View 736 Wednesday, August 08, 2012

On the road, with dialup. All’s well at home although Sable wonders where we went and it’s very hot in Los Angeles. She’s in good hands with our friends who house sit for us when we’re away.

I’m trying to get back to speed. Just at the moment I am at the end of a dialup account, which makes that rather difficult, but the good news is that I feel better and seem to have a bit more energy. I think I picked up some kind of summer slump ailment which I am getting over.

The Obama camp is now demanding Romney’s tax returns, or anything else they can find so they can look for something to denounce Romney for. They can’t believe that he doesn’t have a few mistresses, or some stolen money,k or unpaid taxes, or perhaps he misstated one of his grades and it won’t match his transcript or maybe he stole the cheese from a farmer’s rat trap, or something anything really.

One obvious answer to this would be to ask to see some of Mr. Obama’s documents, such as his grade transcripts or his Harvard application, or the essay that got him promoted to President of the Harvard Law Review (even though the Review never published it) or his Columbia records or even attendance records or some sign that he was actually there, The temptation to make those demands must be high in the Obama camp. So far they aren’t doing it.

Mr. Romney is going to insist that Mr. Obama run on his record. Mr. Obama’s supporters say this is a dirty trick. They don’t have much of a record to run on, so they have to attack. You can only get so much mileage out of giving a kill order after denying it several times, And it’s hard to brag about the Proscription List of American citizens to be killed on sight. Who’s on it? Do they deserve to be on it? Who is competent to decide who should be on a proscription list? it is not really a constitutionally defined office. As Cicero told the soldier who was to execute him without trial, “There is nothing proper about what you are about to do, young man.”  So there is a limit to what you can claim for your kill record, and things go downhill from there. Tougher to run on the progress made in Iraq in the last three years, or in Afghanistan,  But turning to the economy is even harder if you want a record to run on. There has been plenty of stimulus but not much response, and Government investments haven’t done much for infrastructure and haven’t produced much sustainable energy. Policy wonks wonk away but the results are thin on the ground. So try to provoke Romney into doing something outrageous like – well, like treat questions directed to him as a man who actually ran Olympic Games. Ask if he thought Britain was ready, and getting the truthful response that yes, pretty well, but you know there are always glitches and things you wish you had thought of and now we can stop listening and pounce! He’s blackguarding our friends.

But so far Romney hasn’t played into their hand.

It’s pretty clear that the Romney strategy now is to avoid mucking things up, and not to respond to most of the Obama camp’s increasingly shrill charges, some of which begin to sound like ravings. Of course the notion is to let a thousand skunk cabbages bloom, and those which become really foul can be disowned. Meanwhile, the steady beat will discourage voters and many of those who have decided they don’t want to vote for Mr. Obama may call a pox on both houses and stay home. The unions continue to get out the vote and the absentee ballots and whatever boxes of votes that can be discovered the day after election day – or a week after if needed – and this will result in the reelection.

It’s possible. Of course it works only if the voters let it. They figure that people who will be so disgusted that they’ll stay home were lost to Obama to begin with. That’s a desperation strategy and it is contemptuous of the American People.

People in this country generally get about the government they deserve: those who will neither govern themselves nor be involved in supervising those they choose to govern for them are always astonished when the inevitable happens to them. If that’s what they wanted, they should have picked a good hereditary aristocracy. Actually that is close to what we are doing now, with unionized public service bureaus with very good pay. The career of policeman begins to sound quite good. Fireman may be even better. Lifetime pay and health care, and a good chance to get at least one of your kids into it. And those are the elites, who have to, and mostly do, actually perform well in difficult jobs. But police and fire are not exempt from Pournelle’s Iron Law of Bureaucracy, and certainly city and county cubicle workers aren’t. India knows a very great deal about that sort of thing with the “Permit Raj” years (which are still very much in power in some states in India even now).

But that’s enough gloom for the evening. I have some confidence in the American people: the political campaign has reached the stomach turning point, but we’ll see it through. And I can’t wait for November.

View 736 Tuesday, August 07, 2012

Thanks to all who have remembered that it’s my birthday, and more thanks to those who used this as an occasion to subscribe or renew.

