Chaos Manor – Jerry Pournelle – Page 279 – the original blog of Jerry Pournelle's Chaos Manor

State of the Union day after

By Jerry Pournelle | Jan 25, 2012 - 1:42 pm | Updated: January 25, 2012 - 1:42 pm | View

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View 710 Wednesday, January 25, 2012

The State of the Union was painful. I had intended to watch and make notes, but I didn’t. I did watch the whole thing, to my – I was going to say astonishment, but I can’t say I was really surprised. On reflection, what else could President Obama do, other than announce that he would not be a candidate for President as Lyndon Johnson did? Like Jimmy Carter he has few choices. He can’t run on his record. All during the speech in which he told of what he was going to do, I kept wondering if he would ever address the question of what he has done. He pretty well didn’t. Much of his speech was nearly identical to last year’s state of the union. It’s all going to be great when you finally get it.

He does claim credit for the demise of bin Laden. Considering the time it took him to make the decision to send in the forces, it wasn’t as heroic an achievement as it might have been, and one can question the kill order – would it not have been better to take him prisoner and interrogate him? But that’s another debate for another time. He can have credit for bin Laden.

He called for a rebuilding of America’s infrastructure. To the extent that this is a federal matter, surely he was given enough in bailout and stimulus funds to have done that? I note that there was no mention of shovel-ready jobs this time. He told us that he had saved General Motors, how GM was now the world’s most successful car company. I suspect there are others who will debate that assessment. His salvation of General Motors involved confiscation of the equity of bond holders and turning that over to his political allies, particularly the unions whose past achievements had driven the company to bankruptcy and beyond in the first place.

He called for more programs, to the point at which I was ready to yell “What did you do with the last $Trillion we gave you?”

He can’t run on his record.

Ms. Pelosi is now saying that she has the real dirt on Newt Gingrich which she will release at a time and place of her own choosing, and it will be enough to finish Gingrich. It would be a mistake to think that this has not been coordinated with the White House.

Obama can’t run on his record. He has to come up with other reasons to convince the American people to return him to office. It won’t be because of his accomplishments.

Jerry,

Lately I’ve grown so tired of politics, [I know, you tell me despair is a sin] but after reading a couple paragraphs on cnbc’s decidedly biased website about the state of the Union campaign speech by President Obama I have 2 questions to ask you:

What do you think of the statement that dividend income should be treated differently then ‘earned’ income–haven’t taxes already been paid on that income already and should the risk taken in investing in the growth of the economy be encouraged & rewarded?

Also it seems like you don’t send out subscription notices for renewing here or has my time perception been skewed by my years in the desert?

Take care

Please Publish the 4th Tran book!

Alan

I should send out renewal notices, but I don’t like spamming people. I do think everyone who has recently subscribed or renewed.

What Obama called for in the State of the Union was an increase in capital gains and dividend taxes. Capital gains and dividend income comes from previously taxed income put at risk investment. If you want less of something, fine or tax people for doing it. If you want fewer people investing, raise taxes on investment income.

Warren Buffet’s income is from capital gains and dividends, all of which comes from money which has already been taxed at least once. His secretary’s income will be wages, and since she is not likely to be underpaid, it is very likely to be a great deal higher than the capital gains tax rate. Raising the capital gains rate on money owned free and clear will cause the owners of that money to seek other places to invest. There are no surprises there.

Mitt Romney inherited essentially nothing, so every cent he has comes from money he has earned and paid taxes on. Confiscating everything he has would not greatly reduce the national debt. Fining people for being successful and using the confiscated money to bail out the unsuccessful would not seem to be a very good investment strategy.

What is fair play?

It may be unfair that Romney, who is younger than I am, is so much richer than I am; is this fair? Is it fair that he has more money than an Occupy Wall Street camper? Even if the Occupy camper is a trust fund heir who doesn’t have to work? Should success be rewarded or punished?

Should Penny earn as much money as Sheldon?

