themselves on climate change. See: Politically Left Scientist Dissents – Calls President Obama ‘delusional’ on global warming]
The Nobel physicist questioned the basis for rising carbon dioxide fears.

“When you have a theory and the theory does not agree with the experiment then you have to cut out the theory. You were wrong with the theory,” Giaever explained.

Global Warming ‘a new religion’

Giaever said his climate research was eye opening. “I was horrified by what I found” after researching the issue in 2012, he noted.

“Global warming really has become a new religion. Because you cannot discuss it. It’s not proper. It is like the Catholic Church.”

Concern Over ‘Successful’ UN Climate Treaty

“I am worried very much about the [UN] conference in Paris in November. I really worry about that. Because the [2009 UN] conference was in Copenhagen and that almost became a disaster but nothing got decided. But now I think that the people who are alarmist are in a very strong position,” Giaever said.

“The facts are that in the last 100 years we have measured the temperatures it has gone up .8 degrees and everything in the world has gotten better. So how can they say it’s going to get worse when we have the evidence? We live longer, better health, and better everything. But if it goes up another .8 degrees we are going to die I guess,” he noted.

“I would say that the global warming is basically a non-problem. Just leave it alone and it will take care of itself. It is almost very hard for me to understand why almost every government in Europe — except for Polish government — is worried about global warming. It must be politics.”

“So far we have left the world in better shape than when we arrived, and this will continue with one exception — we have to stop wasting huge, I mean huge amounts of money on global warming. We have to do that or that may take us backwards. People think that is sustainable but it is not sustainable.

On Global Temperatures & CO2

Giaever noted that global temperatures have halted for the past 18 plus years. [Editor’s Note: Climate Depot is honored that Giaever used an exclusive Climate Depot graph showing the RSS satellite data of an 18 year plus standstill in temperatures at 8:48 min. into video.]

Giaever accused NASA and federal scientists of “fiddling” with temperatures.

“They can fiddle with the data. That is what NASA does.”

“You cannot believe the people — the alarmists — who say CO2 is a terrible thing. Its not true, its absolutely not true,” Giaever continued while showing a slide asking: ‘Do you believe CO2 is a major climate gas?’

“I think the temperature has been amazingly stable. What is the optimum temperature of the earth? Is that the temperature we have right now? That would be a miracle. No one has told me what the optimal temperature of the earth should be,” he said.

“How can you possibly measure the average temperature for the whole earth and come up with a fraction of a degree. I think the average temperature of earth is equal to the emperor’s new clothes. How can you think it can measure this to a fraction of a degree? It’s ridiculous,” he added.

Silencing Debate

Giaever accused Nature Magazine of “wanting to cash in on the [climate] fad.”

“My friends said I should not make fun of Nature because then they won’t publish my papers,” he explained.

“No one mentions how important CO2 is for plant growth. It’s a wonderful thing. Plants are really starving. They don’t talk about how good it is for agriculture that CO2 is increasing,” he added.

Extreme Weather claims

“The other thing that amazes me is that when you talk about climate change it is always going to be the worst. It’s got to be better someplace for heaven’s sake. It can’t always be to the worse,” he said.

“Then comes the clincher. If climate change does not scare people we can scare people talking about the extreme weather,” Giaever said.

“For the last hundred years, the ocean has risen 20 cm — but for the previous hundred years the ocean also has risen 20 cm and for the last 300 years, the ocean has also risen 20 cm per 100 years. So there is no unusual rise in sea level. And to be sure you understand that I will repeat it. There is no unusual rise in sea level,” Giaever said.

“If anything we have entered period of low hurricanes. These are the facts,” he continued.

“You don’t’ have to even be a scientist to look at these figures and you understand what it says,” he added.

“Same thing is for tornadoes. We are in a low period on in U.S.” (See: Extreme weather failing to follow ‘global warming’ predictions: Hurricanes, Tornadoes, Droughts, Floods, Wildfires, all see no trend or declining trends)

Media Hype

“What people say is not true. I spoke to a journalist with [German newspaper Die Welt yesterday…and I asked how many articles he published that says global warming is a good thing. He said I probably don’t publish them at all. Its always a negative. Always,” Giever said.

Energy Poverty

“They say refugees are trying to cross the Mediterranean. These people are not fleeing global warming, they are fleeing poverty,” he noted.

“If you want to help Africa, help them out of poverty, do not try to build solar cells and windmills,” he added.

“Are you wasting money on solar cells and windmills rather than helping people? These people have been misled. It costs money in the end to that. Windmills cost money.”

“Cheap energy is what made us so rich and now suddenly people don’t want it anymore.”

“People say oil companies are the big bad people. I don’t understand why they are worse than the windmill companies. General Electric makes windmills. They don’t tell you that they are not economical because they make money on it. But nobody protests GE, but they protest Exxon who makes oil,” he noted.

#

Dr. Ivar Giaever resigned as a Fellow from the American Physical Society (APS) on September 13, 2011 in disgust over the group’s promotion of man-made global warming fears.

In addition to Giaever, other prominent scientists have resigned from APS over its stance on man-made global warming. See: Prominent Physicist Hal Lewis Resigns from APS: ‘Climategate was a fraud on a scale I have never seen…Effect on APS position: None. None at all. This is not science’

Other prominent scientists are speaking up skeptically about man-made global warming claims. See: Prominent Scientist Dissents: Renowned glaciologist declares global warming is ‘going to be a big plus’ – Fears ‘Frightening’ Cooling – Warns scientists are ‘prostituting their science’

Giaever has become a vocal dissenter from the alleged “consensus” regarding man-made climate fears. He was featured prominently in the 2009 U.S. Senate Report of (then) Over 700 Dissenting International Scientists from Man-made global warming. Giaever, who is a member of the National Academy of Sciences and won the 1973 Nobel Prize for Physics. (Watch news coveragehere.)

