A long day.

View 815 Tuesday, March 11, 2014

“Transparency and the rule of law will be the touchstones of this presidency.”

President Barack Obama, January 31, 2009

If a foreign government had imposed this system of education on the United States, we would rightfully consider it an act of war.

Glenn T. Seaborg, National Commission on Education, 1983

Christians to Beirut. Alawites to the grave.

Syrian Freedom Fighters

What we have now is all we will ever have.

Conservationist motto

If you like your health plan, you can keep your health plan. Period.

Barrack Obama, famously.

I have spent the day at Kaiser, and I am exhausted, but all is reasonably well. I have had my last shot in the eardrum, and now we wait weeks to determine if it all did me any good. Meanwhile I will go out to COSTCO and get my hearing aids reprogrammed to see if that helps. I was hoping to do that today, but after the ear appointment I had an eye exam, and by the time that was over I’d had enough.

New glasses coming in a week or so. Cataracts getting worse, and that’s the next thing I need to think about. At some point I’ll have to have them done. Like most people my age, I learned that cataract operations generally leave you worse off than you were when you started. That is no longer true, as witness Larry Niven and his wife and others I know and trust, but it’s still terrifying. I’ll leave that undone for a while.

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I mentioned this in mail last night. Of the people previously without health insurance who now have that under the ACA, a large percentage – 30% is reported – are felons going into state prisons who are now, under ACA, eligible for Medicaid. As of not I have yet to hear from anyone who voted for ACA who knew that provision was in the Bill, so there is no one defending: it’s like a act of God or a hurricane, except that I don’t see how it got into the law without someone putting it there. Perhaps someone will step up and proudly claim credit, but so far no one has.

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Collected web sites worth your attention: a mixed bag.

http://www.thenation.com/article/178140/feminisms-toxic-twitter-wars

http://www.geekwire.com/2014/heres-real-bill-gates-windows-installation-debacle/

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/feb/19/troop-left-to-fend-for-themselves-after-army-was-w/

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/jan/20/a-self-licking-ice-cream-cone/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/10485281/Baby-forcibly-removed-by-caesarean-and-taken-into-care.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/15/health/the-selling-of-attention-deficit-disorder.html?_r=5&

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It’s dinner time. I have stories about the corruption of scientific publications. If you cannot trust the data you cannot falsify anything.

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Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

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Blackwater, climate change, Stonehenge, and a mixed mail bag.

Mail 814 Monday, March 10, 2014

A very mixed bag of mail and short shrift comments.

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Blackwater is still around.  After the fiascos you’re aware of, they changed their name to Xe (pronounced Zee).  Comparatively recently, they changed their name again; now they’re called Academi — http://academi.com/

—-

SITREP Academi Mercenaries Ukraine

This is to respond to the reports of Academi mercenaries in Ukraine (Blackwater changed their name to xe and then changed their name again to Academi).

Essentially, some men in sterile uniforms, who could be anyone, were running around with guns doing some unknown activity.  Certain observers shouted insults, including "Blackwater" in the same way a citizen might call a police officer a Nazi if he believed the police officer were violating his rights. 

I would, generally, think anyone dressed like this were a contractor or a special operations soldier or paramilitary operative. 

http://rt.com/op-edge/ukraine-blackwater-mercenaries-russia-794/

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2576490/Are-Blackwater-active-Ukraine-Videos-spark-talk-U-S-mercenary-outfit-deployed-Donetsk.html

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

Thank you.

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Subject: Do Not Call registry

Hi Jerry,

Did you know that a "Do Not Call" registry exists that makes it illegal for telemarketers to call you?

https://www.donotcall.gov/

Alas, it does not work for political campaign calls. The politicians want to be able to bend your ear whether you like it or not.

Eric Krug

It advises me to go to a place that tells me I must be the authorized agent for my organization or some such in order to register. I am not an organization. I am confused.

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Ukraine may have to go nuclear, says Kiev lawmaker

Jerry;

I suspect that North Korea, Pakistan and Iran as well as Israel and India understand the implications of these events. I expect that potential nuclear powers such as Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, Japan, South Korea, Argentina and Brazil are contemplating their options.

http://www.ksdk.com/story/news/nation/2014/03/10/ukraine-may-have-to-go-nuclear-says-kiev-lawmaker/6257311/

James Crawford=

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You wrote on Heinlein, Machiavelli, and conscripts:

<.>

Robert Heinlein and I debated for much of his life over conscription. His view was that any nation that needed conscripts had no right to exist. Mine was closer to Machiavelli’s. Conscription has the many benefits for a Republic, and its effects on liberty are not purely negative.  A nation needs paid professional Legions, but their existence allows them to be sent to wars we might be better off avoiding. Clinton would not have sent conscripts to the Balkans.

</>

https://www.jerrypournelle.com/chaosmanor/president-obama-says-russia-must-be-punished/

I believe Constitutional protections would be sufficient to stop Clinton from sending soldiers to the Balkans if Congress hadn’t shirked their duties through the War Powers Act, helping usher the rise of the imperial presidency over successive administrations. 

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

Perhaps. The consequences of Clinton and Albright choosing sides in five hundred year old conflict in the Balkans, and choosing to bomb the Slavs, has had and will have repercussions for a century and more, and it is still difficult to find the US national interest involved.

