Evidence and Global Warming and other matters of interest Mail 685 20110728

Mail 685 Thursday, July 28, 2011

· Birth of Fire

· PFC Abdo

· Quote of the year

. Evidence and Global Warming

· Earth’s Trojan Asteroid

· The Pournelle Plan

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Birth of Fire review

Dr. Pournelle,

My review of Birth of Fire is up at Amazon:

http://www.amazon.com/review/R3L01RV57BJAZO/ref=cm_cr_dp_perm?ie=UTF8&ASIN=B005EAWPFY&nodeID=133140011&tag=&linkCode=

I had to read the book in one sitting, it was that good. Thank you!

Because Amazon is not the place for politics, there’s one thing I didn’t mention in the review. Because I didn’t realize that this was a decades old reprint, I read into it a lot of commentary on our current social and political climate. I really did think it was a comment on Bunny Inspectors and Department of Education SWAT teams and runaway taxation to pay for unaffordable government. My guess is it’s not an accident that you chose to reprint this particular book at this particular time.

I look forward to more of your back catalog on Kindle. I have every one of your books and Niven’s that they offer, and I’m eager for more.

Martin L. Shoemaker

Thank you. That is a rather perceptive review. I am glad that Birth of Fire has held up so well over the years, and you didn’t realize it was not a new work until you finished it.

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PFC Naser Jason Abdo

Dr. Pournelle:

PFC Naser Jason Abdo is not a Muslim extremist, he is apparently a possessor of child porn who got caught and was going to be court martialed for it. He had requested and obtained conscientious objector status based on his faith. Problem is, the Army put that on hold pending his court martial.

The “blow up Fort Hood” thing was apparently an afterthought. Maybe he thought he’d get 40 underage virgins if he died for Jihad?

Lee

I had not heard that and I don’t know. I would not think that making bombs was part of a clever way to avoid prosecution for posession of child pornography. Incidentally, I don’t really think that posession of pornographym should be a punishable crime or that making it a crime is constitutional. Looking at pictures isn’t a crime. Acting on what you see is. PFC Abdo is welcome to spend his life looking at any pictures he likes if that were left to me. Making bombs is another matter.

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Quote of the year so far

“If you think you have a right
to force me to pay for your health care,
then why don’t you have a right
to force me to pick your cotton?”

Just controversial enough to make people think.

Would make a good bumper sticker. A bit too big for a ball cap, alas.

J

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We have a number of new items on Global Warming and Climate Change Models

Global Warming Fraud Update

Well, more NASA data against anthropogenic climate change.  Time and common sense strike again?  We knew the polar bear data was fake, but now the scientist making that claim is — finally — under investigation according to the Associated Press:

<.> Just five years ago, Charles Monnett was one of the scientists whose observation that several polar bears had drowned in the Arctic Ocean helped galvanize the global warming movement. Now, the wildlife biologist is on administrative leave and facing accusations of scientific misconduct. The federal agency where he works told him he’s being investigated for "integrity issues," but a watchdog group believes it has to do with the 2006 journal article about the bear. </> http://news.yahoo.com/apnewsbreak-arctic-scientist-under-investigation-082217993.html

But, I digress, here is the NASA data I promised – or a Forbes article about it.  :

“NASA satellite data from the years 2000 through 2011 show the Earth’s atmosphere is allowing far more heat to be released into space than alarmist computer models have predicted, reports a new study in the peer-reviewed science journal Remote Sensing. The study indicates far less future global warming will occur than United Nations computer models have predicted, and supports prior studies indicating increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide trap far less heat than alarmists have claimed. Study co-author Dr. Roy Spencer, a principal research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville and U.S. Science Team Leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer flying on NASA’s Aqua satellite, reports that real-world data from NASA’s Terra satellite contradict multiple assumptions fed into alarmist computer models.” http://news.yahoo.com/nasa-data-blow-gaping-hold-global-warming-alarmism-192334971.html

I’m sure you know how to undertake research and get to the studies if you have questions about the data. For other readers, consider the article first and then search in a library using academic and proprietary research services. Many public libraries have resources like Ebsco, ProQuest, etc. ——–

Most Respectfully, Joshua Jordan, KSC Percussa Resurgo

Roy Spencer has a number of good criticisms of the Climate Change Models. I do not talk about frauds; but I do think that it is bad science. The models depend on data accuracies that they cannot prove, and now the evidence is that the Earth radiates more energy to space than the models suppose. That changes their predictions, but I don’t see many changes in the models.

