Friday, May 5, 2017

If you like your health care plan, you can keep you health care plan.

Barrack Obamas

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qpa-5JdCnmo

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/11/11/fact-check-keeping-your-health-plan/3500187/

The map is not the territory.

Alfred Korzybski

“The wealth of our middle class has been ripped from their homes and then redistributed across the entire world.”

Donald Trump

Between 1965 and 2011, the official poverty rate was essentially flat, while the government spending per person on poverty programs rose by more than 900% after inflation.

Peter Cove

Sunday, May 7, 2017

Health report. Two hours ago I would had said prospects are grim, but that turned out to be due to a number of changeable factors, and they all changed.

As of now the news is, recovering. Taking a damned long time to do it, but progress is still being made. I can still take a two mile walk (with the walker) but it leaves me so exhausted that I find good excuses not to do a report.

My head is still working, in that I can do logic and my memory is not gone. The news is depressing although not unexpected; more on that later.

I still find myself thinking politically incorrect thoughts. As for example, “Hidden Figures”, a tribute to diversity and incidentally one of the most profitable movies ever made. It’s a good movie, and deserves to be a success, but I lived through those times, and all of us did “calculations”. One of the better paying jobs in graduate school was doing calculations for various experimental projects. In my case, take a Monroe Calculator, Enter two numbers, say a two digit IQ number, followed by 6 0’s, then a performance number, say the rank order in a group if 40 people; say 9800000034. If you do everything right, you get x^2, 2xy, and y^2. Now add to that the next number, which still be an IQ, a bunch of zero’s, and rank order of performance. Keep doing that until you have entered all the data in that peculiar manner. You are on your way to calculating Pearson’s “r”, the correlation between IQ and rank order for that particular sample, Similar tricks produce mean and standard deviation for the sample of data (the experimental results). I’ve probably got some of the tricks wrong in my head; it’s been over 70 years.

In the days before electronic computers, this is how data were handled, and it was usually done by graduate students who were techies – I was required to take Calculus of Probability and various theories of Statistics in the Math Department – and while one of the most boring jobs I can describe it paid well – they paid for people who knew what they were doing, and how important it was to do it right. I cannot imagine making a career of doing that.

By the time I got to Aerospace Corporation in 1964 as Editor of Project 75, I had graduated to an Italian Olivetti mechanical/digital desk calculator. It was enormous, and everyone was astonished to see one on a stand next to my engineer’s desk; they weren’t for “professionals”. Couldn’t help that because the clearance list for Project 75 was very short, and the numbers were needed. If we’d had “calculators” I’d have been pleased as punch to make data available with all its background filed off; and yes, there’s a lot of calculation in modeling inertial guidance, or at least there was in those days. While I was at Aerospace we moved to central computers and I was able with help to get much of it done by FORTRAN, but that’s another story.

The point being that everyone welcomed computers – mostly central computing where you took you box of cards and technicians ran the program overnight, and you either got your answer or more likely a big core dump on why your program didn’t compile and you could go try to fix that. I sure could have used some “calculators” and in fact I probably could have got my answers sooner if I’d done them myself.

And I’m rambling. Not even sure why I started this, But so far as I can see, “Hidden Figures” is about women, black and white, who did work now done by any computer better than a 1620; which is admirable, and was needed, and saved other project engineers from having to do it themselves or (more likely) teach junior engineers to do it. Necessary work, important work, but Medal Of Freedom work? Not to take anything away from those who did it. It needed to be done. But a breakthrough to professional status might be an overstatement.

And this was a needless ramble, because I really can’t complain if Hollywood makes some money making a bigger deal out of the “calculators” back in the days before computers or pocket calculators; and I certainly don’t fault the people who did that any more than I would look down on the technicians and mechanics that built the space craft. General Schriever was known to carry tools forbidden to an engineer (by union rules) and get his hands dirty, but he didn’t actually build those rockets.

Another ramble: one reason for my general depression is that there’s no way to “repeal” Obamacare. Oh sure, Congress could in theory simply return the health care industry – at least 20%, one fifth of the US economy – to where it was before the Democrats rammed it through with Senate debate or much else – “You have to pass the bill to see what’s in it” – but they won’t.

Obamacare told about half the American people that they were no longer responsible for their health care bills. Millions who never had “health care insurance” were now covered, even though they wouldn’t have to be employed, or pay more than a nominal sum – a poll tax? — to get it. And indeed if they didn’t bother they’d still be able to have “insurance”; there were subsidies everywhere.

Repeal of Obamacare would take those free goodies away from millions, and the media already have the stories written, the children filmed, the sob stories already on file. They’re ready with the stories, how the Republicans ruined America.

Enough Republicans just don’t want any part of that, and refused to repeal Obamacare. They can’t bear to tell people that they’re responsible for their own medical bills. They’ve been told – and now it’s true – that someone else is responsible. To wit: you. But you don’t take to the streets or dramatically refuse to pay for someone else’s medical bills.

But that’s all right, maybe we can stiff the doctors: here’s what we’ll give you. Take it and treat them. Or else no private practice. We can do that, you know.

There’s really no way out of this. For a long time we made do with charities, charity wards in many hospitals, religious orders, physician time donations, the whole panoply of what de Tocqueville called “the associations” that did for America what governments tried with less success to do in Europe. But charity wards were charities, and everyone is entitled to the best there is, and you can’t say different; so we don’t need no stinking charities. The Constitution contains not one word granting entitlements to health care, nor power to grant them to Congress; if there’s any “right” to health care, it must come from the residual sovereignty of the states. But since we have taken from the states any control of “citizenship” like residency or paying taxes, we can’t leave this to the states and let competition take over. A long time ago, California had a residency requirement: you had to live here, I think a year, before you were eligible for welfare. New York had no such residency requirement so there developed “California Welfare”: a bus ticket to New York City and instructions on how to apply.

We ended that thirty or forty years ago. Unfair.

The whole subject is depressing. President Trump is learning why very little actually changes in Washington. Obscure judges you never heard of stop your border control orders, and appeals take – well essentially forever. Doing anything takes much hard work, and the permanent government establishment will see that little of what you order actually has any effect. Your friends turn on you because you can’t do what you promised even if it looked easy – after all, Obama did it? Why can’t I? I have a pen and a phone…

That way lies madness. Mr. Gingrich understands how difficult it is to do anything in Washington that the Establishment doesn’t want done. Mr. Trump is learning.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYQvk2_x2Nk&t=87s

What we really need is for robots to take care of people on “insurance”; perhaps we could afford that. Everyone else is responsible for his own medical bills. Perhaps he could actually buy insurance against major crises? Or perhaps robots will so improve the economy we can afford to tell people they are no longer responsible for their medical bills? But until then, we can enslave robots. Not so much doctors and nurses.

For Mr. Gingrich’s much more hopeful view, see http://www.gingrichproductions.com/2017/0

Jerry

I hate to bother you but it’s a short read:

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2017/05/what-you-need-to-know-about-climate-in-one-chart.php

Ed

Good chart. The upshot is, as always, we still don’t know, Given the rise if CO2 and methane (CH4) it would be well to invest in techniques for removing excesses of those, not by curtailing industry and impoverishing ourselves. What eats methane? We know what eats CO2.

http://jneilschulman.rationalreview.com/2017/05/jneilcare/

“The issue the Democrats, liberals, and progressives all use against the “Repeal and Replace” of the Affordable Care Act (ObamaCare) is the disposition of those with preexisting conditions. The “heartless” Republicans want to kill off the poor because they oppose (they really don’t oppose it) Universal Socialized Medicine.
“So let’s remove everyone with a preexisting condition from the health insurance market by putting them all on Medicare.
“Yes, this is single-payer. But it’s not universal single-payer. It limits those who are single-payer clients to those who are currently breaking the back of the health-insurance market.
“The Affordable Care Act — by legally requiring those with preexisting medical conditions to be included in the insurance pool — denies the purpose and nature of insurance, as a market product, itself.
“Insurance, by definition, is based on risk of something happening in the future, a happening to which there can be an actuarial projection.
“Someone with a preexisting medical condition is to health insurance precisely like buying automobile liability insurance after you’ve already crashed. It’s a past, not future, event.
“Take these people out of the insurance market by putting them all on Medicare and everyone else can participate in a market for health insurance.
“It’s not a libertarian solution. It is, however, a solution that limits government and preserves a free-market in health insurance for everyone else.
“It’s a conservative or Minarchist solution.”