Giaever was also one of more than 100 co-signers in a March 30, 2009 letter to President Obama that was critical of his stance on global warming. See: More than 100 scientists rebuke Obama as ‘simply incorrect’ on global warming: ‘We, the undersigned scientists, maintain that the case for alarm regarding climate change is grossly overstated’

Giaever is featured on page 89 of the 321 page of Climate Depot’s more than 1000 dissenting scientist report (updated from U.S. Senate Report). Dr. Giaever was quoted declaring himself a man-made global warming dissenter. “I am a skeptic…Global warming has become a new religion,” Giaever declared. “I am Norwegian, should I really worry about a little bit of warming? I am unfortunately becoming an old man. We have heard many similar warnings about the acid rain 30 years ago and the ozone hole 10 years ago or deforestation but the humanity is still around,” Giaever explained. “Global warming has become a new religion. We frequently hear about the number of scientists who support it. But the number is not important: only whether they are correct is important. We don’t really know what the actual effect on the global temperature is. There are better ways to spend the money,” he concluded.

Giaever also told the New York Times in 2010 that global warming “can’t be discussed — just like religion…there is NO unusual rise in the ocean level, so what where and what is the big problem?”

Related Links:

Exclusive: Nobel Prize-Winning Physicist Who Endorsed Obama Dissents! Resigns from American Physical Society Over Group’s Promotion of Man-Made Global Warming – Nobel Laureate Dr. Ivar Giaever: ‘The temperature (of the Earth) has been amazingly stable, and both human health and happiness have definitely improved in this ‘warming’ period.’

2012: Nobel Prize Winning Physicist Ivar Giaever: ‘Is climate change pseudoscience?…the answer is: absolutely’ — Derides global warming as a ‘religion’ – ‘He derided the Nobel committees for awarding Al Gore and R.K. Pachauri a peace prize, and called agreement with the evidence of climate change a ‘religion’… the measurement of the global average temperature rise of 0.8 degrees over 150 years remarkably unlikely to be accurate, because of the difficulties with precision for such measurements—and small enough not to matter in any case: “What does it mean that the temperature has gone up 0.8 degrees? Probably nothing.”

When Science IS Fiction: Nobel Physics laureate Ivar Giaever has called global warming (aka. climate change) a ‘new religion’ -When scientists emulate spiritual prophets, they overstep all ethical bounds. In doing so, they forfeit our confidence’

American Physical Society Statement on Climate Change: No Longer ‘Incontrovertible,’ But Still Unacceptable

Skeptic win… American Physical Society removes ‘incontrovertible’ from climate change position

Politically Left Scientist Dissents – Calls President Obama ‘delusional’ on global warming

SPECIAL REPORT: More Than 1000 International Scientists Dissent Over Man-Made Global Warming Claims – Challenge UN IPCC & Gore – Climate Depot Exclusive: 321-page ‘Consensus Buster’ Report

Another Prominent Scientist Dissents! Fmr. NASA Scientist Dr. Les Woodcock ‘Laughs’ at Global Warming – ‘Global warming is nonsense’ Top Prof. Declares

Green Guru James Lovelock on Climate Change: ‘I don’t think anybody really knows what’s happening. They just guess’ – Lovelock Reverses Himself on Global Warming

More Than 1000 International Scientists Dissent Over Man-Made Global Warming Claims – Challenge UN IPCC & Gore

Top Swedish Climate Scientist Says Warming Not Noticeable: ‘The warming we have had last a 100 years is so small that if we didn’t have climatologists to measure it we wouldn’t have noticed it at all’ – Award-Winning Dr. Lennart Bengtsson, formerly of UN IPCC: ‘We Are Creating Great Anxiety Without It Being Justified’

‘High Priestess of Global Warming’ No More! Former Warmist Climate Scientist Judith Curry Admits To Being ‘Duped Into Supporting IPCC’ – ‘If the IPCC is dogma, then count me in as a heretic’

German Meteorologist reverses belief in man-made global warming: Now calls idea that CO2 Can Regulate Climate ‘Sheer Absurdity’ — ‘Ten years ago I simply parroted what the IPCC told us’

UN Scientists Who Have Turned on the UN IPCC & Man-Made Climate Fears — A Climate Depot Flashback Report – Warming fears are the “worst scientific scandal in the history…When people come to know what the truth is, they will feel deceived by science and scientists.” – UN IPCC Japanese Scientist Dr. Kiminori Itoh, an award-winning PhD environmental physical chemist.

‘Some of the most formidable opponents of climate hysteria include politically liberal physics Nobel laureate, Ivar Giaever; Freeman Dyson; father of the Gaia Hypothesis, James Lovelock — ‘Left-center chemist, Fritz Vahrenholt, one of the fathers of the German environmental movement’

Flashback: Left-wing Env. Scientist Bails Out Of Global Warming Movement: Declares it a ‘corrupt social phenomenon…strictly an imaginary problem of the 1st World middleclass’

Thought experiment: Aliens vow to destroy U.S. if it doesn’t quickly build the world’s best schools. What would we do? – The Washington Post

Jeremy Adams is a good friend and a great teacher.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/answer-sheet/wp/2015/07/07/thought-experiment-aliens-vow-to-destroy-u-s-if-it-doesnt-quickly-build-the-worlds-best-schools-what-would-we-do/

Interesting and worth discussion. Of course it depends on your definition of best schools; it is not true that offering a world class university prep education to all is :best” od even good – or possible.

