Liberty and Security and Rational Discussion

Chaos Manor View, Monday, June 01, 2015

The Nebula Awards are in Chicago at the end of this week – not last week as I mistakenly said – so I had breakfast with Larry Niven Sunday, and he won’t get his Grand Master award for a couple of days. And I am typing worse than ever.

NSA spying

I fully expect a comment on your blog about Rand Paul’s efforts on this matter.

B-

This is one of several emails I have on this subject. The question is complex, and complicated by actions we have taken in the last two decades. It’s made more complicated because while I am recovering from the stroke, my typing is still very slow and I have many corrections to make in each sentence. I think that will improve when I get an actual office chair in here rather than this wheel chair which is the wrong height. Or I think so. I will do an essay on liberty and security, but I fear it may take a few days.

The Patriot Act needs some revisions, and the effect of all this (http://time.com/3902801/rand-paul-nsa-phone-patriot-act/ ) will be more on the Republican nomination than long term on NSA. Just what records do we keep, and should the government keep them? Phone records have long been kept by the phone companies. It is all part of the liberty vs. security question in the new technological age.

Ian Bremmer says America is no longer ‘indispensable’, and that’s bad news for Britain – Telegraph

Jerry:

This interview and the book might interest you.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/11640302/Exclusive-interview-Ian-Bremmer-says-America-is-no-longer-indispensible-and-thats-bad-news-for-Britain.html

I present this to you in context of our ongoing debate over destroying ISIS.

My emerging, militant neo-isolationism is in part motivated by a recognition of the new realities that Mr. Bremmer articulates far better than I can. I think your lingering anger at Bush and his neo-con advisers blinds you to the profound incompetency, perhaps intentional, of the Obama administration and how severe the damage has been.

The fact that Bush made some blunders during the invasion of Iraq is indisputable. However; given what we now know about the corruption in the Iraq oil for food program and the ongoing surrender to Iran’s nuclear ambitions to appease Russia, China and our European “allies,” there is no plausible scenario that would not have resulted in: Saddam or a Baathist successor remaining in power, the sanctions being lifted, and Iraq reconstituting it’s nuclear weapons program. Bush corrected his mistakes by allying the US with Sunni moderates and implementing the surge. When Bush left office, Iraq was on a path of stable evolution towards some semblance of a secular democracy provided that the US was willing to maintain a stabilizing long term military presence just as we did in Europe after WW-2.

Obama betrayed the Sunnis as well as the Kurds by refusing to negotiate a status of forces agreement that would have kept Iraq stable. Obama then betrayed Mubarak who had been a US ally for three decades by inciting the Arab Spring uprising. General Sissi has restored a semblance of sanity to Egypt and has allied with Israel, but he will never trust the US again. Obama also betrayed Daffy Gadaffy had surrendered his WMD to Bush and Condi Rice by supporting pro to-ISIS rebels against him. The video of Gadaffy being sodomized with a bayonet will ensure that no dictator will ever trust the US to negotiate a departure from power or surrender their WMD. Assad might make a deal with Israel, but he will never do so with America.

My point here is that Obama has inflicted so much damage to US power and credibility that even if a competent campaign could be waged against ISIS (not possible while the poverty pimp from Chicago remains in the oval office), the result will be only a short term gain. Given Obama’s fecklessness, the Kurds would be no more likely to trust the US or support US policy than ISIS. With ISIS defeated, most of Iraq will inevitably become a province of the emerging, nuclear armed, Persian empire.

I understand that if ISIS is permitted to exist, ISIS is likely to wage a nuclear 9-11 against the US. However; even if ISIS is destroyed, one or more of the other emerging nuclear powers will launch a nuclear 9-11. While a nuclear 9-11 would be traumatic, it would be survivable. Continued US interventionism with someone as imbecilic as Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush or Lindsey Graham as President will not be survivable. We need to retreat, now!