SpaceX begs government for more money

Leaving space policy to the industrialists will leave us with more “infrastructure spending” that merely lines their pockets.

https://www.inverse.com/article/31141-spacex-will-launch-internet-satellites-2019

: Random contemplation about automated vehicles

This seems to be the anniversary of an interesting event. The officers charged with beating Rodney King were acquitted. So the black community in LA behaved like a collection of depraved babies and rioted. As the rioting continued Larry Tarvin was severely beaten and Reginald Denny was damn near killed. While it is material to history that the man who saved Denny was a black who had actually grown up and took responsibility to save his fellow human it’s not material to this discussion. What is material is that both drivers stopped their vehicles in the middle of a riot. This does not seem to be a particularly safe activity.

Methinks that I will argue with the law as a live woman in her 8th decade rather than become a lump of statistic. If I ever find myself in that situation stopping or even slowing down is about the last thing I will do, chiefly because stopping might well BE the last thing I ever do.

With that background we have the recent wave of vehicles with automated driver assists. They will stop the vehicle if a “collision” is likely even with a lump of animated protoplasm.

Contemplate this a few moments.

Suppose my attitude becomes more generalized. (NC’s House has just formally made it legal to drive through protestors trying to hijack a road taking motorists who run up to them and stop hostage. That’s kidnapping, you know.) So we have vehicles on the road with drivers motivated, i.e. not dumb enough to stop, to push on through. Some of them have automatic stop that overrides the driver.

Some of them don’t. Guess who is going to get hurt in each case. If you were a rioter would you go after a 1990s beater or a brand new Tesla? I think I will put off any automated assist sort of vehicle purchase for awhile. They are as vulnerable to deadly attacks as the Android OS.

{o.o} (Ack to Michael Yon for the concept.)

Recovery

Dr. Pournelle,
I fear your recovery is proceeding more slowly than you (or your family, friends, and fans would wish). You have my best thoughts and prayers for a speedy recovery.
Sincerely,
Douglas Lewis

I will let this stand for many like it: thanks for the kind word and good wishes, and regrets that it is taking so long. I do think recovery is happening.

: Leftist Lunacy

The Democrats keep showing whey they can’t be trusted to govern:

<.>

“Na Na Na Na, Hey Hey Hey, Goodbye,” Democrats sang at Republicans. A few Democrats even waved goodbye.

The implication was obvious: Democrats believed many Republicans had just cost themselves their political careers by voting for an overhaul of Obamacare.

And the DC political class wonders why people hate them.

I understand that Democrats not only didn’t like the way this bill was passed — without any estimates on what it might cost or how many people might lose coverage as a result — but also believed the policies contained in it would leave the country and its people considerably worse off.

That is a worthy conversation to have. But, that’s not what Democrats were doing. Instead, they were jeering and mocking their colleagues.

</>

http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/04/politics/healthcare-democrats-booing-na-na-na-good-bye-singing/index.html

◊ ◊ ◊ ◊ ◊

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

It’s always better if you can give millions of people free stuff that other people must pay for. It always makes you feel much better.

Middle East Oil

“Events are moving rapidly to a possible new war involving Israel, the United States, Syria and Russia. Were it to take place, I honestly hope not, it would be yet another stupid war over oil. Only this oil war somehow feels far more dangerous than the US war against Iraq or Libya or previous oil wars. It’s about the part of Syria named the Golan Heights.”

http://journal-neo.org/2017/03/30/golan-heights-israel-oil-and-trump/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/middle_east/is-there-really-more-oil-in-the-golan-heights-than-is-saudi-arabia/

L

I wonder if they can come to a deal.

Clinton Email Scandal….AGAIN

This Clinton email scandal continues!

<.>

“Somehow, her emails were being forwarded to Anthony Weiner, including classified information,” Comey said, adding later, “His then-spouse Huma Abedin appears to have had a regular practice of forwarding emails to him for him to print out for her so she could deliver them to the secretary of state.”

The two were investigated for possible mishandling of classified material, but the FBI ultimately dropped the matter without seeking charges because they could not show either of them intended to violate the law, Comey said.

“Really the central problem we had with the whole email investigation was proving people… had some sense they were doing something unlawful.

That was our burden and we were unable to meet it,’’ he said.

</>

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/fbi-director-james-comey-begins-testimony-to-congress/2017/05/03/9e3244bc-3006-11e7-9534-00e4656c22aa_story.html

Somehow? That’s amusing because when emails “get forwarded”, it is not some mysterious force that does it. I press the forward button, enter an address, and hit send. Is there another way this happens?

And that last part where they can’t prove that people knew they were mishandling classified information? You mean to tell me they did not attend briefings and sign documents on how to properly handle classified information? I know I did those things. And, as affairs occurred, I had to sign further documentation reminding me of my obligations and telling me that I could not speak about certain matters for a certain period of time and that I had to submit any book I wrote to the US government for approval — whether or not it contained anything related — else the royalties would be seized by the United States government. They were quite specific and quite controlling and I didn’t have clearance nearly as high as what these people had.

This all seems like BS to me. I believe if I had done what they had done, I believe I would have been punished in some way and — at the very least — I believe I’d be blacklisted from maintaining or receiving a security clearance without a waiver. Maybe my perception was off and I believed the briefings more than I should have, but that was my impression.

◊ ◊ ◊ ◊ ◊

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

Surprise!

coming apart?

Dear Mr. Pournelle,
An interesting column in today’s (London) Times:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/democrats-must-reach-out-to-small-town-usa-txvthrnlg
While the article focuses on Democrats, I think the point of concern is broader. Paragraphs that caught my attention:
“Now online media can go where it chooses and it generally chooses to be in New York or Seattle or some place where metrosexuals can gather and compare beards. Although we were told at the start of the internet boom that we would be free to work anywhere, the American experience has been the opposite: the jobs are more concentrated than ever before.
Politico’s interest was in the newspaper industry because of the political impact of all the nation’s reporters living in Democratic-voting areas. However, the broken model of America’s political economy is a wider phenomenon. Anything modern and zingy and potentially profitable is increasingly done in American cities and predominantly the cities near the coasts. The rest of the country gets the dregs.
This is not sustainable if America is to rediscover its unity in the post-Trump world.”
Yours,
Allan E. Johnson

So long as you have promised – contracted for – more entitlements than you can possibly collect enough to pay for, you may have a problem. Depressing, isn’t it? We have sown the wind for decades. Now we reap.

Bleeding Kansas

Dr Pournelle 

The current situation in the country reminds me of the accounts of Bleeding Kansas in 1854. Kansas had vote fraud, unconstitutional government, and gangs brought in from Missouri and New England. Seven years after the bleeding started in Kansas, it spread to the rest of the country. 

I wonder when the current violence in California will spread to the rest of the country. 

Live long and prosper 

h lynn keith

I wonder: do they even teach “Bleeding Kansas” in schools any longer?

Hi Jerry,

Don’t ever see much if anything about fusion in the MSM. In my mind it’s the only viable option to replace oil and gas. From the The Engineer (UK):

Switch flipped on UK’s newest tokamak fusion reactor

Known as the ST40, the reactor represents the third of five stages in the company’s plan to deliver fusion energy to the grid by 2030. Controlled fusion requires temperatures in excess of 100m°C, but this has never been achieved by a privately funded company. To reach that goal, Tokamak Energy is focusing on compact, spherical tokamak reactors, as it believes they are quicker to develop and offer the quickest route to commercial fusion power.

