Progress of a sort; and a mixed bag. Fortunate Dragon and Castle Bravo

Chaos Manor View, Tuesday, January 12, 2016

“This is the most transparent administration in history.”

Barrack Obama

Liberalism is a philosophy of consolation for Western Civilization as it commits suicide.

bubbles

If current rate of improvement continues, I should be up to working by Saturday.

Roberta has finished the antibiotics for pneumonia, but hasn’t recovered any strength. It’s not likely I had pneumonia, but I might as well have; I still do a lot of mouth breathing. But Sudafed and Tylenol have got me through even though I haven’t done any work. Recovering is slow. So that’s where we are.

There’s a lot going on, and I think my head works all right, but mit die energy es ist nicht. And my typing is clumsier than usual. Spell checking and autocorrect keep me from looking like a complete idiot – or am I not allowed to use that word any more? I get confused.

I have not done much with my stories, and I am deep into inequality, productivity, and IQ ,but I don’t trust myself to write the essay in my present condition.

But the good news is that the symptoms are all going in the right direction.

bubbles

State of the Union tonight. We’ll get lots of Hope and Change. I can’t wait.

bubbles

Perhaps of interest

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/11/24/german-professor-nasa-fiddled-climate-data-unbelievable-scale/

 

And perhaps not.  I have had no time to chase it down.

bubbles

The subject of Cherenkov Radiation, which is caused when charged particles are going faster than the media speed of light, came up in an online conversation about something else. The first comment is from a TVA engineer (retired).

With regard to Cherenkov Radiation, I got to observe it once at Sequoyah Nuclear Plant in the Unit 1 containment during a refuel cycle. We had the head off the vessel and it was under 20 or 30 feet of water. I was kind of neat, but it took so long to dress out and go through radiation procedures I decided once was enough to witness this type of Radiation.

Uncle Timmy

Really? I got to see it in high school when we toured a reactor plant. They took us though the…I guess you’d call it the “back room” where they had the spent rods stored in a “swimming pool” and you could see the Cerenkov radiation around the spent rods. But we didn’t have to do anything special.

Makes me wonder if we all got irradiated. Supposedly we were told it was safe because the rods were SPENT. We were NOT allowed in the main reactor room even though that particular reactor was down for maintenance. I dunno.

Cerenkov blue is my favorite color. It’s also where I got Skye Chadwick’s reaction in the Displaced Detective books.

(BTW for those not in nuclear stuff, there are two ways to spell the name. Americanized with ordinary letters is “Cherenkov.” European, especially if you have a C with the little caret in your font, is “Čerenkov.” I tend to swap up.)

Stephanie Osborn

I saw Cherenkov radiation in the storage pools in San Onofre; I was there as a journalist on assignment working on an energy story for American Legion magazine, and I got my friend Congressman Craig Hosmer to get me a VIP tour of the reactor and power plant. I had to wear a radiation detector badge — a square of film sealed in dark plastic so no light contamination, If it developed dark I’d have been overexposed. But other than a hard hat I don’t recall any other protective clothing. I suspect that TVA was a lot more cautious with employees? Obviously the tour did not include the containment where the reactors were; these pools held only spent rods. We went back to the control room after going through the plant. The article, from the 70’s, is probably archived somewhere on line. America’s Looming Power Shortage. I’m not up to searching for it, but I’d bet it’s out there. Half the words I type need correcting, and I just got up from a nap.

bubbles

I am so looking forward to operational railguns…

While the U.S. Navy had announced last year that it would take a prototype railgun to sea onboard the expeditionary fast transport USNS Trenton (JHSV-5) in 2016, the service may have to scupper those plans.

If the Navy does take the railgun out to sea on a fast transport, it will be in 2017 at the earliest. In lieu of testing the prototype rail gun in an at-sea environment, the Navy might instead proceed directly to developing an operational weapon system.

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/us-navy-railgun-tests-“blow-the-top-mountain”-14869

John Harlow

bubbles

WOW signal likely explained

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn28747-famous-wow-signal-might-have-been-from-comets-not-aliens/
Stephanie Osborn

“The Interstellar Woman of Mystery”
http://www.Stephanie-Osborn.com

One fewer mystery to worry about.

bubbles

“Even though it’s not me that’s the yellow guy, your officers are going to treat whoever comes out of that house in his boxer shorts as the yellow guy.”

<https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/the-new-way-police-are-surveilling-you-calculating-your-threat-score/2016/01/10/e42bccac-8e15-11e5-baf4-bdf37355da0c_story.html>

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Roland Dobbins

bubbles

Strange New State of Hydrogen Created

http://m.livescience.com/53292-new-state-of-hydrogen-created.html

J

bubbles

“Until now, a scientific advance like this was a dream of science fiction, but it could open up many new applications tomorrow.”

<http://www.upi.com/Science_News/2016/01/08/Can-we-use-magnetic-fields-to-make-and-manipulate-gravity/6791452285704/>

<http://arxiv.org/abs/1504.00333>

<http://arxiv.org/pdf/1504.00333v3>

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Roland Dobbins

bubbles

Politics and not just money
The Missouri legislature is considering additional reporting requirements for lobbyists:
http://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2016/01/chartered-accountancy
Puns are committed in the comments.
Good health to you and yours, because ’tis the season to be snotty,

Tim Harness.

bubbles

Russia’s anti-satellite program.

Polyus.

<http://www.astronautix.com/craft/polyus.htm>

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Roland Dobbins

bubbles

China comments that David Couvillon forwarded
The comments about China that David Couvillon forwarded aren’t quite accurate. It is not in fact the case that “China has not, ever since the Mongols in the 13th century attempted to invade Vietnam, has China attempted to invade or attack any country in Asia”. Even if we discount the Chinese 20th century invasion of Tibet and 19th century invasion of Sinkiang and Eastern Turkestan (Kashgaria) on the grounds that those were merely rebellious parts of China (which their inhabitants would dispute), we would similarly have to discount the Chinese 18th century invasion of Burma (Myanmar) – even though that invasion failed and so the facts on the ground today can’t be squared with the Chinese claims.
There is also “Historically, Korea has been one kingdom, one country”. Well … it depends how deep we are looking into these things, and in that part of the world deep history matters. Historically, Korea was once three kingdoms, one of which overcame and absorbed the rest – but there is some evidence, not altogether persuasive, that Japan’s ethnicity, culture, language and/or system of rule derived from one of the others, at least in part, which if true would make current relations and interactions between Japan and Korea stem all the way back to that deep history.
Yours sincerely,
P.M.Lawrence

Thoughts on the Korean bomb

Hi Dr. Pournelle,

COL-R Couvillon’s correspondent, Dr. Samuel Kupper, may be a very good source for the purpose of understanding Chinese culture.  However, he seems to have some difficulty with facts.  There were a number of… shall we say interesting representations… in his thoughts on the Korean bomb.  However, I just couldn’t let the following whopper go without comment:

“China has not, ever since the Mongols in the 13th century attempted to invade Vietnam, has China[sic] attempted to invade or attack any country in Asia.”

