Sable is recovering; A few words about Bastille Day, history, and legend.

View 732 Saturday, July 14, 2012

 

Happy Bastille Day

 

Sable came home from the vet ravenously thirsty, but when she drank water she vomited it. I became concerned about hydration and also about electrolytes. We kept her from other water sources and I began giving her small amounts of water with a pinch of salt at about hour intervals. She continued to have stomach upset until about 2300, then she settled down, and about 0300 I gave her a last drink with some electrolytes and went to bed. This morning she was much more alert, and hungry. We gave her her pills, and a bit of water, and then her breakfast. She are it all and begged for her treats. Not as vigorously as usual, but she was hungry.

We are about to take her for a short walk. She’s not her usual hyper perky self, but she’s interested in the world and eager to go out, so we’re pretty sure things are all right now.

I didn’t get a lot of sleep so I’m a bit behind, but I’ll try to catch up.

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I haven’t paid such close attention as I might to the state of the nation, but it’s the silly season. Nothing much has changed. No one has made any gross mistakes unless you can call the President’s promises to fix things in three years or be a one term president a mistake, and that one was made three years ago.

The House has shown that the Republicans can repeal Obamacare if they win this November. This election really does become a plebiscite on just how much of the economy do we want to trust to the Feds.

And I am out for a walk.

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Bastille Day

Dr. Pournelle:

I respectfully suggest that there’s not really much to celebrate about this day, certainly if Mr. von Kuehnelt-Leddihn’s article contains much in the way of fact.

http://culturewars.com/CultureWars/Archives/Fidelity_archives/parricide.html

If anything, this day should be remembered as the start of a time of monstrous evil, by monstrous men. And a reminder that such things can happen anywhere. Even here.

Mark Schaeber

From the View for July 14, 2008 http://www.jerrypournelle.com/view/2008/Q3/view527.html

 

Bastille Day

On July 14, 1789, the Paris revolutionaries with aid of the local militia stormed the Bastille, a fortress in downtown Paris which was similar in purpose to the Tower of London. The revolutionaries freed all the prisoners held in the Bastille on royal warrants. They were all aristocrats: four forgers, two madmen, and a young man who had challenged the best swordsman in Paris to a duel, and whose father had him locked up so that the duel could not take place. The garrison consisted largely of invalid and retired French soldiers. After the surrender much of the garrison was slaughtered and their heads paraded on pikes. The four forgers vanished. The two madmen were sent to the common madhouse where they much missed the special treatment they’d had in the Bastille. The final freed prisoner joined the Revolution, became Citizen Egalite, and was later killed by guillotine in the Place de la Concorde for joining the wrong faction.

Since the fall of the Bastille France has enjoyed a number of governments including The Directorate, the Consulate, The First Empire, the Restoration, The 100 Days, The Second Restoration with several variants including the July Monarchy, the Second Republic, The Second Empire, The Commune of Paris, The Third Republic whose Constitution was framed to allow the possible return of the Monarchy, the Vichy regime, and the various permutations since the end of World War Two.

Lest we be too proud, the bloodiest war in US history was our Civil War; and while we have not had any formal changes of government since the Constitution of 1789, our Supreme Court has certainly rewritten the Constitution to the extent that we can probably boast of having at least three different forms of government since the Civil War.

=======

I have often told this story in my comments on Bastille day (e.g. http://www.jerrypournelle.com/archives2/archives2view/view318.html) and the true story of the fall of the bastille was always a part of the seminars I taught on political theory. I was in a hurry this morning and neglected to do so.

I always have mixed emotions about this. National patriotic holidays celebrate myths and legends, and myth and legend may be more informative than the historical truth. Much of what we feel for George Washington is from a safe distance. He was a man much larger than life, and far more to be admired that most Kings designated “the Great”, but as the sad movement of ‘truth in history’ of a few years ago told us, he had bad fitting wooden false teeth, and he drank a lot of brandy although there is no evidence that he ever made any important decisions while under its influence. I would rather contemplate General Washington, whose men would have followed him to Hell, sitting in the hot summer weather of Philadelphia presiding over the Constitutional Convention than his evenings in which he tempered the misery of his separation from home and family for the delights of a Philadelphia rooming house and a bottle of brandy.

The legend of the Bastille is that the French people rose up against tyranny in the name of Liberty. Doubtless most of those who assaulted the Bastille thought they were doing so. Alas, the truth is more harsh.  But Edmund Burke dealt with all that in his Reflections on the Revolution, another of those books like Ortega’s Revolt of the Masses, The Education of Henry Adams, and The Federalist Papers that civilized people of all nations ought to read at some point in their educational process.

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Sable down a bit; Condolezza Rice; and we need to make bigger pies

View 732 Friday, July 13, 2012

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Sable wouldn’t eat her breakfast this morning. That’s alarming. Breakfast is her most important meal, and she has a ritual of eating it fast so she can beg PetTab vitamins and anything else she can get while we eat breakfast and read the morning papers. This morning she just wanted water.

Then she heard her friend the pool man and got up the energy to go outside, but she still didn’t eat, and we found what has to be the cause: during the night she seems to have found a number of tomatoes and managed to eat them after which she threw them up. Then she drank water and vomited that. And did that again. Clearly time for the vet. By the time we got to the vet she had done more drinking water and vomiting and had perked up a bit but she still passed her uneaten breakfast on the way out the door.

Bottom line she’s been left at the vet. It’s likely the tomatoes and her drinking a purging has probably taken care of much of it but she’ll spend the day there, leaving us worried as you’d imagine so don’t expect any sense from me today. We hope to pick her up this afternoon and get back to normal. And store the tomatoes in the refrigerator in future. But for now we worry.

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The rumors are flying about Condoleezza Rice as a possible VP candidate with Romney. The rumor began with Drudge. Juan Williams loves the idea. Surprisingly, Sarah Palin says Ms. Rice would be a wonderful candidate. Others worry about her position on abortion, which appears to be mildly “pro choice” but is never anything she really wants to discuss.