Troop Reductions

……

<.>

The Pentagon’s budget, released in February, envisioned the reduction to 450,000 would occur by Sept. 30, 2018.

Some of the cuts were expected. During the peak of fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Army swelled to about 570,000 soldiers to ensure that deployments could be limited to one year. After most troops came home from those wars, the Army planned to shrink.

The Army should bottom out at 450,000 soldiers, said Michael O’Hanlon, a military analyst at the Brookings Institution.

Cutting “more would make me quite nervous,” he said.

The Army declined to comment on the proposed reductions in its forces.

If the automatic budget cuts known as sequestration, set to begin in October, take place the Army would have to slash another 30,000 soldiers, according to the document. At that level, the Army would not be able to meet its current deployments and respond to demands for troops in other regions.

Among the proposed changes, brigades at Fort Benning, Ga., and Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Alaska will be downsized from units of about 4,000 soldiers to battalion task forces of 1,050 soldiers.

Downsizing Army forces in Alaska “makes no strategic sense,” said Sen.

Dan Sullivan, a Republican member of the Armed Services committee from Alaska. The White House emphasis on shifting military assets to the Asia-Pacific region and concerns about Russian aggression in the Arctic require strong forces in Alaska.

“One person who’s going to be very pleased with this is Vladimir Putin,” Sullivan said.

The Army overall will require more than 450,000 soldiers because the number of national security challenges around the world have “risen dramatically” in the past few years.

In 2013, the Army maintained in budget documents that dipping below

450,000 soldiers could prevent it from prevailing in a war.

</>

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2015/07/07/army-plans-to-cut-40000-troops/29826423/

…..

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Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

How big an Army do we need? And what part should be Regular Army, immediately deployable, and what part can be reserves which can be called up – i.e. mobilized?

Red China –

I think it is somehow fitting that the Ultra-Welfare State should appear in a country that is already Socialist!

Mack Reynolds; we salute you!

For my take on Automation

Of course this hardly politically correct:

I reckon there is a positive side to just about anything…

  This is one case where I would agree with removing the Confederate Flag

I reckon there is a positive side to just about anything…

But I recall a lot of my classmates volunteered for the Army when Truman took us to war in Korea. Southernors were like that back then.

And we have this:

<.>

As the threat from ISIS extremists grows, the European Union’s head of foreign affairs and security policy Federica Mogherini has caused consternation by asserting that “political Islam” is a firm part of Europe’s future.

</>

http://www.infowars.com/eu-security-head-political-islam-is-the-future-of-europe/

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Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

Greece and Singapore

Phillip Greenspun suggests that Greece and Singapore are similar, and if Greece were to adopt the others laws wholesale they could copy Singapore’s economic success. I doubt a country in which fraud is a popularly accepted pastime could replicate the results of a country that abhors such crime. Just as individuals have attitudes, viewpoints, morals that strongly influence their lives, so do cultures.
http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/philg/2015/07/02/could-greece-simply-adopt-the-laws-and-policies-of-singapore/

David Smallwood

However this plays out, no one in Greece seems to have read Kipling.

The Gods of the Copybook Headings
by Rudyard Kipling
AS I PASS through my incarnations in every age and race,
I make my proper prostrations to the Gods of the Market Place.
Peering through reverent fingers I watch them flourish and fall,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings, I notice, outlast them all.
We were living in trees when they met us. They showed us each in turn
That Water would certainly wet us, as Fire would certainly burn:
But we found them lacking in Uplift, Vision and Breadth of Mind,
So we left them to teach the Gorillas while we followed the March of Mankind.
We moved as the Spirit listed. They never altered their pace,
Being neither cloud nor wind-borne like the Gods of the Market Place,
But they always caught up with our progress, and presently word would come
That a tribe had been wiped off its icefield, or the lights had gone out in Rome.
With the Hopes that our World is built on they were utterly out of touch,
They denied that the Moon was Stilton; they denied she was even Dutch;
They denied that Wishes were Horses; they denied that a Pig had Wings;
So we worshipped the Gods of the Market Who promised these beautiful things.
When the Cambrian measures were forming, They promised perpetual peace.
They swore, if we gave them our weapons, that the wars of the tribes would cease.
But when we disarmed They sold us and delivered us bound to our foe,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: “Stick to the Devil you know.”
On the first Feminian Sandstones we were promised the Fuller Life
(Which started by loving our neighbour and ended by loving his wife)
Till our women had no more children and the men lost reason and faith,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: “The Wages of Sin is Death.”

In the Carboniferous Epoch we were promised abundance for all,
By robbing selected Peter to pay for collective Paul;
But, though we had plenty of money, there was nothing our money could buy,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: “If you don’t work you die.”

Then the Gods of the Market tumbled, and their smooth-tongued wizards withdrew
And the hearts of the meanest were humbled and began to believe it was true
That All is not Gold that Glitters, and Two and Two make Four
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings limped up to explain it once more.
As it will be in the future, it was at the birth of Man
There are only four things certain since Social Progress began.
That the Dog returns to his Vomit and the Sow returns to her Mire,
And the burnt Fool’s bandaged finger goes wobbling back to the Fire;
And that after this is accomplished, and the brave new world begins
When all men are paid for existing and no man must pay for his sins,
As surely as Water will wet us, as surely as Fire will bum,
The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return.

