Chaos Manor View, Thursday, September 24, 2015

It’s hot and once again I feel like a stagnating vegetable. So it goes.

The man made global warming movement got more support from the Pope’s speech, but His Holiness does not seem to be listening to the scientist members of his Jesuit order.

Certainly the CO2 level is rising, although other than its influencing global temperatures to rise I know of few effects; nor do I have any reason to believe we know much more than Arrhenius did when he calculated that doubling the C02 proportion of the atmosphere – which we have not done — would result in 2 degrees per century global temperature rise – which hasn’t happened yet. Wikipedia says:

Nowadays, the accepted explanation is that orbital forcing sets the timing for ice ages with CO₂ acting as an essential amplifying feedback.

Arrhenius estimated based on the CO2 levels at the time, that reducing levels by 0.62 – 0.55 would decrease temperatures by 4–5 °C (Celsius) and an increase of 2.5 to 3 times of CO2 would cause a temperature rise of 8–9 °C in the Arctic.^[16][13] In his book Worlds in the Making he described the “hot-house” theory of the atmosphere.

Increasing the proportion of CO2 in the atmosphere certainly causes some rise in temperature; the question is, how much? At some point it will have reabsorbed all the radiation from Earth to space that can be absorbed by CO2; some believe that it is likely to have done that now (since water vapor and methane are pretty effective in that absorption in many places, so there isn’t any left for CO2 to grab; more CO2 doesn’t have any to get).

But that’s generally true anywhere. CO2 is most effective at absorbing radiation from Earth to space (more effective in getting heat that would go to space and not be absorbed by something else like methane) in cold, dry areas. This does not seem to be reflected in any of the climate models.

The present models do not seem to take account of any volcanism whether atmospheric or undersea; do not account for the physical restriction of CO2 effectiveness to cold dry areas; cannot predict the present from the physical conditions of the past; cannot account for the present halt—however temporary – of the rise in temperature; cannot account for the Little Ice Age; cannot account for the Viking Warm; cannot account for the Roman Warm; and cannot explain why historically the CO2 levels rise after temperature rises rather than before. (Outside the models that’s easy to explain.)

The response of the Global Warming Warriors has been largely political. The science response tends to the ridiculous such as Mann’s attempt simply to erase the Viking and Roman Warm periods in favor of his “hockey stick”, which requires considerable data adjustment and ignoring historical records in favor of interpretations of tree rings and other proxies of temperature. The emerging Viking farms in Greenland and the records of increases in growing seasons in England and on the Continent are not considered valid proxies of temperatures. The models do not explain the Ice Ages, which are assumed to be brought about by orbital factors operating over so long a time period as can safely be ignored: this despite considerable evidence that Ice Ages went from temperate conditions to meters if ice year round in England and the Northern part of the European continent in under a century. The Ice came fast.

In the OR (operations research) business, we had a saying: you can prove anything if you have sufficient adjustment to your data.

Defense of the Global Warming hypothesis became extreme, with criminal prosecution being threatened for unbelievers, most of whom had already lost their grants. It can be lucrative defending Global Warming. Whittaker Chambers thought he was leaving the winning side for the losing when he left the Communist Party. Given the trends in Academia at the time, his observation, though wrong, was not ridiculous.

more reputable sources…

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/09/23/when-messaging-collides-with-science-the-hottest-year-ever-inside-a-global-warming-pause/

http://www.climatedepot.com/2015/09/20/update-leader-of-effort-to-prosecute-skeptics-under-rico-paid-himself-his-wife-1-5-million-from-govt-climate-grants-for-part-time-work/
Stephanie Osborn

“The Interstellar Woman of Mystery”
http://www.Stephanie-Osborn.com

Hal Lewis

You do, of course, realize that Dr. Lewis’s resignation from APS occurred 5 years ago, and that he died in early 2011. His comments have been rebutted numerous times.
DJ

No, I didn’t realize it, but I do note that although it is said that he has been rebutted, the rebuttals don’t seem so obvious. No one has stated that the Global Warming Scam is recent or new (and for the record I have never said it was a scam except on the part of specific individuals). The facts as he stated them have not changed much: the grants go to those who embrace the man made global warming theories; theirs also the publications. This may be because they are correct, but somehow the major problems have not, in my opinion, been addressed other than to say “but that was rebutted.” Discovering the actual rebuttal (as opposed to its proclamation) has proven impossible of discovery.

volcanoes effects on albedo, typo

Dr. Pournelle,
Agree that volcanoes seem to be left out of the equations, even though this is vehemently denied by people with variable familiarity with the mathematics involved. I’d also put in a plug for subsurface volcanic affects on ocean temperatures, they’re not part of either the models nor is there accurate sensing, nor adjustments made to ocean temperature readings.
Just to register an opposing viewpoint: I only bring typos to your attention when I feel that they change your intended meaning. I’ve been wrong several times, but you’ve clarified the points in question. Casual publication and personal correspondence are full of these minor errors, they don’t impede my enjoyment of your column/blog, and as with most things, copy editing should be done in moderation. Please don’t let self-checking get in the way of recording your thoughts — I’d rather have new blog posts from you than nothing.
With hopes for you continued recovery and returning good cheer,
-d

I do the best I can.

This might be interesting

    1960s Boeing Stealth Concept

http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/never-seen-photos-of-boeings-1960s-stealth-jet-concept-1732308296

Eric

Stealth aircraft. I heard rumors of something going on in Wichita, but no details.

The U.S. Air Force Has Loathed Close Air Support Since the Beginning.