Tibet, 1959?  India, 1962?  Vietnam, 1979?  The same China which regularly threatens to annex areas which are the internationally-recognized territory of neighboring nations? 

Or:

“In the United States, we have forgotten. We have never taught the real history of what happened. We have not taught Corregidor, the Bataan Death March, or the use of chemical and biological weapons against captured Americans.”

Dr. Kupper must have attended, and sent his children to, some very poor schools indeed.  I don’t think there’s many Americans that have never heard of the Bataan Death March, or at least have some vague idea that the Japanese committed atrocities.  Netflix seems to be full of historical documentaries about them.  Perhaps that does not have as great an impact on present-day U.S. policy as the government of China would like, but that’s not the same thing.

In short, Dr. Kupper for the most part appears to be simply regurgitating PRC propaganda, not setting forth an honest evaluation of the situation in Asia.

Neil

I’m in no condition to comment on either comment, but I have met few school children who knew of the Bataan Death March

Of course the documents exist, but in California, at least, it would be racist and jingoist to talk about Corregidor and Bataan. We do teach about the US internment camps. I can practically guarantee that Japanese and Korean children en masse know about comfort women, but have never heard of the subject being discussed in schools.

bubbles

Castle Bravo
Jerry

Castle Bravo went wrong because the fusion fuel was a mixture of lithium 6 and lithium 7. The designers considered only the lithium 6 to be active in the fusion process and hence calculated a yield around 5MT. What was not understood by the designers was that, under the conditions of the detonation, the lithium 7 was rapidly converted to lithium 6, which quite obligingly fused, too, sending the yield to around 15MT. As you said, not a healthy outcome for the testers.
There was lot of nuclear physics that was not well understood in those days, but a lot was learned VERY quickly…

K

Castle Bravo was the nuclear test of a hydrogen bomb. It produced far more fallout than expected, and was expected to yield 6 megatons; it actually yielded far more. The Fortunate Dragon, a Japanese fishing boat, was hit by fallout and a crewman was killed. Fallout rained on many other islands. This was March, 1954.

Jerry:

I would suggest that people exercise some caution in analyzing the alleged NK Nuke test based on early US nuclear weapons developments.

Traditionally, US nukes are manufactured using either enriched Uranium-235 or Pu-239 as fissile material. Uranium was enriched using the gaseous diffusion process and high purity Plutonium was bred in special reactors where unenriched Uranium was irradiated for only a few weeks to limit the concentration of undesirable isotopes such as Pu-238 which is hundreds of times more radioactive than Pu-239. More problematic are excessive concentrations of Pu-240 and heavier isotopes which undergo spontaneous fission. At too high a concentration, the neutron flux produced by these isotopes causes the release of significant fission energy before the fissile core can be compressed into a critical mass. Even with bomb grade Plutonium, the neutron flux is high enough to require the more sophisticated implosion design rather than the simpler gun assembly that can be used with Uranium bombs.

Much of the consternation over North Korea’s nuclear program has been inspired by their reprocessing of spent fuel rods from their nuclear reactors. One is tempted to suggest that this concern is excessive because the Plutonium in spent nuclear fuel has very high concentrations of Pu-238 as well as Pu-240 and heavier isotopes. The one successful test by US weapons labs of a device using reactor waste grade Plutonium was reputed to have been very low yield and required a device the mass and volume of a railroad locomotive. However; given the proliferation of gas centrifuge technology which was perfected by Pakistan then aggressively marketed to rogue regimes such as Iran and Libya by A Q Kahn, it is plausible that North Korea might be employing gas centrifuges to enrich Pu-239.

Consider the physics. While the mass differential between Pu-239 and the most critical undesirable isotopes is smaller than the mass differential between U-235 and U-238, the level of enrichment that is required is much smaller. A two or three level cascade of centrifuges should suffice to produce super pure Pu-239 which US nuclear weapons designers can only dream of. Given the fact that Pu-239 has a much higher fission cross section for prompt neutrons than Uranium-235, it would be possible to construct much smaller, much lower yield devices using the simpler gun assembly design. While not quite as compact as the devices that could be constructed from certain Californium isotopes, such Plutonium devices would be an impressive advance in nuclear weapons technology.

While NK might be claiming credit for a natural earthquake, I would not ignore the possibility that they have tested a device that utilizes super pure Pu-239 in a gun assembly device that can in turn be used to initiate a fusion bomb. Since the yield of fusion weapons can be increased almost arbitrarily high levels simply by enlarging the assembly of Lithium-Deuteride fusion fuel, it is possible to confirm the function of the weapon by testing the fission trigger in combination with a low yield fusion component.

The bottom line is that it is quite possible that NK just tested a nuclear device that has such a low yield because it is in some respects more advanced than US weapons.

James Crawford=

bubbles

Only $299 to become a wirehead.

<http://www.engadget.com/2016/01/08/nervana-hands-on/>

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Roland Dobbins

Send for ARM…

bubbles

‘Trained as Marxist-Leninists, China’s leaders should know that the contradictions within their confused system of state-controlled capitalism are heightening, well beyond their capabilities to control.’

<https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-ham-fisted-government-moves-making-china-gyrate/2016/01/07/e89a9738-b579-11e5-a76a-0b5145e8679a_story.html>

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Roland Dobbins

I do not think Marxist economics is a required belief in China today. They are pragmatists of the first order, I would think.

bubbles

yuk

The Bacteria That May Be Causing Your Nasty Cold:

http://www.fox29.com/news/69957959-story
Stephanie Osborn

“The Interstellar Woman of Mystery”
http://www.Stephanie-Osborn.com

I just want it to go away.

bubbles

Microwave Thermal Rockets.

<http://parkinresearch.com/microwave-thermal-rockets/>

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Roland Dobbins

bubbles

Wait, I thought the science was settled . . . ?

<http://gizmodo.com/weve-been-completely-wrong-about-how-cats-get-their-bla-1751328727>

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Roland Dobbins

bubbles

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

bubbles

clip_image002

bubbles

The North Korean Weapon; Chaos at Chaos Manor; and other matters


Chaos Manor View, Thursday, January 07, 2016

“This is the most transparent administration in history.”

