The End of the Republic; “Locky”; Murray; and other important matters.

Chaos Manor View, Wednesday, February 17, 2016

“This is the most transparent administration in history.”

Barrack Obama

Liberalism is a philosophy of consolation for Western Civilization as it commits suicide.

Under Capitalism, the rich become powerful. Under Socialism, the powerful become rich.

Under Socialism, government employees become powerful.

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Some additions, 2430 [0030] Friday 2 / 19 / 2016

 

Chaos Manor Review about “Locky” and ransomware in preparation.  It’s getting scary out there.  Never click on any attachment to an unsolicited email, even if it appears to be from a friend.  Make sure you know the source is who you think it is. And install at least Microsoft Security Essentials on all Windows systems, and contemplate additional protection; more upcoming in Chaos Manor Reviews.

 

The Wall Street Journal has been exceptionally good with essays this week. I will call your attention to several. I will also give links, but I can’t guarantee that will get you past the pay wall. However. If you Google the exact title – which I will cite – that often takes you to the article; it’s some sort of deal the Journal has with Google, and it’s quite legal for you to use it.

Start with an editorial today: “Regulating Education for Profit.” https://www.google.com/search?q=regulating+education+for+profit&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8 and http://www.wsj.com/articles/regulating-education-for-profit-1455668757

Since I subscribe I can’t tell what will work. In any event it is a story of education regulatory officials:

To summarize, an Obama pal is the day-to-day boss of a department that succeeds in destroying 90% of the value of a politically targeted company. Then he leaves government, buys the company at a fire-sale price and announces that the problems that attracted so much negative government attention are ending—just in time for a new Administration that might not hate for-profit education as much as this one. Government mediation sure can be a lucrative business model.

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Then there’s “Welcome to the legal minefield Laid by Obama and the Feds” https://www.google.com/search?q=regulating+education+for+profit&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8#q=Welcome+to+the+legal+minefield+Laid+by+Obama+and+the+Feds or

http://www.wsj.com/articles/welcome-to-the-legal-minefield-laid-by-obama-and-the-feds-1455667538 by Congressman Sensenbrenner:

Through the first five years of his presidency, Barack Obama added 11,327 pages to the Code of Federal Regulations. No one knows how many criminal laws are contained in the compendium of legal rules and regulations promulgated by executive departments and administrative agencies. When I asked the Congressional Research Service to investigate, they said they didn’t have the resources to answer.

One thing is certain, though: No matter how many laws there are, Americans are subject to them all. As John Baker, a retired law professor at Louisiana State University told the Journal in 2011, “There is no one in the United States over the age of 18 who cannot be indicted for some federal crime.”

It’s quite true: there is one or another regulation with a criminal penalty that you have violated this week. You violated several last week. And the fact that you did knowingly violate any law is no excuse.

For example, the Capo family in Virginia was fined $535 in 2011 after their young daughter Skylar rescued a woodpecker. The government deemed her effort to save the bird to be taking or transporting a protected species—an illegal act according to the Federal Migratory Bird Act. The fine was later rescinded, but not before it was assessed.

<snip> there was Abner Schoenwetter, who spent six years in federal prison after being found guilty in 2000 of packaging lobsters with plastic, rather than cardboard—a violation of an obscure Honduran regulation. Under the Lacey Act in the U.S., it is illegal for an American citizen to violate any fish or wildlife regulation of another nation.

Six years for packaging lobster in plastic although there is no US law mentioning lobsters in plastic. And we have, apparently, not only bunny inspectors but woodpecker inspectors who will retire after service with a pension probably larger than yours.

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There will be more later.  Dinner time

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This is perhaps the most insidiously evil thing I’ve seen

Propaganda Games: Sesame Credit – The True Danger of Gamification – Extra Credits https://youtu.be/lHcTKWiZ8sI

This is evil run rampant as a means of controlling a population. The government even finds itself in a position of not needing jackbooted thugs to maintain public order. The public does it themselves.

Now, think a few seconds.

Doesn’t this video basically describe political correctness?

{^_^}

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As well as Pavlovian Conditioning…

 

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RE: Geothermal heat and Earth’s energy balance

Regarding John Pennell’s query, I remember looking into this a few years ago and discovering that heat flux at Earth’s surface from geothermal energy is very small compared to total solar irradiance times Earth’s albedo (about 0.3).

From Wikipedia:

The geothermal heat flux from the Earth’s interior is estimated to be 47 terawatts . [8] This comes to 0.087 watt/square metre, which represents only 0.027% of Earth’s total energy budget at the surface, which is dominated by 173,000 terawatts of incoming solar radiation . [9]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth%27s_energy_budget

I’m not sure where John’s geologist acquaintance got his degree, but I think earth’s habitability might be improved if we had no geothermal energy (e.g. we would have no supervolcanoes like Yellowstone ready to decimate life on earth).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supervolcano

Best regards,

Doug Ely

Quite possibly, but how much energy applied where will cause, say, El Nino, which has an astonishing effect on North American, South American, and African weather for years? A small amount of energy applied in the right way can be catalyst for very large changes in weather.  Collimate is what you predict; weather is what you get

 

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r.e. Charles Murray on Trump’s America 

Dear Jerry

I bought and read Charles Murray’s “Coming Apart” several years ago.  His  work was moderately acceptable with respect to describing the deteriorated state of the white working class he symbolized as “Fishtown”.  I found his exposition of the upper 20%’ers he identified as “Belmont” to be opaque to the point of willful obfuscation.   And he completely ignored the emergence of the Oligarchs.

Murray also completely avoided the toxicity of the Orwelllian so-called “Free Trade” agreements our domestic Oligarchs have made with the one party Chinese dictatorship.  And Murray’s tendency to equate Houston petroleum engineers with Silicon Valley denizens, or Bakken oil & gas field roughnecks with tenured Harvard academics in his upper income bracket also left much to be desired.  He similarly ignored the adverse effects of broken borders immigration and affirmative action hiring preferences on the white working class.  