Gimme a break. It is not just the US Air Force that hates CAS. All air forces hate CAS. Why? ‘Cause it’ll get you killed.

Arthur Lee Gould flew for the RFC in 1917 and, from his letters to his wife and his diary, compiled ‘No Parachute’ as a contemporary account of his experiences. When he joined 46 Squadron, the squadron had just made the switch to Sopwith Pups. The Pups were a match for German fighters only above 18,000 feet, so 46 Squadron flew top cover (air to air). The mission was cold and dangerous but the dangers could be mitigated.

In September 1917 the squadron switched to Sopwith Camels. The Camels flew low cover (10,000 – 12,000 feet) and ground attack sorties. Gould was shot down 3 times, all on ground attack missions. He was shot down twice in the space of 3 days. He had nightmares of ground attack and, like Roy Brown, lived on toast, tea, milk, and brandy. He went from being the new guy in the squadron to being the squadron’s senior pilot in 6 months. In January of 1918 the wing sent him to the Home Establishment.

USAF distaste for CAS in Korea was not new. The pilots of the RFC hated CAS in 1917. I recall a memoir ‘A Fighter Pilot’s Story’ about a USAAF pilot flying P47s over France and Germany from D-Day to VE-Day. Over 11 months his squadron suffered 300% casualties. Three hundred percent.

I do not say the mission should not be done. CAS must be done. But it is prejudiced, ignorant, stupid, and damned silly to expect pilots to like it.

Live long and prosper

h lynn keith

Escorting heavy bombers will get you killed. Air superiority missions will get you killed. Being an infantryman will get you killed. Artillerymen get killed. Wars get you killed.

The problem with close air support is that there is no career path for those successful at it; the great careers are for other pilots in other missions. There are exceptions. And of course in WWII after air supremacy in Europe was established, cruising along thirty miles from the line of engagement in a P-47 looking for anything that might supply the Wehrmacht on their front lines with food or ammunition was an extremely effective use of air power, and pretty damned safe compared to being in the advance party of an armored column. Close support in that situation shortened the war by a lot; the Army concluded that if they’d had that earlier, the war wouldn’t have lasted as long. What makes you think I want anyone to love the CAS mission? As you say, it must be done, which I think is all I have ever said. I certainly do not expect gunners involved in an artillery duel to love their work.

: General Blasts A-10 vs. F-35 Debate as ‘Ludicrous’ | DoD Buzz

Some of the reader comments on this article are right on. Some are just priceless.

http://www.dodbuzz.com/2015/09/15/general-blasts-a-10-vs-f-35-debate-as-ludicrous/

John Harlow

In a session with reporters, Carlisle called the A-10 “a fantastic airplane doing fantastic work down range” in Iraq.

“One of the questions I get is if you’re going to retire the A-10s why are you still using them in the fight? Well, that’s an easy answer. I don’t have enough capacity. I’ve got to use every single thing I’ve got. I don’t have enough capacity” to handle the missions in Iraq and Syria without the A-10s, the general said.

However, Carlisle said, “It’s about how we do CAS, not what platform is replacing what platform.” In addition, the A-10 was not suited for operating against more sophisticated air defenses being developed by Russia, China and other potential adversaries, he said.

“The A-10, it’s more difficult for that airplane to operate in a contested environment,” Carlisle said. “We would lose, which none of us want to accept, we would lose a good portion of those airplanes potentially in a contested environment.”

Which of course is correct; ground support before establishing air supremacy – and nowadays that means suppression of ground based intercept – is costly, dangerous, and expensive. No one I know believes the air supremacy mission is unimportant; but the airplane most useful for that mission is not likely to be the best airplane for the close support mission. Educating the Congress, and the McNamara’s, to accept that truth is never easy. I really ought to find time to update Strategy of Technology, but alas, Dr. Possony has been gone for decades, and Col. Kane died last year.

http://www.zdnet.com/article/the-software-robots-changing-outsourcing-up-to-60-percent-of-the-tasks-can-be-automated/

The ‘software robots’ changing outsourcing: ‘Up to 60 percent of the tasks can be automated’ (ZD)

Romanian startup UiPath is targeting the BPO industry by helping robots take over the jobs that human workers hate.

By Andrada Fiscutean for Central European Processing | September 24, 2015 — 10:45 GMT (03:45 PDT) |

UiPath’s strategy is straightforward. Its CEO Daniel Dines refuses to make PowerPoint presentations for potential clients. “Instead, we show them the software and teach them what it can do.”

Dines and his team are in the ‘software robots’ business, part of a market expected to stretch to $5bn by 2020, up from less than $200m in 2013, according to Transparency Market Research. A challenger to Blue Prism and Automation Anywhere, the Romanian startup estimates it will quadruple its annual turnover this year, to $2m.

The team started working together some ten years ago. Initially, their products addressed the consumer market. Then, they wrote libraries for UI automation and screen scraping for other developers to use, a step that helped them test their ideas and gather feedback.

A few years ago, they started working on their own robotic process automation platform. “We came late to the table, so we’re using the latest technologies,” Badita said.

A UiPAth software robot mimics a user. It sees the computer screen the way a human does. It clicks buttons, copy-pastes data from a picture to a spreadsheet, looks for specific numbers in a PDF file, or pops-up information about a client you’re talking to on the phone.

How long before 70% of jobs they will pay someone to do can be done by a robot?

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

Chaos Manor View, Wednesday, September 23, 2015

Fall Equinox

For explanation of equinox: http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-34334712

There is new material in Chaos Manor Reviews http://chaosmanorreviews.com/ and there will be more. Tell your friends.

