Shared Sacrifices and liberty islands 20110817

View 688 Wednesday, August 17, 2011

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Now Obama has taken up the “shared sacrifice” arguments. All we have to do is soak the rich and our financial problems will be over. After all, Warren Buffett has said so. The President finds that refreshing. There are those who say that Buffett was not entirely accurate in his analysis. The Wall Street Journal even has an editorial on the subject. It’s worth your attention. But leaving out Buffett’s arguments, there are other considerations. Is the purpose of taxing the rich more to raise revenue or simply because we can do it, and we want more equality?

The Journals also points out that if the goal is equalization, “Obamanomics has been a raging success.” I haven’t been able to find a proper link to that article, but the title is “Millionaires Go Missing.” (There is a similar article about Maryland missing millionaires here.)

The important notion is the amounts involved. According to the journal:

2009 Tax information:

Tax Returns

$200,000 and above   3,924,000
$1 million and above      237,000
$10 million and above        8,274

Taxes Paid

$200,000 and above   $434 Billion
$1 million and above      178
$10 million and above      54

This is way down from 2007 when the numbers for the three categories were 4.6 million, 390 thousand, and 18.4 thousand respectively. In 2007 the 18,394 people who made $10 million a year paid $111 billion in taxes, about double what we got from the 8,274 who made that much in 2009. That is the point of the Journal article: if you want more money, you need more rich people. The poor don’t pay much in the way of taxes.

If Buffett wants to donate money to the government, he’s certainly free to do so: but in fact we all suspect that more good would come from his deciding where to invest his money, or on what enterprises he ought to spend it – including simply turning it over to the Gates Foundation – than would come from sending it to the government where we will cycle it through the SEIU. We all know that if the government gets money it spends it, generally on hiring more government workers. It doesn’t reduce the deficit. There are never any deals that actually reduce spending, even on Bunny Inspectors, who will duly get their raises. I note that the three senior officials who approved the scheme to sell guns to be delivered to drug cartels have been promoted despite the undesirable outcome of what they approved. Parkinson’s Laws apply to the government: it’s expenses rise to exceed income, and there will be exponential growth in departments independent of the amount of work those departments do.  This always happens, and the only way to stop it is to control spending – which seldom happens. If a government activity exists it will have strong advocates for doing it and expanding it; while there won’t be many who oppose it. Look again at Bunny Inspectors.

Giving the government more money to spend will result in the growth of government to exceed that new income. It always works that way. The only way to actually cut government is to force it to cut programs, either by reducing their cost, or by eliminating them. I didn’t see any such proposals in the Deficit Dance. Nothing about reducing regulatory activities.

Note too that any proposal to reduce regulation always gets the response that the first program to be eliminated will be the control of putting arsenic in the water, or industrial pollution running rampant by dumping sewage upstream.. When it is answered that no, we don’t think that ought to be eliminated but – the argument is cut off in mid sentence. The rest of the sentence would have been “Yes, but just because you can detect something doesn’t mean it is at a dangerous level; surely the level of enforcement can be discussed? Surely we can tolerate some levels of pollution when the result is an increase in employment? Surely we can discuss this. But it is never discussed. It is the same with the city budgets, where the first thing proposed for elimination is the police and the second the first grade.

The United States managed to survive for a very long time with a much smaller and less active federal government. It could do so again, but none of the Deficit Dance proposals I know of even considered the notion that we might actually cut the size of government, not just cut its rate of growth in half. (And cutting the rate of growth in half would have been considered an intolerable cut with accusations of balancing the budget on the backs of the poor.)

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I note that Peter Thiel has invested some of his billions in the concept of “Islands of Liberty”, sovereign ocean living platforms. I explored some of that concept in early stories, and for a while I was on the board of the Ocean Living Foundation which looked into engineering factors and even cast a few experimental designs onto the waters, so to speak. Such places can exist in an orderly world. Historically the attempt to found a new Republic has been difficult because someone else will want it. In the Caribbean there were a couple of independent city states in the Golden Age of Piracy, but they were subsumed into existing Imperial schemes as colonies, and went through the usual history of West Indies colonies. Some are now independent nations, some in the British Commonwealth. Others are “Overseas Regions” of France, which is essentially the same status that Algeria had until wars – war of allegiance, war of independence, civil war – ended that.

My point being that I wish the libertarians well, but I have less confidence in the international community allowing them to exist. I can see them being “defended” by an international peace keeping force that levies taxes on them to pay for that defense – might be an interesting story to write. And of course I had some sort of scheme of my own in some of my early stories.

I wish them well. Maybe the US Navy could help…

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Soaking the rich, distributism, no child left behind Mail 688 20110815

Mail 688 Monday, August 15, 2011

· Regulations

· Letter From England

· No Child Left Behind and the testing quandry

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In View I asked if anyone in Washington took the situation seriously. I have some mail.

Job-Killing Regulations

Jerry,

What are these “Job-Killing Regulations” you and the “Party of No” keep harping about? Why can’t you or someone enumerate and expound on these “Job-Killing Regulations” instead of just spitting out the words?

Consumers create jobs. We need more consumers.

Who (in his right mind) is going to hire more workers if they can’t sell all the products they are producing with the workers they already have on the payroll? It isn’t a lack of regulations that creates jobs, it is an empty warehouse at the factory that creates jobs. If the product is selling so fast that the warehouse is staying empty and there are back-orders on the books, the powers-that-be at the factory are going to put on more workers, regulations or no. Profit is king.

And read the Warren Buffett Op Ed piece in the August 14 NYT. Lo and behold! Taxing the rich doesn’t kill jobs, either! He even uses numbers.

Bruce

So clearly we don’t have a problem. The environmental regulations don’t have an effect or if they do it is not much; national minimum wages applying everywhere and under every condition are a good way to manage things; naming alcoholism a disability and requiring employers to keep drunks on the job are not an undue burden; none of this needs examining. All’s well, and Warren Buffet thinks taxes aren’t too high. And no one can enumerate just what regulations are harmful. It’s all just spewing out words.

