Recovering; and some interesting places to visit.

View 715 Monday, February 27, 2012

I got the final version of Legend of Black Ship Island this morning, and I’ve been working on it all day, which pretty well used up my time. It’s a good story, but I’ve been so bunged up with this bronchitis that I haven’t had a chance to do a real final edit. It’s publishable now, but I can improve it, mostly by inserting a few details here and there. Avalon is a fascinating place, and some of the interactions with the ecology can be complicated.

Tomorrow will be an informative election.

 

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I have found a bunch of open tabs, mostly prompted by mail, which lead to places you may find interesting. I have to clear some of them out because Firefox gets giddy if there are too many open tabs, so I’m just going to dump them. None of them take long to open, and while some of you will find different ones interesting, they were all interesting enough that I kept them open with the idea of writing something about them. I probably won’t get to.

Sing, O Muse, the Wrath of Michelle: Spengler said this before the election. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page/JC04Aa01.html

Spengler speculates on what Richelieu would have made of our wars in the Middle East. http://pjmedia.com/spengler/2012/02/27/thank-heaven-for-little-ghouls/?singlepage=true

An interesting compilation. One day I may add to it. I need to do an essay on contraception and abortion but it is a delicate subject and requires time. http://io9.com/5887139/what-does-science-fiction-tell-us-about-the-future-of-reproductive-rights?tag=io9-backgrounder

I mentioned this one before, but it is the best summary of the skeptical position on AGW that I know of, and I recommend it. http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02148/RSL-HouseOfCommons_2148505a.pdf

Another climate change exposition: we’re freezing. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2093264/Forget-global-warming–Cycle-25-need-worry-NASA-scientists-right-Thames-freezing-again.html

I have pointed to this one before on why we are getting rid of the Warthog. http://www.rense.com/general38/a10.htm I have mail warning me about the rense.com site, but I know nothing about it, and the source is irrelevant: the argument is well made.

I won’t close this tab. It needs discussion. But it’s worth looking at if the subject interests you. http://hylemorphist.wordpress.com/2011/02/15/zero-point-energygroundvacuum-state-vs-real-being-vs-logical-being-vs-nothing/

Ditto for this http://www.economist.com/blogs/babbage/2012/02/ofer-lahav-dark-energy?fsrc=nlw|newe|2-22-2012|new_on_the_economist

And all of that ought to be enough. I’ll be back in form in a few days. I am recovering. And I’v a mountain of work to do.

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A rational critique of man made global warming

View 715 Sunday, February 26, 2012

It has been a long day, and it does seem I am recovering from this upper respiratory infection that seems to be going around. We managed church this morning, and Roberta sang in the choir, and after we went with friends to breakfast, and while it was all tiring I managed it; We even had a walk later. With Sable it’s pretty hard not to take a walk. She considers that an entitlement. Then we discovered that we were out of dog food and I had to go out again. Sable wondered where I was going, and she had an idea where it might be, so I took her along. It’s her favorite place. When we get to the Petco parking area she goes mad to get out of the car. Literally her favorite place. Inside she picked out an enormous bone and talked me into buying it for her. When I was a kid you’d get those for a quarter for a soup bone, but in modern times it’s not likely that any store around here ever sees such bones. This was huge, and will last her for a while, and it’s good for her teeth.

And then it was time for the Oscars. No real surprises on the awards, and none I disagreed with. Clooney and Streep certainly deserved theirs, and of the nominees I have seen I’d have voted for The Artist. But it all exhausted me, and I didn’t get these notes written up.

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I strongly recommend http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02148/RSL-HouseOfCommons_2148505a.pdf as about the best rational discussion of CO2 and climate I have seen. It’s reasonably technical but not overly so; and it asks questions. I particularly invite those who believe in AGW to read it and send me your comments.

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I actually know that Clooney didn’t win the best actor award, and I thought he dshould have. IN fact I thought that so thoroughly that I seem to have made myself think he had. That’s an odd trick for memory to play on me.

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Proscription, habeas corpus, Warthogs and career paths ,etc.

Mail 714 Saturday, February 25, 2012

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Even the liberal media is concerned –

I’m surprised at a couple of the articles that have been published in the local alternative weekly paper. The paper leans heavily to the left, but at least one of their columnists is taking a hard look at the current administration’s record. Here are two well-researched, well-written articles that are critical of President Obama and the current administration. The first scares the heck out of me. The second only surprises me because the right hasn’t picked up on it.