Great conference with Barnes, Niven, and Jack Cohen (by Skype) this morning, followed by a great lunch at Hugo’s. There Will Be War: the anthology is filling faster than I thought it would, including some new stories written just for us (reminder: we buy only non-exclusive anthology rights, sometimes known as reprint rights; we do not pay extra for first rights). Anyway, if you have a story for the new There Will Be War, now’s the time to get it to submissions@therewillbewar.net .

Dr. Cohen had some marvelous biology for our colonists on Tau Ceti to discover; the saga of interstellar colonization proceeds. Now it’s sort of my turn, so I’ll have to get to work on the plot, and while I’m at it contribute some scenes.

This message gives serious cause for concern:

Top Scientist resigns / Global Warming Subject

see http://www.sott.net/article/277349-Top-scientist-resigns-from-post-admits-Global-Warming-is-a-scam
“Top US scientist Hal Lewis resigned this week from his post at the University of California at Santa Barbara. He admitted global warming climate change was nothing but a scam in his resignation letter. “

Gary

As reported by the Gateway Pundit: Top US scientist Hal Lewis resigned this week from his post at the University of California at Santa Barbara. He admitted global warming climate change was nothing but a scam in his resignation letter.

I think “nothing but a scam” goes beyond the evidence, and Dr. Lewis does not go so far as that; but he does come close. His letter of resignation is given in the article, and says that physics has been corrupted by money, much as Eisenhower predicted. His resignation was as a Fellow of the American Physical Society, not from the University of California. It is worth reading.

Meanwhile, we have

Ice age predictions

This letter to the editor of NYTimes from a NASA scientist clears up the question of how global warming can be modeled without taking account of the ice ages.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/12/opinion/wobbling-on-climate-change.html?_r=0

Hoyt Purcell

Which purports to explain why the various climate models pay no attention to the long term trends responsible for Ice age predictions.

I would myself question whether this “clears up” anything; if we understand the Ice Ages that well, I would think, then that understanding would be better known; it may be my ignorance, but it is my understanding that the role of volcanoes and their effect on albedo has not been eliminated. If we actually understand any part of global climate, I would think we would eagerly incorporate that into our models, even if the effect was trivial; and I am not sure I believe that the effects are trivial. I thought the origin and explanations of the Ice Ages was still under debate, and not settled for all time by the hand calculations of a Serbian mathematician in the early 20^th Century. I know that it was not generally accepted that we knew all about the Ice Ages during the 1970’s when I attended meetings of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and the scientific consensus of climate scientists was that we were headed for lean years and lots of cold. It may well be that the “wobbles” in Earth’s orbit have effects that take hundreds of years to make a noticeable difference, but I also know that Belgian lake sediments indicate that the local climate went from deciduous trees to being under several meters of ice in under 100 years; and apparently more than once. The sudden oncoming of the Ice Ages was not so casually dismissed as Dr. Piers Sellers of Goddard would have us believe.

http://io9.com/5119304/ice-ages-start-and-end-so-suddenly-its-like-a-button-was-pressed-say-scientists

and

http://www.livescience.com/7981-big-freeze-earth-plunge-sudden-ice-age.html

will tell you more; apparently the consensus at Goddard is not shared by everyone in that field. And as I said, the sediments in lakes on both sides of the Channel show rather sudden transitions from deciduous trees dropping leaves to ice. I would myself believe that if all is clearly understood it might be considered appropriate for our computer models; and that a model that cannot distinguish between a climate appropriate for deciduous trees and being covered by meters of ice might need modification. The map is not the territory.

“What we see here has nothing to do with seeking refuge and safety.

It is nothing but opportunism.”

<https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/migrants-are-disguising-themselves-as-syrians-to-gain-entry-to-europe/2015/09/22/827c6026-5bd8-11e5-8475-781cc9851652_story.html>

—————————————

Roland Dobbins

Of course.

Subediting

Been a reader of Jerry for more than 40 years – welcome back. But the standard of editing seems to have slipped.

Typo’s in virtually every article.

As an ex magazine editor (80 Micro for one) it hurts me to read … if you want free help then ask.

Jim Perry

Thank you; since my stroke I have been a sloppy typist, and can only do two finger typing. I am doing the best I can. I apologize, but I am not sure I can promise better.

The U.S. Air Force Has Loathed Close Air Support Since the Beginning.

<http://warisboring.com/articles/the-u-s-air-force-has-loathed-close-air-support-since-the-beginning/>

—————————————

Roland Dobbins

Yes, I fear so.

http://fortune.com/2015/09/22/cybersecurity-women-careeres/

The gender gap is especially high in the business of securing the world’s data.

Women represent more than half of U.S. college graduates, yet they account for only 11% of today’s cybersecurity workforce. That’s even lower than the 26% of IT professionals who are female, according to a report from the ISC Foundation.

Given the rise of cyber attacks, the need for experts in this field is likely to increase. It’s estimated that almost 2 million cybrsecurity professionals will be needed by 2017, and 1.5 million security jobs will be open and unfilled by 2020. More than 200,000 cybersecurity jobs in the U.S. are currently unfilled and postings have gone up 74% over the past five years.

The shortage of women in cybersecurity struck home when I recently attended a conference at New York University’s Polytechnic School of Engineering, held to promote cybersecurity careers among female high school and college students. The young women I met had a passion for computer science, but were discouraged to go into cybersecurity by their friends at school. Their peers didn’t see the mysterious, male-dominated culture of cybersecurity as a place where girls belonged. I told these young women to follow their instincts and not give in to people throwing cold water on their goals. <snip>

SUBJ: The solar system to scale 

Just as an FYI: Along the bicycle path in Eugene, Oregon that runs along the Willamette river, there is a scale model of the solar system, similar to the youtube video on your site yesterday. It runs approx 5.5 miles of bicycle path and is at least 20 years old. Each planet is cast as part of a bronze plinth. The sun is in the park downtown.

