Sunday, April 9, 2017

The map is not the territory.

Alfred Korzybski

Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.

George Santayana

I have been a bit under the weather the last couple of days. If I were still a drinking man I might describe myself as suffering from one of the milder sorts of hangovers, one that merely leaves you feeling filleted, but that’s not a possible diagnosis. I suspect it’s a mild cold – yet another – complicated by pollens everywhere. Whatever the cause, it has sure drained energy. I got some work done on Starborn and Godsons, not as much as I would like, but that drained all my energy.

Outlook 365 recently began misbehaving. The symptoms were that searches in various mail categories turned up nothing found, even when I could see things it should have found. Worse, when recording subscription renewals – and thanks to those who recently subscribed or renewed – searches in contact categories came up blank, meaning that I had to look them up manually. That takes time.

Digging about convinced me that the indexing was not working properly. I tried several techniques recommended in one or another Microsoft support document, but for two days nothing worked. It doesn’t help that Microsoft shows you nothing in the way of a progress meter, or indeed that there is any activity at all; when you tell it to rebuild an index it has no acknowledgement that the computer is actually doing the new index.

I made a couple of attempts to re-index starting from within Outlook, but if anything happened I could not detect it. Eventually I tried some more Google searches, and came up with

How To Fix Outlook 365 Search

https://lookeen.com/blog/how-to-fix-outlook-365-search

and

https://lookeen.com/blog/how-to-fix-outlook-2016-search-problems

Both of which contain good expositions on the search function, and I recommend them to your attention. And eventually Control Panel / Indexing Options / Advanced induced me to Rebuild my indexes; which worked. It takes a while to complete, but within minutes of starting I got some service from searches inside Outlook where I had none before, and now it’s back to working near instantly as it once did. The interesting part is that everything I did from Control Panel / indexing options / advanced I would swear I had attempted from within Outlook with no results whatever. In any event, my indexing problems are solved and all is well.

Fortunately, there’s been little to comment on: that is, there have been plenty of events, but anything I could add about them would be nothing but comment, there being few facts to work with, and many of those may be unreliable. There is a great deal of interesting mail regarding President Trump’s strike on the Syrian airfield, including various assessments of the effectiveness and/or wisdom of it all. Begin with this:

Thoughts on Syria

Jerry

I have a number of sometimes-contradictory thoughts about the Syrian incident. First of all, I agree with you and some of your correspondents: just as we don’t know who passed gas in 2013, we don’t know who stunk up the joint in 2017. Who did it? Can we trust the CIA to tell us? No. But does the Air Force contribute to the DIA? Well, when the USAF is involved, I trust the results about as much as I would trust the results of a CIA investigation. IOW, we can’t know. Maybe the DIA has other resources.

What was our President doing? Should he have ordered an attack, given the uncertainties involved? After thinking about it a while, I came to a conclusion: he should have ordered the attack he ordered. Now, Obama might have ordered an attack because he is a Sunni Moslem partisan, which is not a reason for a US President. But our current President is not involved in the intra-Islamic conflict. On the gripping hand he could not turn away from the use of WMD. So he punished Assad’s air force for using gas. The Russians must have agreed that a demonstration was warranted, regardless of who actually used the gas. So they let our slow birds through.

What should Trump have done if he really thought that Assad’s air force had purposely used gas? Turning the HQ into rubble would have been a more apt demonstration. A stronger declaration would have been to rubble-ize the air force HQ with the bosses in it.

But Trump felt he could not let someone use poison gas without making a gesture, so he did. Now if someone else gets the idea to use WMD somewhere else in the world, they’ll think long and hard.

Ed

I find this compelling. It was my initial reaction, and this came in Friday before we knew much. I agree with the conclusion: President Trump had to do something, given the reintroduction of war gasses into the equation; and he would being acting without complete or even highly reliable information. I do not think I would have ordered that strike, but I would not have raised a red star objection either; and many of his most reliable and competent advisors were urging far more than this action.

It was done massively, with little collateral damage and with minimal casualties. It was a demonstration that could not be ignored. It was not a small injury nor was it a crippling one; and the message was clear. Do not use war gasses.

missiles

“You can look at the pictures for yourself. The runways are fine, you killed 6 planes and it looks like some powerful spoof threw the rest of the missiles off target.“ I am a little astonished: Are we believing Russian propaganda now? And some picture that could have been from before the attack?

It’s possible, of course, but to take it as proof?!

Best wishes,

mkr

The damage was sufficient; the airfield is unusable. Yes, it can be repaired; all airfields can be repaired. Cratering the runways is effective in preventing aircraft on the field or in bunkers from taking off, but runway craters with no follow up attacks are a delaying injury, not a crippling one. Runway craters are the most easily and quickly repaired damages an airfield can take: vital if the objective is the aircraft on that field, almost superfluous if the objective is near elimination of the airfield itself. Any airfield damage is repairable, and none can be completely eliminated by a single strike; but the infrastructure and fuel dumps, the aircraft repair facilities, are the vital targets. We had good satellite pictures of that airfield, and I have full confidence in the Navy’s effectiveness with these massive slow but accurate missiles.

WHAT WAS THAT GAS

Syria, chlorine, and sarin

Jerry,

Several reports suggest that the chemical attack was primarily chlorine with traces of sarin; for example,

http://time.com/4728155/nerve-gas-sarin-chlorine-syria-chemica-attack/

Conversely

http://www.news.com.au/world/middle-east/chemical-war-in-syria-russia-blaming-rebels-highly-implausible/news-story/d751f6972509fad5a9f3d7f98e3f4a92

has a lot of malarkey. It takes very carefully controlled conditions to ensure the complete incineration of sarin; it’s normally dispersed by explosive and an explosion followed by an open fire is not going to destroy all of the sarin or prevent it from forming from its explosively dispersed and mixed binary components (though that would certainly be inefficient). The point about “only a fool would store the binary components of sarin together” is accepted, but available evidence suggests that ISIS has no shortage of fools.

Sarin is a liquid, but it is very volatile and evaporates relatively quickly (with a boiling point of 314 F, droplets of a given size will not linger much longer than water droplets of the same size – will in fact evaporate more quickly than water if the relative humidity is high). Of course, liquefied chlorine evaporates much more quickly under the same circumstances. Also -depending on concentration – the time to death with sarin exposure could be fifteen or more minutes; it’s not instantaneous under any circumstances. The minimum time to death (see CDC page below) for inhalation of high doses of sarin is about 1 minute for the chemical to be dispersed through the body and act.

Sarin exposure symptoms are given at https://www.drugs.com/cg/nerve-gas-poisoning.html and https://emergency.cdc.gov/agent/sarin/index.asp. Chlorine exposure symptoms are given at  http://emedicine.medscape.com/article/832336-overview and https://emergency.cdc.gov/agent/chlorine/index.asp.  Either description supports excessive salivation, which may lead to the evidence of foaming at the mouth.

The presence of both chemicals is one reason I would suspect an ISIS store. Conversely, a report on Fox News tonight (an interview on The O’Reilly Factor at http://video.foxnews.com/v/5390278386001/?#sp=show-clips) stated that the Pentagon has footage of Syrian aircraft on the bombing run at the time of the gassing (which does not prove that the gas wasn’t stored in the target facilities), and that the Syrians and Russians have both completed follow-up bombing that seem purposed to hide the evidence of the first chemical attack (which conversely sounds like it could be an admission of guilt by Assad or his forces). 

