Mail 722 Tuesday, May 01, 2012

Paul Ryan talk to Georgetown, have you seen it"

This is the link

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/297054/paul-ryans-whittington-lecture-daniel-foster

I especially note

"We need a better approach.

To me, this approach should be based on the twin virtues of solidarity and subsidiarity – virtues that, when taken together, revitalize civil society instead of displacing it."

The whole talk is very good and on point.

R/Spike

Paul Ryan’s Whittington Lecture at Georgetown

This guy takes subsidiarity seriously.

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/297054/paul-ryans-whittington-lecture-daniel-foster

Video:

http://www.c-span.org/Events/Rep-Paul-Ryan-Defends-Budget-at-Georgetown-University/10737430203/

>>Government is one word for things we do together. But it is not the only word.

We are a nation that prides itself on looking out for one another – and government has an important role to play in that. But relying on distant government bureaucracies to lead this effort just hasn’t worked.

Instead, our budget builds on the historic welfare reforms of the 1990s – reforms proven to work. We aim to empower state and local governments, communities, and individuals – those closest to the problem. And we aim to promote opportunity and upward mobility by strengthening job training programs, to help those who have fallen on hard times.<<

Rod Montgomery==monty@starfief.com

Transparency and subsidiarity are both necessary for the survival of self-government. We seem dedicated to eliminating both. Or perhaps I am merely in a bad mood.

Alive?

You said "Why we did not take Bin Laden alive for interrogation has not been explained, and probably never will be."

Of course we know the answer, even if it is never officially stated.

Nothing we could do to interrogate him would pass muster for avoiding the faux war on terror standard of torture, including just holding him in solitary. We have no place to keep him which passes the legal and practical tests forced on us after the last presidential election, and even though we’ve not shut down Gitmo, just imagine the stink of putting UBL there. No, there was no advantage and plenty of problems for us if we took him alive, but no downside if he died.

I’ve been saying for a while I’m just not capable of understanding why it is worse to execute them than it is to take them alive and do to them what we do to every SEAL, Green Beret or pilot in our service. Yet doing what you are directed to do, with written opinions from the DoJ that it is legal won’t protect you from legal attacks later on. I wonder what effect that will have on national security?

You know it, I know it, and the Legions know it. That is not a good situation.

Apple & Corporate Taxes

I’ve been reading news articles about USA corporations "not paying taxes" since the early 80’s. Every single time when you get to the end of the piece you discover that the reality is almost the exact opposite of what the headline and the rest of the article implies. In this latest issue most of the posters aren’t even bothering to put the truth at the end. Now they entire piece is a mistatement.

In the USA corporations are required to pay income tax deposits throughout the year based upon the prior year’s taxes (unless they expect income to be less in the current year but in that case if you underpay you can be subject to penalties). Any additional taxes over the prior year are paid on March 15 with the tax return or the extension letter. In Apples case they are apparently comparing the current interim payments (based upon last year’s income) with the current year’s income which is much higher. A truly apples to oranges comparison. I think The Register had a piece explaining reality.

Apple apparently does take advantage of legal loopholes to lower their taxes but nowhere near the amount that certain sources are lying about.

In the 80’s and 90’s I used to see claims that all these large corporations "owed no taxes", implying they didn’t pay any corporate income tax despite large income. It was usually that the corporation paid their taxes in full during the year and didn’t owe anything on their tax return. Only in the media can paying your taxes in full equal not paying any taxes.

Gene Horr

No one has a moral obligation to overpay taxes; one may have moral obligations to pay back, to give to charities, to support public enterprises; but taxes generally do not do that, and when governments get money they spend more than they get, nor do they cut back when the income comes down. It is sinful to let the government have a dime more than you must give it, or so say some who have analyzed what government does with the money.