Letters at 3AM: It Came From the White House Obama and a majority of Democratic legislators support the NDAA, allowing the arrest of U.S. citizens without a warrant http://www.austinchronicle.com/columns/2012-02-10/letters-at-3am-it-came-from-the-white-house/

"Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., noticed that to subject American citizens to arrest without warrant and to detain us without trial violates the Fourth, Fifth, and Sixth Amendments of the Constitution. Feinstein proposed to specifically exempt American citizens from the NDAA’s arrest policy.

Her clarification of the NDAA passed the Senate by a vote of 98 to 1. That’s as bipartisan as it gets, even in good times. In these times, passage of Feinstein’s clarification was a miracle of agreement.

Yet in the NDAA’s final version, as signed by President Obama, American citizens are not exempt. How did that happen?"

Letters at 3AM: Obama, Nukes, and Us

President Barack Obama fudges the truth of his nuclear policies http://www.austinchronicle.com/columns/2011-04-08/letters-at-3am-obama-nukes-and-usmichael-ventura/

–Gary P.

We also have proscription lists – lists of people including American citizens who shall be killed on sight if there is no way to apprehend them, or perhaps even if there is — bin Laden was apparently given no chance to surrender. Now of course soldiers in the field are allowed and encouraged to kill hostiles on sight, but that’s not quite the same thing as sending snipers in gillie suits or drones with Hellfire missiles to seek them out.

Courts still have the writ of habeas corpus, which demands that anyone holding someone against their will be required to produce that person and tell the court why it is legal to detain him. (If you don’t really believe that in the English language the male pronoun includes the female, feel free to change that to “detain him or her” or better, substitute Damon Knight’s ‘yeye’.) The question becomes whether it is a proper and sufficient return to the writ to state that yeye is being held pursuant to the NDAA act, yeye having been placed on the list of enemies of the people or whatever designation the NDAA gives them.

I haven’t done an extensive search on this. Snopes http://www.snopes.com/politics/military/ndaa.asp gives the statement that the military can arrest anyone without trial or warrant a “mixed” rating meaning partially true, but isn’t clear as to what parts are not true. Snopes seems to be relying on a signing statement by President Obama stating that it isn’t his intention to hold people indefinitely without trial. He did not say that they couldn’t be arrested and held; and he did not specify how long they might be held. Nor did he say anything about response to a writ of habeas corpus. Of course for a writ to be issued a judge has to know that someone is being held, and who holds that person.

Even the Daily Kos isn’t sure what the act authorizes.

I expect we’ll find out soon enough. http://www.austinchronicle.com/columns/2012-02-10/letters-at-3am-it-came-from-the-white-house/

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The white house’s e-petitions

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

I thought you might be interested in this technical innovation the White House has put together:

https://wwws.whitehouse.gov/petitions/%21/petition/rescind-hhs-dept-mandate-requiring-catholic-employers-provide-contraceptivesabortifacients-their/lBxr7SdP

You’ve heard of e-petitions, right? The white house actually put e-petition software on their own web site. If enough people sign the petition, they promise a response of some kind. Essentially it’s the same thing as a letter to the White House, updated to the digital age.

Respectfully,

Brian P.

I wonder what kind of petitions they get or allow to be displayed?

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Boffins build blood-swimming medical microbot,

Jerry

Fantastic Voyage — a blood-swimming medical microbot:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/02/25/autonomous_implantable_robot/print.html

I just added ‘microbot’ to my spellcheck dictionary.

Ed

Now that is fascinating. We should hear more about this soon.

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Subject: Follow up to Himalayan glaciers have lost no ice in the past 10 years, new study reveal

Some previous estimates of ice loss <http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2012/02/09/himalayan-glaciers-have-lost-no-ice-in-past-10-years-new-study-reveals/?intcmp=features##> in the high Asia mountains had predicted up to 50 billion tons of melting ice annually, said Wahr, who is also a fellow at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences. Instead, results from GRACE pin the estimated ice loss from those peaks — including ranges like the Himalayas and the nearby Pamir and Tien Shan — at only about 4 billion tons of ice annually.

Bristol University glaciologist Jonathan Bamber, who was not part of the research team, told the Guardian that such a level of melting was practically insignificant.