There are joint LAPD and US military training exercises going on in Los Angeles. I have mail from people worried about this as a black helicopter operation, possibly an upcoming military coup, and it is no coincidence that it took place during a State of the Union address.

Back in the old Civil Defense days, this sort of thing happened all the time, as it should, so that civil defense, national guard, and regular military could practice communication including language (“Cover me” means an entirely different thing to a rifle squad than to a civilian police officer). If I were in charge we would have Civil Defense again, FEMA would be abolished, and there would be such exercises at regular intervals – including involving the Boy Scouts on Emergency Preparedness, as we used to do when I was involved in Scouting.

The whole thing ends tomorrow night.

Of course there are also those thinking these ops are just another Hollywood set location in action: if you think that, look again. Technology has greatly advanced and there are really good light amplifying cameras, but you can’t do production movies in the dark – and indeed, even if you didn’t need the gaffers and best boys, union rules would insist that they be there anyway. Even Hollywood isn’t exempt from either physics or the Iron Law.

The Somali gangsters – for some reason called pirates – who had kidnapped an American and a Danish aid worker (they had volunteered to go help clear out minefields in civilian areas) and held them for ransom have good reason to regret doing that. Actually, the gangsters – I refuse to call them pirates since none of this has to do with sea or river transportation – are mostly dead. It was a grievous lesson for them; we can hope they profited from it. Whether they do or not, it is probable that other Somali gangsters and pirates will draw the right conclusions from this.

President Obama will take credit for this. He should; but it also removes one campaign issue from the election. There is no one running for the office of President who won’t approve of this sort of thing.

If you have not read this, it is worth your time. http://www.michaelyon-online.com/images/pdf/mccaffrey-nbc-iran-nukes-and-oil-january-122012.pdf

Solar Storm

By Jerry Pournelle | Jan 24, 2012 - 5:55 pm | Updated: January 24, 2012 - 5:55 pm | View

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View 710 Tuesday, January 24, 2012

State of the Union tonight. I am working on other stuff; this will likely be a political speech since our current President seems more eager to campaign than to govern. Perhaps he will explain his decision on the oil pipeline?

This may be of interest:

Solar Storm

www.solarham.com <http://www.solarham.com/>

Pursuant to yesterday’s (0400 Z) long-duration M8.7 flare, the solar energetic particle (SEP) event continues; the tail of protons over 100 MEV has decayed back to near-normal levels but total protons over 10 MeV is still 30 dB over the level at the start of the flare.

The CME scheduled to hit today is still expected to arrive about 0900 ET (1400 Z); there is not yet any precursor activity in the ACES data. G2 – G3 geomagnetic storming is expected.

There is a video of the CME on the site.

Jim

We are well overdue for a big solar event, but we have no way to predict this; only that they seem to occur at about one century intervals, and our last really big one was in 1859

I ran across this looking for something else, and remembered that Andrew Marshall and I are near contemporaries. He was at RAND Corporation when I was at Aerospace, and I think we may have met back in those times. He’s still at it, and has become a national treasure.

http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Andrew_Marshall

Time for the State of the Union.

Congressional Immunity and the Constitution; the Egregious Frum; space development; and other mail.

By Jerry Pournelle | Jan 24, 2012 - 1:12 am | Updated: January 24, 2012 - 1:12 am | Mail

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Mail 710 Monday January 22, 2012

A few recent mail; I will do a big catchup when I have time to make more comments. It’s late now. I’ve been catching up today.

Article I, Section 6.

‘They shall in all Cases, except Treason, Felony and Breach of the Peace, be privileged from Arrest during their Attendance at the Session of their respective Houses, and in going to and returning from the same; and for any Speech or Debate in either House, they shall not be questioned in any other Place.’

<http://www.csmonitor.com/layout/set/print/content/view/print/454944>

—

Roland Dobbins

This of course is very much relevant to the TSA’s treatment of Senator Rand Paul. But this Administration does not seem to take Constitutional issues seriously. Or perhaps the President hasn’t read the document lately.

