View 728 Monday, June 11, 2012

The private sector is doing fine says the President. That remark is now being explained as a gaffe, but it wasn’t, really. He meant it. To the President the only problem with the economy is that it relies too much on the private sector, and thus there’s not enough to spend on the public sector. The economy sucks because the government doesn’t have enough money to spend, but all that can be fixed with the proper revenue enhancements. The worst of it is that he really believes that.

I have trouble believing that, but I have heard enough commentators to convince me: it really is the view of not just the President but many of those in his ideological group. The only problem with the world is that it the government doesn’t have enough control. Rational planning will do the job. We just need to rationally allocate all those resources, spend them wisely, eliminate duplication – why do we need twenty five different brands of laundry soap? — and all will be well. Why, pretty soon, we’ll have computers good enough to give us a real Five Year Plan! It only takes the courage to do it, and we’ll end all this horrible income discrepancy, take care of the poor and sick and unfortunate and give them a dignified way of life with credit cards not welfare, and a few of the luxuries that make life pleasant, and it only takes wanting to do it, and overcoming the resistance of those selfish people who have so much more than they need, more than they can spend, more than anyone needs. And we can build a Great Society.

I can dimly remember believing something like that for a couple of years when I was younger.

Historically we do know of one way to have rapid economic growth, how to go from real hardship to prosperity in a generation, and that with far less productivity than we’re capable of now. It was called the German Economic Miracle. An odd variant of it happened with Japan, which also went from rubble to wealth. And in Hong Kong, where there was literally nothing. Nor should we forget the United States.

We know how to create great wealth. Of course it won’t be evenly distributed, and the resulting economy will be hard on those of little or no ability, and even on some who are able but unlucky, or not motivated. A booming economy can make for hard cheese on some at the bottom. Of course it also creates fortunes that can often be spent in odd ways, like building libraries and universities, or founding welfare missions or funding the Salvation Army (or the Salvation Navy as Aimee Semple McPherson liked to call her mission). But you can’t count on all that. You can’t count on individuals to have wealth and be interested in generosity. Better to have regulations, and provide for the unfortunate through bureaucracies, and well, so you have to live with the Iron Law.

And socialism works for a while. Until it runs out of money. We’re at that stage now. The United States can recover in an amazingly short time: we just need someone to go on the radio and announce an end to federal regulations.

That isn’t going to happen, but I can give you one law that will greatly increase the output of the United States and build an enormous growth in the economy, with much new hiring. Simply double down on the small business exemptions. All the exemptions that apply to businesses with 10 or fewer employees now apply to all those with 20 or fewer. Exemptions for those employing fewer than 50 now apply to all those with 100 or fewer. Etc. The whole legislation wouldn’t require more than a couple of pages even translated into legalese, it could be adopted in a week, and applied in a month.

Of course we won’t try it.

The President bemoans the loss of critical government jobs. They’re laying off teachers and fire fighters. This is horrible.

Since they haven’t laid off the Bunny Inspectors, I doubt that they’re serious about any of this. Any of us can, within an hour, come up with a list of government workers doing things that we can’t really afford, and certainly ought not be borrowing money to have done. There might even be a few in the Fire Department, which very likely has some cubicle workers doing things that we don’t really need to have done. We all know that if government, or education, were serious about saving money much of what has to be done can be done for about half what we’re spending. But that would mean laying off cubicle workers and Bunny Inspectors and Department of Education people who can’t explain what they are doing, and the California state employee who went into the furniture store and confiscated a chair to be taken out and burned to test its fireproofing,, and – well, you get the idea.

They’re not serious out there. And until someone gets serious things will keep getting worse.

I don’t know many Mormons, and I know little of what they believe; but of the Mormons I have met I do not know one I haven’t some admiration for. The ones I know are industrious and serious, and I suspect there are no Mormon bunny inspectors. I could be wrong on that one, but the Mormon I know do tend to be serious and have purposes. I don’t think I know of any Mormons in Acorn or who work in Saul Alinsky community organizer jobs. Romney was not my first choice for Republican candidate, but he does seem to be serious; and he is the least establishment of the Establishment Republicans I know. And having listened to him discuss the Massachusetts health care plan, I understand why he tried it – I would not have – but I also understand that his view of states’ rights is much closer to mine than that of anyone to have held the office of President for a long time. I grew up with the Democrats were the states’ rights party (yes, I know, and it was a long time ago). If compulsory insurance is going to be tried, the states are the place to try it; and we can all learn from what happened in Massachusetts, and rejoice that it isn’t federal, and after all, isn’t that the way things are supposed to work?