Iraq falls apart

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/features/iraq-falls-apart-as-iran-backed-forces-keep-islamic-state-at-bay/story-e6frg6z6-1227427592125

Baghdad in the early northern summer has the atmosphere of a city under siege. Armoured vehicles carrying heavy machineguns are patrolling the area surrounding the international airport. The nearest positions of Islamic State are just 65km away. The atmosphere is fervid. The 40C summer heat adds to the effect.

The Islamic State threat pervades everything here. It is there in the muscular armed men deployed outside the luxury hotels. In the barbed-wire fences and heavy iron gates protecting the residences of the remaining foreigners. In the quick and suspicious glances passing between strangers.

Islamic State is surely already organising in the city, unseen. As it did in Ramadi and in Mosul, in Fallujah and all the way to Raqqa far to the west long before that. The mysterious explosions have already begun. Car bombings hit the parking lots of the Cristal and Babil hotels on May 28: 15 killed, 42 injured. No one thinks these will be the last.

The form that the defence against the Sunni jihadists is taking is also plain. At every intersection, on every wall, on every corner, the banners of Iraq’s Shia militias blare out their allegiance. The slogan “At your service, O Hussein” — referring to the greatest martyr of the Shi’ites, killed by the Sunni Ummayads at the battle of Karbala in AD680 — is everywhere. It is there next to the countless banners and posters of Hussein’s serene, bearded visage that one sees all around. It is there, too, amid the ubiquitous militia billboards, alongside pictures of ayatollahs Ruhollah Khomeini, Ali Khamenei, Mohammed al-Sadr and Ali al-Sistani

The same Shia sectarian slogan can be glimpsed on the wall of the Iraqi Army checkpoint on the road from the airport. At your service, o Hussein. That is to say, the defence of Baghdad against Islamic State is not taking place in the name of Iraq. The men doing the fighting and dying are there as Shi’ites. This applies even to many or most of those wearing the uniforms of the official Iraqi Security Forces.

But it applies a hundred-fold more clearly to the organisations that are bearing the brunt of the actual fight against the Sunni jihadists — in Baiji, in Anbar province and elsewhere. These are the Shia militias.

The militias are irregular political-military formations, organised on openly sectarian lines and flying openly sectarian banners. The most significant of them are supported by Iran. Their field commander is a man who may very well be a member of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. And it is they, under the collective banner of what is called the Popular Mobilisation in Iraq, who today form the key armed force in the government-controlled areas of central and southern Iraq, including the capital Baghdad.

The entire article is worth reading. According to this Australian news account, the Coalition of the Willing is helping ISIS.  You need not believe that to believe that the Shia do.

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

Chaos Manor View, Monday, July 06, 2015

“Throughout history, poverty is the normal condition of man. Advances which permit this norm to be exceeded—here and there, now and then—are the work of an extremely small minority, frequently despised, often condemned, and almost always opposed by all right-thinking people. Whenever this tiny minority is kept from creating, or (as sometimes happens) is driven out of a society, the people then slip back into abject poverty.

“This is known as ‘bad luck’.”

– Robert A. Heinlein

Entrepreneurs are fleeing Greece. Some Greek politicos are threatening to turn Greece into a way station for Near East refugees fleeing to Germany and Belgium. The result should be interesting,

China’s Hunger for Robots Marks Significant Shift   

Country’s emergence as automation hub contradicts assumptions about robots, global economy

By

Timothy Aeppel and

Mark Magnier

July 5, 2015 2:26 p.m. ET

http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-hunger-for-robots-marks-significant-shift-1436118228 

Having devoured many of the world’s factory jobs, China is now handing them over to robots.

China already ranks as the world’s largest market for robotic machines. Sales last year grew 54% from a year earlier, and the boom shows every sign of increasing. China is projected to have more installed industrial robots than any other country by next year, according to the International Federation of Robotics.

China’s emergence as an automation hub contradicts many assumptions about robots and the global economy.

Economists often view automation as a way for advanced economies to keep industries that might otherwise move offshore, or even to win them back through reshoring, since the focus is on ways to reduce costly labor. That motivation hasn’t gone away. But increasingly, robots are taking over work in developing countries, reducing the potential job creation associated with building new factories in the frontier markets of Asia, Africa or Latin America.

A confluence of economic forces is behind the trend in China. Labor costs, while low relative to advanced economies like the U.S.’s, have soared. That has undermined the calculus that brought many of those jobs there in the first place. And new robot technology is cheaper and easier to use than ever before. In addition, many of China’s fastest-growing industries, such as vehicle-making, tend to rely on automation regardless of where the factories are. Some jobs, such as delicate operations in electronics plants, can only be done with machines.

“We think of [the Chinese as] producing cheap widgets,” but that is not what they’re focused on, said Adams Nager, an economic research analyst at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation in Washington, D.C. China, he said, is letting industries that rely on lots of manual labor, such as clothing and shoe production, shift out of the country to focus on capital-intensive industries such as steel and electronics where automation is a driving force.

In this sense, what’s happening in China is no different than what has occurred in many other parts of the world.

The fact that it is happening in China, though, underscores a significant shift. Some economists believe China may be one of the last places where industrialization spawns the kind of massive job growth that allows a country to leapfrog into the ranks of the wealthier nations. If the automation trend continues, it will mean slower job growth, though that isn’t apparent yet in China.

The International Federation of Robotics estimates about 225,000 industrial robots were sold world-wide last year—a record number and up 27% from the year before. Robot sales grew in all the major markets, with over half the growth in Asia. But China is the rising star, with about 56,000 robots sold there in 2014.