"The very unexpected result was the negligible mass loss from high mountain Asia, which is not significantly different from zero," he told the Guardian.

…and…

“According to GRACE data published in the study, total sea level <http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2012/02/09/himalayan-glaciers-have-lost-no-ice-in-past-10-years-new-study-reveals/?intcmp=features##> rise from all land-based ice on Earth including Greenland <http://www.foxnews.com/topics/greenland.htm#r_src=ramp> and Antarctica was roughly 1.5 millimeters per year annually or about one-half inch total, from 2003 to 2010, Wahr said.”

It occurs to me with the above statement from the article that using the sample data below, over a one hundred year time span the total rise in sea level would amount to a little over 7 inches. This would hardly cause the catastrophic scenario the AGW alarmists are predicting in which coastal communities would be several feet under water.

The usual back of the envelope assumption is that the seas have been rising about a foot a century for a long time. Since the Ice Age some of the land formerly covered by glaciers has been rising. Obviously the presence of sea ice in the Arctic will have little effect on sea levels, although water density is affected by temperature of course.

The size of local glaciers in high and cold places is mostly affected by the amount of precipitation. In dry years there isn’t any snow and the sun still shines. In wet years with lots of snow glaciers grow. The snows of Kilimanjaro have been shrinking but there has been drought in that area.

http://tohatchacrow.blogspot.com/2011/03/kilimanjaro-snow-levels-increase-after.html

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Scientists Reply on Global Warming

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203646004577213244084429540.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

The interest generated by our Wall Street Journal op-ed of Jan. 27, "No Need to Panic about Global Warming," is gratifying but so extensive that we will limit our response to the letter to the editor the Journal published on Feb. 1, 2012 by Kevin Trenberth and 37 other signatories, and to the Feb. 6 letter by Robert Byer, President of the American Physical Society. (We, of course, thank the writers of supportive letters.)

We agree with Mr. Trenberth et al. that expertise is important in medical care, as it is in any matter of importance to humans or our environment. Consider then that by eliminating fossil fuels, the recipient of medical care (all of us) is being asked to submit to what amounts to an economic heart transplant. According to most patient bills of rights, the patient has a strong say in the treatment decision. Natural questions from the patient are whether a heart transplant is really needed, and how successful the diagnostic team has been in the past.

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Why The Generals Hate The A-10

Nice summary: http://www.rense.com/general38/a10.htm

It’s ugly. It’s lumbering and it’s old. But the A-10 Warthog almost certainly remains the best performing airplane in the Air Force’s fleet. The 30-year-old attack plane is safe, efficient, durable and cheap. GI’s call it the friend of the grunt, because it flies low, showers lethal covering fire and greatly reduces the risk of friendly fire deaths and civilian casualties.

While the high-tech fighters and attack helicopters faltered in desert winds, smoke-clotted skies and in icy temperatures, the A-10 proved a workhorse in Gulf War I, Kosovo, Afghanistan and the latest war on Iraq.

Naturally, the Air Force brass now wants to junk it.

And now the Air Force plan is to replace the inexpensive, durable, effective A-10 with the F-35????

It amazes me that the Army hasn’t taken back control of their own destiny and regained control of the close air support role. The Air Force doesn’t want to do it, they just want the $ associated with the mission.

John Harlow

The close support and interdiction missions should belong to the Army. The problem is that aviation is not a good career path for Army officers. It’s one reason why warrant officers are employed as helicopter pilots. The Luftwaffe solved this somewhat by allowing them to have ground units, but that doesn’t work very well either. Being a hot helicopter pilot doesn’t make one a good field grade officer. The Air Force has always had the myth that good pilots can learn command, and they have career paths for boffins, but it has always been a problem.

Some of the essence of the difficulty is shown – not deliberately – in the movie Command Decision with Clark Gable (there’s more in the actual novel it was based on).

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Earmarks

Dr. Pournelle,

I must agree with your earmark comments, and add that the ability for a weapons program to find at least one congressional champion is a key darwinian challenge for any system. Without a tame congresscritter, the contractors I’ve been involved with can’t build weapons systems that we _do_ know how to build. Grooming, care, and feeding of such champions becomes more important (measured in time and effort expended), in many cases, than the development and implementation of the technical aspect of the system. It is also easy to cross the somewhat arbitrary line between legitimate sales/support and illegal influence. Just my observations, mind you, but they seem in line with your own and the Iron Law.