She certainly has experience, and her foreign policy views tend to moderation, and to the conservation of American power. She comes from Stanford which has a number of liberal professors, but she’s a fellow of the Hoover Institution which was an intellectual power center for cold warriors – Possony and Richard Allen were both Hoover Fellows. It isn’t easy to characterize her. She gets along with the Republican establishment but she certainly can’t be said to be an Establishment Republican. She learned her policy trade during the Cold War but she wasn’t really a Cold Warrior.

All of which is probably not really important. Actually I would be astonished if she could be induced to leave her academic security for the political maelstrom with all the journalistic focus on every possible interpretation of every discoverable statement or action in her personal life, from her failed engagement in the seventies to her statements about abortion. She is clearly concerned about the country, and clearly feels it a duty to do what she can to assist the Republican cause; which says a lot about her opinion of the Obama Administration. I think she prefers academic life out of the spotlight, and her recent political activities show an unusual motivation; that should be significant to thoughtful people.

I don’t believe she is seriously considering running for Vice President. I do believe she will support whomever is chosen to be a candidate.

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I see that academics but not politicians are beginning to notice that there are fewer workers every year, and more and more people living off entitlements. Fewer children are being born. That means that in future years more and more entitled people will live off the production of fewer and fewer workers.

This limits political alternatives. Austerity – cut entitlements, cut spending. Deficits, but the trend lines are toward more entitled vs. fewer workers, meaning a very unattractive environment to loan into. Revenue enhancement, which is more taxes, which generally lowers productivity and investment and more and more capital becoming annuities for rentier classes – unproductive rich.

There is an alternative, and everyone pays lip service to it, but few seem to take it seriously. That is: it is much easier to divide a large pie than a small one. Increase productivity, preferably by orders of magnitude. Charlie Sheffield and I gave a bit of a vision of that in HIGHER EDUCATION. Of course to divide a pie you must make a pie, and if your notion of productivity is ever more complex financial derivatives and every faster ways to move money in circles, there may come a time when people who actually make something will decide they don’t need your ‘service’ economy. For someone to have a house to live in, someone must have built that house – or at least have made the steel for a prefab. For people to eat bread, someone must grow, harvest, ship, and process grain, and someone else must bake that into bread. If the baker discovers he doesn’t need or can’t afford your financial services, you may have some problems.

I note that much productive machinery is for sale used in America, cheap. And China now makes 46% of the world’s steel. The US manufactures 6%. Contemplate those percentages in the earlier days of Communism and Capitalism.  It wasn’t all that long ago that Stalin hoped to bring Russia’s steel production up toward America’s. He chose central planning as the means to get that. The Five Year Plans would do the job.

America now seems to have adopted the Soviet system of central regulation, and while our productivity per worker is high, we aren’t so big in the world economy as we used to be. In 1950 about 10% of Americans worked in manufacturing, mining, and logging. Now it’s about 4%. Those 4% are highly productive per worker – but there are many unemployed workers, and there is a great deal of idle productivity machinery for sale in the used markets. Some try to take advantage of that but the regulatory environment isn’t what it was in 1950. It takes not only capital but non-productive compliance officers to start a manufacturing business, and the business must be able not only to pay its real expenses but also for non-productive people required by regulations. The result is that many prefer to invest their money elsewhere. In South East Asia, or in China.

Just some things to think about.

We know how to create employment and productivity. We knew that in 1950. It wasn’t five year plans. And if we had any doubts, we could observe the German Economic Miracle.

All right, we won’t try the German Economic Miracle of simply ignoring the regulations and encouraging people to hire anyone willing to work and go make money. Could we at least try increasing the small business exemptions? It would take about a week for Congress to say that in all federal regulations, exemptions that now apply to businesses with x or fewer employees now apply to businesses with x + y% employees. I’d make y 100%, which is to say the exemption is now 2x: if you are exempt from a regulation by dint of having 10 or fewer employees, it is now 20 or fewer; if 40 it is now 80; if 50 it is now 100. And so forth. Easy to understand, no complicated language needed – and it would result in a lot of companies buying some of that used manufacturing equipment and hiring people to use it; it would result in making a bigger pie. Perhaps it would result in less need for regulators, but most of them are aging and will be pensioned soon enough anyway.

And we’d have a bigger pie.

I don’t expect anyone to pay attention to this. But I have never heard a good argument against it.

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Eminent Domain, Higgs, Ghost Cities, XCOR, and much more.

Mail 732 Wednesday, July 11, 2012

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On the San Bernardino County notion of using eminent domain to take over underwater mortgages at fair market value and renegotiate with householders to let them restructure the loan. Banks would have to sell at current value; owner/occupiers would start with zero equity but begin to acquire equity as they paid down the mortgage. This is under discussion in San Bernardino. We have a great deal of mail on this. Here is a selection.

Eminent Domain to solve the housing crisis

It seems to me that this is probably what most people had in mind when they heard all the various government figures talking about "a solution to the economic crisis". Instead we got a half billion dollars to guarantee that banks could still pay bonuses, and another half billion to prop up pension funds for a couple years.=

==

Thoughts on banks, counties, underwater mortgages…

I have a vague notion that one or more of the federal bailout schemes allows banks to carry on their books underwater mortgages as though they are not… If such is the case, having those mortgages seized by the county – even though the county pays current fair market value – will force the banks to recognize for accounting purposes losses which all have been pretending never happened. This could reduce a bank’s capital to the point it would be forced into bankruptcy or a takeover. Then the limits of FDIC insurance, if enforced, would pass the losses to depositors…possibly even that very county and it’s various pension/retirement plans.

And given the way mortgages were securitized and then sliced and diced, with state and local deed and mortgage recording requirements sometimes evaded to save recording fees and taxes, it might not be possible to seize a mortgage related to a specific property. In some instances banks have been unable to foreclose delinquent properties because they could not prove ownership of the mortgage.

http://www.massrealestatelawblog.com/2011/01/07/ibanez-foreclosure-ruling-upheld-an-indictment-of-the-securitized-mortgage-system/

And no one, to my knowledge, has been criminally charged over this. In fact, some who probably should have been charged and convicted have been bonused instead.