One reason China will continue booming is because it has relatively low “robot density,” the trade group says. China has about 30 robots for every 10,000 factory workers. In Germany, the density is 10 times that amount.

“China has explosive growth [in robots],” said Henrik Christensen, head of Georgia Institute of Technology’s robotics lab, adding that all the world’s biggest automation companies are rushing to build factories there to supply demand for new machines.

Terry Hannon, chief business development and strategy officer for Adept Technology Inc., a U.S. robotics maker based near Silicon Valley, said he was startled to see 400 new domestic robotics makers at a Chinese trade show last year. Among those jumping in: Hon Hai Precision Industry Co.—better known as Foxconn—which has announced plans to build and install thousands of robots to assemble Apple Inc.iPhones and other products.

There is a pride factor at work in China’s rapid adoption of robots, whether made by domestic companies or manufactured in China by Western firms. “When the Chinese started to export, they often got pushback about what kind of quality they could deliver,” said Steven Wyatt, head of marketing and sales for ABB Robotics in Zurich. “They want to be able to say, ‘We use the same robots as you guys use in Western Europe and North America.’ ”

That is one reason the Chinese government is pushing the trend. In 2013, Beijing outlined a 2020 goal of having at least three globally competitive robot makers, eight subcontractor clusters, a 45% domestic market share for Chinese high-end robots and a tripling of robot penetration to 100 per 10,000 workers.

Some say this top-down approach can create something of a herd mentality and spur misdirected spending. “If you give funds to the wrong companies, you can crowd out those who will be the most productive,” said Gan Jie, a professor at Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business and a longtime board member of DJI, a Shenzhen, China-based drone maker.

Meanwhile, there is little evidence so far that robots are having a big impact on employment. Average urban wages in China rose more than 10% in 2014, even as the country remains on target to create at least 10 million new jobs this year.

Also important in spurring broader use of robotics, say factory owners, is their growing difficulty finding young Chinese willing to do often mind-numbing assembly-line work. Some electronics makers say they are battling turnover rates of up to 20% a month.

The job impact may be felt instead by other developing countries, since jobs that might have migrated out of China in search of lower-cost labor will remain rooted there.

Chen Zhengxiao, manager of Ruian Carbide Tool Co. in eastern Zhejiang province, a maker of parts for lathes and milling machines, said labor costs weren’t a factor in the company’s decision to use more robots. “Touching a product by hand causes quality problems,” said Mr. Chen. “The precision can’t be guaranteed. The process is also faster with robots.”

More than half of present jobs can be done by robots within ten years…

An Econ Lesson in a Shanghai Market

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10587845965603524902004581051862200079074

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

Chaos Manor View, Saturday, July 04, 2015

This morning Precious, the Surface Pro 3, said she had another update, but it was dated from long ago (March or so) and had to do with firmware; why it had never asked for this update may have to do with experimental Windows 10. It may not. Anyway I told it to go ahead, and as always it took a while, the percentage done estimate sitting unmoved and no indication other than its existence that anything was going on; then the percentage would jump and we’d have another wait. Eventually it was all downloaded and I was told that a reset would happen at 3 AM unless rescheduled. I told it to do it now, and some minutes later I had new wallpaper, but still Build 10159. A quick check showed I could log on to Swan, a Windows 8.1 system, and Bette, my Windows 7 former main machine; but it could not see Alien Artifact, the current Windows 7 main machine. I experimented and made sure I could transfer files to and from the machines I could see, and went back to work on the substantial amount of text Steve Barnes sent last night: essentially Part One of the new novel, along with an even larger “Encyclopedia Avolonia”, the story bible. I did some adjustments to the bible, and went to bed. It’s good stuff, and I feel like writer again, adding some details and generally having fun before plunging into the real work of contributing to the text; it’s character development time.

But while doing that I had the nagging feeling that it all needs backup, and Precious is one logical place for backups; so this morning when Precious said she wanted a long overdue update, it seemed reasonable to see if that changed Alien Artifact’s visibility. But nothing changed: Precious could see several machines including the ThinkPad portable, and had mapped drives to several of them, and that all worked; but not a sign of Alien Artifact, alas.

Next step: can Alien Artifact see Precious? And indeed he could, and clicking on Precious in My Computer on Alien Artifact immediately gave me access to Precious, root and branch. I could transfer files from Precious to Alien Artifact, and I could create Folders on Precious, so I did so, making a Master folder with sub folders for the each project I’m working onto Precious. I used Norton Commander as a file manager, and all worked perfectly. Well, perhaps not perfectly because the default library system of Windows has been a bit of a mystery ever since my brain cancer nearly a decade ago: but I was able to create a system I can find easily, so it doesn’t matter. I’ll use Commander to straighten it all out and put Mamelukes on Precious as well. Time to work on that also, but it’s in a master folder called WinWord, which has a hundred folders of all my projects including some I haven’t worked for years, and yes, even though disk space is cheap and redundancy is good, I admit I have about three incompatible organization schemes, and it’s getting absurd. But that’s for another time.

Meanwhile, I had established that Alien Artifact could see Precious; he couldn’t, last night before the update. That’s progress. Now I went to Precious, hit Winkey e, open This Computer, and Lo! I could see Alien Artifact. I tried to map Alien Artifact D Drive to Precious, and two things happened: suddenly I could see that Precious drive Z was already mapped to Alien Artifact D – and Precious wanted a password for Alien Artifact. And when I gave it, it was rejected. Now clearly it must have accepted it in the past, but not now.