Well, a day. Perhaps I have been mistaken, and am just spewing out words, and there are no problems.

Taxing the Rich

Jerry,

You’ll forgive me if I put just a tad more credence to Warren Buffett’s opinion of taxing the rich than to yours.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_WARREN_BUFFETT_TAXES?SITE=ORAST&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

Bruce

I have no great objection to decreasing the large gap between rich and poor, but I do have an objection to raising government revenue by soaking the rich. If you want to make a case for distributism, in which enormous fortunes are confiscated and distributed evenly among the population, I will listen, and even find you some favorable arguments for having a smaller gap between rich and poor: but I will continue to object to having a larger percentage of the GNP go to government. It is the size and power of government that concerns me as much as anything else. I do not want to feed the beast.

More, I do not want to encourage entitlements; I do not think a Republic can survive when those who pay little or no tax determine the size of government and the entitlements to the citizens. I do not want to encourage a society in which all men are paid for existing, and no man must pay for his sins – or for his dinner, for that matter.

I don’t even object to the dole and the creation of a social class that does not work and does not intend to work, which is entirely subsidized by those who do produce – so long as that class forfeits its political control. You will argue that if that happens, those who control the government will not give enough to the non-producers; that only the entitled can determine how much they are entitled to. The counter argument is that only those paying the taxes should be represented when it comes to fixing the taxes; that there needs to be a minimum tax paid before you get to vote on just what the taxpayers will give you.

Buffett may well know better than me what taxes he can pay and what taxes his peers can pay and still sustain a large economy; I do not think he is better acquainted with political philosophy and history than I am (and certainly not more so than the Framers of the Constitution of 1787).

The exponential growth of government, financed by exponential growth of debt, is pretty well unprecedented in American history. The exponential growth of rewards for the nomenclatura – the new ruling classes – is not unprecedented in history although it is unprecedented in American history. None of this will much affect Warren Buffett and Bill Gates, nor indeed will it have great effects on those who earn tens of millions of dollars a year. Neither Gates nor Buffett (nor Rush Limbaugh for that matter) would experience all that much change in their lives if they were despoiled of half of their wealth, or 90% of it for that matter. Would the nation be better off if there were no billionaires? The case can be argued; but simply taking their money (a one time bonanza for government) would not solve our debt problems, and using it to increase those entitled to even more, to grow the number of government employees, raise their pay, raise their benefits, raise their pensions is not really likely to make this a better country.

“I am Covetousness, begotten of an old churl in a leather bag.” What is beyond the dreams of avarice? Nothing, actually. The habit of ameliorating your crises by despoiling the wealthy – begin with the idle rich – is indeed a habit. And next it leads to despoiling the productive to benefit the non-productive. Raising taxes feeds a beast that never relents.

We already have about as many who pay no income tax as those who do. We have not yet reached the point where a majority actually receive money through the so-called earned income adjustments, but we are headed there. At some point the spending has to stop. The “balanced” approach in which the spending continues to rise (perhaps just not so fast as before) while taxes rise and size of government increases has been tried and fails. Raising taxes, whether on rich or poor, will only result in more exponential growth of government.

Taxing the Rich

I like this one even better:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/15/opinion/stop-coddling-the-super-rich.html?_r=1&hpw

Bruce

Perhaps the remedy would be a house of lords: a group of the super rich who would have sole charge of spending the money taken from them by Congress. It would seem the goal is to eliminate some of their advantages. I don’t mind that so much – I am familiar with Chesterton and Belloc – but I very much mind simply handing the money to be spent by the political machines. I would rather see Bill Gates spend money on education than the Federal Department of Education.

In the Athenian Republic the wealthy were encouraged to donate ships to the Navy (you could even command one if you gave enough money to outfit it and hire the crew), donate cavalry units to the Army, build public buildings — If you can show how to despoil the rich and see that the money taken from them does not simply end up as loot to strengthen the temptations to the covetousness of the looters, I am sure many will listen. But simply throwing more money into the maw of government does not seem a productive way to proceed. I’d rather see Buffett invest the money than simply hand it over to the SEIU.

Incidentally, do not take this as my acquiescence in the Belloc-Chesterton Catholic distributism. They have a case, and on purely political grounds the case for having some limits on the power and wealth of the super rich can be made strongly. But there is a strong economic case against it, and an even stronger one against encouraging covetousness. Taking the money from the rich has one set of consequences; what one does with it is even more critical. Simply voting to send an armed tax collector to grab someone else’s money to distribute it to the voters has been the ruin of many societies. Adams said there never was a democracy that didn’t commit suicide. Despoiling the idle rich, then the rich, then the productive, all to the benefit of the voters, is a common path to self destruction.

I can recommend to your attention the case against distributism, http://mises.org/daily/1062.

On economic policy

Jerry, My understanding is that our tax revenues as a fraction of GDP are relatively low at present, at least in terms of post-FDR days: http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/31/are-taxes-in-the-u-s-high-or-low/

I understand that this is in part due to the recession and the significant and expiring reduction in tax rates that were enacted as part of the 2009 stimulus, but it is not unreasonable to say that the low tax rates at present have quite a bit to do with the deficits the nation’s running. The President apparently offered to put some real entitlement cuts on the table during the debt ceiling negotiations, much to the fury of liberals: http://fdlaction.firedoglake.com/2011/07/19/obama-wants-to-cut-medicare-and-social-security-benefits/ but was rebuffed due to the Tea Party caucus’ unwillingness to countenance any tax revenue increases.

I’m with you on putting the bunny inspectors (and the TSA!) out of work, but that’s a very small part of the budget. Entitlements are where the real action is, and Obama apparently was serious enough about them to put some money on the table, as it were. It was apparently the Tea Party which decided the crisis was indeed worth wasting, which is a pity.