Charles Brumbelow

==

San Bernardino Theft

The fair market value of those homes that are being talked about in San Bernadino has never been established, because so much of the distressed property has not gone under the auction gavel. A great amount of it is owned by the federal government through loan guarantees put forward by Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac – and the Obama plan is to sell them in bulk to investment firms to rent out – again, not letting the market set the value.

In fact, this plan harms all home owners as well as home buyers – not only is the bottom of the market never created, but the natural upswing that would benefit those who are treading water at the moment will never come – A floor isn’t established, but the top of the market sure is, and homes that wouldn’t be ‘underwater’ become that way as neighbor’s house after neighbor’s house is seized, with the county becoming effectively a landlord.

More problematic is where does San Bernardino come up with the money for this plan? They’re already scraping the bottom to just cover the interest they owe to CALPERs for the losses from the dot.com bust – they’ve yet to pay back a penny of the actual losses to CALPERs, and just barely pay the interest on what those losses would have brought.

The most frightening words anyone can ever hear are: I’m from the government, and I’m here to help.

Gary

Gary Fuller

I think the San Bernardino proposal is a worthwhile experiment; this is precisely the kind of innovative thinking we need at the *local* level.

Like you, I instinctively a) saw a lot I liked about the San Bernadino proposal and b) felt that it was worth trying *as long as it was handled at the local level, not by the Federal government*.

Were the Federal government to propose such a scheme, I would be unalterably opposed to it. But if San Bernardino does something I don’t like, I can always move to San Diego, or Los Angeles, or Parsippany.

Because liberals believe in human perfectibility, they don’t understand the importance of the ability to escape governmental experiments gone wrong, and how Federalism provides such an escape hatch. Conservatives always look for an exit strategy.

——-

Roland Dobbins

Actually it’s more complicated than at first blush. Still not a good idea.

Ron Mullane

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-07-07/california-cities-considering-legal-theft-private-property?tw_p=twt

Eminent Domain and the housing bubble

Jerry,

Bad idea for counties to try to "help" the underwater homeowner. Just as the federal government originally created the housing bubble by bankrolling a scheme in which everyone could be a homeowner, the county government will bankroll this latest scheme the same way – by plundering the taxpayers.

Morally this only makes sense if one can assume that housing is a right of some kind, and that rights are granted by the government.

The county government can really help the homeowners in only one way – by easing the property tax burden. Homeowners who bought in at highly inflated prices pay huge property taxes as Prop. 13 does not help them. But this would require a shrinkage of the county bureaucracy; a zero probability as Pournelle’s Iron Law shows us.

Regards,

Brian Claypool

I probably got more mail on this than any other subject this year. I have given some of the range of that mail above. My own view is that a county is very likely to be the proper level for such experiments. I am not sure what I would decide were it my decision to make. I do know that until the uncertainties are cleared out of this, the real estate situation will remain very bad. I do agree that there are complexities we probably have not thought out.

It is generally considered a good thing for a republic to have a large middle class: those who possess the goods of fortune in moderation. Housing ownership is economically an interference with the mobility of labor, but a very conservative influence on behavior and is usually considered a good thing. All that can be debated. No one is thinking entitlement here: the question is one of what to do about a particular disaster that has happened due in part to government activity – pressure on lending organizations to make loans to those who should not have been borrowing – and government injection of money into the market was a major cause of the bubble in housing. That bubble has burst and until its effects are cleared away there will be mounting problems, particularly as houses are abandoned and slowly destroyed. A giant potlatch is probably not a good idea.

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XCOR Leaves California for Texas –

Are any of us surprised?

A commercial aerospace firm based in eastern Kern County announced Monday that it is expanding its operations to Texas, a move characterized by some observers as an avoidable economic loss to Kern County and the state as a whole.

XCOR Aerospace, a manufacturer of reusable rocket engines and the developer of the Lynx, a suborbital space plane designed to carry two persons or scientific experiments to the edge of space, announced the move Monday at a press conference in Midland, Texas, the site of its new research and development center.

Indeed, Greason has described the growing space port in eastern Kern as "the Silicon Valley of the private space industry" and the premier location for civilian flight research and testing in the United States.

But California’s less favorable tax and regulatory environment — and its inability to pass timely liability protection for companies planning to invest in commercial space tourism — made it easier to make the move, he said.

"We did look at three or four other sites," he said. "Each had different strengths. But the folks in Midland were very persuasive."

Gov. Perry was on hand Monday to welcome XCOR.

http://www.bakersfieldcalifornian.com/business/local/x920645887/Texas-lures-pioneering-space-firm-from-Mojave

And where is Jerry Brown? Pitching pie-in-the-sky trains and tax initiatives.

Dave

(Krecklow)

Astonishing. Who would have seen that coming? Mojave once had a future as a spaceport but I do not think it will for long. Oklahoma and Texas want such companies.

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On Roberts: A Dialogue

Roberts

Hi Jerry,

Your analysis is the best I’ve seen to explain why Roberts did what he did, and I agree that this election is critically important.

I just wish we were running Reagan and not Romney. We sorely need a statesman with grand vision (not just the guy who’s turn it is) right now.

Cheers,

Doug

I doubt you could find many among my readers who do not wish we were running Reagan rather than Romney. But wishing you had a full house when what you’ve got is three kings is not the best poker strategy. One plays the hand one is dealt. I have been here before.

I was a County Chairman for Goldwater…

Jerry Pournelle

Chaos Manor

I’m not sure that Romney is as good a hand as three kings, but if there were ever a year he could win this is it. I’m in the ground game here in Colorado too – precinct vice-chair. There’s a lot of despair here because the CO GOP is controlled by hard-right social conservatives who believe that we’re in a bright red state (it’s actually very purple). They pulled some shenanigans with civil unions at the end of the session that has the (rich) homosexual lobby riled up. It was like throwing fresh meat to rabid dogs (or a vulnerable republican to the liberal media).

As my dad always says, the Republicans never fail to miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.

In the end though, my real question is this. Can we actually roll back socialism? It now appears that even Reagan only put it on pause for 8 years, and then it continued its march towards serfdom. The only thing that comes to mind as a true rollback was, ironically, Clinton’s welfare reform, which now has been totally reversed by Bush II and Obama.