Sen Paul and TSA

Hi Jerry,

By this hour you’ve probably been sent this story 75 times already. I am looking forward to your treatment of the item.

–Mike

http://overheadbin.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/01/23/10216573-tsa-critic-sen-rand-paul-has-run-in-with-tsa

By NBC News and msnbc.com news services

Updated at 4:25 p.m. ET: Senator Rand Paul, R-Ky., clashed with the Transportation Security Administration at a Nashville airport on Monday morning and says that was was "detained" by the government agency.

NBC News reported that he set off a full-body scanning machine while going through airport security. Paul reportedly raised his right pant leg, which may have set off the scanner. Paul, according to aides, said it was “clearly a glitch” and asked to proceed through the machine a second time. The TSA demanded a full-body pat-down, which Paul refused.

"I was told I couldn’t leave, that kind of sounds like you are being detained," Paul told NBC News. "I was put into a small cubicle and told not to leave."

NBC News’ Tom Costello reports that, according to sources at the TSA, Paul was not detained, but was escorted by police out of the checkpoint.

In a statement to NBC News, TSA spokesman Greg Soule said, “When an irregularity is found during the TSA screening process, it must be resolved prior to allowing a passenger to proceed to the secure area of the airport. Passengers who refuse to complete the screening process cannot be granted access to the secure area in order to ensure the safety of others traveling.”

Paul was eventually permitted through airport security, according to Soule. “The passenger has since rebooked on another flight and was rescreened without incident,” he said in a statement at about noon on Monday.

Paul, who has previously called for the TSA to be abolished, told NBC News that passengers should not be subjected to pat-downs.

"I really think no American should have to go through all of this," he said. "I think if the screener goes off and you don’t want to have a pat down search, you ought to be able to go back through the screener." Paul says he was sent back through the screener when he went to board his re-booked flight

I really haven’t time to give this the commentary it deserves because it is so stunning. To begin with of course is the plain language of the Constitution regarding Senators and Members of Congress travelling to or from the national Capital. I can understand Senator Paul’s reluctance to invoke his Constitutional immunity from this sort of treatment but he should have done so. TSA ought to know that there are at least some Americans immune to their arrogant security theater.

Of course Senator Paul’s father wants to abolish the TSA in its entirety.

Most Americans are intimidated by TSA and well they should be; you must kiss their boots and salute their hats if you want to travel.

I wonder if a fiction scene in which the US Army overpowers a local TSA despoty on Constitutional grounds would be good reading? It would certainly be fun to write.

Ah, Frum…

"Oh dear. We must unify against Gingrich!"

http://www.cnn.com/2012/01/23/opinion/frum-gingrich-enthusiasm/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

Methinks the Egregious Frum has decided to go back to being a liberal. Romney is a RINO, and likely to have Wall Street’s hand up his backside like a sock puppet. But he’s inoffensive. Gingrich is bright, as Clinton was, but has about half of Clinton’s personal charm and shows signs of being about as amoral, which is less palatable to Mainstream Republicans. Santorum will get obliterated by the media for his willingness to cuddle up to social conservative platforms and positions. (They’re already warming up the American Sharia narrative for him). With the exception of Paul, everyone regards the Tea Party clique as a basket of snakes. Useful to handle to prove your faith, but not something to clutch to your bosom.

If our mandate here is to get the strongest, brightest leadership we can manage, the choices are Gingrich and Paul. If our mandate is to get the closest thing we can get to a President not entangled by Wall Street, our best bet is Paul.

Isn’t it fascinating that the two best choices cause Frum to froth, wroth with dismay and concern about the dismantling of the party of George W. Bush?

I had not noticed that the egregious Frum had ever ceased to be liberal, but then he did read me out of the Conservative movement long ago. Ah well, I have endured.