If Rick Perry wins office next year and the Republicans manage to hold onto the House while taking the Senate, they will have every opportunity to explain to the public just what they are going to cut. I expect the Democrats will be more than happy to follow the Tea Party caucus’ example and let the Republicans hang for it.

That certainly would not be adult leadership, but I haven’t seen much as I’d like from the Republicans presently in Congress either.

Ours is a two party system, it would be nice if our representatives acted like it.

Best, Jon Jonathan Abbey

Your view of what the President offered is not the one given me by some of the participants, but perhaps they were mistaken. No cuts have been offered; not actual cuts. What was offered was a slower growth rate. Real cuts, and elimination of programs, was not offered.

But in any event, to my thinking, increasing government revenue is itself the wrong course of action. Is there any indication that if they had more money to spend they would spend it wisely? That taking money from those who make more than $250,000 a year (which does not include me) would cause that money to be spent in more productive ways? That hiring another GS 9 would do us more good than leaving an inhabitant of Indian Hills the money to hire a housekeeper and another under-gardener, or take his wife on a trip to – well, I was going to say Acapulco, but given the unrest there I suppose they would choose somewhere else. Perhaps we ought to restrict the rich to vacations in the US so they’ll spend their money here?

Indeed, I would rather see more “frivolous” things made deductible, particularly if those frivolities took place in the US and involved US made products, than see government income rise. Encourage the rich to spend the money: make them spend it or else; I can see some sense in that. I do not think we are better off if we despoil Mr. Buffett to pay more cubicle workers and lower the age at which government workers can collect pensions.

As to the Bunny Inspectors, when I see a serious proposal to cut that program I will pay more attention to the “cuts”; but the fact is that a society that can’t even eliminate spending on the absurd will not eliminate much else.

Stop feeding the beast.

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Letter from England

Although the stock market is currently signalling its concern over the likelihood of a double-dip recession, the private sectors in America and the UK seem to be recovering from 2008. The massive unemployment is in the public sector, which is about half the economy in the UK. That pain has led to rioting in England, initially triggered by resentment about police tactics. <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Tottenham_riots>

What caused the riots and what should be done about them? A debate: UK police opinion: <http://tinyurl.com/3hlnlxo> <http://tinyurl.com/4x4obhh> <http://tinyurl.com/448yea4> US police opinion: <http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/aug/13/bill-bratton-advice-uk-police> Tory opinion: <http://tinyurl.com/3np2jar> <http://tinyurl.com/3upngok> Other opinion: <http://tinyurl.com/3lkedjj> <http://tinyurl.com/3ox7ntn> <http://tinyurl.com/438sqjl> <http://tinyurl.com/3hr69js> <http://tinyurl.com/3kxevkl> <http://tinyurl.com/4ypjvzb> <http://tinyurl.com/44anhg3>

A shortage of engineers in the UK <http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14521890>.

Problems with disability assessment in the UK: <http://tinyurl.com/3zmtuu9>

NHS cutbacks hit: <http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2011/aug/12/nhs-accident-emergency-waiting-times>

Competition for university places: <http://tinyurl.com/4xuk3h3> Student debt to double: <http://tinyurl.com/3ea6usz> <http://tinyurl.com/3eh4c4n>

You may enjoy this: <http://www.guardian.co.uk/film/2011/aug/13/monty-python-life-brian-bbc>

My take on English politics is similar to the driver’s comment in Ustinov’s Gran Prix of Gibraltar: "I think none of us has much of a chance". The Tories are a bunch of amateurs; the Lib-Dems have committed suicide; and Labour is committed to making things worse.

"We do not understand how a country,… can produce people who seem to be acting without thinking, let alone making serious efforts to investigate the consequences of their actions." (Mary Evans in the Times Higher Education)

Harry Erwin

And actually all is well in this best of all possible worlds where the regulations all work, and we have no real problems. It’s all illusion. It certainly seems so to those with tenure and pension.

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No Child Left Behind

NCLB musinbgs

Dear Dr. Pournelle:

The recent comments by Mike Schmidt concerning Soviet math education are identical to those found in China as recounted in the book “Knowing and Teaching Elementary Mathematics: Teachers’ Understanding of Fundamental Mathematics in China and the United States (Studies in Mathematical Thinking and Learning Series)” by Liping Ma.

I have enjoyed your many columns on education, NCLB, etc. and I have a few comments to add. Your readers may not be familiar with the test, its scoring and its application. I have experience with both Texas and New Mexico NCLB testing.

To begin, the tests are trivially easy. For example, the formulas for calculating areas, volumes, etc. is printed in the test booklet! No need to remember that the area of a circle is the pi * the radius squared. As another example, it is possible to pass (and in fact, to excel) on the Social Studies test by consistently answering the question in the most "politically-correct" manner.

If this was not bad enough, the "cut score" which determines the proficient/not-proficient breakpoint is determined by the state AFTER the test is graded. Thus, the state can arbitrarily set the value at anything it desires.

Lest you think the "cut-score" is set too high you should know that a few years ago in Texas the cut-scores were in the low- to mid- 50% range.

To make matters worse, the Spanish language test has "cut-scores" set independently of the English-language tests. In Texas, the cut-score for Spanish-language exams averages 5 to 10 percentage points less than their English counterpart. Supposedly for the same test. I suspect most parents would assume that the "passing" score on the NCLB exams is perhaps 70%. They would be wrong.

States can take advantage of this by setting their cut-scores very low and having most of their students then meet annual yearly progress (AYP) goals. Mississippi is notorious for this. If you compare Missisippi NCLB-scored proficiencies with the proficiency scores for the nationwide National Assessment for Educational Progress you find a massive discrepancy in proficiency. States that do not practice this cut-score legerdemain show comparable NCLB and NAEP proficiencies (Massachusetts, for example).