I used to go to SIGGRAPH fairly regularly and I had sort of planned to get down there this afternoon, but I kept putting things off, and this morning I had an appointment with the dermatologist. I came back with sticking plaster all over my face, and not a lot of energy. Nothing serious, but biopsies on my nose and cheek and while he was in there on my cheek he chopped out whatever was there. The result didn’t leave me with much energy, and tomorrow we have other stuff we have to do. It’s also over 97 degrees outside my back door, and I’m really not up to driving downtown, so I guess I’ll miss SIGGRAPH. Peter Glaskowsky and my son Alex will both be down there, and it would be a good thing to go have dinner with them and find out what all’s going on, but I’m just not up to it. I’ll have to find out another time.

The bill is in for the Occupy Los Angeles demonstration, and it’s about $5 million. The Mayor, meanwhile, is making speeches about how we have to be smarter in city operations and save money, but I don’t think he is counting on this as a good example of that .Even so, I expect we got off easy compared to some cities.

That got me thinking about demonstrations and causes. It’s hard to know precisely what Occupy Los Angeles wanted – they never did get agreement on any statement of demands – but as near as I can tell the major concern of those who chose to speak to reporters was over income inequality. It may be that income inequality is something to be concerned about, but the Occupy Los Angeles people – dubbed “The Occupoopers” by many Los Angeles commentators – did not get many people thinking about that issue.

Apologies. I intended at least one essay today, but the day was devoured by small things. It’s now late, and there’s a lot to do tomorrow. I work bestr when I have routines, and they have all been disrupted.

My congratulations to JPL and the Curiosity crew. We need to know more about Mars. That doesn’t change my mind: the next step in the conquest of space is a permanent base on the Moon, and more experience in exploiting space resources. Of course compared to Mars the Moon seems fairly dull, but getting to Mars will be a lot simpler when we have a Moon Base and a place where we can test NERVA and other nuclear propulsion systems in vacuum with a machine shop and materials handy. Hohmann orbits are not the key to the planets. We need Heinlein’s ‘torchships”, but they turn out to be a great deal more difficult than we believed in that golden age. On the other hand, we have tested NERVA and got exhaust velocities double theoretical maxima of chemical rockets. NERVA and a Moon Base can make possible the kind of asteroid commerce I describe in Birth of Fire, High Justice, Exile and Glory, and other works I did in the 1980’s. I have seen nothing to make those stories obsolete, and the only failures we have had are those of nerve.

We’re still going. It may take longer than I expected, and the language of space doesn’t have to be English. But we’ll go. To the Moon, the asteroids, that planets, and then we’ll learn how to go further. And it’s time for bed.

Once again, my thanks to all those who wished me a happy birthday, and more thanks to those who subscribed or renewed. I’ll be back in action by the end of the week. I even managed several hundred new words on Janissaries yesterday. I’m a year older, but my head is still working, Perhaps a bit more slowly, but it’s still there.

‘At 5:02 p.m., they reset my Twitter password. At 5:00 they used iCloud’s “Find My” tool to remotely wipe my iPhone. At 5:01 they remotely wiped my iPad. At 5:05 they remotely wiped my MacBook. Around this same time, they deleted my Google account.’

<http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2012/08/apple-amazon-mat-honan-hacking/all/>

Roland Dobbins

Great Heavens!

View 736 Sunday, August 05, 2012

Something today reminded me:

The Servant When He Reigneth

"For three things the earth is disquieted, and for four which it cannot bear. For a servant when he reigneth, and a fool when he is filled with meat; for an odious woman when she is married, and an handmaid that is heir to her mistress." — PROV. XXX. 21-22-23.

Three things make earth unquiet
And four she cannot brook
The godly Agur counted them
And put them in a book —
Those Four Tremendous Curses
With which mankind is cursed;
But a Servant when He Reigneth
Old Agur entered first.
An Handmaid that is Mistress
We need not call upon.
A Fool when he is full of Meat
Will fall asleep anon.
An Odious Woman Married
May bear a babe and mend;
But a Servant when He Reigneth
Is Confusion to the end.