Still, if Precious can see Alien Artifact, and receive files from him, eventually Eric or Alex or I will figure out what to do next; it’s already possible to back up everything one way or another, and transfer files (with an intermediary copy to either Swan or Bette) so everything I need to do is possible. What Microsoft needs to do is make their new security system usable by users. Now it’s only useful to hackers, which someone at Microsoft will eventually is not the goal.

Now back to work on the new text. Progress is being made, and it’s good stuff. If you liked Beowulf’s Children, you will love this.

1515 I find that Build 10162 is now available, and I am downloading it now. Perhaps this will take care of the situation. I continue to this stuff so you don’t have to.

This update was available earlier – by Thursday night – but for some reason my visit to updates today didn’t see it until I had downloaded the hardware stuff, which was a month old. But we’re 90% done with the update to a new build.

1730 The new build has downloaded and I am resetting. Eric warns me to be sure that network discovery is turned on, but I can’t see why that would change what it would see if it could be seen at all, or see anything at all. But we’ll find out. The installation is taking considerable time so I can’t test anything. Precious is resetting as I write this…  ah, 60% done. More later.

Ah.  I now have Build 10162, but it says it needs some new installation and it’s updating again.  Fortunately I don’t use that machine (Precious) for anything critical although I want to; I make no doubt that there’s a stable operating system out there that can wait for Windows 10. All the Microsoft gurus are using the Surface Pro 3, so there’s an incentive.  Me. I keep doing the experimental OS because that’s sort of what I do.  And updates are installing as I write this; whether it’s yet another build I don’t know. Fun, ain’t it?

1830: Well,  I have build 10162 and it no longer wants updating. Everything seems to work but I do not have the “credentials” to allow Precious to connect to Alien Artifact; the problem is the user name, which wants some domain name rather than just the login name.  I’m sure this is solvable, but Microsoft just improved things when we didn’t ask for the improvement, and made it unusable.

Eric reminds me that we will shortly have a raid backup system that should solve all the backup problems,

I will shortly have more to say about the Register article, but it is getting to dinner time.

win10 wifi access sharing thought

Jerry,

So apparently win10 isn’t going to share a plaintext wifi password.  Instead, it will be sharing what is effectively a magic spell, unpronounceable to mortal humans, that does the EXACT SAME THING as the password, namely getting access into a password protected system.

And somehow this is more OK than just giving out the password instead of a “hash” (i.e.. Magic spell) that does the same dang thing that the password does.

Nope, still not ok.  I put passwords on things that I don’t want to share.  I’m totally not ok with my OS sharing magic spells (hash, whatever) that bypass my password security.

It’s a bit like selling a car that would automatically unlock all its doors on the command of any other person who doesn’t have an actual key, as a default behavior.  Why would anyone want such a thing?

Sean

I asked for the source and got

win10 wifi access sharing thought

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/06/30/windows_10_wi_fi_sense/

There is some discussion on a handful of tech forums as well.

Sean

And then turned to my advisors.

Peter Glaskowsky says

It’s a real feature. It’s been in Windows Phone 8.1 since last year.

It’s described on Microsoft’s own Windows Phone website:

https://www.windowsphone.com/en-us/how-to/wp8/connectivity/wi-fi-sense-faq

And it’s been covered by reasonably responsible industry websites, for example:

http://www.windowscentral.com/wi-fi-sense-windows-phone-81

As well as the article Mr. Long mentions from the infamous scare-mongers at the Register.

As Microsoft says, it’s basically a way to “crowdsource” access to Wi-Fi to help more people get on Wi-Fi more easily. It helps access public Wi-Fi hotspots, as well as privately managed ones, and it’s those privately managed hotspots that are the only issue being raised here.

It’s opt-in on a per-user, per-network basis. There’s also a terribly awkward opt-out option that protects you even if someone else who has your Wi-Fi password decides to share it using Wi-Fi Sense. (That, to me, is the worst problem, but it’s unavoidable in any shared-password system.)

I’m a bit curious about some of the limitations they say they can impose on the Wi-Fi network, such as limiting guests using shared passwords to Internet access only, preventing them from accessing LAN resources like printers or webcams. I don’t think there’s any way to do that with older Wi-Fi access points that have an all-or-nothing security model, so maybe Wi-Fi Sense only works with newer routers. I’d like to get that answer, at least.

I have no idea what the underlying security model is, so I don’t trust it, and I wouldn’t use it, but it’s hardly evil for a “deal killer.” Just another misguided Microsoft attempt to make their ecosystem more attractive to users.

.                png

I should have known that, I expect, but I don’t keep up as much as I would like.

Peter adds

As a postscript, btw, I got into a long email bickering contest with an editor at The Register over that original misleading article. I got them to make two sets of changes during our exchange (which I documented by saving PDFs), but he wouldn’t yield on the deceptive headline. Even the changes in the body were basically minimal and inadequate.

He wanted to hide behind an assertion that “All the facts are in the article,” so a person could figure out what was actually going on by carefully reading the article and the Microsoft pages it links to.

I tried to explain that this wasn’t good enough since most people, reading articles the way they usually do, would come away with the wrong impression. At that point he just stopped responding.

A big change from the old days under Mike Magee, who enjoyed such verbal fencing but was reasonably good at fixing anything that was actually wrong.

I suppose any publication that makes Mike Magee look relatively responsible must be doing something wrong…

.              png

As Peter says, bottom line, Microsoft isn’t always as good at explaining what they are doing as they would like to be. My own observation is that without Bill Gates there’s no one in charge to set goals, so different parts of Microsoft set off in different directions; and if it takes a while to turn big ships, it takes longer to redirect a fleet of big ships…

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

Chaos Manor View, Thursday, July 02, 2015

1746

Exhausting day at Kaiser; all routine maintenance, but also an unexpected new immunization. Before I left I noticed that the Surface Pro 3 had overnight downloaded a new build for Windows 10 and had scheduled a reset for 3 AM for installing it. I told it to go ahead and do it now. That was at 10 this morning. I returned to find Build 10159 installed and waiting for my login. I logged in. There’s also a new Home picture.