Ultimately Murray implied that Fishtown’s plight was primarily due to its failure to attend church as often as the Belmonters, and to marry and to stay married.  And here he ignores the well established effect of economic stress on divorce rates.  There’s no easy way to say this.  The only acclamation that Murray’s book deserves is the braying sound of a donkey. 

I find that Joel Kotkin has done an inestimably superior job in a shorter space in clearly analyzing Trump’s America.  And he does the same for the GOP Establishment’s America, Hillary Clinton’s America and Bernie Sanders’ America.  While I disagree with many of his forward prescriptions I find his descriptions of present reality to be spot-on.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/02/15/we-now-join-the-us-class-war-already-in-progress.html

Best Wishes,

Mark

I disagree on your opinion of Murray, although I don’t follow his conclusions so much as his data, which are pretty meticulous.  I don’t know that he said he had found a cause: he said that Fishtown did not attend Church, and Belmont did; you infer cause and effect, but Murray does not state that.  And the statement is true: Belmont has a far higher attendance at Church or Temple than Fishtown.  I might see a common cause in economic success and the incentive to go to church, obey the laws, and work hard. And, for that matter, I can see how the tendency to go to church would have an effect on divorce ad its attendant stress.

Murray was trying to avoid racial and controversial issues.  Perhaps he was too successful.  Thanks for your input.

I fear I do not share your confidence in the daily beast and its data or analyses.

 

Jerry,

Via Instapundit, http://www.aei.org/publication/trumps-america/

Charles Murray, author of “Coming Apart”, methodically lays out where Mr. Trump’s current wave of support comes from. Long, and impossible to do justice to by a few short quotes, but here are a few anyway.

“If you are dismayed by Trumpism, don’t kid yourself that it will fade away if Donald Trump fails to win the Republican nomination. Trumpism is an expression of the legitimate anger that many Americans feel about the course that the country has taken, and its appearance was predictable.

It is the endgame of a process that has been going on for a

half-century: America’s divestment of its historic national identity.”

“The new upper class consists of the people who shape the country’s economy, politics and culture. The new lower class consists of people who have dropped out of some of the most basic institutions of American civic culture, especially work and marriage. Both of these new classes have repudiated the American creed in practice, whatever lip service they may still pay to it. Trumpism is the voice of a beleaguered working class telling us that it too is falling away.”

“Another characteristic of the new upper class—and something new under the American sun—is their easy acceptance of being members of an upper class and their condescension toward ordinary Americans.”

“For its part, mainstream America is fully aware of this condescension and contempt and is understandably irritated by it. American egalitarianism is on its last legs.”

“..the central truth of Trumpism as a phenomenon is that the entire American working class has legitimate reasons to be angry at the ruling class.”

Any Republican – any conservative, any American – who hopes to end this year with a chance to begin fixing the damage and pulling the country back together should read this piece and think hard.

I wrote recently about part of what Murray addresses, the erosion of our middle classes at the lower margin. My takeaway from this piece:

<bold>Our upper classes and their destructive cult of progressive virtue-signaling must also be addressed.</bold>

Not taxed out of existence to pay for far vaster entitlements as Bernie Sanders proposes – that simply won’t work. Nor are Mr. Trump’s current blunt repudiations of parts of their foolishness sufficient. Enjoyable and long overdue, yes, but not sufficient.

Our ruling classes, our self-anointed betters, require persuasive explanation of how far they’ve strayed from the essence of being American, along with a combination of shaming and cajolement to induce at least some of them to start rejoining the old ideal of the country.

The candidate that can do this, with that deft amiable Reagan touch (which as you point out, he made look easy, but it’s anything but) will burn Bernie, bury Hillary, out-trump Trump, and likely take 40+ states.

Not because he’ll immediately convince the ruling class – they took decades to drift into that state, they’ll take time to climb back out – but because a large majority of the country knows we’re crumbing but hasn’t yet heard a persuasively reasoned fix.

I wouldn’t rule out Trump being the one to do this. It’s a logical extension of what he’s been doing, and he is certainly a capable man.

It does require far more hard work (and risk) than he’s committed to so far.

Is there anyone else among the current candidates who also might gain then wield the bully pulpit thus? Cruz has the combination of deep intelligence and utter lack of need for establishment-approval it’d take. One or two others seem to have the intelligence…

Interesting times.

Porkypine

 

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Socialism

Jerry:

Socialism is only supported by two kinds of people.

The first group expects to become the masters.

The second group expects to be such perpetual failures that they will need the government to give them what has been taken from those who were NOT failures.

Keith

It eventually runs out of easily obtained money as those who made it flee or are killed, and must resort to force.  The result produces what the Yugoslav writer Djilas called, The New Class. 

 

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This Week in Physics — February 16, 2016

physics@aps.org

Viewpoint: The First Sounds of Merging Black Holes

Emanuele Berti – February 12, 2016

 

Gravitational waves emitted by the merger of two black holes have been detected, setting the course for a new era of observational astrophysics.

 

 

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Would you bet against sex robots? AI ‘could leave half of world unemployed’

Scientist Moshe Vardi tells colleagues that change could come within 30 years, with few professions immune to effect of advanced artificial intelligence

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/feb/13/artificial-intelligence-ai-unemployment-jobs-moshe-vardi

 

Re: Would you bet against sex robots? AI ‘could leave half of world unemployed’ (Guardian)

I see no problem with folks buying sex robots, any more than I see a problem with them buying “pocket pussies” or dildos.

Both of those, though, are cheap and easy to make.

And human beings are easy to make, all the components are free, and making them is fun.

The raw materials for creating human replacements are NOT free, acquiring them in quantities to replace humans would require enormous economic investment and the use of resources that are rare and in demand for other things, and at the end of the day, why pay a ton of money for something you can get for free?