“Today is an important day for fusion energy development in the UK, and the world,” said Dr David Kingham, CEO of Tokamak Energy. “We are unveiling the first world-class controlled fusion device to have been designed, built and operated by a private venture. The ST40 is a machine that will show fusion temperatures – 100 million degrees – are possible in compact, cost-effective reactors. This will allow fusion power to be achieved in years, not decades.

More w/video: https://www.theengineer.co.uk/switch-flipped-on-uks-newest-tokamak-fusion-reactor/

-Blair S.

That could be the best news yet: the only problem we really have is an energy problem, as I pointed out fifty rears ago. With enough energy I can solve or control almost any problem

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

Monday, April 24, 2017

The map is not the thing mapped.

Eric Temple Bell

The map is not the territory.

Alfred Korzybski

Between 1965 and 2011, the official poverty rate was essentially flat, while the government spending per person on poverty programs rose by more than 900% after inflation.

Peter Cove

If a foreign government had imposed this system of education on the United States, we would rightfully consider it an act of war.

Glenn T. Seaborg, National Commission on Education, 1983

Last week started well. I got the taxes off Monday, walking down the to post office perhaps a half mile away, figuring that the walk would do me good. It even seemed to. But from the moment I got back to the house, things started going downhill. My cold got worse. My get up and go got up and went. I had little to no interest in anything, my balance got worse, and the best description of my mood was malaise. It got progressively worse. I managed enough energy to get through a couple of chapters of Godson and Starborn or whatever — the book Steve Barnes, Larry Niven, and I are writing – and I think I made decent improvements, but after our story conference and lunch Wednesday I settled back into malaise, and didn’t some out until this morning. I still don’t have a lot of energy, but at least I feel like doing something.

I’m typing worse than usual. But at least I’m typing. And I’ve got up the energy to arrange to see my primary physician next Thursday, and arrange for Mike Galloway to drive me in my car, and I’ll get bank work done and we’ll have a decent lunch I’m actually looking forward to. So I can hope this was just an episode that’s now over. With luck and the grace of God I’m through the worst of this and I won’t slip back into the fit of malaise. Wish me luck. Just noticed I wrote wish me muck; I’ve corrected it, but I hope it wasn’t a portent…

When Mr. Obama famously said “If you like your health care plan, you can keep your health care plan”, he clearly made a false statement. Since it is unlikely he had any idea of the details of the scheme that eventually became law under the name “Obamacare”, he may well have believed it, but that is not what happened.

The usual Republican statement is that “millions of Americans have lost their health care.” Pro Obamacare organizations, including some that claim to be “fact checking”. Say

It’s true that insurance companies discontinued health plans that had covered millions of people who had bought them directly rather than through an employer. That’s because those plans didn’t meet the coverage standards of the new law.

But those policyholders didn’t lose the ability to have insurance. In most cases, insurers offered them an alternative plan, though there were some instances of companies exiting the individual market altogether.

Note what was said here: they lost their health care plan, because it did not meet the standards of the new law, not because they were not satisfied with their plan. Obamacare does not care about your satisfaction, or needs: it sets standards witch your health insurance must meet or you are not permitted to purchase it. Whether this was known to Mr. Obama at the time of his statement may be questioned, but the fact that Obamacare would set standards surely was. It would not take a great deal of intelligence to infer that if you set standards in law – such as that your health care plan must offer abortion and contraceptive services, no matter your sex or age – some people would not be allowed to keep their plans and would not want to pay for those “standards” – but in the rush to get Obamacare passed before the Democrats lost control of the Senate to an incoming new Senate, perhaps that can be excused.

The problem with repealing Obamacare is that “millions now have healthcare insurance who never had it before.” Not only do they have “insurance” but it meets the standards of Obamacare, offering services that many never had before.

Of course most of these newcomers do not have insurance under any same definition of the word. They have assured medical care, not insurance; and they can afford it because they are given massive subsidies. This is not insurance, it is free stuff; and if you try to take it away they will make a big fuss.

Insurance is simple: a group of people get together and agree to pay each other’s medical bills. They pay premiums, which, collectively add up to more than they are going to spend on medical services; in other words, it’s a money losing proposition for most of them. But among the insured will be some who will suffer catastrophes, medical emergencies costing more than they could possibly have saved up for and which would have left them destitute. Proper insurance deals with those unforeseen matters; you have paid out more in premiums (or membership dues) than you would have spent if you merely took care of those yourself, but you are spared the catastrophes. Most of the others in your association have paid for your problems, so you don’t have to. On the other hand, you have contributed to paying off other people’s debts.

This is how insurance works, and it has proved effective over the years. The primary assumption is that you re responsible for paying your medical bills, but you have ganged up with others who will help you pay if they get too big for you.

And there’s the rub: you and your associates are responsible for your medical expenses. The rest of us are not. If you get sick, I have no obligation to pay your doctor for you, nor you to pay mine. But under Obamacare, many, who thanks to the subsidies, have no obligation to pay for any medical expenses, their own or mine or anyone else’s. They will not easily give up the right to “insurance” with obligations: to subsidies that allow someone else to be obliged to pay for their medical expenses.

For an enormously detailed and mostly correct exposition on all this, see

http://www.discoverthenetworks.org/viewSubCategory.asp?id=1957

.

The point is that it is not easy to repeal Obamacare, because there are a very many people who get free stuff from it, and they will not willingly give it up.

One “solution” is to do what Obama and Nancy Pelosi obviously wanted to do: socialize medicine as it is socialized in many other countries. The government pays your medical expenses. We all insure each other. Each of us pay something more than we would have paid under the old “pay your own” system many of us grew up under, and the obligation to pay for medical service no longer rests with the individual or family: your medical expenses are my obligation, as mine are yours.

Of course this leads to questions: who determines what will be paid? Will all doctors be paid the same amount? What of those who say you’re not paying enough and want to opt out? Do we enslave them? Do we allow them to make private deals with those who can pay? Perhaps we say “You are compelled to put a certain percentage of your time into general service, but you may sell the rest.” Now do we pay Inspectors – presumably physicians themselves – to determine whether our part time general service physicians are giving their best services to the general public, or are they holding something in reserve for those who pay? We’ll have to fix that! Or perhaps when you graduate from medical school you must spend a certain number of years in general service. That would work, wouldn’t it?

This is not likely in the minds of any of the Republicans who are planning schemes to replace Obamacare. On the other hand, simply repealing Obamacare and going back to what we had before leaves some number of “insured” who never had “Insurance” before now without “insurance”, and a media to tell their painful stories with maximum pathos.

Former Speaker Newt Gingrich has much to say on this:

Governing Majorities and Health Reform: Part One

http://www.gingrichproductions.com/2017/04/governing-majorities-and-health-reform-part-one/?utm_source=Gingrich+Productions+List&utm_campaign=2836a07ec9-healthreform_2017_04_21&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_bd29bdc370-2836a07ec9-51726965

Fox News

 

April 21, 2017
Newt Gingrich

To receive Newt’s weekly newsletters, click here.

Republicans are struggling with the repeal and replacement of Obamacare.

They should be.

Health is a matter of life and death. People pay very personal attention to it. In the end, regular people skip past the macro policies that shape the nation and ask, “what about me?”

In our immediate network of family and friends, Callista and I know an older woman with a history of breast cancer who has had both hips replaced, a middle-aged woman taking anti-rejection medicine for a recent liver transplant, a young woman (30) diagnosed with breast cancer, a dear friend suffering from a rare disease in which his red blood cells no longer carry oxygen, and the list goes on.