I would remain agnostic on the subject of whether the chemicals were Syrian or ISIS-controlled without more data, despite O’Reilly’s assertion that only a crazy person would believe that they were not Syrian. Not knowing more about conditions on the ground, I would assess the two possibilities at approximately equal probability, and I have seen a lot of strong arguments supporting the idea that the target held chemical stores that ISIS had captured (and a lot of strong argument rebutting that idea). I would hope that the Pentagon had strong evidence to support the idea that Assad’s forces dropped the saran before taking the actions they have, but the evidence I have heard so far does not rise to that level.

In the larger geopolitical sense, it currently (Friday 4/7 about midnight) appears that the American action was a success in the sense that it sent a message to all parties requiring a message (i.e, not only Assad and Putin, but also Kim and Xi) and has not triggered (so far) an in-kind response from Assad, Putin, or the Ayatollahs. On the other hand, it’s been praised by ISIS, which is hardly a good thing. On the gripping hand, available evidence suggests that Trump has used his only “get out of jail free” card with Russia insofar as “getting frisky” over Syria is concerned. One hopes he doesn’t need another.

Anon

Thank you. The demonstrations of sarin that I witnessed were of tethered sheep at various distances from the release point; my impression was that the time to death was nearly instant. But that was long ago, and my memory is not all that good anymore. The symptoms I saw on the TV, and the reactions of the medical and rescue workers to exposed patients led me to believe it was unlike the sarin demonstrations I saw.

Commenting on the above, Stephanie says:

Syria, chlorine, and sarin

*Sarin doesn’t cause the respiratory symptoms initially reported observed in the victims. It’s a nerve agent. It does tend to kill via asphyxiation, but only because the nerve network for the lungs has been hosed, and consequently the victim finds it impossible to control the musculature for breathing. Relatively small amounts can be fatal very quickly, and are readily absorbed through the skin.

*Mustard gas does not cause the symptoms observed in the victims. It’s a blister agent. It can damage the lungs if inhaled, and this can kill fairly readily, but there were no skin lesions/blisters on the victims that I saw.

*Chlorine gas would cause the observed respiratory symptoms, but there were initially no reports of the characteristic bleach-like odors, nor reports of a green gas cloud. Symptoms can be slow to appear, taking as long as 24 hrs. It’s a choking/asphyxiation agent. Sufficient quantities can simply fill the lungs in lieu of oxygen and kill that way, or it can take longer, reacting with the fluid in the lungs and burning them.

*Phosgene gas would cause the observed respiratory symptoms, but there were no reports of the characteristic “new-mown grass/hay” odors, and the symptoms are often slow to appear, though not as slow as chlorine — say on order hours. It’s a choking/asphyxiation agent.

And it’s my understanding that the respiratory difficulties came on fairly quickly in the victims, though I may be wrong about that. Still, I don’t think it took on order of a day to show up. In short, IMHO there is no ready chemical agent that would be fairly easily produced that matches observations.

At one time, and by dint of my multi-degree background, I was my branch’s resident expert in NBC weapons fx (as it was called then; there’s a different acronym now than NBC). I was even sent to some special conferences/facilities to be trained in same. All classified; can’t talk about details.

It may well have been a combo of sarin and chlorine, according to the reports that are now starting to come out, but initial reports did not support either. I think, in order to get the observed fx as swiftly as they were seen, it may require something more sophisticated, perhaps VX, for instance. And there may have been no need to invoke chlorine; decon for VX involves washing the victim(s) with a dilute bleach solution, and this must be done before transporting to medical facilities; I note that it was the medical personnel that reported a bleach smell.

I’ve been out of the loop on this for some time, so I can’t really go try to find out more details. But I’m intrigued by the whole thing, from a scientific perspective. Horrified, from a human perspective.

~Stephanie Osborn, “The Interstellar Woman of Mystery”

http://www.Stephanie-Osborn.com

Award-winning author of the Division One, Gentleman Aegis, and Displaced Detective series

I would be astonished if it were VX for a number of reasons. We investigated using it in Viet Nam – “Warning: all humans and other living animals entering the region will die. This area is contaminated. Do not enter.” We never went beyond studies so far as I know, and the stuff had few champions; everyone hated it, and I confess I have deliberately forgotten most of what I knew about it, but I did have reason to learn more back then. It was also a long time ago.

Thanks. Perhaps it was sarin, but my impression of the sarin demonstration I witnessed was that it acts very fast. At least on sheep.

I remain unconvinced that Assad had any sane motivation to use sarin in that situation. The target was militarily worthless (unless it really was a storehouse of rebel-held sarin), and if he wanted to kill 73 civilians including children, surely he had less risky means to do it.

We can speculate on this, but we have no evidence; not even of what it was, although one would think that by now we would at least have that. We also have very little on what the actual target of the Syrian warplane was. Bombing random civilians may be a way to soften up a target area for an offense, but this certainly wasn’t that. I await further facts with some eagerness, but I don’t have high confidence in getting them.

I do have some confidence that Western educated Bashar Assad is not a stupid man, and that he fully realizes the downside of employing chemical weapons for pure terror, and the effects that would have on the West – including Russia. And I cannot fathom the upside. My natural tendency is to ask who profits…

Sarin effects

Dear Doctor Pournelle,

I believe the observed symptoms in news video of the victims of the alleged Sarin attack in Syria are consistent with the early stages of Sarin poisoning, as detailed in the “Effects and Treatment” portion of the Wikipedia article on Sarin, herewith copied:

:

“Effects and treatment

Sarin has a high volatility (ease with which a liquid can turn into a

gas) relative to similar nerve agents, therefore inhalation can be very dangerous and even vapor concentrations may immediately penetrate the skin. A person’s clothing can release sarin for about 30 minutes after it has come in contact with sarin gas, which can lead to exposure of other people.[28]

Even at very low concentrations, sarin can be fatal. Death may follow in

1 to 10 minutes after direct inhalation of a lethal dose unless antidotes, typically atropine and pralidoxime, are quickly administered.[5] Atropine, an antagonist to muscarinic acetylcholine receptors, is given to treat the physiological symptoms of poisoning.

Since muscular response to acetylcholine is mediated through nicotinic acetylcholine receptors, atropine does not counteract the muscular symptoms. Pralidoxime can regenerate cholinesterases if administered within approximately five hours. Biperiden, a synthetic acetylcholine antagonist, has been suggested as an alternative to atropine due to its better blood–brain barrier penetration and higher efficacy.[29]

As a nerve gas, sarin in its purest form is estimated to be 26 times more deadly than cyanide.[30] The LD50 of subcutaneously injected sarin in mice is 172 µg/kg.[31] Treatment measures have been described.[32]

Initial symptoms following exposure to sarin are a runny nose, tightness in the chest and constriction of the pupils. Soon after, the victim has difficulty breathing and experiences nausea and drooling. As the victim continues to lose control of bodily functions, the victim vomits, defecates and urinates. This phase is followed by twitching and jerking.

Ultimately, the victim becomes comatose and suffocates in a series of convulsive spasms. Moreover, common mnemonics for the symptomatology of organophosphate poisoning, including sarin gas, are the “killer B’s” of bronchorrhea and bronchospasm because they are the leading cause of death,[33] and SLUDGE – Salivation, Lacrimation, Urination, Defecation, Gastrointestinal distress, and Emesis.”

I note that the same symptoms of gasping for breath would be caused by a blood gas, such as Cyanide in any of several war gas forms, but the detection of war gases and their labeling is fairly wide spread and effective tech, so I doubt there is much real confusion by any -experts- with access to the site of the alleged attack. However, I exclude any media talking head from the category of “expert” in anything other than BS, so we don’t know from the media what happened.