Barrack Obama

Liberalism is a philosophy of consolation for Western Civilization as it commits suicide.

bubbles

It has been a fairly time consuming week at Chaos Manor, and this will be a chaotic post. Roberta turned out to have walking pneumonia, and while the anti-biotics are slowly dealing with it, the operative word is slowly. She has to eat gluten free, and all things labeled gluten free aren’t – or at least produce the effects of gluten, which is pretty grim with a nearly bed-ridden pneumonia patient who doesn’t want to eat much to begin with. Add to that, yesterday I got a bad cold – I won’t call it flu – which keeps me wanting to lie down and nap, or read a book, or watch daytime television, or do almost anything that doesn’t require thinking, and it gets grim. We’re climbing out of the pit, she sees her regular doctor tomorrow—that’s complicated because while I think I can drive I haven’t since the stroke a year ago and I sure don’t want to try it just now. Fortunately Michael can come drive us to get to the doctor. And the neighbors have been great. So by and large we’re getting through. Enough on that; but it is why I haven’t had a lot to say here at year’s end.

bubbles

Then there’s the North Korean weapons test, which seems to have been under 10 kilotons. That’s actually hard to do. The easy way to make a fission bomb yields detectably more than 10 kt and it squibs if you don’t get that much. To make a fusion bomb you generally need a fission primary, and that’s going to be more that 10 kt. It is possible to get as low as one kt or even lower with the right geometry – think Davy Crockett – but it isn’t easy. In fact it’s damned hard.

There’s some speculation that this is an attempted enhanced EMP weapon. There’s other speculation. Add to that that I have never worked in weapon design, and the last time I seriously needed to know about the minutia of nuclear weapons was more than thirty years ago, and you will understand that I am not going to speculate. We know that North Korea tested something, and they call it a sophisticated fission weapon; what they tested was low yield, and the last time I looked, low yield was harder to do than higher yields: particularly lower than 10 kt. I’ll look up the trinity yield when Time Warner gives me Internet access again. Time Warner Cable at 1600 every day slows to an effective halt for about fifteen minutes; one day they’ll have competition, but they seem to have an in with the City Council. Hardly astonishing. LA isn’t Chicago; in Chicago things sometimes work despite the successful lobbyists. But that’s another subject.

Anyway I’ve got Internet again. Trinity, the first nuclear test, was about 20 kt; Hiroshima’s about 15 kt. This what you get with a uranium weapon. Nagasaki was similar although the detonator mechanism was more complex; it was a plutonium weapon. Both were of course fission weapons.

bubbles

Gigglefits time
Date: Thu, 7 Jan 2016 14:38:09 -0500

This is definitely worth reading. Scary underneath, funny on the surface.

Read North Korea’s Positively Batshit Insane Statement On Its Hydrogen Bomb:

http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/read-north-koreas-positively-batshit-insane-statement-o-1751339665
Stephanie Osborn

“The Interstellar Woman of Mystery”
http://www.Stephanie-Osborn.com

…the comments have some interesting remarks also. Given the low yield of the device, the USA and allies are disputing the claim of an H bomb. Commentary suggests that indeed it may have been an H bomb test, where the second stage — the actual fusion part — failed, and only the standard nuke first stage went off.

This makes a great deal of sense.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/07/world/asia/north-korea-hydrogen-bomb-claim-reactions.html?_r=0

“The seismic wave left by the explosion was smaller than what most experts would expect from the detonation of a true thermonuclear weapon. Some experts said it was possible the North had increased, or boosted, the yield of a more traditional device by using tritium, a common technique, in the 70-year history of nuclear weapons.

“A South Korean Defense Ministry official, who requested anonymity to speak about a national security matter, said Thursday that the ministry believed that even if the device was a boosted fission bomb, the test was probably a failure. The explosive yield was even smaller than that from the North’s last and third nuclear test, in early 2013, he said.

“‘Even a boosted fission bomb produces a yield bigger than this, so we don’t think this is a successful test of a boosted fission bomb either,’ he added.”

Other sources are saying the yield was in the vicinity of only ~6kT. The USA’s first standard nuke test, the Trinity test, was more than 3x that, at 20kT. So whatever they blew, wasn’t even a very big standard nuke, and I seriously doubt it was, in fact, a thermonuclear fusion explosion.

Stephanie Osborn

I know little about weapon design, but assuming the primary goes off, it is my understanding that you get about 20 KT whether you want it or not; low kt weapons are tough to make.  And if the secondary goes off you will get about 300 kt unless you’re pretty good at weapons design geometry. They are not likely to be that good.  But this is all just stuff I think I picked up in the 60’s and it may be totally obsolete now, or never true in the first place.

Jerry Pournelle

Then either the Manhattan Project overestimated critical mass (which is possible; I haven’t looked into that — Jim, do you know anything there?), or we have a really strange situation. 

I suppose it’s possible that NK simply piled up standard explosives and detonated it in order to be able to make some wild claims.

I do know that when they changed the fuel for a thermo, the first test with the new stuff, Castle Bravo, went WAY beyond what they’d calculated for yield, because it was a far more efficient reaction with the new, more stable fuel, and it nearly was a Very Bad Thing (TM) as a result.
Stephanie Osborn

Don’t worry about the 20 kt.  My memory doesn’t work so we’ll.  I do know it’s complex as hell to get less than ten kt; I’d bank on that.  We did a lot of gaming Davy Crockett, and it scared hell out of everyone.  But the minimum for a fusion is high, unless your designers are very good; at least that’s the way I remember it.

Jerry Pournelle

Chaos Manor

Well, that’s kind of my recollection too. And while they might have inched the critical mass value down since the Trinity test, I don’t think it went down by more than a factor of 3. I know that’s probably classified though readily calculable from open source; I just never have bothered.

And yes, given that the igniter for a fusion bomb is a standard nuke, you’re gonna get significant yield. Whatever they got over there, at 6kT it wasn’t any fusion bomb. Not a successful one anyhow.

Jim’s idea of an EMP device seems reasonable to me.
Stephanie Osborn

“The Interstellar Woman of Mystery”

bubbles

Thoughts on the Korean Bomb

You may be interested in the attached.  Sam gave me permission to share – his credentials are:

http://outskirtspress.com/DrChinaSpeaks

http://www.chinaresourcesgroup.com/about.html

s/f

Couv

David Couvillon
Colonel, U.S. Marine Corps Reserve, Retired.; 
Former Governor of Wasit Province, Iraq; 
Righter of Wrongs; Wrong most of the time; 
Distinguished Expert, TV remote control; 
Chef de Hot Dog Excellence;  Avoider of Yard Work

While the headlines are all blaring news about North Korea’s recent test of a hydrogen bomb, and politicians fill the airwaves with bluster and inflamed rhetoric, it seems that no one is taking the time or making the effort to consider this within a broader issue of foreign policy. In this age of Twitter and reflexive responses, perhaps this is the new standard we should expect for the future.

The following are my thoughts, and that is all I profess them to be – my thoughts as one who has spent his entire life studying about, traveling to, and teaching about Asia, in general, and China, in particular.