Subj: Lawyerly advocacy vs Science

An explication, based on a recent alarmist publication, of the distinction Dr. Pournelle has pointed out several times:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/29/from-schmidt-2005-to-miller-2012-the-not-needed-excuse-for-omitted-variable-fraud/

>>The anti-CO2 alarmists are behaving like lawyers in an adversarial

>>legal proceeding, hiding what hurts their own case while overstating

>>what can be fashioned in support. In the courts an adversarial system

>>is able to elicit a measure of truth only because there is a judge to

>>maintain rules of evidence and a hopefully unbiased jury examining the

>>facts. These conditions do not obtain in science. The anti-CO2

>>alarmists are both the peer-review jury and the judge/editors,

>>devolving into a pre-scientific ethic where acceptance is determined

>>by power, not reason and evidence.<<

Note also the reference and link to the 2005 exchange between Dr.

Pournelle and the alarmist Dr. Gavin Schmidt — search within the article for "Pournelle".

I did not re-read the Pournelle–Schmidt discussion carefully, only skimmed it. My impression is that the slight-of-hand concealment of the possibility that there might be solar effects *other* than Total Solar Irradiance comes through more clearly in the above-linked piece than in the original P–S discussion: in my skimming, I noticed only a single reference, at the very end of the archived web page containing the discussion (more of a postscript, actually), to the possibility of

magnetic-field->cosmic-ray->clouds effects.

Continuing in the above-linked piece:

>>Schmidt looks askance at GCR-cloud as “new physics,” but it isn’t new in any fundamental sense. The cloud micro-physics that Svensmark, Kirkby and others are looking at is presumed to follow established particle physics models. It is a new application of current physics. What Schmidt is really suggesting with his jaundiced eye is that we should be reluctant to extrapolate our current understanding of physical principles to illuminate the biggest scientific controversy of the day.

At the same time, he and Miller and the rest of the alarmists have introduced something that really is new and problematic. They are using model runs to test their hypotheses. They are using theory to test theory, with no empirical test needed. <<

After which the piece quotes at some length from the Shindell-Schmidt paper "a highly abridged description of the hypothetical steps that their model works through."

>>It is fine for people to be working on these models and trying to make progress with them, but to use them to make claims about what is actually happening in the world is insane, and using them as an excuse for ignoring actual empirical evidence is worse than insane.

This really is a new kind of science, and not one that stands up to scrutiny. We are being asked to turn our world upside down on the strength of the most elaborate speculations in the history of mankind, yet Schmidt thinks it is cloud microphysics—traditional science!—that should be eschewed. All to justify the destruction of the modern world, now well underway.<<

Rod Montgomery==monty@starfief.com

Cheating In School

Jerry,

Apparently cheating in school has become a protected right, or is fast becoming one: http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/opinion-la/la-ol-school-cheat-20120427,0,1656872.story

Kevin L. Keegan

Given that the purpose of universities has changed enormously, so that most of them no longer have a goal of education but are run by Iron Law, the old notion of honor changes a lot. Getting grades in universities is now vital to one’s career because of credentialism, but the faculty is run by an entirely different moral. This is not a stable system.

Wind farms can cause climate change.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/9234715/Wind-farms-can-cause-climate-change-finds-new-study.html

“The spatial pattern of the warming resembles the geographic distribution of wind turbines and the year-to-year land surface temperature over wind farms shows a persistent upward trend from 2003 to 2011, consistent with the increasing number of operational wind turbines with time,” said Prof Zhou.

Charles Brumbelow

Think of that! The old slow turning windmills that pumped water were an entirely different proposition; but now the high speed turbines generate electricity and kill birds, and the electricity pumps water. And the Iron Law prevails.

WOW, you will not believe the new Corning Glass!!! AMAZING!!

Jerry,

WOW, you will not believe the new Corning Glass!!! AMAZING!!

Enjoy the knowledge.

click on the BLUE GLASS below.

If you’re wondering why HP and others are dropping desktops etc., look at this. It’s called GLASS.

THE FUTURE IS ALMOST HERE WITH CORNING GLASS, AND THE IDEAS ARE MIND BOGGLING!

(Ignore the camera ad at the beginning!)

CLICK HERE GLASS <http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=6Cf7IL_eZ38&vq=medium>

Astonishing.

That which is not seen

Dr Pournelle

I have the Bastiat piece on my Kindle. It is the lead work in a volume entitled "The Economics of Freedom <http://www.amazon.com/The-Economics-Freedom-Professors-ebook/dp/B004QZ9X6M/> ".