I know the mantra about WMD, but anyone who knows the effects of fire, smoke, hot metal flung at supersonic speed and high explosive on the rather frail creature called “man” tends to view any foofaraw over the use of poison in war with more than a grain of salt.

As for Assad being a rational actor, well perhaps. I would not assume he is in full control, or that every actor below him in the chain of command is rational. Henry did not want Becket harmed, butthere was blood in the cathedral.

Petronius

My experiences were more dramatic, but a long time ago.

Syria

I think that the most telling feature about the gas attack was anomalous timing.

The earliest stories about the use of nerve gas occurred several hours before the first attacks by the Syrian planes..

Add in the many stories of the Turks supplying raw materials to the rebels and we have a situation in which none of the “breaking news” can be believed.

And I say this as a former submarine officer who was tasked with launching the SLBMs at the USSR. Knowing full well the many mistaken “proof positive” events where we (any they) identified a massive flights of inbound missiles. One of the worst events of my life was to hear over the 1MC the phrase “Man Battle Station Missile” instead of frequent “Man Battle Station Missile for WSRT” (Weapon System Readiness Test) while at operating area. What made this particularly ominous was the previous message “Captain to Radio” (something that was never done except absolutely necessary – normally the telephones are used)

Rather like “This is no drill, I say again, This is no drill.”

The Russians and Air Defense in Syria

Dr. Pournelle,
More and more rarely now current events fall into my (limited) sphere of knowledge. As both a section sergeant and platoon leader of a SHORAD (short range air defense) unit I was responsible for portions of an air base defense in Western Germany. Those defenses invariably included two factors: a threat assessment and Rules of Engagement (ROE). The former included both the likeliness of friendly aircraft in the area and the likelihood of specific hostile aircraft in the area. At the time in the early 80’s we were reliant upon visual aircraft identification (VACR) which easily consumed 80% of our training time. Then, a positively identified hostile in an area denied by the rules of engagement was fair game. The Russians were absolute masters at the game of chicken. They would fly their assault and interceptor aircraft right to the very boundaries of our airbase defenses. I used to have nightmares of initiating World War III when some hotshot pilot overflew his mandate. All that I said to say that in this day of infinitely more data and awareness the Russian air defense personnel must be assumed to be competent, in possession of a great deal of advance knowledge, and very precise instructions as to how and when to actively defend their asset. The fact that they did not engage these incoming missiles indicates that their Rules of Engagement were changed at least at the theater level, if not from the highest command. We may not have consulted the Russians, but they were certainly on board for this trip to the woodshed. The old saying is “Make hay when the sun is shining”. I’m sure they will.
Sincerely,
John Thomas

I would think that a fair inference.

An alternative Syrian gas attack theory

Dr. Pournelle,
It occurs to me that Assad is remarkably personally quiet. Perhaps he is an Iranian puppet, and on his way to a Mussolini-like reckoning. No one has apparently commented on the probability that there are likely Iranian supporters, agents, and mercenaries acting on behalf of Syria’s government. Is it not possible that there is one such who could order an improvised (aerosol ammonia or mustard), low-tech attack against an e.g. internal political rival, a dissenting Imam, or a Muslim apostate? Could it not serve Iran’s or Russia’s goals to discredit their figurehead in order to justify their own takeover? Perhaps the puppet is losing his remaining nerve?
No doubt Assad needs to be gone. It occurs to me, though, that his erstwhile friends might think so, too.
It kind of makes me nervous, on Israel’s behalf, that Passover is starting. A classic Russian move might be a Syrian military coup declaring a new enemy in common with ISIS and Iran…
-d

Indeed.

Why would Assad do it?

Consider first, that the previous Administration’s policy was to seek the removal of Assad via diplomatic means, rather than direct military intervention. Obama’s successor, on the other hand, has signaled a desire to work cooperatively with the Russians, an ally of Assad, focusing on the defeat of ISIS in Syria. Then, just a few days before the attack, Tillerson states that the future of Assad with be decided by the Syrian people. This was widely reported as a shift in strategy, that we were no longer going to actively seek Assad’s removal, something that the Russians would certainly be happy with. Was the timing between Tillerson’s remarks and the attack coincidental? While Tillerson’s comments were not exactly a green light for Assad to do whatever he wanted, Assad may well have wanted to test the willingness of the Trump administration to maintain a hands off posture. Now he has an answer, albeit one that may have come at a cost higher than he anticipated. Can you blame him for trying? The previous President had talked tough, and then failed to follow through. The only way to find out how Trump would react was to test him.
The choice of a non-strategic target might have been intentional, providing some degree of plausible deniability, and improve the likelihood that some would buy a false flag narrative.
Why would the Russian’s cooperate? First, they may still hold out hope for greater cooperation from the Trump administration. Why escalate a confrontation over a Syrian airbase? Secondly, Putin undoubtedly understands the need for Trump to make a demonstration of strong leadership by making a significant military response to a provocation. It also buys Trump some distance from the charge that he is in Putin’s pocket. If the Trump administration proceeds from this point with a hands-off approach to Assad, then Russia gets what it wants with little cost, and also boosts Trump position domestically.

Craig

One possibility, but I see little evidence for it. Using sarin is massively provocative; and ISIS could collect sarin as easily as Assad; perhaps more easily. But we have no evidence they did.

Syria: notes on Russian BDA and Dilbert analysis

Dr. Pournelle,
I did watch the video released on the internet, alleged to be from a Russian drone, allegedly showing the damage at the Syrian airbase. It is just a couple minutes long, and doesn’t show much. There are some IR hot spots with little context, and it looks like a couple broken hardened aircraft structures. A lot of it shows unaffected taxi ways. As with any drone footage, without more context, no comparison photos or maps, and little or no geographical references it is very hard to say what it actually shows. Alone, it is poor bomb damage assessment.
As for awesome EW and spoofing, Tomahawk has always used a pretty much spoof-proof guidance system. Remember that it was that missile with the Pershing II that pretty much put paid to the cold war, and that there was a design parameter for a precision targeting system. Also remember that missile guidance systems have continued development since the 80’s, and aren’t reliant on GPS. Electronic warfare as commonly used in the battlespace is hardly applicable. I am not saying that it is impossible to spoof a Tomahawk, or that my knowledge is even vaguely up-to-date, just seems unlikely.
I would speculate that with a couple drones of his own and live target coverage, it wouldn’t take a Navy mission planner very much effort to throw a few more shots at any targets missed in the first wave or two.
As far as Scott Adams’ doubts on Syrian air traffic intelligence, he is pretty much out of the loop. With U.S. and NATO assets in play in the area, my bet would be that there are several years worth of detailed tracking of low-level flight at ready storage. I like the Dilbert blog even if I don’t always agree with it, but this is a field where Mr. Adams has little knowledge.
The short answer is that I doubt the success of a false flag op. Trump has very, very good tactical intel at his disposal and his military advisers know precisely who was responsible for the gas attack. We probably will never have that access.
As to the legality of the missile strike, I wonder if there is a chemical weapons treaty in place that permits retaliation against a weapon user?
Cheers!
-d

Treating use of war gasses as an act equivalent to piracy could be defended by a large number of prominent international lawyers; but then, international law tends to favor the victors. We went to war opposing unrestricted submarine warfare in WWI; in WWII we declared unrestricted submarine warfare in the Pacific days after Pearl Harbor.