It’s delightful that the great minds of the century are worried about this, though. I’m guessing they aren’t getting laid too regularly.

And the availability of purchasable companions with personalities better than the strident anti-male, all-sex-is-rape women still pervasive in this country does offer a nice alternative for men with limited needs. I just told my sons not to waste their time on middle- or upper-class American women.

No man needs to be saddled with a princess-wannabe.

Cheerfully,

Holly Lisle

Yet some of my friends are upper middle class technocrats who can’t find girls appropriate for them.  Sad.

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: Mini Ice Age AD536-660, New Sci 13 Feb, p. 18

Of possible interest . . .

Since Leroy mentioned my name, I thought I would alert to the location of this brief summary for those with an interest.

https://www.academia.edu/22153847/The_Climate_Crisis_of_530-545_CE_in_Chinese_Sources

David

On Feb 18, 2016, at 15:34, Hermann Burchard <vollskeptiker@yahoo.com> wrote:

Dear Leroy, Mike & all,

    only a few days ago, when Googling AD 536 I got into an interesting discussion with a co-author of Mike Baillie’s (he posts as Jonny on Cosmic Tusk).   As you probably know, the evidence for cosmic impact 530-540 has been dubious. The lake Ilopango in El Salvador is accepted tentatively by many as an ET astrobleme for that epoch.   There is more to consider.

1.)   In case of comet, we always expect multiple fragments impacting on account of the fragility of these loose agglomerations of ices, rocks and metals.  For 536, one of many, many impacts from late Pleistocene and Holocene occurred in the Sunda strait between Java and Sumatra (if you take David Keys’ word for it and that of Paul Wheatley (see their Wikipedia pages).  Wheatley has sources for an incident in 536-540 when trade missions failed between Malacca and China, loud bangs heard in Nanking, and yellow dust covered the ground. The trade mission failure is securely dated to 536 but Keys’ Javan records written on palm leaves appear to have a false date of 416, explained away as due to tropical climate trouble.  Wheatley’s book is quoted by Graham Hancock:  https://grahamhancock.com/voutec1/

2.)  Napier, Asher, Bailey, Steel in their recent paper on the comet menace & the Centaurs put the Taurid ancestor at 30 Ka BP, however, this should probably be set at 40 Ka followed shortly by the Campi Flegrei eruption. The date of the Laschamp geomagnetic excursion is indicative of an ET impact according to Prof. Richard Muller of UC Berkeley.  There are several confirmed cases:  The Australasian tektite impact in the S-China Sea is co-dated at 780 Ka BP with the Brunhes-Matuyama reversal — the reversal has a slight time-delay, but the co-dating is secure from Chinese loess beds containing micro-tektites. The Campi Flegrei was again later than Laschamp. Also the Eltanin impact at 2,559 Ka BP coincides with the Matuyama-Gauss reversal (impact site in Southern Ocean near or on S America) which is  the official end of the Pliocene, onset of the Pleistocene.  

Best,

Herman


From: Leroy Ellenberger <c.leroy@rocketmail.com>
To: 

Sent: Thursday, February 18, 2016 3:47 PM
Subject: Mini Ice Age AD536-660, New Sci 13 Feb, p. 18

Mike & All,  FYI, the 13 Feb New Scientist runs a news item “Mini ice age linked to fall of empires in late antiquity” incited by 3 large volcanic eruptions with no nod to the cometary portents which were also active at that time as documented by Baillie and McCafferty in “The Celtic Gods: Comets in Irish Mythology” (2005) and researched recently by David Pankenier at Lehigh Univ. Here’s the news item:

IT WAS a cold century. In AD 536, the first of three giant volcanic

eruptions ushered in a mini ice age that coincided with a plague

epidemic, the decline of the eastern Roman Empire, and

upheavals across Eurasia.

   Now we have the first evidence that the disruption to climate

continued for more than 100 years, rather than around a decade, as

previously thought. The cold lasted until around 660, affecting

Europe and Central Asia, and perhaps the rest of the world, too.

   Ulf Buntgen at the Swiss Federal Research Institute in Birmensdorf

and his team have used tree ring data to show that the eruptions

were followed by decades of cooler summers–in some  cases

4 C cooler–probably thanks to the volcanic dust in the

atmosphere (Nature Geosciences, doi.org/bcdq).

   The social turmoil at this time included the plague sweeping

across eastern Europe, the Slavs expanding across the continent,

the transformation of the eastern Roman Empire, and dynastic

change in China. “There was dramatic social, cultural and

political change,” says Shaun Tougher, a historian at Cardiff

University, UK. “Perhaps aspects of the changes were exacerbated

by a colder period.”

   “Suggesting climate caused complex events in history like the

fall of empires is controversial,” says Francis Ludlow of Trinity

College Dublin in Ireland. “Ultimately [though], there can be

very little doubt that these sorts of climatic events place great stress

on societies, and can sometimes tip them over the edge.”

Perhaps some “gentle reader” might offer a letter to the editor with

respect to the cosmic vector also present at that time which inspired

the lore associated with the Arthurian Legend, as Baillie and McCafferty

showed in 2005.

Cheers,  Leroy

David W Pankenier

dpankenier@gmail.com

 

 

 

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Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

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Scalia and the Court; More on Trump; The Cold War returns

Chaos Manor View, Sunday, February 14, 2016

“This is the most transparent administration in history.”

Barrack Obama

Liberalism is a philosophy of consolation for Western Civilization as it commits suicide.

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The pledge drive week is ended, and thanks.

 

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I was going to suggest that the best thing Trump could do to show he is a serious candidate would be to discuss his possible appointments to the Supreme Court, but he obviously understands such things: he has gone on record as saying we need someone just like Scalia. He named one possibility but made it clear he was looking for Scalia replacements: scholarly, conservative, and persuasive. He scores high with me in his answers on Meet The Press today, and was neither frivolous nor overly aggressive. He is no philosopher, nor claims to be; he remains a pragmatic populist.