In the chapter he titled ‘Restrictions’, Bastiat argues against import duties thus:

—–

[A French iron mill owner, M Prohibant, argues:]

"Belgian iron is sold in France at ten francs, which obliges me to sell mine at the same price. I should like to sell at fifteen, but cannot do so on account of this Belgian iron, which I wish was at the bottom of the Red Sea. I beg you will make a law that no more Belgian iron shall enter France. Immediately I raise my price five francs, and these are the consequences: "For every hundred-weight of iron that I shall deliver to the public, I shall receive fifteen francs instead of ten; I shall grow rich more rapidly, extend my traffic, and employ more workmen. My workmen and I shall spend much more freely to the great advantage of our tradesmen for miles around. These latter, having more custom, will furnish more employment to trade, and activity on both sides will increase in the country. This fortunate piece of money, which you will drop into my strong-box, will, like a stone thrown into a lake, give birth to an infinite number of concentric circles."

Charmed with his discourse, delighted to learn that it is so easy to promote, by legislating, the prosperity of a people, the law-makers voted the restriction. "Talk of labour and economy," they said, "what is the use of these painful means of increasing the national wealth, when all that is wanted for this object is a Decree?"

And, in fact, the law produced all the consequences announced by M. Prohibant; the only thing was, it produced others which he had not foreseen. To do him justice, his reasoning was not false, but only incomplete. In endeavouring to obtain a privilege, he had taken cognizance of the effects which are seen, leaving in the background those which are not seen. He had pointed out only two personages, whereas there are three concerned in the affair. It is for us to supply this involuntary or premeditated omission.

It is true, the crown-piece, thus directed by law into M. Prohibant’s strong-box, is advantageous to him and to those whose labour it would encourage; and if the Act had caused the crownpiece to descend from the moon, these good effects would not have been counterbalanced by any corresponding evils. Unfortunately, the mysterious piece of money does not come from the moon, but from the pocket of a blacksmith, or a nail-smith, or a cartwright, or a farrier, or a labourer, or a shipwright; in a word, from James B., who gives it now without receiving a grain more of iron than when he was paying ten francs. Thus, we can see at a glance that this very much alters the state of the case; for it is very evident that M. Prohibant’s profit is compensated by James B.’s loss, and all that M. Prohibant can do with the crown-piece, for the encouragement of national labour, James B. might have done himself. The stone has only been thrown upon one part of the lake, because the law has prevented it from being thrown upon another.

Therefore, that which is not seen supersedes that which is seen, and at this point there remains, as the residue of the operation, a piece of injustice, and, sad to say, a piece of injustice perpetrated by the law!

[emphasis added]

—–

I say it is M Bastiat’s reasoning which is incomplete. Bastiat assumes a theoretical, frictionless exchange. He assumes — and does not reveal his assumption — that Belgium 1) trades freely, 2) offers no gov’t bounties to ironmakers to lower the price of Belgian iron, 3) produces iron of quality equal to French iron, and 4) that Belgian workers’ pay equals French workers’ pay. There are likely other assumptions he makes that I have missed.

Bastiat took "cognizance of the [things] which are seen, leaving in the background those which are not seen." In this, he was as blind as all economists. He preferred the clean, linear world of theory to the dirty, chaotic world of reality.

The reality is that the French Parlement has a duty to secure prosperity to the French. The only economic means it has to do so in the instant case is import duties. (I suppose the French could invade Belgium, raze the iron factories there, and summarily execute all Belgian ironworkers, but that seems a trifle excessive even for the French. 😉 )

Pat Buchanan in an interview, "Suicide of a Superpower" <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3GG1rFA_QEk> , articulated the case for tariffs better than I can. The interview is an hour long. Buchanan’s first rant against free trade begins 23 minutes in. The second begins 27 minutes in.

I shall close with my own observations. I have seen free trade benefit the wealthy. They can buy goods cheaper. I have seen free trade harm labor. They lose the competition for wages to the Chinese, Vietnamese, and Indonesians. They could buy goods cheaper if they had the money, but they don’t have, and they won’t have. Labor become unemployed, become dependent on the gov’t for handouts, and lose all self-respect for themselves because they no longer work for their bread. Thus, the spirit of the Republic diminishes.