I find a false flag operation somewhat more credible than that large a mistake by Assad, but I cannot challenge any points in your argument other than your assumptions regarding our intelligence services. Some may be more competent in persuasion than they are in finding evidence.

a third possibility for the nerve agent used in Syria

Jerry, there is a third nerve agent that could have been used in Syria besides Sarin and Soman.

in the 1980s and 1990s, the Soviets created a new (5th) generation of nerve agents.  The most obvious of these being named Novichok.
Physiologically, it’s pretty horrible stuff, even by the standards of GS and VX nerve agents.  It also has the ‘qualities’ of being undetectable by NATO-standard analysis equipment and field gear.  It’s also pretty unstable.  In the dry climate of the Middle East, it could well start decomposing in 24-48 hours, being wholly undetectable in a week or so.

Be well….

Chuck

Understood, and that is well beyond my period of experience. I have no knowledge here.

r.e. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it. George Santayana

Dear Jerry,

Surely this doesn’t this include 2003 when the USA invaded Iraq under the bogus claim of “Iraqi WMDs”? 

And surely Assad’s explanation for this event can’t be true either.  Namely, that Syrian conventional bombing detonated rebel-held stocks of war gases.  This has never happened before.  Well, except in January, 1991 when CENTCOM bombed some of Hussein’s stocks of nerve agents leading to their widespread dispersal.  Just how widespread is still the subject of scientific debate decades later:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/14/us/paper-links-nerve-agents-in-91-gulf-war-and-ailments.html

But let’s not talk about that either.

No, I’m sure its exactly as our incorruptible, non-partisan, non-leaking and non-double agent penetrated* Guardians of the Republic – literally a real life Jedi Order – in the intelligence community have assured us.

Best Wishes,

Mark 

p.s.  And despite numerous proven traitors taking positive pittances from the miserly Soviets during the Cold War, it is a certainly the far deeper pocketed Saudis and Gulf Arabs have never, ever, purchased American moles and double agents for significantly higher prices.  Nor has anyone high up in the intelligence services, a CIA station chief for example, ever converted to Islam and thus become an ideologically motivated mole. —

We also have some very competent people in the 17 or so intelligence services. Perhaps President Trump knows a few of them. But I have not forgotten the Iron Law.

SUBJ: 14 Questions About Syria

14 Questions that should be answered before making up one’s mind about American involvement in Syria.

http://thefederalist.com/2017/04/06/so-you-want-to-go-to-war-in-syria-to-depose-assad-can-you-answer-these-questions-first/

Brief and very worth the read.

Reminiscent of a warning that preceded another war:

“YOU BREAK IT, YOU BOUGHT IT.”

Cordially,

John

On scragging airbases

Russian aerial equipment is designed to operate in ‘austere’ conditions, You know, what USAF calls a base without a golf course. I kid, sorta. Have never heard of TLAM’s having a runway denial loadout and assuming that this is still the case, while the strike may have done a good job scraping the cruft off the surface, it’s still a usable air strip. Coupla tents, fuel bowsers and munitions trailers and they’re back in action, should they choose.

John

The infrastructure is important, and is now gone so far as I can tell. Like the Swedes, Russian aircraft can operate from roadways and trucks if need be; I doubt Syrian Pilots can.

EM-Drive News and Not-

Hi Dr Pournelle,
The ‘leaked NASA paper’ news is about a year old. Harold White and the Eagleworks crew published in an AIAA journal last year: https://arc.aiaa.org/doi/full/10.2514/1.B36120
Thus the paper is no longer ‘leaked’ and so it’s “Not-News” being late to the party. I think some ‘bot has recycled copy from a few months ago.
What is news is that a Mach Effect Thruster (arguably a relative of the EM-Drive) is being studied under a Phase I NIAC study:
https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/spacetech/niac/2017_Phase_I_Phase_II/Mach_Effects_for_In_Space_Propulsion_Interstellar_Mission
Will be very interesting to see what new results they come up with.

: Adam

The subject remains interesting; but then I want to believe it works. I would not bet a lot on it, though.

NASA’s EM Drive and peer-reviewed

Your correspondent Peter linked this article: http://www.digitaltrends.com/cool-tech/emdrive-news-rumors/
What I found most interesting about the article wasn’t the possible reactionless drive (which we’re all rooting for of course). Instead, the article seemed to think that the goal wasn’t so much a working drive as a peer-reviewed paper about a possibly working drive. The article repeatedly referenced that a peer-reviewed paper would legitimize the science behind the EM Drive.
This reminds me of a passage in Asimov’s Foundation series where an archeologist of the Empire thinks that the proper way to do archeology is to review all the previously published work and render an opinion of which is best.
I wish these scientists would get a bit of adventurous spirit (and funding to match) and just launch an EM Drive equipped satellite loaded with sensors and see if it actually goes anywhere. Once we have a working model, then they can argue about how it works all they like.
Brent B.

I continue to get reports that the Chinese actually flew a copy. I do not hear about results.

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

Friday, April 7, 2017

The map is not the territory.

Alfred Korzybski

If you establish a democracy, you must in due time reap the fruits of a democracy. You will in due season have great impatience of public burdens, combined in due season with great increase of public expenditure. You will in due season have wars entered into from passion and not from reason;

Benjamin Disraeli

Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.

George Santayana

It is now known that although President Trump did not directly notify President Putin of the impending strike against the Syrian airbase, established protocols for notifying Russian military in the region of upcoming operations were activated; President Trump knew that the Russians knew we were going to fire missiles at that airbase, and when we would do it. Since the area is defended with Russian SAM-10 and SAMs of lesser but quite effective capability, yet all 59 missiles apparently reached their targets, it is a reasonable inference that the Russians were ordered to stand down and let the attack take place.

It is also an even greater puzzle: who attacked Khan Sheikhoun, the northern Syrian town struck by war gasses, and why? There are few known military targets anywhere near where the war gas attack – said by the Turks to be sarin – took place. The New York Times summarizes quite well why Assad had good reason not to order such an attack:

The Grim Logic Behind Syria’s Chemical Weapons Attack

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/06/world/middleeast/syria-bashar-al-assad-russia-sarin-attack.html?_r=0

 

BEIRUT, Lebanon — The diplomatic situation had been looking bright for President Bashar al-Assad of Syria. With the help of Russia, he had consolidated his power, the rebels were on their heels and the United States had just declared that ousting him was not a priority.

So why would Mr. Assad risk it all, outraging the world by attacking civilians with what Turkey now says was the nerve agent sarin, killing scores of people, many of them children? Why would he inflict the deadliest chemical strike since the 2013 attacks outside Damascus? Those attacks came close to bringing American military retaliation then. And in a stunningly swift reversal, Tuesday’s attack drew a response from President Trump: dozens of cruise missiles launched at a Syrian air base.

One of the main defenses offered by Mr. Assad’s allies and supporters, in disputing that his forces carried out the strike on Tuesday, is that such an attack would be “a crazy move,” as one Iranian analyst, Mosib Na’imi, told the Russian state-run news site Sputnik. [snip]

This logic seems nearly impeccable. But the Times continues

[snip] Yet, rather than an inexplicable act, analysts say, it is part of a carefully calculated strategy of escalating attacks against civilians.

For years, at least since it began shelling neighborhoods with artillery in 2012, then bombing them from helicopters and later from jets, the Syrian government has adopted a policy of seeking total victory by making life as miserable as possible for anyone living in areas outside its control. [snip]

The article continues to make this case at length, and you can believe as much of it as you want to. The fact remains that using war gasses on civilian rebels at that time and place makes no sense for Assad, and whatever he may be, I would not have said he was stupid. If you have a winning position, why take stupid chances that can do you very little good, and can do you a great deal of harm?