In every case, the individuals and their family and friends will ask: How does this health care bill affect me? Will I be better or worse off? Their natural bias is against change, because they have adjusted to the current system and know how they are getting care today.

I am not arguing against repealing and replacing Obamacare. It is a failing system that will ultimately cripple the country and leave millions without insurance coverage. I am suggesting that its replacement must be carefully thought out. Every House and Senate Republican who deals with this issue, along with the leaders in the Executive Branch, will be asked a lot more questions about this bill than they would about other legislation. They must be able to answer those questions. [snip]

The entire essay is worth your consideration.

I recently came across two numbers about AIDS and HIV. First, the annual cost of treatment for HIV is $20,000 a year. This is required: skimp on it, and the HIV will blossom into full fledged AIDS, and your annual treatment cost will rise greatly until you are dead. The 20 grand a year will keep you functioning for decades.

I presume but do not know that the $20,000 a year goes mostly for the drug “cocktail” that mitigates the HIV effects, and it is paid for by “insurance”, or in some cases by the government; I doubt that few individuals pay or are expected to pay for their expensive cocktails. This will last for at least twenty years.

The second number I learned is that there are about 50,000 new cases of HIV per year. If you multiply that by 20,000, the cost becomes $1Billion for each succeeding year. This will last for decades.

 

 

https://www.cdc.gov/hiv/statistics/overview/ataglance.html

MSM means men who have sex with men.

It is not politically correct to draw any conclusions about such statistics, and probably racist, sexist, and homophobic as well.

A long time ago I said, in Galaxy, that I thought the federal money invested in the National Science Foundation to make grants was about the best tax money ever spent. The was true under Kennedy, Nixon, Carter, Reagan, and possibly under Johnson, but after Reagan it became politicized, and I cannot make that statement any longer. Still, my lifetime career has been in favor of science, and I have always encouraged investment in the national labs, both civilian and military, and most of the universities. It is now no longer true at all, and those who favor science – as opposed to political machinations need to stop and start over.

As to the March for Science, held last “Earth day”, I’m not always fond of this source, but for this it will do:

‘March for Science’ invokes God, Hitler, Gay Marriage, Racism, Sexism – Blames GOP for making climate worse

http://www.climatedepot.com/2017/04/24/march-for-science-invokes-god-hitler-gay-marriage-colonialism-racism-sexism-blames-gop-for-making-climate-worse/

By: Marc Morano – Climate DepotApril 24, 2017 2:11 PM with 0 comments

Climate Depot’s Round Up of Coverage of the alleged ‘March For Science’

Climate Depot’s Marc Morano: “Having spent the day in DC on April 22 interviewing the marchers, it struck me about how this is first and foremost a march for endless government funding, ideology and in support of a no dissent policy. (Another new study gives plenty of reason to dissent: New Climate Study Calls EPA’s Labeling Of CO2 A Pollutant ‘Totally False’) The Trump administration can help make science great again by resisting these pay up and shut up demands for taxpayer research money.” See: Bloomberg News: Obama ‘stashed’ $77 billion in ‘climate money’ across agencies to elude budget cuts

Watch: Princeton Physicist Dr. Will Happer criticizes ‘March for Science’: ‘It is sort of a religious belief for them’ – Dr. Will Happer on Fox News: Asked about more government funded science?  Happer: “We’ve had 8 years of very highly politicized so-called research on climate. It’s not what most of us would recognize as real scientific research. Something where the outcome was demanded before the funding was provided. We should tend to real environmental problems and fix them and stop chasing these phantom problems that are really just religious dogma.”

Watch CNN Debate: Bill Nye blows gasket when a real scientist Dr. Will Happer schools him on ‘climate change’

You can no longer be in favor of science; those causes have been politicized, supporting them is evil. I make no doubt that there are still dedicated true scientists remaining in the universities, but they keep a low profile now; the noise is all made by those who claim to speak in the name of science, just as many other academic organizations are dominated by political agents who claim to advocate scholarship, but seem to favor much that has no scholarly purpose at all. I wish that were no longer true; but academia has become a political fighting ground, and true science is neglected or even despised.

Positive News about Donald Trump

President Trump has some good points that nobody speaks of and I find these points worth considering:

<.>

President Trump has saved taxpayers more than $86 billion in regulatory costs during his first three months in the White House, according to a new study from a conservative group.

The American Action Forum (AAF) points to several Obama-era regulations that Trump has either rolled back on his own or with the help of Republican lawmakers using the Congressional Review Act (CRA).

This includes the Education Department’s school accountability standards, the Environmental Protection Agency’s waters of the United States rule and the so-called “blacklisting” rule for government contractors.

</>

http://thehill.com/regulation/329720-study-trump-has-eliminated-86b-in-regs

$86B is a success this president can take most of the credit for; the next is harder to associate with him but I’m sure he’ll take credit for it and most will believe it:

<.>

The number of out-of-work people collecting unemployment checks fell to a 17-year low in April, underscoring the strongest U.S. labor market in years.

</>

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/number-of-people-collecting-unemployment-checks-hits-17-year-low-jobless-claims-show-2017-04-20

Unemployment is not infinite; this could simply mean people are no longer eligible. Further, unemployment rates are cooked numbers and anyone who knows the meaning of “U3” and “U6” knows this. Neither number is accurate since people stop being counted at a certain point.

Labor force participation rate remains at 63% despite the cooked numbers and the rosy picture the media tries to create.

Even if President Trump governs over real improvement, we would need to consider the realities of the business cycle and place much of that credit with the previous president since this cycle lasts 7-11 years before any changes actually manifest in the economy. It seems the media assumes most people slept or were absent when the teacher mentioned this in their high school civics or American government courses.

◊ ◊ ◊ ◊ ◊

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

Climate Science/Religion

Jerry,

Climate Science/Religion needs it’s Martin Luther to guide it away from Religion and back to Science.

There seem to be many parallels between today’s Climate Modelers and Luther’s Catholic Church. One of the more obvious is the Modelers selling of indulgences (models that produce the results desired by the worshipers of Global Warming/Climate Change.) in return for Government Grants that allow a continuing rush away from Scientific Enquiry.

If we are to return to a rational view of our challenges and adopt solutions that minimize economic damage, we must STOP shouting down those whose views do not agree with ours and engage in free and open debate.

Bob Holmes

 

Scott Adams: ‘Climate scientists probably believe they have convinced about half of the public to their side using their graphs and logic and facts. That’s not the case. They convinced half the public by using fear persuasion disguised as facts and logic.’

<http://blog.dilbert.com/post/159792630956>

—————————————

Roland Dobbins

Middle East Countries Venturing Into Space

Space May Be the Next Frontier for Crude Oil Giants:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-23/space-the-final-frontier-seen-for-earth-s-crude-oil-giants
Countries like the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are developing space programs and investing in nascent private space commodity initiatives, said Tom James, a partner at energy consultant Navitas Resources. “Water is the new oil of space,” said James.
If the United States doesn’t establish a strong space presence, other nations will — and they might be unfriendly to the United States. It’s a shame that instead of spending money on a good space program ourselves, we spent money on buying oil, and now that money will be used so other countries can get into space.
Terrier1

Take the high ground, boy, or they’ll kick hell out of you in the valley.