His feet are swift to tumult,
His hands are slow to toil,
His ears are deaf to reason,
His lips are loud in broil.
He knows no use for power
Except to show his might.
He gives no heed to judgment
Unless it prove him right.

Because he served a master
Before his Kingship came,
And hid in all disaster
Behind his master’s name,
So, when his Folly opens
The unnecessary hells,
A Servant when He Reigneth
Throws the blame on some one else.

His vows are lightly spoken,
His faith is hard to bind,
His trust is easy broken,
He fears his fellow-kind.
The nearest mob will move him
To break the pledge he gave —
Oh, a Servant when he Reigneth
Is more than ever slave!

Rudyard Kipling

Of course no one says such things now. Perhaps we have evidence that they are not true as we once thought? Or perhaps they used to be true but are no longer?

I hold no real brief for the Mamalukes – the Military officers who formerly ruled Egypt – but I am not at all certain that rule by those who have the means to sieze and hold the public square in Cairo is preferable, and I am fairly certain that the rule of the Muslim Brotherhood is not a step towards progress. Mr. Romney has said that a major difference between Palestinians and Israelis is cultural. Martin Peretz, former owner of New Republic, said recently “Mitt Romney was said to have made an enormous faux pas when he said that,” but “I have no great anticipations in the Morsi government because it seems to me the Muslim Brotherhood’s program in its essentials will not alter the social rules of Arab societies. That is, if you expect that in two years someone will be able to say that what Romney said is not true, you will be bitterly disappointed.”

Today I heard a radio bulletin that there have been heavy casualties in the border area where Gaza, Israel, and Egypt come together. This can hardly be a surprise.

The US abandoned Miubarek, a long time ally and keeper of the peace. I expect most of my readers will be too young to remember the seemingly endless wars of 1948, 1956, 1967, 1969, 1973, as well as hundreds of incidents. Then in 1979 Egypt recognized Israel and made peace. It was an uneasy peace, and committed the US to pay heavy tribute to help preserve it, but it was a form of peace. The Muslim Brotherhood apparently does not recognize the right of Israel to exist.

Democracy in Egypt cannot easily be defined. It is not clear what will come in Tunisia. It is less clear what will be the future of Libya. Syria is in turmoil but we don’t know much about the rebel factions.

A source has told me that Harry Reid is a pederast. Of course sources have told me that Newt Gingrich is an alien, that President Obama was not born in the United States, that a secret unit at Wright Patterson Air Force Base has a secret vault containing wreckage and bodies from crashed alien spacecraft – apparently multiples!. Harry Reid says that sources have told him that Mitt Romney has not paid his taxed in ten years. Sources have told me that Roosevelt deliberately provoked the Japanese into attacking the United States but Roosevelt did not expect it to be at Pearl Harbor. Sources close to Admiral Kimmel have told me that Roosevelt knew precisely when the attack on Pearl Harbor was coming, but did not warn Kimmel. Sources have told me that – but surely the point is made. There is probably no story so improbable that someone will not tell it to someone else as an anonymous source. Of course some improbable stories are true, even if they surface in the silly season during an election campaign.

Facebook stock continued to fall. When it first came out I guessed that the stock would fall until its Price to Earnings ratio fell below the P/E for Apple and Google. P/E is not an exact estimate – particularly since estimating future earnings for any of those companies is not all that accurate a process and involves a good bit of guesswork – but it is an estimate of what “the market” thinks of the growth potential of the company. A very high P/E says that the company has very high growth expectations. The objective evidence for the growth potential of Facebook being that much higher than Apple has always been lacking. I leave conclusions as an exercise for the reader.

Looking at fundamentals, Google clearly had a far more modest valuation than Facebook’s. For the two reported financial quarters that ended June 30, 2004, Google earned $143 million on sales of $1.35 billion. Doubling those numbers for an annualized figure, you get $286 million net income on $2.7 billion in revenue. That would have given Google a price-earnings ratio of 80.5, and a price-to-sales ratio of 8.5.