The real issue is how to change the culture. That takes a very very long time, and involves both a selfless (I’m going to take care

of myself) and selfish (I want to keep what’s mine) attitude that is sadly lacking among a growing majority of Americans. It’s

hard to get people to stop voting themselves someone else’s money, you know?

Cheers,

Doug

Changing the culture requires changing the schools which requires modifying towards abolition of credentialism. The more bureaucratic crap you put in the way of becoming a teacher the more bureaucrats you get as teachers. When they are then told to promote equality over merit they will do it. The result is what you are seeing.

Read Ortega for more.

But I think this is a year of big setback for the left. It will give us a chance to reassess and rebuild.

Eternal vigilance and all that, you know

Be of good cheer

Jerry Pournelle

Chaos Manor

Thanks Jerry – and you’re exactly right. I hadn’t put together why the left so adamantly opposes vouchers (when the primary beneficiaries are lower income folks). That’s the last piece in the puzzle.

We’ll do what we can for the ground game out here. If California ever gets too much for your family, Colorado is still a nice place to live!

Cheers,

Doug

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Higgs

Jerry,

Regarding your brief note on the Higgs. I’ve been frying other fish this weekend (as usual) but looked up the press releases when they come out. (I will be presenting at least some analysis in my presentation at LibertyCon…)

What they have said is a very conservative:

1. Each detector has an apparent particle with a five standard deviation excess of events over background, summed over the decay modes that the detectors can observe (2-photon and two-charged-lepton-pair decays, the former with high statistics and high background, the latter with low statistics but low background).

2. In that set of detectable decay modes, with significantly reduced statistics because of the systematic effects contributing to detection of the individual decay modes, the ratio of events is consistent with a Standard Model Higgs.

Just to confirm whether this is a Standard-Model Higgs, a NON-Standard Model Higgs, or something else will require from 10 to 20 dB more data, in my estimation. That includes picking up additional decay modes (one of the detectors sees a modest excess of events in a third decay mode).

As for me, I am certainly interested but I remain …well, prejudiced, is probably the best term — that the conventional Higgs does not exist as such. In part because I believe that energy and mass are intimately coupled, and the presence of mass does not require an ad-hoc additional field to provide it given that we know the system has energy present in other quantum fields. See the Feynman Lectures for more information (at http://www.feynmanlectures.info/FLP_Original_Course_Notes/, Physics 2, Summary S-28).

"Doc" Jim Woosley

This whole matter is far beyond my level of competence in physics, of course. I have always been a generalist meaning I know less and less about more and more until eventually at the limit I know nothing at all about everything.  Still, I remain skeptical of modern physics, which seems to postulate that some great portion of the Universe is composed of stuff we can’t see and can’t detect but we infer from theories so complex that few understand them. Then we find that we live in a nearly unique corner of that universe that doesn’t have so much of the dark stuff.

I have the horrid suspicion that much of this comes from accepting a relativity principle that isn’t true; that is, there is something like an aether in which light waves, and it has something to do with gravitational fields, which do in fact pervade the universe – and light travels at different velocities in those gravitational fields because the aether has different densities depending on how far away they are from big gravitational field sources.. But that’s my cocktail party theory and I certainly won’t try to argue it. I was recently exposed to two PhD particle physicists, both of whom were convinced of relativity but knew less about it in general terms than I do, because it doesn’t impact on what they work on. Me, I am still trying to figure out why my watch slows down if you move toward me, and yes, I am being frivolous. On the other hand I don’t know if clocks in Denver keep different time when a burst of mesons heads toward the city at near light speeds. Of course if Denver isn’t moving and those mesons are it’s easier to comprehend why Denver doesn’t change so much.  But that’s relativity for you.

And a remarkable achievement:

Shadow of an Atom!

Jerry,

Another great feat of legerdemain! A team led by Dave Kielpinski at Griffith University in Australia images an atom’s shadow

<http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2012-07/first-time-snapshot-single-atoms-shadow?cmp=tw>

Regards, Charles Adams, Bellevue, NE

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: One small step for SSTO

Dr Pournelle

Masten Xaero climbs 444 meters and lands. <http://masten-space.com/2012/07/03/xaero-444-for-the-4th/>

(The sound is piercing. I muted my speakers when the Xaero returned to land. YMMV.)

Live long and prosper

h lynn keith

 

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Ghost Cities

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

You asked about the phenomenon of ghost cities. I believe these articles do a good job of explaining the phenomenon.

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/06/why-chinas-ghost-towns-matter-for-our-economy/240629/

http://grist.org/cities/2011-03-31-chinas-ghost-cities-and-the-biggest-property-bubble-of-all/

Three paragraphs sum it up, I think:

"Back in 2009, filmmakers Sam Green and Carrie Lozano made a beautiful short film about the New South China Mall called “Utopia: Part 3 <http://www.pbs.org/pov/utopia/> .” It tells the story behind the mall’s construction: a local businessman who had gotten fabulously rich in the new Chinese market economy wanted to make his mark in the world by building something fantastic. No matter that the site, which was farmland, had no good access – by road or rail or any other conveyance.

Once the mall got built, it was “too big to fail,” and has been propped up by government-backed investors, a chilling example of useless infrastructure and wasted resources.

And yet around the globe, governments and business interests continue to build projects like these (see this report <http://www.urbanindy.com/2011/03/30/pre-conflict-an-american-in-libya/> from pre-conflict Libya, for instance). They should look more closely at the Chinese example — beyond the GDP numbers to the bricks-and-mortar reality. Because when economic growth is pursued for its own sake, without regard to the needs and capabilities of the humans inside that economy, it is only a matter of time before the bubble will burst"

So there you have it. Not that we should take any lessons from this with respect to ‘stimulus’ projects. Didn’t I hear Paul Krugman or Friedman say how much he admired China? Why, why, why do people who admire such catastrophes never actually want to *move* there?

Respectfully,

Brian P.