Quite took me aback first time I saw it. Should your readers be in the neighborhood, I recommend the bike ride. The beer is excellent in Eugene too. 🙂

Cordially,

John

“Before I publish this, are you convinced that the Texas authorities acted moronically?  He was charged, not with making a bomb, but with making a fake bomb.  He repeatedly was uncooperative with the authorities before he was arrested; in particular he would never say why he brought a bomb-looking object – it looks like NCIS or any other TV show bomb – to school on 9/11. He just insisted it was a clock.”

——————–

Recall my story years ago about the Bomb Squad here taking me off in handcuffs in front of everyone in the office without telling me what was going on.

I lost a day and a half of wages as well as having to pay the deductible to repair my vehicle.  At a time when I was not sure where my next job was coming from.

The lesson – always say ‘I don’t consent to that’ and ‘I want a lawyer’.  In my mind he co-operated too much as he said more than the above two sentences. 

B-

I do recall that, and it was outrageous; but I would have taken Mr. Mohammed’s device to be a fake bomb, and I think the police acted as if they did.

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

Chaos Manor View, Tuesday, September 22, 2015

There is new material in Chaos Manor Reviews http://chaosmanorreviews.com/ and there will be more. Tell your friends.

I recommend http://www.zdnet.com/article/the-night-alexa-lost-her-mind/ to your attention. Alexa is an Amazon home control gadget that has become quite popular; I have one, but I have nothing for it to operate, so it just sits there in its handsome box. I ordered it on whim when they were not yet available, and Amazon duly shipped it months later after I had forgotten it. I don’t even know where to order things for Alexa to activate or control. I had forgotten it until I saw this article, and now I suppose I will need to find out just what it can do for me.

I can also recommend https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2015/09/21/what-apples-ad-blocking-fight-is-really-about/. It’s clear to me that the current ad situation cannot endure. I am willing to put up with some ads – after all, they sponsor the shows I am watching – but there is a limit to what I will endure. After that I won’t watch that show unless I can record it and fast forward through the ad. I seldom watch shows as they are broadcast; why should I. I used to have sympathy for advertisers – I grew up in the radio business – but we thought double-spotting a bit rude, and three or four ads in a row went beyond the bounds. Naïve, weren’t we?

It’s too hot to walk, and for some reason I didn’t feel like writing. Funk, I suppose. I’ll get over it. It’s hot in here, too.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2015/09/21/internet-companies-are-rushing-to-defend-the-fccs-net-neutrality-rules-in-court/

• Web companies are fighting in court for the FCC’s net neutrality rules (WP)

By Brian Fung September 21 at 9:35 AM

A top Washington trade group for Internet companies such as Dropbox, Facebook and Netflix is now defending federal regulators in a major court battle over net neutrality, adding a legal brief to the flurry from both sides of the debate.

Arguing that the FCC acted legally when it rolled out strong new rules for broadband companies this year, the Internet Association said Monday that the regulations help protect consumers from Internet providers who control access to the Web. The “friend-of-the-court” filing called for the FCC’s net neutrality order to be fully upheld — endorsing for the first time the legal approach the FCC used to implement its regulations.

“Consumers and innovators will benefit from the Internet openness promoted by the FCC’s net neutrality Order,” it reads.

Opponents of the rules, such as AT&T and the National Cable and Telecommunications Association, filed a lawsuit against the agency in April. They’re arguing that the FCC overstepped its authority in designing its net neutrality policy, and are calling for the rules to be overturned by the court.

The FCC’s net neutrality policy subjects Internet providers such as AT&T, Comcast and Verizon to some of the same rules that govern legacy telephone service in the United States. The move was hotly contested by industry amid fears of an administrative power grab that critics said would lead to the government’s direct involvement in setting retail prices for Internet.

The FCC’s rules also regulate providers of cellular data in similar ways — a move that the wireless industry argues is illegal. But Internet Association president Michael Beckerman said the FCC used its authority properly.

“Internet access has changed over the past few years,” said Beckerman. “My expectations are now the same whether I’m accessing the Internet from my mobile device or from my home computer.”

And the beat goes on. Meanwhile the net shuts down for about fifteen minutes at 1600 every day for me. I don’t know what Time Warner is doing. I am sure there is a regulation against it. I just kiva with it and continue to count my blessings; it took a decade to get reliable high speed Internet at Chaos Manor.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/columnist/baig/2015/09/22/iphone-6s-6s-plus-3d-touch-great-camera-add-up-tempting-upgrade/72591074/ gives a pretty good review of the Apple phones, if you can endure all the ads that go with it. I confess I could not; fortunately I got a copy of the actual text article, free of ads, pop-ups, strange offers, distractions advertising other articles which will bring with them even more unavoidable unendurable advertisements for products I avoid, etc. Anyway, he tells you a user’s reasons for liking the new Apple phone.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2015/09/21/what-well-encounter-on-the-path-to-the-jobless-future/

What we’ll encounter on the path to the jobless future

By Michael Fertik and Vivek Wadhwa

In just two short decades or so, we’ll enter a jobless future.