Glad you are recuperating. Our own recoveries from a similar ailment have also been slow, but eventually successful (this is one of the first good day’s I’ve had in a month).

Looking forward to the new book…and combing the web for advance sales.

-d

Congress must control spending. That means it can’t fund everything the executive branch – including the generals – wants. On the other hand sometimes the executive branch, and especially the generals, are just plain wrong in rejecting some projects. The earmark system is flawed and can lead to waste, but it’s better than having no Congressional control at all.

Legend of Black Ship Island will be up sometime next week I think.

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Extraordinary Korean War Vet,

Jerry

A friend sent me the link below. He commented. “That one did not go in the direction I thought it would. Almost stopped it at the beginning of Fanfare for the Common Man, as I thought it would be a lengthy slide show, but held on. Glad I did. Not a widely known gent, but obviously a deep soul. Thanks.”

<http://www.greatamericans.com/video/Portraits-of-Valor-Tibor-Rubin>

The vid is 12 minutes. It is about Tibor Rubin, a Hungarian concentration camp survivor who came to the US and ended up in the Pusan pocket. He was left behind as his company retreated to impede the NK’s. He held out for a few days, came back to US lines, and after a number of patrols was captured. Since he was an experienced prison camp survivor, he helped others. At about 9 minutes he tells about how he fed a man “goat shit,” telling him they were pills but also telling his patient “You have to help yourself.” Finally in 2005 he got his MOH. Nice short piece. Worth watching – and I usually don’t watch vids.

Ed

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Subject: We probably didn’t need an added incentive to get into space.

There could probably be volumes printed about this … Robert Heinlein would probably not be shocked.

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2012/02/24/playboy-and-virgin-galactic-fantasize-cosmic-mens-space-club/?intcmp=features

Tracy

Bunny inspectors?

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SUBJ: Movie recommendation

Dear Jerry,

Just watched an excellent, nay, out-STAND-ing movie that I think you would thoroughly enjoy. The movie’s title is "Longitude" and is about the British Royal Navy’s search to find a way to reliably calculate longitude in the 1700’s.

The story is fascinating. Its an historical drama. The movie contains military history, technical invention and innovation, politics, faith, betrayal and triumph all in an English historical setting. It also deals closely with government prizes, which you have been discussing lately. The movie contains both 18th-century and 20th-century components. It is well-written, well-made and well-told.

For an unabashed Anglophile movies and history nut (like me), it doesn’t get any better.

Netflix has it, although I found it at my local library too.

Cordially,

John

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Instruments made of ice.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17162066

The fleeting nature of these instruments makes the all the more beguiling.

Andrew

Andrew McCann

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Oath of Fealty –

Hi Jerry,

There’s also an iBook edition, which I’d picked up as my ’emergency read’ for plane trips. During my last delay, I too was recaptured by the story – it’s one of my favorites, and definitely holds up well.

Cheers,

Doug=

Thanks for the kind words. I am really quite fond of Oath of Fealty. It was the second novel Niven and I began, but we put it aside to do Inferno and Lucifer’s Hammer.

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A Feast for the Eyes: Favorite Pictures of EPOD for 2011

Jerry,

Enjoy!

<http://epod.usra.edu/blog/vote-2011.html>

Regards, Charles Adams, Bellevue, NE

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FTL Neutrinos Back? Medicare Payments rising? Privacy invaded?

View 714 Saturday, February 25, 2012

The FTL neutrinos may not be gone after all. The evidence is still murky.

This from one of our PhD physicist readers:

Subj: FTL Neutrino "Clarification"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-17139635

On the one hand, the team said there is a problem in the "oscillator" that provides a ticking clock to the experiment in the intervals between the synchronisations of GPS equipment.

This is used to provide start and stop times for the measurement as well as precise distance information.

That problem would increase the measured time of the neutrinos’ flight, in turn reducing the surprising faster-than-light effect.

But the team also said they found a problem in the optical fibre connection between the GPS signal and the experiment’s main clock – quite simply, a cable not quite fully plugged in.

In contrast, the team said that effect would increase the neutrinos’ apparent speed.

_____

In other words, the much ballyhooed "loose plug" from the earlier reports, when corrected, makes the discrepancy even worse, rather than better. It’s a separate problem, the oscillator, that reduces he discrepancy.