And he certainly would not nominate Bill Clinton or Barrack Hussein Obama…

This will be a critical appointment to USSC; with Scalia gone, the balance is close. We have two Obama and two Clinton appointments; one remaining by Reagan; and three by Bushes. The next one will, like Scalia before him, be pretty well the tie breaker on Constitutional matters. God helps look out for fools, drinks, and the United States of America, and we really need Him on this one.

The Hon. Antonin G. Scalia, Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States, RIP.

<http://www.latimes.com/local/obituaries/la-me-antonin-scalia-20160213-story.html>

He will be missed.

—————————————

Roland Dobbins

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I have some new stories about Computing at Chaos Manor, but it is for another time. Meanwhile:

Charles Murray on Trump’s America

http://www.aei.org/publication/trumps-america/

Phil Tharp

Is an extremely important essay by one of the few sociologists for whom I have any respect or regard, and I recommend it to all of you. It’s worth your time.

Jerry,

Via Instapundit, http://www.aei.org/publication/trumps-america/

Charles Murray, author of “Coming Apart”, methodically lays out where Mr. Trump’s current wave of support comes from. Long, and impossible to do justice to by a few short quotes, but here are a few anyway.

“If you are dismayed by Trumpism, don’t kid yourself that it will fade away if Donald Trump fails to win the Republican nomination. Trumpism is an expression of the legitimate anger that many Americans feel about the course that the country has taken, and its appearance was predictable.

It is the endgame of a process that has been going on for a

half-century: America’s divestment of its historic national identity.”

“The new upper class consists of the people who shape the country’s economy, politics and culture. The new lower class consists of people who have dropped out of some of the most basic institutions of American civic culture, especially work and marriage. Both of these new classes have repudiated the American creed in practice, whatever lip service they may still pay to it. Trumpism is the voice of a beleaguered working class telling us that it too is falling away.”

“Another characteristic of the new upper class—and something new under the American sun—is their easy acceptance of being members of an upper class and their condescension toward ordinary Americans.”

“For its part, mainstream America is fully aware of this condescension and contempt and is understandably irritated by it. American egalitarianism is on its last legs.”

“..the central truth of Trumpism as a phenomenon is that the entire American working class has legitimate reasons to be angry at the ruling class.”

Any Republican – any conservative, any American – who hopes to end this year with a chance to begin fixing the damage and pulling the country back together should read this piece and think hard.

I wrote recently about part of what Murray addresses, the erosion of our middle classes at the lower margin. My takeaway from this piece:

<bold>Our upper classes and their destructive cult of progressive virtue-signaling must also be addressed.</bold>

Not taxed out of existence to pay for far vaster entitlements as Bernie Sanders proposes – that simply won’t work. Nor are Mr. Trump’s current blunt repudiations of parts of their foolishness sufficient. Enjoyable and long overdue, yes, but not sufficient.

Our ruling classes, our self-anointed betters, require persuasive explanation of how far they’ve strayed from the essence of being American, along with a combination of shaming and cajolement to induce at least some of them to start rejoining the old ideal of the country.

The candidate that can do this, with that deft amiable Reagan touch (which as you point out, he made look easy, but it’s anything but) will burn Bernie, bury Hillary, out-trump Trump, and likely take 40+ states.

Not because he’ll immediately convince the ruling class – they took decades to drift into that state, they’ll take time to climb back out – but because a large majority of the country knows we’re crumbing but hasn’t yet heard a persuasively reasoned fix.

I wouldn’t rule out Trump being the one to do this. It’s a logical extension of what he’s been doing, and he is certainly a capable man.

It does require far more hard work (and risk) than he’s committed to so far.

Is there anyone else among the current candidates who also might gain then wield the bully pulpit thus? Cruz has the combination of deep intelligence and utter lack of need for establishment-approval it’d take. One or two others seem to have the intelligence…

Interesting times.

Porkypine

As you say.  Interesting times.  What is certain is that this broken system of education cannot go on; and that, with a false philosophy required to be learned and believed in order to graduate, reminds us of other places in the past.  But not even the USSR required you to incur a lifetime of debt in order to take your four years of Marxism.

 

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It’s Official, New Cold War with Russia

Well, it’s now official, once more we face the Red Menace:

<.>

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said his country is in a new Cold War with the U.S. and its allies, underscoring the tenuous level of trust that’s putting a day-old plan for a truce in Syria at risk.

</>

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-13/russia-sees-new-cold-war-as-nato-chief-criticizes-nuclear-threat

Thankfully, some of us experienced this; we’re ready for this. Or so we think….

◊ ◊ ◊ ◊ ◊

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

It has been building since Clinton and Albright chose the anti-Slavic side in a Balkan conflicts they did not understand, and in which the United States had no discernible interest. They bombed Serbia, dropped the bridges on the lower Danube thus wrecking economies all along the river, and achieved little beyond angering the Russians and earning the hatred of Serbians. The cost of resurrecting SAC will be enormous, yet there must be a MAD component because we have not moved far enough toward strategic defense; meanwhile we have wasted much of the economy on nonsense like alcohol fuels – which are not all that useful for cars, but keep the price of corn and sugar high – and other expensive “renewable” energy. If renewable energy is the goal – and it is a worthy one – nuclear power is the best we know of now; but more is spent on regulations and lawyers than on research and development of nuclear energy.

ISIS is a common enemy of all Europe and America, but few seem to recognize it.

And now we have a new Cold War with Russia. A grand reset.

Well, this is interesting and I have comments:

<.>

Europe is facing a convergence of the worst crises since World War II, and the overwhelming consensus among officials and experts here is that the U.S. no longer has the will or the ability to play an influential role in solving them.