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Capitalism can survive climate change. this is bad

Jerry,

This is not a joke

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/06/not-even-climate-change-will-kill-off-capitalism

As long as the conditions for investment and profit remain, the system will adapt. Which is why we need a revolution

The conclusion about the need for a revolution does not follow from the data presented.

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‘After all, if we give up our obsessive reliance on the doctrine of academic freedom, we can consider more thoughtfully what is just.’

Surely this is satire?

‘After all, if we give up our obsessive reliance on the doctrine of academic freedom, we can consider more thoughtfully what is just.’

<http://www.thecrimson.com/column/the-red-line/article/2014/2/18/academic-freedom-justice/?page=single>

———-

Roland Dobbins

One would like to believe so, but I am not sure.

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Long – worth reading

http://www.economist.com/news/essays/21596796-democracy-was-most-successful-political-idea-20th-century-why-has-it-run-trouble-and-what-can-be-do

Not much new to anyone who’s been reading your web site since the 1990s…but worth looking at.

Worth reading and coming back to. I have not removed it from the mail queue and we may see it again.

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“There had to be something special about these rocks. Why else would they take them from here all the way to Stonehenge? It hasn’t been considered until now that sound might have been a factor.”

<http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/stonehenge-is-like-a-sacred-prehistoric-glockenspiel-researchers-claim-9168812.html>

——-

Roland Dobbins

I wondered on that myself when I was working on my Atlantis was the Minoan Empire novel, but I could not come up with a good explanation.

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Col Oldfield talking about the Genie Atomic air defense missile in the late 50’s

http://www2.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/nukevault/ebb332/doc04.pdf

Nice to hear reason for a change, even if long ago.

Phil

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: Water evaporation

Dear Jerry –

Paul Linsay’s letter makes some good points, but his final statement, " The same holds true for the 15 micron CO2 line in the atmosphere. It doesn’t penetrate the water more than a few microns and is consequently incapable of evaporating all that extra water into the air to cause more warming." is ill-considered.

In fact, the less the penetration, the greater the increase in evaporation. Consider the two extremes: penetration to the sea bottom and total surface absorption. In the case of total penetration, the incident energy is distributed throughout the entire body of water, increasing surface evaporation by a miniscule amount. In the second case, for a thin enough absorption layer, all of the energy is applied to boiling off that layer.

Regards,

Jim Martin

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Dear Jerry .

Paul S. Linsay , like Mark Sanicola, is entitled to his own opinions, but not his own natural history.

Two days ago you quoted his views thus :

"Regarding Russell Seitz’ comment, "Mark Sanicola claiming that CO2 does not have an absorption band " between 9 and 13 microns is pure hogwash ." Sanicola is correct and Seitz is wrong".

Whereupon he embarks on a short Gish Gallop through Google space ,connecting to an article on CO2 lasers instead of that obvious arbiter of the facts concerning CO2, the absorbtion spectrum of the atmosphere itself.

As can be seen below, despite its modest concentration CO2 takes a substantial bite out of infrared transmission all the way from 9 to 13 microns.

Inline images 1

It is really depressing to see the Dunning-Kruger linewidth of ersatz climate skeptics broaden under pressure– while water makes a dandy beam dump for CO2 lasers, a block of dry ice works too !

Russell Seitz

Fellow of the Department of Physics Harvard University

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Subject: Healthcare

Jerry,

One of the issues in medicine is that thing simply cost more than they did and the care is much better than it was 30+ years ago

when I started. As an example, when I started in medicine if your knee hurt because of arthritis, I gave you 2 aspirin 4 times a

day. We knew that could hurt you, but it made the pain more bearable. Now we send you off for an artificial knee! We’ve gone from

a cost of a few pennies per day to a cost of tens of thousands of dollars.

In my own field, when I started if you had a heart attack, I gave you nitroglycerin and spoke with your widow after it was over.

Then I begin to give you thrombolytics (clot busters) and that put my conversation off with your widow for a few years. Now I rush

you off the the cath lab, put in a drug coated stent and give you aspirin and plavix and your wife is stuck with you for decades if

you have a modicum of common sense. The care is staggeringly better!

The cost of all of this has increased and not in small way. This problem is worse in the US than anywhere else as illustrated.

<http://b-i.forbesimg.com/danmunro/files/2013/08/cost1.png>

Is universal health care part of the answer? (The below is stolen from Dan Munro)

* There are about 200 countries on planet earth – and only about 40 have a "formal" healthcare system (which includes access,

delivery and payment for citizens within a given country).

* The U.S. remains the only country (out of the 40) without "universal access/coverage."

* All of the countries in the chart above, almost all of them except the US, have universal health care (note that they don’t

all have the government paying for all of health care). The cost is less and the quality of care is mostly better.

Why don’t we have/approve of Universal Health Care in the US?

Fear – which is largely fueled by three things.

1. A false assumption (with big political support) that a system based on universal coverage is the same thing as a single

payer system. It isn’t. Germany is a great example of a healthcare system with universal coverage and multi-payer (many of which are

private insurance companies).

2. An attitude and culture of what’s loosely known as American Exceptional-ism. There is simply no other country on planet

earth that can teach us anything. Our entire raison d’etre is to be the world’s beacon of shining success – in freedom, liberty,

democracy – and really everything (but especially technology).