The current crisis or situation is symptomatic of a deeper problem with U.S. foreign policy, to wit – we have none. We view events and situations in isolation rather than as part of a larger foreign policy construct based on our own national interests, and then on the broader issues of trying to create a stable world environment. And, the latter, a stable world environment is all we can try to hope for – we are not and cannot be peace keepers of the world, and cannot predicate a foreign policy on a desire to have all other nations and peoples of the world emulate our culture and political system.

On the one hand, in regard to China, we want them to assume the leadership in curtailing and controlling North Korea. On the other hand, while still wanting them as a partner for stability in Asia, we castigate China and are attempting a policy of economic and military containment as we view China as our enemy. We cannot have it both ways. Either China is a strategic partner of ours in creating a stable world order, while recognizing their own national interests, or they are our enemy or potential enemy which allows the military industrial complex in the United States to spend billions, if not trillions of dollars on military expenditures.

The historic relationship between China and Korea is long, storied, and predicated on one simple premise. China needs to protect its borders, specifically along the China-North Korean border, and furthermore, cannot allow any regime in Korea, or any foreign country to be based in Korea who view China as an enemy or a potential source of problems. As the Korean War demonstrated, and also demonstrated our own ignorance of this simple fact, the Chinese did intervene to prevent American domination of the Korean Peninsula. This intervention was based solely on China’s national interest. It was not in support of the Russians or Kim Il Sung, the North Korean leader. China would not and could not tolerate the Korean Peninsula to be controlled either directly by the United States or indirectly through our puppet, Sygman Rhee.

Flash forward to the present time. Not only has the United States supported the rearmament of Japan, but we have prodded the current Japanese government to “reinterpret” the Japanese constitution that will allow for Japanese armed forces to be deployed outside of Japan. We have support Prime Minister Abe in his rearmament of Japan. What is our purpose and what goal were we trying to achieve ?

The rearmament of Japan is simply part of our cold war policy of containment. As the United States government surveyed the situation in Asia, there is only one country that we believed could act as our military ally and provide military support for whatever military actions might be needed in the future. No other nation in Asia has the interest, the will, or the resources to develop a military capable of allying with the United States in a potential future conflict with China. Again, our ignorance of history and understanding the feelings of the people of Asia, has blinded us into developing a counter-productive strategy.

All of the nations of East and Southeast Asia suffered to an incredible degree under the Japanese during World War II. And, for the nations of Asia, World War II began, not with Pearl Harbor, but with the Japanese invasion of China in 1937. China has not, ever since the Mongols in the 13th century attempted to invade Vietnam, has China attempted to invade or attack any country in Asia. Japan did. Japan invaded, attacked, robbed, pillaged, killed, and attempted to subjugate every single nation in East and Southeast Asia beginning in the late 19th century. It began with the war in Korea between China and Japan, broadened to include the Japanese-Russian War of 1904-1905 over control of Northeast China and Korea. Given their success in these wars, the Japanese military was emboldened to begin the quest to control all of Asia under the Greater Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere. A euphemism for Japanese domination and dictatorship over all of Asia. To this day, no one is Asia has forgotten the Japanese atrocities. In the United States, we have forgotten. We have never taught the real history of what happened. We have not taught Corregidor, the Bataan Death March, or the use of chemical and biological weapons against captured Americans.

Perhaps even more than China, Korea suffered under Japan and is extremely fearful of a rearmed and militarized Japan. Our assurances regarding Japan’s rearmament fall on deaf ears. No one, absolutely no one in Asia believes what the United States has said about Japan not posing a military threat. Again, history is instructive. The cornerstone of U.S. foreign policy in the 19th and 20th centuries was that the United States guaranteed – absolutely guaranteed, the administrative and geographic integrity of China. It was contained in our Open Door policy and re-stated in the Washington Naval Conference and the London Naval Conference and Agreements in 1922 and 1930. In return for allowing Japanese naval superiority in the Pacific, based on the number of warships allowed, everyone pledged to protect and guarantee China’s sovereignty. When Japan invaded Northeast China (Manchuria) in 1931, the United States did absolutely nothing to stop Japan. Not even sanctions. We continued to sell Japan scrap metal and oil. Given that history, how can anyone trust the word of the United States again in regard to Asia?

Historically, Korea has been one kingdom, one country. The division into two countries along the rough outlines of the 38th parallel was the result of a fateful and ignominious decision at the Yalta Conference between President Roosevelt and Josef Stalin. Focusing on getting Russia into the war against Japan, and countering Stalin’s demand to accept the surrender of all of Japan’s forces in Korea, Roosevelt agreed to split the difference. North of the 38th parallel was for Russia, South of the 38th parallel was for the United States. It was merely a line of demarcation for accepting the surrender of Japan’s armed forces. No mention and no thought was given to the future of Korea after Japan would surrender. Without thought of Korea’s history or its future, a line based on expediency and compromise was achieved that subsequently led to the Korean War with an armistice and demilitarized zone dividing Korea.

South Korea fears North Korea. But, it fears Japan even more. The specter of a rearmed and remilitarized Japan is the cause of greater consternation and fear in the long run. Given the presence of the U.S. Army in South Korea, they do not fear a North Korean invasion. The South is opposed to the nuclear program of the North. But, on the one hand, they are impotent to do anything about it. On the other hand, I suspect they have mixed feelings. A nuclear North Korea is the best deterrent for Korea against a remilitarized Japan.

North Korea is more complex. They initially developed their military might in response to the U.S. military’s continued presence in South Korea and a fear of an invasion from South Korea to unify Korea. With Japan’s rearmament and remilitarization program, their fear has been broadened to include Japan. Given their history, their fear does not need to be rational in order for it to be real. They also have a love/hate relationship with China. For most of Korea’s history, it fell within China’s domain of cultural sphere of influence. Until recently, the Korean language was written with Chinese characters. The King of Korea sent envoys to recognize the Emperor of China as the cultural leader. Chinese influence was dominant in Korea’s Court. Koreans were and are knowledgeable about China’s involvement in Korean politics and history. And, in recent history, they know that China’s intervention in the Korean War saved North Korea from being occupied by the South Koreans and Americans. And, at present, China is their main and major trading partner. Bursting with nationalism and national pride, North Korea understands it is beholden to China for trade, but, at the same time, does not want to be seen or viewed as a puppet of China. The North Koreans are fiercely independent and do not want China to interfere or influence North Korea’s politics or policies. The more pressure that China would place on North Korea, the greater the resistance. Although beholden to China for trade and the inflow of needed goods and access to foreign capital, national pride – nationalism, would prevent North Korea from caving into any Chinese demands for nuclear disarmament.