Thanks to highly disruptive advanced technologies, jobs — even industries — will soon vanish, becoming remnants of a distantly remembered past. Other positions will be more efficiently done by machines, eliminating the need for human employees. This has happened before – indeed, since the dawn of the Industrial Age – but never in history at the same speed and scale. It’s the advent of the “labor-light economy,” as defined by noted MIT researchers Andrew McAfee and Erik Brynjolfsson, who have explored the benefits and downsides of rapid technological advancement.

At the same time as machines displace most of us, our fundamental needs — think of Maslow’s basic hierarchy — will be met through the application of technologies. Food, energy, shelter, and health care will be free or so low cost that they’re virtually free. Even education will be eventually be free.

There’s a lot more, and it makes more sense than do a lot of similar articles. Of course science fiction has been presenting stories of the jobless future for years, one of the most memorable being one by Poul Anderson in the 50’s or early 60’s. If the problem for socialism is that you eventually run out of other people’s money, the march of technology has made it increasingly more likely that most of the money will come from robots who, presumably, won’t want it. Marx envisioned such a future, when machines did most of the work, and no one would have to labor more than a few hours a day if that. He saw it as an utopia. Other writers have seen it as a nightmare.

There is no question that over half the things people do for money now can be done by robots, and it is becoming cheaper to roboticize more and more jobs including many that seemed safe. There is also financial incentive to use robots rather than risk regulation…

One thing never discussed is personal service and domestic service. It is politically incorrect to want a housemaid. And if the government is going to rob some robot to give away enough to live on and more, why would you want the job.

If idle hands make a devil’s workshop, think of how many such workshops are in our future.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2015/09/20/breakthrough-cloaking-technology-grabs-militarys-attention/72544510/

Breakthrough in cloaking technology grabs military’s attention (USA Today)

Kyle Jahner, Military Times 10:09 a.m. EDT September 21, 2015

An academic says he and his colleagues have demonstrated a major breakthrough in the quest for invisibility, and he has the military’s attention.

Boubacar Kante, a professor at the University of California-San Diego, and his colleagues tested the first effective “dielectric metasurface cloak.” That’s a fancy way of describing a super-thin, non-metal material that manipulates electromagnetic waves, including visible light and radio waves.

IF you can’t see it, it’s harder to kill it…

http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1327740&

3D Printed Parts Help Regenerate Nerves (EE Times)

Custom scaffolds regrow nerves in rats

R. Colin Johnson

9/21/2015 10:01 AM EDT

PORTLAND, Ore.–Today more than 200,000 people per year experience traumatic nerve damage from accidents or disease. Whoever thought a 3D printer could help. The University of Minnesota professor Michael McAlpine has proven that 3D printed scaffolds customized to each particular patient, can now regrow complex nerves, which has never been possible before. Current successful trials are in rats, but McAlpine says that human trials are just around the corner.

I’ve been using regeneration stimulators in my stories for decades, but I confess I neverc thought of sending wounded soldiers to the print shop.

APOD: 2015 September 18 – A Plutonian Landscape

Jerry

Look at this:

http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap150918.html

Boring planet, not.

Ed

But planet, yes.

https://techpinions.com/why-ios-could-become-the-enterprise-os-of-the-millennial-generation/41847

Why iOS Could Become the Enterprise OS of the Millennial Generation

The Daily Techpinion

Tim Bajarin / September 21st, 2015

For the majority of my life, Windows and the Mac have been the operating systems that have dominated my personal computing experiences. iOS and Android only recently have become supplemental operating systems I use in my smartphones and tablets. But I believe there is a changing of the “OS Guard” happening as Gen Y and Gen Z users grow up and become millennials and move into the business sector. The tech tools they use and how they use them will be quite different than the generation before.

This younger generation does use PCs. However, they actually spend the most time on their iPhones and iPads and Macs are mostly relegated to serious productivity projects. More importantly, they know iOS inside and out as they spend much more of their day in this operating system then they do on any computer they have.

And much more. And now I have to get to work.

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

Chaos Manor View, Monday, September 21, 2015

This morning Roberta was going out for an errand, and her car alarm went off and stayed on long enough to worry me, so I went out just in time to see her driving off with a cheery wave. The weather was sunny and warm, but there was a cool breeze, so I took the opportunity to take my wheeled walker for a three mile walk. Yesterday was over 100 and debilitating, and I was beginning to feel like a vegetable. The walk went well, I was able to do a series of stretches on the low wall near what used to be a Catholic High School, and came back exhausted but feeling better. Now it’s cooling fast outside, and clouding up, and we may get some much needed rain.

Anyway I walked three miles and stretched well, the day is cooling down, and I no longer feel like a wilted vegetable.

The daily Time Warner 4 PM net slowdown has begun. We’ll see how long it lasts.

I see that the hoopla over the “cool clock” has slowed down a bit, although the Council on American Islamic Relations is doing its best to keep it open. And, of course, there are those who say this is just a story of a bright kid and stupid police:

About Ahmed Mohammed’s clock

Dear Jerry Pournelle:
Some of your correspondents propose a conspiracy theory of Ahmed Mohammed’s clock: that the outrage over this display of teacher-and-cop stupidity was preplanned. I’m glad that at least we all agree that the teacher-and-cop stupidity was authentic. The outrage in response was swift and thorough; which some of your correspondents think proves that it was orchestrated beforehand.
I think that the media was indeed prepared, but not in detail, just in general. I imagine that somewhere in the White House database there’s an app titled “What To Say When Authorities Do Something Moronic To A Child”. It has blanks to fill in; times, names, places. It also has checklists: sex/fear/religion/dissent as ostensible cause of officious idiocy; white/black/brown/Hispanic/Native-American/Moslem/Asian target of officious idiocy; male/female/gay/lesbian/trans gender of target; 1-5 / 6-10 / 11-14 / 15-20  as age of target; dirt-poor/middle-class/regular-rich/stinking-rich as wealth of target child’s family; inconvenience/humiliation/imprisonment/injury/death inflicted on target child by moronic authorities. Fill in the blanks, complete the checklist, click ‘compile’, and the robot will write the story automatically.
I theorize that this app is owned by the New York Times and many other media outlets. The media compiled and distributed this idiocy-mocking app for the same reason that firefighters collect fire-fighting equipment. Firefighters don’t know where the next fire will be; nor do reporters know where the next outbreak of violent official incompetence will be; but both know that it will happen, and both know from experience what to do the next time it does happen. Be Prepared.
My own view of the event is filtered through the lens of nerd solidarity.  Sure the teachers and cops were afraid of a skinny 14-year-old boy; but their imaginary bomb was just an excuse. What really terrorized them was the lad’s intelligence. Since competence is not, technically, a crime, those frightened by it must find other charges to press. Fortunately for them, “scary technical skill” is now a prosecutable offense.
Sincerely,
Paradoctor

Before I publish this, are you convinced that the Texas authorities acted moronically?  He was charged, not with making a bomb, but with making a fake bomb.  He repeatedly was uncooperative with the authorities before he was arrested; in particular he would never say why he brought a bomb-looking object – it looks like NCIS or any other TV show bomb – to school on 9/11. He just insisted it was a clock.

I fail to see the intelligence they impute to him.  My boys could have made that gadget when 14, given that it was for sale on eBay.  It was a bit more realistic than a box with a fuse sticking out of it, but it looked like it was intended to fool the naïve into thinking it was a fake bomb. The police thought that was what it was, and it is unlawful to bring fake bomb anywhere with the intent to scare anyone.  Maybe it’s a bad law, maybe not, but you sure would not take that thing on an airplane.

Jerry Pournelle

Chaos Manor

About Ahmed Mohammed’s clock

Yes, I am convinced that the Texas authorities earned their laughing-stock status. I hear that five of the teachers he showed his science project to were fine with it; but an English teacher freaked out, and the rest is history.
Anyone can make a mistake; so as soon as the cops noticed that the clock was ticking up and not down, it was time for them to back off. But no, they’re the type of authorities who cannot make a mistake; and being a brown Moslem teen too scared to utter the word ‘bomb’ is proof of guilt.
It really was a clock, so he told the truth; and he didn’t intend any scary hoax. But the cops hoaxed themselves; and being scary is a crime proven by the accusation. Truth and evidence are beside the point, as is the presumption of innocence.
I charge Ahmed Mohammed with ignorance; of Texan bigotry, of Texan anti-intellectualism, of 9/11 defeat-celebration theatrics, and of the blindness of power. Fortunately ignorance is correctable by education; which this experience certainly gave him.

Paradoctor
…

Thank you for being clear in stating your opinion of the capabilities and attitudes of the police officers whose duty is to keep the peace. I do not agree. It is clear they did not think that pencil box with its ugly contents was a bomb, and they did not treat the incident as a bomb. They thought, as I would have thought, that looked like a fake bomb, and they acted accordingly. They gave him ample opportunity to explain why he would bring an object that eerily resembled most of the bombs you see on TV action adventures to school on 9/11. He did not cooperate, but insisted that it was a clock. He would have had to be very naïve and somewhat retarded not to recognize that nearly everyone would get the first impression that it was in fact a bomb, but he kept insisting that it was a clock.

He had taken a working clock and turned it into a mess; not a crime, but hardly an act worthy of White House commendation, and hardly worthy of the Presidential comment about a cool clock. There is no crime in that; there is no crime in taking it to school unless he intended it to be taken for a bomb; and once again the police acted accordingly, questioning him about his intention. Under Texas law, is a crime to scare people with a fake bomb. That was explained to him. He grinned and said it was a clock.

He and his cool clock were removed from the school. At the police station the handcuffs were removed. So far he had not been photographed in handcuffs, but at the police station young Mohammed’s father insisted that they be put back on him so that his sister could photograph him in handcuffs. The police naively complied.

Somehow the news of all this reached the President of the United States and the President saw fit to postpone whatever he was working on and take time to pay attention to this case. My experience has been that getting the attention of the President requires either an actual pressing emergency, or scheduling and preparation; the Council on American Islamic Relations had no problem getting his attention, although the urgency of the matter is not very clear; prior scheduling seems at least as reasonable. Whereupon the President invites this young clock hobbyist to the White House, and various other important people issue invitations and offers.

It was all spontaneous and you can believe as much of that as you want to.

Blackguarding our defenders is hardly new. For a great reading of Kipling’s poem, try https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNMHOc9xfKQ

From Frank Gaffney, but if the content is even about half true — and I haven’t endeavored to fact-checked — then there is much, much more to this than CNN will want us to know.

http://www.kaufmancountytparty.org/high-school-students-clock/?utm_campaign=shareaholic&utm_medium=facebook&utm_source=socialnetwork

Richard White

Austin, Texas

And that may be enough about the young Mr. Mohammed, his politician father, the Council on American Islamic Relations, and the suddenly instantly available President of the United States.

You’ve seen this link before, but it’s still relevant if a bit long. http://blogs.artvoice.com/techvoice/2015/09/17/reverse-engineering-ahmed-mohameds-clock-and-ourselves/

There are no surprises here, and I think no comment is needed.