From the school’s perspective AYP is virtually unobtainable because of one little testing requirement. All subgroups in the school (containing at least 15 or so students) must meet AYP for the school to meet AYP. For most groups, this is not a problem. Asians, Whites, Hispanics, Blacks, Low-income are all potentially capable of making AYP. One group however will never make such progress and that is the developmentally disabled.

It is not uncommon to have a dozen or so mainstreamed developmentally disabled students in a school. I am not talking about high-performing autistic students or mildly mentally deficient. No, I am talking about sixth-grade students who require a constant caretaker companion and who read (if at all) at the first grade level. Many have been mainstreamed from institutional care. The dirty little secret of school principals is that to make AYP, you must make sure that your school has fewer than the minimum number of students in any AYP-problematic category. Principals routinely use their power in the district to transfer such students to other schools prior to testing.

I am familiar with perhaps several hundred schools; I know of none that achieved AYP on scores alone with a full demographic of developmentally disabled students.

It is possible to make AYP through various exemptions,loopholes, etc. without actually having your scores improve. This fact is never mentioned in the district press releases.

Here in the borderlands, an additional problem arises with illegal immigrant children. A not uncommon scene in my hometown is to see a car with Mexican license plates dropping off a student at a local elementary school. The car will often feature bumper stickers for the local Mexican political arty and a "My Child is an Honor Student at …" where the school is an American elementary school.

At one Texas border school, I was asked to estimate the number of immigrant students. Using telephone numbers provided by the students, I found that 40% were invalid. Now some of these numbers might have been legitimately unavailable but I estimated that roughly 1/3 of their student population was cross-border. Remember, the Supreme Court has ruled that schools cannot enquire of the immigration status of their students.

Such cross-border populations wreak havoc with NCLB testing. Above a certain grade, all NCLB tests are given in English only. A large number of English language limited students will destroy any chance of meeting AYP.

At the classroom level, the teacher is caught between the rock of meeting NCLB standards and the hard place of inadequate teaching methods.

The current pedagogical methods in elementary school, in the vernacular, suck!

The math curriculum is seriously deficient and fails in almost all ways imaginable (see http://www.kathematicallycorrect.com) for a damning critique of current math curricula. Most parents assume that math is math and their children are being taught the same,things they learned — the multiplication table, the rules of arithmetic, etc. As you can see from the web critique nothing could be further from the truth.

Language and literature fares no better. Whole language instruction does not teach phonics, encourages guessing at words, down not teach spelling, do not roots and parts of words, etc.

If the methods were not bad enough (and they are truly atrocious), teachers are reminded that they will be judged and graded on the "fidelity to the method" (exact quote. To me, the word fidelity implies a cultish rather than a pedagogical imperative.

Experienced teachers get around these restrictions in the manner of Jack Black in School of Rock. They are,able to reposition the classroom and students to bamboozle the principal when she visits. Not surprisingly, their students routinely do better on the NCLB exams.

Less experienced teachers slavishly teach the poor methods and are surprised when their students fail to meet the meager NCLB cut-scores.

Students are further short changed by the NCLB emphasis. My wife is a music teacher (30+ years experience K – college level) and she occasionally has her students work on a writing assignment. Perhaps a report on a performance they have seen, or a thank you letter to a visiting music group.

Invariably, she is asked two questions. How many sentences? and How many words is a sentence?

The students have been so brainwashed that they view composition as solely filling out the minimum for the exam booklet.,They seem genuinely surprised that a paragraph is designed to hold one topic and can vary from a single word to a multiple-page Joycean exposition. Likewise, sentences.

Finally, the scoring and criteria for AYP can lead to perverse outcomes. Let’s imagine two teachers, Mrs. Bad Teacher and Ms. Good Teacher. Both teach the same grade and both have 30 students in their classes. Let’s further assume that this year the cut-score is 54% and the AYP goal for the school is 70% proficient. For these teachers that means to meet AYP goals they need to have 21 students (70% of 30) achieve a test score of 55.

Mrs. Bad Teacher’s results

9 students scored a zero

21 students scored a 55%

MEETS AYP

Ms. Good Teacher results

10 students scored a 53%

20 students scored a 100%

DOES NOT MEET AYP

Any evaluation tool that can lead to such perverse outcomes is seriously deficient.

One consequence of this scoring dilemma is that teachers and schools rationally focus only on the muddled middle. Students with low scores cannot likely be improved enough to pass the cut-score point. Students above the cut-score gain nothing for the school by improving their scores (in the example above a 54% and a 100% score are equally "proficient").

Thus, teachers devote all of their effort in an attempt to raise scores from the mid-40s to the mid-50s. Needless to say, this lowered expectations approach is not training many future scientists or engineers!

Terry A. Ward

I do not believe that we can devise a national test that makes sense. In a sense we already have them for those entering universities; for the rest, I do not think anything can be done. I have no idea what is the best education system: I can say that allowing local control allows real diversities. Some will be abysmal, but some might be excellent; I do not think that our system before federalization was everywhere worse than it is now, nor that the worst now were more horrid than the worst then or vice versa. The search for a national system with the consequent loss of local control does not seem to me a way out of the problem.

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Late at night while you’re sleeping

There’s a drill sergeant creeping

all around…

<.>

The Kaibiles, the ruthless U.S.-trained Guatemalan state militia infamous for their role in killing civilians during Guatemala’s civil war, are being recruited in large numbers to violent Mexican drug gangs. Mexico’s Zetas drug cartel is paying large sums to a multitude of Kaibiles forces to pass on the training they received from the United States military.

</>

http://news.antiwar.com/2011/08/15/us-trained-guatemalan-forces-tied-with-drug-gangs/

Men at War cadence:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vM22zUmithg

A classic (Blood on the Risers):  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VWgsdexkv18&feature=related

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Competent Empire creates auxiliaries and puppet kings, and keeps control of them with the Legions. The United States has never been very good at that game.