Real data may tell the tale!

http://news.yahoo.com/nasa-data-blow-gaping-hold-global-warming-alarmism-192334971.html

John F. Gothard, Ph.D.

I would have thought that real data was the essence of science, but in the climate modelling game that does not appear to be the case.

New NASA Data Blow Gaping Hole In Global Warming Alarmism – Yahoo! News

Jerry,

This is definitive but should surprise no one given the fundamental physics of radiative heat transfer. The equilibrium temp of the Earth is proportional to the Solar Constant, the Earth’s Albedo and IR Emissivity raised to the one-fourth power. I know even the global warming alarmist understand this, but they ignore or trivialize mechanisms that increase effective emmissivity, particularly the process of evaporation, convection and condensation over the tropical oceans that effectively short circuits the greenhouse effect.

http://news.yahoo.com/nasa-data-blow-gaping-hold-global-warming-alarmism-192334971.html

Jim Crawford

And what we tell you three times is true. Apparently the Earth loses more energy to space than the models assume. One wonders about the accuracy of the other transfer parameters in the models, including earth core to ocean. And the IPCC models know from nothing about clouds.

At some point we might have an objective study about the ideal level of CO2 in the atmosphere. We might be able to remove some of the CO2 with biological engineering systems; we certainly cannot, short of conquest of developing nations, shut down the CO2 sources. And conquering China has not, historically, been a good thing for would be empires. Is it the destiny of the US to keep everyone else in poverty so that they will not emit CO2?

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I never thought the liberals would shriek in such an asinine fashion and it’s Pelosi!  She must be on the way out; she has to know how ridiculous this sounds:

<.> Nancy Pelosi on today’s vote: "What we’re trying to do is save the world from the Republican budget. We’re trying to save life on this planet as we know it today." </> http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/pelosis-reactionary-liberalism_577709.html

Trying to save life as we know it on this planet today from a lower number of promised, increased spending?  Saving the world from more heavily taxed Americans who might spend their money doing nefarious things like ruining life as we know it on this planet today?  The world is at threat from a Republican budget?  I am beginning to think that when you fail acting class and don’t get to Hollywood that you might end up in Washington.

It gets better!

Rep. James Clyburn (D-SC): "I’ve said time and time again, if the President gets up to August 2nd, without a piece of legislation, he should not allow this country to go into default. He should sign an Executive Order invoking the 14th Amendment and send that to all the governmental agencies for us to continue to pay our bills. He could do that with a stroke of a pen.

"We’ve seen many big things done in history that way. I’ve joked with my staff the other day, ‘tele me what was the bill number of the Emancipation Proclamation.’ It was an Executive Order. We integrated the armed services by Executive Order. We integrated public schools by Executive Order. Sometimes executives must order that things get done." http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2011/07/28/clyburn_likens_executive_order_to_raise_debt_ceiling_to_emancipation_proclamation.html

If you are against the President’s budget then you must be racist! You are a holocaust denier if you don’t do what he says! I can’t believe you would take a position against mine; you are an evil person responsible for the deaths of millions! This is all the same crap Marxists pull on the streets. I saw videos of them doing this crap. This is the same crap the President did from day one. When will this Don King con get exposed to enough people for them to stop the insanity? I do not know.

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

I am not astonished that Clyburn would call for rule by executive action, but I do not think the Congress will surrender meekly.

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Subj: Earth’s Trojan Asteroid Companion

http://www.latimes.com/news/science/la-sci-trojan-asteroid-20110728,0,284121.story

jim

Cool news,

http://www.latimes.com/news/science/la-sci-trojan-asteroid-20110728,0,284121.story

My first thought was that visiting a Trojan would take more Delta Vee than a Hohman Transfer to Mars. Then I realized that all you needed to do was boost a ship into an orbit with a slightly longer or shorter period (brain cramp, is this a trailing or leading Trojan?), let the ship drift to the Trojan object, then match trajectories. Of course the Moon is closer, takes less time and Delta-Vee, and we no how to build mass drivers.