Those are not lean numbers in and of themselves, but when you consider how fast Google was growing its top line, they were not ludicrously in the stratosphere. Revenue surged 234% in 2003 from 2002, and was still jumping 162% and 125% in the first and second quarters of 2004, respectively. Those are the kinds of growth rates that make an 80 P/E palatable.

Now take a look at Facebook’s last two quarterly income statements. For the final quarter of 2011 and the first one of 2012, Mark Zuckerberg and his crew earned net income of $507 million on revenue of $2.19 billion. Annualized, you get $1.14 billion profit on $4.38 billion in sales. That’s a profit margin of 26%, blowing away Google’s of less than 10% for the first six months of 2004 when it was still private.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/johndobosz/2012/05/17/facebook-is-flat-out-expensive-compared-to-google-at-ipo/

I note that there seem to be few recent analyses of Facebook P/E.

Curiosity has landed on Mars. It appears to have been a nominal mission. Of course it had to be – that is, there’s no such thing as a small failure in an operation like this. It all has to go right or nothing does. Cal Tech/JPL/NASA have brought it off and deserve the praise they will now get. And that’s really all we are going to know until the dust covers come off the cameras, and all the cameras – I believe there are seventeen of them – are in operation. We have every reason to expect all that to work properly. The existence of the blurred black and whites taken through the dust covers shows that the relay linkages are all working, the Deep Space Network is working, the power sources on both Curiosity and the orbiter are in order, and all the pieces are talking to each other.

The mission cost several billion dollars.The photographs and other data will be streaming in for days, weeks, months, probably years. It was worth it. We will learn a lot from that.

Having said that, I will add that I would not make Mars exploration the next high priority space event. I still believe that the next step in space exploration ought to be a permanent Lunar Base. We have to learn to live in space and exploit space resources, and the Moon is the logical next step. It has resources, nowhere near those of Mars, but extensive, and the Moon is comparatively easy to get to. A Moon base can be supported from Earth when we inevitably discover that we forgot to bring along something that we need for life. But that’s another discussion for another time. For now it’s enough to congratulate the Curiosity team, and shout loud huzzahs.

View 735 Friday, August 03, 2012

It’s time for my walk, but I have this:

Government seizure of children

Jerry:

Perhaps I can add to your recently acquired knowledge of Dr. Michael Farris by pointing you to some resources. Briefly, Dr. Farris is one of God’s gifts to American parents in this century.

You frequently comment on the disaster of government schooling, as well you should, for it is leading us into the new dark age you often mention. In response to that disaster, Michael Farris was a pioneer in the home schooling movement.

Dr. Farris was a founder and is now chairman and general counsel of the Home School Legal Defense Association. He is also founding president and now chancellor of Patrick Henry College in Virginia. In his spare time, between writing more than a dozen books on history, constitutional law, and education, he wrote 3 novels.

"Education Week" named Dr. Farris one of the "Top 100 Faces in Education of the 20th Century." The Heritage Foundation awarded him its Salvatori Award for American Citizenship.

As for the Home School Legal Defense Association, anyone doing home schooling should be a member of HSLDA for the protection of their children and their rights as parents. HSLDA stands in the doorway between you and the cops and social workers who come to seize your children and grandchildren.

You can learn more about HSLDA at

http://www.hslda.org/

Dr. Farris’s work as an attorney with HSLDA is described at http://www.hslda.org/about/staff/attorneys/Farris.asp

His position at Patrick Henry College is described at http://www.phc.edu/chancellor_main.php

He introduces a 25-part course on America’s constitution at http://www.constitutionreclaimed.com/

As for the incident in State College that caught your attention, you should not be surprised. It is not surprising that the child was taken by the government. Neither is it surprising that the "mainstream media" ignored the incident. The government works hard every day to seize both physical and mental control of America’s children. The battle has escalated as the United Nations seeks even greater control. For an introduction to that issue, see http://www.parentalrights.org/

Best regards,

–Harry M.