3. A fierce independence that has a really dark side. It took another Quora question to really help me see this one. The

question was: P

<https://www.quora.com/Positive-Rights/Why-do-many-Americans-think-that-healthcare-is-not-a-right-for-its-own-taxpaying-citizens>

positive Rights: Why do many Americans think that healthcare is not a right for its own taxpaying citizens?

<https://www.quora.com/Positive-Rights/Why-do-many-Americans-think-that-healthcare-is-not-a-right-for-its-own-taxpaying-citizens>

Here’s the #1 (395 upvotes) answer by Anon (a Brit):

The fundamental mythos of American culture, is that no matter how poor or humble your birth, you can through grit, spunk and

hard work become wealthy and prosperous.

On the face of it, and from the perspective of a class divided Europe, that seems incredibly noble and empowering. The idea

that there is that much social mobility, that anyone can forge their own destiny is a powerful part of the American psyche. When it

happens, it is an incredible thing. Something Americans can feel proud of.

However, there is a dark side to this mythos. Which is this… if anyone can win through hard work and effort, anyone who

doesn’t win, therefore deserves to be poor.

At the core of all the anti-health care reforms is the single concept "why should I pay for the healthcare of those losers."

Added together, these 3 things all contribute mightily to the runaway healthcare system we have today. Today – the NHE for USA is

$3.5T per year – and it’s growing at (arguably) ~5% per year (for as far as the eye can see).

So can we fix this in the US? Not without some open discussion. There are a LOT of painful things that need to be done. We need

Tort reform, we need to reduce the cost of medical education, we need to decide if EVERY person can have stents or artificial knees

and how do we decide.

One really, really good thing we should be doing is looking at the 39 countries who DO have universal coverage and see how they do

it. For example, the national health service in Great Britain has great public support, their costs are something like 8 times less

and their life expectancy is better. What do they do that we don’t?

You are correct, in general Kaiser does a very good job controlling costs, so does the state of Oregon. What is done at Kaiser and

in Oregon that could be applied elsewhere?

Complex issues, worthy of national discussion.

Best,

Mark

And at some point there may be a rational discussion.

Today we learned that of those getting health care insurance for the first time, some 30% are felons being enrolled in Medicaid, which was allowed by the Affordable Care Act. As of now no one has found a single person who voted for the Bill who knew that provision was in it. Surely someone knew?

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Pine trees’ smell ‘could prevent climate change really being a problem:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/02/27/natural_pine_aerosols_could_prevent_climate_change_really_being_a_problem/

“Previously unknown processes like this could help to account for the fact that the world’s temperature, following significant warming in the 1990s, has been stable for the last 15 years or so – a circumstance which climate science is struggling to assimilate.”

Interesting.

Ed

Possony used to say that the flatulence of cows was as important to global warming as CO2. He was whimsical but perhaps correct…

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The loss of work

The recent discussions about the loss of work are very topical, and I have been motivated to write as follows:

Some of the problems arising from the elimination of work are readily discerned, but boredom, lack of motivation and any need for personal responsibility are the most deadly.

Marx may have suggested that in the future, productivity would enable a day to encompass work, art, and revelry, but observation of welfare dependent communities indicates that sloth, depravity and drunkenness are more likely.

In the past, when the productive have been increasingly forced to support the otherwise starving unproductive, it has been put down to overpopulation, and solutions have been to promote mass emigration and wars.

Such solutions are nominally unacceptable today, but the pressure of circumstances may yet lead to conquests and massacres as events follow the inevitable process of cause and effect.

Progress in human affairs is organic, people take actions to maximize their survival on the basis of their particular circumstances. The ‘one solution fits all ‘ approach of Socialism has been shown to be unsuccessful, and while the purpose of Government should be to facilitate rather than to direct, the inclination to compulsion seems to be compulsive in the governing classes.

In the early days of colonization of America and Australia, the pioneers arrived with very little except some knowledge, some seeds and a few tools. It was a bit wild and lawless, but not to the point of self destruction as evidenced by the present state of these territories. Today, entitlements, health and safety, minimum wages, and constrictive regulations would prevent the establishment of any new territory with similarly limited resources.

Such a potential habitat is in North Australia where the semi-tropical climate is typical of South-east Asia.

Indonesia has long eyed this largely undeveloped territory, and refer to it from time to time as South Irian.

Indonesia has a large population that is unrestrained by a sense of entitlement and eager for development.

We should not ignore needed opportunities that may favour other less developed nations.

Best regards: Ian Macmillan

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Global Cooling Circa 1975

Jerry,

Here is one of the articles you mentioned from the 1970s that sounded the alarm about global cooling back in the 1970s:

http://denisdutton.com/newsweek_coolingworld.pdf

Best,

Rodger Morris

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Subject : love will keep us together, until Medicare…

Dr. Pournelle,

Speculation similar to yours on Captain and Tennille’s Medicare gap: http://blogs.marketwatch.com/encore/2014/01/23/did-insurance-woes-break-up-captain-tennille/

-d

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Billy the Kid

Jerry,

Some "nameless person" just edited the Wiki for William Bonney to add his mentions in Inferno and Escape from Hell.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billy_the_Kid#Literature

J

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On Global Warming

Hello Jerry,

Got this from your post a couple of days ago:

“….. but that was before the Great Global Warming Consensus that came about when global temperatures began to rise – by fractions of a degree Centigrade – in the 80’s and 90’s (up to 1997 or so) when they stabilized and may have begun to fall again. We don’t know how long that will go on, either."