The situation in China is even more complex and the Chinese government has to try and balance competing national interests. It is China’s policy to support a non-nuclear Korea. But, how far will they go to achieve this goal and to what extent is it secondary to China’s other goals? China is trying to position itself as a stabilizing, non-threatening force in Asia, and as a major power in world politics and on the world stage. They project themselves as a model for modernization different from the Western model. The Chinese are also proud and fiercely nationalistic. The Chinese look at one’s actions, and not at the words which are spoken. Thus, while the United States talks about cooperation with China, our actions present a different view. From their perspective, the United States is following a policy of military containment. The United States has supported, and indeed, encouraged the military re-armament of Japan, a new “interpretation” of the Japanese Constitution which allows for Japan to be militarily involved outside of Japan’s borders, and just made a massive sale of arms to Taiwan. We intentionally provoke China by sending our warships and planes into territorial waters claimed by China and intrude into Chinese air space with our planes. The U.S. military industrial complex needs a “bogeyman”, a foreseeable enemy, in order to justify the massive expenditure of funds and weapons that can only be used in traditional combat situations akin to our World Wars. With the collapse of the Soviet Union. China is the only available “bogeyman”. Yet, China is no threat to the United States.

Economically, we are trying to do the same thing. We are trying to create a greater Asia free trade zone but one that specifically excludes China. Nice try – dumb and foolish. All that is accomplishing is reinforcing in China the idea of a United States led containment policy which will never work. U.S. trade with the rest of Asia is miniscule compared to China’s trade with Asia. No economic or foreign policy objective is obtainable by excluding China, and all that is being done is to reinforce in China’s mind the containment policy of the U.S.

Korea presents a complex problem. China needs and wants an ally along its border on the North. North Korea is that ally. China is fearful that unless it can exert some control over North Korea, it might engage in some stupid and irrational act that would lead to military invasion of North Korea and the collapse of the North Korean government to be replaced by one that is subservient to the United States. That would be intolerable to China. That would be inviting Korea War II. China needs to convince North Korea that it will protect North Korea against any foreign invasion and to protect North Korea in return for North Korea surrendering their nuclear program. But, would North Korea trust China, and would an agreement of that sort lead to China’s involvement in North Korean politics beyond that which is acceptable? Compounding everything is that China needs to be seen as operating on the basis of their own national interest and their own foreign policy and not being a puppet of the United States and to do the bidding of the United States as people like Donald Trump and Obama’s mouthpiece, Secretary Kerry demand.

The North Korean nuclear problem and its possible solution is symptomatic of the larger issue of the relationship between the United States and China. The reality is that these are the two largest economies in the world and financially, the two most powerful countries in the world. It is in neither of these two countries national interest to continue to feel there is antagonism between them, and not in their national interests to be devoting resources to increasing military power that can only be used in costly land war. These two nations have to learn to accept each other and work together to provide for a more stable international environment. And, unfortunately, the United States and its actions is the major impediment to developing a constructive relationship based on mutual respect and understanding of each other’s national interests.

I’m no expert on Korea; I do think I understand a bit of their attitude. When we toured the throne/reception room in Seoul, we noted that the throne was in the middle of a large room. The foreign ambassadors who wanted to speak to the king stood under a canopy/awning at the entrance.

China apparently forbade the display of a dragon by the Korean king; that would have been an intolerable assertion of independence. The Chinese ambassador could report, truthfully, that he observed no dragon in the throne room. Of course he did not. The dragon was on the wall behind him, but he could not see it because of the canopy.

So the Korean royalty could assert their claim to independence by displaying a dragon in the throne room. The Chinese ambassador could report that he saw no dragon. Since Chinese officials were presumably intelligent, they must have known that the dragon was there, and must have reported that to the Chinese Emperor. The Emperor chose not to pay official attention. The Korean king must have known that. The Emperor must have known he knew…

Perhaps that helps in understanding Chinese/Korean history. Sometime I think it helps me. Other times I find myself going “beedee beedee beedee…”

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CDR Phillip E. Pournelle, USN, quoted by Glenn Reynolds in USA Today on the need for smaller surface combatants.

Reynolds is quoting from CDR Pournelle’s recent Proceedings article (<http://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2015-07/deadly-future-littoral-sea-control>),

which is also included in _There Will Be War: Volume X (<http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B019KYLOKQ?tag=chaosmanor-20>).

<http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2016/01/06/us-navy-fleet-ship-size-aircraft-carriers-pournelle-column/78238004/>

—————————————

Roland Dobbins

That paper seems to have been widely read. I had good reason to include it in There Will Be War…

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Newt Gingrich: New Words for a New World

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/12/07/newt-gingrich-new-words-new-world/

“We are living in a world rapidly evolving away from the mental constructs and language of the last 375 years. These ideas can be traced to the Treaty of Westphalia ending the 30 Years War in 1648 and Grotius proposal of a system of International Law in the same era. The ideas were then extended through the development of state warfare culminating in the Napoleonic Wars.
This intellectual framework was applied and reapplied through two World Wars and the Cold War. It is the framework within which academic and bureaucratic careers were made and are still being made.
It is now a framework which distorts reality, hides from uncomfortable facts, and cripples our ability to develop an effective national security and foreign policy.”

I expect you’ll have already seen this.      Worth reading, not terribly long, points out some of the things I ranted about.  I would have added that it was clear that Bush knew we wouldn’t be allowed to use Christianity and  he attempted to substitute Democracy, but opposition from our media and other issues prevented that from working. 

I concur that whether through ignorance or refusal to see what is in front of us, we have utterly failed to comprehend not only the nature of the war we are fighting but even that we don’t have a choice because we are the attacked party. 

Instead of the four years discussing Kennan’s thoughts, we’ve spent our years on the Ostrich Theorem, abandoning the prestige and influence we built in the region as if it were our goal to do so. 

In my professional opinion, it would be impossible to come up with a plan better intended to ensure our surrender than what we’ve done, that wouldn’t have been so absurd that it could not be put into effect.  Still, if we haven’t shipped our enemies nukes, we’ve put the same people in charge of the negotiations who managed to allow the North Koreans to develop them. 

The West hasn’t been in such a fix in over 300 years, and it all happened within my lifetime, most of it in the last decade.  Fixing it will be neither cheap nor easy, and we were calling it the Long War in our operations centers before the last day of 2001. 

Graves

Gingrich on this New World Disorder

Jerry,

Your old friend has some thoughts on aspects of the changing world our leaders badly need to rethink. (As opposed to the current political-class trend of rethinking things badly, I’ll add.)

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/12/07/newt-gingrich-new-words-new-world/

Porkypine

It is indeed the Protracted Conflict, and it endures; there is no end of history with final triumph.

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Trans-Plutonian superterran?

<http://www.forbes.com/sites/briankoberlein/2015/12/10/astronomers-find-new-object-possible-super-earth-in-our-solar-system/>

—————————————

Roland Dobbins

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HK 121 – General Purpose German Machine Gun….