If the Tea Party can get out the vote, and show that it can win in a ground game, it will have a great deal of influence in both House and Senate – and will have in the White House someone who shares some of their views on transparency and subsidiarity. It’s unlikely that self government advocates can wrest back control of the Democratic Party so long as it can continue to win offices with its present tactics, but control of the Republican Party is up for grabs. This election will be crucial in that. Now go take back your government.

I had no intention of watching the pilot of Bunheads, and having done it I will watch the rest of the episodes. I was not familiar with Sutton Foster, but she is perfect in this role. Amazingly so. She is a classically trained dancer working in a Las Vegas chorus, and getting older without having anywhere to go. She finds a way out, and it’s believable. Then there’s Kelly Bishop, Shiela in the stage production of Chorus Line, who is damned near perfect in a very difficult role. It’s not a deep show, there’s plenty of comedy and even some pratfalls, but it has a depth that most of the new comedies don’t have. I liked what I saw, and I’m waiting for more.

View 727 Friday, June 08, 2012

The headlines say

U.N. could tax U.S.-based Web sites, leaked docs show

Global Internet tax suggested by European network operators, who want Apple, Google, and other Web companies to pay to deliver content, is proposed for debate at a U.N. agency in December.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-1009_3-57449375-83/u.n-could-tax-u.s.-based-web-sites-leaked-docs-show/

And earlier it was

U.N. takeover of the Internet must be stopped, U.S. warns

A U.N. summit later this year in Dubai could lead to a new international regime of censorship, taxes, and surveillance, warn Democrats, Republicans, the Internet Society, and father of the Internet Vint Cerf.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-1009_3-57444629-83/u.n-takeover-of-the-internet-must-be-stopped-u.s-warns/

Both of which are frightening enough. It’s certainly true that the UN and its various bureaucratic agencies, most of them ruled by “one nation – one vote” international organizations dominated by small “developing” countries would like to get in on the Internet game. They do make money out of long distance telephone calls, and they don’t get anything from the Internet; the impulse to collect money from anyone who has it can be considerable.

It’s also true that bureaucracies being what they are, they will always try to shake down anyone or anything they believe they can get money out of. They are also perfectly capable of working with fellow bureaucrats in other nations, and they have a fair amount of money to spend on such operations.

The remedy for all this is to be aware of it. The UN bureaucrats don’t have any means of enforcement, nor do they actually control the wired and wireless connections that make the international part of the Internet work. We could, in a fit of absentmindedness, give them such control, but we aren’t likely to so long as enough people remain aware of the threat, But it’s hardly surprising that they’d try. And of course such fantasies illustrate why a significant part of the United States wants to “Get the UN out of the US and the US out of the UN,” a political goal that surfaces periodically.

Sentiment for getting the US out of the UN is generally labeled ‘extremist’ by the media, not entirely without reason – the John Birch Society was a hard supporter of the idea – and there hasn’t been serious debate on the subject for a long time, but that hasn’t always been the case. The Bricker Amendment debates during the Eisenhower administration were quite serious, and Bricker;s bill failed by only one vote despite the opposition of President Eisenhower. Since that time Supreme Court decisions have accomplished much of what Bricker’s amendments intended to do, namely to make it clear that the US cannot give away the Bill of Rights by treaty.

It may be time to renew that debate, given the voraciousness of international bureaucracies.

The fallout from the Wisconsin election is not over. One Republican state senator was apparently defeated by some 700 votes, but there is widespread belief that some of the votes were questionable. It’s another confirmation of the importance of getting out the vote. A hundred precinct workers who each brought in ten voters would have made the difference.

Self government requires work. Those who would have self government must be willing to do some of the work of governing.

Are you ready for this one?

<.>

"It is absolutely clear that the economy is not doing fine. That’s why I had a press conference," Obama said.

</>

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/06/08/12127428-obama-it-is-absolutely-clear-that-the-economy-is-not-doing-fine?lite?ocid=twitter

Maybe next he can introduce legislation to Congress that would legally bind the economy to do fine, or else we would have to penalize the economy? That might preclude the need for more press conferences…

It gets better:

<.>

The president’s initial remarks were intended to portray the relative weakness in public sector hiring — an outgrowth of spending cuts at the federal, state and local level — versus the private sector. The drop off in public employment has been a drag on the overall employment picture; the economy added just 69,000 jobs last month, a number that was so low, in part, because of anemic public sector hiring.

</>

So the answer is *more government*? The only reason the jobs report is ever positive is because of all the public sector viz. government jobs and the accounting tricks they play with those numbers. So, they’ve run out of options to "cook the books"? I suspect we’ll be seeing a lot more press conferences if these are seen as a solution to our problems.