At the Munich Security Conference, the prime topics are the refugee crisis, the Syrian conflict, Russian aggression and the potential dissolution of the European Union’s very structure. Top European leaders repeatedly lamented that 2015 saw all of Europe’s problems deepen, and unanimously predicted that in 2016 they would get even worse.

“The question of war and peace has returned to the continent,” German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier told the audience, indirectly referring to Russian military interventions. “We had thought that peace had returned to Europe for good.”

</>

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-02-13/europe-s-convinced-u-s-won-t-solve-its-problems

First, we both know that Europe is a joke militarily. I sent you articles about how the British and French considered merging their navies since neither country really has one anymore. I also wrote about how the UK MOD said they cannot initiate or sustain wars as of more than 10 years ago. I also wrote about how the German NATO rapid strike force used mop handles in a comparatively recent exercise because they had no small arms.

Second, when I traveled, I got nothing but bullshit from young Australians, Canadians, Kiwis, Englishmen, and people I affectionately came to refer to as “Eurotrash” simply for being American. Oh, we’re so evil. We’re the source of all the pain and suffering in the world.

My feelings of “friendship” with Europe disappeared during my travels.

And after listening to English chavs denounce my country, the country that saved them from two world wars, I’m not interested in helping them out of the kindness of my heart either.

I am not surprised Europe is in the dying cockroach position and I find it amusing that it’s “America’s fault” for “not helping”. My interests in Europe are purely geopolitical. Their politics, their societies, and their attitudes are about as acceptable to me as those of the American left. Though I wouldn’t mind having a cottage in Switzerland and the Swiss were never rude to me about my nationality.

◊ ◊ ◊ ◊ ◊

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

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“It is as though they all have some signs of being on an Asperger’s spectrum.”

<www.nybooks.com/articles/2016/02/25/we-are-hopelessly-hooked/>

—————————————

Roland Dobbins

Having spent two generations sowing the wind, whirlwind reapings may be expected.

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The earth’s core vs. climate

A geologist acquaintance of mine made the statement that earth’s core being a giant nuclear reactor is a major determinant of climate. That the internal heat thus generated is what makes our planet habitable and is the reason that Mars, lacking such, can never be made habitable.
I am at a loss as to where to turn to research this, I am not seeking to refute his position, simply to learn. Any suggestions would be appreciated.

John Pennell

I do not advise you to ask at your university; such questions are no longer appropriate. While climatologists have no explanation of El Nino, they use the El Nino warnings as explanations for why their climate models don’t work; but still they don’t. There now so many whose careers depend on manmade global warning that it is not even possible to discuss the subject in most universities; it is fatal to any academic success.

 

The sun’s quiet activity could trigger a mini ice age, researchers warn | Daily Mail Online

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3444633/What-happened-sun-Solar-activity-remains-quietest-century-trigger-mini-ice-age.html

Charles Brumbelow

At least we know how to throw another log on the fire…

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The Last Bastion of the Liberal Left

“To legitimize itself, the Left needs to hide the truth that the central planning it loves only begets misery. So all it has remaining is trying to shut the rest of us up.”
“Government By ‘Experts’ Is Failing Everywhere”
“Social Science Has Moved On”
“Research Shows Strong, Traditional Institutions Matter Most”
“The Last Leftist Bastion: Environmentalism”
A good essay with these paragraph topics telling you where it’s going.
http://thefederalist.com/2016/02/12/political-correctness-is-a-mask-for-leftists-intellectual-insecurity/
Pete

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Gravitational Waves and a Fish in Water

Jerry,

The euphoria about the gravitational wave detection reminds me of the fish that first heard the sound of the finger tap on the aquarium, but still has no understanding of, nor ability to comprehend water.

Cheers,

Jeff D

Nor have we; aether is still not falsified.

 

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Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

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Porkypine, Trump, and other matters

Chaos Manor View and Mail, Thursday, February 11, 2016

 

More dentistry, but I drove myself to the dentist, and tonight Roberta drove herself to choir practice; we have reached the recuperation phase of the various ailments that have been bugging us. Tomorrow I should do a full day’s work, God willing.

Also I solved the dreaded 503 error and understand it now for the Surface Pro 3 with Pro 4 keyboard, which combination I recommend; I doubt I will buy a Pro 4, at least for a while; I can recommend the Surface Pro 3 with Pro 4 keyboard as good enough for a road warrior. Do carry a charging system and use often. Write-up coming in Chaos Manor Reviews covering 503 error, fingerprint ID on the Pro 4, and some more on .pst files.

It’s late. Short shrift time. Gravitational waves; I have a young friend who has a working fellowship at Cal Tech so I pretty well knew it was coming, but I wasn’t on the official press list (which was embargoed anyway) and it would have done you no good to know a few days in advance. I haven’t thought what this does to Beckmann’s ether theory, but it does not seem to me to refute it; Beckmann postulated that the local gravitational field is the aether in which everything waves, and I see no evidence that negates that. Beckmann assumed that gravity propagates at the speed of light, but that is not unchanging depending on the strength of the local gravitational field, and might be significantly different between galaxies or at galactic centers; this may go a way to explaining the gravitational anomalies which have caused the postulation of dark matter and dark energy. At this point you have exceeded my mathematical abilities and I must leave the rest to someone who knows better.

But, so far as I can tell, the confirmation of the existence of gravity waves is a confirmation of General Relativity, but also a confirmation — or at least not a falsification – of Beckmann’s gravity field as aether hypothesis. I am sure we will have considerable discussion on this in weeks to come.

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Wish I could go.

 

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I have said this before and I have seen no reason to change my view: Trump is not a Conservative as paleo conservatives understand the word, and he has no real conservative theories: he is a pragmatic populist in the tradition of Andrew Jackson or Herbert Hoover. He has no experience in governing, but he does have considerable experience in management including management of what would have been considered enormous projects not all that long ago. Reagan learned from governing California; Trump will not have that experience if he becomes President. He will discuss goals with potential managers and engineers, form some notion of the possibilities of success and the costs of failure, and choose those projects which he thinks will make us look great, get employment growing, etc. He does not try to look statesmanlike, but he can assume enough gravitas for the occasion when it arises. He will not be unintentionally rude. He knows he must enlist the services of people who don’t much like him; he has done that well in the past.