: Lion hunts and good intentions

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

Good intentions without prudence do not always yield good results. This one took me by surprise.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/13/world/a-hunting-ban-saps-a-villages-livelihood.html

Evidently a number of localities banned trophy hunting in the wake of last year’s killing of Cecil. 

Guess what? MORE lions are dying since then, not fewer.
Why? 
Because the people who lived there viewed lions as economic assets so long as they attracted tourists who would shower dollars on their locales in exchange for the head of a predator.   So they would work to conserve them and preserve their numbers. It meant preserving their own livelihoods as well.

Well, guess what? With the end of trophy hunting, the economic value of the lions is zero.  Which means the villagers now regard them as pests who sneak into their farms and murder their cattle.  So they have  no interest in preserving the lions, only in killing them all. And that is what is happening.
There is a similarly related story where “carbon credits” resulted in the burning of an African village so westerners could build a “carbon-friendly” tree farm:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/22/world/africa/in-scramble-for-land-oxfam-says-ugandans-were-pushed-out.html?_r=4&scp=3&sq=uganda&st=cse

Lead me to this conclusion: Whenever first worlders have a moral brainwave, it’s third-worlders who pay the price.

Respectfully,

Brian P.

something wonderful: the solar system to scale [buffy willow]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zR3Igc3Rhfg

Paul

lovely sunspot article

Dear Sir,

For your reading pleasure: “The 315 Year Old Science Experiment” about accurate sunspot counting across the centuries.

http://nautil.us/issue/22/slow/the-315_year_old-science-experiment

Peroration:
“…the placid mindset of Schwabe, who didn’t need to know what would eventually be found in his data, only that there was merit in observing.”

Respectfully,

/Bob J

Is there a lesson in there?

El Nino

Submitted for your consideration:

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2015/09/uah-v6-0-global-temperature-update-for-aug-2015-0-28-c/

The record 1998 El Nino is labeled and clearly evident. The upticks in the average since generally correspond to weaker El Nino’s according to the timeline of El Ninos on Wikipedia.

Tracking the data on Dr. Spencer’s site, I have yet to see anything that looks like the record El Nino that we’re being warned about.  The recent average is trending upward, but very slowly compared to the other recent El Ninos.

Of course, I could be just another closed-minded official scientist, but I prefer to follow the data.

Jim Woosley

TSA Doesn’t Care That Its Luggage Locks Have Been Hacked (Intercept)

Thanks Jerry – I printed a set for myself last week.  It takes a bit of skill and finesse to get usable keys in plastic, but not too bad.  I expect we’ll see them on eBay shortly.

In any case,  I tell folks that by using a non-TSA lock, you at least know it’s been opened, just carry a spare for the return trip.  But for that a Zip-Tie works just as well, and is far cheaper.  It’ll keep a casual thief out, and let you know if someone got in.  Kind of like leaving a light on your porch turned on when someone else leaves theirs off.

To be fair though, no luggage is secure.   If it’s important, don’t check the bag.

Cheers,

Doug

TSA Doesn’t Care That Its Luggage Locks Have Been Hacked
https://theintercept.com/2015/09/16/tsa-doesnt-really-care-luggage-locks-hacked/
In a spectacular failure of a “back door” designed to give law enforcement exclusive access to private places, hackers have made the “master keys” for Transportation Security Administration-recognized luggage locks available to anyone with a 3D printer.
The TSA-recognized luggage locks were a much-vaunted solution to a post-9/11 conundrum: how to let people lock their luggage, on the one hand, but let the TSA inspect it without resorting to bolt cutters, on the other.
When the locks were first introduced in 2003, TSA official Ken Lauterstein described them as part of the agency’s efforts to develop “practical solutions that contribute toward our goal of providing world-class security and world-class customer service.”
Now that they’ve been hacked, however, TSA says it doesn’t really care one way or another.
“The reported ability to create keys for TSA-approved suitcase locks from a digital image does not create a threat to aviation security,” wrote TSA spokesperson Mike England in an email to The Intercept.
“These consumer products are ‘peace of mind’ devices, not part of TSA’s aviation security regime,” England wrote.
“Carried and checked bags are subject to the TSA’s electronic screening and manual inspection. In addition, the reported availability of keys to unauthorized persons causes no loss of physical security to bags while they are under TSA control. In fact, the vast majority of bags are not locked when checked in prior to flight.”
In other words: not our problem.

Snowflakes & Hot House Flowers

Jerry,

You posted in

<https://www.jerrypournelle.com/chaosmanor/climate-and-el-nio-and-other-matters/>

Climate and El Niño; And other matters

“I have removed by popular request a picture of the celebration of the attack on America on 911 2001.”

I did not think your readership had so many snowflakes and hot house flowers.

What is next? Trigger warnings?