Jim Crawford

PS, it was amusing to have you refer to the Nebish sharps committee.

LaGrangian poits are fun…

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The Pournelle Plan = The Penny Plan

Jerry:

You should check out Connie Mack’s "Penny Plan". It does what you’ve specified, in that each year it starts from the assumption of zero built-in increases, and each year calls for true cuts equaling one penny on the dollar of the full budget from the previous year (hence the name "Penny Plan"). After 6 years of that, it caps spending at 18% of GDP, and the budget becomes fully balanced in the eighth year.

Combine that with a Balanced Budget amendment (to get around the issue of future Congresses not being bound by the plan), and it’s a pretty simple and relatively painless solution to the problem.

But since that makes far too much sense, I predict it will go nowhere fast… but I thought you’d like to know that there ARE some like-minded individuals in Congress that align with your thoughts.

Barry Kearns

Subject: Graph of Budget Projections and Actuals

Great graphic showing Federal budget projections and actuals. Guess what? The reality is always worse than the prediction. So, in the future…

http://flowingdata.com/2011/07/26/how-the-deficit-got-so-big/

Dwayne Phillips

Very revealing. Thanks!

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Hope, Change, and 99% View 685 20110728

 

View 685 Thursday, July 28, 2011

· Hope and Change

· Sowing the wind

· A penny saved is a penny earned

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The Land of Hope and Glory

I am as weary of the phony Deficit Debate as everyone else is. The President says we must compromise: we must raise the debt ceiling to accommodate the perpetual increases in the size of government and deficit; the term must extend past the next election; and he will generously compromise by allowing the perpetual increases to add to the deficit without requiring that we give him more tax revenue in exchange for his indulgence.

Welcome to Hope and Change.

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Sowing the wind.

We don’t do breaking news, but it isn’t so much news as settling “when”: there has been another plot by a Muslim soldier to kill his comrades in protest against being “forced” to participate in the unjust wars in the Middle East.

U.S. officials told ABC News an AWOL serviceman, identified by the FBI as a Private First Class Naser Jason Abdo, was arrested Wednesday after making a purchase at Guns Galore in Killeen, Texas, the same ammunition store where Maj. Nidal Hasan purchased the weapons he allegedly used to gun down 13 people and wound 32 others on Nov. 5, 2009.

As to why it isn’t news:

Abdo told ABC News in 2010 he was Muslim and should not have to participate in what he called an "unjust war" in the Middle East.

"Any Muslim who knows his religion or maybe takes into account what his religion says can find out very clearly why he should not participate in the U.S. military," Abdo said then.

Welcome to the joys of diversity and entitlement. America was not built as a society of entitlement and diversity. There was a founding culture. It was a culture of tolerance, but tolerance is not the same as the celebration of “diversity.” Immigrants were always encouraged to assimilate. They were not forced to do so, but the public system tolerated diversity; it didn’t force it. There were crèches in the public square at Christmas. Later we added the menorah. Almost all public ceremonies were opened by an invocation by a Protestant minister. Over time we added a Catholic priest (and of course some communities always had included Catholics, although most had not). Later we added a rabbi. All of this was to show some deference to the American culture. We would tolerate diversity as a monument to our liberty but we did not set the public hangman the task of destroying the crèche in the public square. We did not use the courts as an engine of destruction of our culture.

Then we began to sow the wind. All cultures are equal. There is no American culture as such.

We have coupled diversity with egality and added entitlements. We have sown the wind.

And we reap the whirlwind. Nidal Hasan and Naser Abdo are not the last of the pale riders.

Addenda

Please do not point out to me that the history of the United States is filled with stories of intolerance, and particularly regional intolerances. Yes: but we managed to hold things together. National unity is not a given. Patriotism is not free. For an example relevant to today’s story: imagine an Amish soldier who insists on his right to be part of the Army, but that the Courts prevent the Army from using motorized vehicles anywhere near him since the sight of them offends him; now imagine a court granting that, and the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals upholding that decision.