Bloomberg on Aspen Pharmacare

Dear Mr. Pournelle,
I would like to discuss health care courteously; and outside any liberal echo chamber, in hopes that we might learn something from each other. I am beginning to think that at present people who care about our country are so polarized this may not be possible.
However, I’ve been continuing to search for reports which could indicate whether Aspen Pharmacare’s increases in the price of cancer medications were in support of new, improved medications. I have found no such indications. The most complete report I’ve found so far is in Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-30/old-cancer-drug-gets-1-000-plus-price-hike-in-frugal-u-k
“The chemotherapy known as busulfan is more than six decades old, and part of doctors’ standard arsenal against leukemia. It’s not scarce, and by all accounts, it should be dirt cheap. Instead, its price has soared like that of a prized antique.”
Aspen Pharmacare does not have the reputation of a villain. It seems to have been instrumental in providing anti-HIV medications in Africa. However, as best I can tell, Aspen purchased the rights to five existing anti-cancer medications from GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), and then raised the prices. No new or improved medications have been mentioned. Apparently, existing British and European laws attempting to control drug prices do not apply reliably to generics, on the assumption that market competition would handle this. However, it is also apparently possible to gain monopolistic control of a generic medication, especially if the market for it is small. In those circumstances no real market competition exists.
To my mind, this is interesting because it offers a real-world test of the hypothesis that markets will suffice to produce an optimal allocation of medical resources. But that, as I understand, assumes active competition and a rough parity between buyer and seller.
I do *NOT* maintain that government management will solve this problem. I don’t think there is any easy solution: as Mr. Trump has observed, health care is complicated. Beyond that, as I’ve said before, I don’t believe we humans are much good at producing stable solutions. To anything.
But I do think honest discussion might help us find better partial and temporary solutions. And in human societies that’s usually the best we can do. As I think it was Poul Anderson observed, buying time is always a good investment.
Yours,
Allan E. Johnson

What am I to say? I defend free markets as being, generally much more efficient than directed economies. Freedom implies being free to do the “wrong” thing. The remedy is generally not simply to force the “right” thing, and the motives whop do the compelling are often no more clear or pure than those of the compelled. I do suspect that FDA regulations often aid the monopolist, since for small markets there simply is no incentive to invest in certifying a generic which can then be sold by others as well as you. Medical trials are expensive and often boring. I understand the revulsion people have toward those who grind the faces of the helpless; but unless they actually break laws, compulsion to force “the right thing” often has even worse consequences. The Almighty can rely on His angels to have the purest of motives, but He is fully aware that humans are able to defy His will. Alas, that often applies to those sent to remedy things.

I do not know enough to contribute much to an honest discussion. In particular I have heard nothing I remember Aspen has said in their own defense. I do understand that their monopoly is created by government regulations which are said to be needless.

Small business exemptions

“If you want more people working, make it simpler to hire them. Exempt more small businesses from regulations.”
The first sentence was perfect, the second was truly horrible.
Why would a small business get an exemption denied a large one?
I’m a small businessman and I survive by being more efficient in my niche than large businesses. But if a large business could better my efficiency why in the Jesus H. Christ would you want to subsidize an inefficient me?

Fred Zinkhofer

I print this, but since I do not seem to understand you, I cannot reply. I know there are regulations that apply to large businesses, but not to small ones; and I know that there are businesses that would expand were it not for those regulations. It seems reasonable to me to make the exemptions larger; if not double, then perhaps half again.

I do not understand your reference to subsidies. I certainly would neither compel nor forbid you to expand your business.

Oh this is rich, kinda reminds me of the “manhunt” for the recent “Facebook killer”. A fast food worker identified him before he shot himself. Now CIA and FBI are on a “manhunt”‘ problem is they don’t know who they’re hunting for:

<.>

CBS News has learned that a manhunt is underway for a traitor inside the Central Intelligence Agency.

The CIA and FBI are conducting a joint investigation into one of the worst security breaches in CIA history, which exposed thousands of top-secret documents that described CIA tools used to penetrate smartphones, smart televisions and computer systems.

Sources familiar with the investigation say it is looking for an insider — either a CIA employee or contractor — who had physical access to the material. The agency has not said publicly when the material was taken or how it was stolen.

Much of the material was classified and stored in a highly secure section of the intelligence agency, but sources say hundreds of people would have had access to the material. Investigators are going through those names.

</>

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cia-fbi-on-manhunt-for-leaker-who-gave-top-secret-documents-to-wikileaks/

They do not even know what classification of worker they seek and they’re going through “hundreds” of names? Something this important didn’t require signatures, logs, etc? Who is in charge of security over at CIA and where did they go to school to learn how to do it?

If something like this happened in the military, a chain of custody, logs, etc. would quickly identify the person. You notice PFC Manning remains incarcerated in a US Army disciplinary barracks while Edward Snowden drinks vodka and harasses the United States government as he continues to remain out of their grasp. Can we expect any less in this instance?

I have more comments, but what’s the point? Clearly security protocols at CIA remain in desperate need of review and restructuring.

◊ ◊ ◊ ◊ ◊

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

Ancient Stone Carvings Confirm How Comet Struck Earth in 10,950BC, Sparking the Rise of Civilizations.

<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2017/04/21/ancient-stone-carvings-confirm-comet-struck-earth-10950bc-wiping/>

—————————————

Roland Dobbins

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

Monday, April 17, 2017

Emancipation Day (Celebrated)

The map is not the territory.

Alfred Korzybski

“

If a foreign government had imposed this system of education on the United States, we would rightfully consider it an act of war.

Glenn T. Seaborg, National Commission on Education, 1983

“Deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed.”

Printed the taxes, wrote the checks, packed them all in envelopes. And decided to walk down to the Post Office to see them go into the slot. My tax program told me I didn’t need to do that; the taxes had to be postmarked on April 18, Monday the 17^th being the day on which we celebrate Emancipation Day; a day I had never heard of before, and still know little about. The Post Office was busy. I saw mailmen on my walk, and remembered that I read the Wall Street Journal this morning even though it’s not usually printed on holidays. Everyone seemed to going to work as usual, I know of no one who actually got a holiday, but we did get an extra day to mail in our taxes. Very odd.

Since I’m still feeling plain lousy from this cold I was happy to take the day off, and I don’t feel much like working on fiction; but I have interesting mail on a variety of subjects, and from the subdued – well, mostly subdued – hysteria in the news anchors’ voices, this may be the last journal I ever write. Brink of War, they’re saying. Even President Putin is saying that the two most dangerous men on the planet are Kim Jong Un and President Donald Trump, we’re very close to nuclear war, and of the two the more dangerous is the President of the United States. Interesting.

I must admit I would sleep a bit better if General Curtis LeMay and the SAC he built were still in action. General LeMay adopted “Peace is our Profession” as the motto of the forces he commanded, and he meant it; but if we were ever in a war he planned to win it with the fewest American casualties. If I were a younger man I might well be in the mountains, or up at Rogue River, but the days when I was an editor of Survive Magazine are gone. It was exhausting just to walk a mile or so to the Post Office on level ground.

It is not even amusing to plan a war with North Korea, since the only way to preserve a great part of the South Korean population is to eradicate a large fragment of the population in the southern part of North Korea. They have divisions of fairly good artillery along the border, and Seoul is within their range. And when I say a lot of artillery, I mean massive amounts of it, with ammunition; we know where most of it is, but we haven’t enough counter battery fire, even if we strike preemptively. And unwanted casualties will be high no matter what we do.

I’m glad I’m not playing that war game.

Of course the likelihood is that it will all go away, a few billions will change hands, and something surprising will happen.

Meanwhile I’ll try to recover from this pesky crud

MIT expert claims latest chemical weapons attack in Syria was staged

A leading weapons academic has claimed that the Khan Sheikhoun nerve agent attack in Syria was staged, raising questions about who was responsible.

Theodore Postol, a professor emeritus at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), issued a series of three reports in response to the White House’s finding that Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad perpetrated the attack on 4 April.

He concluded that the US government’s report does not provide any “concrete” evidence that Assad was responsible, adding it was more likely that the attack was perpetrated by players on the ground.

Postol said: “I have reviewed the [White House’s] document carefully, and I believe it can be shown, without doubt, that the document does not provide any evidence whatsoever that the US government has concrete knowledge that the government of Syria was the source of the chemical attack in Khan Sheikhoun, Syria at roughly 6am to 7am on 4 April, 2017.