So who does benefit from the war gas attack on Khan Sheikhoun? The rebels, of course. And of those rebels, the Caliphate stands to gain most. Assad has lost an airfield. And if the United States can be sucked into a conflict with Russia, all the better. The cost of the attack? One expendable missile, fired from anywhere although preferably from in or near Assad regime territory.

Who is most likely to have war gasses? ISIS – the Caliphate.

For a more detailed analysis, see:

What caused the chemical calamity in Khan Sheikhoun, Syria on April 4, 2017?

https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/what-caused-the-chemical-calamity-in-khan-sheikhoun-syria-on-april-4-2017-18448

Overview

Hypotheses

Calculated

Conclusions

1

Opposition forces carried out a chemical attack (as a false flag).[1]

52% (Inconclusive)

2

A Syrian Arab Army (SAA) conventional bombing caused an unintentional release of opposition chemical agents.[2]

36% (Somewhat unlikely)

3

The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) carried out a chemical attack.[3]

12% (Somewhat unlikely)

While I cannot endorse these numbers for lack of evidence, I do think their rank order of likelihood is correct, and I will go further and say I find it easier to believe this was a false flag operation by ISIS than any other hypothesis. They have the means, motive, and opportunity. Assad has little motive, and international inspectors do not believe he has the means (although this is hardly decisive: he has the means to acquire war gasses; I leave calculating the probability that he has done so without detection to you.

I do not find it likely that any war gas, sarin or otherwise, was lying around in that village and was accidentally released, either by a Syrian air strike or anything else. US intelligence is convinced that there was a Syrian air strike, and that this was the delivery of the war gas. They certainly have evidence that there was an air strike, and that it came from the now destroyed Syrian air field; I have not seen or heard of the evidence that the air strike was delivery of a chemical weapon.

I have seen no evidence that the Syrian air strike was against a rebel owned war gas manufacturing facility, which is another possible explanation for Syrian air presence at the time of the war gas attack. It, is, however more believable than that Assad has secretly hidden war gasses from international inspectors, then chose to use them against his own people in an attack that had no military target at all but was intended merely to kill civilians and children in the presence of the international press.

But if it was a false flag operation intended to deceive President Trump, its success is alarming, and does little to increase the credibility or efficiency of US intelligence operations in that region, or the analysts in the White House. Since we don’t know, we can draw no conclusions. But we can wonder if the main beneficiary of this operation may not be the Caliphate.

Was it sarin?

I have seen no evidence of sarin. Sarin need not be breathed; it is a liquid and a very tiny amount absorbed through the skin is deadly. The rescue and medical workers in the TV pictures show victims gasping for breath. With sarin you do not gasp. You can’t.

What was it? Most of the symptoms I observed in the TV pictures suggest phosgene or even chlorine, but both are fairly easily detected and we have heard no accounts of “new mown hay” or Clorox odors. Neither is as lethal as this agent obviously was. It was obviously a war gas, but apparently some were exposed and lived, and unprotected medical and rescue worker were in close contact with victims but were not affected. I have no idea.

I have this:

Air Strike “Was it Machiavelli or Sun Tsu?”
LOL, it was Curly, you know the Stooge.
This pitiful excuse for a cruise missile strike has the Russian staff cracking jokes. My favorite: “We have no idea what happened to the missing 36 missiles.”
You may have learned more by now but I’ll help. You can look at the pictures for yourself. The runways are fine, you killed 6 planes and it looks like some powerful spoof threw the rest of the missiles off target. Remember, “the Russians have eye watering EW capacity”, some US general after the Ukraine started.

Chris Carson

I have not seen these pictures. The last news I have was that all 59 missiles reached their target, and the target was devastated. Obviously if that is incorrect the situation is radically changed. One reason I hate to comment on breaking news with incomplete information.

tomahawks

Friday was the day Donald Trump truly became president. The buck stopped here with him. Before this he was doing a wonderful job as chief administrator. Friday he became commander in chief of the most powerful military in the world. His actions were retrained but powerful. A warning to stop now before it get worse. It’s easy for many to say he should have ignored what happened, but he had to look at the real time Intel of all those dead babies. I’m rather proud of him.

Good Bless the United States of America.

—

Phil Tharp

I have the same feelings. I also recall Disraeli

http://www.azquotes.com/quote/604987

Syrian Gas Attack & Response I’m troubled by many aspects of this gas attack.
It appears to be suspiciously well and quickly documented in war-torn Syria. I have seen no documentation or suggestion of a military target nearby.
Which suggests the question of why Assad would engage in Suicide by Trump?
If this was a false flag operation it was designed and executed expertly. Almost no one would not take the bait and President Trump was almost certain to.
So, if this was a false flag attack, who benefits?
We can be sure the Russians were watching those Tomahawks in great detail with every sensor platform they have.

Tony

I have the same suspicions, and I do not see anyone dealing with them. I do not like this.

Other takes on Syria

All may not be as it appears. It rarely is, as we seem to re-discover every day.

http://blog.dilbert.com/post/159300836386/the-syrian-air-base-attack

More evidence that it wasn’t Assad who used the gas (although Hersch seems to assume it was sarin):

https://americanlookout.com/rms-legendary-investigative-journalist-hillary-approved-sale-of-nerve-gas-to-syria/

More about Hersch:

https://consortiumnews.com/2017/04/06/nyt-retreats-on-2013-syria-sarin-claims/

Richard White

I find the Dilbert analysis very well done and interesting. We don’t know anything, and the news slowly filters out.

How Convenient For The Israelis

Dear Jerry,

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/new-war-middle-east-israel-hezbollah-lebanon-iran-syria-donald-trump-us-administration-conflict-a7670126.html

It sure looks like a rematch is being scheduled for the failed 2006 War.  Its probably been forgotten that Israel roundly lost the 2006 fight against Hezbollah tactically and operationally.  Strategically the outcome was a stalemate at best.  Israel then tried to mask this defeat by a period of indiscriminate shelling and bombing of civilians all over Lebanon, similar to what Assad is accused of doing recently.  Except that no one has alleged Assad used US supplied weapons to do whatever he is alleged to have done.

And of course both Assad and Hezbollah are well known allies, proxies and satellites of Iran, the contemporary source of all evil on Earth.

It was certainly fortuitous for Friends of Israel everywhere that Assad chose this precise moment to decide it was vital to his regime’s survival to deploy chemical weapons of mass destruction against unarmed civilians.

Best Wishes,

Mark

No comment. Of course it has to be considered.

Strike

Dr Pournelle 

RE: Slay a dragon

This is speculation, but perhaps the strike on the Syrian air base was also intended to serve notice to the Chinese gov’t: Trump will do what he says he will do. You will not see multiple lines drawn in the sand. You will not see even one. 

There’s a new sheriff in town. 

The Chinese president cannot fail to notice the size or the timing: massive strike ordered, dinner, massive strike reported. Trump said he will nuke Pyongyang. He means it. Curb your dog now or we will put it down. 

As to the reduced casualties, I think the timing was driven more by the dinner with the Chinese president than by a desire to mitigate casualties. If I wanted to send a message to the Syrians, I would have struck when they were open and taken out the command element. 

Live long and prosper 

h lynn keith

It will certainly have that effect.

Syrian Attack

The missiles strikes against Syria came with many interesting reports.