It gets even better:

<.>

"You know, and what I’m interested in hearing from Congress and Mr. Romney is what steps are they willing to take right now that are going to make an actual difference?" Obama asked. "And so far, all we’ve heard are additional tax cuts to the folks who are doing fine, as opposed to taking steps that would actually help deal with the weaknesses in the economy and promote the kind of economic growth that we would all like to see."

</>

You know, I’d be interested in hearing what you plan to do to make this better. So far, all you’ve done is restrict capital, regulate business into near non-existence, and now you propose to tax the only people who might actually invest in economic growth. I hate to bust up your policies, but when you give more money to the poor, the poor do not invest in new businesses or economic growth. The people whose taxes you’re trying to raise are more likely to do that. If you think wealth redistribution works, you should take a look at the Soviet Union or China under Mao. But, then again, these Marxists always have some excuse why it didn’t work there and why it would certainly work this time: that is, until it doesn’t and then they blame someone else for their lacks of policy.

I can’t wait for the next press conference…

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

Obama is now calling for ‘investment’ in the infrastructure of the country – this after TARP and other bailouts, the Obama Stash giveaways, etc.. We continue to borrow money to pay grownup civil servants to attend magic shows to be certain that stage magicians have federal licenses to use rabbits in their shows – or that they kill the rabbit as part of the act, in which case no license is needed. Presumably that is one way to build infrastructure?

Next we will hear about shovel-ready jobs. Just send money to Obama.

And I am hearing on the radio that they are going to have a  tax on wire coathangers. As it happens, last night at LASFS I saw a copy of Avram Davidson’s Or All the Seas with Oysters. 

Actually the radio story is vague, and may be based on something older http://www.thefreemanonline.org/features/dry-cleaning-economics-in-one-lesson/.  On the other hand, the government may be back looking  for more money. The ability of government to absorb money will always exceed what it collects.

I have a great amount of mail on this subject; thanks to all who reminded me.

Re: "Take Back Your Go’vt" being out of print

That is true, but Baen books has it out as an e-book. With your forward in it I believe, and notes. I someone brought this up to you a while back and you printed the letter with comments somewhere on your site. They also have several of your books as e-books there as well… I think I bought everything that they offered of your work.

Anyhow, here’s a link to where you can get the e-book "Take Back Your Government"

http://www.baenebooks.com/p-1154-take-back-your-government.aspx

I read it while over in Afghanistan and found it to be really entertaining, and informative. I had looked for an old paperback copy for years and years before I found the e-book version and I’m glad I shelled out the five bucks to get it, a bargain in my opinion. It’s relatively difficult to get a decent priced used copy.

Well enjoy and etc.

Patrick

And I’ll have a mailbag shortly, but here’s the picture of the day:

Titan and Saturn

Jerry,

A picture of Titan and Saturn

<http://saturn.jpl.nasa.gov/photos/raw/rawimagedetails/index.cfm?imageID=259213>

….taken on May 06, 2012 and received on Earth May 07, 2012. The camera was pointing toward TITAN at approximately 475,131 miles (764,649 kilometers) away….

Regards, Charles Adams, Bellevue, NE

View 727 Thursday, June 07, 2012

I was going to write a short piece on the Republican ground game in Wisconsin, but Karl Rove has done that in this morning’s Wall Street Journal, and it’s worth your time. In a Blue State, the state in which the Progressive Movement was born, the Republicans got more of their people to the polls than the Democrats despite the bussed in out of state union poll workers. The recall result was so decisive that there was, apparently, little fraud – although there’s evidence that there are “undiscovered” boxes of mail in ballots which will now conveniently be forgotten, since there aren’t enough to change this landslide.

The important message is

The recall contest was expected to be close. A Democratic pollster had the race at three points just a few days out. GOP tracking surveys showed the contest tightening as well. Yet Mr. Walker won by 172,739 votes, up from his 2010 margin of 124,638 votes. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303665904577450533294600706.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

This was a maximum effort mission for the unions. You may be sure that the Democrats played their best ground game in this election, which, after all, they launched because of the governor’s actions on collective bargaining by public employee unions. Maximum effort, and they lost.

What this should mean to the Tea Party and other Republicans is that the kind of politics described in Mr. Heinlen’s Take Back Your Government is still relevant. Much of the book is out of date (and the book is out of print, alas) but his point was that it is still possible for citizens to be part of self government.

Of course self government requires citizens willing to take part in self government. That has always been the problem. Historically, when it was far less important who held public office, you could get by as things deteriorated until citizens had had enough and organized a “good government” movement to “turn the rascals out;” the politicians would sigh, retreat a bit, wait patiently for the googoos to find that government is time consuming and often boring, and come back in.