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Chinese Ghost Cities

They are failed real-estate ventures. In China, a person with a lot of guanxi (pull, influence, something like that) can get a bank loan, hire thugs to expropriate farmers (sometimes paying them nominal amounts so it looks legal), then build real-estate that, from the air, appears to be complete. Often they are unfinished shells. It is customary when buying chinese real-estate to have to install major appliances (like heaters), refinish interior walls, etc. If anything fails during this process: i.e. the developer becomes over-extended, a farmer happens to have -more- guanxi, the bank calls in a loan (banks are arms of the government, remember, so often a "frienclly" loan has no repayment schedule), or a government official needs an "example." Then the development fails, and becomes a ghost.

Ray Van De Walker

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Actually I put a link and comments on this in View, but for the record

Climate was HOTTER in Roman, medieval times than now,

Jerry

Climate was HOTTER in Roman, medieval times than now, according to a new study:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/07/10/global_warming_undermined_by_study_of_climate_change/print.html

“A new study measuring temperatures over the past two millennia has concluded that in fact the temperatures seen in the last decade are far from being the hottest in history. A large team of scientists making a comprehensive study of data from tree rings say that in fact global temperatures have been on a falling trend for the past 2,000 years and they have often been noticeably higher than they are today – despite the absence of any significant amounts of human-released carbon dioxide in the atmosphere back then.

"We found that previous estimates of historical temperatures during the Roman era and the Middle Ages were too low," says Professor-Doktor Jan Esper of the Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, one of the scientists leading the study. "Such findings are also significant with regard to climate policy." They certainly are, as it is a central plank of climate policy worldwide that the current temperatures are the highest ever seen for many millennia, and that this results from rising levels of atmospheric CO2 emitted by human activities such as industry, transport etc. If it is the case that actually the climate has often been warmer without any significant CO2 emissions having taken place – suggesting that CO2 emissions simply aren’t that important – the case for huge efforts to cut those emissions largely disappears.”

And more, of course.

Ed

We have known all this since 7th grade, but apparently many continue to forget such things. What is important about CO2 is that those with the right lobbyists get rich, and the regulatory environment keeps upstart startup companies from competing with big important corporations. Capitalists will always conspire with government to restrict entry into their fields of endeavor. Always.

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This was part of a set of charts sent. Note that the last days of the Roman Republic brought in subsidized and finally free grain. Weep.

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How the surge was squandered

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

It’s pretty rare that ABC News and the Washington Post take President Obama to task, so I think it wise to point it out when they do.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/war-zones/little-america-excerpt-obamas-troop-increase-for-afghan-war-was-misdirected/2012/06/22/gJQAYHrAvV_story.html

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/07/how-obama-squandered-the-surge/

There’s a new book which demonstrates why the Afghan surge was a failure while the Iraqi surge was a success. To be blunt, if you send 40,000 troops to the middle of nowhere, as opposed to the location where there’s actually an insurgency, you achieve nothing. Bedford Forrest’s dictum to "hit ’em where they ain’t" isn’t applied this way.

I’m reading through the referenced book on Kindle now, so I haven’t got to the point mentioned in the interview where infighting in both the administration and the Pentagon paralyzed the effort and put it at permanent cross purposes. We were so busy fighting each other we forgot about the actual enemy in the field.

For the Pentagon, I’ll wager the solution is to simply give all those responsible a rifle and put them in Kandahar until they have a better sense of priorities. Dealing with the administration is less simple, but I suspect the phrase "ballot box" figures prominently.

The book is worth it for the first few chapters alone, which discuss American adventures in modernizing Afghan agriculture in the 1950s and 1960s, and how a great deal of money and effort was spent to achieve nothing. The Afghan farmers weren’t interested in changing, you see.

Respectfully,

Brian P.

We won in Afghanistan within 90 days of going in. Then we decided to stay to remake the place. Alexander the Great caught on much quicker, as have all the rest who have ‘conquered’ Afghanistan over the centuries.

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

If I may crave your indulgence but a bit longer. I’ve already linked to the book under discussion earlier

http://www.amazon.com/Little-America-The-Within-Afghanistan/dp/0307957144/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1341935286&sr=8-1&keywords=little+america

but I’m reading through this book on Kindle and I believe it merits further comment. It is *extremely* enlightening albeit depressing, especially when discussing reconstruction of Afghanistan. A better title might be "Good Intentions".

Some case examples:

1) Opium is Afghanistan’s principal crop and a major source of Taliban income. So we gave away wheat seeds to Opium farmers so they would grow wheat instead.

Know what happened? The farmers took the free seeds, then turned around and sold them, using the money to buy fertilizer for their opium fields. You have any idea how much more opium sells for than wheat? You think they’re going to put that low-profit junk in their fields? Not hardly.

2) Tried to open a cotton farm, because cotton DOES offer a better profit margin than opium and is legal besides. The US government stepped on it. Why? Because that would mean competition with American domestic cotton. That’s a no-no! So the cotton effort was stillborn.

3) Tried to grow saffron, which is also a high-profit crop. It couldn’t be exported. Why? Because the fecal content in the saffron was a thousand times higher than in Saffron from Iran next door. I leave it to your imagination to guess why that would be so, but the word "hygiene" should figure prominently.

4) Tried, at the last, to burn down opium fields. Well, it turns out that opium is only A source of Taliban money. It is not THE source of Taliban money. They also get a heap of money from our "allies" in the Gulf and Pakistan. We didn’t hurt them much, but we did utterly beggar the small farmers who had put their livelihoods into those fields and lost it all. They joined up with the Taliban, who offered them wages with which to recoup their losses and feed their families. And they had no reason to love the US or the Afghan government anyway, given we’d just taken from them everything they had.

*Sigh*. Just remember, we’re from the government and we’re here to help.

Respectfully,

Brian P.

It has never been clear to me what we want from Afghanistan. They make nothing we want to buy, and what they grow we are forbidden to buy; and they are far from us and expensive to occupy. Competent empire looks for more lucrative targets of conquest.

I am not sure why we want the Mayor of Kabul to be the Master of Afghanistan. I never have been. Iraq had oil. Not that we got any of it, but it was at least there.