According to this article, with lots of graphs, Global Warming is indubitably anthropogenic; the raw sensor has been methodically pencil-whipped anthropogenically to produce the highly publicized 20th century warming. See what you think:

http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/01/19/just-hit-the-noaa-motherlode/

Bob Ludwick

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Subject: Of course there is no sound in space

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=9WoM2bHfr48#t=0

No comment

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Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

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Crimea endgame. They’re doing it to the SAT again. Why we needed a surge in Iraq.

View 814 Sunday, March 09, 2014

“Transparency and the rule of law will be the touchstones of this presidency.”

President Barack Obama, January 31, 2009

 

If a foreign government had imposed this system of education on the United States, we would rightfully consider it an act of war.

Glenn T. Seaborg, National Commission on Education, 1983

 

Christians to Beirut. Alawites to the grave.

Syrian Freedom Fighters

 

We seem to have been bracketed by earthquakes, one in northern California and one in waters off Mexico since dinnertime today. None of that was felt here in Los Angeles, and no damage has been reported.

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Crimea is, I think, an accomplished fact: the secession will be confirmed by plebiscite, and the new government will then ally with Russia and eventually become an independent state within the Russian federation. If that sounds a bit like the way Texas became part of the United States (eventually with the assistance of the United States Army) you should not be surprised. Russians study history even if most Americans can’t be bothered.

Eastern Ukraine is a tougher nut. The further west you go in Ukraine the more people call themselves Ukrainians and the closer the language resembles Polish; going east more call themselves ethnic Russians and speak Russian. Some partition is likely over time, but there’s no hurry. From Putin’s view it is enough that the Ukraine does not join the western bloc, and remains dependent on Russia. Russia began in Kiev with the Vikings, and there is a long attachment, felt stronger among Russians for Ukraine than the other way around. Stalin, after all, conquered Ukraine and starved the peasants, gong so far as to confiscate their shovels so that they could not feed themselves. See Robert Conquest, Harvest of Sorrow, http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/52139.The_Harvest_of_Sorrow for more than you will want to know about that. The result was that many Ukrainians saw the Wehrmacht as a liberation army, and many allied with the Germans. That did not last due to Hitler’s policies.

There is a famous story of a German Wehrmacht colonel being questioned by an American intelligence officer.

The German said “Do you want to know where we lost the war?”

The American said, “Everyone knows that was Stalingrad.”

“Oh, no. It was much earlier than that. It was in Kiev, when we hoisted the Swastika rather than the Ukrainian national flag.”

Hitler being Hitler and the SS being the SS, it was probably inevitable; but it makes for an interesting speculation: had Germany come as a liberator, would the outcome of World War II have been different? But given Hitler, that seems unlikely.

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They are revising the SAT again. The results will not be good, and the revisions are in deference to the concept of ‘diversity’ rather than grade prediction, aptitude testing, tests of abilities, and in particular, in rejection of the whole notion of IQ.

The Post’s View

As the SAT changes again, colleges lose critical measures

By Editorial Board, Published: March 8

IT’S THE NEWS that will launch a thousand test-preparation courses: The College Board is once again altering the SAT, the much-criticized college admissions exam that has struggled to defend its approach to student assessment. The SAT’s writers appear to be doing two things: changing what it tests; and making it easier. There’s reason for the former, and danger in the latter.

The SAT has had a rough several years, as critics have continued to charge that performance on the exam doesn’t predict college performance well, or much better than students’ socio-economic status does. Worse from the College Board’s perspective, no doubt, is that the SAT is now a less popular college entrance exam than the ACT, which used to be common in the center of the country and very rare on the West Coast and in the Northeast.

. . .

Integrating the SAT with what’s taught in class is a fine idea, particularly since the exam’s writers gave up on their claim to measure raw aptitude years ago. But making the exam easier in order to chase the ACT isn’t. It sounds as though students could conceivably get a perfect score on the new exam and yet struggle to fully comprehend some of the articles in this newspaper. Colleges should want to know if their would-be English majors are conversant in words more challenging than “synthesis,” or that their scores reflect more than lucky bubble guesses, now that wrong answers carry no penalty.

The SAT’s fiercest critics claim that the test is practically useless, reflecting little more than students’ socio-economic status. Grades alone are better predictors of college success, they argue. But grades can be misleading, too, since their value depends on the particular expectations of individual schools and even individual teachers. Colleges are right to want a common assessment in the mix as they evaluate applicants, including top inner-city students who might have spotless transcripts but few other ways to demonstrate that they’ve achieved as much as or more than other applicants at schools with better reputations.

http://abcnews.go.com/US/top-surprising-sat/story?id=22786291

Understand, Paul Horst in a study financed by the Office of Naval Research at the University of Washington in the 1950’s developed a multivariate grade prediction program that was amazingly successful; alas, although race was not one of the variables and was not in fact collected, the program was not equal in outcomes predicted for various minority groups, according to research by other groups who did collect racial information. The grade prediction program is no longer in use.

The new program is not going to be very useful in selecting those who will and will not be successful at university, but that is no longer its purpose.