If you went by credentials, Jeb Bush is the most qualified; but you get his relatives and their friends with him, and that means the Republican Establishment and thus more of the same; and the country is sick of them. Both Democrats and Republicans have grown weary of what we have and want something different and new. No one asked Barrack the Magic Negro for blueprints of Hope and Change, and he hadn’t even managed the construction of a big building.

When I was growing up we were taught in sixth grade that Democrats wanted “tariff for revenue only;” Republicans wanted protective tariff to keep manufacturing – and jobs – at home. Abraham Lincoln said of tariff, if he buys a shirt from England, he gets the shirt but the money leaves the country and pays wages to Englishmen; if he buys it from a US manufacturer, he has the shirt, and the money stays in America, paying American workers. This is, according to Ricardo, far too simple an analysis; but it appeals to reason. American goods may cost more without overseas competition, but the money and jobs stay/ cheaper goods are not always appealing to those who have no jobs to give then wages, and must rely in government to pay them for not working; and a sizeable number of “workers” resent being on the unemployment role and getting welfare aid.

The US establishment went to war in 1940, and suddenly produced tanks, rifles, airplanes, trucks, bandages, ammunition, cargo ships and battleships; when the American people rose up they drowned Germany and Japan in war materiel. The German war machine used animal drawn transport to supply much of the Wehrmacht; The United States turned the last cavalry regiments into mechanized units and the Red Ball Express that supplied Patton. I used mules to plow cotton fields during World War II; but our soldiers did not depend on mules for ammunition. If all our plants had been in Frankfurt instead of Detroit, the outcome might have been different.

That, I believe, is how Trump sees things.

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NSS Pays Tribute to Late NSS Governor Dr. Marvin Minsky, A Pioneer in Artificial Intelligence

(Washington DC, February 11, 2016)  The National Space Society pays tribute to Dr. Marvin Minsky, a pioneer of artificial intelligence, who served as a long-time member of the NSS Board of Governors, and was involved in the original merger of the L5 Society and the National Space Institute to create the National Space Society.  Dr. Minsky was very involved in early NSS activities and was part of many NSS space policy projects such as the 1981 “Citizens Advisory Council on National Space Policy.” He attended Board of Governors meetings and participated in NSS’s annual International Space Development Conference.® He died on January 14 in Boston from a cerebral hemorrhage. He was 88 years old.
Marvin was also the thesis advisor for current NSS Governor K. Eric Drexler, a pioneer in the field of nanotechnology and an early activist who helped start NSS.

Hugh Downs, Chair of the NSS Board of Governors, said, “Marvin Minsky was a bright light in the arena of accelerating knowledge in modern physics. Where many of us plodded along to keep up with these changes, he seemed to always manage to be even with them. He will be sorely missed by those who worked with him and knew him well.” 

Marvin Minsky was Toshiba Professor of Media Arts and Sciences, and Professor of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. His research led to both theoretical and practical advances in artificial intelligence, cognitive psychology, neural networks, the theory of Turing Machines and recursive functions. He made other contributions in the domains of graphics, symbolic mathematical computation, knowledge representation, computational semantics, machine perception, and both symbolic and connectionist learning. He was also involved with advanced technologies for exploring space.

In October 2015, the MIT Media Lab presented Marvin with a gift in honor of his lifetime commitment to MIT students. “What a beautiful thing. What does it do?” he asked, when studying the world’s first 3D-printed clear glass object. View the presentation here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2tIIe3NnodU .

The report from the Citizens Advisory Council, in which Marvin participated, was titled Space: The Crucial Frontier and includes this preamble:
“Space is potentially our most valuable national resource. A properly developed space program can go far toward restoring national pride while developing significant and possibly decisive military and economic advantages. In exploring space we will rediscover frontiers and more than frontiers; we can rediscover progress. The exploitation of space will have far reaching historical significance. The statesmen who lead mankind permanently to space will be remembered when Isabella the Great and Columbus are long forgotten.” (http://www.nss.org/settlement/L5news/1981-council.htm)

Today, NSS is vigorously promoting our expansion into space.  We are engaging with the international community via collaborations, tracks at our annual International Space Development Conference, and articles in Ad Astra and in major international publications. NSS volunteers today maintain the Space Settlement Nexus (www.nss.org/settlement) in carrying forward Marvin Minsky’s vision. 

###

I was one of the founding members of NSS, and For years was Secretary of the L5 Society.

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https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GjETv16T1Io/Vrsefnpk3yI/AAAAAAAABwM/-BWIPHdsITU/s1600/TWBWv9_480.jpg

 

There Will Be War Volume IX

After Armageddon

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South Carolina New Poll Data

Jerry,

There’s been a dearth of new poll data out of South Carolina since before Iowa, a lifetime in politics. As of then, the RealClearPolitics.Com (RCP) average had Trump 36%, Cruz 20%, Rubio 13%, Bush 10%, Carson 9%, Kasich 2%.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_presidential_primary-4151.html

Most of the “Polls Say” stories currently out there are based on this obsolete data, and can be safely ignored. (Though keep an eye on RCP over the coming days, as new polls are no doubt in the works – but pay more attention to the actual new polls than to the average, until the old polls have rolled out of it!)

Today we finally have the first post-NH poll data out of SC (via Bill Kristol, though unofficial and with caveats): Trump 32%, Cruz 26%, Rubio 20%, Bush 10%, Carson 7%, Kasich 2%.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/sc-poll-trump-32-cruz-26-rubio-20-bush-10/article/2001032

So (assuming Kristol isn’t being played or the poll isn’t an outlier) over the last three weeks in SC Trump lost some ground, Cruz closed to within striking distance, and Rubio moved up to a solid third place.