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In a Green Tree View 688 20110815

View 688 Monday, August 15, 2011

I wonder if anyone in Washington actually takes anything seriously other than winning office and retaining power? At the Iowa debates the big trick question was, if a Deficit Dance bill had a tax increase in it, but had ten times as much in cuts, would you reject it? All the candidates raised their hands. They would reject it. And of course today the President of the United States had to say something about that in insulting tones:

“I know it’s not election season yet, but I just have to mention the debate,” where Republicans said they would not increase taxes under virtually any circumstance, Obama said at a town hall. “Think about that. That’s just not common sense.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/campaigns/obama-kicks-off-midwest-bus-tour-with-harsh-words-on-the-economy/2011/08/15/gIQAZecOHJ_story.html

The nation is drowning in debt, unemployment continues high, and the president buys $3 million worth of busses to take a political tour in which he doesn’t say what he’s going to do, but has plenty of time to say it’s not common sense to try to balance the budget with sending cuts rather than tax increases. Does anyone realize that we’re in trouble? Real trouble? Is anyone looking at the cost of the regulatory nightmares business people face? Is anyone looking at the costs of the environmental regulations vs. their effectiveness? Does anyone care that we have to borrow the money to keep the budget increasing exponentially at above 5%, that this will go on forever, and no one in the Deficit Dance seems to ask for real cuts in spending as opposed to possible reductions in increases?

I’ve said it before: if you continue to borrow money to spend on Bunny Inspectors, you won’t cut much else either. The mind set is that that government spending must increase exponentially, there can be no cuts even in the most ridiculous programs, that can be no examination of whether the programs are doing enough to justify borrowing money to fund them, and “common sense” says that we must raise taxes and increase revenues so that we can continue to increase the deficit.

Of course the Republican candidates rejected the trick question; and no one seems to be asking President Obama for specifics. If you promise ten times the cuts as revenue increases, what will you cut? If you can cut those, why not cut them now, and argue for the revenue increase after the cuts are made? So far every time there has been a deal with budget cuts in return for more taxes, the result has been more taxes and more spending, but no cuts. Why would it be different now?

It wasn’t possible in a “debate” to ask any such questions. The President does not find it in his interest to do so, because he does not want to waste a crisis.

But is anyone in Washington asking those questions?

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I have a ton of mail regarding the barbarians in England. There are plenty of bizarre events in the United States. Civilizations fall when there is no one to defend them. The values of our civilization are no longer defended in our schools or our universities, and those who accept those values (and are pretty well the ones who pay the taxes) are expected to pay for all this. The liberal view of the world is that things can only go on improving; there is no need to defend a civilization’s values.

And of course all children ought to have a world class university prep education so they can be exposed to more deconstruction of the society.

Possony used to say that one sign of a coming collapse of a civilization is bizarre crimes and activities. Another is a leadership that no longer understands the necessity for common values. We have deconstructed the common values for a long time.

Commentary on the London/UK riots

I think this is probably about the best thing I’ve read on the subject. Of course it helps that the writer works at what could be called ‘ground zero’ for these riots with youths who probably were involved in the riots.

http://conservativehome.blogs.com/platform/2011/08/simon-marcus-listen-to-the-children.html

Francis Turner

From that essay:

When I first saw what went on in the streets around the Academy I couldn’t help but think of the line from Luke 23:26: “ For if men do these things when the forest is green, what will happen when it is dry”

We are a strange lot, the human race. We learn in funny ways. Once you break a taboo it is gone, once you break a boundary it is gone, if you get away with something and you enjoy it, you do it again. When kids attack teachers, (and it happens thousands of times a year) being sent to the cooling off room is pretty much a reward, a fixed term exclusion often makes no odds either. If a social worker tells a teenage mum the word ‘no’ emotionally damages a child, a message goes out. If an adult admonishes a gang of children for littering and gets a police caution a message goes out. If a father is reported to the police for smacking a child a message goes out. If an adult is arrested for grabbing a child who is stealing, or assaulting another child, a message goes out. If knife criminals receive community sentences, a message goes out. If people tell you about your rights as a child, and never about your responsibilities, a message goes out. If teenage girls are given flats for having babies a message goes out. If the police arrest you fifty times and nothing happens a message goes out.

How did it come to this? It is all about the power of ideas. The left wing sales pitch of grievance, victim, blame and excuse has done immense damage to society, as has the rights culture and the sense of entitlement many young people now have. If we look there is clear chain of causality that goes through the decades as other poisonous ideas took hold and turned society on its head: The family is outmoded, children don’t need fathers, they should be treated the same as adults, they don’t need discipline or boundaries, authority is oppression, everything is society’s fault, right and wrong are relative concepts, as is morality, ethics are contextual and no one view is worth more than another. Well-meaning this may be, but no society in the history of the world has taught its children this and survived. Edmund Burke must be turning in his grave.

We have sown the wind. Now we reap.

And I have just heard that most of the bizarre crimes are the fault of the Tea Party. Never waste a crisis.

Luke 23:26

And as they led him away, they laid hold upon one Simon, a Cyre’nian, coming out of the country, and on him they laid the cross, that he might bear it after Jesus.
27  And there followed him a great company of people, and of women, which also bewailed and lamented him.
28  But Jesus turning unto them said, Daughters of Jerusalem, weep not for me, but weep for yourselves, and for your children.
29  For, behold, the days are coming, in the which they shall say, Blessed are the barren, and the wombs that never bare, and the paps which never gave suck.
30  Then shall they begin to say to the mountains, Fall on us; and to the hills, Cover us.
31  For if they do these things in a green tree, what shall be done in the dry?

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Programs, Riots, and Lists Mail 687 20110814

Mail 687 Sunday, August 14, 2011

 

Imperial Stars: The Stars at War, Republic and Empire, The Crash of Empire (Anthologies by Jerry Pournelle)

 

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Comments on my Program for Republicans

Business Exemptions

"Double the exemption numbers for small businesses: that is, whatever regulations you are exempt from by dint of having 10 or fewer employees, you will now be exempt if you have 20 or fewer; similarly for larger numbers. The regulations will still apply, but the exemption numbers are doubled."