One change will be that students will no longer be penalized for wrong answers. This is entirely political. Any multiple choice examination must contain a penalty for wrong answers, else the proper strategy for taking the test is “always guess since you can’t lose.” If there is a penalty, then you need to know precisely what it is to develop a test taking strategy: of the five multiple choices, you can generally eliminate one, so that a pure guess will now have a 25% chance of being correct as opposed to 20% if you have no idea whatever. If the penalty is 0.2 then you should guess if you can eliminate one answer, and always guess if you can eliminate two (thus getting a 33% chance of getting it right by chance). With no penalty at all, never leave an answer blank. Always guess. Best if you have a source of random numbers, but even pseudorandom guesses are better than leaving any question unanswered.

The SAT has been criticized for being a test of how well you take the test rather than of any ability you may have; this will likely make it more so.

For more see http://abcnews.go.com/US/top-surprising-sat/story?id=22786291

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I note that the Syrian government has taken another important city. Israeli forces have seized a boatload of missiles destined for Gaza. There are riots and bombings in Iraq, except for in Iraqi Kurdistan where Americans are popular (so far) and there is stability, but Baghdad writ does not run there.

Bremer Mistakes & The Surge

Jerry,

General Peter Mansoor is on C-Span2’s weekend "BookTV" talking about his book "Surge". He seems to be in violent agreement with you on Bremer’s early mistakes being a major reason the Iraq insurgency developed to the point where the Surge was needed.

In the first few minutes of the talk (it’s about an hour and a half

total) he cites two Bremer decisions: To de-Baathify Iraq well beyond the top level types, far down into the levels where as often as not joining the Baath Party was simply what you had to do to get a job.

And, as you’ve often mentioned, to disband the existing Iraqi army (as opposed to the far more political Republican Guard formations.)

He continues into some detail on how we fostered the later chaos, before he starts on the main part of his talk about the actual conduct of the Surge.

The video is at

http://www.c-span.org/video/?317658-1/book-discussion-surge# .

Henry

Bremer is the most incompetent proconsul in Mesopotamia since – well actually none of the Romans were that incompetent, nor any of the Saracens. Since ever.

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Are ‘Blackwater’ now active in Ukraine? Videos spark talk that U.S. mercenary outfit has been deployed to Donetsk Jerry,

This is crazy.

First we get video of Ms. Nuland passing out cookies to Ukrainian protesters followed by the phone intercept of her decreeing who will be in the cabinet of the interim government.

Now we have reports of Blackwater mercenaries in Ukraine.

As Gov. Palin would phrase it, it appears that Obama stuffed a pair of rolled up socks down the front of his mom jenes to delude himself into thinking that he is macho then picked a fight with bear wrestling Putin.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2576490/Are-Blackwater-active-Ukraine-Videos-spark-talk-U-S-mercenary-outfit-deployed-Donetsk.html

I am mystified about what national interest was served by destabilizing Ukraine and provoking a confrontation with Russia that has long since ceased to be an existential threat.

This can not end well.

James

This is the sort of thing I rarely post here, but the rumors of Blackwater mercenaries – isn’t that company out of business – do spark an idea for a story which I am unlikely to write. Who would be paying them, and to do what?   And where in Ukraine?  They are not needed in Crimea. By either side.

Dr. Pournelle,

In addition to your observations about knowledge of European history, there seems to be a memory gap in recent and personal history. For instance, the CINC campaigned on his opposition to Iraq invasion rev 2 (on grounds of costs and lack of political interest), yet seems to be more of a hawk than his predecessor on the Ukraine and Crimea.

Hope that your hearing is continuing to return, albeit slowly.

-d

 

Putin Needs Russians

Presumably he doesn’t really understand how free enterprise works much better than Obama. He has plenty of money. all he has to do is put lots of it into child support, probably only of children who have at least 2 ethnic Russian grandparents though that would get a lot of western fingerwagging.

If you tax something you will get less of it. if you subsidize it, enough, you will get more.

That would be cheaper than wars.

One of the lessons of wars since the industrial revolution is that a nation no longer gets powerful by grabbing the territory of unfriendly neighbors if you have to keep their recalcitrant population too. Britain learned this in Ireland and India & learned the opposite lesson about the strength of friends in Australia and Canada (& despite a little carelessness in 1776 in the US too).

I once calculated that by 2050, at present rates of population growth <http://www.geographyiq.com/ranking/ranking_Population_growth_Rate_dall.htm> Yemen will have a larger population and a more aggressive population than Russia (more aggressive because poorer, more crowded and large families make young men more expendable). Not problems I wish on either.

Best Wishes

Neil Craig

I am quite certain that Mr. Putin understands family incentives and tax breaks. And not wanting recalcitrant minorities is likely to look very high in his calculations. In the case of the Crimea the benefits of annexation outweigh the costs.  In the cast of the ‘stans’, it is better to lure the Russians to Russia; the land is not really wanted. With the Ukraine itself things get complicated.  I suspect Russians are quite capable of rational analysis on these issues.

Ukraine and the Washington-New York implosion 

Hi Dr. Pournelle,

It seems to me that all the fuss over Ukraine along the New York-Washington axis is because those folks really believed that Great Power competition could be subsumed under a hazy fog of U.N. resolutions. Much of their self-importance is wrapped up in this concept; you see, if physical force has great importance, then a nation’s power largely comes from its economic heft, which means Washington has reason to be concerned about the effects of its policies on the real economy out there in flyover country, and the New York banks have reason to be concerned about the effects of their business practices on the economy at large. If peace and prosperity flow from the pen of the U.N. Secretary General, then the opinion of the great and good is all that matters.