Which is good credential presentation but still doesn’t give me the details of what really happened in the State College, Pennsylvania hospital incident, and I am still puzzled as to why a flock of hungry lawyers have not descended on the town: a mother separated from her child by force, forced to sleep in a parking lot and called in at intervals to breast feed her newborn: it is a story most journalists would kill for, and when I thought I was going to be a lawyer I would have prayed for the opportunity to plead such a case. Against a Penn State institution! At this time!

But I Google in vain. And that is puzzling. We have a clear case of kidnapping, abuse of authority, incompetence, malfeasance – perhaps the Attorney General of the United States is suppressing the investigation?

For those who don’t know what this is about, https://www.jerrypournelle.com/chaosmanor/?p=8831. The story is horrifying. And there seems to be no national reaction to it. And I remain puzzled.

It is time for my morning walk. More on this later. I do not doubt the arrogant incompetence of bureaucrats in some institutions. Fortunately my medical experiences have been with Kaiser and I cannot remember one made unpleasant by the people there (there is nothing pleasant about having brain cancer, but that’s not Kaiser’s fault). But I cannot fathom why a story of this magnitude is ignored by all the free lance reporters in the area. Is there some judicial gag order?

NASA SELECTS SPACEX TO RETURN AMERICANS TO SPACE

Notice the budget, 440 million. NASA eats that much money in meetings every year. I’m sure they are still expending millions on getting the rocket to nowhere going. Never the less, Space X got the contract. Go DD Harriman.

Phil

Begin forwarded message:

From: "SpaceX" <emily@spacex.com>

Subject: NASA SELECTS SPACEX TO RETURN AMERICANS TO SPACE

Date: August 3, 2012 10:40:18 AM PDT

To: <ptharp@vreelin.com>

<https://staticapp.icpsc.com/icp/loadimage.php/mogile/746865/7536220a9d41b0a837a27eb049f22d36/image/png>

NASA SELECTS SPACEX TO RETURN AMERICANS TO SPACE

(Hawthorne, CA) – Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) today won a $440 million contract with NASA to develop the successor to the Space Shuttle and transport American astronauts into space.

“This is a decisive milestone in human spaceflight and sets an exciting course for the next phase of American space exploration,” said SpaceX CEO and Chief Designer Elon Musk. “SpaceX, along with our partners at NASA, will continue to push the boundaries of space technology to develop the safest, most advanced crew vehicle ever flown.”

SpaceX expects to undertake its first manned flight by 2015 – a timetable that capitalizes on the proven success of the company’s Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon spacecraft combination. While Dragon is initially being used to transport cargo to the International Space Station, both Dragon and Falcon 9 were designed from the beginning to carry crew.

Under the Commercial Crew Integrated Capability (CCiCap) initiative’s base period, SpaceX will make the final modifications necessary to prepare Dragon to safely transport astronauts into space. These include:

******Seats for seven astronauts.

******The most technically advanced launch escape system ever developed, with powered abort possibilities from launch pad to orbit. SpaceX will demonstrate that Dragon will be able to escape a launch-pad emergency by firing integrated SuperDraco engines to carry the spacecraft safely to the ocean. SpaceX will also conduct an in-flight abort test that allows Dragon to escape at the moment of maximum aerodynamic drag, again by firing the SuperDraco thrusters to carry the spacecraft a safe distance from the rocket.

******A breakthrough propulsive landing system for gentle ground touchdowns on legs.

******Refinements and rigorous testing of essential aspects of Dragon’s design, including life-support systems and an advanced cockpit design complete with modern human interfaces.

SpaceX will perform stringent safety and mission-assurance analyses to demonstrate that all these systems meet NASA requirements.

With a minimal number of stage separations, all-liquid rocket engines that can be throttled and turned off in an emergency, engine-out capability during ascent, and powered abort capability all the way to orbit, the Falcon 9-Dragon combination will be the safest spacecraft ever developed.