In 2013, the US government could not link Assad to the strike. I read reports that Syrian rebels claimed responsibility. I do not have a position on the 2013 incident and neither does LTG Michael Flynn:

<.>

During a 2015 trip to Russia, Donald Trump’s pick to be national security adviser, Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, said he didn’t know whether the 2013 sarin gas attack in Syria was conducted by the Syrian Army or by other forces in an attempt to draw the United States into the conflict.

Flynn not ruling out the possibility of a “false flag” attack raises questions about how the Trump administration will approach the Syrian conflict.

</>

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/20/politics/kfile-michael-flynn-rt-syria/index.html

Russia seems pretty sure the 2013 incident was not Assad:

<.>

Russia said it has “clear” evidence that Syrian rebels fired a rocket laden with sarin gas at an Aleppo suburb in March, a view that clashed with U.S. conclusions on the same issue last month and was initially rejected Tuesday by Washington.

</>

https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424127887324507404578596153561287028

And the Russians aren’t alone on this:

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/05/un-sources-say-rebel-forces-not-assad-used-sarin-gas/315588/

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-crisis-un-idUSBRE94409Z20130505

Russia will make a similar argument about the 2017 strike before the United Nations:

<.>

Russia will argue at the United Nations that an apparent chemical attack that left scores dead in Syria was in fact contamination caused by rebels’ chemical munitions, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Wednesday.

</>

http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-to-argue-at-un-that-syrian-rebels-responsible-for-chemical-weapons-attack-that-killed-dozens-2017-4

Now, Russia offered two stories. The one in this article claims the Russian side believes that a Syrian rebel chemical munitions factory was hit in the strike, causing the leak. Others on the ground say two chemical strikes occurred — the initial strike and then a strike on first responders. But, another Russian source stated the rebels knew, in advance, of the airstrike and released the gas around the same time as the airstrike to make it look as if Assad had done it.

As with the 2013 incident, I do not know what to make of the 2017 incident. Like you, I would not have ordered the strike until I was clear on what was happening.

It is curious the Russians did not attempt to intercept any of the cruise missiles. I have some ideas about that, but I’m sure you do too…. Not being a fly on the wall at the Kremlin, I’ll keep my ideas to myself for now.

◊ ◊ ◊ ◊ ◊

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

I am not privy to Kremlin policy discussions.

More on NASA and Em Drive

http://www.digitaltrends.com/cool-tech/emdrive-news-rumors/
A leaked NASA paper was posted on a NASA spaceflight forum –
http://www.digitaltrends.com/cool-tech/nasa-paper-emdrive/
says that the drive actually works!
“But a leaked NASA document obtained this week by the IB Times suggests the system may indeed be viable. The paper, described as “an early draft of Nasa’s much-anticipated peer-reviewed paper”on the technology, details tests carried out by NASA’s experimental Eagleworks Laboratories at the Johnson Space Center in Texas and describes the system “consistently performing.”
I’d prefer a link to the paper rather than a link to a page talking about the paper. But, it is what it is.

Peter

You can believe as much as you want to. I would like to believe it all, but the lack of evidence I can examine keeps interfering.

NR: did Obama aide commission false NOAA report

Dr Pournelle,
Spotted this summary in National Review: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/446505/judicial-watch-lawsuit-seeks-obama-white-house-records-controversial-global-warming
A president abusing his office in order to influence holy science? Say it ain’t so!
Maybe that Trump transition team questionnaire to the EPA was sort of justified? Maybe the march of scientists is just practice for a beltway job fair? Maybe Bill Nye is just another loud nut job entertainer? Maybe it was all just a Chinese conspiracy?
Wishing you and Roberta the best,
-d

I bite my lip…

Mining Asteroids Just Got Real

Yes, I know it’s “The Sun” and respectable “news” like MSNBC, CNBC, CNN, Fox, and the Wall Street Journal never do fake news — oh wait they do.. WSJ is involved in the anti-Google ad revenue scandal that

I can brief you on if you prefer. But, I digress. The Sun reports

on something picked up by Business Insider (a NYT publication) and others on mining asteroids and Goldman Sach’s support of the same:

<.>

“While the psychological barrier to mining asteroids is high, the actual financial and technological barriers are far lower,” the report said, according to Business Insider.

“Prospecting probes can likely be built for tens of millions of dollars each and Caltech has suggested an asteroid-grabbing spacecraft could cost $2.6bn.”

[Goldman Sachs] added: “Space mining could be more realistic than perceived.”

It is believed an asteroid the size of a football field could be worth up to £40 billion.

However, bringing that much platinum back to Earth is likely to crash the precious metal market – and probably the rest of the economy with it.

</>

https://www.thesun.co.uk/tech/3270708/goldman-sachs-unveils-realistic-plan-to-earn-vast-sums-of-money-by-mining-platinum-from-asteroids/

And this crap about “crashing the economy” reveals that writers at The Sun clearly don’t understand how the diamond trade works. Nobody would want to “crash the market” as that would ruin their profits.

Better to bring the stuff back here, sit on it like a dragon, and release it — discreetly — into the economy while transferring wealth to one’s self and one’s associates. That, I believe, is the more likely course of action — assuming no one pirates the payload. Space pirates will crop up very quickly, I’ll bet.

Whatever the case, we must learn to live in space!

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

 

I have been saying do since A Step Farther Out…

Atmosphere Detected On An Earth-sized Exoplanet

Jerry,
From the BBC: Atmosphere found around Earth-like planet GJ 1132b (http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-39521344).
The planet is 1.4 times Earth’s mass and orbits a M type star. It is estimated to have a surface temperature of 370 degrees C, so there is little hope of life as we know it, but this is a demonstration that atmospheres on Earth-sized exoplanets can be detected and even partly characterized by current technology. Legacy of Heorot, anyone?

Kevin

Speaking of which, it’s time to go working on Godsons and Starborn

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

Thursday, April 6, 2017

Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.

George Santayana

1135 You all know of the US missile strike in Syria. President Trump has found a dragon to kill, and he has dealt it a serious blow, although he did not slay it. The dragon had not attacked the United States, but it had left Syrian children gasping for breath as they died on camera. You could expect any man to react to that. Mr. Trump is certainly one of them.  Only a monster would order that chemical attack, and monsters deserve death and destruction.

Observations:

Apparently all 50 Tomahawks struck home. Assuming that to be true, several deductions are possible.

First, those are slow missiles. Top speed, about 500 miles per hour. They are very accurate, but they are slow. They were in the air for at least half an hour. They went past areas defended by Russian missiles of SA-6 and newer, any of them capable of shooting down a slow cruise missile like a Tomahawk. It is unlikely that the fleet of 50 Tomahawks, fired in a time on target pattern, were not observed; but so far as I know, not one was intercepted. 

Second, the attack was limited to a single military installation which was presumed to be the base from which the chemical attack on the Syrian civilians including children. While limited to that base area, the attack was massive: over fifty Tomahawk missiles, each carrying 1,000 pounds of high explosives, in a time on target attack by highly accurate missiles fired from ships who we may assume took a carefully controlled course during launch. We may assume the base was entirely destroyed. The missiles arrived at 0430, meaning there were few casualties; most base personnel would be in quarters, which we may assume were not targeted.  We may assume the skippers and missile officers of the US destroyers had excellent satellite photographs of the base and knew all its buildings and their purposes. And we may conclude the base was destroyed.

The message is clear: You had six air bases, Now you have five. Do you care to try for four? Or fewer?