At any rate, along comes our “partner for peace” Vladimir Putin, acting as though power grows out of the barrel of a gun, and abrogates the Budapest Memorandum—under which peace-loving Ukraine surrendered its nukes for a mess of pottage—and all of a sudden it becomes clear that the only safety to be found in this world is under the cover of superior firepower. No surprise to anyone who has been paying the least attention, but now the denizens of the East Coast Establishment can’t so easily fool themselves.

Their disbelief (why else was there no intelligence report indicating what any analyst should know would happen?) has been followed by anger at Russia, and I suspect that bargaining is currently underway. That leaves depression and acceptance—although it may take another Great Power use-of-force event to bring them to that point…

Neil

One place the current lesson will not be lost is in Pyongyang.

AND this should have gone up a week ago. Apologies

 

Dr. Pournelle,

Thanks for your historical summary. Something about the CIC’s statement that President Putin is "…on the wrong side of history…" for the annexation of the Crimea bothered me when I heard it, and I think the run-down you gave put it in focus for me. Spoken by an old-school socialist referring to a new-style imperialist, I suppose his comment is particularly ironic.

One wonders if SecState is any better versed in history than his boss, and if so, will it make a difference in the outcome. The U.S. has no real interest in the Ukraine, and has shown its lack of resolve in dealing with Syria, Egypt, Afghanistan, and sundry other "crises." I suppose that negotiating an unlikely concession from a weak position might make SecState’s job more interesting, but hardly more effective.

I visited Lviv (or Lvov, depending on the kind of Vodka one drinks) in Ukraine in 1992 under non-mysterious and otherwise uninteresting circumstances. A reforming cold warrior at the time, I enjoyed the people and the sights, but left with the impression that the country had been pretty much exhausted by repeated invasion over several generations. I agree with the suggestion you printed, that they could sell (or even 99-year lease) the area to Russia at a profit, still retain some coastline with the Black Sea, negotiate for more compensation for Chernobyl and other concessions, and come out with what is left of their dignity and growing spirit of nationalism.

As for nukes, I’ve been laboring under the belief that western aid was withheld from Ukraine until the Russians got them all out. If true, it would be one thing done right by the Clinton administration. The KGB and other formerly Soviet forces were still quite active in Ukraine while I was there, and the Crimea was given up to Ukraine almost by default as the U.S.S.R crumbled. Ukrainian military assets were abandoned at least temporarily in Western Europe, basically for lack of gas money to get home. I’m very skeptical that they could keep the old Russian weapons working, yet alone get a delivery system up to initial capability. Having nukes and not having others know about them is counterproductive, so if they’d had a development and maintenance program for the last 20-some years, I think they’d have advertised it. But before you ask, no, I’m not ready to bet the farm. Having such a weak leadership, I’d be more assured if we had an adequate foreign intelligence service, but with the concentration on the middle East and anti-terrorism for the last decade, I’m not betting any marbles there, either.

I don’t think any blast doors will be rolling in Montana, either, though, as I think the threat would be Ukraine’s against Russia. In light of our record in the Arab Spring and subsequent events, I am not so cynical to think that our President (shudder) is nuts enough to loose the hounds in the case of a possible conflict confined to eastern Europe, and I know of no entangling treaties that would make it necessary to intervene. I sincerely pray for the President’s good health, though, at least partly because I’m not too sure of the veep’s sanity.

I am glad that you are enjoying music in spite of the hearing setbacks! With hope for your full recovery,

-d

 

 

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The batteries ran down in my hearing aids. The system signals by having each aid send a pattern of gong sounds at intervals, never both at once, one ear at a time. Tonight for the first time in two weeks I heard – faintly but definitely – the gongs in my left ear. If there is some hearing left in there, they may be able to reprogram the system. Tomorrow I take the last steroid pill; Tuesday I get the final shot in the eardrum. After that I will go to COSTCO and see what they can do. As I taper off the steroids my digestion is better but alas the flatulence remains. I’ll stop Zantac after Tuesday.

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Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

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President Obama says Russia must be punished. Conscripts or paid soldiers?

View 813 Friday, March 07, 2014

 

“Transparency and the rule of law will be the touchstones of this presidency.”

President Barack Obama, January 31, 2009

 

If a foreign government had imposed this system of education on the United States, we would rightfully consider it an act of war.

Glenn T. Seaborg, National Commission on Education, 1983

 

Christians to Beirut. Alawites to the grave.

Syrian Freedom Fighters

 

If you like your health plan, you can keep your health plan. Period.

Barrack Obama, famously.

 

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Rob Reid please send me an email address.

 

Wednesday and Thursday were devoured by locusts. Actually by steroids, which I continue to take in the hope of restoring hearing in my left ear. I am also now interrupted by robot telephone calls of all kinds, to the extent that I am if a fit of fury. Anyone who uses his or her voice for a recorded message to be sent to lists the callers have not volunteered to be on should be sentenced to six weeks in the public pillory. During that time their message will be played. The public will be told when and where. The government will not supply baskets of rotten tomatoes, but volunteers may bring extra if they choose. If you are going to call me with and unwanted message, have the decency to be human so that I can tell you what I think of your message and your life choices.