Live long and prosper

h lynn keith

Free trade works when applied with other free enterprises. It is not really free trade when you place enormous regulatory restrictions on your own labor force, then require your factories and labor to compete with imports that face no such regulations. And as Lincoln observed, if I buy a shirt from London, I have the shirt; but if I buy it from a mill in New England the money stays here and I can tax it.

On the other hand, without some free trade you get the situation of the US automobile industry prior to overseas competition; and the internal self destruction of an automobile industry that could not resist paying ever larger sums to those whose productivity was restricted by union rules.

The simple rule is “it’s complicated.” There is such a thing as hostile trade, as the Japanese discovered in Shogun times. But the political class does not think much past the next election. Given that reality, what is to be done? Regulations pile on through the Iron Law. Nations build structure with their wealth. The structure feeds itself and starves everyone else. Free trade is one weapon in slowing that.

As I said, it’s complicated.

USAF Air to air squadron of the year (Raytheon trophy) video – 67FS

Dr. Pournelle,

This video was put together in honor of the 2011 air to air squadron of the year (Raytheon award), the 67FS (F-15C). The video and especially the radio chatter is authentic, a better look at what we do than I’ve ever seen in an unclassified video. I used to do this for a living flying the F-15E instead of the F-15C, but the air to air mission was essentially the same and this video captures it very well.

http://vimeo.com/40935850

If anyone asks why I kept flying fighters after my back injury, I’ll just give them the link to this video.

Sean

Hurrah.

1992 LA Riots

Jerry,

I would hold the Media responsible for the 1992 LA Riots.

If the general public had been shown the same evidence that the Simi Valley jury was shown, the verdict would not have been a surprise.

After the first day or so after Rodney King’s arrest the LA TV Stations stopped showing the complete video of the "beating." The first five seconds or so showing Mr. King trying to get up we’re no longer shown.

The fact that there was a passenger in Mr. King’s car who followed instructions and was restrained without incident was no longer mentioned.

It was interesting to note a correction earlier this week in the LA Times. A story about the zing arrest said that he was handcuffed during the "beating." This was false, he was not handcuffed during the beating. The error occurred because a 1992 LA Times story inaccurately stated that he was.

This type of thing happens frequently. It would seem that much of this is done on purpose to make a story fit the agenda of the Reporter or the reporting entity. A current example is the NBC editing of the Zimmerman 911 call. An earlier one would be the 2004 60 Minutes 2 piece by Dan Rather with the rather obvious Bush National Guard forgeries.

(Dan Rather, based on recent statements, still believes this documents are genuine.)

We as Citizens not only get the Government we deserve through our ignorance and inaction; we also get the type of media we deserve.

Bob Holmes

Steve Barnes asked me what I thought the police were doing in the Rodney King case. I said they thought they were beating hell out of a guy who had taken them on a dangerous high speed chase in a residential district.

If we insist on being guarded only by saints we will have few guardians. If we have few guardians we will have to guard ourselves. Few of us are saints.

The police sometimes get out of control. I was once part of those who watch the watchers – that is, I was Executive Assistant to the Mayor. I went out to police precincts and into problem situations to see what was happening.

If we insist that only saints are fit to guard us, we will have few guardians. It would be nice if it were different.

Jerry: Memory capacity of the human mind.

http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/04/the-human-minds-raw-capacity.html

Unfortunately, my neurons seem to be used for ad jingles and 60’s TV trivia.

Chris C=

Since the cancer treatments my memory has been unreliable, and sometimes humourously so. My only compensation is the knowledge that my lousy data retrieval system now is about what Niven has had for the forty years I have known him. That gives me a bit of hope…

drudge malware

Jerry,

Careful going to drudge report. It’s serving up at least one and maybe two bits of malware. At least that’s what seems to be happening. It’s fairly convincing too. If microsoft security essentials hadn’t reacted, the malware appeared at first glance to be a MSIE feature, stopping a pop-up and offering to block something bad.

In any case, drudge isn’t safe right now.