I checked Network.

Precious sees some of my local network, including Swan, a Windows 8 machine that resides upstairs, but not Alien Artifact, the Windows 7 machine that functions as my main machine down here; and Alien Artifact does not see Precious, although he sees Swan. Last night with the old build, Precious saw and was seen by Alien Artifact, and they could connect to each other although they have different User Names and passwords. Now they can’t. Nothing has changed except the build.

Clearly we will need to work on this, but there is something wrong here.

I’m going out tonight and I’m exhausted now, so this wii be brief.

Protecting Humanity from Ice Ages.

<http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2015/07/protecting_humanity_from_ice_ages.html>

—————————————

Roland Dobbins

Miles thick ice is a far more dangerous threat to civilization than 6 tenths of a degree temperature rise; which is more likely, and do we have plans in case the models are wrong and the ice returns?

Palestinians: More Missed Opportunities

by Bassam Tawil  •  July 2, 2015 at 5:00 am

• It was Palestinian who hurt themselves: When Israelis were not able to hire Palestinian workers, they simply turned to foreign workers, prefabricated construction and other industrial innovations.
• If the boycott of goods made in the settlements is successful, thousands, if not tens of thousands of Palestinians will find themselves unemployed, hungry, and ripe for radicalization.
• The world will never give up its computing, medical, agricultural and start-up products for us. The Israelis will continue to prosper. They have already found other markets

Gatestone Institute

Windows 10 Updates 
Jerry,
As a long-time PC enthusiast, I have been following your work with Precious, the Surface Pro 3. I’m curious about the Win 10 frequent builds you’ve been installing. Why are you bothering since Win 10 will be officially released and downloaded to all users on July 29th? I personally would prefer to work with an official final release, as it is easier on my stress level and blood pressure.
But if you’re helping Microsoft with bug fixes that’s a different issue.
In any case, I enjoy reading about your struggles. Live long and prosper!

Brian E Claypool

Ah but hope springs eternal, and I do these silly thing so that you won’t have to.

Start menu

I’m not personally using Win 8, 8.1, nor 10 on any of my machines, yet.  I haven’t decided which machine I’ll test with when Win 10 officially releases.  I do have a couple of friends who I support who are on Win 8.1, so I do use that occasionally.

When I do update to Win 10, I will probably install one of the third party apps to emulate the Win 7 Start Menu.  A site I’ve been following for a couple of years recommends Classic Shell.  I’ve seen it mentioned on several sites around the ‘Net, when I’ve been searching for other Win 8+ info for other people.  It has several skins to choose from.

The Gizmo site aka techsupportalert.com routinely runs every download they recommend through a couple of different major virus/malware/adware testing sites before posting.  So, any program mentioned there is as safe as anything one downloads.

Drake Christensen

I’m hoping Microsoft catches on and makes 10 the best Windows yet. There’s no reason why it can’t be. The networking problems aren’t encouraging, though.

Coming Soon

Broadband a major factor in real estate value.