Incredible News

This is belated and welcome: a defense against a big rock or ice ball hitting our sphere.

http://www.infowars.com/international-plan-protecting-earth-from-comets-asteroids-means-billions-for-contractors/

Of course, the article discusses the billions that will go to contractors. It’s sad that people seem to lack vision and an undestanding of time and their place in history. I wonder how many of my intellectual opponents must believe the same about me? Whatever the case, this is something we need to be thinking about.

I was considering how much we know about where we are and what is going on and we haven’t done much to change our behavior, social structures, and goals. This is a step in the right direction. This planet is vulnerable to a strike from meteors. This is a step toward preserving the planet; this represents the only "Green Economy" initiative that I can get behind so far. Protect the planet and the lives on it with an earth defense system.

Next step: Get space ships that will allow us to colonize planets and moons, mine asteroids, moon, planets, etc., and continue exploring space. I suggest we develop first contact protocols and prepare ourselves to meet other sentient beings; astronomers in 2012 believe we have more planets than stars in the galaxy. I believe we need to get our act together. We do not need to export barbarism to the stars.

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

I point out, once again, there is no money spent in space; it’s all spent on Earth, most on skilled labor. Development of space resources will take more than one generation, but it remains true that 90% of the resources available to mankind in this solar system are not on Earth. For more on that see A Step Farther Out. At least one of the candidates understands this.

Another reason to get rid of Obama

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203806504577178830739157386.html?mod=WSJ_Tech_LEFTTopNews

Notice who complained:

" But U.S. authorities and entertainment executives say in court documents and interviews that cyberlockers are at the vanguard of online piracy."

You don’t hear too many complaints from software developers anymore. The Apple app stores and their Google counterparts have made it easy to develop and make money on software. The low selling prices make it unlikely that people will steal it. In the book business, eBooks are enabling the same scenario to play out with authors. What’s left but good old holly wood and Nashville? Hopefully, it won’t take too much more time for them to go bye bye. In their current form, good riddance.

Phil

The entire subject needs a long essay. I am working on that, but I am not sure there is much urgency. The market seems to be working.

Iraq Reverts

hmmm

<.>

Iraq is falling back into authoritarianism and headed towards becoming a police state, http://topics.breitbart.com/police+state/ despite US claims that it has helped establish democracy in the country,Human Rights Watch http://topics.breitbart.com/Human+Rights+Watch/ said on Sunday.

</>

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.f4b3121d53c9061ef3bd59387255abe5.51&show_article=1

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

No surprises. I do not know what the US is doing to protect our only genuine ally left in Iraq, namely Kurdistan Iraq, where we are popular and there is rule of law. I am not sure that the President understands this.

It was always the case the Iraq would fragment; it was artificially created to give the Hashemites a Kingdom, and the monarchy was the only thing holding it together. Without the authority of the hereditary Protector of Mecca as ruler there was no reason for loyalty except along tribal and confession lines. But then I said as much before we went in, but they were not listening to people like me in those days.

“What if we forget about the current theories about the non-existence of life on Venus, let’s boldly suggest that the objects’ morphological features would allow us to say that they are living.”

<http://deathby1000papercuts.com/2012/01/venus-ufo-photo-1982-russian-probe-photos-proof-of-aliens-on-venus/>

The object in the photo looks like part of the Venera re-entry shroud or a fragment of one of its landing pads, to me.

—

Roland Dobbins

The Zen of Firefly and Serenity …

Updated (and corrected) the post with a few new pictures,

for those who like such things. 🙂

> http://paulinhouston.blogspot.com/2012/01/firefly-and-serenity.html

>

> The Zen of Firefly and Serenity …

> "… I aim to misbehave."

>

>–

>Paul Gordon

I do miss that show.

Scientific American: The weaponry of 1912

http://www.scientificamerican.com/slideshow.cfm?id=warfare-1912-weapons-technology

Its interesting how many things have changed and how many really haven’t.