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Subject: Historic bridges of Yosemite Valley under siege

These guys are not going to be happy unless they tear down anything man made, I guess

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2012/07/07/historic-bridges-yosemite-valley-under-siege/?test=latestnews

Tracy

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Babies With Pet Dogs Or Cats Have Fewer Respiratory Tract Infections –

Providing additional support to the Pournelle ‘ It takes a dog to raise a village” theory.

Babies who are in close contact with dogs or cats during their first twelve months of life were found to enjoy better health and were less likely to suffer from respiratory infections, compared to those without any pets in the house or no close contact with these animals, researchers from the Kuopio University Hospital, Kuopio, Finland, reported in the journal Pediatrics…………The protective effect on infants from having a pet cat was also detected, but it was not as strong as with dogs. (LOL, edit.)…… http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/247591.php

John from Waterford

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Subj: Drones and GPS Spoofing

http://spectrum.ieee.org/riskfactor/aerospace/aviation/-drones-and-gps-spoofing-redux

>>[R]esearchers led by Professor Todd Humphreys of the University of Texas at Austin Radionavigation Laboratory successfully demonstrated that a drone with an unencrypted GPS system could be taken over by a person wielding a $1,000 GPS spoofing device (pdf). Recently, … [Bob Charette, the editor of IEEE Spectrum magazine’s Risk Factor blog, spoke] with Professor Humphreys about GPS spoofing and its implications not only on UAVs, but other systems like financial systems (pdf) that use GPS for tasks such as data time stamping.<<

Rod Montgomery==monty@starfief.com

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Dr. Pournelle

"Dimmocrats and mainstream Republicans differ only slightly on the subject of Big Government. Both are willing to cut your throat, but the dimmocrats want it to be done by public employees and the country club Republican set want it to be done by private contractors." <http://mostlycajun.com/wordpress/?p=18297>

Live long and prosper

h lynn keith

Despair is a sin. And the country club Republicans can sometimes be tamed.

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Jerry,

Subj: Forbes: Five lessons for business startups — from Buffy the Vampire Slayer

http://www.forbes.com/sites/calebmelby/2012/06/24/5-lessons-for-start-ups-from-buffy-the-vampire-slayer/

Now that is downright amusing. Thanks.

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Subject: How do you say "libertad económica" in English?

Some good comparisons of differences in the economy between Europe and the U.S.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2012/07/america-and-spain?fsrc=nlw|newe|7-11-2012|2752294|59501144|NA

Tracy

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airforce spying on Americans:

<.>

Holloman sits on almost 60,000 acres of desert badlands, near jagged hills that are frosted with snow for several months of the year — a perfect training ground for pilots who will fly Predators and Reapers over the similarly hostile terrain of Afghanistan. When I visited the base earlier this year with a small group of reporters, we were taken into a command post where a large flat-screen television was broadcasting a video feed from a drone flying overhead. It took a few seconds to figure out exactly what we were looking at. A white S.U.V. traveling along a highway adjacent to the base came into the cross hairs in the center of the screen and was tracked as it headed south along the desert road. When the S.U.V. drove out of the picture, the drone began following another car.

“Wait, you guys practice tracking enemies by using civilian cars?” a reporter asked. One Air Force officer responded that this was only a training mission, and then the group was quickly hustled out of the room.

</>

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/08/magazine/the-drone-zone.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

I remarked that I was hardly surprised.

 

Of course not; that doesn’t mean that we should not act astonished for public consumption and then display outrage.

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

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Ransom: Just Say No!

http://finance.townhall.com/columnists/johnransom/2012/07/07/economy_saying_no_to_second_obama_term/page/full/

<snip>

And despite Obama’s claims, nothing in Dodd-Frank actually makes illegal any of the unethical or damaging behavior, taken either in Washington or Wall Street, which created the financial mess caused by the easy availability of credit for real estate purchases. Nor does Dodd-Frank make our banking system safer as Democrats claim.

Actually quite the contrary.

As the bankruptcy under Democrat uber-genius Jon Corzine at MF Global shows, despite repeated attempts at reform through Dodd-Frank and Sarbannes-Oxley, thieves will always do what thieves will do

And while the left likes to blame Wall Street for the problems and the right likes to blame Washington, both sides were not only culpable, but in cahoots.

They still are.

If we are going to make real progress on actual reform, we have to break up the federal regulatory cabal, not codify it through ineffectual and dangerous legislation that makes no attempt to actually reform anything, but rather just gives stealing the soft name of lobbying.

In fact, Dodd-Frank will make our national banking system even more dangerous and much more likely to fail in the future no matter how much bragging Obama does about it.

And the next time we have a systemic crisis in banking in the US is the last time we will have a systemic crisis in banking.

The stakes are that grave. <Snip>

The stakes are indeed high. Repeal of Dodd-Frank and Sarbanes-Oxley is nearly as important as repeal of ObamaCare. The Republican leadership needs to be reminded of this, early and often. I know that Newt was aware of the importance of these measures. I am not privy to the beliefs of the others.

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George Leopold ee times

6/6/2012 5:42 PM EDT

WASHINGTON — As if another example were needed, here’s the latest illustration of why Washington is dysfunctional.

There was great rejoicing last week over the highly successful commercial space mission to the International Space Station <http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4374186/Slideshow–Pinpoint-splashdown-ends-first-visit-to-space-station> . The successful docking of a cargo ship designed and launched by Space Exploration Technologies, or SpaceX, was a great advance in terms of maintaining U.S. access to low-Earth orbit. It was a bit of good news amid the steady stream of bad economic news and man’s inhumanity toward his fellow man and women.

Now, a pissing match has erupted over who should get the political credit for the success of the SpaceX mission.

The commercial cargo and crew program under which SpaceX and other competitors operate was created, according to the chairman of the House Science Committee’s space panel, by the Bush administration in 2005. Congress authorized funding for the program, and SpaceX received its contract the following year.

Good for the Bush administration, which did not fund a successor to the space shuttle, and the Congress. Point for them.

At a hearing on Wednesday (June 6), space panel chairman Steven Palazzo, attacked the Obama administration for taking credit last week for the success of the SpaceX mission. Palazzo charged that John Holden, the White House science advisor, made “misleading” statements in claiming credit for the successful test flight.