I’d add one more thing; any business will be grandfathered in to these limits going forward. In other words, the Feds can’t (easily) drop the exemption numbers back down in a year or so. This would encourage people to create new businesses now.

Fred Nixon

A Program for Republicans

Jerry,

I really like the program, and would add one other thing, a sunset law.

In Texas, every agency is subject to a sunset, a date on which the agency will cease to exist unless re-authorized by the legislature and governor.

http://www.sunset.state.tx.us/faq.htm

I would sunset every agency and all their regulations, so that every so often, the agencies and regulations had to be reviewed and re-authorized. I’d like to sunset pretty much the entire CFR and all federal (and state) laws. As part of the sunset procedure, we should be reviewing every single regulation for its effectiveness, costs, etc.

Thanks,

Anthony

Anthony Holder

Agreed

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On the Riots in Britain

Here’s an interesting interview. It might even contain a little hope.

<http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/aug/14/david-lammy-tottenham-mark-duggan>

Harry Erwin

So there was a history in the region. It still does not explain the rise of the brutish activities motivated almost entirely by the desire for a new TV or sneakers. As happened in Los Angeles a few years ago, and in Philadelphia recently, as well as England. There is always a criminal element, but in general even the criminals are criminals, not rebels. But when the whole notion of standards is rejected it’s a different matter. Free Societies fall when there are not enough citizens ready to defend them. Tyrannies can hold on much longer that a free society of disillusioned citizens. Battista’s Cuba fell because no one was willing to defend it; Castro appeared to be a savior, and convinced enough followers to throw out Battista, but then there was no one to rescue the country from Castro.

And yet. As you say, there is perhaps a little hope in there. Perhaps.

==

Danegeld and Copybook Wisdom

Dear Dr. Pournelle:

I saw your recent column in which you compare British hooligans to Danes. I write to remind you that every human culture must, every generation, absorb an invasion by barbarians – a.k.a. the young. Civilizing them is an expensive process, but cutting corners there has consequences. You can call the cost of acculturation Danegeld if you wish; and yes, you’ll never get rid of the young; but remember that you too were once a little Dane. The alternative is to drop the torch, and lose the relay race.

You made a classic error of moral philosophy; confusing ‘is’ with ‘ought’. In particular, to foresee is not to condone. To say that austerity causes civil disorder does not praise civil disorder; it condemns austerity! But I admit that it’s easier to blame the messenger.

And as for the consequences of austerity, consider these copybook sayings: "Penny-wise, pound-foolish." and "What goes around, comes around."

Sincerely,

Nathaniel Hellerstein

I am not sure how to answer that. I can assert that I am well aware that each generation must learn to be civilized, and indeed I would have thought that was the essence of conservatism, and the very essence of Kipling’s poem. We have made war on the American culture for most of my life. When I was young we were surrounded by the symbols of the nation and its culture. They included mangers and menorahs, deliberate respect to the clergy, overt patriotic rituals in classrooms, pledges of allegiance, and a great deal more. I have been warning people that when we throw all that out we sow the wind; and I am not astonished that having done it we reap the whirlwind.

We can now try to bribe people into obedience with more stuff. Open the stash. Hand out the stuff. That won’t last long. The usual remedy to this kind of disorder is far more violent. In Mexico things have gone to the point where something has to give: everyone now wishes for almost anything that will bring back a land in which ten murders in Acapulco in a weekend is a very rare event.

There are many ways to reap the whirlwind. I suppose it will be interesting to see which version Britain gets, and which we get. We have worked hard at ending the Old Republic. We have not given so much thought to what replaces it. For some reason, nothing like the old patriotism seems to have won the hearts of the next generation.

But we have not yet destroyed the Legions. Not yet.

==

SF cell shutdown: Safety issue, or hint of Orwell?

Jerry;

Niven never imagined that his flash mobs would be so criminal and violent.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9P3FGQG0&show_article=1

It is an interesting civil rights question. Is it permissible for government to jam communications that coordinate civil unrest? How about monitoring the communications feed to identify which messages were used to coordinate unrest and who received them and are therefore suspected of participating?

Mubarak took too long to pull the plug on cell phones.

Jim Crawford

When you sow the wind you reap the whirlwind. I think you underestimate what people will embrace when the choice is disorder. Note what happened to Germany under Weimar when they sought to destroy the old culture. National Socialists were perfectly happy to help destroy the old. But as Chesterton said, when a man ceases to believe in God, he does not cease to believe – he will now believe in anything. When a people lose faith in their culture, they do not lose faith entirely – they will seize on something else. I can easily see a time when the “freedom” of free speech and easy communication is hated, not defended.

Mubarak did not really control the Mamelukes. He wanted to install his son as Pharaoh. That was not acceptable to the colonels, many of whom now wish they had acted differently. We have not yet seen what will replace him. Or Qaddaffi. Or the Taliban. Or Saddam.

And lest we find too much hope, note Mark Steyn on the riots:

Lessons for us from London in flames:

http://www.ocregister.com/opinion/london-311857-want-book.html

“If you were born into such a household, you’ve been comprehensively "stimulated" into the dead-eyed zombies staggering about the streets this past week: pathetic inarticulate subhumans unable even to grunt the minimal monosyllables to BBC interviewers desperate to appease their pathologies. C’mon, we’re not asking much: just a word or two about how it’s all the fault of government "cuts" like the leftie columnists argue. And yet even that is beyond these baying beasts. The great-grandparents of these brutes stood alone against a Fascist Europe in that dark year after the fall of France in 1940. Their grandparents were raised in one of the most peaceful and crime-free nations on the planet. Were those Englishmen of the mid-20th century to be magically transplanted to London today, they’d assume they were in some fantastical remote galaxy. If Charlton Heston was horrified to discover the Planet of the Apes was his own, Britons are beginning to realize that the remote desert island of "Lord Of The Flies" is, in fact, located just off the coast of Europe in the northeast Atlantic. Within two generations of the Blitz and the Battle of Britain, a significant proportion of the once-free British people entrusted themselves to social rewiring by liberal compassionate Big Government and thereby rendered themselves paralytic and unemployable save for nonspeaking parts in "Rise of The Planet Of The Apes." And even that would likely be too much like hard work.”