More: https://www.yahoo.com/news/mit-expert-claims-latest-chemical-100819428.html

FYI: I tried to view the original article on IBT but was deluged with pop-ups.

Like you I thought this Syria chemical attack stunk to high heaven from the git-go. Don’t blame Trump since he is entirely dependent on his advisors on matters like this (Real estate moguls not real knowledgeable about chemical weapons and military matters; see nuclear triad).

Know we had virtually no intelligence on Syria as late as 2007 and doubt this has changed much. Presume we get what we have from Israel and other actors with an agenda.

Blair S.

That is essentially what I know from my own sources; I see no reason why Assad, who is quite popular with the minorities including Christians and Druze, most Shi’ite sects, and even Kurds, would risk everything to kill 03 civilians in a town of no importance.

: Dark Matter

Jerry,

This item came to my attention last week:

http://www.wired.co.uk/article/dark-matter-bridge

In response:

It’s well established that on an intergalactic scale, most of the matter in the universe appears to be on the surface of “cells” that are reminiscent of bubbles or foam in the early universe, and appear as filaments in projection onto the field of view.

This is a 17 year old press release on the subject:

http://www.cfht.hawaii.edu/News/Lensing/

The result reported below appears to be a very localized precision measurement of one of the “filaments.”

That said, there is an increasing amount of evidence (of analysis) that the fewer approximations made in a general relativistic model, the less that model supports a requirement for dark matter. On the other hand, it seems increasingly evident to me that GR is a classical approximation to a quantum reality which does not involve or require real distortions of spacetime – such apparent distortions are mathematical artifacts of GR as a model of gravity. On the gripping hand, it’s not immediately apparent to me (from intuition, not from reading any of them, so take this with a grain of salt) that the GR models are properly accounting for whatever phenomenology resulted in the foam-like structure of the macroscopic universe. And on the other gripping hand (wait…) the article below appears to confirm a level of gravitational lensing not consistent with the luminous mass of the filament, which would appear to be a localized measurement confirming localized dark matter.

This is the original press release associated with the Wired article:

http://www.ras.org.uk/news-and-press/2975-waterloo-researchers-capture-first-image-of-a-dark-matter-web-that-connects-galaxies

And – Monthly Notices is publicizing the article by allowing free downloads:

https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/468/3/2605/3059154/The-weak-lensing-masses-of-filaments-between

If I am reading this right – on a skim of the press releases and the conclusion of the paper – this means that there is an apparently dark matter filament of mass 1.6E13 x the mass of the sun (at 5 standard deviations; this is 20 times the mass of the Milky Way galaxy) connecting two visible galaxies that are 40 million light years apart. 

In other words, the article asserts that a localized concentration of dark matter has been detected. This is something that likely would not be consistent with “alternate interpretations” based on whole universe modeling 

Assuming this is repeatable and confirmed by observations of other filaments (one five sigma observation is not sufficient for conclusions of this type), it would make something that has the properties of dark matter an observed reality.  What it is, of course, remains to be determined.

Jim Woosley

A matter of some importance, and evidence to boot. I have great respect for Dr. Woosley’s judgment.

Free markets, health care, etc.

Allan E. Johnson described a foul deed done by Aspen Pharmacare and closed his comment with this:

“Whatever arguments can be made for the virtues of a free market, I don’t think any such market can be claimed to exist when a company can place the lives of its customers in danger unless they pay whatever price the company sets.”

When a company can set any price it pleases, then it is not operating in a free market, by definition. As you have frequently declared, in an unrestricted free market, anything and everything can and will be traded, including human flesh. That Aspen Pharmacare has done this thing cannot legitimately be laid to the charge of the free market, but rather to the evil that lurks in the hearts of men.

Richard White

Del Valle, Texas

 

Freedom and ethics

Dear Doctor Pournelle,

Once again, reportedly, someone SOMEwhere, has used freedom in some way to gain an advantage . Alert the media that human nature is pretty much what it always has been.

It may be ethically reprehensible for a pharmaceutical company to pull from the market effective and safe proprietary DRUGS IN order to reduce competition for a newer drug and even increase its’ price, as the London Times has reportedly alleged some company has done. A free market allows unethical actions, as Dr. Pournelle has more than once pointed out. If this behavior is so troubling, perhaps a movement could be started to solicit millions to billions of Dollars, Euros or Renminbao to buy the drug patents for the old drugs, and produce them in sufficient quantities and sell them at cost. I support such an effort. Or perhaps you can lobby your legislature, President for life, Dear Leader or absolute monarch to do so on behalf of the world, or at the least for your own citizens. Go for it. But whining that someone somewhere has done something you find offensive, however legal, is merely the sound of a five year old who WANTS it, but has no idea how to GET it in any way other than to have it handed to them, preferably with a spoon and nanny.

There will always be horror stories. If you turned the production and distribution of these drugs over to a government agency, do you believe there would be total fairness?

? Does Mr. Alan E, Johnson have such faith in the judgment of government bureaucrats, concerned as much with the construction and maintenance of their little empires as any corporate bureaucrat with theirs?

I might also point out, though I do not know, that the new drug is probably more effective. Or safer, or otherwise an improvement over the older ones, else why was it developed, and presumably at great cost?

Everyone wants new, more effective and safer drugs. It’s like the old children’s tale of the Little Red Hen. All the barnyard animals want a slice of fresh baked bread, but none except the Little Red Hen are willing to do the work to have it. Paying for new drugs is the equivalent of doing the work to have them. Drug researchers and testers are not slaves, and want to be fairly, even lavishly, compensated for their sixty hour work weeks and years without vacations. Not to mention their decade or so of higher education, usually resulting in six figure debt to some government agency all too willing to send goon squads to ones domicile should you miss a few student loan payments.

The difference between the Crazy party and the Stupid is that the Crazies won’t even discuss such matters. They just want the Magic Want Of Other People’s Money.

Ah well, I suppose soon enough the Robots will pay for all of us, and the Entidled (sic) may sit about like the character’s in Philip Jose’

Farmers classic award winning story “Riders of the Purple Wage”, playing endless games of Gin Rummy and waiting for the next hand out.

Fine with me, as I will do my best to see that my descendants live free under sfar suns, rather than sit with Mr. Johnson’s to grow fat and shout “GIN!”

Petronius

Re: United Airlines Passenger Incident(s)

Jerry,

Further perspective and perhaps information on that United Airlines passenger incident, some of which might have come your way already. 

In contrast to first reports the flight was not overbooked. Instead the airline wanted to move employees around to staff flights the following day. Bumping customers off flights to accommodate moving employees certainly makes one’s attitude toward customers a little clearer.

United Airlines says controversial flight was not overbooked; CEO apologizes again

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2017/04/11/united-ceo-employees-followed-procedures-flier-belligerent/100317166/

It seems that in negotiations to avoid additional Federal rules United Airlines boasted that ticketed passengers are guaranteed seats.

United Airlines Promised Federal Regulators That All Ticketed Passengers Are Guaranteed Seats

http://www.ibtimes.com/political-capital/united-airlines-promised-federal-regulators-all-ticketed-passengers-are-guaranteed

This passenger on United Airlines the week before the passenger dragging was threatened with being put in handcuffs and forcibly removed from the aircraft to make room for another deemed somehow more worthy. Note that this was on United Airlines itself, not a subsidiary, which in the case of the dragging incident some are claiming to mean United isn’t at fault. Sounds like a corporate-wide culture, though.

United passenger threatened with handcuffs to make room for ‘higher-priority’ traveler

http://www.latimes.com/business/lazarus/la-fi-lazarus-united-low-priority-passenger-20170412-story.html

This frequent long time traveler asserts that before boarding passengers are subject to Rule 25, which allows bumping, but after boarding passengers become subject to Rule 21, and Rule 21 only allows a passenger to be removed for security or safety reasons. Some out there defending the airline claim that refusing any order makes you a threat, a claim that is absurd. Declining to be bumped when not legally required to accept does not make you a threat. 