I think I would not have ordered that attack, affected as I was by the photographs of the effects of the chemical attack. Yes, it could only have been ordered by a monster deserving slaying. But there are many monsters. We could slay a dragon a month for a year, two years, but we would run out of resources before we would run out of dragons. I agree with John Quincy Adams. We do not go abroad seeking dragons to slay.  We are the friends of liberty everywhere, but we are the guardians of our own. President Trump ordered this strike in the name of national security. It took place while he was at dinner with the President of China the evening before the first formal negotiations with China.  It was only after they parted after dinner that President received the strike report and announced the strike, but the President of China must know that the attack was consummated during their otherwise uneventful dinner.

But if I were to order such an attack, it would have been as President Trump did it: massive, decisive, but limited in scope, destroying its target but with minimal collateral damage.

A few observations: the gas employed probably was not sarin, soman or any other nerve agent. You do not die gasping for air if exposed to those nerve agents. You just die.  What war gas was employed?

The symptoms resembled those of phosgene, but that war gas is so easily detected and identified that it is unlikely. I don’t know of many war gasses other than nerve agents that have the lethality reported. Wild speculation: medical personnel treated a suffocating gas with massive doses of nerve agent antidotes. Those antidotes plus the initial exposure to the suffocating agent might very well be fatal.  But this is speculation, not to be taken as a conclusion based on anything other than TV observations,

 

We wait to see what effects this will have. Good night, and God Bless America.

Was it Machiavelli or Sun Tsu?

Never do your enemy a small injury.

US launches military strike on Syria airbase

US launches military strike on Syria airbase The United States launched a military strike Thursday on an airbase in Syria, multiple U.S. officials have confi…

B-

Both I expect. And that was my first reaction.  But this was not a small injury.  It was on out of only six operational bases, and it was destroyed.

 

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

Monday, April 3, 2017

The map is not the territory.

Alfred Korzybski

If a foreign government had imposed this system of education on the United States, we would rightfully consider it an act of war.

Glenn T. Seaborg, National Commission on Education, 1983

Pretty well spent the weekend on the Writers of the Future awards ceremony events. Every year the Author Services people who run the Writers of the Future contest fly in a bunch of my colleagues so I can have dinner with them, and I always look forward to that. Of course this isn’t what Authors Services thinks they’re doing; they believe they are getting all the Writers of the Future contest judges together so be presenters at the awards ceremony, with a big book signing production before the dinner of Friday night and now they’ve got a lot of professional authors to talk writing with the contest winners, so we all spend some of Friday and Saturday talking writing to the newcomers, some of whom will indeed be our colleagues in future.

Also I spent some time with Colonel Doug Beason, now retired Chief Scientist of Space Command as well as former Commandant of Holloman where USAF does a lot of their highest tech weapons development; Doug is interested in planetary defense, a subject touched on but not analyzed in The Strategy of Technology, Possony and Pournelle, 1970, and which Doug and I have been interested in since he was a captain. We’re discussing a new anthology, similar to the early volumes of There Will Be War: stories, essays, and analyses on the theme, with introductions and/or afterwords on the stories and articles by one or both of us; that was pretty well the format of my old anthologies, and they were fairly popular. Doug has also done some best selling fiction, which is why he’s one of the WOTF judges, but our main concern is to focus some attention on planetary defense. Obviously the main threat is one or another natural events, but there’s room for other thoughts.

While I’m on that, the boffins at the Isle of Mann space outfit are taking apart A Step Farther out with a view of bringing out a revised edition; we’ll see, but I have some good feelings about this.

I also had lunch with Pat Henry, President of Dragon Con – the theme of the WOTF presentations this year was dragons. It’s been a while since I was last at DragonCon what with brain cancer and then the stroke, but I really enjoyed the Con. We discussed the logistics of my getting there again, and it’s maybe possible. We’ll see.

Anyway, Writers of the Future always enjoyably consumes a weekend every year, and I’m happy when it does.

But it’s also tax preparation time at Chaos Manor, and this year what with expenses associated with Roberta’s stroke, as well as the residual financial effects of mine, it’s going to be complicated. I’ll try to keep up here.

I’m about to go up and work on Starborn and Godsons – would Grendels, Starborn and Godsons be a better title? – so this will be truncated, and I’ll ad some more tonight after Roberta goes to bed or maybe sooner.

When I do I’ll also add to the title so you can know there’s stuff you haven’t seen. One thing about the old Front Page journal, I could add to it at any time, but there were a lot of drawbacks to that, too. Some day I’ll give some thought to journal or daybook design so it makes sense while being easier on the readers as well as the author.

Washington Post March 1:

 

Trump questions who is really behind anti-Semitic threats and vandalism

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2017/02/28/trump-questioned-who-is-really-behind-anti-semitic-threats-and-vandalism-official-says/?utm_term=.538c2ad77aab

President Trump questioned who was behind a recent spate of anti-Semitic threats and incidents during a meeting with state attorneys general on Tuesday, according to two people present.

When Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro (D) asked him about the recent threats against Jewish facilities, the president responded by condemning the incidents but then “suggested the ‘reverse’ may be true,” Shapiro said.

“I don’t know what the president meant by that statement,” Shapiro said in a statement.

Trump “made this reference that sometimes it’s the reverse” and then “used that word ‘reverse’ several times,” Joe Grace, a spokesman for Shapiro, said in a telephone interview Tuesday afternoon. Grace was relaying what Shapiro had said publicly during a phone call with reporters earlier Tuesday.

[Trump is flirting with the idea that anti-Semitic incidents are false flags — again]

D.C. Attorney General Karl A. Racine (D), who was at the meeting, confirmed Shapiro’s account and said he was disturbed by the president’s comments.

 

Note the editorial comment inserted into this “journalism”.

That followed the February 28 Post:

 

Trump is flirting with the idea that anti-Semitic incidents are false flags again

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/02/28/trump-is-reportedly-hinting-that-anti-semitic-incidents-are-false-flags-it-wouldnt-be-the-first-time/?utm_term=.a50eb68fd48f

President Trump seemed to suggest Tuesday that the recent bomb threats and vandalism at Jewish community centers and cemeteries across the country might be false flags, according to a Democratic attorney general who met with him. And Trump’s comments came the same day that one of his top advisers suggested the culprits could be Democrats.

It wouldn’t be the first time Trump went down this road.

Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro (D) told reporters Tuesday that Trump expressed horror at the situation but also appeared to suggest it might not be anti-Semitism and that it could be “the reverse,” The Post’s Mark Berman confirmed.

 

And yet, it turns out, Israeli police – with help from FBI agents – arrested in Israel an Israeli-American hacker who, it turn out, was the source of the wave of anti-Semitic attacks:

Israel arrests hacker linked to threats on US Jewish centers

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/israel-police-arrest-suspect-threats-us-jewish-targets-46323677

A 19-year-old American-Israeli Jew was arrested Thursday as the prime suspect in a wave of bomb threats against U.S. Jewish community centers, a startling turn in a case that had stoked fears of rising anti-Semitism in the United States.

The surprising arrest of the man, a hacker who holds dual Israeli and American citizenship, came after a trans-Atlantic investigation with the FBI and other international law enforcement agencies. U.S. Jewish groups welcomed the breakthrough in the case, which had drawn condemnation from President Donald Trump.

Israeli police described the suspect as a hacker, but said his motives were still unclear.

“He’s the guy who was behind the JCC threats,” police spokesman Micky Rosenfeld said, referring to the scores of anonymous threats phoned in to Jewish community centers in the U.S. over the past two months.