Meanwhile Bush, Carson, and Kasich largely held on to what they had (but absent major gains what they had is likely to not be very relevant.)

My chief takeaway today: The SC Republican insurgent vote looks to be 65% (Trump, Cruz, Carson) even without trying to figure out how much of Rubio’s support is Tea Party types going along (for now) with his two-lane bid for establishment support.

New Hampshire’s 49% Rep establishment turnout (arguably less given Rubio’s 10% included in it) may be their high-water mark for this campaign. Iowa’s and now South Carolina’s two-thirds insurgent majorities may be the rule.

If so, I’m thinking that the Republican establishment needs to begin seriously considering which flavor of insurgency will be best for the country overall, and make their peace. My take is, they’ll survive that a lot better over the long run than if they throw the race to whoever they think best for themselves in the short run.

Porkypine

I have no significant quarrel with your analysis.

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Talk Like Reagan

The following is extracted from a piece called “How to Win the White House and Save the World: Don’t Talk of Reagan. Talk Like Reagan.”

http://ace.mu.nu/archives/361326.php (Ace of Spades HQ, via Instapundit)

The point made here strikes me as both highly explanatory of the current race and profoundly important. Read the whole thing, but the heart of it is here:

– begin quote –

There is a principle called the 80/20 principle. You surely know it: 20% of the work produces 80% of the gains. But the next 80% of the work only produces the last 20% of the gains.

Trump is being taken seriously because he’s not forgetting the most important thing: to tell people

* This will make you freer.

* This will make you safer.

* This will make you richer.

* This will make you happier.

* This will make a better world for your children.

That’s 20% of politics. He doesn’t do the 80%, the hard thinking about policy, the homework, because he’s a little lazy.

Yet his 20% is producing that magical 80% of the benefits, whereas many other candidates are focusing on the 80% that only gets you the 20%.

Everyone can beat Trump.

They just have to re-read Reagan, look at those beautiful words, each so simple but so perfect, and how, after every single policy proposal, Reagan explained to you:

* This will make you freer.

* This will make you safer.

* This will make you richer.

* This will make you happier.

* This will make a better world for your children.

Trump is doing the 20% and getting the 80% because he can’t really do more than that 20%. That’s really all he has.

But other candidates, who know the whole 100%, are getting bogged down in the 80% that gets you the 20%.

Anyone can beat Trump.

All it takes is speaking like Reagan.

– end quote –

Porkypine

I doubt whether Franklin Roosevelt knew how to loft an airplane or build a bombsight. Oy, have you studied Huey Long’s career? Speaking like Reagan is not trivial; having participated in some of the efforts to write speeches for him, I can assure you of that. Most career Sergeants Major know far more how to do things than their officers; and smart officers know this, and are advised on what can and cannot be done; but they seldom rise to command.

Trump says this will make YOU happier; I’m already happy.

Like the county roads commissioner who kept winning election although there was a weird road snaking through the hollows forty miles to make it easier for him to get to town – and ran on a platform of “I’ve got my road. I’ll build the ones you need.”

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While I was rummaging around in the Beyond Belief cupboard

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/obama-signs-two-executive-orders-on-cybersecurity/ar-BBpizIj?ocid=ansmsnnews11

As a Cybersecurity guy that has worked in this field for more years than I care to count, this says it all:

“…Obama created two new entities as part of a $19 billion budget proposal to Congress on cybersecurity: The first, a Commission on Enhancing National Cybersecurity, will be made up of business, technology, national security and law enforcement leaders who will make recommendations to strengthen online security in the public and private sectors. It will deliver a report to the president by Dec. 1….”

And:

“The second, a Federal Privacy Council, will bring together chief privacy officers from 25 federal agencies to coordinate efforts to protect the vast amounts of data the federal government collects and maintains about taxpayers and citizens.”

$19 Billion dollars for a bunch of people who are probably mostly incompetent or at a minimum focused on their own varied agendas to produce “A REPORT BY DECEMBER 1.” 

And the second group is the set of dumbasses that failed in the first place.  You are going to keep them on staff and pay them MORE money!?!?

Good grief.  $19 Billion … and all they produce is a report in just under a YEAR.  $19 Billion would fix ALL their problem systems, upgrade them, put in state of the art security systems and train users.

One more COLOSSAL waste of money.

What they need is some competent System Architects and Security people.  But they won’t hire them, they’ll hire by cronyism.

Trace

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Nuclear winter rides again

Dear Dr. Pournelle,
It appears that nuclear winter, which we haven’t heard about in years , is once again saddling up as a theory.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/11/opinion/lets-end-the-peril-of-a-nuclear-winter.html?ref=opinion&_r=0
I need a sanity check; they claim that detonating 50 Hiroshima-size bombs (10 kt) would generate enough smoke and so forth to cause climate change for decades. 
The thought that springs to my mind is: Wait a moment.  Weren’t the conventional thousand-bomber raids which, on a nightly basis, incinerated Cologne, Dresden, Osaka, Tokyo on a par with the damage done to Hiroshima by one bomb?  It wasn’t that Hiroshima was especially atrocious or the destruction exceptional compared to  what conventional bombers did; it’s that it only took one airplane to do the job. 
I would like to take their models and run them against a conventional bombing raid of the sort that was common in both Europe and the pacific from 1944 and 1945, then compare against what climatological results actually occurred.
Respectfully,

Brian P.

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My former student asks a good question

Rohrabacher: Why Is America Restarting the Cold War With Russia?

<http://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-america-restarting-the-cold-war-russia-15183?page=show>

—————————————

Roland Dobbins

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Russia, WWIII

I’ve mentioned the possibility of another world war for some time.