And apparently fixed. This happens periodically. Fortunately Windows Live Security seems to work pretty well. But I don’t go to Drudge. One advantage of being me is that if something really interesting happens one of my readers will tell me. And I read all my mail in plaintext.

Korea Today

Pohang, Korea

Dr Pournelle

Pohang lies on the east coast of Korea and straddles the Hyeongsan River. <http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=39547> That big reverse L in the middle of the photo is the POSCO steel mill. All the red-colored area belongs to POSCO. The docks south of the mill (to the left of the mill in the photo) belong to POSCO, too. AFAIK the navy yard lies along the Hyeongsan River.

North of the river, Pohang is all residential and tourist districts: restaurants, bars, hotels, and coffee shops dominate the bayside.

South of the river, POSCO owns or controls every square meter. (POSCO used to mean POhang iron and Steel COmpany, but, like AT&T, the acronym became the company name.) Depending on when or whom you ask, POSCO is either the fifth or the third largest maker of steel in the world.

I am visiting Pohang this weekend. The water along the beach is clean and warm, and the beach slopes gently into the bay: 50 meters out I am only chest-deep in the sea. Because the bay is sheltered by the headlands to the south and north, the waters of the bay are flat and rollers rise about 30cm (1 ft) at the beach. I was sitting in one of the numerous coffee shops along the boardwalk when I noticed something. Actually I noticed something missing.

Pollution.

Up to three fingers above the horizon, the air is dusty brown, but the air is dusty brown all over Korea at this time of year because of the yellow dust that blows here from China. (They don’t call it the Yellow River for nothing.) There was a whisper of smoke from the smokestacks at POSCO. If you look again at the photo, you will NOT see a blanket of smoke over the steel mill. Look close enough and you may see a whisp of smoke from the mill extending over the river. But you can see the city of Pohang clearly.

Here’s my point.

I remember pollution. I remember brown skies and black water. I remember weathermen warning us to stay inside. I remember Lake Erie burning. The kids don’t have those memories. The kids have been told all their lives that their air and their water is polluted and that the leetle innocent animals are dying from it and that it is our fault.

I sit a mile from one of the world’s largest operating steel mills, and I look up, and I see blue, blue sky. Within a mile of that same mill, I have enjoyed the clean, warm waters of Pohang Bay.

Draw your own conclusions.

As for me, please tell the fearmongers to sell panic somewhere else. I ain’t buying any.

A Correspondent in Korea.

Just right?

<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/space/9230801/Astronomers-find-new-planet-capable-of-supporting-life.html>

Roland Dobbins

Subject: World Digital Library

Jerry,

Presumably, most of the visitors to Chaos Manor know of this site already, but I ‘rediscovered’ it for myself recently, and thought it would be nice to remind them.

http://www.loc.gov/wdl/

http://www.wdl.org/en/

Tracy

.

“All histories of Rome are histories of empire.”

<http://nationalinterest.org/bookreview/singular-empire-6815?page=show>

Roland Dobbins

The Republic began to change with the incorporation of Sardinia and the parts of Sicily that were ruled rather than admitted to citizenship. Once Romans learned to rule without consent of the governed they applied that principle to others. Over time an empire, still without an emperor, took shape; but that sort of thing is very unstable. Then came Marius and the Gallic invasions, and —

Cardboard Korea

I’ve often said North Korea is like a movie display with cardboard backing.  Still, they have many hungry people that could invade the south in search of groceries.  While they would not hold South Korea forever, they could create serious problems.  Without outside help, I doubt they could sustain a war.  I’m sure the Chinese want to keep their conscripts alive:

<.>

North Korean missiles that were paraded as part of the 100th anniversary celebrations of the country’s founding father, are probably fakes.

The weapons which were showcased to mark Kim Il Sung birthday were heavily criticised by researchers who insisted they would be unable to fly let alone defend the country from potential attacks.

That conclusion has cast further doubt on the country’s claims of military prowess after its recent rocket launch failure.

</>

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2135727/Missiles-paraded-North-Korea-fake-say-scientists.html?ITO=1490

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

I continue to marvel at the US lack of policy with regard to North Korea. Or perhaps we have one that I do not understand.