James Crawford=

And we have this comment on an earlier post::

Caliphate

In response to Mr. Crawford, please direct him to the map of the Umayyid Caliphate: 

http://islamiccoins.ancients.info/umayyads/umayyadhistory.htm

ISIS has stated as much that they wish to expand beyond these previous conquests.  

s/f

Couv

David Couvillon
Colonel, U.S. Marine Corps Reserve, Retired.; 
Former Governor of Wasit Province, Iraq; 
Righter of Wrongs; Wrong most of the time; 
Distinguished Expert, TV remote control; 
Chef de Hot Dog Excellance;  Avoider of Yard Work

Can we avoid involvement in the territorial disputes of the Near East, and how do we restore the reputation of the United States? Mr. Crawford is correct: after the Libya disaster, it has become clear that giving up your nuclear weapons and knuckling under to the US will not save you. Idi Amin Dada managed to live in exile with the help of Khadafy, then Saudi Arabia; but that was before the destruction of Libya.

I do not lightly advocate another US involvement in Iraq, and soon the question will be moot: given enough time, the destruction of the Caliphate would require a war effort that the people of the US would never support.

A sitting US Senator proposes criminalizing dissent on ‘climate change’.

<http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-fossil-fuel-industrys-campaign-to-mislead-the-american-people/2015/05/29/04a2c448-0574-11e5-8bda-c7b4e9a8f7ac_story.html>

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Roland Dobbins

Any discussion of liberty and freedom must take account of this: the temptation to win debates by silencing the opponent is near irresistible when you are a True Believer. The noblest of sentiments may be refuted if their bearer is beaten to death with a rubber truncheon, said Goering; and there are those who believe strongly that the Global Warming debate is more important than the Bill of Rights and rational debate.

There are many other topics which are so offensive to influential groups that they simply cannot be discussed: to bring up the topic in Injustice and must be suppressed.

You may find these worth looking at.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/story-tom-ligon?trk=hp-feed-article-title

http://www.tomligon.com/Writing/Sparkof1812.pdf

http://www.wsj.com/articles/notable-quotable-1431124660

John DeChancie sends this

My new Castle Perilous novel is out–THE PIRATES OF PERILOUS. It’s the ninth of the series, but it reads like the first, with a bit of backstory.

The Pirates of Perilous (Castle Perilous Series) (Volume 9)

The Pirates of Perilous (Castle Perilous Series) (Volume 9) The Pirates of Perilous (Castle Perilous Series) (Volume 9) [John DeChancie] on Amazon.com. *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. The long-awaited 9th book in the beloved CASTLE PERILOUS fantasy series. Castle Perilous is a dangerous place to live. But some of its Guests are dange…
View on www.amazon.com	Preview by Yahoo

There are fans waiting for this in paper. The Kindle version will be out later in the year.

jd

From a physicist friend; a list of sources on climate technology uncertainty.

Subject: Several articles of technical interest

https://www.google.com/#q=error+analysis+climate+modeling

https://www.google.com/#q=Uncertainty+analysis+in+climate

https://www.google.com/#q=uncertainty+analysis+in+climate+change+assessments

See particularly

http://www.stat.washington.edu/peter/statclim/fyfeetal.pdf

Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years

http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/assets/osgc/OSGC-000-000-019-903.pdf

Uncertainty analysis in climate change assessments

(which appears to be the manuscript of the article shown at the end of the above pdf) and includes the following “box”:

BOX 1
Recommendations to improve uncertainty quantification
· Replace qualitative assessments of uncertainty with quantitative ones
· Reduce uncertainties in trend estimates for climate observations and
projections through use of modern statistical methods for spatio-temporal data
· Increase the accuracy with which the climate is monitored by combining
various sources of information using hierarchical statistical models
· Reduce uncertainties in climate change projections by applying experimental
design to make more efficient use of computational resources
· Quantify changes in the likelihood of extreme weather events in a manner
more useful to decision makers by using methods based on the statistical
theory of extreme values
· Include at least one author with expertise in uncertainty analysis on all
chapters of IPCC and U.S. national assessments

with Dr. Curry’s commentary

http://judithcurry.com/2013/08/30/inadequate-uncertainty-analysis-in-climate-change-assessments/

and the absurd (and contradictory of the above) contention

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/02/150202114636.htm

Global warming slowdown: No systematic errors in climate models, comprehensive statistical analysis reveals