We can endure regional diversity. The abortion issue is an example. There is no national consensus. Shall we send armed agents to enforce whatever happens to be the opinion of a majority at the time? Shall the Army insist that Mother Superior perform abortions in St. Joseph’s, or jail abortionists who perform them? Left to the states the issue is endurable.

The goal is a society that holds together, not one of some ideal perfection.

 

 

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The 99% Solution

I have several comments on yesterday’s essay on the Deficit Dance pointing our that my 1% budget cut plan is part of a proposal sometimes known as “The Penny Plan” or the Mack One Percent Plan. I will have more on that in Mail. I will point out that I proposed this to Newt Gingrich when he became Speaker, and there was some discussion of it as a means to get us out of the automatic government growth that is built into the budget process.

It is important to understand that no Congress has the power to bind a future Congress. If this Congress cannot get us out of the automatic increases in entitlements, another can. It may require replacing every single Senator, Member of Congress, the President and Vice President, and every senior civil servant in Washington, but it is possible simply not to fund “non-discretionary entitlements” . The Constitution is very clear: tax and revenue bills have to originate in the House, and “No Money shall be drawn from the Treasury, but in Consequence of Appropriations made by Law; and a regular Statement and Account of the Receipts and Expenditures of all public Money shall be published from time to time.”

A bill that appropriates $1.00 for all services pertinent to the enforcement of ObamaCare? But it need not be so drastic. A bill that says that this year’s appropriation for any agency shall not exceed 99% of the amounts appropriated in the previous year removes the “non discretionary” entitlement of 108% that is now built into the budgetary system.

Let the House pass such an Appropriate Bill, and stick to it. Insert that into every appropriation that is sent to the President. No exceptions.

This didn’t happen when I proposed it back in the last Millennium, but perhaps it is time?

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What Should We Do? View 685 20110727

View 685 Wednesday, July 27, 2011

· Budget Cuts

· Debt Limit History

· Real Cuts

· What Should Boehner Do?

· Whales vs. school lunches

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There Are No Cuts

Everyone is talking about Draconian cuts to the budget. The President won’t sign the Boehner Plan because of the cuts. Yet there are no cuts in that plan or in any plan proposed.

There are no cuts. None. Zip, Nada, Bupkis, Zero. None.

We need to understand how “budget cuts” are measured. The base line budget projects a $9.5 Trillion Dollar increase in spending over the next ten years. Any reduction in this increase in spending is officially a “cut.” Thus the Republican Deficit Plan mandates an approximate “cut” of $1 Trillion over the next decade in exchange for a rise in the Deficit Limit of $2 Trillion. Note that the $1 T “cut” isn’t assured, since it takes place in the future, and one Congress cannot bind another. (Note that. One Congress cannot bind a future Congress. It might be well to remember this.) But even if the $1 Trillion “cut” is faithfully carried out, the effect is that there will be an $8.5 Trillion increase in spending (and thus in Debt) over the next decade.

Put it this way. If Congress were to freeze spending: we will spend next year precisely what we spent this year on each project, none of them increased and none decreased – if Congress were to do that, the result would officially be a $9.5 Trillion cut. It would be a cut in government pay, in school lunches, in Medicare and Medicaid, to the Army and Navy, to the DOE SWAT team and the Department of Agriculture Pet Bunny Inspectors, a cut to Head Start, a cut the FDA, a cut to – well, you get the idea. Not spending more money every year is a cut, and a freeze on spending is a $9.5 Trillion Cut in Federal Spending. Cuts to school lunches, Medicare, Medicaid – well, we’ve said all that. Not spending more is a cut.

It hasn’t always been this way. Back in the 1960’s a “cut” was actually a cut; if a department’s budget got cut it meant that it got less money. But since the budget acts of the 70’s Federal spending automatically increases year after year and any reduction in that increase is scored as a cut.