OH MY! I thought the old Stirling was good. This is outstanding. I have seen somebody hold two Stirlings, “the gun that took back the Falklands”, one in each hand shot both at once and carve up a watermelon about 25 yards away. This one looks like a person could hold it off hand in one hand and carve his initials in the watermelon.

When will our guys get this? (Never, I suspect.) When will our enemies get this? (Weeks? Months? certainly no longer.)

{O.O} jdow

——– Forwarded Message ——–

would love to have one…..308 is a great round

If you understood the gas operated M16, you knew this was coming someday.

Well, someday is here. This _.308 caliber/7.62mm_ NATO has _less recoil

than a .22 LR_, and far less than the M-16 and M-4. This thing sounds like

a sewing machine. Where is the recoil? Forget the AR-15/M-16 and the M-60

….. this is the new “pig” ! Almost no recoil as well. Just _throw it in

some water to cool it of_f!

This beaut is a real “base of fire” !

Best thing out of Germany since German Beer and the VW ‘Beetle’. Very

Impressive and stable platform. It _can be fired from virtually any

position including standing_. Virtually no muzzle rise with a 7.62!

A friend wrote: As a former machine gunner in an Infantry squad, I am in

awe of these new German machine guns. Good Grief, I would sure hate to be

“down range” facing these weapons. Check the ease in changing the barrels

as well as the very low recoil forces it has. Below is the link to the

4:44min video of the new German Army machine gun demo.

HK 121 – General Purpose Machine Gun

<https://www.youtube.com/embed/5ZZ_IShupic?autoplay=1&autohide=1&showinfo=0&iv_load_policy=3>

German

https://www.youtube.com/embed/5ZZ_IShupic?autoplay=1&autohide=1&showinfo=0&iv_load_policy=3

Gun

at Shot Show

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Who’s Been Killing the Feral Peacocks of Palos Verdes?

[A small bit of ‘adult’ language.]

<http://www.lamag.com/longform/whos-been-killing-the-feral-peacocks-of-palos-verdes/>

—————————————

Roland Dobbins

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Breaking the Spell

Once upon a time, a Witch Doctor was out gathering herbs, when a Raven landed on a nearby tree branch and looked at him. Then the other tribes-people came by. The Hetman said, “There is an evil sorcerer amongst us, he has cast a spell upon us, can you find him?”

The Witch-doctor said, “What kind of spell did he cast?”

“A spell of death and disorder. So every time one of us meets grave misfortune, we search among ourselves for the victim’s enemy.”

“How do you know that person had an enemy?”

“Why else would that person meet grave misfortune? One way or another, we find an enemy, and we kill that person.”

“I see,” said the Witch Doctor. “Thus doubling our death-rate. Have you found the sorcerer?”

“Not yet,” the Hetman admitted, “for misfortunes keep coming.”

“And this blaming of all misfortunes on each other; and this doubling of our death rate; how did you decide these were good ideas?”

The Hetman said, “Why, they came to all of us, all of a sudden. And they made sense, at the time. Nobody asked why.”

The Witch Doctor said, “Then those very ideas are the evil spell that the sorcerer cast upon you. This search for him amongst each other; that itself is the disorder. End the search to end the disorder.”

Lightning flashed across the clear blue sky, the Raven cried “Curses!” and the evil Sorcerer (for it was he) flew away.

Moral: Question assumptions.

Paradoctor

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The Marriages of Power Couples Reinforce Income Inequality –

Jerry

The Marching Morons was published 65 years ago. Each year it rings more and more true:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/27/upshot/marriages-of-power-couples-reinforce-income-inequality.html?_r=1

“These days, an investment banker may marry another investment banker rather than a high school sweetheart, or a lawyer will marry another lawyer, or a prestigious client, rather than a secretary. Whether measured in terms of income or education, there are more so-called power couples today than in the past, one manifestation of a phenomenon known as assortative mating, or more generally the pairing of like with like. These matches are great for those individuals who can build prosperous and happy family alliances, but they also propagate inequality across the generations. Of all the causes behind growing income inequality, in the longer run this development may prove one of the most significant and also one of the hardest to counter. For instance, the achievement gap between children from rich and poor families is higher today than it was 25 years ago, according to a recent study from the Pew Research Center. Furthermore, higher income and educational inequality increase the incentive to seek out a good marriage match, so the process may become self-reinforcing.”

“Money and talent become clustered in high-powered, two-earner families determined to do everything possible to advance the interests of their children. . . . The numbers show that assortative mating really matters. One study indicated that combined family decisions on assortative mating, divorce and female labor supply accounted for about one-third of the increase in income inequality from 1960 to 2005. . . . A study of Denmark by Gustaf Bruze, a researcher at the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm, showed that about half of the expected financial gain of attending college derived not from better job prospects but from the chance to meet and marry a higher-earning spouse.”

“Today, we rightfully reject the idea of eugenics as repugnant, yet we are conducting our own experiments in mating, without much careful thought as to where they will lead. Match.com and Tinder help us find “just the right mate,” according to our prior desires and specifications, with aid from computer algorithms. The real question may be not whether we can reverse some of the less desired effects of assortative mating, but rather just how far the practice will go.”

I’ll bet Cyril Kornbluth could tell him.

Ed

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Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

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Harried but still going; whatever happened to Space Viking Returns?

Chaos Manor View, Sunday, January 03, 2016

“This is the most transparent administration in history.”

Barrack Obama

Liberalism is a philosophy of consolation for Western Civilization as it commits suicide.

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Roberta has the flu and worse; we didn’t get to New Year parties or much of anything else. Recovery is happening, but it’s a bit slow. Fortunately she has my walker to go to the bathroom because I am not able to help. Alex and Eric are off to Los Vegas for CES. Mike Galloway was over to help and drive me to the pharmacy today. As I said, recovery is happening.

Meanwhile I have been reading Hive Mind by Jones, https://www.google.com/search?q=Jones+Hive+Mind&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8 and it is fascinating: nearly all the stuff I thought I knew about IQ but which was dismissed with prejudice by many of the younger experts remains true. There’s more to know, and we understand somewhat less about it than we thought we did, but I knew that long ago.

The higher a nation’s average IQ the richer that nation is; it’s a strong coupling. Individual IQ isn’t so successful in predicting individual success, but we knew that, too. But collectively – think Hari Seldon – it’s a different story. Couple that with Deaton’s The Great Escape http://www.amazon.com/The-Great-Escape-Origins-Inequality/dp/0691165629?tag=chaosmanor-20, a book on diversity, and you have something important in the social “sciences” although I doubt that it’s politically correct enough to get past “Peer” review. Speaking of which, the February 2015 Reason Magazine has an interesting piece on how much of what we scientifically know is false, in part due to peer review.