Why United is in Legal Trouble Over Removing a Passenger

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/04/why-united-is-in-legal-trouble-over-removing-a-passenger/

This might be the most significant thing to come of the fiasco. From the Duffel Blog! ☺

Pentagon awards contract to United Airlines to forcibly remove Assad

http://www.duffelblog.com/2017/04/pentagon-awards-contract-united-airlines-forcibly-remove-assad/

Sorry about the cold. Hope this finds you and Roberta further on the mend.

Regards,

George

I am glad I am not a United investor. I got out of airlines a long time ago.

And I’m about of energy. Good night.

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.

Friday, April 14, 2017

The map is not the territory.

Alfred Korzybski

If a foreign government had imposed this system of education on the United States, we would rightfully consider it an act of war.

Glenn T. Seaborg, National Commission on Education, 1983

If you establish a democracy, you must in due time reap the fruits of a democracy. You will in due season have great impatience of public burdens, combined in due season with great increase of public expenditure. You will in due season have wars entered into from passion and not from reason;

Benjamin Disraeli

It has not been a great week: tax time, and a resurgence of my mild cold, and between them a great depletion of energy along with consumption of time. The IRS has invented more forms to use up our time, particularly the self-employed, while the print seems to get smaller and the instructions more complex every year.

I’ll start with this:

 

OMB asks for help to drain the swamp

Hi Jerry:

This is like a dream come true–I’m really encouraged.  OMB is actually soliciting suggestions from the general public as to which agencies, regulations, etc. could be eliminated.  Sounds like a great opportunity to bring up the Bunny Inspectors as well as a few hundred other possibilities.  Your idea about having all business regulations which are based on number of employees to double the number of employees would be another good one to submit.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/reorganizing-the-executive-branch

The deadline is June 12, so almost two months to get all the ideas in.

My pet peeve is the militarization of seemingly every cabinet department, forming their own SWAT teams, acquiring fleets of armored vehicles and arsenals of weapons.  This has lead to numerous horrible episodes such as a Department of Education SWAT team breaking down the door of a house where they thought a person who had defaulted on student loans lived, only to find out that the person had not lived there for months.  I guess they needed the practice or something.

I don’t know why these departments can’t just utilize local law enforcement or FBI field offices as needed, rather than having their own independent forces.

I’d also like to know what was behind Homeland Security’s order for 1.6 billion rounds of handgun ammo (100 year’s supply) a couple of years ago. 

I hope this effort is more effective than filing complaints with the Do Not Call registry.  Time will tell.

Best regards,

Doug Ely

 

I urge you to flood them with real and sincere recommendations. Yes, I’ve sent mine, but I don’t have great confidence that they are getting to the people I send them to. It’s a beehive back there, and everyone I know has a palace guard determined to keep people from bothering their bosses. When I was Newt’s science advisor it was simple enough to get to him when he was Minority Whip; I just walked into his Capitol office, appointment or not. But when he became speaker, I couldn’t get a message to him, at least not reliably or in a timely manner. If I was in Washington I could walk into his office – the staff all knew me – and sit at his desk until he came in, which assured a few minutes and sometimes more, but that was in the last century; after 9/11 you can’t just walk into the Capitol and linger. Now the Palace Guards rule everywhere. Pity, but there it is.

Anyway: bunny inspectors in the Dept. of Agriculture are certainly doing a job that need not be done, at least not by Federal agents. Agriculture for some reason has the job of insuring that stage magicians who use rabbits in their act have a license to do so, and that they follow Federally mandated rules for caring for those rabbits. I wish I were kidding about this, but I am not. It is so absurd that no one takes it seriously, and the savings cannot be all that much – I am not sure how many bunny inspectors there are. But there are a number of them. And they have supervisors. In the 50 States, there must be as many as ten districts, each with a senior civil servant supervisor, and perhaps a half dozen agents, and secretaries, and I have never met anyone who believes this is a job for the Federal Government. If the States want to regulate back yard rabbit pens – yes, you need a Federal license to sell pet rabbits (although apparently not if you sell them to be eaten). I wonder that the bunny inspectors don’t die of shame when telling people what they do for a living, and I suspect their children don’t admire them much; but there it is. If we need that sort of regulation, surely it is best left to the States? Or counties, or cities, or towns. I am sure there are local politicians with in-law relatives who would love to have such a high prestige job. Let city councils and county supervisors worry about the bunnies.

A more serious proposal (although I do not mean that abolishing the absurd office of Bunny Inspector is not serious):

If you want more people working, make it simpler to hire them. Exempt more small businesses from regulations. Double the exemption numbers. That is, if a regulation stipulates that it applies only to firms with ten or more employees, make that number 20. If 9 make it 18. I would go further, and double exemptions up to 99 employees; certainly, up to 50. There are a lot of businesses that might expand were the regulations not so expensive and/or oppressive. This simple exemption would let tens of thousands of firms hire more people, and would cost not very much. It could be passed in a week by Congress, but a Presidential Executive Order could accomplish a lot.

I used to have a list of Federal Jobs that don’t need doing; I probably could think of more, but those examples ought to be enough for a start.

 

I have often mentioned the expansion of armed Federal Agents, some indistinguishable from military units. We have no need of that. It would be cheaper and more effective to use local police for most Federal actions, and cheaper as well. What with Sanctuary Cities that may be a bit difficult to get across in these times, but there is no question that the Federal Government has too many armed agents.

As to Homeland Security’s purchase of a billion rounds of ammunition, maybe they need to go after a rogue baggage inspector?

The Dark Secret at the Heart of AI

The Dark Secret at the Heart of AI

No one really knows how the most advanced algorithms do what they do. That could be a problem.

by Will Knight https://www.technologyreview.com/profile/will-knight/ April 11, 2017
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/604087/the-dark-secret-at-the-heart-of-ai/?set=604130

I have long said that by 2024, half the jobs in America can be done by a robot costing no more than a year’s salary of the human now doing that job. After reading this article I am inclined to raise that percentage.

In 2015, a research group at Mount Sinai Hospital in New York was inspired to apply deep learning to the hospital’s vast database of patient records. This data set features hundreds of variables on patients, drawn from their test results, doctor visits, and so on. The resulting program, which the researchers named Deep Patient, was trained using data from about 700,000 individuals, and when tested on new records, it proved incredibly good at predicting disease. Without any expert instruction, Deep Patient had discovered patterns hidden in the hospital data that seemed to indicate when people were on the way to a wide range of ailments, including cancer of the liver. There are a lot of methods that are “pretty good” at predicting disease from a patient’s records, says Joel Dudley, who leads the Mount Sinai team. But, he adds, “this was just way better.”

More and more people are arguing that as robots increase productivity, we must consider giving a basic living salary to all citizens (which is certain to mean all residents and their children, citizen, legal alien, undocumented alien, and illegal alien). Do we reconsider the difference between “deserving poor” and “Undeserving poor”? And who decides? Those who produce nothing, and whose contribution is to consume? What will they consume? What can they do that anyone wants done? I can think of people now who do things I don’t want done. Will there be more of those? If we can afford more bunny inspectors will we hire them?

Science fiction has skimmed across this, but the robot economy is coming faster than we thought. Note that robots are better – sometimes by a lot – at diagnosing future cancer than the best doctors. Now. Already. And they can’t tell you how they do it.