So: if we adopt the Boehner Plan, we get what amounts to a $10 Trillion increase in spending over the next decade. And that, we are told, is the best we can hope for, and we ought to wheedle the Democrats and the President graciously to concede to give it to us good and hard.

Let me repeat that because while most of you know it, some don’t, and those who haven’t thought of it will find it hard to believe. A freeze in spending: a mandate that no department of government spend more next year than it spent this year; will be reported as a $9.5 Trillion cut. If Boehner gets all he asks for and then some, say a $1.5 Trillion cut over the next decade, he will have locked in an $8 Trillion increase in government expenditures (and thus the Deficit) over the next ten years. And the Democrats will decry the Draconian cuts in school lunches, education spending, Medicare, etc., etc. And at the moment the “non partisan Congressional Budget Office” believes that Boehner Plan would only “cut” $0.85 Trillion over ten years, meaning $850 Billion, meaning $85 Billion/year. The United States borrows $100 Billion a month.

There are never any actual cuts in spending. No one is proposing any. There are only temporary reductions in spending increases. No Plan by either Party contemplates any actual cut in spending. We are arguing over how much more we will let the deficit rise: $8 Trillion or $10 Trillion. If it only rises by $8 Trillion that will be counted a great victory with a $2 Trillion cut. Be prepared to pay.

Salve, Sclave.

The Limited Debt

A brief history: the debt limit in 2006 was   $8.2 Trillion.

It is now (2011)   $14.3 Trillion.

When this Dance is done the debt limit will be  $16.3 Trillion

In 2021 it will have to be somewhat more than $23.0 Trillion, and will continue to rise.

The Pournelle Plan

The Republican leadership proposes at best a $8.5 Trillion increase in federal spending over the next ten years. That is advertised as a Trillion Dollar Cut.

I propose that we not only freeze Federal spending, but impose a 1% reduction in all payments. That’s all of them. Welfare, Medicare, Medicaid, school lunches, whale watchers, game wardens, and the rest of it. No adjustments. That will be hard on military families, and I know it, but that’s only for a year while the various departments readjust their budgets.

The following year each department other than the military is subject to a 2% budget cut, to be allocated as they see fit: reducing payments, laying off people, reducing pension obligations, whatever has to be done. At that time we reset the conditions for getting Welfare and Social Security: raise the automatic age by one month per month until it is 68, not 65. Adjust the non-retirement payments – disabilities, dependents, everything that people get who have not paid into Social Security to get it – by some small amount per year as we raise the qualification requirements for getting into those programs.

And we search through all the government programs to find those which we simply cannot afford so long as we have to borrow money to do them. This includes not only the obviously silly ones like Pet Bunny Inspectors, but much more importantly, the various regulations: is the economy strong enough to afford this kind of regulation? The assumption is that it is not: that we cannot afford it. As for example the FDA testing of “effectiveness” of drugs. Safety is fine. Testing for safety is fine. Accumulating data is fine. Certifying “effectiveness” is controversial to begin with, and interferes with people’s right to be damn fools. Freedom is the freedom to do things without your permission. Drugs will carry, in large readable letters, the warning that the effectiveness of this product has not been tested by the FDA. The FDA can enforce truth: if this says it contains snake oil it does in fact contain oil squeezed out of a snake – but makes no commitment about its effectiveness for any purpose. Take at your own risk. That’s freedom.

That sort of thing. Find things the government is doing that may or may not be a good idea, but which we can’t afford when we have to borrow money to do it. We can borrow money for investment, but most of that infrastructure investment is better made by the states anyway. We have already built the Federal Highways and the Interstate Highway. There are other essentials, but they need to be done in priority with the understanding that we have to borrow the money to do them.

Those can and should include genuine investments in technology development including space technology. Now that Shuttle is no longer eating NASA alive to feed the standing army it might be possible to have some genuine manned space development that isn’t built to pay 22,000 development scientists and technicians. We had that chance after the Challenger disaster, when the Citizens Advisory Council – Chairman J. E. Pournelle. PH.D. – urged that we not rebuild Challenger, but build a genuinely reusable manned ship, no tiles, no wings, lifting body, Shuttle Main Engine to run at 95% of maximum thrust instead of 103% thus meaning it is refillable not rebuildable, etc. This was endorsed by the whole Council which included the top space scientists and developers in the country; but instead they rebuilt the old bird, because the mission of Shuttle was to employ the standing army.