So I have a lot to contemplate while not having a lot of time at the keyboard (and with my bad typing production is slow), but there is light at the end of the tunnel.

Happy New Year.

Monday: still recovering.  A strong correlation is not a perfect correlation; and we know a lot about what happened in China.  High IQ would predict a higher economic performance in China, but The Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution among other political events had a predictable effect.

 

bubbles

Have a look at this:

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/11/24/german-professor-nasa-fiddled-climate-data-unbelievable-scale/

Most of the climate change stuff is not so much fraud as eagerness to prove and reluctance to question, so that little difference are misinterpreted as significant when the truth is lost in the noise.

Most if it. But there is less and less evidence that we know more than Arrhenius did at the turn of the 19th Century into the Twentieth.

Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get. And we can’t predict weather over a period of years all that well. It froze the Hudson and The Thames in 1700 and 1800. You could grow cattle and vines in Greenland in the Viking era. It has been both warmer and colder in historical times. Thus it was and thus it will be. Maybe we’ll get better at it now.

 

 

Replicability of results — The Grumpy Economist proposes a Demand-based solution

http://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2015/12/secret-data.html

[quote]

So, rather than try to restrict supply and impose censorship, let’s work on demand. If you think that replicability matters, what can you do about it? A lot:

. When a journal with a data policy asks you to referee a paper, check the data and program file. Part of your job is to see that this works correctly.

[end quote]

Followed by many additional suggestions along the same line, to wit:

that those concerned, that lack of supporting data and computer programs constitutes a corruption of science, exert cultural pressure upon the offenders, and thereby stimulate the development of social norms that require making supporting data and computer programs available.

I wish such a solution would work in Climate Science.

Alas, I’m afraid the dominant clique have too firm a stranglehold on the peer-review process, and too firm a political hold on the funding process, in that field.

We’ll probably have to wait until the divergence between the model predictions and reality becomes so blatant that even the politicians who provide the funding realize they’re being sold a bill of goods.

Shall we start a wagering pool, on whether that will happen before the returning glaciers cover New York City?

Hmmm…

On second thought, since the theory is non-disprovable, even the returning glaciers will, somehow, be determined to be caused by anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide.

Rod Montgomery==monty@starfief.com

 

“They’re skating on the Hudson!  In November!”

“I Knew it! Global Warming! When will they learn!  Oh, and ask for another billion to refine our model”

 

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Periodic table’s seventh row finally filled as four new elements are added

http://www.theguardian.com/science/2016/jan/04/periodic-tables-seventh-row-finally-filled-as-four-new-elements-are-added

 

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Russia Says Elon Musk Is ‘Stepping On Our Toes’ – Fortune

Do they give up when they realize they can’t compete? They did it in the Cold War.

http://fortune.com/2015/12/30/russia-elon-musk-spacex/

R

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NYCON II photos: August 31st – September 3rd, 1956.

<https://www.flickr.com/photos/slomuse/sets/72157662390340119>

—————————————

Roland Dobbins

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‘Poverty and economic inequality are not identical.’

<http://paulgraham.com/ineq.html>

—————————————

Roland Dobbins

No, and we don’t really understand either. But we do know that nations that save more get richer, and high IQ correlates with accepting deferred rewards — saving.

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What are they building skyscrapers out of?

Dear Jerry –

This news item http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/fire-breaks-out-dubai-skyscraper-near-burj-khalifa-n488586 shows the exterior of an Abu Dhabi skyscraper burning over about 40 stories, yet the fire appears to be confined to the exterior sheathing, and according to the article engulfed the building in a few (less than 10) minutes, apparently set off by an errant firework.

So – what are they making skyscrapers out of, these days? Cardboard?

Regards,

Jim Martin

I don’t know. Interesting.

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Japanese researchers develop touchable holograms, buffy willow

Jerry

This is huge:

http://www.tweaktown.com/news/49286/japanese-researchers-develop-touchable-holograms/index.html

Think ghosts. Think service members or astronauts hugging their loved ones at a distance. This stuff will soon be ready for Internet sex. Where does it end? I am thinking of the planet in Daneel Oliva’s case where there were few humans, and they had no physical contact with each other.

In case you do not want to go to the above link, YouTube has it here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0nlnRpFoBLo

Ed

But first Hollywood will use it….

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Space Viking?

  According to Wikipedia:
“Pournelle was one of the few close friends of H. Beam Piper and was granted by Piper the rights to produce stories set in Piper’s Terro-Human Future History. This right has been recognized by the copyright owner of the Piper estate. Pournelle did work for some years on a sequel to Space Viking but seems to have abandoned this in the early 1990s.”
What is the status of this? Space Viking was an INCREDIBLE book — will we see you see you doing a sequel?

Gary Rogers

I wrote a daft I wasn’t happy with; it’s lost now.  I had a notion that one of the supercomputers survived and thought it was running the universe with the Gilgameshers as its agents.  They thought so too.  It was a good yarn, but I had other things to do and it slipped between the cracks.  I’m sorry.  I doubt I will ever turn to that again.

 

Beam was a good friend and II;’d have loved to do an homage.  He was one of the best.  John Carr has done well in trying to keep his memory alive. 

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/wind-solar-power-soar-in-spite-of-bargain-prices-for-fossil-fuels/2015/12/30/754758b8-af19-11e5-9ab0-884d1cc4b33e_story.html

Wind, solar power soar in spite of bargain prices for fossil fuels (WP)

By Joby Warrick December 31 at 9:01 AM

In normal times, a months-long slide in energy prices would be enough to rattle a man who makes wind turbines for a living. Yet amid a worldwide glut of cheap fossil fuels, business is blowing strong for Vestas Wind Systems and its CEO, Anders Runevad.

The company posted record gains in 2015 and inked major deals to build wind farms in the United States, Europe, Africa and Asia. That boom in turbine sales was part of a global surge for wind and solar energy, which occurred despite oil, coal and natural gas selling at bargain rates.

“We’re seeing very good momentum across the board globally,” said Runevad, a soft-spoken Swede whose firm is now the world’s biggest producer of wind turbines. “We’re seeing growth in every region.”

Vestas’s performance is emblematic of the changing fortunes for renewable energy, an industry that achieved a number of milestones this year.Massive new projects are under construction from China and India to Texas, which now far outpaces California as the nation’s leading wind-power state. Just this month, the United States crossed the 70-gigawatt threshold in wind-generated electricity, with 50,000 spinning turbines producing enough power to light up 19 million homes.

Energy analysts say the boom is being spurred in part by improved technology, which has made wind and solar more competitive with fossil fuels in many regions. But equally important, experts say, are new government policies here and abroad that favor investment in renewables, as well as a growing willingness by Wall Street to pour billions of dollars into projects once considered financially risky.