About SpaceX

SpaceX designs, manufactures and launches the world’s most advanced rockets and spacecraft. With a diverse manifest of more than 40 launches to resupply the space station and deliver commercial and government satellites to orbit, SpaceX is the world’s fastest growing launch services provider. In 2012, SpaceX made history when its Dragon spacecraft became the first commercial vehicle to successfully attach to the International Space Station—a feat previously achieved by only four governments. With the retirement of the Space Shuttle, the SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon spacecraft are carrying cargo, and one day will carry astronauts, to and from the space station for NASA. Founded in 2002 by Elon Musk, SpaceX is a private company owned by management and employees, with minority investments from Founders Fund, Draper Fisher Jurvetson, and Valor Equity Partners. The company has more than 1,800 employees in California, Texas, Florida and Washington, DC. For more information, visit www.spacex.com.

<http://click.icptrack.com/icp/relay.php?r=12851859&msgid=211577&act=2CFY&c=746865&destination=http%3A%2F%2Fyoutu.be%2FMZJk4CrxctQ>

PHOTOGRAPHY: http://spacexlaunch.zenfolio.com/p70000514 <http://click.icptrack.com/icp/relay.php?r=12851859&msgid=211577&act=2CFY&c=746865&destination=https%3A%2F%2Fmail.spacex.com%2Fowa%2Fredir.aspx%3FC%3Dc75b9afceae14333a6086d27e0006bbc%26URL%3Dhttp%253a%252f%252fspacexlaunch.zenfolio.com%252fp70000514>

<http://www.spacex.com/assets/img/20120803/image006.jpg> <http://www.spacex.com/assets/img/20120803/image007.jpg>

The Man Who Sold The Moon? $440 million? We live in interesting times.

Docket Listing for Civil Rights Suit in PA Baby Case

Jerry –

This might be of some interest:

http://dockets.justia.com/docket/pennsylvania/pamdce/1:2012cv00442/88588/

It lists details about a suit filed in Pennsylvania Middle District Court, Harrisburg – Plaintiffs Scott and Jodi Ferris, Defendants Milton S. Hershey Medical Center, Caitlin J. Mallis, M.D., Ian M. Paul, M.D., John Doe, M.D., Janet Doe, R.N., John Roe, Jane Roe, Janet Roe, Jack Roe, Officer Rian Bell, Officer Jake Roe, Angelica Lopez-Heagy , Dauphin County Social Services for Children and Youth and Jane Doe, R.N.

Filed March 9 of this year.

Don’t know whether justia.com is a reliable source, but it does offer what might be an indication other than Michael Farris’ request for donations that Scott and Jodi ?Ferris exist and are involved in a dust-up with Milton S. Hershey Medical Center et al.

David Smith

Interesting. Indeed. So one wonders, why is there not more attention to this? Why is Chick Fil A or however you spell it of more interest than what is described as a plain case of assault, abuse of authority, and kidnapping? If the accounts we have of the incident are accurate, this is a horror story. Perhaps the trial, if it ever happens, will bring out more information. Or perhaps the suit will be bought off for money in exchange for silence.

One reason I don’t Tweet: http://www.foxnews.com/tech/2012/08/02/new-facebook-tool-may-turn-friends-into-enemies-for-democratic-cause/ 

I suppose I will have to join the 21st Century and create some kind of Facebook page to which I can upload pictures once in a while, but I have to say I don’t really know anyone whose tweets I would care to follow. I may be mistaken on that, but when I want short observations from people I respect I go look at Glenn Reynolds Instapundit.  I so no reason to follow him on Tweet, although I probably would have liked to know he was going to be at a party I attended in Chattanooga last month. I had a pleasant conversation with Glenn and his wife, but had I known he would be there I would have arranged to stay longer. In any event, I am contemplating a Facebook page (I understand there may be one with my name on it put up by friends, but I have never seen it since I don’t have a Facebook account). I don’t think I contemplate Tweeting.

The Chick Fil A story continues. http://www.foxnews.com/us/2012/08/03/viral-video-man-picking-on-chick-fil-worker-gets-him-fired/ shows the viral video of the onetime college professor and CFO of a medical manufacturing company who decided to drive in to a Chick  Fil A and get a free water, and while he was at it, harangue a very cool young lady employee working at the drive in food service window. He got his free water and did not cause Rachel to lose her cool. The result will probably be a promotion for Rachel and has apparently resulted in his dismissal as CFO. Sic transit gloria mundi.