I am rambling. I haven’t the authority to propose anything. I may even be off my head, but I continue to insist that it is time to have a genuine prioritization of federal expenditures. Get rid of the stuff we can’t afford. And shared sacrifices must include the recipients of entitlements and government employees.

What Should Boehner Do?

We have to get through this. We will probably do it with some variant of the Boehner Plan. I hate that, but the one thing Boehner must not do is pretend he has made cuts. He should be honest. “I have got an agreement to raise the deficit $9 Trillion instead of $10 Trillion over the next decade, assuming that the Democrats actually agree. We have cut nothing. We will raise the Debt Ceiling because the President gives us no choice.” Say that, not that you have “compromised” and made budget cuts.

Be honest with us, Mr. Boehner. I understand that forcing the President to shut down the government would be a very dangerous thing, and most Americans do not want to see that happen. Just be honest with them: make it clear that this is no cut, that spending continues, that borrowing continues, and we have not got rid of any of the things we can’t afford. Tell us the blinking truth.

Whale Watch

Today’s LA Times tells us of a Federal program involving research ships and research aircraft: it studies whales and how they are being killed by ships colliding with them in the Santa Barbara Channel. In the past decade about 6 whales/year have been killed (that we know of. The number may be as high as 100, although that is unlikely).

It doesn’t give the cost of the program, but I’d guess about $10 million a year. It’s certainly worthwhile. It’s something I’d like to see done. And we can’t afford it. Or can we? If you have to choose, free school lunches or research on accidental deaths of whales in the Santa Barbara Channel, which would you choose?

It is that sort of choice that needs to be made when you have to borrow the money for these programs. And it is that sort of choice that no one is making.

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Khan, Calculus, and SWAT Mail 682 20110726

Mail 685 Tuesday, July 26, 2011

· On Peggy Noonan

· NASA Swat

· Khan Academy and Education

· Learning Calculus

Do not miss the item on the Khan Academy

Birth of Fire by Jerry Pournelle is now available for Nook as well as Amazon.

 

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Government Job Security

"In the Los Angeles School District some 7 teachers have been dismissed for incompetence in a dozen years."

And in case you missed the story last week about Federal job security:

"The federal government fired 0.55% of its workers in the budget year that ended Sept. 30 — 11,668 employees in its 2.1 million workforce. Research shows that the private sector fires about 3% of workers annually for poor performance, says John Palguta, former research chief at the federal Merit Systems Protection Board, which handles federal firing disputes."

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2011-07-18-fderal-job-security_n.htm

Karl

It’s pretty well the same in most school districts. The purpose of the education unions is to protect all the members. That should be no surprise: but it should also be the objective of the school boards and funding authorities to protect the children, not bad teachers. Teacher competence is difficult to rate except at the ends of the spectrum: that is, it’s never very hard to determine who are the 10% worst teachers, and it’s never very hard to determine who are the 10% best. It would be a lot cheaper to fire the worst 10% and divide their salaries among the 10% best. The schools would be more effective, and there would be fewer legal expenses. You’d think someone might try that.

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WH: US in imminent threat of default

Jerry,

It’s clear to me, that such a pronouncement from the Whitehouse is nothing short of an out and out declaration of a joint-political suicide pact. This would be a perfect storm cover for our numerous enemies to give us a pearl harbor up the wazoo, especially with a POTUS who wants to take his football and go home. This, coupled with a speaker of the house who seems to be a poster child for mental illness. ( or should that be speaker of animals, ala’ RingWorld?)

We are long past reaping the harvest. In the words of Robert Heinlein, we are now going to "eat what is set before us" I always knew that, like ancient Rome, the USA was destined to follow that path, however, Rome took centuries, we are doing it in my short half-century lifetime.