on.wsj.com/1IqW9Ub
Ties in perfectly with our conversation at Niven’s house yesterday.
Home buyers are choosing where they live based on access to broadband
Tom Cairns and real estate agent Carla Ness tour a home in western
Massachusetts. Mr. Cairns has been looking for a home and one requirement is
it have high speed Internet access. Photo: Michelle McLoughlin for The Wall
Street Journal
By Ryan Knutson Updated June 30, 2015 6:35 p.m. ET 0 COMMENTS
In May, Kara Burke and Tom Cairns thought they had found their ideal house:
a nicely-updated older three-bedroom home in Worthington, Mass.
But they didn’t make an offer because it didn’t have high speed Internet.
“We wouldn’t choose a house that didn’t have electricity,” Ms. Burke, 26
years old, said as she explained why. “It’s right on par with those things.”
As the Internet becomes central to the way Americans work and live, the
digital divide is taking on greater economic significance. Students without
Internet access at home may struggle to keep up with school assignments.
Towns with less access find themselves falling behind economically,
researchers say. Now, the availability of speedy Internet service is
starting to affect Americans’ biggest purchase: their homes.
Real-estate agents across the country say more buyers like Ms. Burke and Mr.
Cairns are turning their noses up at homes without fast Web access. Some
studies suggest those buyers are having a keen effect on home prices. A
nationwide study released on Monday by researchers at the University of
Colorado and Carnegie Mellon University finds fiber-optic connections, the
fastest type of high speed Internet available, can add $5,437 to the price
of a $175,000 home—about as much as a fireplace, or half the value of a
bathroom.
David Mans, a real-estate agent outside Boulder, Colo., said after he
started noting in his online listings whether properties had Internet
availability, he got fewer calls about properties that didn’t have it. “I
have situations where people won’t even look at it if it doesn’t have
broadband,” Mr. Mans said.
What people want in a home can vary a lot, and values can depend heavily on
broader market forces. But real estate professionals say there are certain
features that can be a deciding factor—like an extra bathroom or pool. And
broadband is starting to figure into that same calculus.
Telecom companies by law are required to make telephone service available to
every residence in their service areas, but the same isn’t true for all high
speed Internet providers. Phone lines can deliver DSL service, typically
slower than 10 megabits a second. Satellite service is usually even slower.
Fiber and some cable can deliver speeds of up to 1,000 megabits a second.
University of Colorado researchers compared more than 520,000 home sales
between 2011 and 2013 against government data on the type of Internet access
available. It built on a 2013 study by the same researchers that found a
similar effect on home prices in New York state. The researchers expanded
their study with funding from The Fiber to the Home Council Americas, a
group made up of municipalities, small telecom companies, and others like
Google Inc. that support the expansion of fiber networks.
The results mirrored the findings of a 2014 study by the University of
Wisconsin at Whitewater that found access to the Internet could add $11,815
to the value of a $439,000 vacation house in Door County, Wis.
The impact is most acute in rural areas, where Internet speeds tend to drop
dramatically. As of 2013, 92% of urban areas had high speed Internet,
compared with 47% of rural areas, according to the most recent data from the
Federal Communications Commission. The FCC defines high speed as 25 megabits
per second or more.
John Wilczak was getting wireless high speed Internet via Verizon ’s cell
towers at his home in Santa Ynez, Calif., a town of about 4,400 near Santa
Barbara. Cable and phone companies sell high speed Internet downtown, but
they hadn’t built along his street. Mr. Wilczak’s Verizon service worked
like a cellphone plan. Once when friends brought their children for a
week-long visit, the children blew past his 50 gigabyte monthly cap and he
was hit with a more than $900 bill.
Mr. Wilczak recently moved to a new house and dropped Verizon in favor of a
local wireless Internet company without data caps. He said at least half of
the 40 people who considered buying his old house weren’t interested in part
because it lacked reliable Internet
Unreliable Internet almost derailed Adam Frost’s online business selling
wooden toys made in European workshops. Mr. Frost tried using satellite
Internet when he first moved to New Salem, Mass., about seven years ago from
a New York City suburb, where he was paying about $60 a month for high speed
Internet.
“We were told there was adequate Internet access when we got up here, and
then discovered there really isn’t,” Mr. Frost said. The satellite service
would go down during bad weather, and he consistently went over his monthly
data limit.
‘We’re already feeling the negative impacts of not having adequate
broadband.’
—Monica Webb, WiredWest cooperative
Mr. Frost decided to pay Verizon $600 a month to install a dedicated copper
wire to his house for more reliable service. But it still isn’t fast enough,
especially as online services grow more data intensive. Last year it took
him 24 hours to download a software update for his computer, and just as the
download was nearly finished, his connection crashed and he had to start all
over.
In Western Massachusetts, where Mr. Frost lives, local officials are trying
to solve the problem by building their own high speed networks. To
accomplish that they’re borrowing a tactic developed a century ago when the
region was struggling to gain access to electricity. More than 40 towns have
formed a cooperative of Municipal Lighting Plants, a type of public utility
first invented to build electricity infrastructure, and are raising funds to
build out fiber connections.
Monica Webb is the chairwoman of the cooperative, called WiredWest. So far
this year, 19 of those towns have passed bond measures to fund construction.
More than 40% of residents in 14 of those towns have already paid a deposit
for service.
“Some might call us a coalition of the desperate,” Ms. Webb said. “We’re
already feeling the negative impacts of not having adequate broadband.”
Ms. Burke and Mr. Cairns, who passed on the yellow three-bedroom house in
May, decided not to make any offers until they see which towns commit to the
project.
“After we looked at I think maybe 10 houses we were like, ‘It doesn’t really
matter. We can’t pick a house because we don’t know which towns are doing
this,’ ” Ms. Burke said. “The towns that don’t pass it we absolutely will
rule out. It’s not a question.”

Getting truly high speed Wi-Fi to Niven’s house will be a feat, but Alex and Eric have a method. They’ll tell you about it when it’s done.

http://www.zdnet.com/article/mit-uses-artificial-intelligence-to-predict-online-learning-drop-outs/

MIT uses artificial intelligence to predict online learning drop outs (ZD)

MIT is trying to figure out which students will thrive in massive open online courses as well as the ones that’ll drop out.

By Larry Dignan for Between the Lines | July 1, 2015 — 16:12 GMT (09:12 PDT) |

MIT said it has begun using artificial intelligence and big data techniques to better predict which students will drop out from open online courses.

The news, which was detailed at a conference on artificial intelligence in education last week, is notable for a few reasons. First, online education is promising, but recent surveys have indicated that there are cultural issues at universities hampering online enrollment. The other issue is that some students simply aren’t disciplined enough for online learning.

MIT’s techniques touch on that latter point a bit.

Also see: Online education: Higher ed faculty won’t buy in

For massive open online courses, MOOCs for short, it’s unclear how many people are there to listen to lectures only and what percentage will actually do the homework. Other students may intend to do the homework, but be distracted by other events.

MIT is interested in that latter group that may miss a few deadlines and miss the benefits of the class. These students are deemed stopped out of the class. MIT researchers’ predictive model revolved around the following:

• A set of variables around courses such as time spent per homework problem or time spent on video lectures.
• Normalized variables compared against class averages.
• An algorithm that finds correlations between variables and a stopout. The algorithm looks at courses as well as its parts.

MIT’s model turned out to be accurate, but researchers also sampled importance based on weightings from similar students in courses as well as new variables. One variable could include time spent on a course on the weekend. That variable indicates motivation as well how busy a person is.

But Paul Horst’s University of Washington grade prediction program did that; the courts held that was racist although race was never recorded and was not an element; the very fact that black students had lower grades predicted than the average was deemed sufficient. It must be racist. It is likely that this will get the same result.

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.