“Renewables have turned a corner in a fundamental way,” said Dan Reicher, a former Energy Department assistant secretary who is now executive director of Stanford University’s Steyer-Taylor Center for Energy Policy and Finance.

While solar and wind power have been expanding for years because of steadily falling costs, recent regulatory and financial decisions have set the stage for continued growth for years to come, according to Reicher and other energy experts.

In the United States, these include the Obama administration’s Clean Power Plan, which requires states to reduce emissions from power plants, and the latest congressional budget compromise, which extended tax credits for wind and solar energy. Also key was this month’sclimate accord in Paris, where more than 190 countries approved a plan to reduce pollution from fossil-fuel burning worldwide.[snip]

 

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Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

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Land of the Lost

Chaos Manor View, Monday, December 28, 2015

“This is the most transparent administration in history.”

Barrack Obama

Liberalism is a philosophy of consolation for Western Civilization as it commits suicide.

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I never had this happen before. I had prepared a bunch of stuff to post in Windows, and it’s gone. Gone forever and not in the recycle bin. A couple of hours work, and I have no idea what I did. And of course it’s cold, and I can’t type, and I am about as down as I can get, so this will be brief as I try to reconstruct at least some of it. Word has never caused a file to vanish before. I am sure it is due to my hitting alt-spacebar and some key sequence. I need epoxy to disable the left hand alt key. I hate this.

 

Mostly I am working on fiction and doing family things and surviving the cold, which isn’t cold to anyone but Angelinos; I’ve long since become adjusted to here. Happy New Year.  If you haven’t bought There Will Be War Volume Ten, you know what to do.

Another time.

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Last week I wrote about Eugene, a new system Eric and I built. Well, he did about all the work. Anyway we are still doing many tests, and there will be a lot more. I must say 4K video is gorgeous even with the built in Video. We’ll add a video car next month or so.

The SSD in Eugene isn’t merely an SSD, which nobody in their right mind who makes a decent living would be without, it is a PCIe connected SSD with read speeds up to 2.5 GB. One of the reasons for running the Insider version of Windows 10 is this drive is so fast the system cannot fully exploit it but Microsoft surely has plans as these will become common by this time next year.

                Also, the hard drive is 3 TB, because 4K video adds up quick. Now that high-end phones can capture 4K video and semi-pro gear is very affordable for the budding movie maker, multi-TB drives continue to justify their role in a PC where SSD capacity is now affordable for most other needs.

Eric Pobirs

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This article is worth your attention.

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/dec/27/love-robot-artificial-intelligence-elon-musk-stephen-hawking

Ever since IBM’s Deep Blue defeated then world chess champion Garry Kasparov in a six-game contest in May 1997, humanity has been looking over its shoulder as computers have been running up the inside rail. What task that we thought was our exclusive preserve will they conquer next? What jobs will they take? And what jobs will be left for humans when they do? The pessimistic case was partly set out in the Channel 4 series Humans, about a near-future world where intelligent, human-like robots would do routine work, or stand on streets handing out flyers, while some people worked (law and policing seemed to get a pass, mostly) but others were displaced – and angry.

In May, Martin Ford, author of Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of Mass Unemployment, described the concern for both white- and blue-collar workers as that Humans-style world approaches: “Try to imagine a new industry that doesn’t exist today that will create millions of new jobs. It’s hard to do.”[snip]

The prospect of robot Lamarckian evolution, self aware robots building their prodigy to design, has been with us a while. Of course some, like Penrose, have doubts about strong AI; and in any event I will not live to see it.

I think that the biggest problem we’ll have in the near future is the automated cars. There are so many possibilities of the car saving its occupants only to kill others, or saving kids to kill the occupants, et cetera, ad infinitum, ad nauseam.

The other stuff awaits true AI, which is, IMHO, a good piece off yet. If it ever arrives at all; it seems to me to be developing a “sustained fusion reaction syndrome,” always “only” a couple decades away.
Stephanie Osborn

“The Interstellar Woman of Mystery”

three laws, no waiting
Dr. Pournelle,
A good summary of the state of real AI.
http://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2015/12/demystifying-artificial-intelligence-no-the-singularity-is-not-just-around-the-corner/
As for the singularity or sky net, I think there are more important and likely things to worry about.
-d

Of course, even with the best of intentions, robots can leave us with not much to do as they take over all our work. See Jack Williamson, With Folded Hands…

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Visual picture of near Earth space, then and now

Jerry

From 1957, 58 years of space junk:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPXCk85wMSQ

Ed

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Suppose I am a Fubartarian. That’s a peaceful get along religion that allows its adherents to do what seems necessary if somebody else sticks a nose, pee-pee, scream, or even gun in to the adherent’s face. Otherwise adherents are expected to be peaceful and honest co-dwellers on this great ball of crusty molten gup.

Suppose my holiest day is coming along, fimblemas. So I go around and as a Fubartarian I wish others around me a glorious Fimblemas.

Why are some people repelled and moved to lawsuits over the simple wish for a specially good day on a day I consider significant? I am not wishing them to take on my idiosyncratic religion. I’m just wishing them a good day. Most other religions take the wish at face value even if the day is not significant to them. It becomes, “I hope you have a wonderful day on the 47th of gargle.”

(Whenever that is.) But atheists seem to be VERY religious about taking offense.

Is it because they see money in it? Is it their religion’s creed to feel threatened when a member of another religion uses improper phrasing to simply wish them a good day? Or are they just plain old fashioned fuggheads?

Regardless, I’d like to wish all readers here a VERY Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year beginning with the first strains of Robert Burns’ traditional melody to the last tick of 2016.

{^_^} Joanne Dow (And please underline Christmas in your minds.)

 

A Grim Fate for Syrian Christians.

<http://warisboring.com/articles/a-grim-fate-for-syrian-christians/>

Be sure to read the comments.

—————————————

Roland Dobbins

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250,000 fine for Misgendering Transexuals…

Yes, I know this is local and topical, but it’s related to the national trend of “safe spaces”, “microagressions” and all this “social justice warrior” nonsense:

New York City will fine certain people 250,000 dollars for using the wrong pronoun with a transsexual…

http://www.breitbart.com/tech/2015/12/27/nyc-will-fine-you-250000-for-misgendering-a-transsexual/

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Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

Brave new world, fueled by progress.

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https://aeon.co/essays/why-do-scientists-dismiss-the-possibility-of-cold-fusion

 

And there is still some funding to investigate the Pons Fleischmann effect.  Energy without fossil fuels and enormous central distribution nets would change the world.  Of course oil and gas companies know that. Hot fusion has been thirty years in the future for forty years. And, as the article says, Rossi continues to produce heat than anyone can find going in.

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Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

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