Mark Bender

Perhaps it is not as bad as all that, but we are certainly moving in that direction. Do understand that Emperors are usually “friends of the people”, not old conservatives. On the other hand, Julius Caesar rather clearly had good intentions, perhaps to restructure the Republic which was still in dire straits. Impossible to know. Caesar was generous to his enemies. His friend and general Mark Anthony was not. And Augustus allowed Cicero to be on the Proscription List.

When the Republic collapses here, political enemies are more likely to be imprisoned for lieing to a Federal officer than to be executed. Or of course for tax fraud.

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Ms Noonan’s opinion

Hello Jerry,

"She seems to believe that Obama is sincere but misguided. I hope she is right. "

Of course you HOPE that she is right. As do I.

However, I cannot possibly imagine that, after watching Obama and his handlers in action for more than two years, you BELIVE that she is right.

I realize that it is unnecessary to ascribe to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity and incompetence, but, given the facts as we know them, Mr. Occam and his razor pretty much jump competent malevolence to the head of the ‘What the heck are they doing?’ line.

Naturally malevolence only applies if you believe that turning our country into a Marxist/communist/socialist/fascist/tyrannical dictatorship (At least ONE of the preceding applies to EVERY policy of the Obama administration.), as the Obamunists have been doing 24/7/365 since the day they took office, is evidence of malevolence. Unfortunately, many, maybe a majority, of our fellow citizens do not. And therein lies the problem.

Bob Ludwick

I think you are insufficiently schooled in the undergraduate logic of the Liberals, most of whom genuinely think they are saving mankind. True believers seldom believe they are malicious.

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Subject: Who the President pays

Jerry, you wrote, "Obama is making it clear that he prefers Bunny Inspectors to paying the Army." Of course he does. If President Obama is anything, he’s a politician, and he’s going to make sure his people get paid before anybody else. The Bunny Inspectors know that they owe their jobs him and his party, and they’ll vote Democrat come hell or high water to make sure they keep them. The Army, on the other hand, tends to be conservative and Republican. Few, if any of them are likely to vote for him under any circumstances. Of course, doing everything he can to help them, their families and the millions of vets in this country might buy him a few votes, but that’s not how he thinks. If they’re not part of his core constituency, he hasn’t the slightest interest in pleasing them, because he can’t see the long-term benefits.

Joe

The question is whether we can get to more elections, and who gets to vote in them.

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NASA SWAT

Jerry,

I’m informed that the NASA SWAT Team at least has a verifiable valuable mission in terms of protecting shipments of hazardous cargo and protecting very high profile public events (e.g. Shuttle lau…well, perhaps, never mind now) from terrorist attack.

http://www.nasa.gov/returntoflight/main/swat_feature.html

I first learned about them in an article on their weaponry (hardly remarkable) in a gun magazine a couple of years ago.

Whether that mission is better contracted to other law enforcement or to private security, further deponent sayeth not.

Note the following on Google search:

"Department of the Interior SWAT" turns up numerous comments (mostly blog posts but some credible sources including washingtonpost.com and rushlimgaugh.com) about Interior Department SWAT teams supposedly deployed to the Gulf during the oil spill crisis.

"Department of Agriculture SWAT team" turns up references to such a team from the State government of Ohio, raiding unsanitary farm operations.

"Department of Homeland SWAT Team" turns up reference to DHS training of state and local SWAT teams. There are probably more.

Jim

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NASA swat team

Of course they do. Kennedy started gearing up when the first shuttle arrived. I saw brands of sub-machine guns I had never seen before in the hands of our rent a cops. We hired so many sworn officers from around Florida, that the Sherifs started to complain. They were not organized into a an official SWAT team, but a large percentage of them were heavily armed. It’s the Iron Law in action that eventually they would come around to a SWAT team, probably one for each center. You can make a pretty good argument that Kennedy should have something like a SWAT or crisis response team, they were a pretty good terrorist target. HQ on the other hand, not so much.

Of course the joke was, they had all of those guns, but only one bullet. They had to send for the bullet.