(abstract only; did not attack paywall when abstract so obviously nonsensical)

Plus this fundamental statistical paper

http://www.climateaccess.org/sites/default/files/Katz_Techniques%20for%20Estimating%20Uncertainty.pdf

I am trying to find fundamental papers on numerical solution which address the synergistic effects between data errors and computational errors, but those for some reason appear to be difficult to find.

Here are more technical papers . 

I do not claim that these are particularly readable.  I have done advanced studies in statistical theory, but I haven’t done this sort of work in decades. 

From the Washington Post

Microsoft’s all-new Windows 10 debuts on July 29 (WP)

By Hayley Tsukayama June 1 at 10:51 AM

Microsoft announced Monday that Windows 10 will be available for sale for July 29. Most people — especially Microsoft diehards — won’t have to buy a copy next month, however. The company’s offering free upgrades to most devices currently running Windows 7, Windows 8.1 and Windows Phone 8.1.

Qualifying Microsoft customers can register to get their free July upgrade right now; instructions are on Microsoft’s Web site.

Users will be upgraded to the corresponding version of Windows that they already have. For example, if you have Windows 7 Home Basic or Home Premium, you’ll be upgraded to Windows 10 Home. If you have Windows 7 Professional or Ultimate, you’ll be upgraded to Windows 10 Pro.

So what do you get from the new system? For one, you get Microsoft’s Cortana voice assistant, which is able to schedule your appointments, send your messages and will be able to interact with your Windows, Android or iOS phone. The company has also included features that will make it easier to pass information between a PC and a Windows Phone.

Microsoft also ditched its long-time, much-hated browser, Internet Explorer in the new system in favor of a browser called “Microsoft Edge.” The browser is faster from stem-to-stern, and also includes an annotation feature that lets you type or write on Web pages if you want to keep notes.

The company has also updated its music, video,  photos, mail, calendar and contact apps. It’s also added an Xbox app, which will let a user’s PC and Xbox game console communicate more closely; gamers will be able to stream games from their Xbox One to PCs in their homes. The upgrade also comes with new versions of OneNote and Outlook; upgraded versions of Word, Excel and PowerPoint will be sold separately.

This will be a major launch for  Microsoft, which is looking to shed its image as a plodding giant in favor a friendlier, more nimble company that plays nice with gadgets and programs made by competitors such as Apple, Samsung and Google. It’s also focusing more on offering services rather than products, so Windows 10 will be constantly updated like mobile operating systems, or Apple’s OS X, rather the familiar release model of putting a finished product on a CD and meddling with it very little until the next major update.

That change may have enabled Microsoft to accelerate its timeline — new Windows updates have tended to come in the fall, as of late — but also means that some features won’t be a part of the initial Windows 10 release. For example, as Ars Technica reported, features such as extension support for the new Edge browser won’t be coming until a later update.

If you’re interested in upgrading your own computer, you can do so from your own Windows 7 or Windows 8.1 computer by clicking on the small Windows icon on the lower right-hand side of your toolbar, which takes you to the “Get Windows 10” app. (The app should show up automatically on qualifying machines to which you have administrative privileges.) The same app should give you confirmation that your reservation went through.

You can cancel your upgrade at any time before the system launches, and you will also be able  to get the upgrade even if you don’t reserve a copy ahead of time — but  Microsoft says this is “easiest way” to get Windows 10.

It’s sure got to be better than Windows 8

Freedom is not free. Free men are not equal. Equal men are not free.