"In Britain, everything is policed except crime.

“Her Majesty’s cowed and craven politically correct constabulary stand around with their riot shields and Robocop gear as young rioters lob concrete through store windows to steal the electronic toys which provide their only non-narcotic or alcoholic amusement. . . . Yet a police force all but entirely useless when it comes to preventing crime or maintaining public order has time to police everything else. When Sam Brown observed en passant to a mounted policeman on Cornmarket Street in Oxford, "Do you know your horse is gay?", he was surrounded within minutes by six officers and a fleet of patrol cars, handcuffed, tossed in the slammer overnight, and fined 80 pounds. Mr. Brown’s "homophobic comments," explained a spokesmoron for Thames Valley Police, were "not only offensive to the policeman and his horse, but any members of the general public in the area." The zealous crackdown on Sam Brown’s hippohomophobia has not been replicated in the present disturbances. Anyone who has so much as glanced at British policing policy over the past two decades would be hard pressed to argue which party on the streets of London, the thugs or the cops, is more irredeemably stupid. . . . This is the logical dead end of the Nanny State.”

"For Americans, the quickest way to understand modern Britain is to look at what LBJ’s Great Society did to the black family and imagine it applied to the general population. . . . The evil of such a system is not the waste of money but the waste of people. Big Government means small citizens . . ."

Just thought I’d brighten your day.

Ed

We have sown the wind.

"It’s J. G. Ballard’s World, We Just Live in It"

"After the events of this week, who can deny that J. G. Ballard is enjoying a wry chuckle from the grave? "

http://www.fantasticalandrewfox.com/2011/08/12/j-g-ballards-world-we-just-live-in-it/

Billenium is the Ballard story that has stuck with me for over 40 years, with all its flaws. Anyway, is Fox right?

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Imperial Stars

Review of Imperial Stars 2

Dr Pournelle

I reviewed Imperial Stars 2: Republic and Empire on my blog today. http://thelogoftheantares.blogspot.com/2011/08/sunday-ebook-review-imperial-stars-2.html

It is one of the best sf short-story collections I’ve ever read.

Unhappily, it is very, very hard to find the Imperial Stars collections on Baen’s Books. They are not listed under your catalog name or by title. The easiest way to find IS2 is to go to my blog and chase the link I give. The alternative is to go to Baen’s Books webscription sitemap http://www.webscription.net/sitemap.aspx and scroll down to your name; the Imperial Stars titles are listed there.

Indeed, chasing the link attached to your name gives http://www.webscription.net/s-83-jerry-pournelle.aspx . This link yields titles not found in your Baen’s author catalog http://baen.com/author_catalog.asp?author=jpournelle .

One thing’s for sure, anyone who finds Imperial Stars on Baen’s site is a committed fan. Getting to these collections is like performing a tonsillectomy through the rectum.

Live long and prosper

h lynn keith

Well, I can hope there are readers who will try. Volumes I and III were pretty good too. I was quite proud of Imperial Stars.

EBook versions of all three Imperial Stars volumes can be found at http://www.webscription.net/p-923-imperial-stars-1-the-stars-at-war.aspx. Volumes Two and Three are also available from that page. Alas, they are not available as Kindle instant downloads. I wish they were. But they do work on the Kindle format, and it’s not all that hard to get them there. Clearly it’s simpler to be able to go to the Kindle Store, particularly if you are on an airplane and only have the Kindle.

The three Imperial Stars volumes have some of the best essays I ever wrote and all were edited by Jim Baen himself; the results were pretty good, if I do say so.

==

Niven & Pournelle books in the NPR Top 100 SF/F poll. (priority one)

http://www.npr.org/2011/08/11/139085843/your-picks-top-100-science-fiction-fantasy-books

_Ringworld_, _The Mote in God’s Eye_, _Lucifer’s Hammer_.

Roland Dobbins

I have several messages on this. Two out of the top one hundred isn’t all that bad…

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More ice, so naturally ‘unrelated’ to so-called ‘global warming’.

<http://blog.seattlepi.com/robertbrown/2011/08/12/be-prepared-for-more-arctic-sea-ice-in-the-next-decade/>

Roland Dobbins

Surprise.

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Constitutional rights, of course, are actually privileges, and sovereign immunity is what is actually inviolate.

………….Karl

Sent to you by Karl via Google Reader:

Denver Media Outlets Fail to Cover Multitude of Juicy Stories Behind Recent Rabbit Farm Raid <http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/BigGovernment/~3/szszKytUGnY/>

via Big Government <http://biggovernment.com> by Bob McCarty on 8/12/11

Since breaking news <http://bobmccarty.com/2011/08/10/anonymous-call-to-new-animal-abuse-hotline-leads-to-raid-on-colorado-womans-rabbit-farm/> about a July 21 raid on a farm 12 miles north of Denver that resulted in local law enforcement officials seizing 193 rabbits from a nationally-recognized rabbit expert, I’ve learned more disturbing details about the case. Perhaps least shocking was my discovery that members of the Denver-area news media appear to have swallowed everything thrown at them by the Jefferson County (Colo.) Sheriff’s Office <http://www.co.jefferson.co.us/sheriff/index.htm> .