The new system in which public employee unions donate money to politicians who then vote raises, pensions, medical care, and other goodies for public employees looked impregnable, and perhaps in places gone as far as California (where for instance the prison guards are paid great sums while the courts hold the state prison conditions to be intolerable, this in a state where it costs 4 times as much per head to keep a prisoner as it does in other states), but not all states have gone that far. Wisconsin clearly hadn’t.

It was a bad mistake for Romney not to have been on the victory platform with Governor Walker, but it wasn’t a crippling one, and Romney is trying his best to make up for it as political strategists consider the implications of the Wisconsin election.

What’s important here is that the war is not lost. It is possible to reverse the trend. For a while, at least, you can take back your government. The key is to be involved. The ground game is still the most important game in politics. There have been historic elections decided by one vote per precinct. It’s tougher now – but in this upcoming election the stakes couldn’t be higher.

And we can win.

Heinlein Take

Robert A Heinlein’s "Take Back Your Government!" is available as a Baen eBook, for $5. I have it on my Kindle. The link is http://www.baenebooks.com/p-1154-take-back-your-government.aspx.

If you order it, you can download it in many reader formats, without DRM, including an RTF file, which can be loaded into many word processing programs.

Philip Widing

The Boy President, Bill Clinton, is now being excused for some of his remarks because he is 65 years old. http://www.newser.com/story/147603/team-clinton-shut-up-bubba.html

I have this mail:

You know

That, as it was, the voter turnout was 119%, and yet we won. Imagine the slaughter it would have been if ONLY THE TRUE VOTES were counted? One per valid voter? Try to imagine the truth.

cmblake6

But I have no idea what it means. Does anyone have actual data? My speculations about boxes of uncounted votes are pure speculation based on past history: when votes are close, somehow there are always uncounted ballots.

View 727 Wednesday, June 06, 2012

D-Day

RIP Ray Bradbury. I’ll have something original in a few days. Ray was a long time friend, and we used to meet for lunch sometimes when he had an office in the Bradbury Building downtown. I have not seen him recently and all my Ray Bradbury stories are a bit elderly. Ray affected writing more than he intended to: he made short stories look much easier than they are. A lot of new writers fell for that. In the early days Ray was a fantasy writer in a science fiction world – it’s hard to remember that science fiction used to sell much better than fantasy – but he could do science fiction as well, witness Fahrenheit 451. At one time the whole genre was dominated by “ABC”, Asimov, Bradbury, and Clarke, although usually someone would quickly add Robert Heinlein. Now the Big Four are gone. They will all be missed.

It was a good day for the republic. Everyone was nervous about the Wisconsin recall election, and all the political professionals were uncertain, the result being that neither Romney nor Obama came into the state to comment on the election. Romney’s advisors feared further irritation of the unions (although it is hard to understand why, since they’re going to hate him no matter what he does) and Obama feared being associated with a loser. One suspects that Obama’s political advisors had more confidence in their prediction that the recall election would be a disaster for Democrats and best stayed away from, while Romney’s advisors feared up to the last moment that the unions would pull legal rabbits out of the hat and find reasons for perpetual recounts.

It was a good day for Romney, but not as good as it might have been: he could have been standing with Walker at the victory speech. I hope he has learned something from that. His remarks on the election were good, and he has named Walker a hero; and we can hope he has learned that Walker’s advisors are probably smarter than his present team. But it was a good day for the Republic.

I had a few other reactions last night.

Someone sent me a link to this. Blast from the past and all that… http://articles.latimes.com/1985-10-27/magazine/tm-13029_1_chaos-manor. Interesting times.

And digging about for other stuff, I found:

http://www.jerrypournelle.com/archives2/archives2view/view259.html#Friday

in which I comment on my views on the Iraqi War, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and such matters in 2003. I don’t seen anything in there that I wouldn’t say now.

And finally here’s a reading list: http://www.jerrypournelle.com/archives2/archives2mail/mail259.html#LIST

Now it’s lunch time.

Comment on last night’s mail:

Slow glass 

As I’m sure others have pointed out by now, the story “Light of Other Days”, which introduced slow glass, is by Bob Shaw, not Sturgeon. It happens to be my favorite SF short story of all time – a perfect little gem.

Of course, the new technology isn’t slow glass in one important respect: the video can be replayed at will. Both of Shaw’s short stories (not the novel) are based on the enforced delay before you can see what was on the other side.

–Milton

I should have trusted my instincts. I had a suspicion that Slow Glass was not Sturgeon but I didn’t remember anyone else doing it.