John Harlow, President BravePoint

Cheap, plentiful energy

Hello Jerry,

"Cheap, plentiful energy is the key to freedom and prosperity."

Jerry Pournelle, often

That is certainly a fact, and obvious, and you are not the only one

to notice it.

Alan Caruba has noticed and, with that in mind, provides some

commentary on the energy policies of the US Government and what they

are designed to achieve.:

http://factsnotfantasy.blogspot.com/2012/01/destroying-america-by-denying-access-to.html

You may or may not agree with his last sentence; I do.

Bob Ludwick

I can only repeat that cheap, plentiful energy is the key to prosperity; and as I said in A Step Farther Out, there are no pollution problems that cannot be overcome with suitable applications of energy. I know of one candidate who understands this because I met him when he called me to discuss A Step Farther Out.

China’s Future

The future of China looks most interesting for the communists:

<.>

The Chinese government is taking notice of recent economic and social successes in the inland city of Chongqing. Anchored by economic initiatives that promote domestic consumption, as opposed to the traditional export-oriented focus of China’s coastal region, the so-called Chongqing model has been seen as responsible for the city’s prosperity as growth slows in the rest of the country, and it appears to be under consideration for widespread implementation. However, a number of issues inherent in the model, including strong central control and massive government investment, will need to be addressed before it can become a viable, nationwide plan.

</>

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/china-viability-chongqing-model

I like that last line. The issues of central control and government investment tend to kill domestic consumption as these cannot keep pace.

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

Mussolini was probably the most economically successful socialist, and many of his measures were models for New Deal policies. Fascist Italy was a combination of command economy, free enterprise, and lots of motivational manipulation. It did not export well, as Argentina proved, but then Peron wasn’t as smart as Mussolini.

This is good news:

<.>

The scientists who altered a deadly flu <http://health.nytimes.com/health/guides/disease/the-flu/overview.html?inline=nyt-classifier> virus to make it more contagious have agreed to suspend their research for 60 days to give other international experts time to discuss the work and determine how it can proceed without putting the world at risk of a potentially catastrophic pandemic.

</>

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/21/science/scientists-to-pause-research-on-deadly-strain-of-bird-flu.html?_r=1&hp

Probably, nobody heard of this and when it happened the media would offer some bs excuse like you always hear people repeating. So, if a pandemic comes, remember this.

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

And as computers get more powerful? Perhaps it is time to reread Budrys’s Some Will Not Die.

fascinating video on numbers

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-1957179570191443503

—

Recent work from Michael Z. Williamson

ROGUE, Sep 2011 from Baen Books

CURIOSITY: ALIEN INVASION, Discovery Channel, August 2011

Obama’s TV Ad on Energy — IT’S GOING TO BE A LOOOONG YEAR!!!!

http://news.investors.com/Article/598518/201201201917/obama-energy-claims-celebrate-recession.htm

****************

John D. Trudel, Consultant Emeritus, Inventor, Engineer, Author, retired Adjunct Professor (U. of Oregon), and Novelist.

Fred Thompson; Prizes

By Jerry Pournelle | Jan 24, 2012 - 12:23 am | Updated: January 24, 2012 - 12:42 am | View

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View 710 Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Midnight. Most of the Republican debate was not interesting.

However, earlier, Fred Thompson, the man I very much supported as the candidate for 2008, has just endorsed Newt Gingrich on the grounds that Gingrich can best articulate conservative principles and solutions to Americas problems. Former Senator Thompson has kept up with politics and remains well connected; his endorsement should be significant among thoughtful people.

And I have this mail about the one bit in the debate:

Newt and prizes for space

He said it !!!!! I hoped he would. Go Newt Go! Please stop to preen!

Phil

I don’t know about preening, but it is true that I am the one who convinced Newt that prizes were the proper way to encourage space development. That was true in the 1980’s and it remains true now. Prizes cost next to nothing unless and until the goal is achieved. They are a splendid way to encourage research and development at reasonable costs. But then I’ve said all that before, and for years now.