<http://bobmccarty.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Six_Bell_Farms_Raid_1.jpg>

Before pressing on, I’ll recap the lowlights of what transpired after someone placed an anonymous call — the first ever, according to officials with the Sheriff’s Office — to a new statewide Crime Stoppers hotline that had been set up in June, specifically to take reports from citizens of suspected animal abuse:

1. Without a warrant, officials with the Sheriff’s Office descended upon Debe Bell’s Six Bells Farm Candle Factory and Rabbitry <http://sixbellsfarm.com> at approximately 10:30 a.m., accompanied by three veterinarians and several volunteers from the local branch of the House Rabbit Society <http://www.rabbit.org/> — a nationwide group comprised of people who, according to Bell, think rabbits need to be raised like small children.

2. During the next three hours, according to Bell, the throng of law enforcement officers, veterinarians and volunteers opened the doors of her 600-square-foot barn, turned off the water to the swamp cooler (an air conditioning system for the barn) and caused the temperature in the barn to rise to 84 degrees.

3. Some six hours after they arrived, Sheriff’s Office officials produced a warrant which spokesperson Mark Techmeyer said was obtained after they convinced a judge that they had seen “what they believed to be some issues” at Six Bells Farm.

4. During the next four hours, according to Bell, the same throng loaded her rabbits in cardboard boxes, put them in a horse trailer and hauled them off to the county fairgrounds. There, the rabbits were placed in dog and cat crates with solid-bottom floors, meaning, “The minute they urinate, they’re standing in their own urine.”

5. For several days after their arrival at the fairgrounds, Bell said, the crated rabbits were kept in a non-air conditioned concrete-stalls horse barn until officials with the Foothills Animal Shelter — a group tasked by the Sheriff’s Office with caring for the animals — decided that wasn’t working out and obtained a swamp cooler.

<http://bobmccarty.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Six_Bell_Farms_Raid_2.jpg>

As of today, neither the Denver Post <http://www.denverpost.com/> nor CBS Denver <http://CBSDenver.com> has seen fit to report on the raid more than one time despite the fact that it contains a plethora of “low-hanging fruit” story angles any investigative reporter worth his salt would die for. For instance:

A. Bell is known statewide and nationally as a top rabbit expert, and she’s relied upon by families involved in at the county, state and national level as the go-to person for children and families in need of help with and knowledge of rabbits. Surely, it would be newsworthy if a woman like her all of the sudden “went bad” like the star of the AMC television series, “Breaking Bad.” <http://www.amctv.com/shows/breaking-bad>

B. According to Berthoud, Colo., attorney Elizabeth Kearney, there was only one dead rabbit in her client’s barn, and all of the other dead rabbits were in her freezer. Why? Because Bell provides rabbit meat to the local zoo and to several raptor rescue groups. That has to be newsworthy, right?

C. Twelve of the seized rabbits belong to 4-H <http://www.national4-hheadquarters.gov/> kids who were planning to show them at upcoming fairs — two at the Jefferson County Fair <http://www.co.jefferson.co.us/fair/> that started Thursday and the remaining 10 at the Colorado State Fair <http://www.coloradostatefair.com/> which runs from Aug. 26 to Sept. 5 in Pueblo. I guarantee Barbara Walters could get those kids to cry and send the ratings through the roof!

D. On the Constitutional rights front, one has to wonder why no one in the Denver news media has explored the subjects of whether it’s lawful for law enforcement agents to (1) step foot on someone’s property without a warrant and (2) seize someone’s private property (livestock) based solely upon an anonymous phone call to a hotline that pays up to $2,000 for tips. Lawyers, please form a line.

E. With animal rights activism forever on the increase, one has to wonder why no one in the Denver news media has explored the possibility that animal rights activists — who would love to see people like Bell put out of business — made the anonymous hotline call. Perhaps the media outlets are afraid of blowback from the animal rights wackos?

F. The shortage of participants at this year’s Small Animals Show <http://www.coloradostatefair.com/index.php?page=small_animal> at the Colorado State Fair is so severe that officials extended the deadline for entry and, in order to prevent animal rights activists from collecting the names of rabbit owners, officials are planning to not display the names of rabbit owners alongside their rabbits. Why? Because rabbit raisers in Colorado are scared they might suffer the same fate as Six Bells Farm and are not going to show their animals at the Colorado State Fair, Bell said. That has to be news, doesn’t it?

G. Finally, one has to wonder why no one in the Denver news media has reported on Jefferson County District Attorney Scott Storey <http://www.co.jefferson.co.us/da/index.htm> ’s role in this case. One year ago last month, Storey charged an 82-year-old man with attempted first-degree murder <http://www.kwgn.com/news/kdvr-elderly-man-shoots-thieves-txt,0,2612691.story> after that man fired two shots at thieves who he said had tried to run him over with their truck while stealing his flatbed trailer. In short, as reported by Denver’s CW2 channel <http://www.kwgn.com/news/kdvr-elderly-man-shoots-thieves-txt,0,2612691.story> , the district attorney seems to have a propensity toward overcharging people. Is he too powerful to expose?

Yes, instead of pursuing this story with so many rich story angles available, two of Colorado’s largest media outlets took passes.

Instead of investigating the news, Shaun Boyd of CBS Denver <http://denver.cbslocal.com/2011/07/22/200-rabbits-seized-in-animal-abuse-investigation/> and Liz Navratil of the Denver Post <http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_18598053> merely passed along to their audiences what they were fed by Sheriff’s Office spokespersons Jacki Kelley and Mark Techmeyer.

CLOSING THOUGHT: Since publishing my first report <http://bobmccarty.com/2011/08/10/anonymous-call-to-new-animal-abuse-hotline-leads-to-raid-on-colorado-womans-rabbit-farm/> , the story has appeared at Andrew Breitbart’s BigGovernment.com <http://biggovernment.com/bmccarty/2011/08/11/anonymous-call-to-new-animal-abuse-hotline-leads-to-raid-on-colorado-womans-rabbit-farm/> and garnered quite a bit of attention throughout cyberspace. I’ve even seen suggestions that all loyal, freedom-loving Americans should begin raising rabbits. That in mind, shall we form a “B Party”?

More to come.

<http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/BigGovernment/~4/szszKytUGnY>

 

 

 

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