 

 

This isn’t the only instance of this, as Israel Shamir explains:

Eerie Prescience of Donald Trump

http://www.unz.com/ishamir/eerie-prescience-of-donald-trump/

 

I will have considerably more on the Flynn affair. One thing to remember: Flynn did more than discuss the Obama sanctions against Russia. From Shamir’s article above:

Flynn did his best (I presume on orders of Trump) to calm the Russians. He offered and procured help: the expelled diplomats needed a plane to leave on very short notice, and seats weren’t available. Flynn fixed it. Flynn told the Ambassador that Trump would roll back Obama’s punitive measures related to the expulsion. The Ambassador passed the message to Putin, and Putin, always a gentleman, refrained from tit-for-tat expulsion of the US diplomats from Moscow, as he would definitely do otherwise. Putin even invited children of the US diplomats to a Christmas event in Kremlin. So Flynn acted for the benefit of America and its diplomats, and saved the two great countries from much aggravation. He deserves a medal for his work, not a dismissal; and it is really shame that Trump could not keep him.

 

If anyone now believes that Trump was unaware of Flynn’s discussions of the sanctions with the Russian Ambassador, they must believe he acted without orders in procuring the airplane for the Russian families.

I’m going upstairs to work but this needs more analysis.

Remember:

Justice Department warned White House that Flynn could be vulnerable to Russian blackmail, officials say

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/justice-department-warned-white-house-that-flynn-could-be-vulnerable-to-russian-blackmail-officials-say/2017/02/13/fc5dab88-f228-11e6-8d72-263470bf0401_story.html?utm_term=.7246a2edff8e

The acting attorney general informed the Trump White House late last month that she believed Michael Flynn had misled senior administration officials about the nature of his communications with the Russian ambassador to the United States, and warned that the national security adviser was potentially vulnerable to Russian blackmail, current and former U.S. officials said.

The message, delivered by Sally Q. Yates and a senior career national security official to the White House counsel, was prompted by concerns that ­Flynn, when asked about his calls and texts with the ­Russian diplomat, had told Vice ­President-elect Mike Pence and others that he had not discussed the Obama administration sanctions on Russia for its interference in the 2016 election, the officials said. It is unclear what the White House counsel, Donald McGahn, did with the ­information.

Flynn resigned Monday night in the wake of revelations about his contacts with the Russian ambassador.

If anyone can explain how any of this makes sense, I welcome the attempt.

After dinner and some work on Starborn etc.

The whole obsession with Russia is either very low politics or insane: we all know that we employed all kinds of aggressive measures from Voice of America to clandestine operations against Communism, as they did against us. Their system was not successful in overthrowing the capitalist system, but intellectually it was a much nearer thing, and now there are probably more Marxists in our University system than people who have read Adam Smith or have any idea of how capitalist economics works; and even fewer have ever heard of Roepke’s Humane Economy or any of the other alternatives to both Marxism and capitalism. The American system of higher education, once the marvel of the world, is sinking into a swamp of unitary thinking intolerant of rational discussion of its core ideas, and seeking not Socrates’ examined life, but safe places where there will be no disturbing ideas or triggering of unpleasant feelings.

 

We are aware of many felonies, beginning with the unmasking of American citizens caught up in the investigations undertaken when Mr. Obama was President. Not only were American citizens’ names revealed to unauthorized personnel, but they were also leaked to the press; black letter law felonies. And as the investigations continue, more evidence appears that American citizens, associated with the Trump operations, were discussed openly at the Obama White House, and not in connection with any investigation into Russian operations in the US elections.

A favorite ploy of the left: suppose, they say, that it is true and Trump conspired with Russia to get Russian help in winning the election. What should be the consequence>

Nut, you protest, there is no evidence whatsoever that anything like that happened.

Yes, but just suppose it’s true, what should happen?

At this point the conversation could end, but if you say, well, in that case there should be an impeachment, you are now a statistic: an American who believes there ought to be a impeachment.  I have seen it happen. Of course this makes no more sense that asking what should happen if we discover that Mr. Obama eats babies for breakfast, or that Mr. Trump enjoys ragout of human teenagers, but it seems to be happening.c After all, didn’t Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin vacation together in Thailand, and surely they discussed the election, and couldn’t it have happened…  Of course there is no evidence that Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin were ever in Thailand at the same time. But it could have happened, couldn’t it?

And apparently this passes for rational discussion today.

 

 

 

The Biggest Rocket ever Designed? – The Sea Dragon Dear Doctor Pournelle,

Robert Truax’ truly brobdingnagian baby:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6e5B7EKVg48

Eighty million pounds of thrust, from a single engine first stage, delivering half a kiloton payload to LEO. NASA killed it because, well, “who needs a million pounds in LEO?”

I sometimes I wonder if there is any intelligent life in NASA. Other times, as now, of the answer I am certain.. The shuttle ate the dream.

Petronius

—

Historic Reflight Rocket Launch of Falcon 9

First reflight of an orbital class booster. This Falcon-9 has now lifted two payloads to orbit, and returned to earth to land on a tail of fire.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPEPKGEQuiU

In sixty years of lifting mass to orbit, NASA has never done this, Russia has never don this, China has never done this, ESA has never done this, the Japanese have never done this, yet American private enterprise in less than a quarter of that time has.

Perhaps there be be a lesson here as to what government might be good at, and NOT so good at?

Petronius

America can accomplish marvels when she gets her act together. Think of TVSA, Hoover Dam, the flood of ships, planes, tanks, artillery, rifles, uniforms and boots that poured forth from 1942 to 1945.  We covered this in The Strategy of Technology.  NASA was created to beat the Russians to the Moon.  NASA couldn’t do it, and General Phillips did it the military way: break the job down into sub tasks, and put a man you know is competent to do the job in charge of each. He now does the same thing. The Project is completed. In the military you disband the Army after victory. Alas, NASA created a force of civil servants who couldn’t be disbanded, so their first task was to make sure there was work for 22,000 development scientists and their non professional minions,  They did that.  Shuttle fulfilled that mission, even if the NASA budget was the same when there were half a dozen launches or none at all.   It was a remarkable job of accomplishing the mission.  Of course the mission wasn’t what the American people thought it was.

NASA wasn’t incompetent, it’s just that few understood what they were accomplishing.  But yes, if NASA had vanished and contracts were let for specific missions, I don’t doubt that we’d be mining the asteroids by now.

 

“These issues were previously swept under the rug, but taking them into account can explain the acceleration without the need for dark energy.”

<http://newatlas.com/dark-energy-existence-questioned/48708/>

—————————————

Roland Dobbins

We will discuss this another time. We really have no direct evidence for dark matter or dark energy. Neither Einstein nor Feynman had need of it, but of course they had not the observations of enormously distant galaxies..

Quantum thermodynamics

http://www.nature.com/news/battle-between-quantum-and-thermodynamic-laws-heats-up-1.21720

I don’t think it should be this hard, and anyone making it hard is probably hoping for a quantum perpetual motion machine.

(Specifically – wave function collapses are irreversible. Thermodynamic -nor information- entropy is not a measurable quantity until the wave function collapses. It should be QED from there, though the technical details are left to the dedicated analyst…)

Jim

 

Another development you should be aware of.

Afterthought:  the Books tab at the top of this page leads to a list of eBooks, which you may like if you haven’t already read them.  And the Reports tab may show you marvels you haven’t seen.  Now I’m for bed, and will work on Starborn etc. tomorrow, God willing and the creeks don’t rise.

 

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.