We’ve got some news for the petty politicians: The credit for the success of the SpaceX first test flight goes to the engineers, designers, technicians, code jockeys, metal benders and managers at SpaceX along with NASA program administrators. If not for the months of testing and retesting, weeks of painstaking validation of the software code needed for spacecraft navigation and communications with the space station, this test flight would not have achieved all of its goals.

SpaceX and its visionary founder Elon Musk did what they set out to do. The politicians who control NASA’s budget and profess support for commercial space should drop the partisan crap and provide the funding necessary to build on the success of the first commercial flight to the space station.

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Coming up for air; California chases out X Corp; neat review of Hammer; Climate Change

View 732 Wednesday, July 11, 2012

Apologies for being so long without saying something. Combination of hot weather here, and a myriad of distractions, all fairly minor but all time consuming – and, alas, of thinking I had put up something I hadn’t.

I set this following up to be published Monday afternoon, got distracted, and thought I had done it when I hadn’t. Back in the days when I did all this in Front Page and posted things directly from it it was a lot easier. Ah well.

And we had what I thought was a flap about Amazon, but that turned out to be my own fault, and there was no problem.

I have a lot of mail on several subjects, and I am selecting out the best to present arguments.

Thanks to all those kind enough to worry about me.

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I do not normally post press releases, but this one is significant:

XCOR Aerospace and Midland Development Corporation Announce Establishment of XCOR’s New Commercial Spaceflight R&D Headquarters

<http://ih.constantcontact.com/fs046/1102502633005/img/80.jpg>

XCOR Chief Test Pilot Richard Searfoss shows Texas Governor Rick Perry a full sized Lynx model unveiled during a ceremony held at the Midland

International Airport, where XCOR will open a new R&D headquarters.

Midland, Texas, July 9, 2012 – The Midland Development Corporation (MDC) and XCOR Aerospace jointly announced today the establishment of XCOR’s new Commercial Space Research and Development Center Headquarters that will be created over the next eighteen (18) months. XCOR manufactures reusable rocket engines for major aerospace prime contractors and is the designer, manufacturer and operator of the Lynx, a winged fully reusable, high performance suborbital space vehicle that is designed to safely carry two persons or scientific experiments to the edge of space and back up to four times per day.

"This is a great day for Midland and a huge step forward for the State of Texas. Visionary companies, like XCOR, continue to choose Texas because they know that innovation is fueled by freedom," Gov. Perry said. "Whether on the cutting edge of biotech, communications, commerce or privatized efforts to serve the needs of the next generation of space explorers, you can find Texas at the forefront of the movement."

XCOR will be establishing their new R&D center on the flight line at Midland International Airport (MAF) in a newly renovated 60,000-square-foot hangar, which will include office space and a test facility. The renovation is expected to commence in early 2013, and be completed by the late autumn.

"XCOR will be upgrading an existing hangar at Midland International Airport," stated Marv Esterly, director of airports at MAF. "This new R&D facility has the potential to open the door to even more economic development at our airport and for our community."

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XCOR will be expanding into a 60,000 sq ft hangar, pictured here, at the Midland Intenational Airport in Midland, TX.

"We are pleased to be establishing our R&D Center in Midland, Texas, where the weather, surrounding landscape, the airport, and the local & state government environment are ideally situated for the future growth and the ultimate realization of a fully reusable orbital system," said Andrew Nelson, chief operating officer of XCOR Aerospace. "With future suborbital operational sites on the East and West Coasts of the United States and around the world, plus a manufacturing and test facility geographically separate from our R&D facility, Midland will truly be at the heart of XCOR’s innovation engine."

"The decision to establish XCOR’s Research and Development Center Headquarters in Midland came after intense competition from other locations," stated Pam Welch, executive director of MDC, "once the technical and operational needs of XCOR were met, the final factors influencing the decision to locate R&D to Midland included the friendly business climate, a predictable regulatory environment, and the State of Texas tort reform initiatives. These factors allowed XCOR to see a long term future happening in Midland."

Laura Roman, MDC chairman, stated "Today we celebrate the economic diversity that XCOR’s Research and Development Center Headquarters will bring to Midland along with the $12,000,000 of new payroll and capital investment over the next five years to our community with an estimated average annual wage of over $60,000 per job."

In parallel with the XCOR facility renovation, the City of Midland is applying to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for a Commercial Space Launch Site designation for MAF, an estimated 12 to 18 months process. Upon completion of the licensing process and the hangar renovation, the XCOR presence will begin to ramp up.

The FAA spaceport designation will also be an important economic development tool because of the potential growth in the commercial space sector as NASA relies more on commercial service providers for launch capability and the space tourism market evolves. Marv Esterly, noted, "When our application is approved, the MAF will be the first "Primary Commercial Service Airport" to be granted this designation, and the combination of the two makes Midland attractive to other commercial space companies."

# # #

XCOR Aerospace is in the business of developing and producing safe, reliable and reusable rocket powered vehicles, propulsion systems, advanced non-flammable composites and other enabling technologies. XCOR is working with aerospace prime contractors and government customers on major propulsion systems, and concurrently building the Lynx, a piloted, two-seat, fully reusable, liquid rocket powered suborbital vehicle that takes off and lands horizontally and serves research & scientific missions and private spaceflight. The Lynx production models (designated Lynx Mark II) are designed to be robust, multi-mission commercial vehicles capable of flying to 100+ km in altitude up to four times per day and are being offered on a wet lease basis. www.xcor.com.

The Midland Development Corporation (MDC) promotes business expansion in the greater Midland, Texas area by building a strong and diversified economy through job creation and capital investment. The Midland Development Corporation has the ability to structure incentive packages to qualified new and existing employers who create and retain jobs for the community.

Midland International Airport (MAF) is an historic aviation center and home to many unique aviation and aerospace assets. The Pliska Aeroplane, the first aircraft built and flown in Texas was a 1911 vintage aircraft constructed by local blacksmith John Pliska and auto mechanic Gray Coggin. They modeled the aircraft after the Wright Flyer II owned by Robert G Fowler, who was passing through Midland. The original aircraft now hangs in the MAF main terminal. MAF was also the site of the US Army Air Corps Bombardier School during WWII, where numerous pilots were trained on the use of the famous Norden bombsight on the remote plains and reaches of West Texas. In the 1960’s and 1970’s MAF served as the R&D and flight test center for the first all composite aircraft built and licensed in the United States, the Windecker Eagle. And MAF is the current home to the Commemorative Air Force, the premier historic aircraft restoration and flying museum for military aircraft.