Comparatively recently, I mentioned the Gulf State force and the declaration made by that Saudi general that they were ready to go to Syria. Well, Russia did not take kindly to their offer:

<.>

Russia issued a stark warning of the potential consequences. “The Americans and our Arab partners must think well: do they want a permanent war?” its prime minister, Dmitry Medvedev, told Germany’s Handelsblatt newspaper in an interview due to be published on Friday but released on Thursday night.

“It would be impossible to win such a war quickly, especially in the Arab world, where everybody is fighting against everybody.

“All sides must be compelled to sit at the negotiating table instead of unleashing a new world war.”

</>

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/12153112/Russia-warns-of-new-world-war-starting-in-Syria.html

One of the flash-points I raised was the Middle East; the others are the Balkans, the Caucasus, and the Korean Peninsula. I predicted simultaneous conflicts in three of those four areas would lead to a situation where a third world war would be a major concern if not an inevitable crisis.

◊ ◊ ◊ ◊ ◊

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

Putin thinks of us in the Balkans, where we took the anti-Slavic side and bombed hell out of Serbs, dropped the Danube bridges, and generally made them miserable. Imperial Russia went to war to save the Serbs from Austria; why do we think the Russian people have forgotten that they are leaders of the pan-Slavic movement?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwqdOhF6LhE

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The U.S. Military Suffers from Affluenza.

<http://www.unz.com/article/the-u-s-military-suffers-from-affluenza/>

—————————————

Roland Dobbins

So do our universities.

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Ideologues as Journalists

In another example of an ideologue convincing some managers and swathes of the general public they’re really journalists:

<.>

MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” host Joe Scarborough Thursday momentarily blamed GOP candidate Marco Rubio’s “dirty money” for pushing GOP presidential rival Chris Christie’s numbers down to fourth place in the New Hampshire primary and his eventual decision to drop out of the race, a slip that could add fuel to the growing complaints about the morning show.

</>

https://www.newsmax.com/Headline/Joe-Scarborough-Rubio-Dark-Money-Chrisie/2016/02/11/id/713833/

What is this clown even speaking of? What dirty money? How did this “dirty money” do what he’s saying? What is this madness? This is what passes for news programming in 2016? I’d expect to see this kind of crap in some backwater with limited access to electricity not in the United States.

He might as well accuse Rubio of sending evil spirits to destroy Christie’s electoral support.

◊ ◊ ◊ ◊ ◊

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

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Subject: the gravity-wave article from PhysRevLett

https://journals.aps.org/prl/pdf/10.1103/PhysRevLett.116.061102
Stephanie Osborn

“The Interstellar Woman of Mystery”

http://www.sciencealert.com/live-update-big-gravitational-wave-announcement-is-happening-right-now
Stephanie Osborn

“The Interstellar Woman of Mystery”

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I am OUTRAGED by what this French woman describes has happened to her, her family, and her city in France.

Resident of Calais speaks. This is the death of civilization.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKAQX74yRyc

I’d title this, “The Rape of Calais”. And their own government is as much at fault as the 18,000 “migrants”, aka Muslims.

After seeing this does *ANYBODY* think we do not need a second amendment or even do not need to exercise our second amendment to its fullest?

{o.o}

Sound familiar?

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/09/10/svensmark-global-warming-stopped-and-a-cooling-is-beginning-enjoy-global-warming-while-it-lasts/
Stephanie Osborn

“The Interstellar Woman of Mystery”
http://www.Stephanie-Osborn.com

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Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

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Driving

Chaos Manor View, Tuesday, February 9, 2016

Sunday I broke a tooth, Monday was devoured by locusts and fiction, and Tuesday I spent the day at the dentist. No serious problem other than lost time and the finances, but it was annoying. The good news is I drove there, in my SUV, by myself and navigated from the parking lot to the dentist with a cane, not a walker. To those for whom this is a regular event, I can only advise you to be thankful, and contemplate that some years from now that ability may be a big deal; it certainly was for me.

Saturday night I went down to Author Services/ Galaxy Press, as a guest; they were doing a dramatic reading of L Ron Hubbard (writing as Rene Lafayette): the first Ole Doc Methuselah story, published in Astounding Science Fiction in 1947; I read it when it came out. I was in Christian Brothers College High School in Memphis at the time. The Brothers pretended not to notice I had Astounding inside one or another text book. Roberta wasn’t feeling quite up to going out, and I wasn’t daring enough to drive at night – still am not – so Michelle drove me in her car. Goo performances. Good show all around.

Having used up the day at the dentist, I’m obviously going to be brief.

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The New Hampshire primary has one glaring lesson: Neither the Republican nor the Democratic voters are very interested in returning business as usual to power. An aging Independent Socialist Senator bested – thumped – Hillary, Mr. Trump won first place among the Republicans, and while Kasich was an unexpected second on the Republican side. The top three traditional Republicans together did not out-draw Trump even with a record turn-out. I wonder if the RNC got the message, and how they will act on it; probably by doubling down on their support for Jeb Bush.

In normal times, Bush would seem the most attractive candidate; his problem is that with Jeb Bush you get all his relatives, and all of their friends; you get the Republicans who got us in this mess in the first place. That, I think, just won’t do. Of course I am prejudiced; I was a Reagan Republican Party County Chairman, and Bush The First promised “Read my lips. No new taxes.” Then he fired every Reagan supporter he could find in the Executive Branch within hours of being inaugurated, and agreed to new taxes. Read my hips…

I notice that Jeb is bringing his mother to his campaign.

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It’s late. I have a lot of interesting mail and hope to get some of it up tomorrow. I also have more on modern technology. Volume Nine of The There Will Be War anthologies will be released this week. Like all of the TWBW series, there is an introductory essay, and introductions to each story, all by me; as well as other non fiction. Volume Nine was compiled as the USSR was reeling, and the world watched: would USSR break up peacefully, or would there be nuclear war launched in the death throes?  Om Amazon sometime this week.  Look for it.

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Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

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