Regards, Charles Adams, Bellevue, NE

war equals refugees

Dr. Pournelle,
Another correspondent objected to my scenario, written a week to ten days ago, where I attempted to point out that Russia is in position to intervene in the Mid-East.
Mine was one of a series of e-mails that were intended to show that the future is still uncertain, and based around several ideas, one being that a SAC-like deterrent force evolved to counter Stalin in the 40’s would not be appropriate today, nor might it be directed at Russia. Is it even possible that Russia will be a point of stability?
Since I wrote those, Russia has deployed military assets to support Assad in Syria — basically, Putin (sometimes referred to — by me — as Czar Vladimir I) has picked a side.
The U.S. and Europe did not pick a side in Syria. Now both are receiving refugees. Now Vlad I can set the pace. He can also leverage his position in Syria to guarantee refugees do not leave, possibly endearing himself to Europe, or at least solidifying his political position in Eastern Ukraine as quid pro quo.
Vlad I has had a successful record, given a certain definition of success, with dealing with unrest from his internal Muslim population. One wonders if he is ruthless and focused enough to take that show on the road.
Russia could guarantee Turkey’s Southern border while the latter settles its internal conflicts, and thereby insert the point of the wedge to break up NATO.
Russia could guarantee Greece’s debt, driving the wedge in further while consolidating its own majority ownership of the Black Sea.
Russia could continue South, bringing Lebanon and Gaza under its influence, thereby becoming Israel’s protector. Perhaps Vlad I will also use his imperial ambitions and position to influence Tehran?
I don’t think I’m advocating a war, just observing current events, obvious capabilities, and apparent intentions, although admittedly from my own somewhat jaded perspective. As I think I said, my “predictions” were likely to be wrong and not really intended as such, but even if 10% were potentially true, the new strategy will have to be much different from that of 60-70 years ago. If Russia becomes a stabilizing influence, a strategy of containment might be counter-productive. If there is no NATO, nothing says that EU will be a U.S. ally. If enough E.U. countries begin to chafe under what is essentially the direction of the now combined France and Germany, how long will it stand as an alliance?
Putin is already demonstrably un-intimidated by the new brinkmanship, and responded to Secretary Kerry’s (oh, so obviously empty) threat to deploy U.S. nukes to Poland by threatening to use tactical nukes to defend the “breakaway” portion of Ukraine. The old deterrence is broken – do you wonder what the new one will be like? I can’t think of any ways that it will be pretty, or peaceful.
The e-mail discussion did inspire me to write up some of my ideas and many of your words into a science fiction short story, submitted for TWBW volume 10. Perhaps it will be good enough for publication, but perhaps not.
Regardless of my advocacy (it wasn’t) for, or opposition to violent conflict, it is simple observation that there will be war — heck, there already is. I’m pretty certain I didn’t start it, but to ignore it would be, at minimum, silly. As would be the position that U.S. foreign policy since the millennium has had nothing to do with creating the current situation; I think that the other correspondent and I might agree on that.
-d

We can agree on your titular premise. I see Putin as a PanSlavic Patriot, interested in breaking encirclement and other traditional concerns of Russia; and his interests don’t particularly conflict with ours except when we choose that path as Clinton did in the Balkans. I, like a lot of the ruling class, have considerable sentimental attachment to the Baltic Republics, but I also have a realistic view of Eastern European affairs, which we have little business justifying involvement. We have common interests with Putin in providing Middle Easter stability and safety for Christians and Jews in that area. Call it common interests of Western Civilization.

Of course Liberalism remains a philosophy of consolation for the West as it commits suicide.

Tommy

By Rudyard Kipling

I went into a public-‘ouse to get a pint o’ beer,
The publican ‘e up an’ sez, “We serve no red-coats here.”
The girls be’ind the bar they laughed an’ giggled fit to die,
I outs into the street again an’ to myself sez I:

O it’s Tommy this, an’ Tommy that, an’ “Tommy, go away”;
But it’s “Thank you, Mister Atkins”, when the band begins to play,
The band begins to play, my boys, the band begins to play,
O it’s “Thank you, Mister Atkins”, when the band begins to play.

I went into a theatre as sober as could be,
They gave a drunk civilian room, but ‘adn’t none for me;
They sent me to the gallery or round the music-‘alls,
But when it comes to fightin’, Lord! they’ll shove me in the stalls!

For it’s Tommy this, an’ Tommy that, an’ “Tommy, wait outside”;
But it’s “Special train for Atkins” when the trooper’s on the tide,
The troopship’s on the tide, my boys, the troopship’s on the tide,
O it’s “Special train for Atkins” when the trooper’s on the tide.

Yes, makin’ mock o’ uniforms that guard you while you sleep
Is cheaper than them uniforms, an’ they’re starvation cheap;
An’ hustlin’ drunken soldiers when they’re goin’ large a bit
Is five times better business than paradin’ in full kit.

Then it’s Tommy this, an’ Tommy that, an’ “Tommy, ‘ow’s yer soul?”
But it’s “Thin red line of ‘eroes” when the drums begin to roll,
The drums begin to roll, my boys, the drums begin to roll,
O it’s “Thin red line of ‘eroes” when the drums begin to roll.

We aren’t no thin red ‘eroes, nor we aren’t no blackguards too,
But single men in barricks, most remarkable like you;
An’ if sometimes our conduck isn’t all your fancy paints,
Why, single men in barricks don’t grow into plaster saints;

While it’s Tommy this, an’ Tommy that, an’ “Tommy, fall be’ind”,
But it’s “Please to walk in front, sir”, when there’s trouble in the wind,
There’s trouble in the wind, my boys, there’s trouble in the wind,
O it’s “Please to walk in front, sir”, when there’s trouble in the wind.

You talk o’ better food for us, an’ schools, an’ fires, an’ all:
We’ll wait for extry rations if you treat us rational.
Don’t mess about the cook-room slops, but prove it to our face
The Widow’s Uniform is not the soldier-man’s disgrace.

For it’s Tommy this, an’ Tommy that, an’ “Chuck him out, the brute!”
But it’s “Saviour of ‘is country” when the guns begin to shoot;
An’ it’s Tommy this, an’ Tommy that, an’ anything you please;
An’ Tommy ain’t a bloomin’ fool — you bet that Tommy sees!

http://www.poetryloverspage.com/poets/kipling/tommy.html

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.