The Midland International Airport is ranked ninth in Texas for primary commercial service airports. Owned and operated by the City of Midland, the airport has over twenty daily departures with non-stop service to DFW, Dallas Love Field, Houston Intercontinental, Houston Hobby, Las Vegas and Denver. Currently, the airport is served by Southwest, American Eagle and United Express Airlines."

Media Contacts:

Sean Wilson

Griffin Communications Group

On behalf of Midland Development Corporation

sean@griffincg.com

California’s anti-business environment takes its toll on the future. Mojave was once a prime candidate for a space industry, but this may change things.

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And if you have not seen this delightful review of Lucifer’s Hammer, recommend it to anyone you know who hasn’t bought the book recently. http://guerillabookworm.com/

Re. Lucifer’s Hammer Review

Dr. Pournelle,

I’d suggest using the permalink to the particular review, <http://guerillabookworm.com/?p=979>, rather than the link to the Guerrilla Bookworm home page that you put on <https://www.jerrypournelle.com/chaosmanor/?p=8442>.

And that reminds me: it’s time to reread Lucifer’s Hammer; it’s been so long since last I read the book that I’m not recognizing a scene reference.

—Joel

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For another interesting literary review, see http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/06/the-author-of-the-civil-war/ on the role of Sir Walter Scott on attitudes toward war. I will have to admit being influenced by Scott and by Robert Louis Stevenson at an early age. The Capleville school library had some of Stevenson’s novels (in addition to Treasure Island which we read in 7th Grade as an assignment) and also several of Scott’s Waverly novels (Quentin Durward for one, and of course Ivanhoe). It also has some Jack London who used language I wasn’t used to hearing…

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And I have this on Climate Change

 

Tree ring studies show cooling 

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

Just in case you’ve not yet seen this:

> Tree-rings prove climate was WARMER in Roman and Medieval times than

> it is now – and world has been cooling for 2,000 years.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2171973/Tree-ring-study-proves-climate-WARMER-Roman-Medieval-times-modern-industrial-age.html

Of course this is the Daily Mail, but then my usual view of that paper’s biases would lead me to expect to see them denouncing Deniers. The graph is interesting.

Of course we have all of us known from childhood that it was warmer in Viking times – Medieval times if you like – than it is now. We all were taught about Leif the Lucky and the Greenland colonies, and about Vinland and the skraelings and wine grapes in Nova Scotia; and if we cared to look further at history between 800 to about 1300 AD we find that everyone recorded good weather, long growing seasons, earlier springs and later winters. This seems universal in the Northern hemisphere from Iceland to the Orient, in China and Japan, and so far as we can tell, people thrived in the Southern hemisphere also, they just didn’t keep written records that survived. One of the charges leveled against the ‘hockey stick’ model makers is that they sought to erase the Medieval Warm from human records. 

We don’t have so much on the Roman Warm period but we can infer some of it from published histories, length of time it took olive trees to mature, and such like. We know that crops failed more often and land production fell during the wandering period, but that could be decivilization rather than climate. 

I have seen very little evidence showing that the Earth has not been warmer in historical times than it is now.  We also know that it has been considerably colder than it is now following the last cooling that began in the first half of the 14th Century.

Any model that seeks to predict future climates must, I would think, take account of the Roman and Medieval Warm periods and since none of the current very expensive models of climactic doom can account for them (other than to wish they would go away) I have never had much confidence in these many parameter art forms.

We have also, all of us, known since childhood that Earth went through really significant Ice Ages, and that we are supposedly in an Interglacial Period. That’s one reason why there was so much concern back not all that many years ago (mid 1970’s) when there was talk of a Genesis Strategy and the Coming Ice Age.

Stephen Schneider, in those days  said the climate future was unpredictable, not definitely Ice, but since climate variation usually means food production uncertainties we ought, as Joseph advised Pharaoh, to put away surpluses during fat years to guard against coming families. That’s still not terrible advice. I can think of a number of catastrophes that might make us wish we had more than a few days’ food stored up and ready to distribute. Come to that, given what we’re spending on measures to affect climate when we don’t in fact know which way things are going, we probably could have full granaries from these fat years just in case there are lean years.  But that wouldn’t enrich the Global Warming True Believers with grants and study subsidies, and there’s a lot of money to be made out of Cap and Trade if you’re the speculator rather than producer kind.  Pardon my bitterness.

I don’t suppose this latest study will convince many who aren’t already Deniers; after all, those who paid attention to world history in grade school already pretty well know all this; but then modern attention span isn’t very long, so who knows?

Incidentally the Great Global Warming Hysteria suggests the inadvisability of rule by bureaucratic meritocracy as well as the undesirability of rule by plebiscitary democracy; but then Franklin, who speculated on the cause of Ice Ages, knew that as did most of the other Framers.

 

If you lay a straight edge along the solid line on that curve so that you just touch the four highest peaks including the last one, you will see a trend that is not what the Global Warming people believe in. Of course that depends on the quality of the raw data, but then we’ve all been saying that all along.  If I had to bet whether 2099 would be warmer or colder than 2015 I think I would take “about the same” were that offered as a choice.  But if I were asked do I prefer warmer or colder I’d emphatically choose warmer even though I am sweltering a an office without air conditioning just at the moment. 

 

==

It’s not just the Daily Mail

Jerry:

I admit The Daily Mail can make it difficult to separate good science from reports of Tom Cruise’s ability to teleport.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2171741/Tom-Cruise-believed-telekinetic-telepathic-powers-according-Scientologists.html

But the Daily Mail’s report of the tree ring study you mentioned on July 11 is reported more reliably at http://www.uni-mainz.de/eng/15491.php

and

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1589.html

A good source for following climate reports is

http://www.climatedepot.com/

Best regards,

–Harry M.

 

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