Phil=

One might ask whether the Administrator of NASA or any of his deputies has any necessary training or even interest in Constitutional Law, the rights of citizens, or the problems of running a Federal law enforcement agency. We have Senatorial Hearings and Confirmation for a reason: someone should be held accountable. When we have a Federal Case of a Federal armed agent harrassing a citizen and exceeding authority, whose head should roll? I don’t want the Administrator of NASA to be an expert on law and order. I would prefer that he know something about rockets.

Federal law enforcement can generally be contracted to local authorities, who can use the experience and revenue; and if they are not competent there are other measures. As you say, it is the Iron Law in action.

Jerry, I think you should challenge your readers to identify all federal SWAT teams outside of DOD and DOJ.

John from Waterford

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Putting a chimney on a Hummer

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htarm/articles/20110725.aspx

As a physicist and engineer, my first thought was "Wow, why didn’t I think of that?!" An inspired application of the principle of least resistance.

Steve Chu

As you say.

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After Killings, Unease in Norway, Where Few Police Carry Guns – NYTimes.com

Jerry,

Gun Control really works!

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/26/world/europe/26police.html

It is ironic that I’m rereading Half Past Human and The Godwhale by TJ Bass. The Norwegians remind me of Bass’ fictional Nebishes, four toes rather than five, four feet tall, and neutered.

Jim Crawford.

Next we will have a sharps committee to determine who can own kitchen knives?

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

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How Khan Academy Is Changing the Rules of Education

Jerry

How’s this for a switch – you listen to lectures at home, then do your homework with your teacher at school:

http://www.wired.com/magazine/2011/07/ff_khan/all/1

So Bill Gates’ kids are learning math from this guy, which resulted in a $1.5M gran from Gates and a $2M grant from Google. It’s definitely fascinating.

Ed

= =

And more:

Calculus: an old time alternative, and a new one

Dear Dr. Pournelle:

You have recently written of the need of those American H.S. students learning science, engineering, etc., first to learn mathematics in general, and calculus in particular.

I have two recommendations which may perhaps be useful to filling that need, one an old method, and the other a new one.

The old method can be found here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calculus_Made_Easy

That wikipedia link gives one any number of public domain links to the original book by Silvanus P. Thompson. I believe you have referred to this estimable tome a time or two before. I have found it rather useful myself.

The second, newer, method can be found here:

http://www.khanacademy.org

This is a website developed by a financial wizard with multiple degrees from MIT, who started by putting up YouTube clips to explain Algebra to his cousin, and which has since grown to more than 2300 clips (ten to twenty minutes each), which explain mathematics from arithmetic to linear algebra, differential equations and calculus, and such sundry other matters as biology, physics, economics and finance. A fair appraisal of his website can be found here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khan_academy

I hope this might be of some help to your readers. These have certainly helped me.

Very truly yours,

Bernard Brandt

Thanks. It is indeed useful. For this with high school graduates: bribe them to go through Calculus Made Easy. Five hundred dollars cash if you get through the book and do all the exercises. It’s a bit like using Mrs. Pournelle’s reading program before they start school to make certain they can read: the public schools may or may not teach them, but reading is too important to be left to strangers. The same is true of the ability to use Calculus for practical matters; it’s useful for the rest of your life. And the Khan Academy is well worth the attention of any student or parent.

And I am not sure what to make of this:

‘Khan’s programmer, Ben Kamens, has heard from teachers who’ve seen Khan Academy presentations and loved the idea but wondered whether they could modify it “to stop students from becoming this advanced.”’

<http://www.wired.com/magazine/2011/07/ff_khan/all/1>

Roland Dobbins

In any event it is worth your attention.

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"By showing that single photons cannot travel faster than the speed of light, our results bring a closure to the debate on the true speed of information carried by a single photon."

<http://news.discovery.com/space/time-travel-impossible-photon-110724.html>

—–

Roland Dobbins

Niven among others points out that if there is time travel, at some point someone will use time travel to travel back and uninvent it, so there won’t be time travel. And Heinlein had much fun with “All You Zombies”, as did David Gerrold.

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‘Some believe that it was built as a dwelling for helpful goblins.’

<http://www.spiegel.de/international/zeitgeist/0,1518,druck-775348,00.html>

——

Roland Dobbins

Or perhaps the Dawn Elves…

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