Begun Thursday, continued on Friday:

I am now convinced that no one in power in this nation knows any history whatsoever. Not even the history of the Seventy Years War with Bolshevism or what we call The Cold War – which now may become Cold War One if Barrack Hussein Obama de Santa Anna has his way. The State Department has, I am told, 3000 officers with PH.D.’s. One wonders in what subjects. Certainly not in history.

Before Putin came to power, Clinton went out of his way to kick the Russians in the shins in the Balkan incidents; matters there came within minutes of a shooting engagement between a Russian commander and American forces; this in American support of the Bosnian side in a blood feud going back to the time of Suleiman the Magnificent and the Siege of Vienna in 1527.

When the Turks conquered the lower Balkans, they imposed the Koran-mandated tax on unbelievers. The tax imposed was young boys to be taken to Istanbul, forcibly converted, and raised to be Janissaries, elite infantry of the Turkish Army. Some Balkans converted to Islam and thus became tax collectors. Ethnically, the differences between Albanian, Serbian, Bosnian, and Croat are small; but under the Turks the non-Muslims paid taxes and the Muslims collected them. This created blood feuds in a land known for them for two thousand years. Many of those family feuds continued to this day.

After the collapse of the Soviet System there was a period in which there was indeed a reset in the relationship between Russia and the United States, as Herman Kahn predicted there would be. Then came the Balkan crisis in which the ancient blood feuds dating back to the 13th Century were revived. That had lasted through the conquests of the Balkans and Hungary in the reign of Suleiman the Magnificent, and continued as the Turkish controls began to recede.  Then came the first Balkan Wars with their “Bulgarian Atrocities”, and the gradual liberation of Balkan nations, the brief existence of the Christian Kingdom of Montenegro, consolidation with Serbia, World War I and the dissolution of the Austrian Empire, formation of the Kingdom of Yugoslavia, German occupation of the Balkans, communist Tito vs. Christian monarchist Draza Mihailovich, Tito’s victory and consolidation of Yugoslavia, Tito’s defection from the Soviet bloc and his attempt to play the USSR against the West to his advantage, and the breakup of Yugoslavia at his death. And during all those times the ancient blood feuds and hatreds continued. All contending sides had factions who advocated and used ethnic cleansing as a tactic.

The Russians, as Russians always do – see the origins of The Great War — took the side of the Christian Slavs. This resulted in several standoffs between US and Russian forces, one or which came within minutes of a shooting engagement. The US began bombing Serbs, and US air strikes crippled the economy of the Lower Danube for at least a year. From the Russian view, the US chose sides: against Slavs. The truth of this is not so important as the deep seated belief among many Russians that it is true.

About 100,000 people were killed in the Bosnian War.

FYI from Wikipedia:

  • 1944 to 1948: Flight and expulsion of Germans after World War II. Between 13.5 and 16.5 million Germans were expelled, evacuated or fled from Central and Eastern Europe, making this the largest single instance of ethnic cleansing in recorded history. Estimated number of those who died in the process is being debated by historians and estimated between 500,000 and 3,000,000.[44]
  • November and December 1944: more than 200,000 Danube Swabians in Yugoslavia were expelled from their homes and interned in starvation and concentration camps for the old, young and disabled. Some 30,000 workers were expelled to Russia as slave laborers for war reparations.[45]

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The President of the United States is said to have called the President of Russia to tell him that Russia must be punished. On hearing that I told Niven that it’s enough to make you wish for Jimmy Carter again; Larry said don’t waste a wish. He is right of course.

The President is also calling for the reduction of the Army to pre-WWII levels, and will punish Russia by cutting back on US cooperation with Israel in development of new anti-missile weapons (although we have a contract with Israel to co-develop them). We are reducing the size and cost of the Navy.

But Russia must be punished for its actions in the Crimea. The reactions of President Putin are not fully known.

The Washington Post has this to say:

A day after President Obama ordered sanctions over Russia’s military takeover in Crimea, Russian President Vladi­mir Putin emphatically rejected the U.S. position, saying his country could not “ignore calls for help” from ethnic Russians in Ukraine after what he has termed an illegitimate power grab there by pro-Western agitators.

Obama authorized the Treasury Department on Thursday to impose sanctions on “individuals and entities” responsible for the Russian intervention in Crimea or for “stealing the assets of the Ukrainian people.”

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Speak loudly and carry a willow switch.

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Interesting perspective.