Subject: Here is your laugh for the day!

http://www.salon.com/2017/04/12/watch-5-reasons-maxine-waters-should-be-our-next-president/?utm_source=Salon+Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=98687d8215-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_04_11&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_5deda2aaa7-98687d8215-303274245

David Couvillon
Colonel, U.S. Marine Corps Reserve, Retired.; 
Former Governor of Wasit Province, Iraq; 
Righter of Wrongs; Wrong most of the time; 
Distinguished Expert, TV remote control; 
Chef de Hot Dog Excellence;  Avoider of Yard Work

United passenger drug off flight

He paid for the service, he had a right to expect it. A united pilot called into Rush today saying flying is a privilege and that they could not tolerate belligerent passenger because of 9/11. 9/11 was caused by trained terrorists which I’m sure were very docile up until they started slitting throats. In the case of terrorism, belligerent passengers are probably an asset. And united sells services not privilege. I shall not be flying united any time soon.

—

Phil Tharp

 

How Algorithms and Authoritarianism Created a Corporate Nightmare at United.

<http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2017/04/algorithmic-dystopia.html>

—————————————

Roland Dobbins

 

 

And see below on artificial intelligence.

 

 

 

yeah…

…and this is aside from things like the robustness of the equipment, the ecological damage caused by e.g. solar collection mirror systems frying birds, or windmill farms killing birds and/or diverting migratory paths, and other adverse effects, such as how windmill farms create such turbulence that no radar — military, civilian aircraft, weather — can get any sort of reading within an active farm.

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/opinion/2017/04/12/renewable-energy/100343640/

Renewable energy myths abound http://www.detroitnews.com Numerous myths are perpetuated that are not supported by any fair reading of the available data

~Stephanie Osborn, “The Interstellar Woman of Mystery”

http://www.Stephanie-Osborn.com

Award-winning author of the Division One, Gentleman Aegis, and Displaced Detective series

health care

Dear Mr. Pournelle,
Since the argument has been made that money is the best, and sufficient, way to allocate health care, you might be interested in this article from today’s (London) Times:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/drug-giant-s-secret-plan-to-destroy-cancer-medicine-75rg6wt2n
It appears that Aspen Pharmacare, having bought the rights to five cancer medications, considered destroying existing stocks of a medication used to treat leukemia as a way of increasing the price “by up to 4,000 percent.” There appears to be evidence that the company orchestrated shortages in other ways: one Italian distributor reported that it “was having to choose which of two families with a child suffering from cancer was to receive the sole package they had because of a deliberately small supply.”
Whatever arguments can be made for the virtues of a free market, I don’t think any such market can be claimed to exist when a company can place the lives of its customers in danger unless they pay whatever price the company sets.
Yours,
Allan E. Johnson

 

I do not think many would disagree, but those who do would argue that it is their property and they should be free to destroy it. I recall during the Depression milk poured out on the ground, and eggs being destroyed; small pigs being killed; all by order of the Federal Government trying to end the Depression by raising prices. And yes, it did happen.

 

During the Great Depression of the 1930s, agricultural price support programs led to vast amounts of food being deliberately destroyed at a time when malnutrition was a serious problem in the United States…. For example, the federal government bought 6 million hogs in 1933 alone and destroyed them. Huge amounts of farm produce were plowed under, in order to keep it off the market and maintain prices at the officially fixed level, and vast amounts of milk were poured down the sewers for the same reason. Meanwhile, many American children were suffering from diseases caused by malnutrition.^{[16] [}

Thomas Sowell

Dark Matter “Bridge” Interesting article at the Wired website. It’s headline basically says that galaxies are connected by a “bridge” of dark matter.
The article is at: http://www.wired.co.uk/article/dark-matter-bridge
There was also an article about a dark matter galaxy: http://www.wired.co.uk/article/dark-matter-galaxy-dragonflies-44
Happy reading!

David

I keep hearing alternative physics theories that do not require dark matter or dark energy, but they are well beyond my expertise. I grew up with the poem

The other day upon the stair
I saw a man who wasn’t there.
He wasn’t there again today.
Oh how I wish he’d go away.

We were taught that as a sort of algorithm, and it stuck with me; matter that you can never see and doesn’t exist anywhere near us seems strange to me; a bit hard to believe.

Air intel and Syria, and TLAM

Dr. Pournelle,
In partial response to one of my speculations, you wrote that you’d argue with my “…assumptions regarding our intelligence services. Some may be more competent in persuasion than they are in finding evidence.”
Perhaps. Yet it is my experience that the political and politically motivated representatives of the misnamed “intelligence community” in DC are not the same as the military tactical intelligence troops and commanders in the field (who are, incidentally, substantially less leaky). Long term observation and recording of the battlespace is well within the capabilities of all of our military services, and the tactical and logistics intelligence gathered thereby are from a professional cadre of well trained enlisted, commissioned, and (unfortunately) civilian contractor technicians with a primary interest in supporting military operations and not on beltway infighting. Can’t say that politics is not involved, but at that tier of intelligence gathering and interpretation, I’ll put my money on the E3 who is producing reviewing the imagery and the 05 planning and evaluating the strike (both likely USN, lest anyone’s anti-USAF bias gain influence).
Just FYI, TLAM has demonstrated an excellent runway damage capability in publicly released information from as much as 20 years ago. The very dated linked video puff piece shows some of that capability in testing at about 40 second mark: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8sa7ZX58Kk4
The best use of a limited number of those would not be on a taxi way, but to damage large sections of the runway. If one had a lot of them, then taxiways are a good target, but better to use penetrators to take out sheltered aircraft and stored munitions, and HE to take out un-hardened targets. In the videos shown on the internet, with my less-than-well-trained-or-current skills, I saw very little runway and no obvious munitions storage structures. All I’ve seen was apparently infrared or low-quality, thermally-enhanced imagery, and has little detail. Damage to a “cold” aircraft structure was hard to spot, and had little resolution. I could not identify exactly what was burning at the hot spots, and they weren’t in frame for very long.
Of course, I’m not doing this professionally, and I don’t play an imagery analyst on TV. I have no evaluation of the provenance of the video, although I have some ex-professional opinions on the image quality. Mostly, it hasn’t been worth the short time I’ve invested in it: we need a pithy acronym for Just Another Fake News Story.
Best wishes to you and yours,
-d

Mostly I don’t believe Assad had motive to use sarin to kill 83 civilians; he could get that many with a platoon of light armor and a French 75, with far fewer consequences. I think Trump was taken in by a false flag operation and his family’s tears. He asked what he could do.

When the President realized what message that strike would have on Xi in his relations with North Korea, he simply did not listen to more false flag arguments. The strike was in fact pretty good foreign policy, although the Mother of All Bombs was even more so. That is a Machiavellian policy I can admire if not advocate. Minimal casualties, maximum effect; and if you’re going to do it. do it right. Check. No small injuries.

A fresh Diatribe for 20170413

Islam permits, encourages, and regulates slavery. So why should we be surprised to see it returning to Libya now that Obama took away the government that was preventing this stuff? Of course, our lefties are so ideologically headcrammed into holes in the ground they’ll never believe this is happening.

Libya: African migrants sold as slaves in slave markets https://www.jihadwatch.org/2017/04/libya-african-migrants-sold-as-slaves-in-slave-markets

The regulation on slavery amounts to something very close to “do what you want but don’t destroy it’s value.” Sometimes brutality improves the value of the slaves to the Muslims. For example, blacks taken in slavery to Saudi Arabia and other Arabic Peninsula nations were routinely castrated so that they would not contaminate Muslim women. In this case young children were brutalized while grooming them for the sex slave market – in Britain.

UK: Muslim rape gang in court over 170 charges of sexual exploitation of 18 children https://www.jihadwatch.org/2017/04/uk-muslim-rape-gang-in-court-over-170-charges-of-sexual-exploitation-of-18-children

They were captured off the UK streets. Therefore they were slaves. And, anything goes. Isn’t ANYBODY going to do something to stop this? Has the UK completely lost it’s moral compass? Has Europe as a whole lost it’s moral compass? It hurts to read this sort of news and then see nobody who can and should do something about it move off their backsides and actually do something constructive.

{o.o}

And perhaps that’s enough for the day.

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.