_____

Meanwhile, I have finally looked at a few of the numbers. Given that classic tachyons of higher energies travel at speeds closer to the speed of light, and given that the mean energy of these muon neutrinos was something over 20 GeV, the measured speed is actually MUCH TOO FAST for these measured neutrinos to be classic tachyons if we assume the normally assumed rest energy in the vicinity of a few eV. Amusingly, the speed works out about right if the mass of the muon neutrino is sqrt(-1)*mass of the muon. But there is no apparent way to reconcile that with the obvious argument that it would suggest an electron neutrino mass of i*me.

And the fact remains as I noted in my presentation in November: EVERY quoted measurement of the neutrino mass is consistent with faster than light neutrinos. Even if this measurement falls, as noted above, it does not prove that neutrinos are not classic tachyons.

I will agree that it’s a mess and not getting cleaner until they get some good data with their hardware errors corrected.

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Then we have:

The per person Medicare insurance premium will increase from the present monthly fee of $96.40, rising to: $104.20 in 2012; $120.20 in 2013; And $247.00 in 2014. These are provisions incorporated in the Obamacare legislation, purposely delayed so as not to ‘confuse’ the 2012 re-election campaigns. Send this to all seniors that you know, so they will know who’s throwing them under the bus.

I have no idea whether this is correct or not. It is from a partisan source. I haven’t read the Obama Health Care Act, (nor do I know anyone including some Members of Congress who has; it very long and complex) so I can’t say. Most of those who passed Obamacare didn’t know much about it – then Speaker Pelosi famously told the Congress they had to pass the act to see what was in it – but it is well known that it had lengthy time delays for many of its provisions. I am realizably informed that it has major changes in Medicare both A and B. I don’t want to get into a discussion of facts and interpretations, but do we have any experts who actually know in the readership?

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I understand there is a new Internet Bill in Congress that has got past the Judiciasy Committee. It will require ISP’s to keep records of you internet visits, and make them available to law enforcement and also to discovery fishing lawyers in civil cases. Such as child custody or divorce – hah, he went to a porn site! – and any other civil suits. So all someone has to do is bring a lawsuit and collect everything your ISP knows about you, which is a lot.

I’ll have a lot more about this next week. I just heard about this on Leo Laporte’s radio show. More details later. Feel free to tell me what you know about this.

From the Show Notes, Saturday Feb 25 2012 of Leo Laporte’s radio show:

The EFF says Congressman Lamar Smith, you know, the SOPA guy, has introduced a new bill HR1981 which hides behind protecting children from internet pornography. But others are calling it the Internet Surveillance Act. Leo says it’s a grave invasion of privacy. It requires ISPs to keep track of all your search, electronics communications, email and IP addresses, credit card data for at least 12 months, and indemnifies ISPs from being sued for it. Leo also says it’ll give the MPAA and RIAA the ability to track you down easier.

On the air he said that the act would allow civil lawsuit lawyers access to all those records as part of discovery search. If so it’s not merely an invasion of privacy, it’s the end of any pretense of electronic privacy. Everything you have bought, every web site you went to intentionally or not, every place you have travelled…

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Ands yet another warning: I got this Thursday but overlooked it.

GPS vulnerability

Jerry

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2012/02/23/gps-emerging-threat/

It’s worth reading. Excerpt:

 

For example, in 2010, UK researchers aimed a low-level GPS jammer at test ships in the English channel. The results were stunning: Ships that veered off course without the crew’s knowledge. False information passed to other ships about their positions, increasing the likelihood of a collision. The communications systems stopped working, meaning the crew couldn’t contact the Coast Guard. And the emergency service system — used to guide rescuers — completely failed.

Then, there’s the incident with the U.S. drone lost over Iran. Humphreys believes that by using simple jamming technology, Iranian authorities confused the ultra-sophisticated RQ-170 spy drone to the point that it went into landing mode. The drone’s Achilles heel? It had a civilian GPS system — not a military-grade encrypted model. It didn’t take much to blind it and force it down.

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2012/02/23/gps-emerging-threat/#ixzz1nRJKFW69

Needless to say, If I can confuse ships at sea I can confuse airliners overhead. I’m not sure it’s as simple as this makes it seem,  but we know how to build directional antenna and oscillators of nearly any frequency you’d like, and…

 

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