IMHO, Obama must be getting foreign policy advice from his old chum gang friends. Nuland certainly seems to be on drugs.

http://www.shanghaidaily.com/article/article_xinhua.aspx?id=205228

James Crawford=

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http://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2014/03/06/building_a_us_army_of_125000_spartans_107123.html

The comments make much better case for how ignorant this proposal is than I could. Though, I can add one observation… this proposal doesn’t account for the necessity, and thus having the capacity, to rapidly expand the Army when needed (and, at some point, it will be needed!).

s/f

Couv

David Couvillon

Colonel, U.S. Marine Corps Reserve, Retired.; Former Governor of Wasit Province, Iraq; Righter of Wrongs; Wrong most of the time; Distinguished Expert, TV remote control; Chef de Hot Dog Excellance; Avoider of Yard Work

The kind of army you have will dictate the kind of foreign policy you have.  The 300 Spartans bought time == just enough for the Spartans and Athenians to win at Plataea. A strategy of Technology is needed; so are Seals and Marines. The United States has been able to depend on the seas as moats behind which we can mobilize, with Big Bill Knudsen’s conversion of Detroit to making cannon, tanks, airplanes, machine guns, rifles, artillery in enormous quantities to arm the conscripted soldiers being trained by the old Regulars, and the Marines held on by their teeth in the South Pacific. But the pace of war has changed, and we no longer have Detroit. We seem to have forgotten some of the lessons of Task Force Smith and Korea. As the pace speeds, the force you must fight with is the force you have at hand and can transport.

Restructuring of the armed forces of the United States is needed, but it is far more complicated than simply fixing numbers and budgets. It also involves the schools and what is taught in them. And entrusting the safety of a Republic to paid soldiers has downsides.  Robert Heinlein and I debated for much of his life over conscription. His view was that any nation that needed conscripts had no right to exist. Mine was closer to Machiavelli’s. Conscription has the many benefits for a Republic, and its effects on liberty are not purely negative.  A nation needs paid professional Legions, but their existence allows them to be sent to wars we might be better off avoiding. Clinton would not have sent conscripts to the Balkans.

Building a U.S. Army of 125,000 Spartans

By J. Furman Daniel, III

Defense cuts are coming. The only question is how much. As it has grappled with the fiscal realities of sequestration, the U.S. Army has sought to define its mission in a post-war environment. The Pentagon’s latest budget request would reduce Army end strength to 440,000. While this reduction has caused a great deal of consternation in some quarters, this is not nearly enough.

In this age of budgetary and strategic uncertainty, the best course of action is to radically transform the Army by cutting the number of active-duty personnel by more than 75% to 125,000. To compensate for the resulting downsizing, the Army should adopt a multifaceted-approach to increase the quality, flexibility, and combat power of the force. This approach would entail stricter recruiting and promotion selection standards, significantly higher pay, greater emphasis on education and training, lengthier enlistment terms, longer deployments, a no-tolerance policy for criminal and disciplinary infractions, an increased use of private contractors for non-combat roles, and a rethinking of our reliance on the National Guard and Reserve.

http://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2014/03/06/building_a_us_army_of_125000_spartans_107123.html

 

They were professionals and "a rapier among scythes" at the war’s beginning compared to the vast, conscripted armies of the continent. But they didn’t last a year due to attrition.

The thing is, where are we going to go and get involved in a war involving masses? I don’t think the writer has a grip on the whole truth but he is on to something.

William Bodin

 

It is as good a presentation of the case for a small elite military as any, and an argument that citizens ought to be aware of.

 

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Subject : On your March 2nd, 2014 post regarding Freefall Message

I was recently directed to your post on the web comic Freefall, by Mark Stanley, and while overall I was pleased at a wonderful web comic being given attention by you, there is one minor quibble in an otherwise interesting article.

In the description of Florence Ambrose, you say her genetic manipulation involves human genetic material, but I’m afraid such is not the actual case. It’s not mentioned in the comic, and not easy to find the link (produced below) if one isn’t already aware of it, but in the backstory archive, a collection of things Mr. Stanley has said on the now-defunct The Nice forum, she’s explicitly said to not contain any human genetic material due to legal considerations, although some of the modifications to make a red wolf functionally humanoid (if obviously not human) are adaptations of similar human brain structures.

http://home.comcast.net/~ccdesan/Freefall/Freefall_Backstory.html

While I appreciate that you don’t and/or can’t sit around all day doing little, I think that you should set aside some time (it’s not a short page) to at least skim the backstory. I’ve found that the extra detail, much of which is never mentioned or used in the actual comic, helps enhance my enjoyment of the story. Given the detail-heavy kind of stories that you write, I think you might also appreciate the work on the Freefall universe backstory.

Sincerely,

Dan Poore

I thought I had recommended reading the story from the beginning. My apologies for memory lapses.  Thank you for the reminder.

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Wednesday 5 March: I didn’t take blood measures yesterday but should have, and didn’t want to come upstairs and do it this morning. An hour after breakfast at which I did not take my metformin I found it was 221. It is now 115 and I have taken my morning pills including the metformin. Last night at bed time I could hear a faint scratching noise in left ear when I scraped the left hearing aid. Previously that was stone deaf since Sunday night a week ago. Can still hear that this morning, and possibly some high pitch bird calls. This may be a good sign. Hope springs eternal.

Took Zantac in hopes of controlling acid reflux caused by steroids. Did so and discovered that a side effect of steroids and Zantac is massive

Thursday, 6 March. MRI this morning. Blood sugar 147.

Friday after Breakfast: 234. Hike with Niven up the hill. Good walk, tiring but good. No change in hearing. Tapering off on steroid pills. Three today. Zantac continues. So does flatulence. Zantac plus steroids results in massive and uncontrollable flatulence.

 

Someone probably mentioned this already, but if they didn’t… You may want to know…

Corticosteroids (from the adrenal cortex) like you are taking are very different from anabolic steroids (from gonads) used by athletes (and legitimately to treat low testosterone).

John

Dang.

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Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

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